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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
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thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Isn't this supposed to replace the next handheld as well? If so I imagine Nintendo has to at least be targeting 60 million conservatively, over 4 times as many units as Wii U sold.
But yeah, it's probably safe to say it will fall somewhere between the worst selling and best selling major party console of all time.
Yekshemesh
Member
jaxapollo
Nintendo Try Hard
(Today, 05:03 PM)
Nintendo Try Hard
(Today, 05:03 PM)
At the start, I think it'll be Gamecube-like. But as more of the sorts of games that come to 3DS start hitting it (Pokemon, Animal Crossing, RPGs), I think it'll take off. I hope by the end of its time it'll be 3DS-like. ...but man do they need games to get there.
Tangent: What allows one to vote in a poll like this? I can't.
Tangent: What allows one to vote in a poll like this? I can't.
trying not to laugh at work
Simbabbad
Member
It's a home console with a touch screen like the Wii U, except, for the negative:
- It's more expensive.
- You can't play it with the screen turned on, you have to first dock it, remove the controllers, and put the controllers on the grip. Convenient.
- No dual screen gameplay (Splatoon map and instantaneous teleportation to your mates, inventory in Wind Waker, map in Pikmin 3 with "go there" function, etc.) or something like Super Mario Maker where you can naturally design on the touchscreen and then play on the TV in a second with a Wiimote held NES style.
- You have to pay for online.
- No Miiverse.
- Joy-cons are basically Wiimotes, except they're much more tiny, much less comfortable, you have to rebuy them all, and they're ridiculously expensive.
- No backward compatibility whatsoever.
- Launch lineup is mostly ports that look the exact same (except you have to pay for online, of course).
- Nothing so far show any sort of significant visual gap.
- It's even more confusing than the Wii U.
Now the theoretically positive:
- Now you can take the screen anywhere and use it as a portable. Except the battery life is ridiculous and nobody will use this as a portable.
This will bomb so hard.
And you can look at my post history, I've always mostly defended Nintendo. But this is a terrible misfire and I don't see how it can survive.
Caipirinha
Member
Right... So the Switch is going to be dead within the year then.
Fucking WOW.
Brand power did carry the PS3.
I'm seeing people claiming that it isn't, or that Nintendo didn't prove that at least, when even launch Wii U ports clearly show that. We'll see how big the gap is down the road, when titles made from the scratch for the system will come out. Mario already looks better than 3DW despite being an open world title compared to a linear one, we'll see by how much when it comes out in ~10 months.
Personally i'm curious to see how DQXI runs. It's a game made on UE4, an engine ready to take advantage of FP16, Vulkan and Nvidia hardware in general, if Square is actually putting effort in it that should be a very good benchmark for what the system can do, and how it compares to current gen consoles as well.
Oh believe me, i certainly don't like the pricing, and i don't intend to buy one for 329€ (i'm in Europe). I'm currently trying to find some deals to bring at least around 230.
To be fair, your average consumer probably doesn't care at all. I had a friend over last week and he couldn't believe Xenoblade X graphics were real.
Oh i didn't take you for an hater, i just disagree. The only actually bad things in your list are pricing and online fee, and the former isn't even worse than the Wii U, which came out for 349$.
Mikey Jr.
Member
I'm calling it. Gamecube tier.
WiiU was an absolute catastrophic failure, but you could already see it heading down that path before it was released. Same with the wii. You could see it heading towards mega success.
You can almost predict the path the switch will have at this point.
1. Will sell huge numbers week/month one.
2. Months on, sales will start to taper off.
3. Resurges again in holiday with release of Mario
4. Switch sales fall off a cliff in new year.
Third party is crucial. And I honestly don't see the switch having good third party. I think you'll get token 3rd party games, and then it'll slowly die off, and then that'll be the end of the switch in the west atleast. I think it'll do well in Japan.
WiiU was an absolute catastrophic failure, but you could already see it heading down that path before it was released. Same with the wii. You could see it heading towards mega success.
You can almost predict the path the switch will have at this point.
