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[AwShucks]

Well...I guess that is technically what he says. But if we have the same types of games just streaming from somewhere instead it's not really that different. It's just skipping the extra hardware step.

Anyways, as a programmer in the industry I surely hope consoles, or at least the big budget games made for them, don't go away. I need my job.

 

[Fudgepuppy]

As long as I can buy my games and play them with a controller, I'm happy.

 

[alexandros]

After this years E3, who would shed a tear if traditional consoles just die?

Diehard fans of the specific platforms and... noone else really.

 

[speedpop]

I've been stating these things for the past 12 months, even going so far as to consistently mention to myself, to my partner, and to my peers that this was the last time I was going to buy a console. The Wii U itself is only being bought because my partner wants one and she is determined to get it, whereas I am content with the PC & handheld triple combo.

If anything it seems like the Wii U is a precursor to what consoles will likely become later down the track; nothing more than a controller with a built in tablet screen that connects to your TV for comfy couch scenarios while still being able to "disconnect" and play it anywhere within the house. The only thing stopping this from happening is whether the technology is available at a competent level (the iPad says yes it is) and split-screen multiplayer. What is most interesting for me is whether this will cannibalize the handheld industry, and I believe that Nintendo may be hoping this to be a trump card lest the "mobile gaming is the future, dedicated handhelds are dead!" soothsayers actually get it right for once.

The digital age itself has sparked a flurry of "it's okay retail, we're still here!" from the big three manufacturers while the stores themselves have had to change or die. It wouldn't surprise me if 10-15 years down the track gaming stores are nothing more than glorified demo stations with digital debit cards available for console storefronts - the idea of having to drive down to the store between 9-5 to buy a game eventually becoming more ludicrous as the years pass by (midnight launches anyone?). The idea of not being able to sell your games or hardware back to these stores may be damning to the dedicated few who buy day 1 and want to get as much money back as possible, but the PC market has shown that no one actually gives a shit when you are smart with your wallet.

All the meanwhile I see gamers who continue to snort at the external factors of the Wii U and yet they may very well be the ones who are looking through the wrong end of the telescope.


Hopefully, for the feverish fanatics out there, I am wrong.

 

[Marty Chinn]

Diehard fans of the specific platforms and... noone else really.

So we'd be happy with iOS and Facebook games? Sounds like a terrible future to me.

 

[Endo Punk]

I cant imagine a world where Nintendo doesn't make systems, they're the soul of the industry!

 

[-KRS-]

Where in Europe do you live that has such bad broadband speeds? USA's broadband connections on the average seem pretty bad compared to what we've got here (Sweden), so to me it sounds like it'd be the other way around.

Well us Swedes have been pretty damn spoiled when it comes to broadband connections and bandwidth because the government actually funded the building of that infrastructure here. Personally I went from a 56k modem directly to them installing ethernet ports in our home with 10mbit up/down no caps, and that was in 2002 or so. Nowadays it's pretty standard and cheap with 100/100 in most cities. I can even get 1000/1000 if I wanted to but realistically I wouldn't even know what to do with all that bandwidth. But all that was possible because Sweden is such a small country compared to others, with relatively few citisens. It wouldn't be possible to subsidize setting up the infrastructure in a country with many times more citisens. So that's why a lot of European countries simply haven't caught up yet. I've read that in Poland for example there are still many users on dial-up, and it costs a fortune if you do have something better than that. That was some years ago though so maybe it's better now. I guess nowadays most people would have probably migrated to at least mobile broadband over 3G or something.

I think in 10 years most people will probably have adequate connections though because bandwidth is rapidly improving all over the world, so streaming services instead of consoles is probably not that far-fetched. I'm more worried about bandwidth caps not going away though. But I think they will at the very least raise the caps significantly in the near future because streaming video services are becoming more and more popular. It's idiotic that there are still people out there who have to live with 30-40GB/month caps in this age of HD videos on youtube and whatnot.

 

[SparkTR]

So we'd be happy with iOS and Facebook games? Sounds like a terrible future to me.

There's more to the industry than just console AAA and iOS, and I also don't see services like Steam or F2P games slowing down. Regardless, given enough time those games won't be dependent on traditional console hardware anymore. They could be streamed, they could be played from TV-compatible tablet devices, they're definitely going to be digital. The games aren't going anywhere, the brands probably aren't going anywhere, but the method in which you access them will likely change dramatically.

 

[alexandros]

So we'd be happy with iOS and Facebook games? Sounds like a terrible future to me.

you've never heard about PC?

