Thread stuck in
'no it will be a success'
'nuh uh, it will be a failure' mode of argumentation.
There's literally no room to move on the discussion
But I really think It's going to sell out initially, but a lot of it depends on software, and RARE isn't what they used to be.
Also, lot of the analysis on the success of the Wii and in turn trying to parlay it into a reason why Natal will enjoy similar successes downplays the whole package, and simplifies the argumentation down to patronizing simplistic dichotomies of casuals vs. hardcore, or nintendo 'got lucky' etc.
Without the software, the right hardware and input method, and pricing, a lot of things would be different today.
And of course, I throw in my aforementioned reservations about MS and Sony and their Wiitoo attemps and how it will mesh with their 3D initiatives. It seems scatterbrained.