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[E3] Do we really need the next-gen consoles so soon?
- Thread starter The_Observer
- Start date
Mochilador
Member
I hope this gen lasts another 4 years, I am not ready for a new generation.
LordOfChaos
Member
I'd really hope this gen doesn't go on till 2022 as the main gen. We're already feeling the CPU limits. 2020 would be fine, 2022 would be as draggy as the 7th gen.
If the next gen launches in 2020, I'd still expect this gen to get a good tail end of support probably running your four years, since the architectures will be so similar.
Danjin44
The nicest person on this forum
I feel like we had same conversation in PS3/360 era. You guys really think we gonna get 4K 60FPS as standard in next gen? Then you are asking for disappointment because developers use that extra power for more higher resolution, more detailed models and bigger worlds while the game will still run at 30.
LordOfChaos
Member
When did I say that? I've been correcting that notion if anything.
And the tail end of the 7th gen was awful for sub even 720p resolutions and framerates that faltered even under 30, so even if the next gen wasn't 1080p/60 all the time it was still more than past time for the 7th gen to retire. The same way as that, I'm saying the 8th gen will feel pretty old by 2022, and the 9th gen doesn't have to do 4K/60 all the time, nor do I expect it to, for it to be a substantial step up from these puny Jaguar cores.
More reason I think 2020 is perfect, and 2022 doesn't get us much extra on current roadmaps, so neither will want to give up those years of marketshare.
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Danjin44
The nicest person on this forum
Sorry I didn't mean just you, I mostly talking in general. I feel like people who want to next gen as fast as possible expecting some big changes and that exact thing with hoped for in PS3/360 era.
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EventHorizon
Member
One thing I really loved about The Last of Us 2 and Ghost of Tsushima demos was that the thing that got the most attention wasn't the graphics, but the animation and world simulation. These are the things that are going to make a huge jump in quality when we finally get to the next generation and will justify its existence. We are just starting to push past raw graphical power as a selling point for games, and a massively upgraded CPU in the next gen will open the floodgates.
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UltimaKilo
Gold Member
To everyone's point: the leap right now, or even next year, won't be big enough. Are we close to getting there? Probably. But 4K isn't widely adopted yet (it will be in 1-2 years) and anything built now won't be powerful enough for VR.
EventHorizon
Member
Nothing is happening this year. Next year(2019) is when the technology needed for the next gen hits production. 2020 is when that new technology has matured enough to be put into consoles. A new console could release in 2019 if the platform owner was willing to subsidize it, otherwise 2020 is the low risk option. Going beyond 2020 makes no sense because we would not see another leap in technology anytime soon. Platforms would just be waiting to sell older and older tech.
As for VR, on consoles we need a leap in tracking more than we need a leap in visuals. Paradoxically if we wait long enough, the processing power needed for VR graphics starts to go down. With tracking and foveated rendering, the CPU/GPU will only have to render a small portion of the total image at high resolution. So I predict we will first get a multi camera tracking solution for VR on consoles followed up later with a new eye tracking headset with increased resolution.
thelastword
Banned
Yes, we need them in November of 2020......When 7nm tech matures and we can have a beastly GPU+CPU in a nice/small form factor........
.......with more than adequate cooling.
.......with more than adequate cooling.
GTR R35_Supra RZ
Banned
It's not soon OP, don't pay attention to gueeses and weak ass rumors. Next gen "should" be in your hands round 21'-22'...maybe.
MightySquirrel
Banned
At this point it's all but confirmed that it's coming holiday 2020.
DarkoMaledictus
Tier Whore
Have the impression this generation never even started. No enough classics or good memories with games. Seems way too soon...
I keep getting the feeling that Sony is getting real close to announcing the PS5. So I wouldn't be surprised if it comes out next year. Sony could just pull a Microsoft and just 4k everything with the PS5, if it is backwards compatible. It would be an easy way to show off the improvements but I kinda feel that wouldn't be enough. This also would explain the somewhat odd E3 if they plan on going big next year. This unfortunately would give them a massive headstart on first party games since the 5 studios Microsoft just aquired/created would still need 2 to 3 more years to have some games showable. I'm really hoping that Sony will not focus so much on the buzz word 4k but on the other improvements they have for games.
rokkerkory
Member
2020 is still 2 years away by then we'll need new h/w for sure. 
The_Observer
Member
Late 2021 would be perfect for me. 2020 is okayish but I hope we won't see anything next year. Of course, if provided the games shown will look like the way they looked on the show.
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Console gens shouldn't last more than 6 years, otherwise they lose excitement and it jeopardizes their industry.
New console launches are some of the most exciting times in all of gaming. And I primarily game on PC. I also appreciate how new console gens are the catalyst to pushing higher PC graphics so I'm kinda self-interested on the matter. Instead of console game at high FPS, you actually get some next gen graphics with new gens.