 

[Marty Chinn]

you've never heard about PC?

I have, but PC gaming offers most of the same type of gaming that a console does these days. To wish death upon traditional consoles for their type of games seems like it would be pissing on the PC as well.

 

[alexandros]

If you dig a little deeper, you'll find all sorts of experiences that can't be replicated on a console.

 

[Margalis]

This image is silly.

Gaikai is fundamentally a screen-scraping technology. It works by running a game remotely then streaming you the result image that their hardware produced. That will always be slower than running the same game at home.

That image only works because they are comparing a console game to a PC game and claiming that the console game takes twice as long for the "game pipeline." But if you were running the PC version that savings would be erased. Or if Gaikai was running a console-exclusive game (which it can't do IIRC) it would also be erased.

 

[Trickster]

If you dig a little deeper, you'll find all sorts of experiences that can't be replicated on a console.

You have me intrigued, do tell.

 

[fizzelopeguss]

These streaming services are dependent on infrastructure more than anything. in 5 to 10 years i can see them performing "decently" well in Europe and japan. In the US outside of core territories/cities...i have no idea. How's your fibre optic rollout coming along?

 

[dose]

Lol, what a bullshit comparison.

 

[Version 3.0]

At some point the games industry will grow up and move to a standard like the movie industry already did.

You mean the several different standards that the movie industry has bickered and fought over?

Take a look at the 3DO to see how great an idea a standard console is. It's not much better of an idea now that it was then. Games are not movies, and game hardware is a lot more powerful and changes much faster than movie player hardware.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

I agree with David Jaffe. I also said a while back that I think next generation is going to be the last of the consoles which is bad news to me. Too bad I really don't care for PC gaming.

 

[subversus]

You have me intrigued, do tell.

strategies (4X ones) due to interface and partially audience
point and click due to audience and partially interface (Monkey Island had it good though)
All games with mictronsactions because of plaform restrictions (will be lifted next-gen though) so Team Fortress, Tribes, Vindictus, World of Tanks and tons of other games are out this gen
some games like DayZ due to RAM restrictions and iterations restrictions

But the biggest barrier isn't a technical one. It's platform holders that hold small budget games like Amnesia (the best survival horror since Silent Hill 2) from entering the market by erecting artificial walls of certification and other shit. So yes, if you buy a PC and start reading Rockpapershotgun your backlog will never ever end. There are tons of puzzle games like Q.U.B.E., first-person platformers like inMomentum, some other interesting stuff like a game where you play as a blind boy who sees with sound and so on. I'm not mentioning sidescrollers because there are literally TONS of them and they are playable with a gamepad.

Todd Howard:
“If I ran the video game world… all consoles would be exactly the same way [as PCs].”

 

[AwayFromInfinityx]

Planet of the consoles: RISE OF THE PC'S

Believe

 

[DXPett1]

Small games for when you are on the move
Docking station (to TV) + Wireless controller + Streaming service w/ Big games for when you are at home.

That's pretty much where I see everything heading. Heck, Sony already has their toe in the water with Playstation Mobile + PSN

 

[Trickster]

strategies (4X ones) due to interface and partially audience
point and click due to audience and partially interface (Monkey Island had it good though)
All games with mictronsactions because of plaform restrictions (will be lifted next-gen though) so Team Fortress, Tribes, Vindictus, World of Tanks and tons of other games are out this gen
some games like DayZ due to RAM restrictions and iterations restrictions

But the biggest barrier isn't a technical one. It's platform holders that hold small budget games like Amnesia (the best survival horror since Silent Hill 2) from entering the market by erecting artificial walls of certification and other shit. So yes, if you buy a PC and start reading Rockpapershotgun your backlog will never ever end. There are tons of puzzle games like Q.U.B.E., first-person platformers like inMomentum, some other interesting stuff like a game where you play as a blind boy who sees with sound and so on. I'm not mentioning sidescrollers because there are literally TONS of them and they are playable with a gamepad.

Todd Howard:
“If I ran the video game world… all consoles would be exactly the same way [as PCs].”

Indeed we don't see many strategy games on consoles, if any anymore, due to the gamepads not really working well with that genre.

There are point and click games on consoles though, dunno why you're saying they aren't?

f2p games are only on pc indeed. But outside of f2p mmos. I haven't really seen any f2p games that are something you couldn't find on consoles. Ignoring the fact that team fortress 2 is out on both 360 and ps3 because it used to cost money. That and Tribes are still just fps games. Something that there are certainly more than enough of on consoles.

