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Clinton's lead over Trump is 8-9 points with just 70% of Sanders Supporters

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C

cartoon_soldier

Member
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...lead-over-trump-may-be-bigger-than-you-think/

In the NBC/WSJ poll, Clinton’s advantage over Trump goes from three points to eight points and she leads 51 percent to 43 percent….

In the latest CBS News/New York Times poll, Clinton’s advantage grows from six points to nine points with 70 percent of Sanders-only voters — she leads 50 percent to 41 percent. In the latest Fox News poll, where Trump currently leads Clinton, the Sanders-only voters make it a tied race — 45 percent to 45 percent.
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It is important to note that National polls today with Sanders not having conceded yet vs. Trump whose primary challengers have all conceded is not a good indicator for November. Obama had an immediate 3 point bump vs. McCain once Clinton withdrew.

Most of the news articles don't cover these things. She doesn't even have to win 90% of Sanders supporters, anything from 60-70% is fine.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
She'll get a bump when the primaries are over next week, and then a convention bump and then an Obama bump.

Plus who knows what kind of stupid shit Trump will say between now and November, making the gap even wider.
 
VenomousCoffee

VenomousCoffee

Member
And I'm old enough to remember when Dukakis was leading George HW Bush in the polls. By a wide margin, I think, and later in the election than this.

I hope Trump loses, but polls this early don't mean anything.
 
A

andthebeatgoeson

Junior Member
Slayven said:
What about the Biden bump?
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That'll get you pregnant.

Most recently decided to let Bernie Bros go thru the stages of grief. You wouldn't ask a newly widowed wife for a date, right? Just give them the convention and the first debate. This will be a distant memory. Trump will be on live TV spouting bullshit. Racist, sexist bullshit and will be outclassed, in front of the entire world.

The press will grow one ball and start putting up boundaries for Trump. Some racists will be upset but it'll be a landslide. I'll hold off on predicting but we could have the presidency and senate. Then, Merrick will get a goodbye and Hillary will start planning for the drapes in the SCOTUS.

The over under on Merrick getting confirmed? I'm sure they'll want to start talking about it by September. By then, hopefully Obama withdraws his name. And hits them with, 'Well, we should wait for the next president, so they can decide.'
 
G

Gutek

Member
The Lamonster said:
She'll get a bump when the primaries are over next week, and then a convention bump and then an Obama bump.

Plus who knows what kind of stupid shit Trump will say between now and November, making the gap even wider.
Click to expand...

That's not how 'Shit Trump Says™' works. Every time he says outrageous things, his numbers rise.
 
H

Hazmat

Member
The polls are so screwy with Sanders staying in the race insisting he can be the nominee. There's a NJ poll that shows 28% (!) supporting a third party or "undecided" in Clinton v. Trump. I want this primary wrapped up to get some numbers, is that asking too much?
 
X

Xe4

Banned
To be fair, it's a bad idea to look at individual polls, be they good for Clinton or Trump. But the RCP average has Clinton +1 and the HuffPo average had her +4. So Clinton is doing very well.

Gutek said:
That's not how 'Shit Trump Says™' works. Every time he says outrageous things, his numbers rise.
Click to expand...

In the primary full of racist shitbags. We don't know what effect it will have in the general. Probably negative if I were to guess. It's why he's trying to "pivot", and failing miserably, because he is at his core a colossal asshole.
 
W

_woLf

Member
but guys bernie showed up at a basketball game last night that means hes one of us!!!!!
#feelthebern #gowarriors
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
Ray Down said:
If polls are bad now for Trump just wait till Obama gives his speech at the convention.
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Wonder if Obama is planning on making his second consecutive appearance at the GOP convention

11534255-large.jpg
 
M

Mammoth Jones

Member
The Lamonster said:
She'll get a bump when the primaries are over next week, and then a convention bump and then an Obama bump.

Plus who knows what kind of stupid shit Trump will say between now and November, making the gap even wider.
Click to expand...

The Obama bump will be epic. I ain't even a Hilary fan but you better believe it's coming.
 
S

Slayven

Member
andthebeatgoeson said:
That'll get you pregnant.

Most recently decided to let Bernie Bros go thru the stages of grief. You wouldn't ask a newly widowed wife for a date, right? Just give them the convention and the first debate. This will be a distant memory. Trump will be on live TV spouting bullshit. Racist, sexist bullshit and will be outclassed, in front of the entire world.

