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Animal Crossing Amiibo cards launch 2nd Oct -100 to collect, sold in blind packs of 3

jeffers

Member
Okay, so, with the following assumptions:
- 83 "common" cards, all the same probability each
- 17 "special" cards, all the same probability each
- Each pack has 6 cards, of which 5 are common and 1 is special
- Whether there are duplicates per pack makes very little difference (a few percent)

To complete the set, you'd need on average 85 packs. ($3 -> $255, $5 -> $425, $6 -> 510)
To complete the "special" cards, you'd need on average 57 packs.
To get one specific "special" card, you'd need on average 17 packs (this should be a "duh")
To complete the "normal" cards, you'd need on average 80 packs
To get one specific "normal" card, you'd need on average 17 packs
To get a set of 25 of your fav cards, of which 20 are normal and 5 are special, you'd need on average 62 packs

now get out the economics books and figure the ebay trade value for a shiny isabelle?
 

Kazerei

Banned
Okay, so, with the following assumptions:
- 83 "common" cards, all the same probability each
- 17 "special" cards, all the same probability each
- Each pack has 6 cards, of which 5 are common and 1 is special
- Whether there are duplicates per pack makes very little difference (a few percent)

To complete the set, you'd need on average 85 packs. ($3 -> $255, $5 -> $425, $6 -> 510)
To complete the "special" cards, you'd need on average 57 packs.
To get one specific "special" card, you'd need on average 17 packs (this should be a "duh")
To complete the "normal" cards, you'd need on average 80 packs
To get one specific "normal" card, you'd need on average 17 packs
To get a set of 25 of your fav cards, of which 20 are normal and 5 are special, you'd need on average 62 packs

0 marks, show your work

I keed, I keed, thanks for the help
 
After painstakingly trying to get all the Kid Icarus Uprising AR cards (apples and oranges yeah I know), I wouldn't be caught dead trying to do the same thing with Home Designer >_<

I still don't have all the Uprising cards ;_;
 

QaaQer

Member
My brain is groggy so it's way too early for me to work out the probability on this, so I did a Monte Carlo simulation to figure out how much it would cost to complete the set provided there are no duplicates in a pack:

V91CtsF.png


Across my simulation, the mean number of packs you would need to buy to complete the set is 171; the minimum number of packs you would need to buy is 85, and the maximum 509. I'm guessing packs will be $3-5 a pack, so I'm sure you can all do multiplication.

Nintendo does DLC right.

How much do you think it would cost if they did allow duplicates in a pack? OMG LOL

haha, no. there will be some 'rare' cards.
 

Shiggy

Member
Why at this point are those two are mutually exclusive? Seeing as they are branching out in other areas like theme parks and licensing their IP out.

Outside of the Mario Amiibos, the characters aren't exactly popular or known among kids. Something like Kid Icarus or Olimar only sticks out to Nintendo fans.

The Skylanders and Disney toys are particularly popular as they have an essential use in the respective games, whereas the Amiibo use feels more tacked on (see Smash Bros, Yoshi's Wooly World or Mario Party 10).
 

Shiggy

Member
After painstakingly trying to get all the Kid Icarus Uprising AR cards (apples and oranges yeah I know), I wouldn't be caught dead trying to do the same thing with Home Designer >_<

I still don't have all the Uprising cards ;_;

Panini sells individual rare cards for €2 on their website.
 

QaaQer

Member
Soon, we'll see their way of expanding the audience for their IPs, though, thanks to mobile games. Iwata even mentoned how he wanted to attract as many customers as possible,not just whales, thus not high concentration of revenue on a small amount of customers. It seems both mobile and amiibo initiatives will go at the same time.

It makes me wonder if he had lost some control as he got closer to death. The pointed comment about certain types of games (i.e. those with gambling mechanics) being a problem for society and not wanting to use those mechanics in Nintendo products comes to mind. Yet random packs are exactly that kind of whale hunting gambling mechanic.
 