New console launches are some of the most exciting times in all of gaming. And I primarily game on PC. I also appreciate how new console gens are the catalyst to pushing higher PC graphics so I'm kinda self-interested on the matter. Instead of console game at high FPS, you actually get some next gen graphics with new gens.
tryDEATH
Member
I think a more important element to the whole next-gen is the mid-gen refresh, which will have a positive impact when it comes to development for next-gen. By that time we will have had 4k games on more limited hardware with the Pro and X, so the leap in 4k between the generations should be much more apparent and significant. It will allow developers to ramp it up to another level, instead of going from strictly 1080p to 4k in a giant leap with out and real experiance developing or know-how in optimization like it would have been with the base consoles. 2020 seems to be the ideal time for it to be announced and released considering all the hardware that is being developed and manufactured. Price point will this time be a much more hotly contested issue so cut costing will be at a all time high.
In regards to 4K60 it should be much easier to accomplish in certain games, but expecting it to be the standard for all games is silly, we are starting to plateau in technology, especially in affordable consumer technology so keeping expectations grounded should be a real emphasis for Sony and MS.
In regards to 4K60 it should be much easier to accomplish in certain games, but expecting it to be the standard for all games is silly, we are starting to plateau in technology, especially in affordable consumer technology so keeping expectations grounded should be a real emphasis for Sony and MS.
DunDunDunpachi
Banned
The PS4 and the Switch very well might be my final two consoles for the next decade or more.
I'd be happy if this generation lasted another 5 strong years. Consoles don't need to keep chasing power so hard like they have been. PCs do a better job of getting that cutting-edge power anyway, so why not let consoles ride out longer generations? I care more about the games, and every gamer knows that some of a system's best gems come out during the later years of the console's lifespan.
I'd be happy if this generation lasted another 5 strong years. Consoles don't need to keep chasing power so hard like they have been. PCs do a better job of getting that cutting-edge power anyway, so why not let consoles ride out longer generations? I care more about the games, and every gamer knows that some of a system's best gems come out during the later years of the console's lifespan.
Zog
Banned
When you can't get the latest games on your consoles because only PC's are powerful enough to run them, you may see how we got here.
Consoles have been chasing PC's but they can't compete. Unless we go back to a world where PC and console games are rarely the same this is the course Sony and Microsoft are on. Remember back in the 90's when there was some crossover with the 16/32/64 bit consoles but not much crossover with PC and console? Good times.
You are right, chasing power is a problem but do people really want to go back to a time when PC's and Consoles were in two different worlds?
LordOfChaos
Member
I'm seeing this trend of "it won't ____ so may as well not". "It won't hit 4K/60 all the time, what are people expecting of it" "It won't reach PCs, they they shouldn't try to keep chasing".
Those things don't change that we get to a point where hardware is higher performing at the right price, that we may as well upgrade. Going from the 7th gen to the 8th gen didn't get us 1080p/60 all the time, and they were like last years upper-mid range PCs even on launch date, but those things don't matter, the 7th gen was still strangling game scope by the end of it and we had frequent framerate drops and even PC games were held back in scope until a new generation lifted the baseline.
It'll be the same here. On 7nm, Ryzen cores will be as small as Jaguar cores were on 28, when the 8th gen launched. We're already feeling CPU limits in several areas. And while one shrink was already used for a GPU bump, 7nm Navi should reasonably get us to 7x the base PS4 at least. And then memory limits etc etc.
2020, or late 2019, it'll be time. 5 years? Gosh, we'll be holding back games as bad as the late 7th gen by 2023. I'm happy to end the 8th gen just before we start to begrudge it.
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DunDunDunpachi
Banned
Yes, actually, I do want to go back to that time. The development environment for these games is totally different than it was 10 years ago, let alone 20 years ago. The notion that consoles "won't get the biggest PC games if they're too far behind in power" is demonstrably false when you look at all the ports (quality aside, since I'm not informed enough to debate that) that mobiles and tablets receive. Many of the biggest breakout hits in the last 10 years have been from small, indie companies, anyway. Power is mattering less and less. PCs already lost that battle, and they didn't lose it to consoles. They lost it to mobile. Consoles just get to sit in the middle and benefit from the outcome.
Show me the avalanche of high-end PC games that consoles "just can't play". What I tend to see happening is the popular PC games will get a console port a few years later, it end up selling gangbusters, and everyone is happy. I'm not denying PCs massive catalogue of great-looking games, but games that become popular enough will tend to get a console port down the road. People arguing about "consoles holding back gaming" are stuck in the PS2-era.
