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[A Black Falcon]

Actually, I think his point was that all of "us" were "hoping" that the PS3 would crash and burn and that all of its titles would appear on the Wii. Granted, I think his hope is as you just stated...

Well yes, that is my hope too, but I was trying to state their hope there.

HEY GUYS POKEMON IS A FAD

Yup, an eight-year-old fad, destined to lose all of its popularity anytime now... or maybe not.

Really, with all the success the DS is having how can anyone even say "Touchscreen gaming is a fad" (or a gimmick) anymore? When you've hit this level of success, it's obviously more than just a passing thing, destined to soon be replaced by "real" games/controls again.

 

[ethelred]

If all the software we were talking about was aimed at the casual/non-gamer audience, then you'd have a point. But I'm having examples thrown at me like NSMB and DQ, which aren't going to appeal to the middle-aged salaryman who heard about how this 'Brain Training' thing will sharpen your mind on TV or the young woman who wanted a DS and Nintendogs because she can't keep a real dog in her apartment - in other words, the 'expanded audience' that Nintendo's been reaching out to.

I'm not sure what you're looking for here.

Non-traditional software is selling by the bucketloads. Traditional software, too, is selling by the bucketloads. Gamers are buying stuff, casual gamers are buying stuff, they're all buying stuff. So what's your point?

My sarcasm is quite called for, by the way, when you attempt to explain away a 50%+ increase in sales for DQM based off the brand name -- the brand was the same on the GBA as it is on the DS. Plenty of other games have seen a similar turnaround. Someone's buying this stuff. You can't keep claiming "It's the same folks that bought stuff on the GBA" when these games are selling double.

And my point was that I don't think the DS' success can be attributed solely (or even primarily) to the stylus, or that stylus games for casuals are the primary source of revenue for publishers (particularly 3rd parties) on the platform right now. Those things may account for a good chunk of hardware sales, but I don't think the people buying the hardware for those reasons are the same ones buying most of the software.

And yet... the software (whether brain training, English training, kanji training, or recipe books) is selling, despite the fact that you seem to think it isn't. So there we have it. You can either accept the reality of the cold, hard numbers, or deny 'em. Your call.

The people who are bullish on the Wii keep touting it as a platform designed to appeal to casual- and non-gamers, much like the DS supposedly is, and they seem to be predicting its long-term success for the same reason.

Damn, man. I've posted this several times now, but you don't really seem to be reading it. I guess I'll try just this one final time.

I'm not overestimating the long-term appeal of motion-sensing control to the casual gamer. I am stating the importance of games to long-term success. It's simple, really: initial success --> userbase --> games --> greater userbase --> more games.

I will say that your point (that the system's success is driven strictly by the novelty factor) may be true to a limited extent in North America and Europe, but it is flatly untrue in Japan, where the consumers have demonstrated quite clearly that they're as intensely interested in it as a gaming system as they were in the DS. And success in Japan will, simply enough, lead to games (and lots of them) by some of the most popular and prestigious third party developers in the world. And that support (along with, yes, the first party lineup) will ensure continued success. THAT is the lesson to take away from the DS... and the PS2, and the PSX. Whatever system has the userbase gets the games.

Success breeds more success. The Wii is selling hardware, and the Wii is selling software. That's going to lead to more software, which is going to lead to more hardware sales and more software sales. It's the most simplistic cycle imaginable, and it's the one most consistently borne out by historical precedent.

Whether the sales come from non-gamers, casual gamers, hardcore traditional gamers, or aliens is irrelevant. The sales are there. The sales are continuing, and to date show no evidence of slowing. While we have ample historical evidence to suggest that such entrenchment will lead to continual support and continual growth in hardware/software sales, I see no historical example of a platform that acquired a huge lead in hardware/software sales and then just plummeted out of consumer demand.

And I think it's funny that people see a Christmas fad and automatically assume that this translates to assured long-term consumer interest, when I know they've seen media-driven holiday sales of items before and really ought to know better.

The Wii is tracking only the slightest, tiniest bit behind the PS2 in hardware sales in Japan.

You can spin that all you like, and justify your dismissal by claiming it's a Christmas fad (kinda like the DS's easter success, I suppose), but there seems little rational evidence for this claim.

 

[Pud]

You're right, of course. They're all casuals and non-gamers. None of them could have been console gamers, former console gamers, or anything else. Every last one of those sales is directly attributable to people who had no interest in gaming until they saw Nintendogs or Brain Training, and their desire to improve their minds, own a virtual pet, or the 'cool' factor of playing a game with a stylus suddenly inspired them to run out and buy DraQue, NSMB, or any other high-selling game you care to name. Because, you know, there's massive overlap between the audience for traditional games and games for casuals/nongamers.

I am what you'd consider a hardcore gamer. I own too many DS titles to name, including the likes of Resident Evil, Castlevania, Metroid, FF3, EBA, NSMB, etc etc... I absolutely LOVED Brain Training... I own Tetris, Animal Crossing, and Nintendogs, too, and Clubhouse games remains my most played DS title to date. My girlfriend went from being the Nintendogs/Tetris/Brain/Clubhouse games to NSMB/EBA/Hotel Dusk and Animal Crossing (currently her most played game behind Clubhouse). Oh and in case you missed it earlier, she went from Wii Sports to ZELDA... yes, ZELDA (another definitive hardcore game of 2K6). Sure that's 2 anecdotal cases, but that's not uncommon if sales charts are to be believed. Seriously, inject some common sense into your arguments, it may serve you well. The DS isn't selling on the back of the GBA, nor does it have tons of million-selling hardcore AND casual titles because both audiences buy different styles of game.