1. Will sell huge numbers week/month one.
2. Months on, sales will start to taper off.
3. Resurges again in holiday with release of Mario
4. Switch sales fall off a cliff in new year.
Third party is crucial. And I honestly don't see the switch having good third party. I think you'll get token 3rd party games, and then it'll slowly die off, and then that'll be the end of the switch in the west atleast. I think it'll do well in Japan.
Simbabbad
Member
How so exactly? What does it have the Wii U didn't?
Exactly.
And the wheels, LOL. Remember what happened to the Wii wheels? Everybody stopped using those pretty fast.
No, the ps3 carried itself by getting its shit together and having a solid comeback plan after its horribly overpriced first 2 years. Brand power carrying the ps3 would mean that it never would have been in the situation it was in the first years of its life.
Weltall Zero
Member
I'm not sure what your point even is, but it sure isn't what I was replying to. Anyway, of all the things Nintendo should be worried about now, a Vita successor isn't one of them. Portables no longer compete with each other, they compete with phones and tablets, and they're losing the war.
Fallout-with-swords
Banned
I don't understand why Nintendo won't just make a console that is a box with a traditional controller that is as powerful as their competition.
Nintendo has incredibly popular game franchises that have been around for decades, that are part of popular culture and that millions of people are nostalgic for.
If there damn console could ALSO play comparable versions of: Fifa, Call of Duty, GTA, Battlefield, Star Wars Battlefront, Madden, NBA, Overwatch, and all of the other popular third party games, they would have this thing in the bag.
This is ignoring the fact that they are years behind in terms of online gaming, but I feel strongly that most people who buy consoles (Not people who follow and have strong opinions about the game's industry) would choose a console that plays the third party games they want while also playing Nintendo franchises. Whether it's nostalgia, the idea of having a console that has mature games as well as things that are also suitable for kids, or that they know Nintendo usually makes good first party games.
It just seems so simple, but they handicapped their system by making it portable. Power isn't everything but when it prevents the majority of the most popular games from coming to your system, it's a big deal.
Nintendo has incredibly popular game franchises that have been around for decades, that are part of popular culture and that millions of people are nostalgic for.
If there damn console could ALSO play comparable versions of: Fifa, Call of Duty, GTA, Battlefield, Star Wars Battlefront, Madden, NBA, Overwatch, and all of the other popular third party games, they would have this thing in the bag.
This is ignoring the fact that they are years behind in terms of online gaming, but I feel strongly that most people who buy consoles (Not people who follow and have strong opinions about the game's industry) would choose a console that plays the third party games they want while also playing Nintendo franchises. Whether it's nostalgia, the idea of having a console that has mature games as well as things that are also suitable for kids, or that they know Nintendo usually makes good first party games.
It just seems so simple, but they handicapped their system by making it portable. Power isn't everything but when it prevents the majority of the most popular games from coming to your system, it's a big deal.
It actually can be portable. Wii u was tethered and really only provided off screen play.
white dynamite
Member
The $300 price tag isn't that bad. What raises red flags for me is all of the things surrounding the system that lead me to believe Nintendo has learned nothing from its past failings.
I love Nintendo. It's my childhood. Their first party games will always hold a special place in my heart, but this looks like a flop in the making. I see it doing barely better than WiiU, and that's me being optimistic.
Someone needs to take a switch to the back of their head, so maybe they can wake up and join the rest of us in 2017.
I love Nintendo. It's my childhood. Their first party games will always hold a special place in my heart, but this looks like a flop in the making. I see it doing barely better than WiiU, and that's me being optimistic.
Someone needs to take a switch to the back of their head, so maybe they can wake up and join the rest of us in 2017.
OrbitalBeard
Member
I also believe the Switch is a pretty compelling product that can overcome the current mistakes being made by Nintendo if they're up to it, whereas the Wii U was never a compelling device to begin with and all the help in the world wouldn't have saved it.
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thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Isn't that more or less what they tried with the Gamecube, other than the disk format.
That's great and all and this question doesn't just go to you, but anyone who thinks the console will be a hit: Do you honestly think that it will be very successful at it's current launch price point?
As in there will be 12 consecutive months where it's selling at 2x the rate that the Wii U did? Even against the competition?
