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EA: now is a bad time for new IP, best wait for "spectacular" next gen consoles

StuBurns

Banned
It's easier to invest a money into an innovative game if it's smaller and less expensive. It's also easier for a game to BE innovative if it's smaller and less expensive. The indie market (which is what, ostensibly, PSN/XBLA emulate) will naturally have more exciting and fresh products because it's you have so many more people making those games. To say EA should just do what that game company is doing and release something cool and fresh is disingenuous because they aren't mobile enough to take a gamble like that and get away with it if it bombs.

That's WHY we have PSN/XBLA, so companys can gamble without getting burning for tens of millions of dollars. (Bombas notwithstanding)
I didn't say they should do that, I said them not doing anything new is why people don't care. Journey is just an extreme example of the userbase still being there, ready to buy a game when it's impressive.

What was the last major release that was anything really new? LA Noire maybe? It's been a while, but it sold five million copies. I think if something bold, good and well marketed launched this fall, it would do fine.
 

Seance

Banned
Which a lot of posters will be disappointed. The gap between Wii u and ps720 will not be the same as the gap we had with Wii and ps360.

Not quite, but close. All indicators point towards a repeat of this gen though. To call WiiU an overclocked 360 is optimistic in a sense, considering it's underclocked CPU. The only clear-cut advantage it has is the 1GB memory.
Durango will no doubt sell at a loss, probably 399 at retail. When you consider that WiiU is selling for 249 (base SKU rumor) this year at break even or possibly profit, Durango has a LOT of headroom for being a "spectacular" piece of hardware, in comparison.

Obviously WiiU is "technically" a next-gen console. But if gamers and developers don't perceive it so, what does it matter?
 

Bisnic

Really Really Exciting Member!
Not quite, but close. All indicators point towards a repeat of this gen though. To call WiiU an overclocked 360 is optimistic in a sense, considering it's underclocked CPU. The only clear-cut advantage it has is the 1GB memory.
Durango will no doubt sell at a loss, probably 399 at retail. When you consider that WiiU is selling for 249 (base SKU rumor) this year at break even or possibly profit, Durango has a LOT of headroom for being a "spectacular" piece of hardware, in comparison.

Obviously WiiU is "technically" a next-gen console. But if gamers and developers don't perceive it so, what does it matter?

All i know is that the next 2 years are going to be very interesting. Especially if the Wii U fails to impress the general public with its Gamepad. If people dont like it and sales shows, what does it have left other than Nintendo titles? Third parties will abandon them (again) and we'll be stuck with a console only used to play Nintendo games.

Hopefully i'm wrong in this.
 

Dremark

Banned
There are positives and negatives to early gen new IPs and late gen new IPs, but I think it really depends on what you have going into it.

I think a smaller publisher with less resources is better off launching one early in the generation's life cycle as being within the launch window will get them a lot more attention. I think a good example of this is Resistance: Fall of Man on the PS3 where it was kind of a big fish in a small pond when it came out.

Larger publishers have more resources and having a larger installed base means that their marketing money is more likely to bring more buyers in as most of the people who would consider purchasing already have the hardware and don't have to be convinced to buy both hardware and the title in question.
 

Kintaro

Worships the porcelain goddess
I'm looking forward to the game, but I echo people's thoughts on The Last of Us. Sony 1st party games just don't set the world on fire. Battlefield 3 alone probably outsold all of the Uncharteds put together...which is just kind of sad. =x

No one is waiting on pins and needles for Sony 1st party exclusives.
 

sajj316

Member
Guitar Hero.
Perfect Dark

In addition .. I don't know if you consider Shadow of the Colossus a stellar seller or new IP but that was released in 2005.

Other ones - not sure if you consider them outstanding

- We Love Katamari
- Fahrenheit
 

marrec

Banned
I didn't say they should do that, I said them not doing anything new is why people don't care. Journey is just an extreme example of the userbase still being there, ready to buy a game when it's impressive.

What was the last major release that was anything really new? LA Noire maybe? It's been a while, but it sold five million copies. I think if something bold, good and well marketed launched this fall, it would do fine.