What some people on this forum continually forget to consider is that we, the hardcore, are the VAST minority of gamers, and we make up a tiny TINY population of ANY popular paltform... be it the PS2, DS, or even the PC. With 120m PS2's out there, how many copies did Okami (the hardcore gamers' GOTY 2006 according to IGN) sell? Seriously... the INCREDIBLY MAJORITY of console/handheld purchasers past a certain point of popularity are what we'd consider 'casual' by any standard, because the hardcore make up a tiny percentage of all hardware/software sales on these said platforms.

 

[Brofist]

Is it so hard to believe? I just said it above: Nintendo's using the same woman to advertise Brain Age, DS country travel software and New Super Mario Bros.

She's a popular face that does many commercials for a wide array of products. I wouldn't look so far into it beyond that.

 

[Lapsed]

How about a sample from the Blue Ocean Strategy? Perhaps this will be more interesting:

To maximize the size of their blue oceans, companies need to take a reverse course. Instead of concentrating on customers, they need to look to noncustomers. And instead of focusing on customer differences, they need to build on powerful commonalities in what buyers value. That allows companies to reach beyond existing demand to unlocka new mass of customers that did not exist before.

Think of Callaway Golf. It aggregated new demand for its offerings by looking to noncustomers. While the U.S. golf industry fought to win a greater share of existing customers, Callaway created a blue ocean of new demand by asking why sports enthusiasts and people in the country club set had NOT taken up golf as a sport. By looking to why people shied away from golf, it found one key commonality uniting the mass of noncustomers: Hitting the golf ball was perceived as too difficult. The small size of the golf club head demanded enormous hand-eye coordination, took time to master, and required concentration. As a result, fun was sapped for novices, and it took too long to get good at the sport.

This understanding gave Callaway insight into how to aggregate new demand for its offering. The answer was Big Bertha, a golf club with a large head that made it far easier to hit the golf ball. Big Bertha not only converted noncustomers of the industry into customers, but it also pleased existing golf customers, making it a runaway bestseller across the board. With the exception of pros, it turned out that the mass of existing customers also had been frustrated with the difficulty of advancing their game by mastering the skills need to hit the ball consistently. The club's large head also lessened this difficulty.

Interestingly, however, existing customers, unlike noncustomers, had implicitly accepted the difficulty of the game. Although the mass of existing customers didn't like it, they had taken for granted that that was the way the game was played. Instead of registering their dissatisfaction with golf club makers, they themselves accepted the responsibility to improve. By looking to noncustomers and focusing on their key commonalities- not differences- Callaway saw how to aggregate new demand and offer the mass of customers and noncustomers a leap in value.

The bolded should show why appealing to non-gamers improves games for everyone. Many of you hardcore gamers don't register your frustrations with current game makers. You just accept that is how games are and/or you blame yourself. But by focusing on building value to non-gamers, these frustrations get solved for current gamers. There is certainly a parallel between Big Bertha's "run away success" and Wii's constant sell-outs.

 

[cvxfreak]

She's a popular face that does many commercials for a wide array of products. I wouldn't look so far into it beyond that.

She is popular, but it does mean something. Nanako's admitted that she's a gamer from way back (I *ahem* saw a video of her from 1992 modeling in a swimsuit in a swimming pool and she mentioned she played Yoshi Cookie on the GameBoy). Using her to advertise Brain Age, New Super Mario Brothers and have her star in a Thailand commercial shows that Nintendo's making progress in bridging the gap between gamers and non-gamers. It makes tons of sense to have Nanako do NSMB and not something like Pokemon. Hell, I'm surprised she didn't do Tetris DS, although Utada Hikaru's got that covered apparently.

In the end it shows Nintendo's intentions, and the connection isn't unreasonable.

 

[PkunkFury]

How about a sample from the Blue Ocean Strategy? Perhaps this will be more interesting:



The bolded should show why appealing to non-gamers improves games for everyone. Many of you hardcore gamers don't register your frustrations with current game makers. You just accept that is how games are and/or you blame yourself. But by focusing on building value to non-gamers, these frustrations get solved for current gamers. There is certainly a parallel between Big Bertha's "run away success" and Wii's constant sell-outs.

:lol

Now that we have a high school marketing class going on in this thread, it's complete

 

[DDayton]

:lol

Now that we have a high school marketing class going on in this thread, it's complete

I'm not sure it is... has Drinky Crow appeared yet?

 

[justchris]

Would you like me to argue individually with every single poster here? Yes, I've read the posts in between, but 'x number of platinum games, blah blah blah' still doesn't tell me who's buying them, and I have a hard time believing that non-gamers who supposedly bought the system for one of these casual-oriented titles are the same ones driving more traditional software sales across the board. If they were interested in those kinds of games to begin with, then they would have jumped aboard during the GBA generation, don't you think? And I'm not seeing the crossover appeal that those titles might have.

Okay, wait, no, no, I see what the problem is. You've misinterpreted what the term casual gamer means.

A gamer is a casual gamer not because of the types of games they play, but because of how they play games. It matters not how epic a game is, as long as it is easy to learn, and can be played in small chunks of time, rather than requiring hours of sitting to get anywhere. You know, much like every Super Mario game ever, GTA3, every racing game, every sports game and so on and so forth.

But let me paint a picture for you. Let's say that a person, let's make them a non-gamer, who has never played games before, finally breaks down and shells out the money for a DSLite & Brain Training.

Now they play this game every day, and really enjoy it. Then, after, let's say 6 months, they decide that they've done everything the game has to offer, and they get bored with it. Which of the following two scenarios do you think is most likely:

A) The person gets rid of the DSL & cart, basically tossing out $150 spent to purchase them.

