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[A Black Falcon]

Seriously, have you looked at DS software sales?

If looking at facts hurt your case, would YOU?

... yeah, that's what charts like this are for.

You're just wrong if that's your contention. It's untenable. If the DS was GBA2, the PSP would be winning, and the DS wouldn't be Nintendo's greatest success since the NES. The games that sold the DS did not exist on the GBA in any form.

Oh, the DS most certainly is the GBA 2. As I've said before, if the DS wasn't the GBA 2 there would still be upcoming GBA games, given its fantastic sales last holiday season. While the GBA is five and a half years old, and the DS came out over two years ago, other platforms have lasted longer, even after their successors... it is extremely significant that GBA support began to plunge as soon as the DS took off in Japan, and Nintendo's statements about those "three pillars" suddenly vanished entirely. No, the DS definitely was the successor to the GBA; they gave it a new name because of the new direction they took with the product and because they were unsure as to whether it would succeed, but as soon as it became obvious that it would, the GBA was left to die.

This, of course, does not change the fact that the DS has expanded beyond the GBA's market in Japan, soon will pass it in unit sales, and has become more mainstream a system than the GBA ever was there, or that in the US and Europe it's doing very well too (with the restriction that the West does not have the same degree of interest in handheld consoles as Japan does -- commuting and all that...). The abandonment of the hugely successful "Game Boy" name happened for a reason, after all, and that was because of the changed focus of the system... if the DS had failed I expect that we'd have heard about a "GBA 2" or whatever by now, but it didn't, so the Game Boy name has been left behind.

I think it's hard to seriously argue that the DS's input method hasn't played a role in its success when you look at the software that has predominantly been most successful for the system across all three regions. Given that the touch screen is the main thing that separated the system from the more technologically power PSP, also, and looking at the results, it seems even more difficult to really make that argument.

It's also hilarious given that the DS is quite clearly surpassing the GBA in every respect. How many GBA games cracked a million in Japan, Tellaerin? Not many. The DS, on the other hand, is going to have as many million-sellers as the PS2 soon enough... and it'll be passing the PS2 in hardware.

I'm not overestimating the long-term appeal of motion-sensing control to the casual gamer. I am stating the importance of games to long-term success. It's simple, really: initial success --> userbase --> games --> greater userbase --> more games.

I will say that your point (that the system's success is driven strictly by the novelty factor) may be true to a limited extent in North America and Europe, but it is flatly untrue in Japan, where the consumers have demonstrated quite clearly that they're as intensely interested in it as a gaming system as they were in the DS. And success in Japan will, simply enough, lead to games (and lots of them) by some of the most popular and prestigious third party developers in the world. And that support (along with, yes, the first party lineup) will ensure continued success. THAT is the lesson to take away from the DS... and the PS2, and the PSX. Whatever system has the userbase gets the games.

Once this system -- or any system -- acquires that userbase and acquires a steady stream of quality games (and this is the key thing to pay attention to here): the userbase is not going to suddenly, in the blink of an eye, abandon that console and decide they really wanted something else in the first place.

Denial is a wonderful thing... really though, while it certainly is true that casual gamers buy fewer games than hardcore gamers, they make up for it in sheer numbers; hardcore gamers are not the majority of the market, money-spent wise, and companies know that. So sure, that more casual gamer will only buy 4-8 games for the console over its life, let's say... but how many casual gamers are there for each hardcore one? Several, at least... (and as for nongamers who have bought the system, unless all they ever buy is Kanji Training and Brain Training, they are now casual gamers and I'd expect that overall they'd buy close to as many games/products as many casual gamers would, most likely... and many of them would certainly try SOMETHING beyond just Brain Training. Sure, they'll probably never be hardcore gamers, but not everyone is...) and this is true on every platform -- sure, some consoles have more hardcore gamers than others, but they all have them.

But anyway, the DS game sales numbers show that there isn't a problem software-sales wise, and the focus on casual gamers has not exactly hurt Nintendo (or the third parties) software sales wise. Any suggestions otherwise are wishful thinking... Certainly, some games will sell better on other consoles, or are more suited for PSP, X360, PS3, whatever. And yes, Nintendo sells best on its own platforms. But as the market share increases, the potential market gets larger, and as has been said repeatedly, for games that are trying to attract a wide audience and not just sell only to current owners of whatever platform they are being released on will get a plenty large enough potential market from the DS/Wii and those facts won't matter compared to the sheer size of the potential userbase.

It is certainly harder to predict what will happen in the US than Japan, but the continuing Wii shortage shows no signs of letting up, and the DS finally began to outdistance the PSP since the release of the Lite, even if it's not Japan-like domination... there is no reason to doubt that Nintendo will do very well, and many to question whether Sony will be able to come back; it's certainly possible, if things go really well for them, but it just doesn't seem likely.

The Lord only knows. It's always the same ****ing people too. cvxfreak, Anihawk, ethlred, Lapsed. sondwave05, moku, "token misguided playstation fanboy that doesn't know about the 'DS precedent to end all precedents for ever in the industry corollary'" and round and round they go. Pretty much any article that's remotely related to the DS/Wii/PS3 can trigger one of these abominations.

If you don't like discussing games, why in the world are you here? Discussing gaming is the whole point forums like this exist, and threads like this are what make gaming forums interesting, not what makes them bad. Too many one-sentence-per-post threads with no in-depth discussion in sight is.

 

[jonezer4]

All of this, while the DS is suffering worldwide shortages in both software and hardware, and continues to sell out...

teh false demand!

 

[cvxfreak]

Teh false demand!

No, all the people who bought a DS are upgrading.

And the Pokemon people are buying their obligatory second DS too.

