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Enterbrain confident in Wii maintaining its lead over PS3 in Japan
- Thread starter ziran
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Tellaerin said:Apparently the die-hard Sony fans are convinced that there's only a novelty factor at work in the success of the Wii so far. I'm inclined to agree. I still think the 'gee whiz' response to seeing your gestures translated into actions on screen fueled a lot of the media and casual interest over the holidays. The Wii was 2006's Furby.And despite all the chest-thumping of the fanboys, thus far the Wiimote has yet to prove itself the inevitable successor to conventional controllers - it accomodates some genres better than a gamepad, and others not as well. Its big advantage right now is its accessibility to the casual gamer, but whether or not that's still going to be a big selling point once the initial novelty wears off remains to be seen.
Personally, I think that half the casuals who bought the Wii this Christmas will have moved on to some other fad six months from now, maybe pulling out the system for an occasional round of Wiisports with friends. I suspect the attach ratio is going to reflect this. Nintendo's handful of first-party games for the system are going to do well (as always), but I don't think many other developers are going to be making money on this new demographic that they're courting in the long run. I also think that people like Lapsed are going to be proven tragically wrong about the Wii bringing 'lapsed gamers' back into the fold in any significant way - playing the occasional party game with friends isn't guaranteed to translate to consistent gaming/software purchasing.
So yes, I can see the Wii eventually surrendering its lead to the X360 and PS3, as the trend-following casuals Nintendo's aiming at now move on to the next Big Thing, while the more traditional/'core' gamer audience buys systems designed and marketed to appeal to their tastes. I could be wrong, of course - just like those of you predicting a clean sweep for the Wii this generation could be wrong. We'll just have to see whose predictions end up panning out.
I fixed a few things to reflect your opinion more closely but it's an insightful post. Rivaling that of the forum;s greatest minds.
Tellaerin said:Apparently the die-hard Nintendo fans are convinced that there's no novelty factor at work in the success of the Wii so far. I'm inclined to disagree. I still think the 'gee whiz' response to seeing your gestures translated into actions on screen fueled a lot of the media and casual interest over the holidays. The Wii was 2006's Furby.
Personally, I think that half the casuals who bought the Wii this Christmas will have moved on to some other fad six months from now, maybe pulling out the system for an occasional round of Wiisports with friends. I suspect the attach ratio is going to reflect this. Nintendo's handful of first-party games for the system are going to do well (as always), but I don't think many other developers are going to be making money on this new demographic that they're courting in the long run. I also think that people like Lapsed are going to be proven tragically wrong about the Wii bringing 'lapsed gamers' back into the fold in any significant way - playing the occasional party game with friends isn't guaranteed to translate to consistent gaming/software purchasing.
So yes, I can see the Wii eventually surrendering its lead to the X360 and PS3, as the trend-following casuals Nintendo's aiming at now move on to the next Big Thing, while the more traditional/'core' gamer audience buys systems designed and marketed to appeal to their tastes. I could be wrong, of course - just like those of you predicting a clean sweep for the Wii this generation could be wrong. We'll just have to see whose predictions end up panning out.
I agree. What you describe is exactly what happened with the DS.
With Nintendo attacking disinterest, today might be the least popular that Wii becomes. Any entertainment medium doing the same thing, again and again, will have disinterest rise up against them like rising water levels. Nintendo's focus is to lower that disinterest level which brings in new gamers.
Did the DS become less popular over time or more? Not counting holidays, has the DS reversed from its surge? It just keeps growing and growing and growing. If Nintendo keeps pushing back disinterest, then the Wii will only get more popular.
But I think I know why analysts keep thinking Playstation sales are going to start shooting up (aside from the technology factor). Playstation and Playstation 2 had a unique advantage over its rivals due to how Sony changed how console companies dealt third parties. By working with third party companies during development of the console, Sony was able to get out many launch games (as well as 'launch window' games) very early. By pushing to create such a mass library, the sales of the Playstation became an almost self fulfilling prophecy as increasing the library increases the odds of surprise break out hits (hello GTA 3) and allows all demographics to be covered (mature games, girl games, kid games, and so on). There is really something for everyone in the Playstation library.
Sony carefully watched Nintendo and Sega during the 16-bit generation. By all the software that was coming out, it would all help push the PS1 over that of the drought plagued N64 and Saturn. Sony did the same with the PS2. Nintendo, still not understanding Sony's strategy, put out the technological superior Gamecube and, again, suffered droughts and third party issues. Microsoft saw its problem was that the PS2 had come out a year ahead of the Xbox which allowed the system to become entrenched. Developers got used to working on PS2.
This traditional Playstation advantage no longer applies this generation. Microsoft intentionally puts out the Xbox 360 a year ahead of the PS3 and heavily focuses on development tools so developers get used to working on the Xbox 360. During the Gamecube years, Nintendo was quietly studying the Playstation 2. George Harrison said, "We learned from the PS2 how to make a games console." Nintendo has embraced the Playstation's 'mass library' strategy which is why the Wii had around thirty games at launch instead of 12 (?) of the Gamecube and two of the N64. Nintendo has turned their 'weak hardware' into an advantage by offering it as a solution for third party companies' very high spending on next-gen machines.
The differentiating strategy elements (such as the mass library) that caused the PS1 and PS2 to rocket up above its competitors over a long range of time are no longer in play. In four to five years, the PS3 might be priced in the $200-300 range, but then brand new consoles such as the Xbox 720 and Wii 2 (or whatever) will arrive and be 'the cool thing'.
Did the DS become less popular over time or more? Not counting holidays, has the DS reversed from its surge? It just keeps growing and growing and growing. If Nintendo keeps pushing back disinterest, then the Wii will only get more popular.