Firemind

Member
I mean, I doubt they're getting guest artists to give us wild interpretations of a futon, but they're going to be official renders with professionally designed layouts.
I thought they're only going to make the various AC characters into cards, but you're telling me they're going to make the furniture into cards as well? I... what? And this is coming from someone who collected Looney Tunes, Disney, Jurassic Park, football cards and what-have-you during childhood.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
It makes me wonder if he had lost some control as he got closer to death. The pointed comment about certain types of gaming (i.e. gambling mechanics) being a problem for society runs and not wanting to use those in Nintendo products runs counter to having random packs. Random packs which are exactly that kind of whale hunting gambling mechanic.

I just think these initatives go in different ways, parallel to each other. On the console side, we have a specfic initiative of trying to make their IPs / characters more known, which still results in a pretty big amount of purchases from their fans (but not everyone: amiibo numbers make me think it's not just Nintendo fans buying them, especially in the West), thus we see several specific releases that try to cater more to already-accustomed fans.

On the other hand, on mobile, an unproven territory for them, where they need to bring their IPs to as many people as possible since they actually stated how they want to
1)profit a good amount of money from them
2)expanding the reach of their IPs, thus they can get more people into the "premium experiences" on their consoles
They're going to try to not cater to just whales, but to everyone, thus small amounts of money from lots of people instead of big amunts from a few (relatively).

Also, I wouldn't consider Pokemon Shuffle as an example for now: unless Nintendo states that's the first app, usually Pokemon Company has already mobile experience and has some freedom from Nintendo.
 

Ridley327

Member
I thought they're only going to make the various AC characters into cards, but you're telling me they're going to make the furniture into cards as well? I... what? And this is coming from someone who collected Looney Tunes, Disney, Jurassic Park, football cards and what-have-you during childhood.
I was under the impression that it was a mix of villagers and furniture, but I may have misinterpreted the original announcement.
 

Shiggy

Member
I just think these initatives go in different ways, parallel to each other. On the console side, we have a specfic initiative of trying to make their IPs / characters more known, which still results in a pretty big amount of purchases from their fans (but not everyone: amiibo numbers make me think it's not just Nintendo fans buying them, especially in the West), thus we see several specific releases that try to cater more to already-accustomed fans.

On the other hand, on mobile, an unproven territory for them, where they need to bring their IPs to as many people as possible since they actually stated how they want to
1)profit a good amount of money from them
2)expanding the reach of their IPs, thus they can get more people into the "premium experiences" on their consoles
They're going to try to not cater to just whales, but to everyone, thus small amounts of money from lots of people instead of big amunts from a few (relatively).

Also, I wouldn't consider Pokemon Shuffle as an example for now: unless Nintendo states that's the first app, usually Pokemon Company has already mobile experience and has some freedom from Nintendo.

Pokemon Shuffle isn't really their first app. It's not part of the DeNA partnership and wasn't developed by Nintendo EAD either. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see whether the games will be Pay-to-Continue with Pay-to-Win elements (like Steel Diver), simple Pay-to-Win games (Pokemon Shuffle), or only Pay-to-Continue (Fullblox).
 
I guess if Amiibo Crossing is decent, and its really free to download, and all you need to play it is one $5 pack of cards, that's a decent buy-in.
 

Vena

Member
It makes me wonder if he had lost some control as he got closer to death. The pointed comment about certain types of games (i.e. those with gambling mechanics) being a problem for society and not wanting to use those mechanics in Nintendo products comes to mind. Yet random packs are exactly that kind of whale hunting gambling mechanic.

The mechanics with Amiibo have been effectively unchanged since last year, and their egregiousness has varied per title per developer. Whaling amiibo is the likes of Mario Party where the game is missing an entire mode and demands your purchase of at least four Amiibo to make it even remotely usable. This makes the price of the game not 50$ but 110$, which is a crock of shit.

