As much as I love Nintendo (which is to say A LOT!) I sadly think that the Wii U will be a second GameCube. Which is not to say that the GameCube sold badly, but it sucks nontheless.
I will enjoy the first party output from Nintendo and its partners, I will enjoy most of the 3rd party output on it and I will enjoy the Virtual Console titles, of which I bought more than I did on the Wii already.
But without proper 3rd party support the console will simply crawl along until it gets its next game. Like the Wii did in its last 2 years or so, where there were huge gaps between awesome games.
This year we get Smash Bros, Bayonetta 2 and X (if the release schedule is to be believed), but when are they coming out?
I guess Smash will come out in May at the earliest, Bayonetta sometime in Fall and X (if it releases this year) will not come out before the holiday season (I guess mid-December at the earliest). Before that we have DKCR:TF and Mario Kart 8, both of which come out within one month from each other iirc (DKC in Feb, MK8 in March I think?).
This is all well and good, but gamers need MORE. And this "MORE" is handled through 3rd parties. Of which there are not enough on the Wii U. Capcom gives us Monster Hunter and maybe a Resident Evil spinoff/port, Tecmo-Koei gives us Hyrule Warriors and maybe/hopefully some Ninja Gaiden and Fatal Frame at best. You can count Dead or Alive right out. Then, where's the rest? I can only hope that P* will support the Wii U with at least some multiplatform titles after Bayo2, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Metal Gear Solid V, while it should be possible on Wii U, won't be released on it. Why? Because it wouldn't be profitable. Why? Because Nintendo.
This is the kind of thing that I had to realize over the last year. I love Nintendo. My first console I played with was the NES. The first game I played was Super Mario Bros. I got my first GameBoy on my 6th birthday, which was over 21 years ago. In the times of NES, GB and SNES, Nintendo was all the rage. They had awesome hardware and SUPERB 3rd party support (although during the NES days most of it was because of pretty evil licensing contracts).
When the PlayStation arrived I still clinged onto my N64, because it had Mario and Banjo-Kazooie and Goldeneye and Perfect Dark...all of which were 1st party titles back then. The only 3rd Party releases I owned back then (and still own today) are...Star Wars Shadows of the Empire and Tony Hawk's Pro Skater. That's pretty much it. Nintendo had the power back then to run on its own because it had an awesome amount of in-house devs (including Rare) with a huge variety of games that covered pretty much every genre available.
At the end of the N64 cycle, shortly before the PS2 hit the markets and the Dreamcast had long been released, I already realized how much more effort 3rd parties put into developing games for the PlayStation. It was cheaper (CDs vs. cartridges), less restrictive in terms of licensing, easier to program for (a silent 'Hello' to N64's 4KB of VRAM).
This already broke the GameCube's neck from the beginning. But the GameCube had probably the single most awesome launch lineup ever (at least here in Europe with over 20 titles available from the start) and it had hardware more powerful than the PS2 (although less powerful than Xbox) which always seemed to be a big plus for games developers.
It actually looked like Nintendo could place themselves in 2nd place because developers said at the time that the Xbox was even more complicated to program for (for console only developers at the time at least), but it still happened that the Xbox got into 2nd place shortly before the end of that generation.
The GameCube was neglected by both Nintendo and 3rd parties right after the Wii launched.
The Wii, while hugely successful, had two problems:
The Wiimote (it actually was pretty fun using it at the start but it would've been better if waggle wasn't shoehorned into everything. Also it had a lack of buttons)
And it's hardware.
Two GameCubes duct taped together. I was really angry at people using this sentence, because what do they know, right? Well, they weren't that far off, though. I was dissapointed that I didn't get to play games like Assassin's Creed or BioShock on the Wii. Instead we got more kid-friendly games and shovelware than I had ever seen on any console before.
Once again it was mostly Nintendo that saved the console all by itself, by giving us games like Super Mario Galaxy, Xenoblade and Metroid Prime 3. It helped that Nintendo marketed the console EXACTLY right. It was a family-oriented console for everyone and it showed. Over 100 million consoles speak for themselves, I guess. Still, the console wasn't that much superior to the original Xbox in terms of hardware power.
And here's where we are now. The Wii U.
I actually really like the console. It has a lot of hardware potential. But it will probably ever only get used by Nintendo and their in-house devs and, as I like to call them, "2nd parties". 3rd parties don't care about the console because it doesn't sell, because it doesn't have the power the Xbox One or PS4 have, because support sucks, because it's hard to program for. Which is a shame.
There is one mistake Nintendo made for the last 4 generations (Wii U included):
Hardware. Even if it was in the same league as its competitors (GameCube, N64) or not (Wii, Wii U), it always seemed that it was "hard to program for". It's what I heard 18 years in a row, from the N64 to the Wii U.
I know, especially since the Wii and DS (and before that with all the GameBoy variations and upgrades) Nintendo puts a lot of effort in backwards compatibility and they gain it by using upgraded versions of the same hardware as their predecessors. But maybe Nintendo should simply skip backwards compatibility ONCE (which is with Wii U's successor) to build completely new hardware from the ground up, based on what the competition is using (which most of the is based on PC hardware), so they can once again play in the same league.
The next Nintendo console needs to be strong. Stronger than the PS4 is now. Make it expensive. Not more expensive than the competition, though. Just make it appealing to 3rd party devs. Get the right hardware. Get the right hardware support. You can still be "family-friendly", but don't put that pussy on a pedestal for once. It's okay, you can still give us Mario and Zelda and Pikmin and Pokémon, and we will buy them and enjoy them, but if I could have a console that play Mario, Zelda, Call of Duty, Metal Gear, Pikmin, Resident Evil, Smash Bros., Mass Effect, Metroid, Assassin's Creed, Minecraft, Titanfall, Battlefield, Trine, Pokémon, Mighty Switch Force and Max Payne...why should I bother with another one? Aim for a console where EVERYTHING can be played on, regardless of age, gender or family status. Aim for a console everyone wants to buy because it's got the power to play what everyone wants to play. Aim for the Marios and Pikmin as well as the Call of Duties and Titanfalls. Maybe throw in one of your own more mature IPs like Eternal Darkness. Create a new one. Revive Project H.A.M.M.E.R.. Listen to the fans.
Just do something right for once, Nintendo.
That said, I'm still part of the problem. I'm a Nintendo fanboy at heart, though open to both PlayStation and Xbox and I will purchase a PS4 at some point in the future.
I consider the Wii U better than either the PS4 or the Xbox One at the moment because there's nothing for me on either of those two consoles right now (not before MGSV and Uncharted 4 at least), whereas I already have something like 12+ retail games and several download titles for the Wii U (VC games included).
But 3rd party games will be released on those consoles. The Wii U on the other hand will suffer a lack of 3rd party support and has to survive on 1st party titles once again.
I'm a sucker for Nintendo consoles and will probably buy each of their upcoming home consoles on launch day. Even if they fuck up once again. That doesn't mean I won't be dissapointed. Which I am right now. Very much so.
EDIT: HOW DID I WRITE SO MUCH HOLY CRAP