B) The person invests another $30 to pick up a different game their friend/neighbor/brother/cousin/nephew/co-worker talked about.

Seriously, think about it for a second, about the people you know who don't play games. If they picked up a DS, why did they pick it up in the first place? Word of mouth most likely, because they heard about a game that seemed interesting. If they enjoy that game, are they going to subsequently never play another game again once they get bored with it, or are they going to look into other games they hear about through word of mouth?

Getting the hardware into the customer's hand is the first and most important step. Once that happens, 99% of people are going to end up buying another game at some point down the line. Going from a person buying 0 games per year, to even 1 game per year is an infinte increase in games sold. Each game that person buys and enjoys increases their chances of buying 1 more game at some point in the future (even if it's not until the next year).

What you're saying would be like someone going out, buying a DVD player, buying one movie they really liked and then never buying another DVD again as long as they live. I'm not saying that doesn't happen, but once a person makes the initial outlay for the hardware, the chances of them dismissing all but one piece of software for it from that point down are minimal.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I'll ask this once: What the hell does any of that have to do with the stylus/Brain Training/Nintendogs? You tell me how sales of hardware to casuals and nongamers - a group that is defined by their lack of interest in traditional games - is driving sales of software like NSMB and DQ:MJ.

It's a lot easier to sell someone a popular game once you've convinced them to buy the system and play something. My mom played Phoenix Wright last year. Would she have cared to a few years ago? Not really, but once she got a DS she eventually wanted something to play other than Zoo Keeper.

If all the software we were talking about was aimed at the casual/non-gamer audience, then you'd have a point. But I'm having examples thrown at me like NSMB and DQ, which aren't going to appeal to the middle-aged salaryman who heard about how this 'Brain Training' thing will sharpen your mind on TV or the young woman who wanted a DS and Nintendogs because she can't keep a real dog in her apartment - in other words, the 'expanded audience' that Nintendo's been reaching out to.

NSMB and DQ:MJ could be indicative of those "lapsed" gamers, too. Perhaps that middle-aged salaryman who went for Brain Training used to be a young man who played Super Mario Bros. twenty years ago.

You're right, of course. They're all casuals and non-gamers. None of them could have been console gamers, former console gamers, or anything else. Every last one of those sales is directly attributable to people who had no interest in gaming until they saw Nintendogs or Brain Training, and their desire to improve their minds, own a virtual pet, or the 'cool' factor of playing a game with a stylus suddenly inspired them to run out and buy DraQue, NSMB, or any other high-selling game you care to name. Because, you know, there's massive overlap between the audience for traditional games and games for casuals/nongamers.

Heh. Maybe I skimmed and missed too much of this discussion. I definitely wouldn't say the stylus and stylus-heavy games are the only reason for the DS's success. Some people are buying a GBA successor. Some people are buying a stylus system. But both of those groups are actually buying a DS, so their combination makes for larger numbers than either could do alone, which has led to more development focus on the platform, which has led to even larger numbers. Wii seems to be doing well for the same reason. Some people are buying a GameCube successor. Some people are buying a waggle system. But both of those groups are actually buying a Wii, so their combination makes for larger numbers than either could do alone. As Reggie said, they're an "and" company, not wanting to limit their market to one type of gamer.

 

[wazoo]

What some people on this forum continually forget to consider is that we, the hardcore, are the VAST minority of gamers, and we make up a tiny TINY population of ANY popular paltform... be it the PS2, DS, or even the PC. With 120m PS2's out there, how many copies did Okami (the hardcore gamers' GOTY 2006 according to IGN) sell? Seriously... the INCREDIBLY MAJORITY of console/handheld purchasers past a certain point of popularity are what we'd consider 'casual' by any standard, because the hardcore make up a tiny percentage of all hardware/software sales on these said platforms.

That is the only truth.

 

[PantherLotus]

I would like every single person that is arguing in this thread to take a look at the first two years of sales of each major generation (NES vs MasterSystem, SNES vs GEN, N64 vs PS1, GC vs PS2 vs XBox), then compare the first 5 months that each were out with the final outcome.

And report back promptly.

 

[cvxfreak]

I would like every single person that is arguing in this thread to take a look at the first two years of sales of each major generation (NES vs MasterSystem, SNES vs GEN, N64 vs PS1, GC vs PS2 vs XBox), then compare the first 5 months that each were out with the final outcome.

And report back promptly.

...in Japan? The first two year winner = winner in the last five months.

In the US, the N64 and Genesis put up really good fights the first two years (IIRC for N64) and the NES and PS2 destroyed the competition (immediately for PS2, a little longer for NES).

 

[PantherLotus]

...in Japan? The first two year winner = winner in the last five months.

In the US, the N64 and Genesis put up really good fights the first two years (IIRC for N64) and the NES and PS2 destroyed the competition (immediately for PS2, a little longer for NES).

So what you're saying is that whoever wins the first two years wins the whole thing?

(the whole thing = lifetime sales)

 

[justchris]

To expand upon my previous point (and go back to something lapsed said), the biggest hurdle to selling a game is getting the hardware into a customer's hands.

Non-gamers are non-gamers not because the games that are out did not appeal to them. They are non-gamers because for one reason or another, they could not get into gaming. Whether it was the controls, the graphics, the gameplay or the prominent themes that drove them away isn't really the issue.

For a large percentage of the population, they don't get into games because they don't really see it as a valid pasttime. They have no respect for our hobby, and so when they're presented with things to do, playing a video game is by default near the bottom of the list.