In this scenario, we're looking at something akin to Splatoon as per Shiggy's source, where you either have the cards do nothing at all aside from side-stepping the RNG or use them to make houses for the characters who are a part of the game but not guests in the usual sense. The cards also double down as a part of the free Festival game, so for a fans of the series they can buy a little here and there without needing to be whales to, effectively, fall in like with Iwata's philosophy, seemingly. If you never have the cards, you can still play HHD unimpeded (as such its a full priced game as per usual with some layered on Amiibo) with the full feature set in there (so in a way its actually less than what Splatoon did, since single-player weapon swapping and mini-games were under the Amiibo. Everything else is just aesthetics.), but without some amiibo the Festival game doesn't work at all. Though Festival also, technically, doesn't even need cards either and can be played entirely with the figures instead.

How Amiibo are implemented or if at all seems to be entirely up to the developer, though, as some still choose to not include anything.

Random packs are trading card staples, and I don't exactly know how else you'd do this short of having a lot of permutations on card packs which would be a nightmare.
 

Ridley327

Member
I guess if Amiibo Crossing is decent, and its really free to download, and all you need to play it is one $5 pack of cards, that's a decent buy-in.
This isn't the game that was being touted as free to download. That's the Wii U game, since Amiibo figures are required to play the game. Amiibo cards are not required to enjoy Happy Home Designer and is playable without them.
 

Draxal

Member
Nintendo should incorporate these f2p loot crate style fleecing schemes into more of their games.

I bet it would considerably improve profit margins, and judging by Amiibo, their audience is very responsible to buying expensive products with marginal in game value.

Like let's take Zelda: Three Swords. They could let you buy grab bags of equipment for $2 a pop instead of only finding them in dungeons.

I mean it's what they're doing with Fire Emblem Cipher, and Amiibo, and all those Nendoroids coming out.

This allows tier 2 (I'd consider animal crossing to be in t2) and tier 3 franchises (something like fire emblem an opportunity to get merchandise).

Random packs are trading card staples, and I don't exactly know how else you'd do this short of having a lot of permutations on card packs which would be a nightmare.

5 fixed 20 card packs? That's not a logistical nightmare at all.
 

oti

Banned
I still don't really understand this game. So it's just the home designing, right? No chores. No gardening, no fishing etc.? So the only thing you do is placing furniture? OK, so how many homes do you get to design in the main game you buy for €40? And every amiibo card brings another character to your village which means one additional home to design? There are 100 characters outside of the main game? How many characters does AC have? I'm confused.
 

213372bu

Banned
For as many shitty Animal Crossing neighbors there are, this is extremely laughable. And selling them in packs of three might mean you have to buy multiple (probably overpriced) packs to get one or two good ones.

This is said from someone who has put hundreds of hours into AC from GC to 3DS
 

Vena

Member
5 fixed 20 card packs? That's not a logistical nightmare at all.

Well that greatly increases the price for one... and means you can scalp and poach certain pack sets. These are supposed to be impulse buy cheap... as with any TCG sales management.

Its an addictive design where the jump in is cheap and you get that addictive thrill of getting something rare.

I still don't really understand this game. So it's just the home designing, right? No chores. No gardening, no fishing etc.? So the only thing you do is placing furniture? OK, so how many homes do you get to design in the main game you buy for &#8364;40? And every amiibo card brings another character to your village which means one additional home to design? There are 100 characters outside of the main game? How many characters does AC have? I'm confused.

Only the special cards seem to do anything, the regular cards just allow you to force a villager to show up in-game rather RNG rolls, you'll still get villagers and guests for house making regardless of card use or not, and yes, all you do is design houses based on the personalities and likings of the villager guest. All of the characters are in the game.
 
This isn't the game that was being touted as free to download. That's the Wii U game, since Amiibo figures are required to play the game. Amiibo cards are not required to enjoy Happy Home Designer and is playable without them.

I thought the cards *could* be used with Amiibo Crossing though (even if they're mainly advertising then for Happy Home Designer). Was I wrong about that?
 
As much as Nintendo is all holier than thou and anti f2p isn't this just a fucking gatcha system where salt awaits. At least you can get rid of unwanted ones I suppose but I really don't like this trend in gaming to unsatisfy people through such mechanic.

Going by Japan prices of 100 yen per card that will about &#8364;3 for a pack and if NOE use the eShop exchange rates that is £2.70 while if they use the actual exchange rate is more like £2.20.