The way games sell on the digital market is completely different though. I'd say that selling fresh and exciting IP for $15 dollars digitally is WAY easier and less risky then starting a new franchise on the HD Twins.

We can assume all day that a good game that's well marketed would sell. But we've seen examples of bold games released in the middle of this generation that sold for shit, so I can understand why these large behemoths of the industry wouldn't want to move right now when interest is at it's lowest point.

In addition .. I don't know if you consider Shadow of the Colossus a stellar seller or new IP but that was released in 2005.

Other ones - not sure if you consider them outstanding

- We Love Katamari
- Fahrenheit

Neither of those games sold well at all. *blink*
 
Not quite, but close. All indicators point towards a repeat of this gen though. To call WiiU an overclocked 360 is optimistic in a sense, considering it's underclocked CPU. The only clear-cut advantage it has is the 1GB memory.
Durango will no doubt sell at a loss, probably 399 at retail. When you consider that WiiU is selling for 249 (base SKU rumor) this year at break even or possibly profit, Durango has a LOT of headroom for being a "spectacular" piece of hardware, in comparison.

Obviously WiiU is "technically" a next-gen console. But if gamers and developers don't perceive it so, what does it matter?

I wouldnt even say close. Wii U is now in the HD territory. Wii U isnt simply a over clocked 360, it supports features that the 360 just doesnt do.

What makes you think developers and gamers dont view it as such? The system isnt even out and GAF is a very very small % of the actual gaming population. As for devs, they are all on lock down with gag orders from Nintendo.
 

StuBurns

Banned
The way games sell on the digital market is completely different though. I'd say that selling fresh and exciting IP for $15 dollars digitally is WAY easier and less risky then starting a new franchise on the HD Twins.

We can assume all day that a good game that's well marketed would sell. But we've seen examples of bold games released in the middle of this generation that sold for shit, so I can understand why these large behemoths of the industry wouldn't want to move right now when interest is at it's lowest point.
Very true, but I personally can't name a wealth of new IPs that sold great around launch either.

Let's say launch is year one, for 360 I'd say that's up to and including Gears more or less. Gears was huge, but what else was there? Lost Planet? That was one million in the first year. Dead Rising? I believe it did similarly.

A million units might be acceptable for some B-tier Japanese game. It's not going to cut it at all next-gen. If a game isn't also on PS360, and it launches in the first year, it's going to have to do remarkably well to break even.
 

Saiyar

Unconfirmed Member
The original God of War only sold about 2.5 million copies. Very good for a new ip, but totally unacceptable for a modern tentpole release. It also released months before the 360 (as opposed to months after the Wii U) and almost a full two years before the PS3.

God of War sold more than 2.5 million in NA alone.
 

mclem

Member
Between TLoU and Puppeteer, I guess Sony didn't get the memo.

While I don't agree with his statements anyway, it's worth bearing in mind that console manufacturers have a whole different set of goals with their game development than a third party developer; that is, the games console manufacturers develop are intended to drive *hardware* adoption, rather than their only goal being to make money.

A console manufacturer has more reasons to investigate new IP at this stage of the hardware cycle than a third party developer.
 

bud23

Member
But is Sleeping Dogs actually selling well?

Yes ,but it´s an exception. Usually at the end of a console generation, games sales are low because the active users are less than at the beginning-mid.

EA is not the only on this idea.Ubisoft thinks the same;
"It's a lot less risky for us to create new IPs and new products when we're in the beginning of a new generation,"
"Our customers are very open to new things. Our customers are reopening their minds, and they are really going after what's best. ... At the end of a console generation, they want new stuff, but they don't buy new stuff as much. They know their friends will play Call of Duty or Assassin's Creed so they go for that. So the end of a cycle is very difficult."
 
The Last of Us might just be a creative pressure valve for the folks over at ND. I mean, they've done nothing but Uncharted since 2005 or 2006. Maybe the change in settings was needed to keep them happy/not crazy. The traditional wisdom has always been that it's easiest to launch new IP with new hardware since the player base is actively looking for new things. It doesn't mean new stuff can't sell, but it also doesn't mean EA is wrong to wait until the cycle starts fresh.

