Then PS5 will have 16-core Threadripper with a tiny GPU.
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Digital Foundry: If Xbox One X is $500 - How much will next-gen consoles cost?
- Thread starter Theorry
- Start date
IIRC, wasn't it true that he wanted two Cells in PS3(sans a traditional GPU)before they decided it would be too difficult for devs to bother figuring such a scenario out?
gundamkyoukai
Member
True but for Pro they did add 1GB slower RAM if i remember right .
Still of course all of this will depend on what type RAM they using , the set up and the price RAM will be at then
Shin
Banned
16 * 64GB/s = 1024GB/s of bandwidth with GDDR6
16 * 56GB/s = 896GB/s of bandwidth with GDDR5x
16 * 28GB/s = 448GB/s of bandwidth with GDDR5
GDDR5x is most appealing in that case, but...Samsung doesn't produce it, Micron does so that makes me skeptical.
Of course you can stick with GDDR5 but you'd need more than 16Gb I reckon, XBOX is at 326 (12 * 27.16GB/s)
xiaxdragon
Banned
The Xbox One X msrp would probably have been lower if it wasn't just an optional upgrade.
1. MS won't be manufacturing Xbox One X's at anywhere near the same scale as a true next-gen console.
2. Based on the fact 60% of PS4 Pro buyers in the UK already owned a PS4, XBO X sales will probably fare the same, and I imagine they won't result in big software/accessory sales boosts.
1. MS won't be manufacturing Xbox One X's at anywhere near the same scale as a true next-gen console.
2. Based on the fact 60% of PS4 Pro buyers in the UK already owned a PS4, XBO X sales will probably fare the same, and I imagine they won't result in big software/accessory sales boosts.
gundamkyoukai
Member
What is funny is i remember a year go when people were talking about next gen .
The talk was all HBM things really do change fast .
Lol.
Sony was indeed smoking that good shit back then.
I'll take the highest possible bandwidth that still has reasonable cost and power savings
If they have to strike some sort of balance, make sure its a good one. For me, good would be anything over 600GB/s, whatever it may be.
HBM1 and HBM2 are flops power consumption wise, and yield wise too. That is why HBM+ and HBM3 are in development in addition to GDDR6
Don't know what any of that means, but sounds powerful.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I have not check in a while how are things going with HBM ?
Any chance it could make into a next gen console ?
They are making a cut down HBM design to significantly improve yields and voltage for lower tier consumer devices(aka L(ow)C(ost) HBM(LCHBM))
HBM3 will remain for high end business and high end desktop related devices
RowdyReverb
Member
How do you define meaningful? What changes to games would such a CPU upgrade bring?
Shin
Banned
Older chips have a higher voltage also 1.5v which would result in a higher power draw, the middle ground is GDDR5x at 1.35v.
More chips is also larger PCB unless they go with 2Gb chips then you got a clam-shell setup like base PS4 (16x512Mb, 8 on each side).
Cheapest is GDDR5 which probably plays a bigger role than the chip voltage, you'd get.
32 * 28GB/s = 896GB/s (869GB/s being the actual bandwidth), that's still a lot and that on a 1024-bit bus.
ronaldthump
Member
depends on whether or not they want to throw in shit like UHDBLURAY etc.
$400
$400
Its not just CPU, it would mean being able to use the full power of the console.
Scorpio could do amazing things if it had games developed from the ground up for it as opposed to running XB1 games in higher resolutions.
Forza 7 and every other game, illustrates this.
Its like how a 1080ti and i7 could destroy every game out there if there was a dev crazy enough to make a game similar to what Crysis was back then. But that would mean sacrificing any sort of meaningful player base. Even Star Citizen, the closest thing to a modern Crysis, has lower settings for lower level PC's to handle the game.
XB1S kinda proved that the UHD BR drive doesn't cost all that much more than the BR drive itself if they really wanna include it.
???
BlackClouds
Member
Next Gen will probably have the lowest spec hardware they can get away with, because the console market is price sensitive. No matter how good a 500-600$ box is, it just won't sell enough to make the console model work. So no bitching about next gen hardware when the time comes. Mid generation refreshes would be more powerful than any launch 600$ console anyways.
Shin
Banned
It's a thing in every thread since cross-play...
ronaldthump
Member
this pricing discussion = next console will be in 2010 or later so that they can get the costs of better tech down.
We never had a proper attempt to test this hypothesis. PS3 was too exotic and X1 wasted on Kinect.
I dont want to change topic, but what happened to kinect? There's games for it yet?
The only difference there was the HDD it's not the same, but I get your point.
$499 is easier to swallow than $599 but in the case of the PS3 it was the same hardware, no improvement to the components whatsoever.
CPU/GPU, yes. The $499 model also lacked some USB ports, memory card readers, and wireless. I felt compelled to say that, I don't think it changes the point. : p
Shin
Banned
Haha I had completely forgotten about that
Electret
Member
IMO, much of this article was irrelevant to the factors that will likely influence PS5 pricing.
