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Bernie can win in 2016

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ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
And we're 3 weeks out from the primaries. People are going to have to start thinking hard about what values they support in a candidate, and what they want to represent quickly.

The people who vote in primaries will have to. But independent and swing voters have 11 freaking months. There is absolutely the possibility that we haven't seen Bernie's floor yet. Not everyone is that engaged in the democratic primary with all the focus on Trump right now.
 
I don't know about toast, but I agree that he's going to have trouble after NH. It depends on how well he does with any momentum he builds up.

His only path to victory is winning both IA and NH and hoping that endorsements and momentum swing his way as a result. But if they don't, or Clinton wins either...he's toast. He's the Ron Paul of the Democrats.
 
He HAS stumped for them many times. Since the 70s, in the rainbow coalition for Jesse Jackson, and Obama has stumped for him as well.



We do understand it though, because nowhere in Bernie's plan does it say that republican governors have the right to do such a thing. Bernie's camp has already come out strong about her and her daughter lying about that issue, that's why its been so controversial.

In the plan, it states that states only have the basic initial right to craft their own plans according to how their state is set up. But if they refuse to do so based on a minimum requirement set by the federal standard, it says explicitly that the federal clause will kick in and override the state rights on the issue, and a heath care expansion will be made for said state by the feds instead.



True, everyone is. But Bernie is the one putting forth real solutions, and people need to stop being treated like their idiots and get a chance to see that someone is on the right side for once. And this is the closes anyone has come to that in 40 years i would say

It's nice Bernie thinks that, but he's not going to be the one deciding the Constitutionality of that to force Republican governors to set up a law they don't believe in.
 

rjinaz

Member
At least Hilary's campaign is acknowledging Bernie's recent polling numbers:
There are not one, but two new public polls out this week that have us down in Iowa.

Now, you should always take public polling with a grain of salt. But if you thought this race wasn't going to be close, well, it is. This isn't me claiming the sky is falling -- these are just the facts.

Voters will caucus in Iowa in 19 days, and the Sanders campaign is outspending us on TV. It's going to take everyone on this team to stand together and show what a strong organization we've built. We can and will win this nomination if we keep our heads down and stay focused on what matters: the people counting on us and on Hillary.

Robby Mook
Campaign Manager
Hillary for America
 
We do understand it though, because nowhere in Bernie's plan does it say that republican governors have the right to do such a thing. Bernie's camp has already come out strong about her and her daughter lying about that issue, that's why its been so controversial.

In the plan, it states that states only have the basic initial right to craft their own plans according to how their state is set up. But if they refuse to do so based on a minimum requirement set by the federal standard, it says explicitly that the federal clause will kick in and override the state rights on the issue, and a heath care expansion will be made for said state by the feds instead.

That will be challenged in courts. Who knows what the outcome will be? Bernie's plan won't necessarily hold up or be ruled constitutional. Based on the outcomes of previous Supreme Court rulings it isn't out of the realm of sanity to say it won't.

The ACA has been challenged a million times and the government has been shut down over it. Bernies would restart the battle from zero and give the other side a whole new set of positions to attack.

She's basically concern trolling, sure but based on the reaction to the ACA there probably is a good reason to be concerned
 
General election match up polls don't really matter.

Polls saying that only socialists are one of the least likely groups of people to voted for do matter a lot with electability. Especially when Bernie would have to deal with hundreds of millions of dollars of ads calling him a socialist.

That alone is a major hurdle that he would have to overcome.

Obama dealt with the socialist label too. And Hillary will also. The right doesn't fight with facts, they fight with emotion, jingoistic propaganda, and talking points. Regardless of who gets the Democratic nom, they will face the same shitstorm thrown at them from the right. That is not a reason to refuse support for a candidate.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
It's nice Bernie thinks that, but he's not going to be the one deciding the Constitutionality of that to force Republican governors to set up a law they don't believe in.

Constitutionality? States are forced by the feds to do things they don't want to do all the time. That's the point of having federal powers.

Your forced to give marriage licenses to everyone. Its called a law.
 
His only path to victory is winning both IA and NH and hoping that endorsements and momentum swing his way as a result. But if they don't, or Clinton wins either...he's toast. He's the Ron Paul of the Democrats.

IA and NH are like 93% white homogeneous. They are not credible bellweather states

Nevada and South Carolina are going to be colossal Clinton wins
 

reckless

Member
Obama dealt with the socialist label too. And Hillary will also. The right doesn't fight with facts, they fight with emotion, jingoistic propaganda, and talking points. Regardless of who gets the Democratic nom, they will face the same shitstorm thrown at them from the right. That is not a reason to refuse support for a candidate.

