Support NeoGAF

[Renekton]

Largely correct. But I'm betting AMD will use TSMC 7nm+ which is true 7nm In 2019. Perfect for Sony PS5 in 2020. If PS5 comes out holiday 2021 5nm could be a possibility, have to wait and see.

I think AMD may still hold out for GF to get their act together for Zen 7nm, since their largest shareholder also owns GF.

 

[jroc74]

Lol with this 2019 nonsense... Why would this gen be shorter than last... They are extended it with half step hardware. Last gen the 360 and PS3 were dx9 machines in a dx11 world when 2011 came around... What would a new console do? Slightly better graphics? Pc is dx12, Scorpio and pro have the dx12 feature set

2020 would be gen length for the PS3... But the gen started in 2005 with Xbox 360. Nothing is cheaper than last gen it will be same length or longer. 2020 as absolute earliest probably 2021

Why would this gen have to be the same length as last?

It's a one year difference but still. 6 years isn't some crazy idea.

 

[DECK'ARD]

Unless PS5 is a Switch.

Which would be the most hilarious thing to ever happen in the history of gaming and I'd have to take a break from the forum to avoid too much hilarity.

 

[Mifune]

What the hell are you talking about? PS3 was released 6 years after the PS2. The PS3 generation was just an anomaly in that it went way too long by console generation standards. If they release the PS5 in 2019, that would just be around par for the course.

You're right. Brain fart.

Still don't think 2020 is too late though. Not when you factor in Pro and Scorpio.

 

[Big Green Anus]

Sony are idiots if PS5 releases next year. It's too soon!

 

[Nikodemos]

Unlikely. Probably Pro Slim next year, rumours of PS5 in 2019, PS5 in 2020.

 

[GameAddict411]

With how versatile the console architecture have become, it won't be shocking if Sony is looking in a successor earlier than usual, but I doubt Sony will release a new console this early when PS4 sales are peaking. I think 2019 would be a good year to reveal a new console, but not 2018.

 

[GHG]

It wouldn't surprise me. The console arms race has become a real thing this gen and both Sony and MS have torn up the rule book in terms of what a console generation is supposed to mean.

Good times.

 

[Stiler]

I think it's .likely.

I mean they HAVE to put out something that can compete vs the scorpio, if they don't then xbox will take the crown as the most powerful home console and I don't think Sony wants to just hand it over to them with no fight.

Now does that mean a new console like a ps5 or just an upgraded (more then the pro) system?

I'd wager it'll be an even beefier upgraded ps4 with a faster cpu/gpu and more ram or such. Maybe even put in a 4k bloody blu ray drive this time...

 

[dano1]

Fuck that. They better not.

As long as it plays all PS4 games why would you care?!

 

[sloppyjoe_gamer]

I think it's .likely.

I mean they HAVE to put out something that can compete vs the scorpio, if they don't then xbox will take the crown as the most powerful home console and I don't think Sony wants to just hand it over to them with no fight.

Now does that mean a new console like a ps5 or just an upgraded (more then the pro) system?

I'd wager it'll be an even beefier upgraded ps4 with a faster cpu/gpu and more ram or such. Maybe even put in a 4k bloody blu ray drive this time...

No offense but id put the liklihood of any of that happening at 0.0%

Theyre not going to have PS4 Pro 2 the revenge, just to be in a pissing match with MS

 

[DECK'ARD]

I think it's .likely.

I mean they HAVE to put out something that can compete vs the scorpio, if they don't then xbox will take the crown as the most powerful home console and I don't think Sony wants to just hand it over to them with no fight.

Now does that mean a new console like a ps5 or just an upgraded (more then the pro) system?

I'd wager it'll be an even beefier upgraded ps4 with a faster cpu/gpu and more ram or such. Maybe even put in a 4k bloody blu ray drive this time...

They don't have to do anything to compete with Scorpio at all. Unless we see miracles at E3, because that is what it will take.

Scorpio is about damage control and keeping the players they have on board.

 

[Inuhanyou]

As long as it plays all PS4 games why would you care?!