These consoles should upgrade someday, but we just got a mid-generation bump. Why not enjoy an extra 2 years due to that bump? What would be so bad about a console getting strong support for a solid 8-10 years, and sell 200+ million lifetime units? One of the downsides of too quickly moving to the next generation is that market penetration for gaming is shallower. When mass-market consumers see a big library piling up and a cheap ($50-150 USD) price, they're liable to snap it up. We saw this happen with the PS1 and especially the PS2, which doubled as a DVD player. It happened with the DS. It happened with the Game Boy, too. Nowadays, these things are perfectly good Netflix/Hulu/Prime/YouTube boxes that can also play a big library of games. I'm actually disappointed that the PS3 didn't have a longer tail-end after the PS4 launched. I bet the market would've been fine getting a few more years of cross-gen ports on the PS3 and 360.
When I look at the overall changing trends in consumer tech, we are buying phones and tablets and TV sets less frequently. Why must there be a 5-year console cycle? I think that idea is outdated. If we aren't still seeing new games come out on PS4 in 2025, I think Sony is throwing money away.
I fundamentally deny the idea that consoles hold back gaming. Sorry, but there's little correlation between the length of the generation and a decline in high-end PC games. Mobile is a thing that PC must contend with, even if you take consoles out of the equation. All the bigger PC publishers are always thinking of ways to down-port their games to mobile or at least to put a spin-off on mobile. So, this concept that consoles -- which are significantly more powerful than our average smartphone, I'd wager -- are holding back PC is simply wrong. It's not a real thing anymore, no more than handhelds hold back consoles. Can anyone genuinely claim that the DS or PSP were holding back the PS3 and 360? Did the Vita hold back the PS4? Did the 3DS hold back the Wii U? The two things are not related. So why is the power of consoles somehow related to high-end PC games?
I've never seen this demonstrated using facts. It's like a urban myth that won't go away.
If gaming is becoming a service, then the hardware matters less and less. As long as it can run the service, why upgrade? Our consoles are reaching this point. People are upgrading their other electronics less frequently, too. The rise of streaming services has greatly extended the viable lifespans of these devices. Prior to the recent launch of the Bedrock Edition, PS3 was still being kept up-to-date with Minecraft patches. A 12-year-old system still compatible with the newest version of Minecraft. You think Timmy gives a flying hamburger about 7 nanometer dies coming out in the next year as long as he can still play Minecraft on his PS3? This is the future of things instead of a fast-paced hardware market. We've already seen it happen to phones and TVs. It'll happen to gaming consoles next. The gaming companies that try to push too fast will end up getting burned.
Zog
Banned
You and me both. More and more I see little point in owning more than one console because they end up with almost the same library anyway. If I was a PC gamer (I'm not) I wouldn't need a console at all. I remember wondering if my Sega Genesis could run Final Fantasy III (SNES) and if my SNES could run a Sonic game. They had their strengths and weakness and weren't just clones of each other. Sometimes we even saw two different versions of the same title on different consoles like Aladdin. PC wasn't even in the same world because most PC games were designed around a mouse and keyboard and were never designed to be ported to a console. Back in those days the PC games that did get ported didn't usually play well like Populous: The Beginning and Starcraft 64.
I'm just saying that the longer the console cycle continues, the bigger the gap between PC's and consoles. I am fine with that but that's just me. The more I see people talk about resolution the more I realize that this power race will only end in prices so high that most people are forced to stop gaming.
AndrewRyan
Member
The standard TV nowadays is 4K/60fps. Next-gen should start when they can match these specs.
https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/insomniac-60fps-no-more
They're noticably worse for this, IMO. Ratchet & Clank in particular.
This would really help. Hopefully Free-sync becomes a standard to the point where Nvidia supports it too.
ReBurn
Gold Member
PS4 Pro and Xbox One X can already do 4K/60. Developers just choose to make games that render at lower resolutions and framerates on those machines. No matter what hardware is in the next generation, developers will still be able to choose how to spend the resource budget and there's no guarantee that they will choose 4K/60.
manfestival
Member
I don't know why people expect 60 fps as some sort of generational thing when it's the developers choice
LordOfChaos
Member
I don't get these analogies. Most multiplats weren't doing things like DS and PS3, they grouped as mobile, OR PS3/360/PC. Why would anyone say a DS was holding back a PS3? Which game ran on both DS and PS3? I think those analogies show the problem isn't being understood the same way, this is about when games have to run on multiple systems and consider the weakest link. You can scale down graphics, but it's not so easy when something is fundamental to a game, such as CPU based AI.
And you can absolutely see the limits of when a mobile game is ported to a more powerful system. Sure it's prettied up, but you can just tell the fundamental level of world simulation came out of a 3DS, because the base game systems were made to the hardware capabilities of the 3DS. Here's one.
As for the specifics of the PS3/360 holding PCs back by 2010-2013, it was pretty apparent with Crytek, Bungie, etc, Bungie straight up said dropping the 7th gen was a huge boon to the level of worlds they could create. Here's another example where making things able to run on the 7th gen meant a downgrade in the dynamic nature of world simulation, skyboxes, etc.