Parapraxis
Member
Let's see that post where somebody said that it was less powerful than WiiU, please.
AppleBlade
Member
I think it will sell at a rate simliar to the original Wii, possibly a tad more. They won't have the branding issue the Wii U had (People thinking it was a Wii accessory), it'll be a very versatile system for almost any demographic. The consolidation of the console and portable dev teams will be huge.
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Theonik
Member
Sounds like this one time I got drunk in a hostess club.
The PS3 did have the benefit of coming out at a time that brand was still relevant though. It's like people think it's 1992 or something.
IrishNinja
Member
wait, GC & WU sales are grouped now? thought the GC was 20 million plus, is the WU in any way creeping up on that? i don't really follow sales-age
FairXchange
Member
People are being super negative (not saying it's unjustified) which is unfortunate. I think it's an intriguing product, and I believe Nintendo will deliver a lot of quality software for it. Will it flop? I hope not.
Absolutely. The elevator pitch for the Switch is definitely one that can get people excited.
mario_O
Member
I mean...it's definitely going to sell more than the WiiU but less than the Wii, lol. I know that's a broad claim but it's true. The general public outside the internet/forums bubble is already more aware of this thing than they have ever been about the WiiU.
I think it'll do okay. All the "100% DOA! Nintendo's last console for REAL this time!!" is the same wishful thinking rubbish from people who think they're getting Mario and Zelda on PS5 as it's always been.
I think it'll do okay. All the "100% DOA! Nintendo's last console for REAL this time!!" is the same wishful thinking rubbish from people who think they're getting Mario and Zelda on PS5 as it's always been.
nogoodnamesleft
Banned
I was SO DOWN for the switch based on concept alone. My commute to work is only 1 hour each way so battery wasnt a huge issue. I was ready and on board.
BUt for $470AUD they can get fucked. I still cant believe the horrible mistakes made with this console after the Wii U was such a disaster.
I am still going to buy it eventually since i am totally in love with the concept itself. I am NOT in love with the price of console and accessories and the rest of the other asinine decisions made (paid to play online with laughable benefits to doing so, paid app chat on a mobile phone WTF, AWFUL *home console* specs, pathetic game lineup so far)
The Gamecube's failure is a classic case of Nintendo's arrogance. From misunderstanding the market, to royalty fees being nearly twice than the PS2 and XBox, to purposely trying to harm 3rd party games on their system before launch. The mini disc was a major issue with the Gamecube, but honestly, the thing that harmed it the most was what was going on internally within the company.
At this point, I wonder if a family of consoles would've worked better than a 2-in-1. I love the idea of games on cartridges and unified development, but maybe that would've been more fruitful with separate dedicated consoles.
I suppose stuff like local multiplayer and the joy-cons would be different, but then the price points would presumably be more appropriate, and the hardware properly optimized for either home or portable.
I suppose stuff like local multiplayer and the joy-cons would be different, but then the price points would presumably be more appropriate, and the hardware properly optimized for either home or portable.
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
Flop. Then Disney buys Nintendo and gets stuck in the same theme park situation they are stuck in with Marvel right now.
I voted GameCube tier level of success.
Yet I'm even doubting that myself because Nintendo is charging for online services.
This doesn't bode well for me because I don't know what the service price will be, what services will be offered, and what could you even play on it besides Splatoon, Mario Kart, and Smash (maybe)?
I already pay for PS+, I love Nintendo's software, but damn this is a hard pill to swallow. Lastly, fucking lol for them charging you to buy the companion app for the Switch along with the absurd prices for the pro controller and Joy-con prices. HA!
Yet I'm even doubting that myself because Nintendo is charging for online services.
This doesn't bode well for me because I don't know what the service price will be, what services will be offered, and what could you even play on it besides Splatoon, Mario Kart, and Smash (maybe)?
I already pay for PS+, I love Nintendo's software, but damn this is a hard pill to swallow. Lastly, fucking lol for them charging you to buy the companion app for the Switch along with the absurd prices for the pro controller and Joy-con prices. HA!