On PS1 they made only Crash (3 Platform and 1 Kart), on PS2 they only made Jak (3 platform and 1 Kart). On PS3 they needed to change after 2 Uncharted?
I think that with the new ND team thay had to decide what to do, a new ip or a new J&D. No other option were available at the time (well, PS All Star Battle maybe...)
A J&D would barely sell, I don't think that Sony would allow his most apprecciated team to work on a mid-tier title (from the commercial point of view)
 

Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
Guitar Hero.
Perfect Dark

Wasnt perfect dark considered Golden Eye Girl?

Nonetheless, werent Perfect Dark and Guitar Hero remarkable games???
So doesnt Gibeaus statement still hold?

In addition .. I don't know if you consider Shadow of the Colossus a stellar seller or new IP but that was released in 2005.
Other ones - not sure if you consider them outstanding
- We Love Katamari
- Fahrenheit

We ♥ Katamari was the sequel to Katamari Damacy so it doesnt count as a new IP obviously.

Indigo Prophecy didnt sell that well, nonetheless it was a damn unique game, it was the first game i ever imported....waiting almost 2 weeks for a game was torture but so worth it.

Yeah but name one region outside of the United States where they buy video games. I DARE YOU
Ohhh what an ominous threat....im actually scared to say anything.

But is Sleeping Dogs actually selling well?
Unless im mistaken it is selling very well, ill have to google the results and shit, but this isnt what this thread is about so thats not a priority.


On Topic
Still look at the number of failed good IPs that failed most likely because they came out too late.

  • Psychonauts
  • Jade Empire
  • SW: Republic Commando
  • Dark Corners of the Earth
  • Beyond Good & Evil

Imagine if all these games waited a few months got dat next-gen polish and cross released as launch titles for next gen consoles......im almost 100% sure they would have sold like crazy.

Everyone today is still begging for a new Beyond Good & Evil, and Psychonauts.
 

stuart

Banned
Are there other examples outside of God of War where new IP has launched to exceptional sales?

  • Minecraft
  • LittleBigPlanet
  • Uncharted
  • Guitar Hero
  • Gears of War
  • Bioshock

On Topic
Still look at the number of failed good IPs that failed most likely because they came out too late.

  • Psychonauts
  • Jade Empire
  • SW: Republic Commando
  • Dark Corners of the Earth
  • Beyond Good & Evil

Let me add Panzer Dragoon Saga to that list. It's so damned expensive now because it came out really late in the Saturn's life, and had a very limited run.
 

marrec

Banned
Very true, but I personally can't name a wealth of new IPs that sold great around launch either.

Let's say launch is year one, for 360 I'd say that's up to and including Gears more or less. Gears was huge, but what else was there? Lost Planet? That was one million in the first year. Dead Rising? I believe it did similarly.

A million units might be acceptable for some B-tier Japanese game. It's not going to cut it at all next-gen. If a game isn't also on PS360, and it launches in the first year, it's going to have to do remarkably well to break even.

True, there were a few really great new IPs at 360 launch that didn't sell great:

Condemned and Dead Rising and Lost Planet for example.

They all got sequels, but they didn't sell as well as Halo obviously. Though, this was 7 years ago, what were the sales expectations of new IPs 7 years ago as compared to now? I'd argue that expectations were lower (especially for Microsoft) coming out of last gen into this one. Now executives expect AAA games to sell 5m plus and if they don't, no sequel for you!

If you release Elevator Panic: The Reckoning next month, how well will you expect it to sell as compared to in early 2014 when it doesn't have as many similar looking boxes sitting around it to distract you.

  • Minecraft
  • LittleBigPlanet
  • Uncharted
  • Guitar Hero
  • Gears of War
  • Bioshock

I can't believe you listed Mincraft.

*lol*
 
Is EA just not allowed to ever be correct or something? I don't see anything wrong with this statement at all. Yeah there are some exceptions where franchises leveraged the large install base of their console and the lack of new releases to launch a franchise into success but I think that you have to be a really good and massively appealing game like God of War to do that. See the failure of Psychonauts. It happens but its just more risky.

