It is worth nothing.
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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
- Thread starter Gurish
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It is worth nothing.
MDSLKTR
Member
Do you honestly believe your logic?
Diddy Kong
Banned
As the price drops and Nintendo fills out the software, yes.
valkillmore
Member
I think they'll have slightly higher sales than Wii U, but that price is a crippler. And as fun as 1 2 Switch and Arms look, the fact that none of them are pack-ins means they can't expect a similar phenomenon to Wii. It's a mistake to not include 1 2 Switch in the box.
First Nintendo console I won't be getting at launch.
First Nintendo console I won't be getting at launch.
It doesn't really mean anything. Launch sales numbers will probably be good, that's what's following that is problematic.
My main fear right now is it seems that some of Japan development scene has turned on to Switch but it is too late, i.e. Nintendo bungled third party relations when they're sitting on something with promise. SMT seemed far off. Sega had nothing to say. Octopath looked cool but DQ has been more Nintendo bullish for generations now and I don't take it being there to say much. In the background 3DS support continues. Where was Monster Hunter? Where was gained multi platform support?
I guess the way it seems is developers were counting Nintendo out and transitioning to PS4 despite its weakness in Japan from Vita and even (more slowly, Switch seems to be cutting this off atm but it seems it was underway from rumors) 3DS. Nintendo should've been laying the groundwork for Switch earlier on. But that's not Nintendo.
...
I think Switch's ceiling is 60 million and its floor is like 15-25 million. Right now I'm feeling it'll hit closer to its floor.
I guess the way it seems is developers were counting Nintendo out and transitioning to PS4 despite its weakness in Japan from Vita and even (more slowly, Switch seems to be cutting this off atm but it seems it was underway from rumors) 3DS. Nintendo should've been laying the groundwork for Switch earlier on. But that's not Nintendo.
...
I think Switch's ceiling is 60 million and its floor is like 15-25 million. Right now I'm feeling it'll hit closer to its floor.
That's because when the $300 price tag was revealed people thought that'd be one of the only 2 or 3 issues, turns out there were more issues than that.
killatopak
Gold Member
So is the wii u right?
Papacheeks
Banned
You do know because it's a world wide launch right? That's why they have less consoles to sell to larger amount of people wanting to buy them equals selling out quicker.
PS4 did not do world wide release in November, they released in certain territories then released later in Japan along with other territories.
What if they introduce a Switch Ambassador program? It would show that people were on to their shit, and they fuck up like with the 3DS.
Not Spaceghost
Spaceghost
The launch is gonna be insane that's for sure, it's 6 months later that will be telling.
jabberwocker
Banned
opposed to questioning it without giving any refuting arguement ... well yes.. yes I do
BronzeWolf
Banned
Honestly I am a little bit worried about it. I will have a rough start that's for sure. Hardware prices are steep
But I remain positively confident that the library of the switch will turn it around in no time. The library is poised to increase impressively as 2017 goes along
But I remain positively confident that the library of the switch will turn it around in no time. The library is poised to increase impressively as 2017 goes along
I see it being a 3DS type of situation. Stumbles out the gate, suffers some early software droughts, starts picking up when Animal Crossing and Pokemon hit.
Begins to make real solid gains when they put out a Switch Mini with a more portable-focused form factor.
Probably won't eclipse the 3DS, but it'll end up more along those lines than Wii U.
Begins to make real solid gains when they put out a Switch Mini with a more portable-focused form factor.
Probably won't eclipse the 3DS, but it'll end up more along those lines than Wii U.
Ummm..... with all the news Ive been catching up on I am inclined to say no. Price is one thing but it really just seems like Nintendo isnt ready. Maybe they can recover but Im not going to hold my breath. I was cautiously excited and planning to be there day 1 but with everything Ive read so far, Ill revisit next year. Maybe by then the games library will be beefed up and price has come down.
jabberwocker
Banned
I understand... but 2 million in 24 hours vs 4 in a few months...
Lets just see where we are in 6 months..
Prototype Viktor
Member
It'll do 1.5 times what Scorpio does in 2 years
I know thats not answering the question
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
I'm very biased for Nintendo, but also live in the real world. I honestly think no one can predict what the Switch will be. It's the first of it's kind in the mainstream. I'm very excited though, as I love my Nintendo handhelds, and playing an epic 3D Zelda on the go is going to be fucking amazing.