Apparently DayZ is some mod that seems to run horribly, if the couple of youtube videos I saw are anything to go by. But yes, mods are definitely one of the really strong reasons that pc games are often the way to go.


Anyway. Yes you can find things on the pc that you can't find on the consoles, for various reasons. However, you can also turn that around and say you can find things on consoles you can't find on pc. I know virtually all of gafs hates things like motion controls and kinect. But it's still something that offers consoles experiences that you can't get on the pc.

 

[Eusis]

While input's part of it for strategy games, I think a lot of it has to do with the PERCEPTION they're out and out unacceptable. If you force the entire industry there when budgets are low enough they'll produce plenty of strategy games and other such genres, just look at Japan. This only happened here AFTER the rising budgets though, so most seem to go "if it's on console and at retail it needs to be an action game or action-focused and real time".

 

[smuldegspaj]

Streaming exist for the same reason consoles exist.

namely evolving tech is expensive.

once we have reach diminishing returns. Tech is going to be cheap, so cheap and powerful that there wont be a need for a hardware standard. The standard is going to be software based. Like an .mp3 file or whatever, and even your toaster will be able to run that shit..

The only benefit of streaming is content protection.

 

[amstradcpc]

Streaming exist for the same reason consoles exist.

namely evolving tech is expensive.

once we have reach diminishing returns. Tech is going to be cheap, so cheap and powerful that there wont be a need for a hardware standard. The standard is going to be software based. Like an .mp3 file or whatever, and even your toaster will be able to run that shit..

The only benefit of streaming is content protection.

QFT. Once Nvidia GTX980 or whatever is good enough to play avatar graphics in realtime there will be no need to make hardware upgrades. We are reaching that point but in a slow pace, process tech is reaching its limits. So, this gen MS and Sony should give the morst powerful hardware possible, as it will be a long gen.

 

[Eusis]

There's other potential benefits for streaming, on the consumer end at that, but I don't think they'll be so great as to force out playing on local hardware. Well, and the fact I think you're right that by the time streaming is that good so will the hardware to make it a moot point.

 

[smuldegspaj]

QFT. Once Nvidia GTX980 or whatever is good enough to play avatar graphics in realtime there will be no need to make hardware upgrades. We are reaching that point but in a slow pace, process tech is reaching its limits. So, this gen MS and Sony should give the morst powerful hardware possible, as it will be a long gen.

This is my opinion as well.

If they release a really powerful console. Next gen could be the last untill we have reached dimminishing returns.

 

[UrbanRats]

I just want a Dark Souls with Agni's Philosophy level graphics, i don't care if i'm streaming it or playing it through my mp3, as long as it works and it works well.
Having it on my PC through something like steam would be better, though.

 

[Eusis]

We've already been going into diminishing returns, it's now a matter of how long until it's too hard for anyone to really spot a difference. A jump to 4k visuals could prolong this however.

 

[smuldegspaj]

We've already been going into diminishing returns, it's now a matter of how long until it's too hard for anyone to really spot a difference. A jump to 4k visuals could prolong this however.

there is still quite a bit of head room for improvements.

 

[Eusis]

there is still quite a bit of head room for improvements.

Yes, but the leaps like from NES to SNES, or PS1 to PS2 are largely behind us. It's probably going to be more like the perceptible jump is halved each time or close enough, but I'll have to wait for actual next gen games to see if that feeling is proven true or not.

 

[Ooccoo]

Consoles are definately dying. Streaming and cloud platforms are the future.

 

[Eusis]

Actually, has there been any indication so far cloud gaming is even catching on? It may have a shocking amount of potential, but if it fails to catch on that won't matter.

And I suspect two things with consoles: that the AAA(A) budget games are doomed with a few exceptions, or this generation dragging on an abnormally long time has left people weary and waiting on something exciting to catch their attention, which the Kinect proves to an extent. It may well be that novelty starved masses will swarm the Wii U just because WOW A TABLET CONTROLLER, and similar for Xbox/Playstation when they demonstrate how powerful they can be.

 

[UrbanRats]

If you don't like PC gaming you are pretty much a communist. PC gaming is democracy.

I don't know man, i heard PC gaming is pretty strong in estern Europe/Russia.

 

[smuldegspaj]

Yes, but the leaps like from NES to SNES, or PS1 to PS2 are largely behind us. It's probably going to be more like the perceptible jump is halved each time or close enough, but I'll have to wait for actual next gen games to see if that feeling is proven true or not.

id say there is. Look at agnis demo. Especially for games that have open world enviroments. which look very crude today.

