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February 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 11

AZ Greg

Member
360 will probably take the crown in NA. Fantastic achievement for MS.

While I do agree about it being a great achievement, it will have taken a year early launch and probably a full year into the WiiU replacing the Wii as Nintendo's primary console. And that isn't even factoring in the lackluster support the Wii got during its final couple years.
 
4k out on my 360 prediction, nice! MS should be happy with 302k, a small decline YoY shouldn't hurt too much and 41% is a good marketshare. Now how much of the remaining 59% do the other three get?
 
I wonder if Durango or PS4 will knock off the 360 from the #1 spot this Fall.

If not then, maybe 3DS? Or a major WiiU comeback? Or a PSV comeback (lol)? Or a PS3 price drop with no 360 price drop in the same month?

Wii was the top selling console among PS3, 360, and Wii for 23 straight months. However, in those 23 straight months, it outsold #2 each month by a combined by 7.1m, whereas for the 25 previous months of 360 being #1, it outsold #2 each month by a combined 4.4m. Also, the overall market is down in 360's top period than it was in Wii's top period. In Wii's 23 straight #1 months, it sold 16.6m, whereas in 360's 26 straight #1 months, it has sold 13.1m, for comparison.

So MS has been top dog longer than Nintendo this gen? Weird gen indeed, would never have guessed.

Very interesting stat, I'm actually kind of curious if the same thing holds true for Japan, i.e. the PS3 led for more weeks, but the weeks the Wii led the gaps are much bigger.

Holding 41 percent share of current-generation console sales, Xbox 360 sold 302,000 units

40.5 - 41.5% so
PS3 + Wii + WiiU(?) = 427-443k
 
...Effectively, 41% being referred to PS3, Wii and Wii U could mean Wii U is higher than expected. In the case, that Gamasutra report would become pretty interesting for analysing next January NPD datas.
Depends on how the remainder breaks down. 65-75K Wii U would be something of a grey area.
 

DaBoss

Member
Proving that 50k WiiU's were returned is kinda a bit of a holy shit really. You can't buy the "all from scalpers" slant, so thats a lot of ill will and dissatisfaction for a new platform.

I don't think 50K scalpers returned Wii Us, that seems like too much, but I would think it is possible a lot of the scalpers did return it. They had nothing to lose if they were to buy lots of them to sell them at a higher price, and when they discovered that they couldn't do that, they would return it.
 
http://venturebeat.com/2013/03/14/f...-top-spot-crysis-3-cant-outpace-call-of-duty/

Gamers spent a total of $810 million on video game software, hardware, and accessories in February.

Financial analysis firm The NPD Group released its report for the second month of 2013, and the industry continues to shrink. Although, it’s important to note that these figures only track the sales of new physical games and not used or digitally downloaded titles.

“When you consider our preliminary estimate for other physical format sales in February such as used and rentals at $90 million,” NPD analyst Liam Callahan said. “And our estimates for digital format sales including full game and downloadable content including microtransactions, subscriptions, mobile apps, and the consumer spend on social network games at $319 million, we would estimate the total consumer spend in February to be just under $1.2 billion.”

We’ll examine how the well each system sold, but first, let’s do the software sales for February:

...
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
I don't think 50K scalpers returned Wii Us, that seems like too much, but I would think it is possible a lot of the scalpers did return it. They had nothing to lose if they were to buy lots of them to sell them at a higher price, and when they discovered that they couldn't do that, they would return it.

Oh not disputing a good percentage is scalper returns, but January returns is also "unwanted Christmas present" returns month.

Hopefully more numbers will be up soon, because we didnt get any Wii numbers last month to see what the hell is going on with that dying platform.
 

Bruno MB

Member
This thread is having a lot of movement, anticipation is really high for this month's NPD.

I'm really curious about 3DS numbers.

Edit: So no Fire Emblem in top 10.

Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time charting is very surprising.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Quotes:
NPD Analyst Liam Callahan said:
“Though there was the same number of February launches that landed in the top ten ranking this year as there were last February, collectively, February 2013 new launches performed worse than last year with unit sales down 30%.”

“Looking at hardware sales on an average per week basis, all platforms showed an increase from January into February. Specifically, new platforms like the Wii U and PS Vita demonstrated some momentum from the typical January hardware lull with increases of over 40% and 30% respectively.”
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Oh right, panic over, MGR above Aliens. Dead Space 3 taking top feels BIZARRE though.
 

DaBoss

Member
Oh not disputing a good percentage is scalper returns, but January returns is also "unwanted Christmas present" returns month.

Hopefully more numbers will be up soon, because we didnt get any Wii numbers last month to see what the hell is going on with that dying platform.

Yea, that is true.


So most Metal Gear fans are on the PS3, makes sense.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Sly in top 10 but no Fire Emblem? Strange indeed. Maybe Sly did more than we could think of?
 

donny2112

Member
Very interesting stat,

I'm thinking the 38/41 for Wii @ #1 followed immediately by 360 getting 31/32 @ #1 is possibly the more interesting one. Complete changing of the guard. Basically no waffling/transition period. Assuming 360 is #1 the rest of this year, it'll be 41/42 by the end of 2013, too.

I'm actually kind of curious if the same thing holds true for Japan, i.e. the PS3 led for more weeks, but the weeks the Wii led the gaps are much bigger.

Probably just a matter of finding the right SQL ...
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
79k for WiiU? Er... oops. Looks like I was too early to be positive! OH DEAR.
 
Minimum of 64K.
If it is per week basis then 45% increase would be 66K.

50% would be 68K

I would expect the wording would be over 45% though if it was.

65K is probably a good estimate to go with.

Vita is between 36.5 and 37.8 so I'd say 37K is probably a good estimate.
 
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