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[Pancake Mix]

The BC NDP have a great set of policies (end union and corporate donations, end Medical Service Plan fees completely, $10 a day universal childcare, funding public transit) whereas the Liberals are under severe criticism for their poor handling of the housing situation in Metro Vancouver, their total failure to create an LNG industry (which they promised last election would create 100k jobs) and their sketchy approach to campaign finance.

The BC Liberals are largely out of ideas (they've been in power since 2001) and It should be the NDP's election to easily win, but the BC NDP are a terrible, incredibly incompetent political party so it'll be a miracle if the NDP can achieve a victory.

As I'm sure you know, the BC Liberals are a centre-right party, so your criticisms of them are not surprising. They don't care about or actively prefer the things in bold. They care only about free enterprise, and it shows.

The issue last election may have been that there is no centrist party in the province so some centrist voters held their noses, possibly for the last time. I don't think the BC Liberals are well-liked enough for that to happen again.

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

It should be the NDP's election to easily win, but the BC NDP are a terrible, incredibly incompetent political party so it'll be a miracle if the NDP can achieve a victory

 

[mo60]

The good thing is the BC NDP is not leading by like a 7-10 percent margin in polls this time.This will make them less complacent.Also dix is still around as an MLA. He's probably hiding from the media right now.

 

[Tiktaalik]

The issue last election may have been that there is no centrist party in the province so some centrist voters held their noses, possibly for the last time. I don't think the BC Liberals are well-liked enough for that to happen again.

Also dix is still around as an MLA. He's probably hiding from the media right now.

I think the reason the Liberals won the last time around is a lot more to do with mo60's comment. Bafflingly the BC NDP has never cleaned house. Dix was directly connected to scandals years earlier, but he was still lingering around. The Liberals exploited this and used his presence to remind voters of the unpopular NDP governments of the 90s. One of the smartest things the Federal Liberals did was clean house. They elected Trudeau as leader and did a much better job of distancing themselves from past iterations of the party.

Additionally unfortunately the public bought in to the Liberals' hail mary pass promise of creating a massive liquified natural gas industry. This was clearly not viable at all, but in a short election cycle, with the idea appearing out of nowhere, there was not enough time for it to be debunked. We now know that an LNG industry is never going to happen in BC and the idea was absurd.

The Liberals still stand a great chance of winning because their message is simple and appealing. They're a free market party that cares primarily about low taxes and creating jobs. That's it. That very simple "Families First™" message aligns with a great deal of BC voters.

The NDP message is more nuanced and complicated by the fact that they're somewhat torn between union and environmentalist factions. Their main problem is that they're just terrible at communication. Their current platform for example is actually probably better for businesses than the Liberal platform is, but they're incapable of explaining that to the voter.

A major NDP problem is that they're constantly knocked off their message by the Liberals out maneuvering them.

For example the Liberals love big capital projects, and since many of these are terrible ideas the NDP of course opposes them. The Liberals take this opportunity to connect big projects with growth and job creation, then criticize the NDP for being anti-growth, anti-job and anti-everything. I've seen it again and again. It's remarkably effective.

 

[Pancake Mix]

I think the reason the Liberals won the last time around is a lot more to do with mo60's comment. Bafflingly the BC NDP has never cleaned house. Dix was directly connected to scandals years earlier, but he was still lingering around. The Liberals exploited this and used his presence to remind voters of the unpopular NDP governments of the 90s. One of the smartest things the Federal Liberals did was clean house. They elected Trudeau as leader and did a much better job of distancing themselves from past iterations of the party.

Additionally unfortunately the public bought in to the Liberals' hail mary pass promise of creating a massive liquified natural gas industry. This was clearly not viable at all, but in a short election cycle, with the idea appearing out of nowhere, there was not enough time for it to be debunked. We now know that an LNG industry is never going to happen in BC and the idea was absurd.

The Liberals still stand a great chance of winning because their message is simple and appealing. They're a free market party that cares primarily about low taxes and creating jobs. That's it. That very simple "Families First™" message aligns with a great deal of BC voters.

The NDP message is more nuanced and complicated by the fact that they're somewhat torn between union and environmentalist factions. Their main problem is that they're just terrible at communication. Their current platform for example is actually probably better for businesses than the Liberal platform is, but they're incapable of explaining that to the voter.

A major NDP problem is that they're constantly knocked off their message by the Liberals out maneuvering them.

For example the Liberals love big capital projects, and since many of these are terrible ideas the NDP of course opposes them. The Liberals take this opportunity to connect big projects with growth and job creation, then criticize the NDP for being anti-growth, anti-job and anti-everything. I've seen it again and again. It's remarkably effective.

