-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Canadian PoliGAF - 42nd Parliament: Sunny Ways in Trudeaupia
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
- Start date
- Status
matthewwhatever
Member
That's a very, very big if, since it would be a disaster for their economy too...but if they did: probably not in a positive way. Disentangling our economies would revert fifty years of progress, and there weren't video games to consider back in the early '60s.
On O'Leary's resignation, Paul Wells wrote up a quick reaction piece in Macleans:
Bernier (and, to a lesser extent, Leitch) may speak to the CPC base id, but I think a lot of them are aware of the fact that hitching the party to either of those candidates would be very, very risky.
The fact he thinks we're going to go and get a worse deal that benefits the US and fucks us over is his one sided thinking coming out.
All Canada has to say is 'you import most of your oil from us, and your constituents won't be very happy when they have to pay more for gas' and they'll back off.
I know I'm being optimistic, but surely Trump knows that domestic oil production is nowhere near what it needs to be to sustain the entire country... right?
gutter_trash
Banned
Kevin live on CBC:
"Quebec is the Florida of Canada"
hahahahaha
"Quebec is the Florida of Canada"
hahahahaha
You realize that we don't refine our own oil, right? The oil we pump is sent to the US for refinement and we then buy it back from them.
Saw that comment earlier and thought it was kind of telling that he was using American politics to try and explain it to Canadians? Kind of backwards.
matthewwhatever
Member
This press conference is amazing. You can feel the disdain for O'Leary from the media oozing through the TV.
gutter_trash
Banned
that was one entertaining press conference
Blatant bitterness aside, that's not the right province to make that remark.
I like to describe it as a mix between Florida and Vermont.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Wow. Softwood lumber trade war with the US? I feel like I'm back in the 90s.
And now Christy Clark wants to ban coal transport through BC from the US. This is so stupid.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...-in-retaliation-for-softwood-duties-1.4086688
Anyone gonna watch the CPC leadership debate starting right now?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...-in-retaliation-for-softwood-duties-1.4086688
Anyone gonna watch the CPC leadership debate starting right now?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics
gutter_trash
Banned
I left my TV on CBC Newsworld for too long....
this CPC debate sucks
this CPC debate sucks
Metro is owned by Star Media iirc.
gutter_trash
Banned
Letich seemed oddly "too happy" today
and tanned
and tanned
She probably thinks with O'Leary gone, she's got a straight path to PMhood
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
The Canadian economy is fucked. Everything is falling into place at the same time. On the long term, Trump's actions would harm the US, but on the short term it's Canada that is doing a balancing act and can't afford a little shake of the rope, and that's exactly what Trump is about to do.
Trump was sure to fail when it comes to China, Mexico, or Japan, and was sure to turn his sights on Canada, you could tell from the fact that the narrative was that Canada is "rather shielded from Trump's populist agenda since he has mostly spoken about China, Mexico and Japan", it was so obviously going to be his main target, it's an easy win for him to brandish a fake-victory in front of his supporters, and he was sure to fail with anyone else. Canada was always in a very weak position and should have diversified at all costs a while ago.
Today we saw Home Capital Group collapse 65%, it's likely the beginning of a few other similar downfalls in the dodgy lending sector. Household debt is at a record, the economy overly relies on real estate, oil prices are predictably unable to rise over the 50s and that won't change ever anymore other than short lived spikes once in a while at best, the US is lowering its corporate tax rate to match Canada's rate, the loonie is falling which means the BoC has fewer tools to work with (lower rates pushes the dollar down further and increases inflation further, higher rate bursts the housing bubble).
Everything is there for a serious economic downturn if not a crisis.
If it comes down to that, expect some chest-pumping Trump-bashing Cialis-poping baldie to turn Canadians' panties into a wet mush and get the Conservatives elected again.
I still say a good quick and easy move would be to announce that Canada is going to GTFO out of the Baltics. Better than nothing.
edit: Well I guess not a baldie anymore, lol. I don't think Bernier has much chances of beating Trudeau at all, so I'm glad Leary is out.