The press will grow one ball and start putting up boundaries for Trump. Some racists will be upset but it'll be a landslide. I'll hold off on predicting but we could have the presidency and senate. Then, Merrick will get a goodbye and Hillary will start planning for the drapes in the SCOTUS.

The over under on Merrick getting confirmed? I'm sure they'll want to start talking about it by September. By then, hopefully Obama withdraws his name. And hits them with, 'Well, we should wait for the next president, so they can decide.'
Click to expand...

My gut says the media will turn on Donald, and they will start calling him out on shit
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I think the thing that's really going to be a disaster for the GOP is that there's going to be a "have you no decency" moment where people stop being entertained by "telling it like it is."

Even worse for the GOP is that its a star-making moment for whoever does it.
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
BanGy.nz said:
Pollster has Clinton +4 and they have the advantage of using all the polls.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I'll bookmark this one. In any case, my point was twofold: 1) Individual polls are useless as tits on a boar. People should only be posting aggregates. 2) 8-9 points is definitely not matching up with aggregates, it's still not an easy win for Clinton at this stage.
 
X

Xe4

Banned
Gutek said:
Sorry, that is bullshit. He just recently caught up with Hillary. He had one big slump in April but he is trending up in general.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Click to expand...

He "caught up" with Clinton (1 point is a HUGE difference and other sites have the gap larger), because he is the only Republican candidate while Hillary is still battling Sanders. ie he had his presumptive nominee bump and it wasn't even enough to catch Hillary, even when she is still figthing in the primary. That's bad news for him.
 
N

NeuAscension

Banned
The Lamonster said:
She'll get a bump when the primaries are over next week, and then a convention bump and then an Obama bump.

Plus who knows what kind of stupid shit Trump will say between now and November, making the gap even wider.
Click to expand...

She'll get a bump, her favorability will go up. Everyone loves her. It's fine.
maxresdefault.jpg
 
K

kadotsu

Banned
I know there is a (somewhat) strong correlation between the popular vote and the electoral college but why isn't polling for the presidential GE measured with the number that actually matters? Are those polls too expensive?
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
Gutek said:
Sorry, that is bullshit. He just recently caught up with Hillary. He had one big slump in April but he is trending up in general.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Click to expand...

This is just following the standard ups and downs of an election. He won the GOP nomination so he got a bump, it will recede, and he'll get another bump after the actual convention. There will be media cycles that he wins where he goes up and media cycles where he loses where he goes down a bit. But his strategy of "say outlandish shit" won him the GOP base (partly due to their being nobody who could solidify the anti-Trump vote behind them due to there being too many candidates running) while giving him crazy high negatives with the general public.
 
N

Nazgul_Hunter

Member
Xe4 said:
He "caught up" with Clinton (1 point is a HUGE difference and other sites have the gap larger), because he is the only Republican candidate while Hillary is still battling Sanders. ie he had his presumptive nominee bump and it wasn't even enough to catch Hillary, evendors when she is still figthing in the primary. That's bad news for him.
Click to expand...

There's a poll in Oregon where he's 2 points behind, but in the poll both are in the 30s, which means somewhere around 50 - 60% of people haven't made up their mind. It's no surprise that Sanders supporters would not be inclined to say they're supporting her while the primary is going on. In 2 weeks we should have a better picture of the fundamentals of the race
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
DragonSworne said:
I can't believe how many people are supporting Trump. It boggles my mind how much some people hate the Democratic Party.
Click to expand...

It doesn't help that the Clinton campaign is completely incompetent. What's the first thing you thought of when you saw that "Love Trumps Hate" slogan? To me, it read "Love Trump's Hate" (Love is a verb). Like whaaat? And it's not just because I'm biased, because someone showed this to Bill Maher and it's the first thing he thought of too, and he fucking hates Trump.

Plus, believe it or not, some people actually like Trump. ;-)
 
A

andthebeatgoeson

Junior Member
Slayven said:
My gut says the media will turn on Donald, and they will start calling him out on shit
Click to expand...
They'll follow the ratings. Once the general populace starts paying real attention, the Donald will fade out. He's showing that he can't pivot.

Those general debates will be embarrassing.
 
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