Because its not an iterative unit, its PS5. They are not gonna say all that stuff about how they still care about generations during the Pro launch just 6 months ago and already have something like this down the pipe.

Anyway, not gonna happen. I'll bet anyone on that.

 

[Wagram]

Absolutely no chance PS5 comes before late 2019 at minimum.

 

[Crayon]

I think it's .likely.

I mean they HAVE to put out something that can compete vs the scorpio, if they don't then xbox will take the crown as the most powerful home console and I don't think Sony wants to just hand it over to them with no fight.

Now does that mean a new console like a ps5 or just an upgraded (more then the pro) system?

I'd wager it'll be an even beefier upgraded ps4 with a faster cpu/gpu and more ram or such. Maybe even put in a 4k bloody blu ray drive this time...

Lol no. But I think a ps4 with a UHD drive is likely if that catches on.

 

[Jombie]

I need to start saving for a decent PC..

 

[Head.spawn]

Lot's of fear in this thread, I wouldn't be surprised at all if we got a PS5 in the second half of 2018. Four+ years for a console cycle is enough imo, I think people have gotten too used to the overly long cycle that the 360 and PS3 went through. The PS5 will likely be backwards compatible with PS4 titles and the PS4 will continue getting games well into the PS5's life. Sony needs to compete with scorpio (which lets be real, is a next gen console) and the PS4 PRO is an insignificant of an upgrade over the regular PS4.


LMAO

Is this a joke post?

 

[vilmer_]

I haven't seen Dr. Cerny online much lately. Perhaps it's just Knack 2 crunch. Or is it?

 

[Mandoric]

I'd be surprised if Sony didn't have plans for something which COULD ship late '18 following a final decision next winter. The tech will be there to easily 32X, or at least Dreamcast, Scorpio; its launch timing is essentially daring Sony to make the console market a money sink for another generation.

Unless Scorpio takes off like a greased chihuaha with a diet-Coke-and-Mentos enema, though, I'd expect that the bait won't be taken and Sony will trade a couple million units mindshare in the US for 10 or 15 million more units sold worldwide.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

Don't see it happening. PS5 gets released 2019 at the earliest.

This.

 

[modsbox]

Unless PS5 is a Switch.

Which would be the most hilarious thing to ever happen in the history of gaming and I'd have to take a break from the forum to avoid too much hilarity.

They won't do that, but the one I keep thinking would be megaton, whenever its technically doable would be a PS4 Portable. By holiday 2018 seems like it could be doable. And it seems to me the way they should go with portables... just keep pushing everything onto PS4 as a platform, don't try to split it and support an entire separate software library on portable.

They could make it digital only, 500gb micro sdxc will be affordable by then, 256gb would be cheap.

To be able to bring the entirety of the PS4 library over to a new portable machine like the Vita (as well as support for Vita, PSP games) would be huge.

 

[The Hamburglar]

If they launch ps5 I'm done with Sony. Fuck this shit.

 

[Floody]

yeah that's why i said technically it already happened with persona 5 - regardless of that, there have been crossgen games last year, whether or not there were less than in previous years they were there, and whether or not there will be more this year, even if the next console comes out next year it will mean that the vast majority of this gen was crossgen.

which would make a new console in 2020 that much more rewarded in hardware

Oh, I get you now, I think it'd be fine if the 4ish years of mostly current gen titles deliver though, I definitely would be dissapointed if next gen started next year, but after all the great stuff we've had and all the potentially great stuff coming over the next 2 years I think I'll be satisfied by the end of 2019 if most deliver. This gen has already gave me a few all-time favourites, and I can definitely see a few more if the future line up delivers. I definitely think mid to late 2018 would be cutting it just short of greatness.

 

[Muffdraul]

Scorpio is not closing that 2:1 gap.

Probably not. But going by your posts you're in some serious denial about how kooky the console arms race is right now. Crazier than ever in some ways.

 

[Manuel.]

I think 2019 is more likely

 

[Bgamer90]

That gen lasted way too long, games were stale,people were losing interest in the consoles. Thats why the PS4/XBO did so well even with no real reason to upgrade until 2015.

