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Animal Crossing Amiibo cards launch 2nd Oct -100 to collect, sold in blind packs of 3
- Thread starter ShogunDarius
- Start date
They already did that with the Pokémon Rumble U NFC figures. It did not go over very well!
BronzeWolf
Banned
Okay, so say you want to own a specific 1/4 of the cards with no duplicates within a pack and no rare cards: that's 125 packs on average (304 packs in at least one run of my simulation).
This guy just wants one card, that's pretty restrained:
At 6 cards a pack, you'd only need to buy around 17 packs to get Rolf. Assuming he's not rare.So about $100 for a restrained scenario.
But he could trade for it very easily after getting a couple of ones, I think. He is not collecting them
ITT, people don't understand the aspect of trading and selling extras.
At least there's no Holographic NFC Isabelle card...yet.
You know, if these are priced $4 for six I won't complain. It'll actually be pretty cool.
I mean, I won't buy many, but if you look at these as the cards they are rather than DLC the idea becomes much less revolting. Pokemon TCG packs are $4.18 for ten cards, and they're normal cardboard-type. These are NFC, meaning a much sturdier product.
If you just want a few cards, I'd definitely just go the eBay route. That or buy two/three packs and trade them out to people on Reddit, or shoot, GAF's own B/S/T. Trading can be fun. I used to trade on a Pokemon site constantly just for the fun of swapping my collection out and refreshing everything (And I do mean constantly, I made over eighty trades in two years).
I won't defend them for it, but coming from a Pokemon background it doesn't seem as bad as it is in many others' eyes.
I mean, I won't buy many, but if you look at these as the cards they are rather than DLC the idea becomes much less revolting. Pokemon TCG packs are $4.18 for ten cards, and they're normal cardboard-type. These are NFC, meaning a much sturdier product.
If you just want a few cards, I'd definitely just go the eBay route. That or buy two/three packs and trade them out to people on Reddit, or shoot, GAF's own B/S/T. Trading can be fun. I used to trade on a Pokemon site constantly just for the fun of swapping my collection out and refreshing everything (And I do mean constantly, I made over eighty trades in two years).
I won't defend them for it, but coming from a Pokemon background it doesn't seem as bad as it is in many others' eyes.
Robin64
Member
Luckily, Isabelle and the other 16 special cards already are holographic shiny type cards.
Nintendo should incorporate these f2p loot crate style fleecing schemes into more of their games.
I bet it would considerably improve profit margins, and judging by Amiibo, their audience is very responsible to buying expensive products with marginal in game value.
Like let's take Zelda: Three Swords. They could let you buy grab bags of equipment for $2 a pop instead of only finding them in dungeons.
I bet it would considerably improve profit margins, and judging by Amiibo, their audience is very responsible to buying expensive products with marginal in game value.
Like let's take Zelda: Three Swords. They could let you buy grab bags of equipment for $2 a pop instead of only finding them in dungeons.
Like the hat?
Banned
I just need Aurora, b-b-baby.
[vomiting intensifies]
YianGaruga
Banned
Hire this man!
Okay, so say you want to own a specific 1/4 of the cards with no duplicates within a pack and no rare cards: that's 62 packs on average (192 packs in at least one run of my simulation).
This guy just wants one card, that's pretty restrained:
At 6 cards a pack, you'd only need to buy around 17 packs to get Rolf. Assuming he's not rare.
If it's like any other TCG, then you can buy single cards on eBay and online stores.
Specific minifigures in the LEGO minifigure collectable series can also be bought online easily enough.
How so? I'm not really following your calculations.
Let's assume it's the same price, dollar for dollar. $3 for a 3 pack, $6 for a 6 pack.
Assuming you're only getting 1 SP card per 6-pack, you're pulling from the SP character pool only once per $6, vs two pulls from the SP pool across two 3-packs. That alone is potentially getting you access to more unique cards for your dollars.
The chances of repeats within one pack are most certainly very, very minimal. That type of thing is an anomaly in any modern CCG packaging these days.
So with that said, the pack of 5 normal characters seems much more likely to bear unique cards vs the pack of 2 normal characters.
Of course, it's hard to really determine the probability without knowing how the packs get sorted into their bigger box, or if the cards are even being made in equal numbers, but this information is often unknown or held secret for things like this.
Mockingbird
Member
Will wait for price before raging.
At this point, Nintendo only has two options: expand their audience or milk their existing userbase. They decided to go for the latter now.
I suck at math. I can't work out why people are complaining that 3 random cards per pack makes it harder than 6 random cards per pack.
Aren't the odds extremely good that you'll get 6 unique cards when you buy two packs of 3, anyway? And then, what's the difference between four lots of 3 per pack, and two lots of 6 per pack? Again, aren't the odds of duplicates very similar?
(Genuine mathematical question.)
Aren't the odds extremely good that you'll get 6 unique cards when you buy two packs of 3, anyway? And then, what's the difference between four lots of 3 per pack, and two lots of 6 per pack? Again, aren't the odds of duplicates very similar?
(Genuine mathematical question.)