 

[Brak]

Oh, the DS most certainly is the GBA 2. As I've said before, if the DS wasn't the GBA 2 there would still be upcoming GBA games, given its fantastic sales last holiday season. While the GBA is five and a half years old, and the DS came out over two years ago, other platforms have lasted longer, even after their successors... it is extremely significant that GBA support began to plunge as soon as the DS took off in Japan, and Nintendo's statements about those "three pillars" suddenly vanished entirely. No, the DS definitely was the successor to the GBA; they gave it a new name because of the new direction they took with the product and because they were unsure as to whether it would succeed, but as soon as it became obvious that it would, the GBA was left to die.

This, of course, does not change the fact that the DS has expanded beyond the GBA's market in Japan, soon will pass it in unit sales, and has become more mainstream a system than the GBA ever was there, or that in the US and Europe it's doing very well too (with the restriction that the West does not have the same degree of interest in handheld consoles as Japan does -- commuting and all that...). The abandonment of the hugely successful "Game Boy" name happened for a reason, after all, and that was because of the changed focus of the system... if the DS had failed I expect that we'd have heard about a "GBA 2" or whatever by now, but it didn't, so the Game Boy name has been left behind.

You've misread the intent of my comment. Tellaerin was implying that the DS is only more of the same (GBA2), whereas I believe that is patently and provably false.

The DS is absolutely the successor of the GBA but it is also so much more, and that is what I was talking about.

 

[AniHawk]

Did I hurt your feelings? Sorry I bitched about your #1 favorite activity, but you can check my history and see I'm not even in one tenth of the rubbish threads you seem to enjoy so. And if you think what you're reading here is somehow insightful then it would appear spending so much time on Gamefaqs did permanent damage to your ability to appreciate 'insight'.

Well, there's always a goober that decides they should sum up threads, and you just happened to fill that spot for tonight. Thanks for making this thread complete!

 

[Tellaerin]

It's not always you is it? :lol

No, this was my first time blundering into this particular minefield. :lol Baptism by fire - at least now I know what to expect in the future.

wow

did you read any of the posts between this one and the last post you wrote?

aside from Kangu's maybe?

Would you like me to argue individually with every single poster here? Yes, I've read the posts in between, but 'x number of platinum games, blah blah blah' still doesn't tell me who's buying them, and I have a hard time believing that non-gamers who supposedly bought the system for one of these casual-oriented titles are the same ones driving more traditional software sales across the board. If they were interested in those kinds of games to begin with, then they would have jumped aboard during the GBA generation, don't you think? And I'm not seeing the crossover appeal that those titles might have.

I'll be the first to listen if you want to tell me how else NSMB is the best selling Mario game since SMB3.

EDIT - And still going strong, I might add.

Could it be because it is the first new 2D (-gameplay) Mario since Super Mario World? And maybe people who remember SMW from the SNES/Super Famicom days bought a DS specifically for NSMB, rather than out of their love of Nintendogs/Brain Training/the stylus?

Again, two and a half years into its life, the DS is surpassing the GBA in hardware and has triple the platinum games. In 2006, the DS caused total software sales to jump a whopping 20 million over the two prior years.

If you can somehow explain how this can be rationalized as the exact same people who bought stuff on the GBA, by all means, spin away. I'd love to hear the explanation for how the GBA has 5 million sellers and the DS has 17 but it's all the same people (DQMJ sells 500k on the GBA and 1,000,000 on the DS -- I guess all the GBA owners decided to buy two copies!).

It couldn't possibly have anything to do with the DQ franchise having a strong fanbase, and franchise loyalty helping to drive hardware/software purchases, though. It's all thanks to Nintendogs, Brain Training, and the touchscreen, and crossover software sales to casual gamers. And anyone who thinks that notion is absurd is guilty of rationalization and blatant spinning.

And I'd also love to know how this explains why the Wii (which is only tracking marginally behind the PS2's 2000 sales after its launch) is going to tank at some point in the future.

You make it sound like I'm the one that got us off on this tangent. I guess it already slipped your mind that you were the one that chimed in with the 'What you describe is exactly what happened with the DS' remark, implying that the DS situation == Wii situation, and leading to the subsequent dogpile.

If you'd really love to know why I feel the Wii isn't necessarily guaranteed a clean sweep this gen, then go back and reread that post you made the flippant reply to in the first place. Whether or not you agree with my contentions, I think I made it clear why I feel that way.

 

[cvxfreak]

Would you like me to argue individually with every single poster here? Yes, I've read the posts in between, but 'x number of platinum games, blah blah blah' still doesn't tell me who's buying them, and I have a hard time believing that non-gamers who supposedly bought the system for one of these casual-oriented titles are the same ones driving more traditional software sales across the board. If they were interested in those kinds of games to begin with, then they would have jumped aboard during the GBA generation, don't you think? And I'm not seeing the crossover appeal that those titles might have.

You know, for what it's worth, Nintendo used the same woman (the one in my avatar) to advertise Brain Age 2, the DS Travel software and New Super Mario Brothers.

Could it be because it is the first new 2D (-gameplay) Mario since Super Mario World? And maybe people who remember SMW from the SNES/Super Famicom days bought a DS specifically for NSMB, rather than out of their love of Nintendogs/Brain Training/the stylus?

They've run out of Super Famicom (not to mention GBA) people to sell to. In theory the only audience left to sell to from the olden days is the SMB people. But even that's very far reaching.

It couldn't possibly have anything to do with the DQ franchise having a strong fanbase, and franchise loyalty helping to drive hardware/software purchases, though. It's all thanks to Nintendogs, Brain Training, and the touchscreen, and crossover software sales to casual gamers. And anyone who thinks that notion is absurd is guilty of rationalization and blatant spinning.

Where the hell did they go when the GBA game was around and what magically prompted these exact same people to come back?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

this shit really needs to stop

 

[AniHawk]

Someone's using a GIF I made... AND IT'S NOT ME!!

WOOHOO!