This late in the console cycle, you already know 360 owners are going to pick up the new Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed and Battlefield games every (other) year, so right now you've already got at least three "givens" to compete with. Those will probably translate over to the next gens but its better to have shiny newness in your game technologically to compete with that. After all, Assassin's Creed was a new IP not too long ago, but started nearer the beginning of the cycle.

As I'm sure EA would tell you, launching a new franchise at the wrong time can very easily kill the franchise, so I'm glad that they're at least trying to be smart about the timing of these so they won't all disappear like Mirror's Edge.
 

Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
  • Minecraft
  • LittleBigPlanet
  • Uncharted
  • Guitar Hero
  • Gears of War
  • Bioshock

Are not following the thread or is it me missing something.

Minecraft - Doesnt give a fuck!
LBP - Not at the end of a cycle
Uncharted - Not at the end of a cycle
Guitar Hero - remarkable game
Gears of War - At the start of a cycle
Bioshock - At the start of a cycle
 

Shion

Member
Wasnt perfect dark considered Golden Eye Girl?

Nonetheless, werent Perfect Dark and Guitar Hero remarkable games???
So doesnt Gibeaus statement still hold?
Of course it does, incredibly successful late games are the exception, not the rule.

Let me add Panzer Dragoon Saga to that list. It's so damned expensive now because it came out really late in the Saturn's life, and had a very limited run.
Okami should be in the list as well.
 
Wouldn't it make sense to get people hooked on an IP while the user base is at it's peak? I don't have any numbers but I'm sure Gears 3 sold more than the original simply due to more people owning a 360 in 2011 than in 2006. Plus there is nothing more exciting than seeing a familiar franchise boosted graphically.

Of course once the new systems are anounced and demoed for the world to see, it's already too late for a lot of new IPs on current systems. They've missed their window. The perfect time to launch a new IP would probably be now or very soon.
 

StuBurns

Banned
They all got sequels, but they didn't sell as well as Halo obviously. Though, this was 7 years ago, what were the sales expectations of new IPs 7 years ago as compared to now? I'd argue that expectations were lower (especially for Microsoft) coming out of last gen into this one. Now executives expect AAA games to sell 5m plus and if they don't, no sequel for you!
Exactly my point. Waiting for next-gen to launch an IP means waiting years into next-gen, because no one is going to be able to realistically guarantee three to four million units in year one on a new IP.

You can make games cheaper, but then they'll be below par with the competition, you can launch them on the current consoles too, but then you're still launching an new IP late in a generation anyway, or you can wait until the new install bases mature to the point they can hold multiple multi-million sales per quarter.

Launching new IPs at the start of a generation always made sense when games could break even with a million units. Now I think it makes much less sense.
 

Seance

Banned
I wouldnt even say close. Wii U is now in the HD territory. Wii U isnt simply a over clocked 360, it supports features that the 360 just doesnt do.

What makes you think developers and gamers dont view it as such? The system isnt even out and GAF is a very very small % of the actual gaming population. As for devs, they are all on lock down with gag orders from Nintendo.

It's just common sense really. Nintendo's pricing strategy has never been to sell at a loss and the base SKU hardware will be $249. WiiU will have DX10 feature set and more RAM, but once the uPad is taken into consideration, not much budget is left for powerful hardware.
 
Exactly my point. Waiting for next-gen to launch an IP means waiting years into next-gen, because no one is going to be able to realistically guarantee three to four million units in year one on a new IP.

You can make games cheaper, but then they'll be below par with the competition, you can launch them on the current consoles too, but then you're still launching an new IP late in a generation anyway, or you can wait until the new install bases mature to the point they can hold multiple multi-million sales per quarter.

Launching new IPs at the start of a generation always made sense when games could break even with a million units. Now I think it makes much less sense.


No, because the idea is to establish a new IP first, then the real sales come in the long run ;)
 

StuBurns

Banned
No, because the idea is to establish a new IP first, then the real sales come in the long run ;)
And why can't they do that now?

Are you saying a new IP would sell worse today, than a year into next-gen? Because I really don't see the evidence to support that. Everyone is saying it as if it's fact, but no one seems to have any data that shows any trends indicating that is the case.
 

marrec

Banned
Exactly my point. Waiting for next-gen to launch an IP means waiting years into next-gen, because no one is going to be able to realistically guarantee three to four million units in year one on a new IP.

