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[donny2112]

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the upcoming year.
What do I win?: Bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it.


This prediction thread covers the grand total of all console hardware sales as given in the NPD reports (or estimations of NPD data when there's a lack of public numbers) from January through December 2014.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Wednesday, February 12th. (This gives it some separation from the monthly thread deadline.) Format use is absolutely required.

Do not use decimal points or "m"/"million" in your predictions. If you predict over 1 million for a system, you can use 1000K or more to get to your prediction. Be careful to use the appropriate number of place values so you don't over or understate your predictions by a factor of 10. People who have such outliers will be disqualified.

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good

[360] 2500K
[360] 2500000
[360] 2,500,000

Bad

[360] 2.500.000
[360] 2.5 million
[360] 2.5m
[360] - 2.5 m
360 - 2 million

2013 Results*

[3DS] 3840K
[360] 3070K
[PS3] 2180K
[PS4] 2000K
[XB1] 1820K
[WIU] 1210K
[PSV] 450K

* Many numbers were not publicly available throughout the year, so using Road's estimates.

2012 Results*

[360] 5320K
[3DS] 3640K
[PS3] 3410K
[PSV] 1280K
[WII] 1960K
[WIU] 890K

* Many numbers were not publicly available throughout the year, so using jvm/Gamasutra's estimates.

2011 Results*

[360] 7300K
[WII] 4500K
[PS3] 4500K
[3DS] 4100K
[NDS] 3800K
[NGP] 0K

* Many numbers were not publicly available throughout the year, so using jvm/Gamasutra's estimates.

2010 Results

[NDS] 8,557,500
[WII] 7,069,900
[360] 6,764,089
[PS3] 4,333,500
[PSP] 1,660,324*

* PSP numbers for December 2010 were not made available, and thus the number you see here includes an estimate of 428,000 December hardware sales from jvm at Gamasutra.


Potentially significant sales-related events for 2014
(No guarantee these'll all happen in 2014. Also, this list is not meant to be comprehensive.)

360 - price drop
3DS - Super Smash Bros., price drop
XB1 - Halo-something, Titanfall, Destiny, Watch_Dogs
PS3 - price drop
PS4 - FFXV (would expect more PS impact than XB from this), Destiny, Watch_Dogs
WII U - Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros., price drop

2013 NPD Prediction Thread
2012 NPD Prediction Thread
2011 NPD Prediction Thread
2010 NPD Prediction Thread
2009 NPD Prediction Thread
2008 NPD Prediction Thread
2007 NPD Prediction Thread
2006 NPD Prediction Thread

 

[Jonsoncao]

[360] 2000k
[3DS] 3500k
[PS3] 1200k
[PS4] 4300k
[WIU] 1300k
[XB1] 4000k

 

[Dragonborn]

Okay, flying completely blind here so I have no idea what I'm doing, but here's my try:

[360] 2200k
[3DS] 3100k
[PS3] 1500k
[PS4] 7100k
[WIU] 1800k
[XB1] 5600k
[PSV] 300k

Wrong format.

Thanks for the heads up, I edited, hopefully I did it right this time.

 

[Lebon14]

[360] 1,300,000
[3DS] 2,750,000
[PS3] 1,150,000
[PS4] 4,000,000
[WIU] 1,150,000
[XB1] 2,500,000

 

[Chobel]

[360] 2140k
[3DS] 2995k
[PS3] 1100k
[PS4] 4233k
[WIU] 1080k
[XB1] 4066k

 

[Aquamarine]

Preliminary:

[360] 2001K
[3DS] 2845K
[PS3] 1282K
[PS4] 4496K
[WIU] 1004K
[XB1] 4013K


In terms of YOY changes, that's:

System - 2013 -> 2014 (% Change):

1. PS4 - 2000K -> 4496K (+124.80%)
2. XB1 - 1820K -> 4013K (+120.50%)
3. 3DS - 3840K -> 2845K (-25.91%)
4. 360 - 3070K -> 2001K (-34.82%)
5. PS3 - 2180K -> 1282K (-41.19%)
6. WIU - 1210K -> 1004K (-17.03%)

 

[MasterSheen]

Can't wait to laugh at my predictions again next year.