 

[ethelred]

Would you like me to argue individually with every single poster here? Yes, I've read the posts in between, but 'x number of platinum games, blah blah blah' still doesn't tell me who's buying them, and I have a hard time believing that non-gamers who supposedly bought the system for one of these casual-oriented titles are the same ones driving more traditional software sales across the board. If they were interested in those kinds of games to begin with, then they would have jumped aboard during the GBA generation, don't you think? And I'm not seeing the crossover appeal that those titles might have.

Your argument appears to be:

"The touch screen hasn't made games more accessable to casual gamers and hasn't had an impact on the DS's success because it's just the GBA owners buying stuff."
"But the DS is outselling the GBA and has destroyed the GBA in software sales."
"I don't think it could be casual gamers, though, because there's no reason why they wouldn't buy these games on the GBA."

Great circular reasoning.

It couldn't possibly have anything to do with the DQ franchise having a strong fanbase, and franchise loyalty helping to drive hardware/software purchases, though. It's all thanks to Nintendogs, Brain Training, and the touchscreen, and crossover software sales to casual gamers. And anyone who thinks that notion is absurd is guilty of rationalization and blatant spinning.

Yeah, DQM4 has outsold DQM3 two times over just because of the strength of the DQ franchise... I guess that makes sense. Square Enix really ****ed up by naming DQM3 "Teletubbies Adventures" in Japan.

You make it sound like I'm the one that got us off on this tangent. I guess it already slipped your mind that you were the one that chimed in with the 'What you describe is exactly what happened with the DS' remark, implying that the DS situation == Wii situation, and leading to the subsequent dogpile.

I will say that your point (that the system's success is driven strictly by the novelty factor) may be true to a limited extent in North America and Europe, but it is flatly untrue in Japan, where the consumers have demonstrated quite clearly that they're as intensely interested in it as a gaming system as they were in the DS. And success in Japan will, simply enough, lead to games (and lots of them) by some of the most popular and prestigious third party developers in the world. And that support (along with, yes, the first party lineup) will ensure continued success. THAT is the lesson to take away from the DS... and the PS2, and the PSX. Whatever system has the userbase gets the games.

Once this system -- or any system -- acquires that userbase and acquires a steady stream of quality games (and this is the key thing to pay attention to here): the userbase is not going to suddenly, in the blink of an eye, abandon that console and decide they really wanted something else in the first place.

That's why I brought up the DS, in case it still isn't clear.

Incidentally, I've never argued the Wii will be making a clean sweep of anything. But it is pretty funny to watch people try to deny the reality that it is winning Japan and is likely to continue winning Japan, and the impact that will have on software development... and then to argue that consumer support is just going to spontaneously jump off a cliff in year 2.5.

 

[.dmc]

Yes, I've read the posts in between, but 'x number of platinum games, blah blah blah' still doesn't tell me who's buying them, and I have a hard time believing that non-gamers who supposedly bought the system for one of these casual-oriented titles are the same ones driving more traditional software sales across the board.

So you don't think there is any correlation between the influx of 'new' gamers and the increase in number of platinum selling games? Actually, case in point, who do you think bought the 700k+ copies of Love + Berry? Or Tamagotchi:CC?

 

[A Black Falcon]

You've misread the intent of my comment. Tellaerin was implying that the DS is only more of the same (GBA2), whereas I believe that is patently and provably false.

The DS is absolutely the successor of the GBA but it is also so much more, and that is what I was talking about.

No, I got the comment, I just was saying my opinion on the is-the-DS-a-successor-to-the-GBA issue, pretty much. I wouldn't say that the difference is as significant as you suggest... it's mostly a marketing change, and only lesser a game design change (I remember some travel software, dictionary, etc. stuff for the original GB...). If it was the same product called the "GB 4" or something and with similar gaming software to the DS just without most of the "nongame" (productivity/brain training/etc) stuff, it'd still be doing well... just probably GBA well, not DS well. The marketing change was the key. It's similar for the Wii of course, because they just took their successful DS strategy and modified it some, but the Wiimote has a more immediate 'this is cool' feeling than a touchscreen, helping Nintendo some there.

That's why I brought up the DS, in case it still isn't clear.

Incidentally, I've never argued the Wii will be making a clean sweep of anything. But it is pretty funny to watch people try to deny the reality that it is winning Japan and is likely to continue winning Japan, and the impact that will have on software development... and then to argue that consumer support is just going to spontaneously jump off a cliff in year 2.5.

Since Nintendo isn't going to go the way of Sega in 1994-1995, for sure, that's pretty darn unlikely.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Someone's using a GIF I made... AND IT'S NOT ME!!

WOOHOO!

I'm thinking of submitting it to the American Psychological Association as the new visual definition of anguish.

 

[Kangu]

If you don't like discussing games, why in the world are you here? Discussing gaming is the whole point forums like this exist, and threads like this are what make gaming forums interesting, not what makes them bad. Too many one-sentence-per-post threads with no in-depth discussion in sight is.

Discussing sales= discussing games?

Anihawk: Ooh Tag team! I better gets me a partner.

 

[unomas]

I'm laughing at all this because up to this point nobody can provide any hard proof that the Wii is selling to people who A) Weren't gamers before or B) Didn't own a Gamecube. I think the Wii sales have been excellent but 3 months in and I'm not convinced it's expanding the audience from kids/loyalists to people who weren't gamers before. I don't know of a single person who played a Wii and went out to purchase one after. They all said they loved it etc. etc., but none of them rushed out to buy one.

I know of 3 people who were full grown adults ranging from 25-45 that had a fun experience with Wii sports because little Johnny got one for Christmas, but of those three none of them went looking for a Wii to purchase. To me the Wii is just selling to those who bought a Gamecube or other fringe gamers.

What about the 120 million or so people that picked up a PS2? I would imagine at least half of them will either buy a 360 or PS3 when the prices come down. Nintendo is certainly not guaranteed to be the market leader in sales no matter what this thread tells you.