You can make games cheaper, but then they'll be below par with the competition, you can launch them on the current consoles too, but then you're still launching an new IP late in a generation anyway, or you can wait until the new install bases mature to the point they can hold multiple multi-million sales per quarter.

Launching new IPs at the start of a generation always made sense when games could break even with a million units. Now I think it makes much less sense.

You may have a point in that production values are ever increasing and if you release a game that only has a 10 million dollar budget then it is very likely going to be subpar in some way compared to 50 million dollar games or the marketing is going to be nonexistent. The lessons learned in 2005 may not be applicable to 2013 or 2014 because the way companies make games now is completely different.

The new IP will probably not release until a year into the next gen because the install base will not be large enough to get a ROI in a timely fashion (read: Before prices bottom out.)

In some ways, the WiiU is best positioned to have a great selling new IP at launch because it probably will have a sub $300 price tag, the development costs will be cheaper than PSXB720, and it will be the only new console on the market for a some time.

Oh and you could release it for next gen and current gen at the same time, but I don't think that worked out so well for Gun. :(
 

Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
Wouldn't it make sense to get people hooked on an IP while the user base is at it's peak? I don't have any numbers but I'm sure Gears 3 sold more than the original simply due to more people owning a 360 in 2011 than in 2006. Plus there is nothing more exciting than seeing a familiar franchise boosted graphically.

No.

When a new console comes out people flock to buy it not even knowing what games it has.
During this frenzy any game that has decent boxart and "next gen" graphics is likely to succeed.

Early in a cycle a few million units is probably enough to be considered a success, from there as more people buy the console your game which all the launch user bought is now seen as the IT game to have.

Heck till Chromehounds i felt buyers remorse with my Xbox 360, i was almost willing to buy anything just to see these so called next gen graphics....and i know a lot of people who bought a whole lot of random games simply because they needed their console to be used.
 

BGBW

Maturity, bitches.
If you consider the GBC to truly be next gen compared to the GameBoy Pokémon could be seen as the ultimate new IP launched well and truly at the end of a cycle seeing as the next generation was already out at that point.

Than again EA thought a concept like My Garden was worth pursuing which obviously wouldn't survive the end of a generation (didn't even survive the start of a new one) so it's no surprise they want to do a Red Steel and ride on the tailcoats of a new generation launch.

The key here is to budget well. I'm sure a small budget game could attract a niche market who wants something new at the end of a generation.
 

sajj316

Member
Are not following the thread or is it me missing something.

Minecraft - Doesnt give a fuck!
LBP - Not at the end of a cycle
Uncharted - Not at the end of a cycle
Guitar Hero - remarkable game
Gears of War - At the start of a cycle
Bioshock - At the start of a cycle

I think the poster misunderstood my question. I should have clarified, "at the end of a generational cycle" but I thought that was the whole point of the thread.

So, there isn't good evidence to support that new IP can launch "late in the game" and sell spectacularly well. It is what it is. God of War was the exception, not the rule.

I do hope that The Last of Us and Beyond: Two Souls will sell well to be additional exceptions.
 
And why can't they do that now?

Are you saying a new IP would sell worse today, than a year into next-gen? Because I really don't see the evidence to support that. Everyone is saying it as if it's fact, but no one seems to have any data that shows any trends indicating that is the case.


Because it's a lot harder when you're competing against hundreds of other already established franchises. An Xbox 360 owner is more likely to pick up the next Call of Duty game instead of a new relatively unknown game, likewise a PS3 owner is likely to pick up a new Uncharted game instead of some new relatively unknown game.

Now you have Xbox 720 and PS4 with a slim library to choose from at launch and users hungry to try anything will more than likely purchase a relatively unknown game that may turn out to be amazing and eventually become a franchise but would've probably been overlooked while floating in the sea of Call of Duty's, Uncharted, Assassin Creeds's, etc.
 

marrec

Banned
No.