People felt the gen lasted too long because of the fact that people still had 2005 hardware after 2010. The PS4 Pro and Scorpio solve that issue.

Releasing the PS5 in 2018 would be very silly. I would be shocked to see it happen.

 

[yuraya]

I can see them tease it the same way MS teased Scorpio last year.

It would be a smart move too. Sony PR would downplay 6 teraflop scorpio by telling everyone to wait for 8 teraflop PS5 next year.

 

[HellofaMouse]

predicting ps4pro release is very dıfferent from predicting ps5 release

 

[xabbott]

I eventually got a PRO and haven't been too happy with how games have taken advantage of it. I'll probably get Scorpio this year if the price is reasonable. But if PS5 comes out in 2018 I'll be done with console upgrades for a bit. I think I'm cool with 3.5-4 years between upgrades.

 

[Bgamer90]

Announcing a console eighteen months in advance is just bad business. Microsoft may have made that mistake but I really can't see Sony repeating it.

Xbox One S still did well during the second half of last year regardless. Scorpio may be able to make up the sales being lower for Xbox One this current year.

Honestly, if anything I think people would be far more upset if MS saved the Scorpio announcement for this year after just announcing/releasing the Xbox One S last year.

 

[DECK'ARD]

They won't do that, but the one I keep thinking would be megaton, whenever its technically doable would be a PS4 Portable. By holiday 2018 seems like it could be doable. And it seems to me the way they should go with portables... just keep pushing everything onto PS4 as a platform, don't try to split it and support an entire separate software library on portable.

They could make it digital only, 500gb micro sdxc will be affordable by then, 256gb would be cheap.

To be able to bring the entirety of the PS4 library over to a new portable machine like the Vita (as well as support for Vita, PSP games) would be huge.

To be fair I think the Switch has killed traditional handhelds for good.

- 1 system with half the experience
- 2 systems with all of it
- 1 system with both

The only people who'd buy it would be the hardcore, I doubt Sony will think it's worth it.

 

[LOLCats]

Absolute no way.

 

[The One and Done™]

Yeah no

 

[jdmonmou]

People felt the gen lasted too long because of the fact that people still had 2005 hardware after 2010. The PS4 Pro and Scorpio solve that issue.

Releasing the PS5 in 2018 would be very silly. I would be shocked to see it happen.

The silly thing was releasing PS4 Pro and the whole iterative console concept. PS5 in 2018 makes a lot of sense.

 

[dano1]

Because its not an iterative unit, its PS5. They are not gonna say all that stuff about how they still care about generations during the Pro launch just 6 months ago and already have something like this down the pipe.

Anyway, not gonna happen. I'll bet anyone on that.

Pretty sure the plans are new hardware every 3 years.
If you wait 5 years or more your going to lose out to PC. I think the term is you need to keep up with the Jones's.

They just need to make all games backwards compatible for at least the last 2 consoles. PS4 and PS4Pro.

 

[VanCityGamer]

Lol with this 2019 nonsense... Why would this gen be shorter than last... They are extended it with half step hardware. Last gen the 360 and PS3 were dx9 machines in a dx11 world when 2011 came around... What would a new console do? Slightly better graphics? Pc is dx12, Scorpio and pro have the dx12 feature set

2020 would be gen length for the PS3... But the gen started in 2005 with Xbox 360. Nothing is cheaper than last gen it will be same length or longer. 2020 as absolute earliest probably 2021

You think Sony is potentially letting the notably more powerful Scorpio hold the power crown until 2021? I would argue there's basically no chance of that happening. The PS5 will most likely arrive in late 2019.

I think they'll stick with major new consoles every 6 years and then mid-gen refreshes in the middle.

2013: PS4
2016: PS4 Pro
2019: PS5
2022: PS5 Pro

 

[TLZ]

We literally just got the pro months ago. Cmon.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

You think Sony is potentially letting the notably more powerful Scorpio hold the power crown until 2021? I would argue there's basically no chance of that happening. The PS5 will most likely arrive in late 2019.