 

[AniHawk]

Anihawk: Ooh Tag team! I better gets me a partner.

I only state facts like you do. We're not so different, you and I. In fact, we're the same.

 

[A Black Falcon]

Discussing sales= discussing games?

Anihawk: Ooh Tag team! I better gets me a partner.

Discussing sales is an aspect of discussing games, certainly...

I'm laughing at all this because up to this point nobody can provide any hard proof that the Wii is selling to people who A) Weren't gamers before or B) Didn't own a Gamecube. I think the Wii sales have been excellent but 3 months in and I'm not convinced it's expanding the audience from kids/loyalists to people who weren't gamers before. I don't know of a single person who played a Wii and went out to purchase one after.

I know of 3 people who were full grown adults ranging from 25-45 that had a fun experience with Wii sports because little Johnny got one for Christmas, but of those three none of them went looking for a Wii to purchase. To me the Wii is just selling to those who bought a Gamecube or other fringe gamers.

What about the 120 million or so people that picked up a PS2? I would imagine at least half of them will either buy a 360 or PS3 when the prices come down. Nintendo is certainly not guaranteed to be the market leader in sales no matter what this thread tells you.

Don't look at the sales charts for long, you won't like what you see...

 

[unomas]

Discussing sales is an aspect of discussing games, certainly...



Don't look at the sales charts for long, you won't like what you see...

Don't get so excited after three months, the PS3's heavy hitters on the software side haven't arrived yet. And software sells consoles right?

 

[Battersea Power Station]

I'm laughing at all this because up to this point nobody can provide any hard proof that the Wii is selling to people who A) Weren't gamers before or B) Didn't own a Gamecube. I think the Wii sales have been excellent but 3 months in and I'm not convinced it's expanding the audience from kids/loyalists to people who weren't gamers before. I don't know of a single person who played a Wii and went out to purchase one after.

I know of 3 people who were full grown adults ranging from 25-45 that had a fun experience with Wii sports because little Johnny got one for Christmas, but of those three none of them went looking for a Wii to purchase. To me the Wii is just selling to those who bought a Gamecube or other fringe gamers.

What about the 120 million or so people that picked up a PS2? I would imagine at least half of them will either buy a 360 or PS3 when the prices come down. Nintendo is certainly not guaranteed to be the market leader in sales no matter what this thread tells you.

Everything you say is true. Unfortunately, in our capitalist society, there exists the job of financial analysts. These guys can't wait for 10 million + X Wiis to sell in NA and go "Just outsold the GameCube. Mathematically speaking, the Wii must have been sold to at least someone who did not buy a GameCube." If this was the kind of proof we needed, third parties would scarcely make games because they're still waiting on the results.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'd just like to acknowledge Anihawk's use of the word "goober". Good show.

 

[A Black Falcon]

Don't get so excited after three months, the PS3's heavy hitters on the software side haven't arrived yet. And software sells consoles right?

How many times does "Once things get to a certain point, that doesn't matter anymore" need to be said, really? Unless things change before the PS3 falls well behind, which looks very, very unlikely, one big game is unlikely to make up a huge gap unless the competition falls apart as well, which is even less likely. (this is, of course, more true in Japan than in the US, though it can be applied here too, if MS's hardware lead is taken into consideration first)

 

[Brak]

I wouldn't say that the difference is as significant as you suggest... it's mostly a marketing change, and only lesser a game design change (I remember some travel software, dictionary, etc. stuff for the original GB...). If it was the same product called the "GB 4" or something and with similar gaming software to the DS just without most of the "nongame" (productivity/brain training/etc) stuff, it'd still be doing well... just probably GBA well, not DS well. The marketing change was the key. It's similar for the Wii of course, because they just took their successful DS strategy and modified it some, but the Wiimote has a more immediate 'this is cool' feeling than a touchscreen, helping Nintendo some there.

I don't understand how you can remove everything that differentiates the DS from the PSP, and then suggest that it would do equally well. The PSP was beating the DS for several months and had a wave of momentum. Without Nintendogs and Brain Training to reverse that momentum we would not be in the same situation.

Marketing and strategy is important, but it isn't worth a damn if you don't back it up with killer software.

 

[unomas]

How many times does "Once things get to a certain point, that doesn't matter anymore" need to be said, really? Unless things change before the PS3 falls well behind, which looks very, very unlikely, one big game is unlikely to make up a huge gap unless the competition falls apart as well, which is even less likely. (this is, of course, more true in Japan than in the US, though it can be applied here too, if MS's hardware lead is taken into consideration first)

People will go where the software is, do you think those Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Tekken, and Metal Gear gamers are just going to abandon the platform? I'm not a playstation gamer, I'm not buying a PS3 unless the price falls dramatically and it gets some exclusives that I can't go without playing. If I was a playstation gamer I wouldn't be in any hurry to pick up a PS3 right now considering the price and lack of software. I'd do what a majority of them are probably doing, wait for the software to start hitting and hope the price is lower when it hits.

To deny the software power of the console and call the gen over in Japan is a little premature to say the least. They might not be snatching up the console at it's current price, but those games also haven't been released. When those games start to come out and the price drops hardware will move. How fast it moves depends on how low the price is at the time. If Sony wants any chance to win they need to take one for the team and get that thing down to $399 or lower ASAP.

 

[EphemeralDream]

I'm laughing at all this because up to this point nobody can provide any hard proof that the Wii is selling to people who A) Weren't gamers before or B) Didn't own a Gamecube. I think the Wii sales have been excellent but 3 months in and I'm not convinced it's expanding the audience from kids/loyalists to people who weren't gamers before. I don't know of a single person who played a Wii and went out to purchase one after. They all said they loved it etc. etc., but none of them rushed out to buy one.

I know of 3 people who were full grown adults ranging from 25-45 that had a fun experience with Wii sports because little Johnny got one for Christmas, but of those three none of them went looking for a Wii to purchase. To me the Wii is just selling to those who bought a Gamecube or other fringe gamers.