I agree, it will be interesting to see. A lot of it depends on if soft-NDP voters come out. If they do then that's it. If they don't, then that's a second election cycle the Liberals will have won with polls down the wire consistently showing higher NDP support, though less so this time.

It might have something to do with a small number of unaware, undecided voters thinking that the BC Liberals are related to the federal party in any way, at least in platform, when they're not really (aside from maybe a pipeline project or two, but seemingly nothing else). That name trick might not always work, however.

 

[maharg]

It would be pretty interesting to have ABNDP and BCNDP both in government. Because I'm not sure they'd get along.

 

[Tiktaalik]

It might have something to do with a small number of unaware, undecided voters thinking that the BC Liberals are related to the federal party in any way, at least in platform, when they're not really (aside from maybe a pipeline project or two, but seemingly nothing else). That name trick might not always work, however.

Well the popularity of the Federal Liberals in BC is a relatively new thing but the BC Liberals have done well since before 2001. I think most British Columbians recognize their independence.

Although BC has a left wing reputation it loves low taxes. Last election aside the Federal Conservatives normally do quite well here. It's unsurprising to me then that a fiscally conservative party such as the BC Liberals would do well. The success of the BC Liberals is indicative of how well a party can do with a simple message promoting low taxes and low debt.

The party reminds me of the Harper Conservatives in their straight forward and clear simple message.

Family First
Jobs
Low Taxes

That's it.

Remarkably even though the Liberals actually raise taxes via fee increases every year, few people seem to notice that fact.

Similarly to the Harper Conservatives I think the BC Liberals have a weakness when that simple low tax message isn't really as important anymore and circumstances require more complex government action. The main topic I'm talking about here is affordable housing. This is a complex file where the Liberals' simple hands off approach was clearly not impressing the public. This could be a major election issue but it seems to have regressed into the background since the foreign buyer tax was implemented. The Liberals very smartly implemented the foreign buyers tax, which I think has blunted the criticism quite a bit. If they hadn't done that I think they'd be in heaps of trouble right now.

Then again property ownership is very common, and some people may be so impressed by their double digit gains on their property assessment, that they aren't thinking of the the long term damage that the housing bubble is causing on the provincial economy.

 

[Pancake Mix]

Well the popularity of the Federal Liberals in BC is a relatively new thing but the BC Liberals have done well since before 2001. I think most British Columbians recognize their independence.

Although BC has a left wing reputation it loves low taxes. Last election aside the Federal Conservatives normally do quite well here. It's unsurprising to me then that a fiscally conservative party such as the BC Liberals would do well. The success of the BC Liberals is indicative of how well a party can do with a simple message promoting low taxes and low debt.

The party reminds me of the Harper Conservatives in their straight forward and clear simple message.

Family First
Jobs
Low Taxes

That's it.

Yes, old Reform/Alliance Party country and consistently Progressive Conservative before that (or on occasion NDP) from 1972 and on. Generally centre-right, yes, but the NDP is abnormally strong in BC at times (including right now with 14 of their 44 seats) and might be able to funnel that provincially..again I should say. The federal Liberals don't have as much support west of Ontario and likely never will for a variety of reasons. I think the Tories will gain a plurality of seats back in 2019, but BC is quite the race with first-past-the-post. Federally, all three major parties have the potential to reach double-digit seat totals there (and just did so in 2015), with the Greens taking one to boot. Quite a diverse electorate with plenty of marginal seats for all parties. Certainly a region that would be well-suited to some form of proportional representation federally.

I'd add on Harper's Tories, however, they included law & order with that list and gave it the same platform as the things you listed.

 

[Kifimbo]

Marijuana to be legal by July 1, 2018.

The Liberal government will announce legislation next month that will legalize marijuana in Canada by July 1, 2018.

CBC News has learned that the legislation will be announced during the week of April 10 and will broadly follow the recommendation of a federally appointed task force that was chaired by former liberal Justice Minister Anne McLellan.

[...]

Provinces to control sales

The federal government will be in charge of making sure the country's marijuana supply is safe and secure and Ottawa will license producers.
But the provinces will have the right to decide how the marijuana is distributed and sold. Provincial governments will also have the right to set price.

While Ottawa will set a minimum age of 18 to buy marijuana, the provinces will have the option of setting a higher age limit if they wish.

4 plants per household

As for Canadians who want to grow their own marijuana, they will be limited to four plants per household.

Legalizing marijuana was one of the more controversial promises Justin Trudeau made as he campaigned to become prime minister.

But in their platform the Liberals said it was necessary to "legalize, regulate and restrict access to marijuana" in order to keep drugs "out of the hands of children, and the profits out of the hands of criminals."