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
I suspect this could be the last hardware Nintendo releases. Their handheld division can no longer prop up the company's abysmal console sales. And their handheld sales are quickly deteriorating. With SWITCH having a small hardware install base, their first party software won't sell, and clearly their lacking third party titles won't sell either. Nintendo's stingy approach to hardware (and now services) costs will ultimately be their undoing that ends up hurting their software teams, which is really unfortunate. The lack of strong hardware / software sales means that Nintendo's revenues are much smaller and they won't be able to justify the operating costs of their larger first party teams.
I don't really think the Nintendo SWITCH is a bad product. But it's being positioned for an early grave, one that Nintendo is putting all of its cards into. SEGA had two disastrous releases back to back, and I feel that's exactly what's happening to Nintendo. Sure, Dreamcast was a great console, right? I think SWITCH could be too, but it's a situation of 'too little, too late' just like it was for them.
The right moves for the Switch were to position it as a no-brainer secondary console at a price that undercuts their competition, have an immediately large and robust first party lineup out of the gate, and make their online service better, free of cost, and where your game collection translates from one generation to the next without any additional purchases. What they've done is the opposite -- It's more expensive than the competition, it's less powerful, it has a much weaker lineup of titles. They NEEDED momentum and a humongous launch with positive word of mouth.
I really thought that the SWITCH was Nintendo learning their mistakes from the Wii U, but it seems like they're repeating them. I was originally going to buy one at launch, but now I certainly won't bother. I have no faith that the system will be a success and that Nintendo will be able to support it for many years to come. Which is a shame, because Mario and Zelda both look great, but to many people they are not system sellers like they used to be with all the abundance of AAA content elsewhere. I have plenty to play as it is.
I don't doubt that eventually SWITCH may have a ton of great games if all of Nintendo's teams are working on it, but again, by that time the market will have spoken. The SWITCH will be a forgotten disaster that floundered in the market and is no longer worth pursuing...and when you've finally merged your two platforms into one....and that one platform fails...what's next? I only really see third party being an option.
I don't really think the Nintendo SWITCH is a bad product. But it's being positioned for an early grave, one that Nintendo is putting all of its cards into. SEGA had two disastrous releases back to back, and I feel that's exactly what's happening to Nintendo. Sure, Dreamcast was a great console, right? I think SWITCH could be too, but it's a situation of 'too little, too late' just like it was for them.
The right moves for the Switch were to position it as a no-brainer secondary console at a price that undercuts their competition, have an immediately large and robust first party lineup out of the gate, and make their online service better, free of cost, and where your game collection translates from one generation to the next without any additional purchases. What they've done is the opposite -- It's more expensive than the competition, it's less powerful, it has a much weaker lineup of titles. They NEEDED momentum and a humongous launch with positive word of mouth.
I really thought that the SWITCH was Nintendo learning their mistakes from the Wii U, but it seems like they're repeating them. I was originally going to buy one at launch, but now I certainly won't bother. I have no faith that the system will be a success and that Nintendo will be able to support it for many years to come. Which is a shame, because Mario and Zelda both look great, but to many people they are not system sellers like they used to be with all the abundance of AAA content elsewhere. I have plenty to play as it is.
I don't doubt that eventually SWITCH may have a ton of great games if all of Nintendo's teams are working on it, but again, by that time the market will have spoken. The SWITCH will be a forgotten disaster that floundered in the market and is no longer worth pursuing...and when you've finally merged your two platforms into one....and that one platform fails...what's next? I only really see third party being an option.
dano1
A Sheep
I own 3 Nintendo consoles including the WiiU but this thing does nothing great! I will NEVER use the handheld part of this thing and because of it my home console specs are garbage! I'm just glad Zelda is still coming to the WiiU! Nintendo needs to stick with what they know how to do and that's make some of the best games ever made!!
Lord Malachite
Member
Based on what we've seen, I expect the Switch to flatline shortly after it's initial launch. The price is absurd, the accessories aren't priced in reality, and Nintendo thinking it can get away with charging for online gaming and other features over their very lackluster network was just soul-numbingly disheartening. Everything about the Switch just tells me what an awesome value the PS4 Slim and XB1S are right now by comparison.