What about the 120 million or so people that picked up a PS2? I would imagine at least half of them will either buy a 360 or PS3 when the prices come down. Nintendo is certainly not guaranteed to be the market leader in sales no matter what this thread tells you.

Looks like this thread will be burning the midnight oil. Well it would be nice if you specified the region you're discussing but in Japan, the Wii will have sold roughly half the Gamecube's LTD in only 3 months. The DS clearly has restored faith in Nintendo over there. Out of those FF, GT, Tekken players (most of which won't come out till late 07 or sometime 08), if that is all there is for them on the console, then yes many of them will abandon it. The PS3 doesn't have enough software in between big hits to keep Japan interested. There are also few signs of JP development switching over towards the PS3.

 

[Pureauthor]

People will go where the software is, do you think those Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Tekken, and Metal Gear gamers are just going to abandon the platform?

Pst. Last generation, a bunch of gamers made an argument for a certain console picking up steam and beating it's competitors. In support of the argument, they listed big-name franchises, franchises that were guaranteed to come to that system, STAY with that system, and sell by the millions.

That system was the Gamecube.

I'm not a playstation gamer, I'm not buying a PS3 unless the price falls dramatically and it gets some exclusives that I can't go without playing. If I was a playstation gamer I wouldn't be in any hurry to pick up a PS3 right now considering the price and lack of software. I'd do what a majority of them are probably doing, wait for the software to start hitting and hope the price is lower when it hits.

Yes, and we are hardcore gamers. We can tell you the releases periods of major games, we can estimate with a fair amount of accuracy how much they'll sell, we can tell you the number of interviews in which the game in question were discussed.

Joe Casual goes, "Metal Gear? ... Oh, yeah, it's that 2D arcade game with the tanks, right?"

Actually, no, scratch that. He wouldn't know to use '2D'.

To deny the software power of the console and call the gen over in Japan is a little premature to say the least. They might not be snatching up the console at it's current price, but those games also haven't been released. When those games start to come out and the price drops hardware will move. How fast it moves depends on how low the price is at the time. If Sony wants any chance to win they need to take one for the team and get that thing down to $399 or lower ASAP.

IF the Wii continues to dominate, I can tell you right now what will happen in the scenario you just painted.

Major Game A will release. PS3 will see a sudden rise in sales for a couple of weeks. Then weekly sales will revert to normal. It has happened with every single system that failed to achieve market dominance, with the exception of the PSP, in which sometimes hardware numbers didn't get a boost at all.

 

[DDayton]

People will go where the software is, do you think those Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Tekken, and Metal Gear gamers are just going to abandon the platform?

...well, that's assuming Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, and Tekken arrive on the PS3... exclusively.

If the Wii manages to consistently outsell the PS3, I have this funny feeling the "Playstation games" aren't going to be staying on the Playstation.

(No, I'm not saying the CURRENT PS3 exclusive games aren't arriving, I'm just saying that any guarantee future titles would appear on the PS3 might be null and void.)

 

[A Black Falcon]

I don't understand how you can remove everything that differentiates the DS from the PSP, and then suggest that it would do equally well. The PSP was beating the DS for several months and had a wave of momentum. Without Nintendogs and Brain Training to reverse that momentum we would not be in the same situation.

I didn't say it would do equally well. I said that it would do about as well as the GBA did; the DS is doing better than the GBA, thus if the DS was instead the GBA 2 (or GB 4, whatever), it wouldn't be doing as well as it is.

As for the PSP... perhaps. The PSP did do better than I expected it to, before it came out, and it was the different focus that won things for the DS, but if the DS had been more immediately "normal" seeming, would it have had that hesitation? There's no way of knowing... (and besides, DS never actually fell behind the PSP in total units sold...)

Marketing and strategy is important, but it isn't worth a damn if you don't back it up with killer software.

Well yes, you tie your software design decisions into your marketing strategy. Or at least, enough of them for the strategy to work.

People will go where the software is, do you think those Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Tekken, and Metal Gear gamers are just going to abandon the platform? I'm not a playstation gamer, I'm not buying a PS3 unless the price falls dramatically and it gets some exclusives that I can't go without playing. If I was a playstation gamer I wouldn't be in any hurry to pick up a PS3 right now considering the price and lack of software. I'd do what a majority of them are probably doing, wait for the software to start hitting and hope the price is lower when it hits.

To deny the software power of the console and call the gen over in Japan is a little premature to say the least. They might not be snatching up the console at it's current price, but those games also haven't been released. When those games start to come out and the price drops hardware will move. How fast it moves depends on how low the price is at the time. If Sony wants any chance to win they need to take one for the team and get that thing down to $399 or lower ASAP.

Uhh... you counter your own case here. People will go where the software is, exactly. Which, if it has a hardware lead, will be Nintendo. Do you honestly think that the Wii will be in first place in Japan but no one will be making games for it? Tekken is a Sony series, but the Wii is getting FFCC and DQ Swords, and it'll get more traditional RPGs for sure if it does well. Fighting games, racing games? Really. Between the fact that Nintendo is focusing on attracting people who don't play games, not people who do (and making them gamers by getting them to buy a Nintendo platform), and the fact that if by the time some of the still-popular-in-Japan PS3 games come out Wii will have a huge lead, do you really think they will turn things around? This isn't the N64 again (being defeated by Square switching sides, that is)... the Wii has a large and growing fanbase, and as a result it will get games. Simple as that. And with its smaller marketshare, the PS3 will get fewer.

 

[Deku]

...well, that's assuming Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, and Tekken arrive on the PS3... exclusively.

If the Wii manages to consistently outsell the PS3, I have this funny feeling the "Playstation games" aren't going to be staying on the Playstation.