The Liberals had promised to introduce legislation by the Spring of 2017. Announcing the legislation the week of April 10 will allow the party to hit that deadline.

 

[lupinko]

Marijuana to be legal by July 1, 2018.

This also deserves its own thread I think.

 

[AuthenticM]

This also deserves its own thread I think.

I'd wait for the official announcement.

 

[lupinko]

I'd wait for the official announcement.

Looks like it was posted!

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=1355667

 

[Silver Arrows]

Haha.

Adrian Dix is a fucking joke, good thing he got exiled into the minus zone after that gong show of an election.

 

[Vibranium]

Will be voting Horgan/NDP and hoping I never have to see Christy Clark in a hard hat ever again (LNG, LNG, LNG...). On the other hand, I'm expecting the Liberals to win again. Maybe the NDP can try to surpise me.

And man, I remember how my family and coworkers were saying "he's toast" when Dix flip-flopped on the environment. A lot of people I knew actually called it.

 

[Simon Belmont]

Marijuana to be legal by July 1, 2018.

Funny timing on that

 

[gutter_trash]

Funny timing on that

nice try NDP, Mulcair campaigned on decriminalization only.

enjoy a toke

 

[lupinko]

Will be voting Horgan/NDP and hoping I never have to see Christy Clark in a hard hat ever again (LNG, LNG, LNG...). On the other hand, I'm expecting the Liberals to win again. Maybe the NDP can try to surpise me.

And man, I remember how my family and coworkers were saying "he's toast" when Dix flip-flopped on the environment. A lot of people I knew actually called it.

I don't mind Christy Clark after I got that nice letter.

But the real reason is that I'm still not sold on BC NDP after Glenn Clark and Dosanjh.

 

[Vibranium]

I don't mind Christy Clark after I got that nice letter.

But the real reason is that I'm still not sold on BC NDP after Glenn Clark and Dosanjh.

Yeah, the NDP has never really been able to escape the shadow of Glenn Clark. It seems to me like his legacy will stick around for at least 10 more years until more and more people pass on.

 

[CazTGG]

Yeah, the NDP has never really been able to escape the shadow of Glenn Clark. It seems to me like his legacy will stick around for at least 10 more years until more and more people pass on.

I wish that was the case with people remembering Harris years (and what they did to the 407) as much as they do that one time the NDP governed in Ontario.

 

[mdubs]

I hope that with her 12% approval rating Wynne is considering stepping down in favour of someone who is actually electable in 2018.

Ontario provincial politics is a straight up nightmare

 

[lupinko]

I wish that was the case with people remembering Harris years (and what they did to the 407) as much as they do that one time the NDP governed in Ontario.

You mean Rae Days?

 

[Apathy]

You mean Rae Days?

Rae Days have left such a bad taste in people's mouths but Harris years were so much worse for the province. Selling off the 407 has to be one of the dumbest things ever done to the province. The cuts to social services were downright super villain levels of evil.

 

[CazTGG]

You mean Rae Days?

Yup. People love to bring up how bad things were when the NDP were in power in Ontario (which, to be clear, they were) yet are all too quick to forget the screwups made by the 90s PCs when they governed.

 

[Apathy]

I hope that with her 12% approval rating Wynne is considering stepping down in favour of someone who is actually electable in 2018.

Ontario provincial politics is a straight up nightmare

I am guessing my vote choice for provincial party is going to be made as i sit behind the little protector thing. I have zero issue voting for the ndp as long as the cons don't get in, and the libs might be so toxic to reelect. Although my riding keeps going lib but who knows.

 

[Fuzzy]

I often laugh when people claim to hate Rae days but want to cut how much public service employees make. That's exactly what Rae days did. :lol

 

[djkimothy]

damn late. What an odd time to leak this info. I hope ontario doesn't fuck this up.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Breaking: Kevin O'Leary is an idiot:

It's as if someone told him in passing about the notwithstanding clause, and he decided to use the phrase at the very next opportunity, even if it makes no sense whatsoever.

Will be voting Horgan/NDP and hoping I never have to see Christy Clark in a hard hat ever again (LNG, LNG, LNG...). On the other hand, I'm expecting the Liberals to win again. Maybe the NDP can try to surpise me.

And man, I remember how my family and coworkers were saying "he's toast" when Dix flip-flopped on the environment. A lot of people I knew actually called it.