[360] 1700k
[3DS] 3000k
[PS3] 900k
[PS4] 5000k
[WIU] 1500k
[XB1] 3750k

 

[SwiftDeath]

[PS4] 5200K
[XB1] 3600K
[3DS] 3000K
[360] 2300K
[PS3] 1600K
[WIU] 1200K

Edit: Reordered by Size

 

[Dysun]

[360] 2100K
[3DS] 2700K
[PS3] 1200K
[PS4] 5500K
[WIU] 900K
[XB1] 3500K

Look forward to seeing how far off I was next year

 

[prag16]

[360] 1600K
[3DS] 4000K
[PS3] 1200K
[PS4] 3900K
[WIU] 1700K
[XB1] 3500K

 

[Maitiú]

[360] 1700K
[3DS] 3000K
[PS3] 1500K
[PS4] 6500K
[WIU] 2000K
[XB1] 4100K

 

[baekshi]

[360] 1850k
[3DS] 3420k
[PS3] 1520k
[PS4] 3754k
[WIU] 1450k
[XB1] 2560k

[PSV] 700k

 

[DaBoss]

[360] 1800K
[3DS] 3000K
[PS3] 1000K
[PS4] 4200K
[WIU] 1200K
[XB1] 3400K

Wii U has two games that have the ability to sell systems this year, so I think it will go up YOY by a small amount. I think the 3DS will get its long-awaited price-cut this year. The $250 SKUs for the PS360 will be around $200 now.

I also have no idea what I'm doing.

Would a new color for the XB1 be considered significant?

 

[Hoho for breakfast]

[PS4] 7,000,001
[XB1] 4,500,000
[3DS] 2,700,000
[360] 1,400,000
[PS3] 1,400,000
[WIU] 1,100,000

 

[Aquamarine]

[PS4] 4500K
[XB1] 3500K
[3DS] 3000K
[360] 2000K
[WIU] 1400K
[PS3] 1100K

Wii U has two games that have the ability to sell systems this year, so I think it will go up YOY by a small amount. I think the 3DS will get its long-awaited price-cut this year. The $250 SKUs for the PS360 will be around $200 now.

I also have no idea what I'm doing.

Would a new color for the XB1 be considered significant?

I don't think a new colour will do much...but the rumoured $100 price cut definitely will do something.

Personally I have Wii U down slightly YOY because I believe the gains from Smash Bros. U and Mario Kart 8 will be offset by diminished retail presence and further 3rd-party abandonment.

 

[sjagolinzer]

[360] 2000K
[3DS] 3500K
[PS3] 1500K
[PS4] 6000K
[WIU] 1500K
[XB1] 4500K

 

[Road]

Hmm...

[360] 1777K
[3DS] 3333K
[PS3] 1222K
[PS4] 4444K
[WIU] 1111K
[XB1] 3333K

 

[DaBoss]

I don't think a new color will do much...but the rumoured $100 price cut definitely will do something.

Personally I have Wii U down slightly YOY because I believe the gains from Smash Bros. U and Mario Kart 8 will be offset by diminished retail presence and further 3rd-party abandonment.

Yea, I guess a new color would just impact the month it comes out by a bit.

The way I see it, the retail presence is already pretty much as small as it can get, and most 3rd-parties never released a game for the Wii U anyways and the 3rd-parties games that have been on the Wii U sold a marginal amount, so I think the impact would be insignificant.

EDIT: lol, you edited your post to put the letter 'u' in color despite living in the US, while I live in Canada and can't be bothered to use a 'u' in color.

 

[joecanada]

[360] 2100000
[ps3] 1800000
[WIIU] 1100000
[3DS] 4050000
[x1] 4950000
[ps4] 5600000

 

[GhaleonEB]

[360] 1750k
[3DS] 3200k
[PS3] 1200k
[PS4] 7000k
[WIU] 1800k
[XB1] 4200k

 

[SwiftDeath]

I don't think a new colour will do much...but the rumoured $100 price cut definitely will do something.

There's a rumor of a $100 price cut for Wii U?

 

[terrisus]

Did much better last year than I expected. (Still did pretty bad, but not quite as bad as some others).
So, hey, I'll give this another shot.


[360] 1,000,000
[3DS] 4,000,000
[PS3] 1,300,000
[PS4] 3,500,000
[WIU] 1,700,000
[XB1] 3,000,000


I might re-visit these before the voting deadline closes... But then, I said that last time and then didn't. At least this is something though.
Also, ouch at Vita being moot at this point.

 

[Aquamarine]

Yea, I guess a new color would just impact the month it comes out by a bit.

The way I see it, the retail presence is already pretty much as small as it can get, and most 3rd-parties never released a game for the Wii U anyways and the 3rd-parties games that have been on the Wii U sold a marginal amount, so I think the impact would be insignificant.

EDIT: lol, you edited your post to put the letter 'u' in color despite living in the US, while I live in Canada and can't be bothered to use a 'u' in color.

Haha but I was born and raised in London, so I struggle between using the American spellings or British ones. I already put one u in rumoured so I said "Might as well go back and add the other u!"

For the USA market:

I understand that Wii U retail presence is very small. What I'm envisioning in 2014 is actual retail chains (like we have seen in Australia or the U.K.) refusing to stock Wii U units anymore. At least every major retailer (GameStop, Wal-Mart, Target, Best Buy, etc.) still has the system. But imagine if say Wal-Mart decided to no longer support the console?