Trump was sure to fail when it comes to China, Mexico, or Japan, and was sure to turn his sights on Canada, you could tell from the fact that the narrative was that Canada is "rather shielded from Trump's populist agenda since he has mostly spoken about China, Mexico and Japan", it was so obviously going to be his main target, it's an easy win for him to brandish a fake-victory in front of his supporters, and he was sure to fail with anyone else. Canada was always in a very weak position and should have diversified at all costs a while ago.
Today we saw Home Capital Group collapse 65%, it's likely the beginning of a few other similar downfalls in the dodgy lending sector. Household debt is at a record, the economy overly relies on real estate, oil prices are predictably unable to rise over the 50s and that won't change ever anymore other than short lived spikes once in a while at best, the US is lowering its corporate tax rate to match Canada's rate, the loonie is falling which means the BoC has fewer tools to work with (lower rates pushes the dollar down further and increases inflation further, higher rate bursts the housing bubble).
Everything is there for a serious economic downturn if not a crisis.
If it comes down to that, expect some chest-pumping Trump-bashing Cialis-poping baldie to turn Canadians' panties into a wet mush and get the Conservatives elected again.
I still say a good quick and easy move would be to announce that Canada is going to GTFO out of the Baltics. Better than nothing.
edit: Well I guess not a baldie anymore, lol. I don't think Bernier has much chances of beating Trudeau at all, so I'm glad Leary is out.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Heh, I got a robocall from Leitch asking me who I would vote for now that O'Leary is gone. Chong was listed twelf. lol
Yeah, but it was weird because they just said she was a Metro columnist with no mention of The Star.
TimHortons
Member
Nah, him tweeting that gun range pic THE DAY AFTER the terrible mosque shooting in Quebec killed any slim chance he had here. Bye Felicia.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Just got another robocall - "Who would you vote for, Bernier or Lietch?"
I wonder what they're doing with this data. lol
I wonder what they're doing with this data. lol
matthewwhatever
Member
I'm...leery of Leitch. Her fundraising is better than it should be for someone that's so far behind in the polls. I could see her having quite a few voters who don't want to publicly admit supporting her.
I think he's got a better shot, for sure, but I don't think it's a sure thing. I think it's going to come down to Bernier and whoever emerges from the O'Toole/Scheer battle over who gets to be the consensus fallback choice.
That said, if it ends up being Bernier, I'm totally going to gloat over the fact I said this back at the beginning of our 2015 election thread:
I think he's got a better shot, for sure, but I don't think it's a sure thing. I think it's going to come down to Bernier and whoever emerges from the O'Toole/Scheer battle over who gets to be the consensus fallback choice.
That said, if it ends up being Bernier, I'm totally going to gloat over the fact I said this back at the beginning of our 2015 election thread:
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I honestly don't know what the fight for Quebec looks like nowadays. It's like riding a line between provincial rights/soft-sovereignty, federalism, and not being the Liberals. Somehow the NDP and the Conservatives have to make the exact same argument. lol
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Because Trump still has a Damocles sword over his head with the whole Russia stuff. He can't afford seeing Russia invade Ukraine. There's a reason he did a 180 recently on NATO.
Because he's an ignorant idiot? He's done a 180 on everything. Chances are he'll do a 180 on NAFTA as well.
I still don't see how this Russia stuff has anything to do with Canada.
Old habits die hard, I suppose.
He also changed his opinion on North Korea in 10 minutes. He's kind of ignorant of the real-life consequences of his actions as well as the complicated relationships between countries, be it social or economic.
Of course not, but they still buy their oil from somewhere. And there are a multitude of reasons why our oilsands is so cheap -- at least from a historical perspective, since the WCS differential has actually fallen quite a bit.
edit: Basically, we can still import gas products from elsewhere and we still have capacity on the east coast, but they'll have a harder time supplying themselves.
AuthenticM
Member
So we should receive our voting papers soon, right?
I mean I thought the Quebec advantage could be diminished by a well known name. No one left is that in the same way O'Leary was.
I think the cpc are going to come to really regret their voting system without an obvious strongman at the top.
matthewwhatever
Member
I mean I thought the Quebec advantage could be diminished by a well known name. No one left is that in the same way O'Leary was.
I think the cpc are going to come to really regret their voting system without an obvious strongman at the top.