It only takes one game, one single game, to overcome that reluctance. Once a person picks up a Wii with Wii Sports, there are only two outcomes. Either they enjoy playing it, or they dislike playing it.

If they dislike playing it, game over, end of story. They don't play games, and move on with their lives.

If they do enjoy the game, at some point, they're going to want to play something else. At this point, what type of game they play next does not matter. Remember, this person is a non-gamer, they don't play games. They don't know what genres they enjoy and what genres they dislike, all they know is the one game they played and had fun with.

What this means is, a person who has played Wii Sports (no other factors considered) has a perfectly equal chance of picking up Wario Ware or Legend of Zelda. At this point, they have nothing to base a decision on, so to them, one is just is good as the other, whether it is targeted at hardcore or casual gamers. The only game that has a greater chance of being picked up would be a sequel or clone of Wii Sports. Barring that option, that person will choose a game based on external factors, not factors having to do with the game itself.

In general, the most relevant external factors are word of mouth. If the only game you have ever played in your life is Wii Sports, the first thing you're going to do when looking for a second game is ask someone who knows more about games than you do. Preferably someone you know well, and who you presume has the same tastes as you. If they recommend you pick up Legend of Zelda, then you will buy Legend of Zelda, because they're the only authoritative source you have.

At that point, the choices branch again. Either you enjoy Zelda, or you dislike it.

If you enjoy it, then you will once again seek new games, but now you have two criteria. Games that are like Wii Sports, and games that are like Zelda. If there are no sequels/clones, then once again, you will go to the authoritative source who first recommended Zelda, in the hopes they will offer you something else you will enjoy. In this scenario, Nintendo wins.

If you dislike Zelda, then the next result really depends on personality, and how much you disliked Zelda. The greater majority of people will go to the original friend and complain about how they didn't like Zelda. In roughly half of these cases, the friend will recommend an alternative game that is nothing like Zelda, let's say Call of Duty. Here the previous process repeats, and if you like that game, then you have 3 data points, you like games like Wii Sports and Call of Duty, and dislike games like Zelda, and you have a better chance of deciding in the future what games you will like, and generally will buy more games.

If that friend doesn't recommend another game to you, there are several ways that can go. Perhaps they will belittle you for not liking Zelda. In that case, you will most likely sell your Wii and not play games again, as your disdain for games and gamers will have proven out. Otherwise, maybe the friend will be mystified and not understand why you didn't like it. So you'll go back and play it again, to see if maybe you missed something, but chances are you didn't, it's just not your type of game. In this case, there is roughly a 10% chance you will see your Wii and give up gaming. Much more likely, you will seek an alternative authoritative opinion on games to play, until you get another suggestion, using the two data points of (Yes:Wii Sports) (No:Zelda).

In each instance, you will receive a game, and either like it or dislike it. For every game you dislike, the chances of giving up on gaming increase. For each game you like, the chances of giving up on gaming decrease drastically.

Whatever the case, once a person has the hardware, they become more inclined to consider software for it, even if they've never considered this kind of pasttime before. It takes several bad experiences with gaming for a person with no prior experience to choose to discard their hardware, with each good experience nullifying two or more bad experiences, and helping you develop an understanding of what games you do like, and what games you don't like.

It is unreasonable to assume that just because someone likes a casual game they will not like a hardcore game. Most hardcore gamers were first introduced to gaming via casual games, and enjoyed them so much that over time they gravitated to other types of games. Most hardcor gamers still play and enjoy casual games, often in between sessions of more hardcore games (I know I like to take the occasional break from FF to clear my head with something simple and not time consuming, so I can go back to a puzzle or boss fight with a fresh perspective). The entire point of targetting non-gamers is that they don't know whether or not they like video games, because they've never really played them before. Getting them to purchase the hardware and one game, and then enjoy that one game, is the first, and biggest hurdle. Once you get a person playing and enjoying one game, your chances of selling any other game to them increase. For each successive game they enjoy, the chances of them buying more games increases exponentially.

That's simple psychology. It's the same methodology drug pushers use. A person who enjoys a taste, is easier to sell to then someone who's never tried it before.

 

[cvxfreak]

So what you're saying is that whoever wins the first two years wins the whole thing?

(the whole thing = lifetime sales)

90% so, yeah.

We did have the period when PSP was considerably ahead of the DS in the US, Genesis ahead of SNES until sometime in 1994 (Japan made up for the difference and the some, though), and Saturn reportedly was neck-to-neck with PSone in Japan. But typically the winner then is the winner towards the end.

 

[PantherLotus]

90% so, yeah.

We did have the period when PSP was considerably ahead of the DS in the US, Genesis ahead of SNES until sometime in 1994 (Japan made up for the difference and the some, though), and Saturn reportedly was neck-to-neck with PSone in Japan. But typically the winner then is the winner towards the end.

Ok...now I'm confused. So you're really saying that whoever wins the first 5 months (or two years) has no bearing on the eventual outcome? Or that it's just not an indicator?

 

[cvxfreak]

Ok...now I'm confused. So you're really saying that whoever wins the first 5 months (or two years) has no bearing on the eventual outcome? Or that it's just not an indicator?

It was always the winner on the worldwide scale in the first two years that won it out by the end of the generation. On a local American scale, not necessarily. In Japan however, the winner LTD-wise stuck from the beginning.

 

[PantherLotus]

It was always the winner on the worldwide scale in the first two years that won it out by the end of the generation. On a local American scale, not necessarily. In Japan however, the winner LTD-wise stuck from the beginning.

Ok. Can you now describe how worldwide sales compares with Japan's sales? More clearly, is Japan a success indicator for a worldwide market?