I think that will be a factor.

It also assumes that the remaining third-party publishers (Ubisoft, Activision, Warner Bros.) will stop bringing their core games to the console. I believe we'll continue to see games for children / LEGO games, but not releases like Watch_Dogs or the next Call of Duty. That will impact new adoption as well.

Like the previous Wii superstars that have failed to grab people's attention, I see Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros. acting similar to how 3D World and Super Mario Bros. U wooed audiences...it will bring in some new users, but it won't be enough to elevate the console above its previous performances.

 

[Skeff]

[PS4] 5236K
[XB1] 3774K
[3DS] 3000K
[360] 1439K
[PS3] 1045K
[WIU] 900K

My reasoning, I don't think we'll get a $100 cut on XB1, I think it will only be $50 and something will be removed from the system to decrease the value proposition, I think the WiiU is going to be completely abandoned of 3rd party games, starting with the watchdogs news.

IMO PS4 will not see FFXV this year, but will see UC4, GTA5, Watchdogs and Destiny bundles. Hence the rather high estimation.

EDIT: Ordered by size and reduced ps360

 

[jvm]

[3DS] 3350K
[PS4] 3200K
[XB1] 2700K
[PS3] 1100K
[360] 1001K
[WIU] 1000K

Remember: You can put them in any order you want. It's easier to see rankings if you sort by size. (You could also use alphabetical order, but that's less helpful. )

 

[dolemite]

[3DS] 4000K
[360] 1500K
[PS3] 1000K
[PS4] 5000K
[XB1] 5000K
[WIU] 2000K

I won't be surprised if the PS360 numbers will completely collapse. The only reason why they were decent this year is because of the GTAV release. Oh, and I doubt that either MSFT or Sony will do a price cut on their old hardware -- they want their newest toys to keep selling now, not the old stuff.

[PSV] 2012 -- 2014, R.I.P.

 

[RamzaIsCool]

[360] 1500k
[3DS] 3000k
[PS3] 1000k
[PS4] 6000k
[WIU] 1500k
[XB1] 4000k

 

[Aquamarine]

There's a rumor of a $100 price cut for Wii U?

Price cut for entering into the Xbox One ecosystem (introducing a new, lower-priced SKU that's $100 cheaper) to align the console with PS4's $399.

 

[Daemul]

[360] 2000k
[3DS] 5500k
[PS3] 1000k
[PS4] 3500k
[WIU] 2000k
[XB1] 4000k

Some of my predictions are a heavy risk, but the prize.....

 

[astrogamer]

[360]1800k
[3DS]3600k
[PS3]1200k
[PS4]4500k
[WIU]1500k
[XB1]4000k

and for the pretty much dead consoles but predicting out of respect
[PSV]350k
[WII]200k

 

[Aquamarine]

[360]1800k
[3DS]3600k
[PS3]1200k
[PS4]4500k
[WIU]1500k
[XB1]4000k

and for the pretty much dead consoles but predicting out of respect
[PSV]350k
[WII]200k

Don't forget about DS, PSP, and PS2 predictions.

 

[Lexxism]

[PS4] 4500k
[XB1] 4000k
[3DS] 3700k
[360] 2000k
[WIU] 1700k
[PS3] 1500k

Finall updated my prediction for the whole 2014.

 

[FourMyle]

That 2013 prediction thread is very entertaining. People putting down 2000k~4000k for Wii U and as low as 300k for PS4

 

[SwiftDeath]

Price cut for entering into the Xbox One ecosystem (introducing a new, lower-priced SKU that's $100 cheaper) to align the console with PS4's $399.

Ah ok you two were talking about the XB1, my mistake. Yes I believe they'll get the price down this year with a lower-priced SKU with something removed [not sure what though]

 

[Dragonborn]

That 2013 prediction thread is very entertaining. People putting down 2000k~4000k for Wii U and as low as 300k for PS4

Crazy how things changed. Back then i never would have thought the PS4 would end up ahead the way it did and it seems no else did either. Just goes to show how MS completely squandered their gains with the 360

 

[DaBoss]

Haha but I was born and raised in London, so I struggle between using the American spellings or British ones. I already put one u in rumoured so I said "Might as well go back and add the other u!"

For the USA market:

I understand that Wii U retail presence is very small. What I'm envisioning in 2014 is actual retail chains (like we have seen in Australia or the U.K.) refusing to stock Wii U units anymore. At least every major retailer (GameStop, Wal-Mart, Target, Best Buy, etc.) still has the system. But imagine if say Wal-Mart decided to no longer support the console?

I think that will be a factor.

It also assumes that the remaining third-party publishers (Ubisoft, Activision, Warner Bros.) will stop bringing their core games to the console. I believe we'll continue to see games for children / LEGO games, but not releases like Watch_Dogs or the next Call of Duty. That will impact new adoption as well.