(No, I'm not saying the CURRENT PS3 exclusive games aren't arriving, I'm just saying that any guarantee future titles would appear on the PS3 might be null and void.)

Final Fantasy wasn't a playstation game 10 years ago. And 6 years ago, it was inconceivable to think Final Fantasy would ever end up on a Nintendo platform again or on the Xbox. But here were are. A lot of gamers seem to take franchises for granted on the PlayStation, perhaps things needs to be shaken up a little just to make things more interesting.

 

[unomas]

I can see what all of you are hoping for. We aren't to any kind of point however where PS3 exclusives have gone Wii, until that happens and PS3 loses most of it's 3rd party exclusives to the Wii in Japan it still has a good chance. Obviously if the PS3 loses those exclusives they will probably still have a serious advantage graphically over the Wii ports.

This isn't portables, this is home consoles. I've personally owned nearly every home console under the sun, I've never owned a portable in my life. So I'm not really big on the DS versus PSP comparisons everyone wants to use in this thread. With all of that said boys, I'm off to bed. I gotta work in 6 hours. Enjoy the night.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

holy shit at this thread!

Save your energy guys... What will you guys do when Media Create and NPD comes out this week?

 

[cvxfreak]

I only state facts like you do. We're not so different, you and I. In fact, we're the same.

AniHawk = cvxfreak = Fuzzy = Kangu now?

 

[Pureauthor]

holy shit at this thread!

Save your energy guys... What will you guys do when Media Create and NPD comes out this week?

Saving our energy? We're just using this to get ourselves warmed up.

 

[cvxfreak]

holy shit at this thread!

Save your energy guys... What will you guys do when Media Create and NPD comes out this week?

This is a prelude of the things to come. This thread is Pearl Harbor, but NPD will be Hiroshima. Media Create should be comparatively mellow this week.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

I can't keep up. I'm going to bed :lol

 

[Pureauthor]

What time is it in America (or wherever you are) anyway? it's 4 in the afternoon here.

 

[Pud]

Super Mario Sunshine and the Resident Evil series will save the Gamecube, right guys? And Halo 2, with its massive hype, will make all kinds of gamers gravitate from the PS2 to the XBox for sures!

 

[cvxfreak]

Super Mario Sunshine and the Resident Evil series will save the Gamecube, right guys? And Halo 2, with its massive hype, will make all kinds of gamers gravitate from the PS2 to the XBox for sures!

Virtua Fighter 5 is the REmake of our time.

 

[AniHawk]

Virtua Fighter 5 is the REmake of our time.

Motorstorm can be Eternal Darkness then.

 

[DDayton]

I can see what all of you are hoping for. We aren't to any kind of point however where PS3 exclusives have gone Wii, until that happens and PS3 loses most of it's 3rd party exclusives to the Wii in Japan it still has a good chance. Obviously if the PS3 loses those exclusives they will probably still have a serious advantage graphically over the Wii ports..

Hoping for?

I haven't been able to get into any of the Metal Gear games (solid or otherwise), haven't liked the FF games since they went 3D, and never liked Tekken (or most 3D fighters).

I'm just pointing out that third party PS3 titles are so due to presumed dominance of the platform; if the PS3 fails to dominate, you won't see those titles (more likely, their sequels) on the PS3.

It wouldn't be entirely unprecedented to see some high-profile titles cancelled and shifted to another platform... although the power differences between the PS3/360 and the Wii do make it seem rather unlikely that a title would simply be "moved" to the Wii. Even if the Wii utterly dominates, I rather think most of the big titles already in development for the PS3 would still be released, simply because it might be ludicrous to port them at that point. However, I would seriously doubt the future of such games on the platform...

 

[Tellaerin]

You know, for what it's worth, Nintendo used the same woman (the one in my avatar) to advertise Brain Age 2, the DS Travel software and New Super Mario Brothers.

They've run out of Super Famicom (not to mention GBA) people to sell to. In theory the only audience left to sell to from the olden days is the SMB people. But even that's very far reaching.

Where the hell did they go when the GBA game was around and what magically prompted these exact same people to come back?

I'll ask this once: What the hell does any of that have to do with the stylus/Brain Training/Nintendogs? You tell me how sales of hardware to casuals and nongamers - a group that is defined by their lack of interest in traditional games - is driving sales of software like NSMB and DQ:MJ.

Your argument appears to be:

"The touch screen hasn't made games more accessable to casual gamers and hasn't had an impact on the DS's success because it's just the GBA owners buying stuff."
"But the DS is outselling the GBA and has destroyed the GBA in software sales."
"I don't think it could be casual gamers, though, because there's no reason why they wouldn't buy these games on the GBA."

Great circular reasoning.

Yeah, DQM4 has outsold DQM3 two times over just because of the strength of the DQ franchise... I guess that makes sense. Square Enix really ****ed up by naming DQM3 "Teletubbies Adventures" in Japan.

If all the software we were talking about was aimed at the casual/non-gamer audience, then you'd have a point. But I'm having examples thrown at me like NSMB and DQ, which aren't going to appeal to the middle-aged salaryman who heard about how this 'Brain Training' thing will sharpen your mind on TV or the young woman who wanted a DS and Nintendogs because she can't keep a real dog in her apartment - in other words, the 'expanded audience' that Nintendo's been reaching out to.

And I think you can afford to dial back the sarcasm a bit.

That's why I brought up the DS, in case it still isn't clear.

And my point was that I don't think the DS' success can be attributed solely (or even primarily) to the stylus, or that stylus games for casuals are the primary source of revenue for publishers (particularly 3rd parties) on the platform right now. Those things may account for a good chunk of hardware sales, but I don't think the people buying the hardware for those reasons are the same ones buying most of the software.