 

[AniHawk]

Ok. Can you now describe how worldwide sales compares with Japan's sales? More clearly, is Japan a success indicator for a worldwide market?

In the past, it has been. Not saying it'll happen again, but it has been the case with FC/NES, SFC/SNES, PSX, PS2, and DS.

 

[PantherLotus]

In the past, it has been. Not saying it'll happen again, but it has been the case with FC/NES, SFC/SNES, PSX, PS2, and DS.

Soooo...

From what cvx has said:
1. Whoever wins Japan in the first year or two in Japan, wins the LTD.

From what Anihawk has said:
2. Whoever wins Japan, wins worldwide, at least historically.



Are these statements correct?

 

[Mar]

If all the software we were talking about was aimed at the casual/non-gamer audience, then you'd have a point. But I'm having examples thrown at me like NSMB and DQ, which aren't going to appeal to the middle-aged salaryman who heard about how this 'Brain Training' thing will sharpen your mind on TV or the young woman who wanted a DS and Nintendogs because she can't keep a real dog in her apartment

NSMB is exactly the right game targeted at those people. You (and many, many other people) have no idea that NSMB has a plethora of mini games designed for the touch screen. My wife LOVES NSMB, but she doesn't play the single player game.

I can tell you for certain that is what's driving NSMBs sales in Japan. The multiplayer touch screen mini games. The womens, they loves them.

 

[Tellaerin]

I'm not sure what you're looking for here.

Non-traditional software is selling by the bucketloads. Traditional software, too, is selling by the bucketloads. Gamers are buying stuff, casual gamers are buying stuff, they're all buying stuff. So what's your point?

Games for casual/non-gamers != 'traditional' games.

Different audiences, limited overlap.

Casual games are selling to this casual market, but that doesn't account for the sales of traditional games on the platform. If the audience Nintendo was supposedly reaching out to had been interested in those titles in the first place, then there would have been no reason to make a special effort to reach out to them in the first place. (Which underscores my contention that overlap is limited.) And that makes me feel disinclined to believe that most of them would suddenly develop an interest in other types of games based on Brain Training or Nintendogs. Write it off as circular reasoning if you like - I'm just telling you what I think.

My sarcasm is quite called for, by the way, when you attempt to explain away a 50%+ increase in sales for DQM based off the brand name -- the brand was the same on the GBA as it is on the DS.

And as I said before, it's easier to believe that the prospect of the first new 2D-gameplay Mario in ages, plus DQ/FF remakes/etc., may have attracted long-time console/'lapsed' gamers to the system and games than to believe that the bulk of these sales are being driven by people who had never been interested in gaming before. That's especially true after having heard so much about how people are supposedly 'intimidated' by conventional games/controllers/etc. Obviously you feel differently. Unfortunately, aggregate sales figures alone don't tell anyone exactly who bought what and (more importantly) why. That's what I'd be interested in knowing, and there's really no way to gauge that. (Unless you want to hire a market research firm to do some polling in Japan? I could start a PayPal account and we could all chip in... >.> )

Plenty of other games have seen a similar turnaround. Someone's buying this stuff. You can't keep claiming "It's the same folks that bought stuff on the GBA" when these games are selling double.

And you can't keep insisting that it's all driven by the same salarymen, OL's, and elderly folks who supposedly drove DS hardware numbers into the stratosphere by picking up the system for Brain Training, Nintendogs, etc., either. Or do traditional games just magically become less scary/intimidating/overcomplicated/boring for nongamers when they're on the DS? Maybe you could make an argument for that in the case of purely stylus-based games designed for casual play, but those aren't the titles I'm talking about here.

And yet... the software (whether brain training, English training, kanji training, or recipe books) is selling, despite the fact that you seem to think it isn't. So there we have it. You can either accept the reality of the cold, hard numbers, or deny 'em. Your call.

I never said they weren't selling. I said I don't think they're selling to the same people that are buying the 'traditional' games. And I don't think the success of those 'traditional' games should be attributed primarily to the people who bought a DS for the training/cookbook/casual titles.

I don't expect you to agree with me, but I know you're not stupid - please do us both a favor and stop pretending that you don't see what I'm saying here.

Damn, man. I've posted this several times now, but you don't really seem to be reading it. I guess I'll try just this one final time.

Success breeds more success. The Wii is selling hardware, and the Wii is selling software. That's going to lead to more software, which is going to lead to more hardware sales and more software sales. It's the most simplistic cycle imaginable, and it's the one most consistently borne out by historical precedent.

Whether the sales come from non-gamers, casual gamers, hardcore traditional gamers, or aliens is irrelevant. The sales are there. The sales are continuing, and to date show no evidence of slowing. While we have ample historical evidence to suggest that such entrenchment will lead to continual support and continual growth in hardware/software sales, I see no historical example of a platform that acquired a huge lead in hardware/software sales and then just plummeted out of consumer demand.

No, I've read it each time you've posted it. I just don't agree with it, and repeating it over and over isn't going to change that.

From the beginning, Nintendo's been touting the Wii as this system for the casuals and nongamers. It's designed to appeal to a segment of the market that finds conventional controls too complex, conventional games daunting, yadda yadda yadda. Its big draw is its motion-sensing controller, and the way it allows players to perform actions in the game by miming them. That's garnered quite a bit of attention from the media because it's novel - it's something different, and there's a 'gee whiz' aspect to it. People try it and go, 'oh, neat!' I think it would be safe to say that's been a major contributing factor in sales, wouldn't you?