Maybe NOA will be generous and make their 6 packs $5?
With Club Nintendo dead they can't make them Club Nintendo & torunament exclusive, never release the full set and refuse to acknowledge anyone ever winning the sweepstake for them all.

Useful historical data to consider is the Kid Icarus cards as they were retail in Japan and Europe though the Europeans ones were distrod' by Panini which I don't know if that affected price. I remember them being expensive in comparison with other goods Panini are involved in.

Been discussed in the UK amibo thread, here is a link to the product page on Argos. Priced at £9.99, not sure if it is the 3 pack or another variant.

http://www.argos.co.uk/static/Product/partNumber/4178299.htm

YJjvTqoRFgZaM.gif
It was a mistake. Argos now have them at £19.99. WTF.


How many characters does AC have? I'm confused.
Hundreds. There is a Club Nintendo poster of them all that had to reprinted because they got a few names muddled or wrong.

I understand they work something like you can use the cards to guarantee them being part of your village otherwise it is chance if they will arrive.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Basically continuing my former answer to Untalkative_Bunny

The mechanics with Amiibo have been effectively unchanged since last year, and their egregiousness has varied per title per developer. Whaling amiibo is the likes of Mario Party where the game is missing an entire mode and demands your purchase of at least four Amiibo to make it even remotely usable. This makes the price of the game not 50$ but 110$, which is a crock of shit.

In this scenario, we're looking at something akin to Splatoon as per Shiggy's source, where you either have the cards do nothing at all aside from side-stepping the RNG or use them to make houses for the characters who are a part of the game but not guests in the usual sense. The cards also double down as a part of the free Festival game, so for a fans of the series they can buy a little here and there without needing to be whales to, effectively, fall in like with Iwata's philosophy, seemingly. If you never have the cards, you can still play HHD unimpeded (as such its a full priced game as per usual with some layered on Amiibo) with the full feature set in there (so in a way its actually less than what Splatoon did, since single-player weapon swapping and mini-games were under the Amiibo. Everything else is just aesthetics.), but without some amiibo the Festival game doesn't work at all. Though Festival also, technically, doesn't even need cards either and can be played entirely with the figures instead.

How Amiibo are implemented or if at all seems to be entirely up to the developer, though, as some still choose to not include anything.

Random packs are trading card staples, and I don't exactly know how else you'd do this short of having a lot of permutations on card packs which would be a nightmare.

...Yeah, this too.
Even if, honestly, I would've preferred the US solution: blind packs with 6 cards, not just 3. 3 seems indeed not so much.
 

Vena

Member
Really? Damn. Is that confirmed?

We don't know. It's possible that the "special" cards can be used in lieu of their figure equivalent but we don't know.

In general, we know next to nothing about Festival aside from one of its modes and that its purportedly free to play (really, download).
 

oti

Banned
Yes, this is how it works.

Then I don't see myself ever buying a pack. I like AC but I don't have favourite characters I absolutely have to have in my village.


Nintendo should release Pokémon amiibo cards for this. Design Pikachu's home sounds dangerously intriguing.
 

Choomp

Banned
Blind packs, eh? Part of me loves that, actually. Going to let them win with this baloney most likely a buy a lot of that shiz.
 

D-Stubbs

Member
I only collect the figures so screw this. I'll pass.

I'll probably still buy a couple packs for the hell of it.
 

BizzyBum

Member
I'm a big Nintendo fan but I can't defend them on this anymore. This is just getting ridiculous.

Amiibos seemed like a good idea but once Nintendo realized how wildly popular they became they ended up just creating a boatload more and purposely shipped out less units to jack up prices and make it a scalpers paradise.

This is disgusting. I'd rather see Day 1 on disc DLC then this crap.
 

Vena

Member
Lol, screw this. Kind of iffy on Nintendo's business practices in general as of late.

This is the better of their Amiibo practices as of late. This plus SMMaker.

Amiibos seemed like a good idea but once Nintendo realized how wildly popular they became they ended up just creating a boatload more and purposely shipped out less units to jack up prices and make it a scalpers paradise.

?????
 
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