The people who are bullish on the Wii keep touting it as a platform designed to appeal to casual- and non-gamers, much like the DS supposedly is, and they seem to be predicting its long-term success for the same reason. The lion's share of the attention it's received to date has been because of the novel input device and the casual-oriented games in production for it. If that's the angle that they (and 3rd parties) continue to push as the 'image' for the Wii - and right now, that seems to be the case - then I can see the more 'traditional' consoles eventually overtaking it - definitely in terms of attach rate, and possibly even in terms of hardware units sold.

Perhaps they'll surprise me, though.

Incidentally, I've never argued the Wii will be making a clean sweep of anything. But it is pretty funny to watch people try to deny the reality that it is winning Japan and is likely to continue winning Japan, and the impact that will have on software development... and then to argue that consumer support is just going to spontaneously jump off a cliff in year 2.5.

And I think it's funny that people see a Christmas fad and automatically assume that this translates to assured long-term consumer interest, when I know they've seen media-driven holiday sales of items before and really ought to know better. But hey, like I said in my initial post, we'll see in the fullness of time. And if I turn out to be wrong after all, you can link to this thread, and I can say 'OK, I was wrong. *shrug* '

 

[Pureauthor]

I'll ask this once: What the hell does any of that have to do with the stylus/Brain Training/Nintendogs? You tell me how sales of hardware to casuals and nongamers - a group that is defined by their lack of interest in traditional games - is driving sales of software like NSMB and DQ:MJ.



If all the software we were talking about was aimed at the casual/non-gamer audience, then you'd have a point. But I'm having examples thrown at me like NSMB and DQ, which aren't going to appeal to the middle-aged salaryman who heard about how this 'Brain Training' thing will sharpen your mind on TV or the young woman who wanted a DS and Nintendogs because she can't keep a real dog in her apartment - in other words, the 'expanded audience' that Nintendo's been reaching out to.

And I think you can afford to dial back the sarcasm a bit.

*sigh*

Alright, then. You tell me. Where has the sudden and unprecedented increase in people buying traditional games come from?

 

[A Black Falcon]

What time is it in America (or wherever you are) anyway? it's 4 in the afternoon here.

3am, east coast.

Motorstorm can be Eternal Darkness then.

A game that is awesome but nobody buys, then?

Hoping for?

I haven't been able to get into any of the Metal Gear games (solid or otherwise), haven't liked the FF games since they went 3D, and never liked Tekken (or most 3D fighters).

I'm just pointing out that third party PS3 titles are so due to presumed dominance of the platform; if the PS3 fails to dominate, you won't see those titles (more likely, their sequels) on the PS3.

It wouldn't be entirely unprecedented to see some high-profile titles cancelled and shifted to another platform... although the power differences between the PS3/360 and the Wii do make it seem rather unlikely that a title would simply be "moved" to the Wii. Even if the Wii utterly dominates, I rather think most of the big titles already in development for the PS3 would still be released, simply because it might be ludicrous to port them at that point. However, I would seriously doubt the future of such games on the platform...

The hope of course is that those games somehow switch things around dramatically and the PS3 starts winning, but even FFXIII exclusive doesn't look likely to be able to do that, if it even ends up exclusive... and by the time those games come out, so much other stuff will be available for the Wii that it should definitely counterbalance it. Remember how the first year of the DS was pretty weak software-wise for the most part until developers figured out how to use the thing in year two? Yeah.

I'll ask this once: What the hell does any of that have to do with the stylus/Brain Training/Nintendogs? You tell me how sales of hardware to casuals and nongamers - a group that is defined by their lack of interest in traditional games - is driving sales of software like NSMB and DQ:MJ.

Because those games are being marketed to everyone who owns a DS, not just the ones that bought it for "traditional games". Is it really so hard to believe that someone who bought a DS for Nintendogs might get interested in NSMB? I wouldn't say so, no. Their incredble sales show that it's far more than just selling to current fans.

If all the software we were talking about was aimed at the casual/non-gamer audience, then you'd have a point. But I'm having examples thrown at me like NSMB and DQ, which aren't going to appeal to the middle-aged salaryman who heard about how this 'Brain Training' thing will sharpen your mind on TV or the young woman who wanted a DS and Nintendogs because she can't keep a real dog in her apartment - in other words, the 'expanded audience' that Nintendo's been reaching out to.

And I think you can afford to dial back the sarcasm a bit.

You're saying this despite sales numbers that pretty much prove it false?

And my point was that I don't think the DS' success can be attributed solely (or even primarily) to the stylus, or that stylus games for casuals are the primary source of revenue for publishers (particularly 3rd parties) on the platform right now.

The people who are bullish on the Wii keep touting it as a platform designed to appeal to casual- and non-gamers, much like the DS supposedly is, and they seem to be predicting its long-term success for the same reason. The lion's share of the attention it's received to date has been because of the novel input device and the casual-oriented games in production for it. If that's the angle that they (and 3rd parties) continue to push as the 'image' for the Wii - and right now, that seems to be the case - then I can see the more 'traditional' consoles eventually overtaking it - definitely in terms of attach rate, and possibly even in terms of hardware units sold.

Perhaps they'll surprise me, though.

Again, look at early DS games, and then look at ones now. As developers come to understand this new form of game control, games will start to use it better and better. It might initially sell just because of controls, but eventually software and momentum will be all that's needed, like with the DS... and they already have the first phase of that software out there with Wii Sports and Wii Play.

And I think it's funny that people see a Christmas fad and automatically assume that this translates to assured long-term consumer interest, when I know they've seen media-driven holiday sales of items before and really ought to know better. But hey, like I said in my initial post, we'll see in the fullness of time. And if I turn out to be wrong after all, you can link to this thread, and I can say 'OK, I was wrong. *shrug* '

If Wii sales had dropped off after Christmas, you'd have a point. It's been over a month and they haven't. Not in Japan, not in America. This is more than just a "christmas fad".