I think it largely depends on whether Sony wants to use Vega20 or bank on using the Navi architecture.

 

[AmyS]

Largely correct. But I'm betting AMD will use TSMC 7nm+ which is true 7nm In 2019. Perfect for Sony PS5 in 2020. If PS5 comes out holiday 2021 5nm could be a possibility, have to wait and see.

If TSMC 7nm+ is true 7nm that's a win. Ideally, PS5 would be around 18 TFLOPs (that's both 10 times more powerful than the original base PS4, and 3X more powerful than Scorpio).

The most interesting thing is what AMD plans to do with future APUs which will probably be the foundation of all their semi-custom designs. Using several CPU "chiplets" each with four Zen cores and several Navi-based GPU chiplets, combined with stacked RAM of some type. Manufacturing will be made easier since an APU won't have to be a single huge piece of silicon, but a number of pieces (the chiplets) combined on a package.

https://www.overclock3d.net/news/cp...a_exascale_mega_apu_in_a_new_academic_paper/1

AMD reveals a Exascale MEGA APU in a new academic paper

For years AMD has been planning to create large APUs for the High-performance compute (HPC) market, though these plans come with their own design challenges what need to be overcome.

While on paper it may seem easy to design a massive APU, but in reality, these designs are almost impossible to manufacture and present issues given the hugely different design characteristics of a CPU and a GPU. One of the largest issues comes when manufacturing large CPU/GPU dies, with yields decreasing and costs rising as you create larger products.

One of the largest issues comes when manufacturing large CPU/GPU dies, with yields decreasing and costs rising as you create larger products. Imagine a silicon wafer and imagine that a single wafer has a certain number of defects, each wafer creates a certain number of chips, which means that only a small number of chips will be affected in the whole batch. When creating products with large die sized the number of chips per silicon wafer decreases, which means that defects can destroy a larger proportion of the products in a single silicon wafer.

According to this paper, AMD wants to get around this "large die issue" by making their Exascale APUs using a large number of smaller dies, which are connected via a silicon interposer. This is similar to how AMD GPUs connect to HBM memory and can, in theory, be used to connect two or more GPU, or in this case CPU and GPU dies, to create what is effectively a larger final chip using several smaller parts.

In the image below you can see that this APU uses eight different CPU dies/chiplets and eight different GPU dies/chiplets to create an exascale APU that can effectively act like a single unit. If these CPU chiplets use AMD's Ryzen CPU architecture they will have a minimum of 4 CPU cores, giving this hypothetical APU a total of 32 CPU cores and 64 threads.

This new APU type will also use onboard memory, using a next-generation memory type that can be stacked directly onto a GPU die, rather than be stacked beside a GPU like HBM. Combine this with an external bank of memory (perhaps DDR4) and AMD's new GPU memory architecture and you will have a single APU that can work with a seemingly endless amount of memory and easily compute using both CPU and GPU resources using HSA (Heterogeneous System Architecture).

In this chip both the CPU and GPU portions can use the packages onboard memory as well as an external memory, opening up a lot of interesting possibilities for the HPC market, possibilities that neither Intel or Nvidia can provide themselves.

Right now this new "Mega APU" is currently in early design stages, with no planned release date. It is clear that this design uses a new GPU design that is beyond Vega, using a next-generation memory standard which offers advantages over both GDDR and HBM.

Building a large chip using several smaller CPU and GPU dies is a smart move from AMD, allowing them to create separate components on manufacturing processes that are optimised and best suited to each separate component and allows each constituent piece to be used in several different CPU, GPU or APU products.

For example, CPUs could be built on a performance optimised node, while the GPU clusters can be optimised for enhanced silicon density, with interposers being created using a cheaper process due to their simplistic functions that do not require cutting edge process technology.

This design method could be the future of how AMD creates all of their products, with both high-end and low-end GPUs being made from different numbers of the same chiplets and future consoles, desktop APUs and server products using many of the same CPU or GPU chiplets/components.

original source: http://www.computermachines.org/joe/publications/pdfs/hpca2017_exascale_apu.pdf

My bet is PS5 in November 2020, right around the U.S. presidential general election.

