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[Y2Kev]

As rude as he is, he has a point.

Sales would have to change drastically for that to happen...its really beyond best-case scenario, which I would say involves sales doubling and continuing that way forever.

This is like...Jesus hands out X360s in the streets of Tokyo and S-E dedicate all their support to Microsoft.

And I'm so tired of these analyst reports.

 

[GeoramA]

Analysts aren't even trying anymore.

 

[GDJustin]

idiot consider this.

X360 averages 1500 a week ~ 6000 a month X 12 ~ 72,000 a year X 6 ~ 432,000!!!!!!!....What remotely possible best case scenario could X360 come up tp accumulate up to 6 million by 2011????????????

I don't know what the scenario is, because I haven't read the report. Just taking what the 360 has been selling week to week and multiplying that by 6 years certainly must be a more intelligent analysis than what DFC has put together, right?

Perhaps DFC's "Best case for MS in Japan" involves a "Wii60"-like scenario, where the high price turns away not only JP consumers, but also developers. More Eastern support for the 360 thanks to lower dev costs and a lower point of entry for consumers for the 360. Couple that with intelligent marketing by MS Japan, and you end up with a situation where... The 360 is still significantly outsold by the PS3. That's MS's best-case scenario, lol.

I'm not saying that's how I believe it'll happen, but some of you seem to have no imagination, when it comes to best-case. Maybe MS can woo Square Enix away thanks to Sony's fumble, ala the PS1/N64 generation.

 

[Zeed]

-Damien-
Banned
(Today, 06:19 PM)
Reply | Quote

Wow that was fast.

 

[meltpotato]

that same graph has PS3 at 9MM... which is as close as stillborn the thing could get. 6MM is possible if, somehow, the PS3 failed HARD in NA and EU, thus funneling more content that is not viable on the Wii to the 360 which could, ultimately, propel the 360 tot he otherwise unattainable 6MM units. Incredibly unlikely, but thats why they call it X360 best case scenario. not terribly :lol when you think of a PS3 that completely fails in NA and EU.

Not gonna happen though. Best case scenario will not come to pass.

 

[sonycowboy]

I don't know what the scenario is, because I haven't read the report. Just taking what the 360 has been selling week to week and multiplying that by 6 years certainly must be a more intelligent analysis than what DFC has put together, right?

Perhaps DFC's "Best case for MS in Japan" involves a "Wii60"-like scenario, where the high price turns away not only JP consumers, but also developers. More Eastern support for the 360 thanks to lower dev costs and a lower point of entry for consumers for the 360. Couple that with intelligent marketing by MS Japan, and you end up with a situation where... The 360 is still significantly outsold by the PS3. That's MS's best-case scenario, lol.

I'm not saying that's how I believe it'll happen, but some of you seem to have no imagination, when it comes to best-case. Maybe MS can woo Square Enix away thanks to Sony's fumble, ala the PS1/N64 generation.

Agreed and thanks for a reasoned response. It's become a rarity around here.

If devs turn away from Sony, I can see Microsoft gaining for the big franchises that don't fit well on the Wii and sell well to Western regions (MGS, Tekken, FF, etc). Even if it's multiplatform for both the 360 and PS3.

 

[sonycowboy]

that same graph has PS3 at 9MM... which is as close as stillborn the thing could get. 6MM is possible if, somehow, the PS3 failed HARD in NA and EU, thus funneling more content that is not viable on the Wii to the 360 which could, ultimately, propel the 360 tot he otherwise unattainable 6MM units. Incredibly unlikely, but thats why they call it X360 best case scenario. not terribly :lol when you think of a PS3 that completely fails in NA and EU.

Not gonna happen though. Best case scenario will not come to pass.

PS2, the most dominant system in history is barely over 20M after 6+ years. So having their installed base cut in half would hardly constitute stillborn. (But would obviously be a fall of great proportions for Sony)

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Agreed and thanks for a reasoned response. It's become a rarity around here.

If devs turn away from Sony, I can see Microsoft gaining for the big franchises that don't fit well on the Wii and sell well to Western regions (MGS, Tekken, FF, etc). Even if it's multiplatform for both the 360 and PS3.