The bottom line is that the novelty of waving around the controller to make things happen is going to wear off, and casual/non-gamer types are only going to buy so many gesture-based party games to play with their friends. And yet Nintendo seems fixated on that audience right now, and don't seem to show any signs of shifting focus. The core gamer audience - the one that's traditionally driven sales of console hardware and software - seems almost like an afterthought. You're assuming that this new market segment is going to behave the exact same way the core gamers have, and sustain hardware and software sales in the long term the same way core gamers do. That's unproven, and I think it's doubtful.

The Wii is tracking only the slightest, tiniest bit behind the PS2 in hardware sales in Japan.

You can spin that all you like, and justify your dismissal by claiming it's a Christmas fad (kinda like the DS's easter success, I suppose), but there seems little rational evidence for this claim.

'Little rational evidence' aside from knowing human nature and being old enough to have seen any number of fads come and go. *shrug* All I can say is, Nintendo and 3rd parties can't bank on the 'gee whiz' factor of motion control indefinitely, and that's the impression I've been getting from Nintendo and the press - that they ultimately see the Wii as a gesture minigame 'party-in-a-box', with a handful of traditional titles thrown in on the side to placate the 'core' gamers out there (whoever those losers are ). And if they don't start making more of an effort to expand beyond that, then no, I don't see them 'winning' this generation in the long run, regardless of what initial hardware numbers they're posting.

I've said my piece, I've listened to yours (and others'), and no one here feels any differently than they did before they started. (Which is pretty much par for the course, I think. ) So I suppose we shall see what we shall see, and I'll leave it at that.

 

[wazoo]

Really, with all the success the DS is having how can anyone even say "Touchscreen gaming is a fad" (or a gimmick) anymore? When you've hit this level of success, it's obviously more than just a passing thing, destined to soon be replaced by "real" games/controls again.

That is a terrible argument.

It would be like saying "considering Sony sold 220M consoles in the last decade, they can not be replaced", because Sony has achieved a level of succes, nobody has ever achieved in term of hardware sales, and now their futur is uncertain.

The "problem" (this is not really a problem) with casuals is that they do not really care about the medium. They look at the fun, the price and what they get for it, and IF at one day, they get bored, they move.

Deal with that, casuals will move on other things, it is just a matter of time (and that does not mean they will come back to sony or MS).

 

[PantherLotus]

Soooo...

From what cvx has said:
1. Whoever wins Japan in the first year or two in Japan, wins the LTD.

From what Anihawk has said:
2. Whoever wins Japan, wins worldwide, at least historically.



Are these statements correct?

Don't let Tellaranins absurd quote forest deter you from answering this, please.

 

[AniHawk]

Don't let Tellaranins absurd quote forest deter you from answering this, please.

Historically speaking, they're generally true. As CVX said, the Saturn/PSX thing is kinda iffy, but that's the only example I can think of (the PSP's LTD was never higher than the DS's in Japan).

 

[Tellaerin]

Don't let Tellaranins absurd quote forest deter you from answering this, please.

1.) It's 'Tellaerin'.

2.) No more absurd than doing the 'lead people step by step to stating my conclusion for me by asking them a series of leading questions' thing you've been doing over multiple posts now. Just cut to the chase and say straight out, 'I think if the Wii dominates in Japan for the first couple of years, it'll dominate the entire generation there, and also be the worldwide sales leader.'

 

[PantherLotus]

Historically speaking, they're generally true. As CVX said, the Saturn/PSX thing is pretty iffy, but that's the only example I can think of (the PSP's LTD was never higher than the DS's in Japan).

Thanks ani.

So let's discount the DS "late" success over the PSP, as so many would have us do anyway. Do most of you not all see that the generation is decided the first two years in Japan? Do you not see that some-day price cuts and eventual HD-adoption is a horrendously bad bet for for Sony to bank on?

Whoever wins the first year of Japan, wins worldwide in the end. Sony has 10 to 22 months to find that dominance (Dec 2007). With weekly sales in Japan of <25k, they'd better find it quickly. They can't wait until '08 for that, the winner will already be decided. FFXIII is going to be way too late to make a difference, and unless MGS4 and GT5 can hit this year...

 

[PantherLotus]

1.) It's 'Tellaerin'.

2.) No more absurd than doing the 'lead people step by step to stating my conclusion for me by asking them a series of leading questions' thing you've been doing over multiple posts now. Just cut to the chase and say straight out, 'I think if the Wii dominates in Japan for the first couple of years, it'll dominate the entire generation there, and also be the worldwide sales leader.'

I said it, schmuck (tm). But I did it with far more style and substance while you continue to prance around the room with your "analysis." "Market trends," the "human condition," "gimmicks and fads," wtfe. You don't know shit and you prove it continually.

 

[Kafel]

If Nintendo ( or a third party ) delivers 2-3 non-gamers-centric hits on Wii anytime soon, the game is done.

For now, only Singstar could slow down the coming of the inevitable.

 

[The Innocent X]

Whoever wins the first year of Japan, wins worldwide in the end. Sony has 10 to 22 months to find that dominance (Dec 2007). With weekly sales in Japan of <25k, they'd better find it quickly. They can't wait until '08 for that, the winner will already be decided. FFXIII is going to be way too late to make a difference, and unless MGS4 and GT5 can hit this year...

Its not some mantra. You could say that whoever gets to 10 mill first wins, based on historical fact, but that can`t always be true.

The markets are more divergent this time.

 

[cvxfreak]

And as I said before...[clipped]...by conventional games/controllers/etc.

Lapsed Famicom gamers (it HAS been 23 years) will be in their thirties and forties. Generally these people are in the same age group as the non-gamer elderly. What will be your excuse when NSMB will have sold far too much in Japan to associate lapsed gamers with? Kiddies?