But after next gen? i dont know.

 

[Eusis]

id say there is. Look at agnis demo. Especially for games that have open world enviroments. which look very crude today.

But after next gen? i dont know.

This is why I said I want to wait and see when we have the hardware and games in our hands. I believe the VII tech demo was ultimately topped, but not in all ways if memory serves right and it took several years. Even so, the leap is clearly more in effects than poly counts and details, the leap in facial detail there isn't the same as the leap between Knights of the Old Republic and Mass Effect.

 

[soul creator]

I don't think consoles would diminish due to streaming services (as plenty have mentioned, it'll take a massive increase in broadband infrastructure to support that), but I could definitely see a lessening emphasis on "3 separate $300+ boxes hooked to my TV are needed to enjoy what the gaming industry has to offer". That's one of those things that we just accept as part of gaming historically, but really seems a bit outdated the further we go along.

Which I think Jaffe was getting at with the "movie studio" comment. Of course, gaming does have a difference in the sense of historically being more tech-oriented, but the point is that it seems to matter less and less as we move on, once we reach some base level of specs. At some point, it becomes harder to differentiate consoles on the basis of video cards and CPUs and RAM.

(note: I only refer to TV devices, and not portable devices in this comment, since those are relatively self-contained, and also have to have built-in custom control systems)

 

[Commanche Raisin Toast]

Thanks David, good to know that within 10 years everyone will have high speed internet with which to stream all these games.

 

[TGO]

With Wii @ 90+ Mil sales PS3 & 360 @ 70+, it's kinda hard to swallow
it's not like the Sega & Nintendo era where it was only at 30/40mil, Consoles sales haven't declined in the last decade, they've increased
So those people aren't gonna just stop buying Consoles.
or is this one of those stupid iPAD is gonna take over things?

 

[mckmas8808]

After this years E3, who would shed a tear if traditional consoles just die?

I would! Why the hell do so many guys here think console gaming only has 10 years left? And why do so many of you hate having a console?

 

[dark10x]

That would be an absolutely horrible future and I hope it never comes to pass.

Unfortunately I'm sure it will.

 

[olore]

No news to me

 

[SmokedMeat]

After this years E3, who would shed a tear if traditional consoles just die?

Oh it wont just be the consoles.

 

[BradleyLove]

I agree with Jaffe. I posted this a good few months ago.

I'd rather pay for a subscription to content, rather than for functionality.

I've said this before. Sony is prepping PSN to be a subscription-based content service. One day, you might not even have a Sony console, you might subscribe to PSN content through your Smart TV, PC, iOS device, whatever.

Whilst MS are locking features behind subscriptions, Sony are thinking about content (as we can see by PS+). Content is king - and Sony knows this.

One day you won't be paying to play online, you'll be paying to subscribe to the PSN channel, the EA Channel, the COD channel and so on. Sony are getting a headstart on this and I believe they view cable/satellite TV-style subscriptions as a future business model.

 

[Xanadu]

pc gaming will live on! muahaha

 

[Happy-Bunny]

I would like to see them finally forming a gaming alliance and creating the one console future where only content is important!

 

[CrunchyFrog]

"But I don't f***ing know."
-David Jaffe, modern Socrates

lol all that needs to be said

 

[Goldrusher]

pc gaming will live on! muahaha

Didn't you hear, PCs will be replaced by tablets and phones, someone somewhere said so.

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

Natural, necessary restrictions replaced with unnatural, unnecessary restrictions.

Where the game design goeth, so goeth the hardware.

 

[ZombieSupaStar]

People are scared of change. If you got a Onlive-style service running with a sufficiently high bitrate on a sufficiently low-latency internet connection, I guarantee you not a single person in this thread could tell the difference to a game being rendered on their console.

true, but I like having the ability to tinker, and if need be modify my games (mods, fan patches, what have you) losing that is a bit of a deal breaker imo.

Didn't you hear, PCs will be replaced by tablets and phones, someone somewhere said so.

a tablet is still a pc, just not in a tower, with a lot less power.



and in all honesty giving all this power back into the hands of companies is a bad idea, Id imagine nintendo/sony/sega/etc wishes they could remote deactivate all their old hardware/games so people have to keep rebuying licenses. Or in EA's case, just pull the plug on the server (that is now the WHOLE GAME and not just multiplayer/dlc) and force you onto the next teet milker.

 

[More Fun To Compute]

I would be weird if Sega outlived both Nintendo and Sony thanks to them being able to get out of console manufacturing and not doubling down.