A general rule doesn't mean that there aren't exceptions to that rule.
Also, which game are you talking about?
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EA: now is a bad time for new IP, best wait for "spectacular" next gen consoles
- Thread starter onQ123
- Start date
A general rule doesn't mean that there aren't exceptions to that rule.
Also, which game are you talking about?
EA partners. Overstrike is a big question mark and I think Insomniac will find their true worth to the overall industry with that game. Hard to beat Borderlands 2 though (same genre).
TwoDurans
"Never said I wasn't a hypocrite."
Fuse.
Black_Stride
do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
Im pretty sure 1st party titles have a much easier job becoming exceptions than 3rd party, so dont worry too much about The Last of Us.
Beyond Two Souls wont get a sequel anyway so that doesnt matter.
David Cage probably wants to show off something else for the PS4 next gen.
If i could give you a hug through the screen i would.
Have a heart instead ❤!
New IPs have a much easier time early because established brands dont have an Oligopoly yet.
Look at Prey an otherwise unknown dev releases a game and essentially gets free marketing because its one of like 3 shooters you can get on Xbox 360, if you went to a shop looking for a 360 shooter Prey always stared you in the face.
Note Prey was considered a success but by todays standards people would have said it bombed....early in a cycle a few million is gold.
Only time will tell.
But i think the frenzy will be just as crazy.
Back then it was HD 720p graphics.
These new consoles are almost guaranteed to be pushing 1080p....so now its hey you know that 1080p TV of yours...its time you finally pushed it to the limit, welcome Full HD graphics!!
Those Full HD tags from yesteryear are making a comeback YEAHHH!! but i digress.
Consider this, next gen consoles launch you buy one because you are an early adopter.
But none of the IPs you know and love have nextgen version yet....what do you do?
You buy whatever is on the shelf that looks good....if you and the devs are lucky, the game is good.
I think a good way to say it is consumers are more adventurous towards the beginning of a cycle than towards the end.
well thats certainly a polite way of saying it. Or you could just say they have little choice and will buy almost anything. and if its good they'll come back for more.
I'm assuming they consider a cross generation title to be "next-gen" at the same time.
We have almost zero information on Fuse comparatively and certainly no release date yet. Again though, there are exceptions to the rules and even if one dude at EA says 'It's generally a bad idea to release new IP at the end of a 7 year console cycle' that does not preclude a partner from continuing with an established plan.
Yes but will it sell 80 to 1 more? (if you assume a console has 80 million sold now and 1 million at the start) I highly doubt it.
TwoDurans
"Never said I wasn't a hypocrite."
I disagree. It depends on where they're at in the dev cycle. The PS360 still has about another year or so in it's lifecycle and we'll see new games comes out all the way up until the end. Hell they're still making PS2 games...
Phonomezer
Banned
You mean, they're still porting established sports franchises to PS2.
LittleJohnny
Banned
That "ect." was meant to be VERY long, we're talking about hundreds of other games to choose from as opposed to a limited list of launch games, and regardless if there are some established franchises, they will be starved for the next "Next-Gen" title.
That is the answer buddy, you can continue to not see it but it's just that simple, less competition in a starved for next gen market means your title is much more likely to get impulse bought instead of... hmmm.... I have these 10 other RPG options, let me check Metacritic and see which one to get...
I wonder how well Nier would have sold if it had released in 2006-7...
Black_Stride
do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
The same as now?
Maybe you underestimate how diluted the market is, go to any gameshop and look at how many different games are up there, look at all the genres.
You are saying within the first year we will have a level of dilution equal to now?
Thats preposterous.
Note, that just because a game is months old doesnt mean its still not a viable option for consumers, if you released a shooter in July, you were still competing with CoD from last November at the store.
If Next Gen CoD only comes out November 2014, and next gen consoles come out November 2013...as a new shooter IP or whatever you essentially have a year of competition free shelf space.
New IPs wont have any established brands to fight againsts, and if you are trying something adventurous there is a greater chance of you getting noticed when your game takes up 1 out of 12 rows as opposed to one out of 48 spots.
Im hoping Sony and MSs first party titles for the first 48 months will actually all be brand new....then ill be ready for the next Halo and God Of War.
I decided to cut out the bullshit.
Yeah, of course.
Because those platforms also have established IPs that people are expecting and playing that will make those companies far more money then any new IP could dream of. Now is the best time to be baking a new IP.
Imagine this:
You release a new and innovative RPG now and it sits next to every other Green and White box on the shelf with the same Anime styled cover as every other RPG release in the last 5 years OR you can release it in 2013-14 and it'll have a fancy new RED and white cover and sit next to nothing that is even remotely comparable in the market.
Black_Stride
do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
1 in 1000 chance of your game being noticed, and it can potentially sell 5 million units
1 in 50 chance of you game being noticed, and it can potentially sell 2 million units
One of those is riskier than the other.
MrCookiepants
Member
So anything less than 4 million is a bomb. I guess every Deus Ex game is a bomb then.
MrCookiepants
Member
God of War sold 4.6 million copies...
http://www.siliconera.com/2012/06/17/god-war-series-worldwide-sales-show-god-war-iii-at-the-top/
Black_Stride
do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
Counting PSN downloads and rereleases.
OG PS2 release was much much less or am i missremebering
MrCookiepants
Member
:/ if you followed the link you'd see GoW Collection listed with 2.4 million sold. Can the games be downloaded separately on PSN? If so, the number would be so small as to be irrelevant.