And you can't keep insisting...[clipped]...designed for casual play, but those aren't the titles I'm talking about here.

Read: It's relatively simplistic games that are selling. NSMB (like the first game), Animal Crossing and Tetris DS aren't terribly difficult to play or get into. No one's arguing that something like Final Fantasy III or even Pokemon sold to non-gamers because those have large fanbases that can account for their continued success on DS.

I never said they weren't selling...[clipped]...to the people who bought a DS for the training/cookbook/casual titles.

So they're selling to GBA upgraders (even though DSL is about surpass GBA in Japan and most likely run out of GBA people to continue from) and lapsed gamers, but not older people who are in the same category as lapsed gamers. Riiiiiight.

From the beginning...[clipped]...That's unproven, and I think it's doubtful.

What's unproven is whether people will get tired of the remote. The DS has proven that non-gamers are sustaining it (on an equal level with gamers).

'Little rational evidence' ...[clipped]... initial hardware numbers they're posting.

You like to reference old fads from the past, even though many Nintendo driven ones are particularly successful, while you ignore videogame history which contradicts your misguided notions. Right.

I've said my piece, I've listened to yours (and others'), and no one here feels any differently than they did before they started. (Which is pretty much par for the course, I think. ) So I suppose we shall see what we shall see, and I'll leave it at that.

See you in a few years then.

 

[PantherLotus]

Its not some mantra. You could say that whoever gets to 10 mill first wins, based on historical fact, but that can`t always be true.

The markets are more divergent this time.

I've actually made that case before. It just so happens that whoever gets to 10 mill first also wins Japan in the first year(s), every time.

edit:
Are you suggesting that because the 360 isn't doing well in Japan but is having modest success in the US, that somehow we're looking at magically divergent markets?

Nothing has changed except market share.

 

[The Innocent X]

I've actually made that case before. It just so happens that whoever gets to 10 mill first also wins Japan in the first year(s), every time.

But this time 360 will get to 10M first, and Wii will win japan, at least this year. So who wins overall?

Probably the company that does best in their worst market.

 

[cvxfreak]

I've actually made that case before. It just so happens that whoever gets to 10 mill first also wins Japan in the first year(s), every time.

edit:
Are you suggesting that because the 360 isn't doing well in Japan but is having modest success in the US, that somehow we're looking at magically divergent markets?

Nothing has changed except market share.

The Wii may very well get to 10 Million before the 360, or pull ahead after the 10 Million mark. The 360 doesn't seem to be performing that special in the US and Japanese Wii sales are huge enough to significantly shrink the year gap MS established. I don't remember 360 breaking 300K except for November and December (naturally) but Nintendo seems to have little problem going beyond that at the current rate in Japan alone (nevermind the other regions). Then again, as Iwata seems to be prepared for, sales may slow but production rises in April.

 

[MaddenNFL64]

Guess the only question is, who gets owned down the road. Will be fun to see.

 

[Mar]

If Nintendo ( or a third party ) delivers 2-3 non-gamers-centric hits on Wii anytime soon, the game is done.

Wii Health will be the atom bomb. I've said it many times before. But I honestly believe this game alone will destroy both western and eastern markets.

 

[Kafel]

Wii Health will be the atom bomb. I've said it many times before. But I honestly believe this game alone will destroy both western and eastern markets.

If they market it right ( with a shaddy Professor to convince non-gamers that the game is relevant -just like with Kawashima- ) then it will be a must buy in USA and Europe, I don't know what's the situation in Japan.

 

[The Innocent X]

Are you suggesting that because the 360 isn't doing well in Japan but is having modest success in the US, that somehow we're looking at magically divergent markets?

Nothing has changed except market share.

You make too little mention of the fact that (up till now) there are so few big western franchises announced for Wii. No GTA, no burnout, etc etc. Unless that changes, the Wii isn`t viable as the only console for a lot of americans. How is that not a divergent market?

 

[TheDrowningMan]

It's funny how certain individuals are taking it as a given that the "novelty" of Wii / DS will soon wear off. The "novelty" of plenty of other entertainment mediums - videogaming in general, to use an obvious example - has failed to wear off.

PlayStation expanded the market beyond all expectations. To state that Wii is a novelty which will *definitely* wear off is to concede that you do not believe that many 'non-gamers' purchased the PS throughout its lifespan, and that poor build quality forcing almost every PSone & PS2 owner to buy multiple units is the only factor for its gargantuan sales, rather than a massive, massive conversion of people who'd previously not bothered with games into PS generation gamers.

In fact, surely the "novelty" of videogames in general wore off long ago? I mean, how can these crude, gimmicky push-button toy machines compete with 'real' entertainment like film & music?

 

[DJ Sl4m]

OK getting back to reality, it's obvious the Wii is doing really good right now, but let's be serious here.......... how long before the Wii demand is saturated with Nintendo fans and have to start actually selling to casuals and non Nintendo fans ? It's not there yet at high numbers, the Wii was expected to sell great in the beginning because of the Nfan push, but I can see it really dropping off as people start to get into the HD generation.

The PS3 started slow thanks to such a ridiculous starting price, but I can clearly see it picking up steam as good games drop, (the 1st party games will make sure it's at least partially successful). When Sony does drop the price and the games are there expect it to pick up steam, late but better than never.

The 360 is doing ok, nothing spectacular, I can see it drudging through at the same pace all gen.

My prediction wasn't for japan only, it's WW and I very much think it's reasonable.
MSFT and Nintendo will be considered winners this gen even if Sony were to end up with market share somehow simply because of the ground they gained and they way they made profit compared to last gen.