I'm pretty confident the Switch will ultimately be another Wii U. Nintendo seems so tone deaf it's almost scary. They seem to be doubling down on the mistakes made with the Wii U.
I'm pretty confident the Switch will ultimately be another Wii U. Nintendo seems so tone deaf it's almost scary. They seem to be doubling down on the mistakes made with the Wii U.
30yearsofhurt
Member
Here's the thing. They weren't be able to drop the price on the Wii U because of the stupid gamepad. Now they have the same gamepad but it's got an nVidia chip in it and you know they don't sell their stuff cheap. At least with the Wii U you had Dick Smiths offloading them at a loss to get rid of them. Who's gonna do that this time?
Just compare US sales to European sales, PS3 vs Xbox 360, Sony did take the right steps to salvage their console, but it was mainly due to PS brand power in Europe (combined with lack of Xbox one) that they were truly able to finish the generation "even". Hell, you don't need to go farther than Neogaf where the majority of users are North American and felt that the 360 had completely annihilated the PS3 when the numbers tell a far different
Conversely you can say that the Xbox brand power prevented the Xbox from being completely anhihilated in the US, whether in the rest of the world the X1 felts even more like a non presence than the 360 ever did.
Nintendo does have this kind of power in the handheld side, it'll be interesting to see if the Switch carries it (it's not looking good)
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thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
That's a very good point. They could even eventually shrink the size of it and sell it like a true handheld, or release a version with no screen or batteries for a cheaper price.
Wii U was shackled to the gamepad because every single game used it to some degree, big or small, but I don't see the same problem with the Joycon, since I'm sure many games will be compatible with the pro controler. They're pretty free to do whatever they want in future updates to the console.
I still am very bearish on the current Switch hardware, but I think a Switch SP might be the thing that sells gangbusters.
Dragonslayer_023
Banned
Things the market has proven NA doesn't want:
Dedicated Nintendo systems
Console gaming on a portable
Dedicated Nintendo systems
Console gaming on a portable
Calcium
Banned
I honestly don't understand how someone can look at what they've revealed and see anything other than another Wii U situation.
They claim to have third party support yet they had absolutely nothing to show. Seriously, can you imagine Microsoft or Sony having a reveal like that? Just company logos and "Hey, we're totally making games for the system eventually!". People would riot. No idea why Nintendo continues to get away with this nonsense.
The motion controls are just going to be Wii/Wii U all over again. Neat gameplay gimmicks that aren't really used by third party games.
All that combined with the tiny controllers, ridiculous battery life, slightly high price and paid online service really paint a pretty grim picture for the Switch. Nintendo needed to bring their A-game to climb out from under the Wii U situation. Having only Zelda for launch isn't that. At all.
They claim to have third party support yet they had absolutely nothing to show. Seriously, can you imagine Microsoft or Sony having a reveal like that? Just company logos and "Hey, we're totally making games for the system eventually!". People would riot. No idea why Nintendo continues to get away with this nonsense.
The motion controls are just going to be Wii/Wii U all over again. Neat gameplay gimmicks that aren't really used by third party games.
All that combined with the tiny controllers, ridiculous battery life, slightly high price and paid online service really paint a pretty grim picture for the Switch. Nintendo needed to bring their A-game to climb out from under the Wii U situation. Having only Zelda for launch isn't that. At all.
So did 3 billion net loss.
Switch can be used a real handheld anywhere away from home with a battery life roughly equal to that of the 3DSXL.
And the Wii U screen is AWFUL compared to the Switch.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Another good point. Breath of the Wild looks great -- But Zelda as a series has been on a decline. It's not what it once was. I don't think it really has as much system selling potential as Nintendo expects.
To rely on this as your only big title until the Holiday is going to be a disaster, IMO. They really needed Zelda + Mario at or near launch, + a summer hit, + another Fall Hit.
By the time the games do come the Switch will already be regarded as a disaster. I think Nintendo will go into damage control mode by slashing price and perhaps introducing a much cheaper 'DOCK ONLY' SWITCH for those that only care about playing it on a TV...maybe for $99. But again, that will be far too late.
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