I can't fathom PS5 including XBX features like vapor cooling, and I don't see a 2018 release applying as mentioned at the conclusion of the video. Sony has no apparent to rush a new generation, particularly at a time before the next process will be available at mass production. For that, we're looking at 2019 or even 2020.
And 7nm will offer a generational leap at $400. Zen 2/3 with a 12-16 TF Navi-based GPU could be on the table for holiday 2020 launch.
I can't fathom PS5 including XBX features like vapor cooling, and I don't see a 2018 release applying as mentioned at the conclusion of the video. Sony has no apparent to rush a new generation, particularly at a time before the next process will be available at mass production. For that, we're looking at 2019 or even 2020.
And 7nm will offer a generational leap at $400. Zen 2/3 with a 12-16 TF Navi-based GPU could be on the table for holiday 2020 launch.
Unless they both do what Ms already plans to which is keep the bottom console compatible with current gen hardware to allow for a bigger install base, and availability of a budget priced console and premium priced console.
I really prefer this move because launch consoles take years to get a large enough install base for the sales large dev houses need.
It may not given the trajectory from PS4 to Pro in similar timeframe and process node change.
Shin
Banned
This is what's bothersome and not the APU itself: RAM prices on the rise
Here's a funny calculation that somehow ends up being the same, XBOX jump from PS4P is 1.8TF in year yeah,so let's say 2018+2019 the same equation is kept in mind, that would give us 9.6TF (6+3.6) in a PS5.
Now this funny part, Vega Eclipse GPU is or should be 10.7TF for $399, if you take the same GPU and downclock it which should be the case because it runs at 1500Mhz, initially I calculated a 12TF PS5, that would put us at a downclock speed of 1340Mhz.
56 CU * 64 shaders = 3584 (the exact amount Vega Eclipse has) *2 1340Mhz = also 9.6TF
A lot of this is just speculation and assumption, far from facts but I can't help but laugh at the coincidence.
More so when I think that from a price point of view and specs that Vega Eclipse will be the most feasible GPU for PS5.
Here's a funny calculation that somehow ends up being the same, XBOX jump from PS4P is 1.8TF in year yeah,so let's say 2018+2019 the same equation is kept in mind, that would give us 9.6TF (6+3.6) in a PS5.
Now this funny part, Vega Eclipse GPU is or should be 10.7TF for $399, if you take the same GPU and downclock it which should be the case because it runs at 1500Mhz, initially I calculated a 12TF PS5, that would put us at a downclock speed of 1340Mhz.
56 CU * 64 shaders = 3584 (the exact amount Vega Eclipse has) *2 1340Mhz = also 9.6TF
A lot of this is just speculation and assumption, far from facts but I can't help but laugh at the coincidence.
More so when I think that from a price point of view and specs that Vega Eclipse will be the most feasible GPU for PS5.
Zok310
Banned
Nope, it's been a thing since about 2 years in this gen when everyone realized Sony got this gen wrapped up.
Dlacy13g
Member
I think part of the strategy for xbox is the Xbox One X will reduce in price in the coming 2 To 3 yrs and become the defacto new gen box for MS. They bring out a newer box in say 3 To 4 yrs that will be $500ish while the X at that point will be around $300 or lower and become for MS what the S version is today. At some point in the coming 3 yrs MS will unshakle devs and let them make X only games and discontinue the S model from production a yr maybe after that.
Kuroi Gogeta
Member
Didn't some MS reps say that they were marketing XB1x as a "premium" product? I don't think that consoles will cost more than 400. It wouldn't make sense given how fast sony was able to move ps4s at that price and how quickly the switch is selling as well.
Shin
Banned
$400/$500 the price difference is like paying $1.6 dollar more per month on a 5 years investment.
400/60 = $6.66 dollars per month worth of entertainment, I'm pretty sure a day's food cost more than that or 1 visit to the cinema or even buying 1 BD movie.
Of course you can argue that the games and subscription adds up but that's with everything, but the initial investment is peanuts really.
#cannot_compute_human_logic
Woodchipper
Member
What's more amazing to me is the Switch price tag. I thought about getting one until I saw how much it costs. It's almost as much as a PS4 Pro goddammit, and that's without a proper controller. I mean, wtf?
Fess
Member
9.6 tf for PS5 would be disastrous. It wouldn't even be a bigger jump from 1X as 1X is from XBO, Sony would have serious issues to show a generational leap. I think they need to be around 14-16tf or better unless they go for a Switch clone.
Shin
Banned
It would be stronger than XB1+PS4+XBOX combined, not to mention the big CPU bump, amount of memory at it's disposal and everything else.
They could also customize the GPU by adding 2CU to it like MS did with XBOX, that'd give you 56+2 * 64 = 3712 *2 1350Mhz (10Mhz more) ---> 10TF.
So many ways to keep the console at $399, just don't fuck with the amount of RAM, hell you can even downclock the CPU a bit (which I highly doubt).
Why? Thats around a x4 jump from the base PS4, its good enough to run native 4K and its more powerful then the Xbox One X. Thats a typical generation jump for the 80% of PS4 owners who have a base PS4 or a slim.