Pokemon Trading Card Game is already a thing.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
I specified all of my assumptions in each post; most of the details would serve to inflate the price, not deflate it (i.e. differential rarity of cards makes things harder, not easier). All my numbers come from Monte Carlo simulating 10,000 instances of someone opening packs until they achieve their objective and recording the number of packs it took.
It is true that if there were 2 common and 1 rare card per 3-pack, but 5 common and 1 rare card per 6-pack, the numbers would change. Whether this would benefit you would depend on what your objective is and the relative frequency of each.
I think the people arguing that that are proceeding from the premise that there are, say, 90 "common" cards and 10 "rare" cards, but paradoxically each pack has 1 rare card and the rest common, so over the long run you'll run into duplicates of rare cards more often than duplicates of common cards.
It's called the Pokemon TCG.
Robin64
Member
You get to the stage of getting special card dupes a lot quicker, and then only 66% of your pack of 3 is relevant vs 83% of the pack of 6 being relevant.
This is exactly the case, though.
Says you
Yeah, but you have the excuse of being crazy.
SerTapTap
Member
Not all of us are grade schoolers with tons of friends collecting the cards and trading via mail is pretty high cost relative to the price of a single card
Soon, we'll see their way of expanding the audience for their IPs, though, thanks to mobile games. Iwata even mentoned how he wanted to attract as many customers as possible,not just whales, thus not high concentration of revenue on a small amount of customers. It seems both mobile and amiibo initiatives will go at the same time.
Stump, do your calculations account for the "special" cards?
I tried calculating how many packs I'd have to buy if I just wanted one particular special card. But then I got confused, so fuck it, I'll check eBay after a week.
Edit: Wait this is alot easier than I thought. If there is 1 special card per pack, then I have a 1/17 shot of getting the card I want. Derp.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
How this impacts probability depends on the frequency of each and what your objectives are. If you want 25 common cards and 0 rares, then you're basically buying packs of 2 and 5 cards respectively and the value you get depends on the counterfactual costs of each pack in the world where the pack size would have been 2 or 5. If you want all the cards, then it depends how many different rares there are and how many different commons. If there are only 5 rares but you get one per pack, they're much less rare than commons. If half the cards are rare, but you get one per pack, they're much more rare.
Robin64
Member
17 rares and 83 commons.
Personally I'm just going to enjoy what I get, but I'm curious for those who want to collect every single one too.
Though of course, there will be trading threads on GAF which alleviate most problems. (I'm assuming the cost of a standard letter in America is as cheap as it is here in Europe)
EatChildren
Currently polling second in Australia's federal election (first in the Gold Coast), this feral may one day be your Bogan King.
Should make a Metroid variant so I can waste money pursuing a holo-foil Samus.
That's actually a greally great idea as playing on phones is much more accessible than on a seperate device. Yet they have to prove whether it will be another "get cash" iniative or whether the games are something more substantial that are not solely based on recurring IAP. Only having games like Pokemon Shuffle on smartphones will probably not get them very far.
Amiibos are more targetted at the existing userbase. Kids are busy with Lego and Skylanders which provide a proper gaming platform, whereas Nintendo currently does not have a playground for their Amiibos.
zenosparadox
Member
Man, this looks they are desperate to milk customers dry. Of course, no one is forced to buy any of this. I will definitely sit this round out.
Velcro Fly
Member
I'm terrified that I'm going to be one of those people buying dozens and dozens of packs of these things.
I really only want a few certain ones.
I really only want a few certain ones.
I'm not sure if it's a lack of imagination or a lack of evilness that's making me draw blanks on how you would do a Metroid-specific NFC line and game. I hope it's the latter, at least.
Doesn't matter. I suspect these people weren't planning on buying the cards in the first place.
You don't need to own them all.
You can trade.
You can buy singles.
If they were ultra cheap, then everyone would have the full set, negating trades and the social aspect. The whole point of a game such as this is that you don't have access to every villager, making it interesting and fun to show off your town online or to friends. Scarcity adds both intrinsic and entertainment value.
KirbYuuYuu
Member
To think. This is like what? The third TCG on 3ds?
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Okay, so, with the following assumptions:
- 83 "common" cards, all the same probability each
- 17 "special" cards, all the same probability each
- Each pack has 6 cards, of which 5 are common and 1 is special
- Whether there are duplicates per pack makes very little difference (a few percent)
To complete the set, you'd need on average 85 packs. ($3 -> $255, $5 -> $425, $6 -> 510)
To complete the "special" cards, you'd need on average 57 packs.
To get one specific "special" card, you'd need on average 17 packs (this should be a "duh")
To complete the "normal" cards, you'd need on average 80 packs
To get one specific "normal" card, you'd need on average 17 packs
To get a set of 25 of your fav cards, of which 20 are normal and 5 are special, you'd need on average 62 packs
Why at this point are those two are mutually exclusive? Seeing as they are branching out in other areas like theme parks and licensing their IP out.
Trade/Buy singles if you only need a few.
Guys, don't forget to buy the AC-themed sleeves and albums too
I mean, I doubt they're getting guest artists to give us wild interpretations of a futon, but they're going to be official renders with professionally designed layouts.
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