I don't really think anyone will turn away from Sony, I think we'll just be seeing a much broader Multiplatform approach enveloping every non-In-House developer by the time the end of this generation rolls around. Which, to be frank, seems like pretty great news for Microsoft.

 

[cvxfreak]

PS2, the most dominant system in history is barely over 20M after 6+ years. So having their installed base cut in half would hardly constitute stillborn. (But would obviously be a fall of great proportions for Sony)

In Japanese history?

 

[GDJustin]

I think some of you are looking at this the wrong way. That "best case" graph represents the absolute limits of what MS could accomplish in Japan.

So basically, DFC is is saying that ABSOLUTELY NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS, and what MS does, the Xbox 360 will still come in at 3rd place, and a somewhat distant third, at that. That's if EVERYTHING goes their way in the region. That's the best they can hope to achieve.

Doesn't seem so unreasonable when you realize all DFC is really doing is putting a ceiling (a very low ceiling at that) on the 360's potential for the region.

 

[GreekWolf]

-Damien-
Banned
(Today, 06:19 PM)
Reply | Quote

Wow that was fast.

Batman is out. Spider-man is teh new hotness

 

[meltpotato]

PS2, the most dominant system in history is barely over 20M after 6+ years. So having their installed base cut in half would hardly constitute stillborn. (But would obviously be a fall of great proportions for Sony)

I would imagine that 9MM (and i was thinking the same thing %wise) would indicate much lower relative sales elsewhere. stillborn would be a bit of an exageration, but i think you get my point. PS3 would have to fail, beyond the point of argueable influence, in the other main markets for the Japan number to reach as low as 9MM. and yeh, to reitterate. not gonna happen

 

[Razoric]

I don't really think anyone will turn away from Sony, I think we'll just be seeing a much broader Multiplatform approach enveloping every non-In-House developer by the time the end of this generation rolls around. Which, to be frank, seems like pretty great news for Microsoft.

Indeed. What that does is get developers familiar with the 360 / Live architecture and, who knows, if the 360 versions outsell the PS3 versions maybe MS can broker some exclusives out of it using 360, DLC, Vista and XBLA as leverage. I see this as nothing but a win, win for MS.

 

[Danthrax]

I think some of you are looking at this the wrong way. That "best case" graph represents the absolute limits of what MS could accomplish in Japan.

So basically, DFC is is saying that ABSOLUTELY NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS, and what MS does, the Xbox 360 will still come in at 3rd place, and a somewhat distant third, at that. That's if EVERYTHING goes their way in the region. That's the best they can hope to achieve.

Doesn't seem so unreasonable when you realize all DFC is really doing is putting a ceiling (a very low ceiling at that) on the 360's potential for the region.

That's true, but saying that they'll reach 6 million sales -- even in a best case scenario -- is ridiculous. I think we'd all be impressed if Microsoft even hit 1 million units lifetime.

 

[rastex]

Best case scenario for MS in Japan... they buy up every single japanese developer, including Sony. And they're still outsold by the PS3 by 50%.

 

[Ponn]

 

[donny2112]

DFC are the group who was particularly bullish on the PSP previously, right? I think it was their report that gets brought up frequently where they expected it to outsell the DS 25 million to 20 million and then go up from there? For them to expect such a big drop-off from Sony speaks volumes.

SIG not DFC.

Edit:
There's a misprint on the webpage that causes the Japan 360 Best Case Scenario to come up twice. Here's the missing third graph.

 

[Restricted_Area]

Even Peter Moore will laugh at this!!
the best scenario is 2 Million Units for ms in Japan IMO.

 

[VALIS]

-Damien-
Banned
(Today, 06:19 PM)
Reply | Quote

Wow that was fast.

Fast? I've had him on my ignore for months and I still couldn't get away from his ceaseless garbage and thread-wrecking. Dude had it coming.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Even Peter Moore will laugh at this!!
the best scenario is 2 Million Units for ms by 2011 IMO.

Well, its their job to give out their own opinions, don't blame them

 

[Dsal]

the best scenario is 2 Million Units for ms in Japan IMO.