You didn't have Obama / Hillary loudly proclaiming they are a socialist. You can talk about how Bernie is a democratic socialist all you want but that really won't matter to people.

There's also the problem of Bernie never being under much scrutiny, Hillary is used to it after decades of republicans trying to destroy her and seems to be better at fighting back.
 
Obama dealt with the socialist label too. And Hillary will also. The right doesn't fight with facts, they fight with emotion, jingoistic propaganda, and talking points. Regardless of who gets the Democratic nom, they will face the same shitstorm thrown at them from the right. That is not a reason to refuse support for a candidate.

You know how Obama fought the label. Which is a hell of a lot different than admitting you are one by the way.

He fought it by hammering home his policy to cut taxes for people earning under 250k a year. Sanders will likely be doing the opposite.

He fought it by hammering home his promise that he's going to go through the deficit line by line, page by page, and reducing the deficit. Sanders will likely be advocating more expansion of government and debt by consequence.

Sanders is not Obama, and neither is Clinton for that matter. Obama had a campaign that knew what had caused Democrats to fail in the past and they turned their weaknesses into a strength by coming up with a message that directly debunked the GOP spin machine.

It's a false comparison and you know it.
 
You know how Obama fought the label. Which is a hell of a lot different than admitting you are one by the way.

He fought it by hammering home his policy to cut taxes for people earning under 250k a year. Sanders will likely be doing the opposite.

He fought it by hammering home his promise that he's going to go through the deficit line by line, page by page, and reducing the deficit. Sanders will likely be advocating more expansion of government and debt by consequence.

Sanders is not Obama, and neither is Clinton for that matter. Obama had a campaign that knew what had caused Democrats to fail in the past and they turned their weaknesses into a strength by coming up with a message that directly debunked the GOP spin machine.

It's a false comparison and you know it.

No it isn't. The right still says Obama is a muslim and isn't a citizen and is a socialist. Hell, there was a disgusting billboard on I35 for years with his photo and a giant red "SOCIALIST" on it. Worrying what the right does, trying to court undecided voters is the lost cause. There are enough Democrats should they actually fucking vote, that republicans would never win the White House ever again. If it wasn't for gerrymandering, congress would be blue as well.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony

I would not particularly vote for them, no.



Each one has certain good points and bad points, but like Hillary or Obama, that's not enough to do what is necessary for this country.

In general, they are largely social conservatives who hate same sex marriage and even worse than that, austerity hawks too, who can't seem to understand that taxes are critically necessary to keep social services going.

The austerity obsession that seems to have been the main solution to budget problems after the crash of 08 is probably one of the worst decisions made by leaders, that is, outside of not getting together to punish their larger corporate entities from engaging in the same kind of speculative mess that lead to that crash.

Again, i will concede that they have certain good viewpoints and stances, but we need a broader level of consistency for not just pro consumer advocacy and anti big business, but the way forward to lower and middle class expansion of quality of life as well.

And i don't think a perfect candidate exists either. Bernie would rather not talk about foreign policy and engaging ISIS in a perpetual ground game if he didn't have to, even though i know he is competent enough on the issue.

And his record on gun control has been shaky as well over the years from a liberal viewpoint, even though he says he has excuses. But outside of those sticking points, he has far more consistency on everything else, and so that is good enough for me.

And i know he actually for the most part believes in his attitude in regards to transforming the country to a new direction, which is most important in my eyes. If your not in it for destroying the business as usual aspects of the system, its almost meaningless.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
You still haven't given me the sources I asked for about him bashing the democrats.

Bernie has obviously criticized the Democrats. And rightly so, they are political cowards and driven by many of the same forces the republicans are, the special interests. Let's not act dumb about that. There's a reason why he was never a democrat.

On the other hand, he caucused with the dems because he thought they were the only party of the 2 that even had any remote understanding of the issues facing the country with certain elements being actually liberal and true to their principles, and in this two party system, running for President as one was the only logical conclusion for him. That was his reasoning in the 70s for supporting the dems, and is his reason for joining them now when he was interviewed this year

Its not a real mystery
 

cj_iwakura

Member
General election match up polls don't really matter.

Polls saying that only socialists are one of the least likely groups of people to voted for do matter a lot with electability. Especially when Bernie would have to deal with hundreds of millions of dollars of ads calling him a socialist.