But if I had to say anyone was in for a disappointment this gen it's the Nfans who actually think Nintendo will maintain this pace.

 

[cvxfreak]

OK getting back to reality, it's obvious the Wii is doing really good right now, but let's be serious here.......... how long before the Wii demand is saturated with Nintendo fans and have to start actually selling to casuals and non Nintendo fans ? It's not there yet at high numbers, the Wii was expected to sell great in the beginning because of the Nfan push, but I can see it really dropping off as people start to get into the HD generation.

If the Wii fanbase were truly saturated with Nintendo fans, Zelda would have outsold Wii Sports and Wii Play in Japan. It didn't.

 

[A Black Falcon]

Really, with all the success the DS is having how can anyone even say "Touchscreen gaming is a fad" (or a gimmick) anymore? When you've hit this level of success, it's obviously more than just a passing thing, destined to soon be replaced by "real" games/controls again.

That is a terrible argument.

It would be like saying "considering Sony sold 220M consoles in the last decade, they can not be replaced", because Sony has achieved a level of succes, nobody has ever achieved in term of hardware sales, and now their futur is uncertain.

The "problem" (this is not really a problem) with casuals is that they do not really care about the medium. They look at the fun, the price and what they get for it, and IF at one day, they get bored, they move.

Deal with that, casuals will move on other things, it is just a matter of time (and that does not mean they will come back to sony or MS).

See "Pokemon is a fad, it'll die out soon!"...

Again, people almost never buy consoles and then forget them, never buying another game. They will buy at least a few more.

As for my quote there, "gimmick" or not at its core (and its not really), developers have found great ways to use it well and do things that wouldn't work nearly as well with other control schemes, and anyway, it's obviously not a fad, that's for sure. "It might stop being successful because people lose interest"? What evidence is that that something like this could happen? Excepting the great videogame crash of 1983, nothing like that has ever happened on the scale that would be required for the DS to suddenly fail... and as for the Wii, it is early, but if things continue along the same path, as they seem to be, soon the same will be true for that as well.

And remember, having the largest number of units means you've got lots of hardcore gamers owning the platform too, not just casuals. It takes a major event to overturn a console leader, and "casuals losing interest" is not that kind of event.

 

[Haunted]

nvm

 

[DJ Sl4m]

If the Wii fanbase were truly saturated with Nintendo fans, Zelda would have outsold Wii Sports and Wii Play in Japan. It didn't.

I never said it's saturated. I think the GC leveled off at about 6million+ before the sales dropped.

If it sounded like that's what I said, it's not how I meant it to sound. The Nfans are carrying and pushing it as much as they can right now is what I mean.

Edit; I don't think anyone here would think that's an accurate gauge of what full saturation of Nfans would be anyway.
Nfans will do anything to make sure Nintendo makes money. Buying up the next big offering from Nintendo is nothing new, I expect almost all 1st party games to sell well. Sega had the same type of fans.

 

[Kafel]

OK getting back to reality, it's obvious the Wii is doing really good right now, but let's be serious here.......... how long before the Wii demand is saturated with Nintendo fans and have to start actually selling to casuals and non Nintendo fans ?

Like I've said numerous times, the Wii has an advantage compared to the DS : the portable is probably YOUR console, the Wii is more likely the console of the living-room.

Then everyone can use it in the family, that's why developers won't be silly and will target the "teenagers" as well.

 

[marc^o^]

if I had to say anyone was in for a disappointment this gen it's the Nfans who actually think Nintendo will maintain this pace.

Mario Galaxy, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Brain Training, Nintendogs to name just a few... will sooner than later appear on Wii. These are among the top multi million seller WW franchises right now and there's no reason why their DS success could not translate to the Wii as well. Then you have the wild cards: Can new channels make a difference to the non gaming crowd? What new successful franchises can Nintendo release besides the Health game? Will Metroïd be so good it can attract non Nintendo fans? How good will sport games be on Wii? Etc. The potential is definitely there to maintain the pace. It's now a question of execution.

 

[cvxfreak]

I never said it's saturated. I think the GC leveled off at about 6million+ before the sales dropped.

If it sounded like that's what I said, it's not how I meant it to sound. The Nfans are carrying and pushing it as much as they can right now is what I mean.

Again, I disagree. Wii Sports and Wii Play are forming a large majority of software sales, while Zelda, Wario Ware and Pokemon combined probably don't even match Wii Sports alone. Nintendo fans AND non-gamers have supported the system so far and will continue to do so.

 

[DJ Sl4m]

Mario Galaxy, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Brain Training, Nintendogs to name just a few... will sooner than later appear on Wii. These are among the top multi million seller WW franchises right now and there's no reason why their DS success could not translate to the Wii as well. Then you have the wild cards: Can new channels make a difference to the non gaming crowd? What new successful franchises can Nintendo release besides the Health game? Will Metroïd be so good it can attract non Nintendo fans? How good will sport games be on Wii? Etc. The potential is definitely there to maintain the pace. It's now a question of execution.

Exactly my point, more 1st party offerings, I bet this will go over well with 3rd party developers......... It's the Nintendo curse.

 

[Kafel]

Again, I disagree. Wii Sports and Wii Play are forming a large majority of software sales, while Zelda, Wario Ware and Pokemon combined probably don't even match Wii Sports alone. Nintendo fans AND non-gamers have supported the system so far and will continue to do so.

Yes, we need a "pac-man" with total sales of the different kinds of software on Wii to reveal its audience.

The Wii Sports and Wii Play bundles may alterate the analysis though.