I get why they wanted to avoid a 1 member/1 vote system: they recognized the need to rebuild the party on a riding-by-riding basis, and doing it this way helps facilitate that. Compared to the NDP system (which is much more strictly 1M1V, and which will reward candidates who focus the bulk of their attention on BC and Toronto), it forces candidates to try and build their profile nationally, rather than focusing all their attention on the few big cities where all the party members are. For the Conservatives, it makes them think beyond Alberta and the GTA, and into places where they're weaker, which can only help them in the long run (at least in theory).
In practice, though, I can't decide if the problem with the system is that there are too many candidates for it to work, or that it'd be more compatible with a delegated convention. They're basically forcing the 230k+ members to game it all out in their heads, and to try and rank the candidates without knowing what everyone else is doing. If it was a small field of candidates, or if the ranking was happening in real-time at a convention, it'd be much more straightforward, because there'd be either a) fewer possible combinations of rankings, or b) feedback based on what everyone else is saying. The way they've opted for allows for some collaboration, but nothing as obvious as one candidate walking across the convention floor to endorse another candidate. I think the way it's unfolded is much more chaotic than they were expecting.
That said, the CPC did announce on Tuesday that they had more than 259,000 eligible voting members, including 150,000 new members since the beginning of the year. At $15/person, that's an extra $3.8 million dollars. Even if most of that money goes into processing all the memberships and sending out ballots, they still have all that contact info, which is pretty vital. I think from that perspective, they're happy that there wasn't an obvious frontrunner who came in and steamrolled everyone.
On a related note, the Abacus poll looking at the broader impact of the CPC race is interesting, and it's not good for the Conservatives:
Admittedly, none of these people are household names, which makes the data a little suspect, but I think that the CPC should be a little concerned that their new frontrunner is, at best, a neutral force in terms of bringing in new voters, and at worst may be more repulsive to Canadians that Leitch and O'Leary.
matthewwhatever
Member
They'll go up, but I think everyone else's will, too (since, I mean, they have to, because that's how math works). According to CBC:
Using that math and going by Mainstreet's most recent numbers, assuming O'Leary's supporters simply go to their second choice and everyone else stays put, that bumps Bernier up from around 14% to about 22-23%. If Scheer goes up by about 2 points, he's at 19.
Obviously, the race isn't static, so the math isn't exact, but I don't think it launches Bernier into an insurmountable lead. In fact, if you look at the last few contested conventions, being the frontrunner isn't necessarily the idea position, since it also makes it easier to organize against you. In 2nd or 3rd, Bernier could play the role of consensus/fallback candidate. In first, he's the person the other candidates will rally against.
Using that math and going by Mainstreet's most recent numbers, assuming O'Leary's supporters simply go to their second choice and everyone else stays put, that bumps Bernier up from around 14% to about 22-23%. If Scheer goes up by about 2 points, he's at 19.
Obviously, the race isn't static, so the math isn't exact, but I don't think it launches Bernier into an insurmountable lead. In fact, if you look at the last few contested conventions, being the frontrunner isn't necessarily the idea position, since it also makes it easier to organize against you. In 2nd or 3rd, Bernier could play the role of consensus/fallback candidate. In first, he's the person the other candidates will rally against.
Yeah a convention would even out the problem but also raise the bar to participation and remove the grassroots aspect they're going for.
I think it can only really hurt them in the long run, at least in terms of the party staying recognizably what Harper built. It may help everyone else though by possibly moderating it in the long run. But the premise of it was probably based on some notion that grassroots members across the nation would be similarly 'traditional' to the grassroots that built the party in the prairies and southern Ontario and that the People Like Them lacked a voice. That's not gonna be true in the end. For a while at least, without a really strong candidate out of the west, Quebec is going to dominate the vote and that will probably alienate western members. There's a lot they didn't think about in terms of reconciling that problem.
I don't think any Trudeau vs. polls are meaningful until leaders are chosen and there are some news cycles. People just don't give a shit right now and are pretty content with Trudeau so why would they even consider an alternative? That it shows a four point spread is pretty clear evidence people aren't even really thinking about it.