This seems to be the common sentiment from a lot of people, which is why I have a feeling the NDP are going to underperform in a few months. I remember reading a study a few months ago about beliefs surrounding electability, and I can't remember the exact wording, but the gist of it was: what matters isn't how many people say they're going to vote for you, but rather how many people think you can win. If voters think you have a realistic shot at victory, they'll come out for you, but if they don't think you'll win, they won't. That, apparently, was why the Liberals weren't concerned federally at the start of the 2015 campaign -- because even though they were in a pretty distant third, there was lots of evidence that people believed they had a chance to win. If the BC NDP want to beat Christy Clark, they need to get over that hump.

 

[Alavard]

Breaking: Kevin O'Leary is an idiot

You'd think he could afford an editor. That reads like shit. Looks like it was transcribed from a speech, but still, some of those lines aren't even sentences.

 

[imBask]

Blah too many words, but he was funny on Dragon's Den

☑

 

[matthewwhatever]

You'd think he could afford an editor. That reads like shit. Looks like it was transcribed from a speech, but still, some of those lines aren't even sentences.

Very true. It's incoherent on multiple levels!

 

[Apathy]

Breaking: Kevin O'Leary is an idiot:

My god, get an adult to edit your work. "united states", holy shit, use upper case U and S, its a name. My god, the amateurish level of this is just amazing that this is a front runner for the cons.

 

[Buba Big Guns]

Breaking: Kevin O'Leary is an idiot:

How was this even allowed to be sent out LMAO

Amateurish as fuck

 

[TheQueen'sOwn]

Just going to leave this here...
The joy (and politics) of breastfeeding someone elses baby

 

[Simon Belmont]

He has to be the first Canadian politician to advocate actually using the Notwithstanding Clause. Usually the idea that someone is going to use it is something you see in an attack ad.

 

[maharg]

Breaking: Kevin O'Leary is an idiot:



It's as if someone told him in passing about the notwithstanding clause, and he decided to use the phrase at the very next opportunity, even if it makes no sense whatsoever.




This seems to be the common sentiment from a lot of people, which is why I have a feeling the NDP are going to underperform in a few months. I remember reading a study a few months ago about beliefs surrounding electability, and I can't remember the exact wording, but the gist of it was: what matters isn't how many people say they're going to vote for you, but rather how many people think you can win. If voters think you have a realistic shot at victory, they'll come out for you, but if they don't think you'll win, they won't. That, apparently, was why the Liberals weren't concerned federally at the start of the 2015 campaign -- because even though they were in a pretty distant third, there was lots of evidence that people believed they had a chance to win. If the BC NDP want to beat Christy Clark, they need to get over that hump.

Just gonna point out the contradictory recent history here: Very few people voting NDP in Alberta thought they had a shot in hell of winning. Like, the idea that anyone but the PCs could ever win was so ridiculous to even the most left-leaning voter that it seemed impossible.

 

[CazTGG]

Breaking: Kevin O'Leary is an idiot:

I can't believe United States isn't capitalized in that e-mail. That is an amateur-level mistake.

 

[gutter_trash]

LOL he doesn't know how the Notwithstanding Clause works

 

[Sean C]

That O'Leary statement reads terribly, and it's full of fragments, bad punctuation, and poor capitalization.

This will make him more popular with his base than ever!

 

[bremon]

I can hear it now; "His statement reads like a series of text messages! Truly he is the Everyman! One of us! One of us!"

 

[hobozero]

"What are we made of? Our fathers came across the prairies, fought Indians, fought drought, fought locusts, fought Dix... remember when Adrian Dix came in here and tried to take over this town? Well, we didn't give up then, and by gum, we're not going to give up now!"
- The common clay of the new west (you know, morons)


(Sorry I actually love NDP

 

[CazTGG]

I can hear it now; "His statement reads like a series of text messages! Truly he is the Everyman! One of us! One of us!"

Well Arlene Dickinson *did* say she'd like to have a beer with him...

 

[matthewwhatever]

Just gonna point out the contradictory recent history here: Very few people voting NDP in Alberta thought they had a shot in hell of winning. Like, the idea that anyone but the PCs could ever win was so ridiculous to even the most left-leaning voter that it seemed impossible.

Last week I got to sit in on a panel discussion with Brian Topp, and he was adamant that the first step to them winning in Alberta was that Notley made it very clear from the get-go that she was running to be premier. Even if no one believed it when she first said it, by saying it enough times they basically convinced everyone to take her and her party seriously. From what I've read, that was Layton's approach federally too -- that he worked hard to make people think of them as a government-in-waiting, rather than just a protest party.

Of course, it's just as likely that it's a post-facto explanation for parties winning unexpectedly (or doing better than anticipated, in Layton's case).


UNRELATED EDIT: Now Maxime Bernier is hopping on the notwithstanding train too. I know that, as a libertarian, he automatically needs to be thought of as kind of dim, but this is dumb even for him.