By 2023, the 5 years more some have suggested, I don't care what little timmy understands, games will absolutely be held back in vision if there's no hardware upgrade. Several games are already struggling with the puny Jaguar cores and dropping frames just trying to hit 30. Minecraft will also run on last weeks potato salad, so I'm not sure the point of that, we're looking to see next gens Horizon or God of War or Halo, things that push the technology...Not minecraft.
Guaranteed devs are already planning for it, it's no secret with Bethesda, 343 and the Slipstream engine, etc etc.
And what's too fast? 7 years would also be longer than historical average, by 2020.
10 years by 2023, and one of the two might rather get burned by being too slow and losing up to three years of market share.
Here's a good read if you're still not convinced.
https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/...e-game-changer-for-next-gen-console-in-theory
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We never needed the mid gen ps4 pro. PS4 pro struggles to play games at 4k, and still has issues keeping a locked 60 fps on some 1080p games. A next gen console would have made more sense had sony let the base ps4 run its course till 2019 or 2020, and then release a new gen console that handles 4k, 60 fps with no issues. As for the Xbox one X, it is a lot more capable, but the problem is that it just came out last year, so releasing a next gen Xbox too soon would be silly and would piss off the people who just bought the X.
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Death Dealer
Member
So soon ? I think we're on schedule. Next Christmas, PS4 will be 6 years old. Spring 2020 seems like as good of time as any. I for sure don't want them to wait another 3-4 years.
Klik
Member
Console gen should last 6 years.PS5 in 2019 is an excellent thing.It has been said that PS4 PRO doesn't extend console cycle,it exist only for people who want to play on a higher resolution.
PS3 lasted 7 years solely for a reason it was an economic recession and PS3 just started to make profit in 2010.
If Sony subsidize PS5 for 100$ we could get something like 12TF custom made NAVI gpu,8 core Zen 2,16gb gddr6 + 4gb ddr4 for for 399$
PS3 lasted 7 years solely for a reason it was an economic recession and PS3 just started to make profit in 2010.
If Sony subsidize PS5 for 100$ we could get something like 12TF custom made NAVI gpu,8 core Zen 2,16gb gddr6 + 4gb ddr4 for for 399$
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DunDunDunpachi
Banned
I'm in two minds whether to build a powerful PC or wait for next gen, as I feel visual fidelity is just where I want it. Can't imagine where the next machines will take it. Have a ps4 pro and and very happy with it on my 55 inch tv everything looks crisp and runs smoothly. So is there any point other than mods and freedom of choice to PC gaming?
LordOfChaos
Member
If you can wait and save a few more years, getting the generation of PC hardware right after what the newest gen consoles launch with is usually a sound strategy for longevity.
i.e the 8800 lasted for frickin ever, coming the gen right after the PS3/360.
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thelastword
Banned
The truth is none of the mid gen consoles are 4k beasts or monsters. The pitch on PS4 PRO was checkerboard rendering, but too few are doing it. What's with all the 1440p's and 1620p's or even 1800p's on PRO? Give us 2160CB, save that GPU bandwidth for better AA, AF, AO, Shadows and rock solid perf. 2160CB would have been much better in something like FarCry 5 on PRO, 2160CB on Dark Souls remastered with a 60fps locked with higher rez effects would have been ideal. It would offer a sharper image, TAA and much more headroom to perhaps slide some better graphical features in...
I think the concept of PRO was good and well researched and engineered, it's just that some of the execution with devs is not forthcoming. Still, as a 4k TV owner, I'm very impressed with PRO. I get a much sharper image in Horizon, GOW, GTS and many other titles and that's good enough for me this gen. This gen was never about 4k intially, these consoles were just stopgap measures for those who have 4k TV's and who love some extra pixels for a crisper image on their screen. I think it serves them fine...,and it's really optional because if you don't have a 4k TV, the regular PS4 is perfectly fine and perf is pretty good on all titles just the same.....So I'm happy the pro exists, my only gripe is that Sony should have mandated the devs to use CB some more....even third parties..
manfestival
Member
The problem with the waiting game is that you will never be satisfied waiting. You can wait forever since people will literally tell you to wait even at the release of a new line up since the next line up will be THAT much better. I would recommend finding a good deal on something since deals pop up pretty often and just hop on in. However, I would strongly recommend having a budget for either a 1070ti or 1080 or higher. I have a 970 desktop and a 1070 laptop. My 1070 cleans the floor with my desktop but I feel like it is just scraping the bottom and would probably be fine till maybe the 1st quarter of next gen. It struggles with only like 2 games so far. FYI I do all my gaming at 1080 and have no current desire for 4k.