I think it can only really hurt them in the long run, at least in terms of the party staying recognizably what Harper built. It may help everyone else though by possibly moderating it in the long run. But the premise of it was probably based on some notion that grassroots members across the nation would be similarly 'traditional' to the grassroots that built the party in the prairies and southern Ontario and that the People Like Them lacked a voice. That's not gonna be true in the end. For a while at least, without a really strong candidate out of the west, Quebec is going to dominate the vote and that will probably alienate western members. There's a lot they didn't think about in terms of reconciling that problem.
I don't think any Trudeau vs. polls are meaningful until leaders are chosen and there are some news cycles. People just don't give a shit right now and are pretty content with Trudeau so why would they even consider an alternative? That it shows a four point spread is pretty clear evidence people aren't even really thinking about it.
gutter_trash
Banned
I agree with you guys that Maxime's war with farmers will knee cap him in agricultural regions and sets up him on the defensive
All of his economic stances will put him at odds with just about everyone.
gutter_trash
Banned
who would vote for Bernier over Trudeau besides Quebec City Radio Poubelle listeners and Beace region libertarian nutters?
That's what im saying. He might score some points for social issues, but not enough to overcome the tidal wave of negativity from his economic policies being some inept.
killer rin
Member
Ontario is doing Pharmacare
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/budget-2017-sidebar-1.4086229
for everybody under 25 years of age
As someone under 25 who lives in Ontario, I dig this.
killer rin
Member
I'm honestly surprised Ontario is the first one to move on this. I would have expected another province would have done it first. Not that I'm complaining, its a huge step forward. Now we just have to work to get it expanded to everybody. Which is way easier when a program is already in place compared to if you have to start one up from scratch.
Patrick Brown's response about what i expected. Worse than ether liberal or ndp idea and probably smoke and mirrors
While i wouldnt be covered, my girlfriend would and that would be huge for us. Im for it.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Honestly, I'm surprised no one has put forward universal dental care. It's the biggest gap in health care coverage and poor oral health is responsible for a lot of the other healthcare issues that come down the line anyway.
Simon Belmont
Banned
As someone who is over 25 and lives in Ontario, I also dig this!
killer rin
Member
I definitely think it will happen eventually. The problem is that right now the big thing is the news is Pharmacare and how people not being able to afford or get access to the drugs due to cost is the number one-ish reason behind our healthcare not working as it should. Once that's out of the picture people will have to turn their eyes towards Dental Care and then finally Optical Care.
It just sucks because we know it will happen eventually, everybody already wants it to happen, we are just waiting for politicians to play politics until one of them finally acts on what the people want.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
That strange thing is that it used to be free to get your eyes checked, until the McGuinty government killed it. I think it's still subsidized, but since it isn't free, I haven't even thought about getting my eyes checked in 5 years or so.
We already have pharmacare for seniors, so having it apply to children up to college age makes perfect sense, particularly for parents who don't have extensive insurance benefits whereever they work. Ideally, everyone should just get covered... but yeah. lol
I wonder if any of these ideas will even last though, assuming the Liberals don't pull out another miracle win. I have to assume the guaranteed income thing will die if the Tories win power, and this probably would too.
SilentMatthew
Member
Funny enough I'm at the edge of the threshold age exit by next year when Ontario Pharmacare is in effect. Gotta use it before I lose it I guess.
I don't expect any recent moves into Basic Income, Pharmacare, and etc to exist once the Liberals get out of office. Unless they manage to get their message(s) struck in the public mindset and another PC fuckup happens, the next election is theirs to lose. The PCs making a similar bid in Pharmacare would dampen possible swing votes to the Liberals.
I don't expect any recent moves into Basic Income, Pharmacare, and etc to exist once the Liberals get out of office. Unless they manage to get their message(s) struck in the public mindset and another PC fuckup happens, the next election is theirs to lose. The PCs making a similar bid in Pharmacare would dampen possible swing votes to the Liberals.
killer rin
Member
As long as its not a Conservative Majority the program is safe, and even if it was, by the time the Conservatives got around to touching the program it will have been around for a couple years and would be political suicide to get rid of or restrict. So I think its safe. The BI Trial is a goner though.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked