EA forecasting 13 million for Battlefront, implies Titanfall 2 out by March 2017

#1
From the call.

To note, "70 million-ish" would be revenue, not units. Given EA gets ~$48 per unit shipped, that'd be approximately 1.5 million copies shipped in Q1 for its old release window.

'Feel pretty great' for 13M units of Battlefront.
They are ensuring that their Frostbite engine is able to play well and perform well with VR, to prepare themselves for the VR wave in the future.

They see Mirror's Edge as a "70 million-ish title for the quarter", which as noted before, is moving to next year.

They are confident that Mass Effect, Titanfall, and Star Wars (tail end) should help offset the Star Wars launch(in terms of trying to match the money Star Wars will be taking in this year) and help prop up their FY17 numbers.
 
#3
When they say FY17, do they mean 2016?
April 2016 through March 2017.

Fiscal years are named after the year they end in, but they're not tied to calendar years for video game companies since their products are often delayed from October - December to January - March, and the idea is to minimize the impact on the overall fiscal year.
 
#5
So we'll see Titanfall 2 at next years E3 for a 2017 release? Respawn must be adding a SP mode or hopefully a co op one.
I'd expect Titanfall 2 in March 2017 unless Battlefield 6 isn't releasing next fiscal year, which that comment kind of hints at.

They wouldn't need Titanfall and Mass Effect to fill the gap from Battlefront given mainline Battlefield sell 15+ million copies.

In that case, Titanfall 2 would be November 2016.
 
Jun 3, 2014
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#6
I'd expect Titanfall 2 in March 2017 unless Battlefield 6 isn't releasing next fiscal year, which that comment kind of hints at.

They wouldn't need Titanfall and Mass Effect to fill the gap from Battlefront given mainline Battlefield sell 15+ million copies.

In that case, Titanfall 2 would be November 2016.
Makes sense, I've always thought Respawn would go head to head against Ghosts 2. They want to capture that CoD fanbase and IW's next game is their best chance at doing that.
 
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#8
April 2016 through March 2017.

Fiscal years are named after the year they end in, but they're not tied to calendar years for video game companies since their products are often delayed from October - December to January - March, and the idea is to minimize the impact on the overall fiscal year.
Ah I see, so for example, Battlefield hardline was delayed in FY 2015 (from its original October release date 2014) to still FY2015 in March, as they still wanted good sales/revenue in that FY. So that's why they didn't delay it to after March otherwise that would have slipped into FY2016.

I think I'm getting the hang of this now (I hope!) :p
 

benny_a

extra source of jiggaflops
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#9
Nirolak, how do you get $48 per shipped title?

Maybe I haven't kept up but if we're talking $8-12 for platform royalties + printing + a dollar shipping that still means there is the retailer cut left.

Or are you calculating the European higher average selling price in there?
 
Mar 23, 2015
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#11
Makes sense, I've always thought Respawn would go head to head against Ghosts 2. They want to capture that CoD fanbase and IW's next game is their best chance at doing that.
Wait, so you think Titanfall 2 will release in November 2016 to go against Ghosts 2? But why would they when Battlefield 5 (or 6 if we're taking into account Hardline) is releasing at that time? Unless they're going to do the BF Hardline route and start releasing Battlefield games in March in the same FY so that Titanfall 2 is November '16 and Battlefield 5 is March '17.
 
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#13
Wasn't the original plan to have Battlefront this fall and Battlefield 5 next fall? That never made sense to me to begin with because I don't think DICE Sweden could put out three games in such a short period of time (Mirror's Edge). Visceral is working on a Star Wars title, so unless DICE LA is making a Battlefield for next year, Titanfall 2 as EA's big shooter for FY17 makes sense.
 
Mar 23, 2015
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#15
Wasn't the original plan to have Battlefront this fall and Battlefield 5 next fall? That never made sense to me to begin with because I don't think DICE Sweden could put out three games in such a short period of time (Mirror's Edge). Visceral is working on a Star Wars title, so unless DICE LA is making a Battlefield for next year, Titanfall 2 as EA's big shooter for FY17 makes sense.
EA can still release a big shooter in FY17 - March 2017 can see the release of either Battlefield or Titanfall 2.
 
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#16
Nirolak, how do you get $48 per shipped title?

Maybe I haven't kept up but if we're talking $8-12 for platform royalties + printing + a dollar shipping that still means there is the retailer cut left.

Or are you calculating the European higher average selling price in there?
I'm guessing it's because EA pays Sony and Microsoft for the discs, royalty included. The $12 is for the retailer. When a game gets sold at retail, the royalty part has already been paid for, and EA gets the $48 as revenue. Which is then used to recoup the royalty/development/distribution costs.

Just my guess though.
 

benny_a

extra source of jiggaflops
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#20
I'm guessing it's because EA pays Sony and Microsoft for the discs, royalty included. The $12 is for the retailer. When a game gets sold at retail, the royalty part has already been paid for, and EA gets the $48 as revenue. Which is then used to recoup the royalty/development/distribution costs.

Just my guess though.
Yeah, and that whole thing means Sony gets between $8-12 per disk game depending on what kind of game it is and strategic partnerships and such.

I remember years ago when I asked Pachter on GAF and he said in his forecasts he uses $36 as the publisher revenue.

But this was before day1 digital and me being mostly ignorant about the geographic differences in ASP so maybe $48 is a better number to use for now, although I think it's too high.

Anyway this statement could have just been a dodge for the lowered guidance in that quarter and Mirror's Edge is an easy example to use.
 
May 13, 2013
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#21
Nirolak, how do you get $48 per shipped title?

Maybe I haven't kept up but if we're talking $8-12 for platform royalties + printing + a dollar shipping that still means there is the retailer cut left.

Or are you calculating the European higher average selling price in there?
Wondering the same. I can get Battlefront for €49.99 - that's $45 after taking into account VAT.

If his 'roughly $48'-figure is right, that'd mean the retailer earns nothing + Sony/Microsoft earn nothing.
 
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#23
Wait, so you think Titanfall 2 will release in November 2016 to go against Ghosts 2? But why would they when Battlefield 5 (or 6 if we're taking into account Hardline) is releasing at that time? Unless they're going to do the BF Hardline route and start releasing Battlefield games in March in the same FY so that Titanfall 2 is Nov. 16, and BF:5 is March 2017.
I think they'll delay Battlefield yeah, Battlefield will sell well regardless of when it's released whereas Titanfall will get a huge push from people avoiding Ghosts 2 like the plague after the abomination that was the first one and looking for a new shooter and they'll actually hit the christmas rush this time. Battlefield on the other hand won't get a huge push from CoD as they're completely different types of shooters. I'm not saying Titanfall is CoD, but it's a lot more like CoD than Battlefield and has far more to gain than BF does going up against a bad COD.
 
#24
1.5 million would be a very realistic goal from EA for Mirror's Edge Reboot. The first one was initially projected for three million, but topped out at around 2.5 million years later. A million of those came from within its launch quarter.

I also think it was probably a good idea to move it overstuffed Q1. I think Dishonored 2 was supposed to be in Q2, but I see that being delayed leaving Bethsada's other big title Doom on its own for that quarter.
 
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#25
The interesting thing about this is it implies Battlefield 5 got delayed after EA just confirmed as recently as July that it was coming in 2016. I wonder why? Unless there is a surprise coming and they are doing something like launching it in the summer
 
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#27
Right, from April next year to March '17. I expect Titanfall 2 to come out next November unless DICE LA is cooking up something to fit that shooter slot.
So you think Battlefield 5 will release in FY18? I thought EA said otherwise? I personally believe Titanfall 2 will release in March '17 and Battlefield 5 will release in Oct '16 due to how efficient DICE is with their games. They've already got a fantastic engine to work with that's pretty much set up and relatively easy to work with (they've definitely had a lot to practice with the amount of Frostbite titles that have released this gen already), and they do have that DICE LA studio, so a lot of pressure can be taken off DICE Stockholm, who have either just finished SW:BF or making post launch content. I also expect Mirrors Edge 2 to not require as much effort as Battlefield 5 either as the scale is much smaller and it's MP only.

Do you get where I'm coming from?

I'd expect next holiday to go to Battlefield. Unless they deem it necessary to delay it.
Yup, agreed. I think DICE can make it. Worse comes to worst, they release it/delay it to March '17 like Hardline which is still in the same FY of 2017, and release Titanfall 2 in November instead.
 
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#28
The interesting thing about this is ot implies Battlefield 5 got delayed after EA just confirmed as recently as July that it was coming in 2016. I wonder why? Unless there us a surprise coming and they are doing something like launching it in the summer
Unless DICE Sweden is a lot larger than it was two years ago I just can't see Battlefield 5 coming next year. Not unless they offload Battlefront support to DICE LA immediately after launch. But even that doesn't make sense since DICE LA is working on their own title.

I honestly wonder how long though until games like COD and Battlefield become platforms for content rather than annualized titles.
 
Apr 21, 2015
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#29
I'd expect next holiday to go to Battlefield. Unless they deem it necessary to delay it.
This is where I was at as well but they specifically said Titanfall will help offset Battlefront next Holiday implying its in that slot. And as big as Battlefront will be a combined BF5 and Titanfall 2 on both PS4 and Xbone would outsell Battlefront easily

Unless DICE Sweden is a lot larger than it was two years ago I just can't see Battlefield 5 coming next year. Not unless they offload Battlefront support to DICE LA immediately after launch. But even that doesn't make sense since DICE LA is working on their own title.

I honestly wonder how long though until games like COD and Battlefield become platforms for content rather than annualized titles.
Most of the team working on Battlefront didn't work on BF4. The main Battlefield team hasn't worked on anything since 2013
 
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#30
Unless DICE Sweden is a lot larger than it was two years ago I just can't see Battlefield 5 coming next year. Not unless they offload Battlefront support to DICE LA immediately after launch. But even that doesn't make sense since DICE LA is working on their own title.

I honestly wonder how long though until games like COD and Battlefield become platforms for content rather than annualized titles.
Nvm, just realised you were the same guy I replied to xD
 
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#34
I'm just gonna quote my post from above to add my perspective on why I think DICE Sweden can make Battlefield 5 for next year.
If Battlefield 5 does come next year all I can see it being is another modern warfare title with a large amount of reused assets. Not ideal when modern warfare titles are experiencing the same kind of exhaustion as World War II titles did 8 years ago.

But you are right, at this point the engine is one elegant piece of software, I just didn't expect only a year or so of full development on Battlefield 5 to be all it gets after the disaster of Battlefield 4.

Most of the team working on Battlefront didn't work on BF4. The main Battlefield team hasn't worked on anything since 2013
I didnt think this was the case. From following the DICE devs on twitter I got the impression that it was the core team working on Battlefront. DICE got the go ahead for Battlefront in May 2013, I assumed when they passed off Battlefield 4 support to DICE LA they went full force on Battlefront to meet the timetable, with a small team prototyping Mirror's Edge 2.
 
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#36
If Battlefield 5 does come next year all I can see it being is another modern warfare title with a large amount of reused assets. Not ideal when modern warfare titles are experiencing the same kind of exhaustion as World War II titles did 8 years ago.

But you are right, at this point the engine is one elegant piece of software, I just didn't expect only a year or so of full development on Battlefield 5 to be all it gets after the disaster of Battlefield 4.
Yeah I get ya. We'll see though, I hope DICE LA can at least introduce a fresh perspective or innovations into the next title
Or provide us with Bad Company 3 #believe
 
Apr 21, 2015
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#37
If Battlefield 5 does come next year all I can see it being is another modern warfare title with a large amount of reused assets. Not ideal when modern warfare titles are experiencing the same kind of exhaustion as World War II titles did 8 years ago.

But you are right, at this point the engine is one elegant piece of software, I just didn't expect only a year or so of full development on Battlefield 5 to be all it gets after the disaster of Battlefield 4.
It would be a 3 year dev cycle for the staff. Again Battlefront team is not the same team as BF4. If BF5 hits in 2016 its a 3 year development cycle
 
#39
Nirolak, how do you get $48 per shipped title?

Maybe I haven't kept up but if we're talking $8-12 for platform royalties + printing + a dollar shipping that still means there is the retailer cut left.

Or are you calculating the European higher average selling price in there?
I'm guessing it's because EA pays Sony and Microsoft for the discs, royalty included. The $12 is for the retailer. When a game gets sold at retail, the royalty part has already been paid for, and EA gets the $48 as revenue. Which is then used to recoup the royalty/development/distribution costs.

Just my guess though.
Bingo. Revenue is what the store pays EA. Royalties just eat into EA's profits from said $48.
 
Apr 21, 2015
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#40
I didnt think this was the case. From following the DICE devs on twitter I got the impression that it was the core team working on Battlefront. DICE got the go ahead for Battlefront in May 2013, I assumed when they passed off Battlefield 4 support to DICE LA they went full force on Battlefront to meet the timetable, with a small team prototyping Mirror's Edge 2.
Its not the same staff. Direct quote from Senior Producer of the game

"We're not the Battlefield team. Some of us come from a history of working on Battlefield, and others, like myself, have never worked on Battlefield. There was never a sort of 'we're not going to make Battlefield.' It was more 'we're going to make it what we want it to be.'

I think that it was important for us to reboot Battlefront and to create something unique. We wanted it to fit the franchise. Battlefield is great, don't get me wrong, but we didn't really feel like just creating a skin on Battlefield was the way to go to do Star Wars justice".
 
Mar 8, 2014
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#41
I wonder what the budget for Mirror's Edge is. It certainly looks like a very high budget game, but it seems like EA is being smart with their engine costs this gen. Frostbyte really seems to be working out for them, which is nice to see. EA has been doing fantastic lately in terms of game quality, I've been very satisfied with their portfolio of released and upcoming games. I'm glad to see they're doing so well with that.
 
Apr 21, 2015
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#43
Ah, well that explains it. I guess the senior staff are involved with all titles then.

Hopefully they can do something else besides another modern shooter with Battlefield 5 then.
Yeah its interesting because the main team has been working on the next Battlefield since 2013 so next year would be a 3 year cycle and if they wait until the next year its a 4 year which is pretty damn long.
 
Apr 21, 2015
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#45
So Titanfall 2 to Launch before March 2017, So that means Fall 2016 or January or February in 2017 ?
It seems to be implied that Titanfall 2 is Holiday 2016 as they stated they are counting on it and Mass Effect to make up for Battlefront YoY. Thats why there is this Battlefield 5 debate as it was assumed it was in the Holiday slot but now maybe not.
 
Mar 12, 2015
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#46
As of July it was a 2016 title with "military style shooter" implying modern day

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/new-battlefield-confirmed-for-2016-release/1100-6429344/

I wonder if they are changing things up and this is a summer launch?
The "military style shooter" was said because of Hardline, which was cops. However, this quote sounds like more of the same to me. :/
Further details on the next Battlefield game were not provided today. However, In a 2013 interview, DICE producer Patrick Bach teased that Battlefield 5 was already in development. He said the game will offer "More features. More extras. More destruction."
This was probably very early in development so there is still hope for Bad Company 3!
 
Apr 21, 2015
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#47
Whats interesting is this quote basically implying the original plan straight up was for BF5 to be in the same slot Battlefront is in now.

"What we've said is that our intention over the next couple of years is to have a first-person shooter as one of the core titles," he replied. "This year it's Star Wars: Battlefront. Next year, it's another Battlefield title."
Do we think Summer 2016 is impossible for a launch time frame? Does it have to be Holiday?
 
Feb 19, 2015
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#48
It seems to be implied that Titanfall 2 is Holiday 2016 as they stated they are counting on it and Mass Effect to make up for Battlefront YoY. Thats why there is this Battlefield 5 debate as it was assumed it was in the Holiday slot but now maybe not.
Battlefield would be great as a September game, it can't compete with COD, it just never has. Would love to have Battlefield 5 as a September game followed by Titanfall 2 as a November game
 
Feb 19, 2013
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#49
Ah, well that explains it. I guess the senior staff are involved with all titles then.

Hopefully they can do something else besides another modern shooter with Battlefield 5 then.
Give us 2143 DICE, featuring Titan Mode 2.0. Once they fixed the server issues with Titan mode it was fantastic.

Given the popularity of futuristic sci-fi shooters these days it would be a perfect time to give us it a 2142 sequel. Destiny, Titanfall, Halo and (most likely) Battlefront all sell well.

Do it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!