Gamestop Has Already Sold Out Their Wii U Deluxe Pre-Orders
Preorders for a console selling out means nothing
orthodoxy1095
Banned
I don't see how that's relevant, since the PS4/X1 should have fine legs and room for growth still, but fine.
Then we get into a discussion of how many of those 50+ million households want a secondary console. I doubt it's that high of a number.
kikonawa
Member
Can't you blame people? It was an horrible presentation except for Mario and Zelda. Add that the paid online service, and overpriced controls/accessories and you can't see why the hype died for a lot of people
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
Right in time for Mario Odyssey.
Markitron
Is currently staging a hunger strike outside Gearbox HQ while trying to hate them to death
I just seen the paltry launch line-up of 5 games and it had me thinking back to the N64's launch here in Europe, 20 years before the Switch launch. I remember it having a barren launch line-up and a sever game drought in it's first year.
But the N64 launched with Mario 64, Pilotwings and Waverace. Within a few months we had Blast Corps, ISS 64, Mario Kart 64 and Lylat Wars (that's right, I used it's proper title). Before the end of the year we had GoldenEye and Diddy Kong Racing.
Standards have really changed, the N64's first year was considered a joke at the time, the Switch would kill to have a first year half as good.
But the N64 launched with Mario 64, Pilotwings and Waverace. Within a few months we had Blast Corps, ISS 64, Mario Kart 64 and Lylat Wars (that's right, I used it's proper title). Before the end of the year we had GoldenEye and Diddy Kong Racing.
Standards have really changed, the N64's first year was considered a joke at the time, the Switch would kill to have a first year half as good.
jabberwocker
Banned
of course it doesnt...
31GhostsIV
Banned
It's screwed initially. Zelda isn't even the draw it should be because it's on the U as well. The line-up for the year is so sparse they're mentioning a Street Fighter II port. Not IV... but II.
Once again, they'll likely start the VC from scratch, doing themselves out of having hundreds of classic titles ready to go to ease the pain of the slow first year.
Oh, and the pricing is appalling for yet another underpowered Nintendo machine. And hahahahahaha paid-for Nintendo online.
It's a shame, the original reveal had me genuinely excited for this.
Maybe if they lower the price of everything for Xmas and the Mario release...
Once again, they'll likely start the VC from scratch, doing themselves out of having hundreds of classic titles ready to go to ease the pain of the slow first year.
Oh, and the pricing is appalling for yet another underpowered Nintendo machine. And hahahahahaha paid-for Nintendo online.
It's a shame, the original reveal had me genuinely excited for this.
Maybe if they lower the price of everything for Xmas and the Mario release...
Portugeezer
Member
Even though I am OK with the price, the need to hot sub 250 for this to be big.
always crazy bacon
Banned
Switch should have been the same software architecture able to run on a more powerful home console and a portable. In the way I can buy an iOS game and have it play well depending on the device I'm using.
One software, 2 hardware and cloud saves for transferring or saves on the game card.
One software, 2 hardware and cloud saves for transferring or saves on the game card.
Super_Cobra
Member
The Wii U and Xbox one did great with pre orders and initial launch sales. The question is for how long.
People don't want to keep buying accessories to be able to play games. No people don't want to pay extra money to get a memory card for their $300 console. Much less for their much inferior online infrastructure compared to Xbox live and psn.
Suburban Thug
Member
Just because they don't sell the hardware for a loss doesn't mean the Switch will be profitable. There are salaries to pay. Marketing costs money. HD game development costs millions. R&D. Probably other things I'm missing too. If the margin is $50 (pulling this number out of my ass) but it sells horrible who cares?
TreasureHunterG
Banned
Although I agree launch lineup, third-party support and specs looks lackluster, there's a lot of cynicism here. This won't be a Wii U 2 situation, Nintendo is doing a good job in advertising the machine and there's no confusion about what it is like Wii U. Hell, despite being reliant on Zelda, it's a far better bet to sell the system at launch than Nintendoland and NSMB U, two games clearly targeted at casuals. Not to mention now Nintendo will dedicate their full efforts into it, as both console and handheld division were merged into one, expect it to have the same dedication that Nintendo gave for their portable systems, which were they focus, as Iwata administration became more and more portable driven.