 

[Toni]

I think it's .likely.

I mean they HAVE to put out something that can compete vs the scorpio, if they don't then xbox will take the crown as the most powerful home console and I don't think Sony wants to just hand it over to them with no fight.

Now does that mean a new console like a ps5 or just an upgraded (more then the pro) system?

I'd wager it'll be an even beefier upgraded ps4 with a faster cpu/gpu and more ram or such. Maybe even put in a 4k bloody blu ray drive this time...

They dont have to put anything out to compete with anything.

Sony has no competition in the console industry. Period.

 

[The Artisan]

Oh, I get you now, I think it'd be fine if the 4ish years of mostly current gen titles deliver though, I definitely would be dissapointed if next gen started next year, but after all the great stuff we've had and all the potentially great stuff coming over the next 2 years I think I'll be satisfied by the end of 2019 if most deliver. This gen has already gave me a few all-time favourites, and I can definitely see a few more if the future line up delivers. I definitely think mid to late 2018 would be cutting it just short of greatness.

i see so there was a miscommunication between us all this time. well i don't blame you for wanting your release window, i hope you can understanding why i want mine though.

also there were quite a few individuals in this thread, recent pro owners who are expressing potential disappointment if next gen does start next year.

 

[The Hamburglar]

Also ps5 in 2018. We've not even had a GTA made for current gen yet lmao.

 

[DECK'ARD]

i see so there was a miscommunication between us all this time. well i don't blame you for wanting your release window, i hope you can understanding why i want mine though.

also there were quite a few individuals in this thread, recent pro owners who are expressing potential disappointment if next gen does start next year.

It would be the worst mistake Sony have made since the PS3.

You don't cede power after drilling it into everyone's heads that's what is needed and this is for the players. Which let you stomp all over everyone and get the brand as high as it's been really.

This wouldn't be good for them, the players, or the developers. My only conclusion would be they've gone mad again.

 

[jdmonmou]

They dont have to put anything out to compete with anything.

Sony has no competition in the console industry. Period.

 

[Bgamer90]

They dont have to put anything out to compete with anything.

Sony has no competition in the console industry. Period.

Man... seems like such a waste of money to get marketing deals with third party games if that's the case. Interesting.

 

[Mandoric]

i see so there was a miscommunication between us all this time. well i don't blame you for wanting your release window, i hope you can understanding why i want mine though.

also there were quite a few individuals in this thread, recent pro owners who are expressing potential disappointment if next gen does start next year.

The Pro is lowkey enough where you could probably burn every owner of it so hard they'd never touch Sony again, and still have no problems other than creating UK Resistance-style angry media.

The problem is missing the 40-50m PS4 sales we can expect if it gets price-reduced to $129-$149 and maintained as a separate line, rather than dragged out back and shot because no one will pay $299 for it when there's a $399 PS5.

 

[Floody]

i see so there was a miscommunication between us all this time. well i don't blame you for wanting your release window, i hope you can understanding why i want mine though.

also there were quite a few individuals in this thread, recent pro owners who are expressing potential disappointment if next gen does start next year.

It's all good, was a fun little chat. I can definitely see were you're coming from too, and it's fine wanting even more bang for your buck.

Pro owners would have every right to be pissed if a PS5 releases next year imo, I don't have 1 but I'd be pissed too and would never touch a Sony mid gen upgrade ever, as I'd have no faith in them being worthwhile. Can even see some being annoy if it releases in 2019, I know the Pro announcement annoyed me a little, despite having a PS4 since launch.

 

[-Horizon-]

You know, I kind of do not want that.
I would like my og ps4 to be relevant for a bit longer.

 

[NoctisVsStar]

Got the pro on day one and personally I wouldn't mind cause I like upgrading my electronics/phones and whatnot. However, not everyone is thinks like me. I think fall 2019 at the earliest. But I'm hoping 2020 so we can get a beast of a machine.. either way I'm there sony.

 

[DECK'ARD]

They just need to time it right for the proper power jump, build the anticipation, and people will be wetting themselves for it.

That's not going to happen next year.