Like the previous Wii superstars that have failed to grab people's attention, I see Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros. acting similar to how 3D World and Super Mario Bros. U wooed audiences...it will bring in some new users, but it won't be enough to elevate the console above its previous performances.

I think Mario Kart and Smash Bros are better system sellers than other games by Nintendo, but you're right, I forgot about the situation in the UK (though that is one of Nintendo's weakest markets).

I don't think major retailers will drop the Wii U yet since the PSV is still being sold in the US, which is selling worse than the Wii U, but who knows, they could both just be axed without a moments notice this year.

 

[Maitiú]

I'm relatively optimistic for Wii U's year over year only because I'm betting Nintendo has a big holiday title to reveal around E3, and perhaps their marketing strategy on mobile devices will be ingenious and at least moderately successful. Plus I haven't bought any of the three new consoles, but the Wii U will be my first purchase sometime this year simply because now it has a good handful of games that I must play, while for the moment the PS4/XB1 have none.

That 2013 prediction thread is very entertaining. People putting down 2000k~4000k for Wii U and as low as 300k for PS4

PS4 sales were predicted as low as 0K in that thread.

 

[Aquamarine]

I think Mario Kart and Smash Bros are better system sellers than other games by Nintendo, but you're right, I forgot about the situation in the UK (though that is one of Nintendo's weakest markets).

I don't think major retailers will drop the Wii U yet since the PSV is still being sold in the US, which is selling worse than the Wii U, but who knows, they could both just be axed without a moments notice this year.

We also have to take into consideration the unique relationships that Sony and Nintendo have with USA retailers. For example, Sony's inventory buyback policy for unsold Vita consoles may be more lenient than Nintendo's policy for unsold Wii U consoles, or maybe Sony provides more of an incentive to keep PS Vitas on the shelf despite them barely contributing to retailer profits.

 

[donny2112]

Okay, flying completely blind here so I have no idea what I'm doing,

So what you're saying is, you're in the same boat as the rest of us. Did you see how much we messed up 2013's predictions? :lol

That 2013 prediction thread is very entertaining. People putting down 2000k~4000k for Wii U and as low as 300k for PS4

That would be because many thought PS4 wouldn't even make it out in 2013, and if it did, it'd be a small token launch shipment just to say they were out now. I'm pretty sure everyone expected a sellout, but we were trying to guess how many would make it to the U.S. to actually sell.

 

[Dragonborn]

So what you're saying is, you're in the same boat as the rest of us. Did you see how much we messed up 2013's predictions? :lol

Haha, I suppose that is the case! I meant more along the lines of I've never tried predicting this kinda stuff. It'll interesting seeing how off I was a year from now, I think I might be overestimating the next gen consoles

 

[pieatorium]

[360] 2000K
[3DS] 2100K
[PS3] 1400K
[PS4] 5500K
[WIU] 750K
[XB1] 4000K

 

[michaelius]

[360] 1999K
[3DS] 2999K
[PS3] 1222K
[PS4] 6500K
[WIU] 804K
[XB1] 4513K

 

[Derphoof]

For now, I'll go with:

[PS4] 5100K
[XB1] 4400K
[3DS] 3150K
[360] 1700K
[WIU] 1550K
[PS3] 1250K

We'll see how that holds up.

 

[sergioalb64]

[3DS] 2800K
[360] 2000K
[PS3] 1600K
[PS4] 6000K
[XB1] 4800K
[WIU] 1500K
[PSV] 370K

 

[Jamix012]

[3DS] 2950K
[360] 2160K
[PS3] 1395K
[PS4] 3990K
[XB1] 2850K
[WIU] 1730K
[PSV] 375K

 

[1st Course]

[360] 1300k
[3DS] 2500k
[PS3] 900k
[PS4] 4000k
[WIU] 1300k
[XB1] 3000k

 

[DarkJedi24]

[360] 3000k
[3DS] 4000k
[PS3] 2500k
[PS4] 5500k
[WIU] 2000k
[XB1] 4500k

And some Vita love.

[PSV] 500k

 

[Zero-Crescent]

[360] 1400K
[XB1] 4100K
[3DS] 4500K
[PS3] 950K
[PS4] 4500K
[WIU] 1450K

 

[BlackBuzzard]

[360] 2300K Im expecting a price drop at E3
[3DS] 2700K
[PS3] 2100K Price drop plus some great value bundles
[PS4] 6500K PS4 will continue dominance
[WIU] 2500K MK8 and Smash will cause for a sales bump when they are release
[XB1] 4500K Demand for Xbone will keep dropping till a price drop, Titanfall wont do much for hardware sales.

 

[shinra-bansho]

[360] 2100K
[3DS] 3000K
[PS3] 1450K
[PS4] 4567K
[WIU] 1234K
[XB1] 3456K