That alone is a major hurdle that he would have to overcome.

"He's a socialist!"
"Yes I am."

Problem solved.
 
It's strange and kinda sad how many Bernie supporters would rather vote for Trump then Hillary. Do they even know Bernie's positions?

Feels like Hillary supporters generally like Bernie, but many Bernie supporters really don't like Hillary.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Being a socialist so far hasn't seemed to have hurt him or stopped him from gaining almost 30 points in 4 months and being neck and neck with Hillary in key states.

Its just a talking point conservative dems like to throw out because they for some reason like taking from the GOP playbook. I could not believe when Claire Mcaskill tried to dismiss Bernie as a socialist loony nobody in their right mind would vote for.

Like..what is the difference between he two parties again when we're using that argument?
 

cj_iwakura

Member
It's strange and kinda sad how many Bernie supporters would rather vote for Trump then Hillary. Do they even know Bernie's positions?

Feels like Hillary supporters generally like Bernie, but many Bernie supporters really don't like Hillary.

I'd vote for a rabid ferret over Trump.
 

fantomena

Member
It's strange and kinda sad how many Bernie supporters would rather vote for Trump then Hillary. Do they even know Bernie's positions?

Feels like Hillary supporters generally like Bernie, but many Bernie supporters really don't like Hillary.

I also think it's very weird. Might be wherever they think Hillary is bought or not.
 

rjinaz

Member
It's strange and kinda sad how many Bernie supporters would rather vote for Trump then Hillary. Do they even know Bernie's positions?

Feels like Hillary supporters generally like Bernie, but many Bernie supporters really don't like Hillary.

Most of those Bernie supporters, I doubt it. They are voting Sanders to "fight the system". There are plenty of us that will though. I think it's fair to assume most of us will, it's what Bernie will want.
 

reckless

Member
"He's a socialist!"
"Yes I am."

Problem solved.

That really doesn't solve anything...

"Do you believe in something that most Americans deeply dislike?"
"Yes I do and am making it a cornerstone of my campaign."

Somehow turns into a win for Bernie... I feel like i'm missing some important steps in that.
 

dabig2

Member
That's your definition of bashing?

For what it's worth, the Democrats have walked to the right side in politics more and more so there's no wonder Bernie disagreed with the Democrats in a lot of things.

A minority I can assure you. And it's not like this kind of temper-tantrum is new in politics nor really that serious of a proclamation this far from the general:

Gallup 3-28-08: If McCain vs. Obama, 28% of Clinton Backers Go for McCain
A sizable proportion of Democrats would vote for John McCain next November if he is matched against the candidate they do not support for the Democratic nomination. This is particularly true for Hillary Clinton supporters, more than a quarter of whom currently say they would vote for McCain if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.
20080326democrats1.gif


20080326democrats2.gif

As would be expected, almost all Democratic voters who say they support Obama for their party's nomination also say they would vote for him in a general election matchup against McCain. But only 59% of Democratic voters who support Clinton say they would vote for Obama against McCain, while 28% say they would vote for the Republican McCain. This suggests that some Clinton supporters are so strongly opposed to Obama (or so loyal to Clinton) that they would go so far as to vote for the "other" party's candidate next November if Obama is the Democratic nominee.

And more graphs/data from that link.
 

Foffy

Banned
It's strange and kinda sad how many Bernie supporters would rather vote for Trump then Hillary. Do they even know Bernie's positions?

Feels like Hillary supporters generally like Bernie, but many Bernie supporters really don't like Hillary.

I never got the logic here. Maybe people want someone who's an outsider to the current norms and political status quo?

Sanders and Trump may be outsider to traditional views in that system, but their ideas and answers to that are literally two different universes in terms of differing views.

I mean really...Sanders is talking about a system for everyone. Trump has been specifically about the white man who's been put down by the evil "others."
 

Gallbaro

Banned
That will be challenged in courts. Who knows what the outcome will be? Bernie's plan won't necessarily hold up or be ruled constitutional. Based on the outcomes of previous Supreme Court rulings it isn't out of the realm of sanity to say it won't.

The ACA has been challenged a million times and the government has been shut down over it. Bernies would restart the battle from zero and give the other side a whole new set of positions to attack.

She's basically concern trolling, sure but based on the reaction to the ACA there probably is a good reason to be concerned
ACA sucks and needs to be replaced by single payer and price controls.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
It's strange and kinda sad how many Bernie supporters would rather vote for Trump then Hillary. Do they even know Bernie's positions?