Even that's a little high ;D.
But who knows, what if they somehow got SE to make DQ exclusive for it with money hats or something, I suppose that would probably be the best-case (impossible) scenario.

 

[deathkiller]

Their MS best case scenario for Japan is stupid, specialy because they say that THE BEST Sony can hope to obtain in Europe is 23M.

 

[M3wThr33]

I don't even think that Xbox + Xbox 360 in Japan has hit 1 million yet.

 

[ThirdEye]

Xbox 360 6 mil units in Japan in 2011? Believe :lol

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

Spoiler

Damien's tag is not a Sony Defence Force one..what happen?

Anyway this is one of the more ridiculous things I've read. I don't think it needs to be repeated though but 6 million X360s in Japan would be insane.

Unless MS has a secret plan that involves swiping PS3s from japanese households and replacing them with X360s.

But hey I would love the hell out of this scenario. Seeing neck and neck action from all three sides in all regions of the world would make the console wars truly glorious.

 

[Vieo]

You know Sony should do? Open up a console leasing program where you can lease a PS3 for $25 a month.

People lease cars all the time. Why not consoles?

 

[cvxfreak]

You know Sony should do? Open up a console leasing program where you can lease a PS3 for $25 a month.

People lease cars all the time. Why not consoles?

It's usually because car manufacturers work more closely with car dealers, and that cars are more of a necessity than something like the PS3.

 

[Count Chocula]

Japan is the only region that matters since that's where the exclusives come from.

 

[Cheebs]

Japan is the only region that matters since that's where the exclusives come from.

Yep. No exclusives from America or Europe.

Not a single one.

 

[Nozi]

Japan is the only region that matters since that's where the exclusives come from.

:lol

 

[xaosslug]

Serious Question:

would it pretty much cement the PS3 as consumer's de facto standard when it comes to home console gaming if PS3 sells on par or better than PS2 in the same timeframe, in all regions, price be damned or a fluke/due to Sony's unstoppable hype/marketing?

 

[Cheebs]

Here are some of my favorite multiplatform games:

 

[Krypton Zod]

On the other hand Nintendo has almost nowhere to go but up with the Wii.

Nintendo had nowhere to go but up with the Gamecube as well and, well... yea, it hasn't.

 

[VALIS]

Japan is the only region that matters since that's where the exclusives come from.

 

[Oblivion]

Serious Question:

would it pretty much cement the PS3 as consumer's de facto standard when it comes to home console gaming if PS3 sells on par or better than PS2 in the same timeframe, in all regions, price be damned or a fluke/due to Sony's unstoppable hype/marketing?

Er...first of all, what type of time frame?

 

[Cheebs]

Serious Question:

would it pretty much cement the PS3 as consumer's de facto standard when it comes to home console gaming if PS3 sells on par or better than PS2 in the same timeframe, in all regions, price be damned or a fluke/due to Sony's unstoppable hype/marketing?

If you mean launch + first half of 2007? Then hell no.
ALL systems sell out like crazy their first few months regardless of what their place in the marketplace will eventually be unless it's something like N-Gage or Gizmondo.

 

[Gawaian]

Nintendo had nowhere to go but up with the Gamecube as well and, well... yea, it hasn't.

Yeah, but the PS2 wasn't $600 dollars.

 

[Krypton Zod]

Yeah, but the PS2 wasn't $600 dollars.

So if the PS2 did cost $600 at launch (nice ignoring the $500 model, btw), it's sales would have dropped from 100 million+ to less than what the Gamecube's sold to date (roughly 21 million)? I doubt it.

 

[belvedere]

Foolish article and even more foolish if you believe it.

What strategy is failing? Oh that's right, none because the system hasn't even been released yet.

I'm not saying Sony hasn't made mistakes, but they're far from losing their crown.

 

[Oblivion]

So if the PS2 did cost $600 at launch (nice ignoring the $500 model, btw), it's sales would have dropped from 100 million+ to less than what the Gamecube's sold to date (roughly 21 million)? I doubt it.

Some support would have went to the GC, so I would say it would have more sold.