There won't be a split of support, something that caused many droughts and plagued Nintendo consoles for generations because they didn't had enough man power to support both systems. Now this problem seems gone.
The really problem here it was the over secrecy Nintendo went through these last years about Switch. That was unnecessary and how badly they made the presentation indicated they were trying to hide something or dodge the heat of what's wrong for the last minute. Many Nintendo devs projects are MIA and with the over secrecy there was expectations everything would be revealed at once. I think Nintendo is having a really hard time to adapt themselves to modern technology as their were too much portable focused and skipped a whole hardware generation with Wii, a mistake they are now struggling to reverse.
There won't be a split of support, something that caused many droughts and plagued Nintendo consoles for generations because they didn't had enough man power to support both systems. Now this problem seems gone.
The really problem here it was the over secrecy Nintendo went through these last years about Switch. That was unnecessary and how badly they made the presentation indicated they were trying to hide something or dodge the heat of what's wrong for the last minute. Many Nintendo devs projects are MIA and with the over secrecy there was expectations everything would be revealed at once. I think Nintendo is having a really hard time to adapt themselves to modern technology as their were too much portable focused and skipped a whole hardware generation with Wii, a mistake they are now struggling to reverse.
Bubba_Sparks
Member
I thought the presentation was very well done! I'm just not sure about the pricing up here in Canada. During the presentation they said - or I thought the said - $299 in North America, so I was kind of like that is an alright price. I checked Best Buy this morning, and it is retailing for $399.99. That's more expensive than I paid for my PlayStation 4 Slim with Uncharted 4!
Regardless of the pricing issue, I think the hardware looks well designed and I think they executed on their vision of a portable home console very well. It remains to be seen how the broader market will respond to the software available as well as the pricing.
Regardless of the pricing issue, I think the hardware looks well designed and I think they executed on their vision of a portable home console very well. It remains to be seen how the broader market will respond to the software available as well as the pricing.
Mihos
Gold Member
Nintendo will not drop the price.
joecanada
Member
every launch console sells out. means nothing unless you are offering number of units shipped to retailiers??
I expect the first few NPD's Switch sells quite well and some people start serving crow a bit early then a moderate drop followed by a holiday rise, then right about FEB 2018, the dog days set in and unless there are massive game releases, it settles in to a fairly meh realm of sales............ I am most interested in the first few NPD's not the sales but the percent drop from month to month.
However I do think they can get some 3ds and some Wiiu fans so combining those fan bases I think it will do better than WiiU.....
50-60 million lifetime.
jabberwocker
Banned
the online part is probably the worse news of it all... as the games will come out and the prices will come down
hopefully they react to the online strategy
Refuting arguments:
1)EXTREMELY LOW SUPPLY CHAIN thus its not hard to sell out when you only make 3 of them per retail location, lol.
2)the bulk of console releases sell out of pre-orders...even consoles that ended up ultimately failing...for example the Wii U.
jabberwocker
Banned
Thats not bad though.. Who is really expecting it to catch wii sales??
60 milllion.. is what nes or snes numbers thats pretty respectable.
Ninja Scooter
Member
That puts Nintendo in a tougher spot because they are trying to serve two markets. It's the same issue with the Wii U, where they tried to have one foot in with the casuals and one foot in with the core and ended up unable to serve either side adequately. The Switch could be too expensive for the kids and handheld market and not powerful or diverse enough for the core console gamers. Yeah they have the "but it's a portable AND a console" gimmick to fall back on, but how huge of a market does that kind of crossover represent?
Suburban Thug
Member
You realize that
A. Scalpers exist
and
B. Wii U sold out online quickly as well because early adopter fans will buy anything from them no questions asked
I wouldn't try to draw the comparison that online preorders = success
jabberwocker
Banned
where have you read that there are only 3 available....
Also it is not the fact that it is selling out it is the fact of how quick..
Schopenhauerian
Member
Hmm, plenty of folks in that thread are reporting that they were able to successfully pre-order the system through Amazon:
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