I seriously doubt that. The PSN downloads of the individual games can't be substantial.
Black_Stride
do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
Ahh my mistake....shit 4 million, ok thats impressive for a new IP.
Making an educated guess for the 3 new EA IP's:
1. Fighter of Wars
2. Modern War Soldiers
3. Company of Battle Fighters
Looking forward to it.
On a more serious note:
does NPD include digital sales, like Steam?
Gow collection-I sold nearly 2.5 million
http://www.siliconera.com/2012/06/17/god-war-series-worldwide-sales-show-god-war-iii-at-the-top/
Fox Mulder
Member
They're not as expensive to make.
Then again DX1 did bomb pretty horribly. It's how we ended up with the game that shall not be named.
Polishin8r
Member
more consoles= more sales come on Ea do your maths
How do you know that? I wouldn't be surprised if DE:HR cost more than Uncharted.
chertipros
Member
I agree with him for the most part. Of course there are always exceptions but it's normally really risky to start a new ip this late in a console generation
Stop it, just stop. Your logic has no place for this thread. =p
Been agreeing with everything you've been posting. =)
Fox Mulder
Member
or more people waiting for bargain bin/used games. People that buy into a console early will buy the games that are out. I have a huge backlog on the 360 and haven't bought a new release at $60 since Skyrim.
Well and people seem to be ignoring the PSN/XBLA market when talking about new IPs. Sure we're not getting any $60 disk based innovation but in the indie/DD market we get something fresh and new almost weekly.
EA *IS* right in this regard. They are not the only publisher to believe this as well.
Consumers are more willing to buy a new IP with a new console rather than late in a console's life cycle.
Not to mention that it is a lot easier to develop a brand image with a new IP in the beginning of a console's life cycle than at the end of it.
A lot of the examples some of you said, last of us, god of war etc are the exceptions, not the norm. They are also owned IP's by 1st party publishers, ie Sony, Nintendo.
These guys look at the numbers and stats, releasing a new IP in the late console cycle is pretty risky. A lot of new IP's also have to compete with the already established games. It DOES however have some advantages, mainly, larger install base, some gamers looking for something new etc.
Consumers are more willing to buy a new IP with a new console rather than late in a console's life cycle.
Not to mention that it is a lot easier to develop a brand image with a new IP in the beginning of a console's life cycle than at the end of it.
A lot of the examples some of you said, last of us, god of war etc are the exceptions, not the norm. They are also owned IP's by 1st party publishers, ie Sony, Nintendo.
These guys look at the numbers and stats, releasing a new IP in the late console cycle is pretty risky. A lot of new IP's also have to compete with the already established games. It DOES however have some advantages, mainly, larger install base, some gamers looking for something new etc.
Woo-Fu
Banned
I don't know why people think EA is wrong about this when they have generations worth of data to back up their point. I'm sure they have average ROI charts for new IP by year, and I'm sure those charts show better returns early on in a console life cycle.
Kind of get a chuckle out of people thinking companies this size are run by some guy throwing darts at a dartboard.
Kind of get a chuckle out of people thinking companies this size are run by some guy throwing darts at a dartboard.
But those aren't real games.
(haha; so silly how people still stereotype games based on distribution... will more than likely get better though next gen as more games become DD)
They can only have data that exists, if they don't launch new IPs at the end of the generation, they can't know how they perform.
And I wouldn't trust 'generations' of data, buying trends are different now than ten years ago I would imagine.
I can't figure out if this reasoning is correct or not. There are so many variables that come into play that is would be very easy to make the numbers say whatever you want. It is easy to point at games released at the end of the cycle that under-performed, but how can you be sure they would have sold better earlier in the cycle?
Here's a pair of titles that makes me question whether timing in the cycle really matters for initial success:
ICO - 2001
Shadow of the Colossus - 2006
There are also these later cycle games to consider:
Rainbow Six - 1998 (late N64)
Medal of Honor - 1999 (late PS1)
Tony Hawk 1 - 1999 (late PS1)
Call of Duty Finest Hour - 2004 (late PS2)
Here's a pair of titles that makes me question whether timing in the cycle really matters for initial success:
ICO - 2001
Shadow of the Colossus - 2006
There are also these later cycle games to consider:
Rainbow Six - 1998 (late N64)
Medal of Honor - 1999 (late PS1)
Tony Hawk 1 - 1999 (late PS1)
Call of Duty Finest Hour - 2004 (late PS2)
2012: Bigger game budgets, fewer consoles sold.
Much more of a risk in comparison to previous gens.
BF3 sold how much ? 12 million isnt it ?
Uncharted Series is 17
and im Pretty UC3 will be atleast 5 to 6 which is good for a exclusive franchise
Black_Stride
do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
Its not about being sure, its about being less risky.
There is no way to be sure a game will sell well early or late.
EA is simply saying it is less risky to start an IP at the start of a new generation than at the end of a generation.
Waiting a few month to not only release but also polish a new IP is much less risky than hoping your IP will somehow standout against the thousands of games that are already out
Rainbow Six - Was successful on PS which was still going strong so that doesnt count
Medal of Honor - Was an exceptional game
Tony Hawk Pro Skater - There was nothing else like it, exceptional
Call of Duty - Not a new IP
Competition way back when wasnt quite a ruthless as it is today.
Forsaken82
Member
Before you say anything like this why don't you wait till the game is officially released. For all you know, It will get pushed back to a PS4 launch title.