 

[Deku]

Those 6 million 360s in Japan by 2011 may be based on US console lifecycle. It's usually the case that the market for the 'next generation' products don't take off until the all the companies have entered the market. The 32/64 bit had a long uptake for example, starting with 3d0/jaguar and the PS/SAT sold only modestly until the N64 arrived and the switch to the new generation began.

I dont know the trends in Japan well enough to say either way, but the face reaction is disbelief obviously. seems very far fetched.

 

[Count Chocula]

Yep. No exclusives from America or Europe.

Not a single one.

your right. 3rd party exclusives from the West are a thing of the past.
unless your talking about sanctioned money-hat deals. But those are going to happen no matter what place your favorite console is in.

 

[sonycowboy]

Yeah, but the PS2 wasn't $600 dollars.

$600 will be written on Sony's tombstone.

It's an education issue which would be impossible and lhas been latched onto by the competitors (and partisans), but the $500 is every bit a complete gaming system as the $600 (IMO). It's simply a "fully loaded" one.

Not that $500 is affordable either, but ...

 

[Razoric]

Sony should add the hdmi hookup to the $499 one, advertise that one the most and give that one the most shipments. The $100 gap (between 360 premium and $499 PS3) is quite less of a blow.

 

[Arsenal]

Their MS best case scenario for Japan is stupid, specialy because they say that THE BEST Sony can hope to obtain in Europe is 23M.

Yeah, I found that to be a more interesting prediction too. Any best case senario you can pretty much count on never happening (like 6m 360s in Japan). For them to say that 23m is the best PS3 could do in Europe compared to 45m for the PS2 seems odd (maybe even suspect).

Personally I think that the best case senario for Sony would be to duplicate the PS2s numbers. To say a best case senario for Sony is half their current sales doesn't really make sense.

 

[Nozi]

your right. 3rd party exclusives from the West are a thing of the past.
unless your talking about sanctioned money-hat deals. But those are going to happen no matter what place your favorite console is in.

What the hell are you talking about?

 

[Operations]

Foolish article and even more foolish if you believe it.

Oh, so you read the 600 page report?

 

[Mooreberg]

Foolish article and even more foolish if you believe it.

What strategy is failing? Oh that's right, none because the system hasn't even been released yet.

I'm not saying Sony hasn't made mistakes, but they're far from losing their crown.

The problem here is, which "crown" is Sony going for? They seem to be taking the N64 approach of selling fewer systems but trying to make more through controlling the storage medium (and unlike N64, they'll be trying to make money on all the Blu-Ray movies that get made too).

I'm not sure if splitting the userbase with non-HDD systems would have been the best idea, but it is looking like they should have released a non-HDD system for $399, the 20GB for $499, and announcing the $599 sku much later on for the people who are willing to buy it. By announcing "$599" at E3 they've created a huge PR backlash on themselves. Maybe things can work out for them, but they don't seem to be making it very easy for themselves, and they would have had a really good opportunity since it doesn't look like 360 is gonna be near that "10 million units" before PS3 comes out.

 

[ZeoVGM]

i dont think so personally, but honest question: does ANYONE here think MS can turn 360 around in Japan?

 

[Drek]

I find the rampant speculation, especially from analysts, pretty entertaining. No one really knows Sony's economic model for the PS3 except Sony and maybe Nvidia. For all we know Sony could have looked at what they successfully charged Europe, looked at the higher average standard of living in the U.S. and thought "**** those Yanks, they'll pay too." As some european posters have said in this very thread, the PS3's pricing isn't that different compared to the PS2 in many European nations, PS2's still sold fine.

All our PAL region buddies have complained about an unequal market, well now they have something closer to it, unfortunatley Sony's solution was to just rape everyone.

The big challenge for Sony will the North America. We're used to being spoiled with all the price breaks. Europe is looking at their standard ass rape prices, Japan is really only a two horse race, one where Nintendo needs to pull a DS level success out of their asses. Sony is looking stable in two of the three major regions, they've just basically shot SCEA in the foot. It'll help MS but it might be more like a 5-10% market share shift, not the >25% shift that some assume.