 

[Deku]

If all the software we were talking about was aimed at the casual/non-gamer audience, then you'd have a point. But I'm having examples thrown at me like NSMB and DQ, which aren't going to appeal to the middle-aged salaryman who heard about how this 'Brain Training' thing will sharpen your mind on TV or the young woman who wanted a DS and Nintendogs because she can't keep a real dog in her apartment - in other words, the 'expanded audience' that Nintendo's been reaching out to.
'

So whose buying all that NSMB games? Right Nintendo fans, the same ones who failed to materialize on other recent Mario games.

Your analysis is simplistic and self serving.

 

[Pureauthor]

Well, if one is willing to trust GameFAQS on this, some guy on NGG had the brilliant suggestion that Nintendo told their employees to go out and buy multiple copies of that game.

 

[Tellaerin]

*sigh*

Alright, then. You tell me. Where has the sudden and unprecedented increase in people buying traditional games come from?

You're right, of course. They're all casuals and non-gamers. None of them could have been console gamers, former console gamers, or anything else. Every last one of those sales is directly attributable to people who had no interest in gaming until they saw Nintendogs or Brain Training, and their desire to improve their minds, own a virtual pet, or the 'cool' factor of playing a game with a stylus suddenly inspired them to run out and buy DraQue, NSMB, or any other high-selling game you care to name. Because, you know, there's massive overlap between the audience for traditional games and games for casuals/nongamers.

 

[Pureauthor]

You're right, of course. They're all casuals and non-gamers. None of them could have been console gamers, former console gamers, or anything else. Every last one of those sales is directly attributable to people who had no interest in gaming until they saw Nintendogs or Brain Training, and their desire to improve their minds, own a virtual pet, or the 'cool' factor of playing a game with a stylus suddenly inspired them to run out and buy DraQue, NSMB, or any other high-selling game you care to name. Because, you know, there's massive overlap between the audience for traditional games and games for casuals/nongamers.

'Only a Sith speaks in absolutes.'

If you really want my theory, here:

Nongamer hears about DS and Nintendogs/Animal Crossing/Brain Training. Apparently, it's awesome.

She buys the DS and Animal Crossing. She has oodles of fun playing it.

Big promotion campaign for New Super Mario Bros. arrives.

Nongamer thinks 'Mario... I've heard that name before. Oh, yeah, my son always liked to play that game on the Famicom, wasn't it?'

Since she has a DS and the spare cash, why not? She buys a copy of NSMB.

And that's not even counting lapsed gamers, or revitalised gamers from the PS2 era.

 

[MasterMFauli]

A game that is awesome but nobody buys, then?

No, a great adventure, but a bad racing game

 

[A Black Falcon]

No, a great adventure, but a bad racing game

Bad? Eternal Darkness is one of the best games on the GC, so "bad" doesn't belong anywhere near it.

 

[DDayton]

The hope of course is that those games somehow switch things around dramatically and the PS3 starts winning, but even FFXIII exclusive doesn't look likely to be able to do that, if it even ends up exclusive... and by the time those games come out, so much other stuff will be available for the Wii that it should definitely counterbalance it. Remember how the first year of the DS was pretty weak software-wise for the most part until developers figured out how to use the thing in year two? Yeah.

Actually, I think his point was that all of "us" were "hoping" that the PS3 would crash and burn and that all of its titles would appear on the Wii. Granted, I think his hope is as you just stated...

 

[cvxfreak]

I'll ask this once: What the hell does any of that have to do with the stylus/Brain Training/Nintendogs? You tell me how sales of hardware to casuals and nongamers - a group that is defined by their lack of interest in traditional games - is driving sales of software like NSMB and DQ:MJ.

Is it so hard to believe? I just said it above: Nintendo's using the same woman to advertise Brain Age, DS country travel software and New Super Mario Bros.

If all the software we were talking about was aimed at the casual/non-gamer audience, then you'd have a point. But I'm having examples thrown at me like NSMB and DQ, which aren't going to appeal to the middle-aged salaryman who heard about how this 'Brain Training' thing will sharpen your mind on TV or the young woman who wanted a DS and Nintendogs because she can't keep a real dog in her apartment - in other words, the 'expanded audience' that Nintendo's been reaching out to.

Having the platform in their hands has given them a chance to try games they normally wouldn't have bought before. If we substract the millions of DS sales that resulted from these new gamers, NSMB would NOT have sold over 4 Million and counting. It would most certainly have not surpassed SMW, SMB2 and SMB3 so quickly either.

And my point was that I don't think the DS' success can be attributed solely (or even primarily) to the stylus, or that stylus games for casuals are the primary source of revenue for publishers (particularly 3rd parties) on the platform right now. Those things may account for a good chunk of hardware sales, but I don't think the people buying the hardware for those reasons are the same ones buying most of the software.

No one buys the thing for the stylus/touchscreen, but the stylus is responsible for making so many of the DS's top selling games so popular. Nintendogs would not have sold well without the touchscreen assisting in interactivity. You'll have to suspend your notions as a hardcore gamer in order to find this believable.

The people who are bullish on the Wii keep touting it as a platform designed to appeal to casual- and non-gamers, much like the DS supposedly is, and they seem to be predicting its long-term success for the same reason. The lion's share of the attention it's received to date has been because of the novel input device and the casual-oriented games in production for it. If that's the angle that they (and 3rd parties) continue to push as the 'image' for the Wii - and right now, that seems to be the case - then I can see the more 'traditional' consoles eventually overtaking it - definitely in terms of attach rate, and possibly even in terms of hardware units sold.

Perhaps they'll surprise me, though.

Oh, you'll be surprised alright.

And I think it's funny that people see a Christmas fad and automatically assume that this translates to assured long-term consumer interest, when I know they've seen media-driven holiday sales of items before and really ought to know better. But hey, like I said in my initial post, we'll see in the fullness of time. And if I turn out to be wrong after all, you can link to this thread, and I can say 'OK, I was wrong. *shrug* '

HEY GUYS POKEMON IS A FAD