Feels like Hillary supporters generally like Bernie, but many Bernie supporters really don't like Hillary.

In general, there's a strong new sentiment of people who hate politicians who are bought and paid for.

People don't want corporate shills in the white house any longer, and even though Trump is not the right way and cares little for the people, some voters are desperate to not support her on that reason alone.

Frankly, i'd just abstain from voting. I'm not gonna give Trump a vote, but i'm not going to support someone who i don't think represents me either.

Hillary will have plenty of other people to support her in that case, if they believe what she says.
 

cj_iwakura

Member
That really doesn't solve anything...

"Do you believe in something that most Americans deeply dislike?"
"Yes I do and am making it a cornerstone of my campaign."

Somehow turns into a win for Bernie... I feel like i'm missing some important steps in that.

He's never shied away from it. They'd be idiots to make that the focus of attack ads.
 

reckless

Member
In general, there's a strong new sentiment of people who hate politicians who are bought and paid for.

People don't want corporate shills in the white house any longer, and even though Trump is not the right way and cares little for the people, some voters are desperate to not support her on that reason alone.

Frankly, i'd just abstain from voting. I'm not gonna give Trump a vote, but i'm not going to support someone who i don't think represents me either.

Hillary will have plenty of other people to support her in that case, if they believe what she says.

Abstaining is effectively giving Trump and Republican (down ticket races) a vote.
 

rjinaz

Member
I haven't read any updates on his demos for a while, but has Bernie made any successful inroads into any group besides young, white people?

I thought I read he was doing better with Latino voters in the recent polls. Wouldn't surprise me, lots of Latinos I know are pro Bernie.
 
He did some videos with Killer Mike a while back, so he has to have some pull in the urban demographic.

Uh, no offense, but that sounds like GOP levels of trying to appeal to black people. What I'm asking is if his actual numbers amongst minority groups have seen an appreciable upswing.
 

Holmes

Member
Just because someone owns up to something that a lot of people dislike (people who he needs to win), doesn't mean they'll shrug it off and stop caring.
 
I never got the logic here. Maybe people want someone who's an outsider to the current norms and political status quo?

Sanders and Trump may be outsider to traditional views in that system, but their ideas and answers to that are literally two different universes in terms of differing views.

I mean really...Sanders is talking about a system for everyone. Trump has been specifically about the white man who's been put down by the evil "others."
Personally, I think it's just posturing and trying to scare or pressure the opposition. No one is actually going to vote for Trump if their candidate isn't nominated, and I'm sure that's true for both Bernie and Hillary supporters.
 
Personally, I think it's just posturing and trying to scare or pressure the opposition. No one is actually going to vote for Trump if their candidate isn't nominated, and I'm sure that's true for both Bernie and Hillary supporters.

I won't be so sure about that. The rhetoric coming out of a lot of Sanders supporters sound a lot more ideological than what you normally see from Democrats. I'm not entirely sure all of them would approach the GE pragmatically.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I won't be so sure about that. The rhetoric coming out of a lot of Sanders supporters sound a lot more ideological than what you normally see from Democrats. I'm not entirely sure all of them would approach the GE pragmatically.

No one can name one Hillary supporter on this board who has said they would abstain or vote for Trump(in the general). All of us have said we would vote for bernie if he was the nominee including myself. I'd have extreme reservations on his chances but I am a loyal Democrat in the end.
 

Knoxcore

Member
Bernie's idealistic and almost utopian view of what America should be is why he will never be able to govern should he be elected POTUS. GOP will never support his agenda and I don't think Bernie has it in him to compromise on the issues that are the cornerstone of his campaign. Bernie may be great for the party in the short term but in the long run I imagine it won't go over do well.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
I haven't read any updates on his demos for a while, but has Bernie made any successful inroads into any group besides young, white people?

In cali, his support with Latinos jumped to 30% or jumped 30%, i forget exactly which it was.

In general, his base is expanding as people learn about him, so the tent is growing beyond that one portion you mentioned.
 

Tesseract

Banned
Bernie's idealistic and almost utopian view of what America should be is why he will never be able to govern should he be elected POTUS. GOP will never support his agenda and I don't think Bernie has it in him to compromise on the issues that are the cornerstone of his campaign. Bernie may be great for the party in the short term but in the long run I imagine it won't go over do well.

bollworms, america is whatever we will it to be
 
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