 

[maharg]

It's definitely true that that was part of the messaging, but trust me when I say even when the polls were showing them ahead people still didn't think they'd win. Confidence was very very low and it was very surprising to all but very few when they won. Including most people who voted for them. Now, the real "to be fair" here is that Alberta's 40+ year one party government streak was exceptional and was a big part of this.

(Note: Before some jackass takes this to mean that I think Albertans didn't want the outcome and were disappointed their protest vote became real, I am not saying that. I'm saying that the idea of the undefeatability of the PC machine was so strong even people who wanted it to go down didn't really believe it could happen)

 

[Simon Belmont]

Last week I got to sit in on a panel discussion with Brian Topp, and he was adamant that the first step to them winning in Alberta was that Notley made it very clear from the get-go that she was running to be premier. Even if no one believed it when she first said it, by saying it enough times they basically convinced everyone to take her and her party seriously. From what I've read, that was Layton's approach federally too -- that he worked hard to make people think of them as a government-in-waiting, rather than just a protest party.

Of course, it's just as likely that it's a post-facto explanation for parties winning unexpectedly (or doing better than anticipated, in Layton's case).

That's basically one of Wells' rules of Canadian politics.

 

[SRG01]

It was very clear to me that the NDP were going to win a majority in the days prior to the election. The polls heavily favored the NDP by a significant margin and showed gains in Edmonton, Lethbridge, and union strongholds like Grande Prairie.

I can hear it now; "His statement reads like a series of text messages! Truly he is the Everyman! One of us! One of us!"

GDI if this actually happens in real life...

 

[gabbo]

It was very clear to me that the NDP were going to win a majority in the days prior to the election. The polls heavily favored the NDP by a significant margin and showed gains in Edmonton, Lethbridge, and union strongholds like Grande Prairie.



GDI if this actually happens in real life...

He's never tried to appeal to that sense in the electorate though. I mean, outside of selling his wines to it. He wants to come off as classy and above the common fray.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Reminder: if you want to vote in the CPC leadership race, the deadline is 5 PM EST today!

It was very clear to me that the NDP were going to win a majority in the days prior to the election. The polls heavily favored the NDP by a significant margin and showed gains in Edmonton, Lethbridge, and union strongholds like Grande Prairie.

That's not maharg's point, though -- we all saw the polls showing that. The question was how many people believed them, right up to election day, and whether people legitimately believed the NDP had a chance of winning in Alberta. As much as I was saying just a few posts ago that people need to believe you have a chance to win before they'll consider voting for you, I think the Alberta NDP winning -- much like the Ontario NDP winning in 1990 -- was a pretty clear exception to that rule.

 

[SRG01]

Reminder: if you want to vote in the CPC leadership race, the deadline is 5 PM EST today!



That's not maharg's point, though -- we all saw the polls showing that. The question was how many people believed them, right up to election day, and whether people legitimately believed the NDP had a chance of winning in Alberta. As much as I was saying just a few posts ago that people need to believe you have a chance to win before they'll consider voting for you, I think the Alberta NDP winning -- much like the Ontario NDP winning in 1990 -- was a pretty clear exception to that rule.

Hmm.

I think it could be phrased as: everyone knew that the PCs were going to lose, but not necessarily that the NDP was going to win?

I dunno, I'm not sure whether I really accept it because it sounds like a post-facto narrative. Every person I interacted with before that election had a good feeling that the NDP was going to win. It was just a matter of the margins...

 

[maharg]

Hmm.

I think it could be phrased as: everyone knew that the PCs were going to lose, but not necessarily that the NDP was going to win?

I dunno, I'm not sure whether I really accept it because it sounds like a post-facto narrative. Every person I interacted with before that election had a good feeling that the NDP was going to win. It was just a matter of the margins...

Everyone I interacted with was hopeful but had no expectation of the PCs *losing*. I was probably the most optimistic of anyone I knew. And even then I didn't think more than a minority was likely, even with positive polling numbers.

Remember that in the previous election the PCs were *also* down in the polls, with many showing the WRP in majority territory. The main difference was the lack of polling in the last two days and the fact that they were going up instead of down that time and they started off better. Alberta polling didn't have a great reputation after that. Even then, polling in 2015 was off by a *lot*, but the spread was bigger so it still came out in roughly the same order (except with PC and WRP switched in popular vote but not seat count).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2012#Opinion_polls

This isn't post-facto. This is my actual experience.

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

Reminder: if you want to vote in the CPC leadership race, the deadline is 5 PM EST today!

I'd do it if my riding had very few Conservatives, but it's difficult to tell if that's the case.