When a new console comes out people flock to buy it not even knowing what games it has.
During this frenzy any game that has decent boxart and "next gen" graphics is likely to succeed.

Early in a cycle a few million units is probably enough to be considered a success, from there as more people buy the console your game which all the launch user bought is now seen as the IT game to have.

Heck till Chromehounds i felt buyers remorse with my Xbox 360, i was almost willing to buy anything just to see these so called next gen graphics....and i know a lot of people who bought a whole lot of random games simply because they needed their console to be used.

The problem is that development costs have skyrocketed since the release of the 360 so it's impossible to compare sales then to sales now.

Unless the buying frenzy that will come with the XBox720 has increased proportionally to the development cost of games...
 
Believe it or not, game companies are the last to figure out what is going on. 5 years ago, the game market seemed wide open. Games big and small sold. 2 years ago, only AAA games were selling in big numbers and the large companies who could afford that were saying they hoped this generation goes on for another 5 to 10 years.
At this point, they are hoping their new ips will sell. Most new IPs were schedule to come out this generation, but they got pushed back because the sales numbers for anything not safe were really low. Its very possible that the day of the $100 million game/marketing is over.
Also from a business sense, launching new ips with a system launch is risky. The systems will not have the install base.
 

StuBurns

Banned
Because it's a lot harder when you're competing against hundreds of other already established franchises. An Xbox 360 owner is more likely to pick up the next Call of Duty game instead of a new relatively unknown game, likewise a PS3 owner is likely to pick up Uncharted 3 instead of some new relatively unknown game.

Now you have Xbox 720 and PS4 with not much software at launch and users hungry to try anything will more than likely purchase a relatively unknown franchise that turned out to be amazing and wouldve probably been overlooked while floating in the sea of Call of Duty's, Uncharted, Assassin Creeds's, etc.
I totally disagree. Sony and MS will both have their big IPs there very early, and of course we'll see CoDs and ACs from the get go. It will be exactly the same as now.
 

heyf00L

Member
It's not that you can't release new IP at the end of the console life-cycle. It's just that it does seem better to do it at the beginning. If it's a decent game with something new to show, people want to see it. Would Gears of War, Bioshock, and Assissin's Creed have become ubiquitous with the current generation had they not been near launch?
 
Pretty much. I'm sure Sony doesn't expect their best studio to put out games that barely break even, these kinds of games usually need 3-4 million at least after you include the marketing budget with the overall budget.

Then again it's Sony so there probably is no marketing budget!

Remember that Red Dead Redemption needed to sell 4 million copies to break even? That game had a 100+ million dollar production budget. They sold 10 million by the way, but that's another story.

The Uncharted games have a budget of around 20 million. They are very profitable games, considering they sell around 5 million (excluding digital). If The Last of Us has a similar budget it would be very profitable with 3-4 million.

Which it will probably get. I've seen the behind closed doors demo at Gamescom and this game look phenomenal. To see the E3 press conference demo being played in a completely different manner was something. If the game lives up to its promise it will be carried by great reviews, excellent word of mouth and Naughty Dog's pedigree. The installed user base of the PS3 doesn't hurt either.

No way is it gonna bomb.
 
Any solid numbers to back that up?

I know it´s not selling at all in my 3 local stores which is usually a pretty good indicator for me.

We know from GfK figures that the game had an excellent opening in the UK (outsold Mario) and great legs in the weeks after. Seems to be selling well on Steam as well.
 

Coolwhip

Banned
I don't get the reasoning though. Why wait with releasing something when you have an 80 million installed base, compared to a 1 million installed base. I have a feeling the techheads still have too big of a say in the decisionmaking process in the videogame industry. (it will sell moar becuz of better graphics!!!!!)

It's not like you can't continue the series on the new platforms?
 
It's just common sense really. Nintendo's pricing strategy has never been to sell at a loss and the base SKU hardware will be $249. WiiU will have DX10 feature set and more RAM, but once the uPad is taken into consideration, not much budget is left for powerful hardware.

Common sense or what you are hoping for. lol
 

TwoDurans

"Never said I wasn't a hypocrite."
This doesn't make any sense. Isn't EA releasing a new IP with Insomniac Games soon?
 
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