Besides the CPU and Ram bumps are the bigger deal and the type of people who own a pro will mostly understand that.
Your thinking in terms of a jump from Pro and XB1X. I keep saying, this thinking is completely flawed.
Just in terms of basic flop count from 1.84 to 9.6tf (which isnt indicative of the power differential), the flop count would be over 5x from PS4 to PS5. The jump in flop count from 360 to XB1 is about 5x itself.
Pro and Scorpio's only purpose is to run PS4 and XB1 baseline games at higher resolutions. They are not utilizing anything close to what many of the components in the machines(especially Scorpios) could in a vacuum.
PS5 is not an iterative unit, it is the new baseline. And so what it will bring to gaming is something completely different, even if it was only a few flops higher than Scorpio.
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
To give you a sense of scale, a native 4k 30fps game that exists on Xbox One X would not be able to be pushed to 60 frames per second on this hypothetical <10tf PS5. It's true that you could say "well, we'll just target reconstructed-4k instead of native", but the PS4 Pro is only slightly under half of that power, and that's producing PS4 quality games at reconstructed 4k for the most part. Sony would be unwilling to drop the target resolution of it's new console below the previous mid-gen refresh, so you're basically saying "oh ok, let's ship a new console. It's twice as powerful as the last one!" That's not what anybody expects from a "generational improvement".
The advancement of GPU technology is slower than in the past, die shrinks are much slower, and the demands of 4k - even reconstructed 4k, make the prospect of shipping a new console with such a modest power increase highly unlikely.
I could see a 2020-2021 console launch targeting between 16-20 Tflops, depending on how future chips pan out. Even 16 would feel underwhelming in some ways, but Sony and Microsoft are both slaves to the industry at large and can only ship with the technology available, not the technology they might want. A few years back, I thought it was lunacy for them to aim for another 8 year generation, but now it feels inevitable thanks to the mid-gen refreshes and the push for 4k.
Shin
Banned
I see where you're getting at, even if 16TF seem like a lot at the moment.
AMD isn't the best partner in the sense of progression, at least not GPU wise because VEGA is way behind schedule.
Which is a thing of concern for the next generation of consoles, if they don't pick the pace up they'll probably be chasing after the fact with Navi as well.
AMD isn't the best partner in the sense of progression, at least not GPU wise because VEGA is way behind schedule.
Which is a thing of concern for the next generation of consoles, if they don't pick the pace up they'll probably be chasing after the fact with Navi as well.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I can tell you this in no way would a 16Tflops console feel underwhelming around 2020 .
The jump from PS4 to Pro is less than 2.5 times GPU wise .
That would also be a bigger jump from PS3 to PS4 GPU wise also .
Going by the beefiest mainstream console of each generation:
Xbox: 20 GFLOPS
360: 240 GFLOPS (+ x12)
PS4: 1.8 TFLOPS( + x9.. ish)
General trend seems to indicate that following the modern tech trend we should expect the next generation to aim somewhere around 12-14 TFLOPS if it maintains the relative amount of jump. The XBX is currently an x3 ish jump when trend is indicating the next one should be closer to 6x.
They might get lucky if HDMI gets stuck at 60hz/4K and they can sort of catch up. If 144hz and 4K starts becoming standard, that 14 TFLOPS is gonna feel cramped.
Xbox: 20 GFLOPS
360: 240 GFLOPS (+ x12)
PS4: 1.8 TFLOPS( + x9.. ish)
General trend seems to indicate that following the modern tech trend we should expect the next generation to aim somewhere around 12-14 TFLOPS if it maintains the relative amount of jump. The XBX is currently an x3 ish jump when trend is indicating the next one should be closer to 6x.
They might get lucky if HDMI gets stuck at 60hz/4K and they can sort of catch up. If 144hz and 4K starts becoming standard, that 14 TFLOPS is gonna feel cramped.
McValdemar
Member
Possible scenario, but if that's the price point then MS might be able to see the XOX for 199$ and IF they're able to fill it with games, might end in a good position having a slightly less powerful console but with a userbase built in three years.
Really, will be all about games again where we know that Sony does a good effort, while MS goes up and down like a rollercoaster.
hanspampel
Banned
You talk about a 512 bit interface here.
makes the SOC just bigger, more expensive and power hungry
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
16TF would be 3.8x increase from PS4 Pro, or 2.67x increase from Scorpio. If you only compare to base model PS4 and Xbox One it's a great increase... but we already have the half steps providing a large resolution boost and the new systems aren't going to reverse that trend, if anything people will expect a native 4k presentation more frequently than they do on PS4 Pro, vacuuming up more power.
I would be very happy with 20tf in 2020-2021, but am skeptical they could reach that in a $399 SoC. It will ultimately come down to Navi, it's successor architecture, and the 7nm node as to how good they can ultimately be at an affordable price. Maybe in a few years we'll be going "haha how dumb we all thought they'd never reach 20 and they gave us 25!" or even my pessimistic 16tf could end up being optimistic if future architectures are underwhelming or get delayed significantly.