But I think I know why analysts keep thinking Playstation sales are going to start shooting up (aside from the technology factor). Playstation and Playstation 2 had a unique advantage over its rivals due to how Sony changed how console companies dealt third parties. By working with third party companies during development of the console, Sony was able to get out many launch games (as well as 'launch window' games) very early. By pushing to create such a mass library, the sales of the Playstation became an almost self fulfilling prophecy as increasing the library increases the odds of surprise break out hits (hello GTA 3) and allows all demographics to be covered (mature games, girl games, kid games, and so on). There is really something for everyone in the Playstation library.
Sony carefully watched Nintendo and Sega during the 16-bit generation. By all the software that was coming out, it would all help push the PS1 over that of the drought plagued N64 and Saturn. Sony did the same with the PS2. Nintendo, still not understanding Sony's strategy, put out the technological superior Gamecube and, again, suffered droughts and third party issues. Microsoft saw its problem was that the PS2 had come out a year ahead of the Xbox which allowed the system to become entrenched. Developers got used to working on PS2.
This traditional Playstation advantage no longer applies this generation. Microsoft intentionally puts out the Xbox 360 a year ahead of the PS3 and heavily focuses on development tools so developers get used to working on the Xbox 360. During the Gamecube years, Nintendo was quietly studying the Playstation 2. George Harrison said, "We learned from the PS2 how to make a games console." Nintendo has embraced the Playstation's 'mass library' strategy which is why the Wii had around thirty games at launch instead of 12 (?) of the Gamecube and two of the N64. Nintendo has turned their 'weak hardware' into an advantage by offering it as a solution for third party companies' very high spending on next-gen machines.
The differentiating strategy elements (such as the mass library) that caused the PS1 and PS2 to rocket up above its competitors over a long range of time are no longer in play. In four to five years, the PS3 might be priced in the $200-300 range, but then brand new consoles such as the Xbox 720 and Wii 2 (or whatever) will arrive and be 'the cool thing'.
Tellaerin said:
Just like all those girls who threw out their DS when they got bored of Nintendogs & elderly people who moved on once their Brain Age hit 20? A games console is not a use-once-then-throw-away investment, the people who jumped on the Wii train for Wii Sports are going to want new games in 6months time and you better believe that Nintendo or another 3rd party are going to release them.
soundwave05
Member
Sony's in trouble in Japan.
No FF13 until 2008. MGS 4 isn't enough to carry the second half of the year, it may not even sell a million copies.
I mean ... shit ... all Nintendo has released really is Zelda + Wii Sports right now. What happens when Wii Motor Sports, Wii Music, and about 10 other Wii titles come out (because you know they're coming)? Then factor in the other Nintendo franchises like Smash Bros. and
Mario Galaxy.
Sony can drop their price ... Nintendo can drop theirs much more easily. Nintendo could easily keep the Wii 1/2 the price of the PS3 for the next few years without much trouble.
I think PS3 will still reasonably well in Japan, but I agree, Nintendo simply may be too hot in Japan to be caught, and Sony doesn't have their bigger guns coming out for a while yet.
Right now, Nintendo had more trouble with the PSP in Japan than the PS3 early on.
No FF13 until 2008. MGS 4 isn't enough to carry the second half of the year, it may not even sell a million copies.
I mean ... shit ... all Nintendo has released really is Zelda + Wii Sports right now. What happens when Wii Motor Sports, Wii Music, and about 10 other Wii titles come out (because you know they're coming)? Then factor in the other Nintendo franchises like Smash Bros. and
Mario Galaxy.
Sony can drop their price ... Nintendo can drop theirs much more easily. Nintendo could easily keep the Wii 1/2 the price of the PS3 for the next few years without much trouble.
I think PS3 will still reasonably well in Japan, but I agree, Nintendo simply may be too hot in Japan to be caught, and Sony doesn't have their bigger guns coming out for a while yet.
Right now, Nintendo had more trouble with the PSP in Japan than the PS3 early on.
Link
The Autumn Wind
Just sayin'.Tellaerin said:Apparently the die-hard Nintendo fans are convinced that there's no novelty factor at work in the success of the DS so far. I'm inclined to disagree. I still think the 'gee whiz' response to seeing your gestures translated into actions on screen fueled a lot of the media and casual interest over the holidays. The DS was 2004's Furby.
Personally, I think that half the casuals who bought the DS this Christmas will have moved on to some other fad six months from now, maybe pulling out the system for an occasional round of Nintendogs with friends. I suspect the attach ratio is going to reflect this. Nintendo's handful of first-party games for the system are going to do well (as always), but I don't think many other developers are going to be making money on this new demographic that they're courting in the long run. I also think that people like Lapsed are going to be proven tragically wrong about the DS bringing 'lapsed gamers' back into the fold in any significant way - playing the occasional party game with friends isn't guaranteed to translate to consistent gaming/software purchasing.
So yes, I can see the DS eventually surrendering its lead to the PSP, as the trend-following casuals Nintendo's aiming at now move on to the next Big Thing, while the more traditional/'core' gamer audience buys systems designed and marketed to appeal to their tastes. I could be wrong, of course - just like those of you predicting a clean sweep for the DS this generation could be wrong. We'll just have to see whose predictions end up panning out.
AniHawk said:
Nah, just an up-front admission that I could be wrong - I'm hardly infallible, and I know it. If the Wii ends up redefining the industry and making videogame history the way the N-fans are predicting, then that's what happens. I'm not going to shrivel up in embarassment because I was wrong. But as of now, I don't see that happening. *shrug*
Deku said:
Cute, Deku. For the record, I'm a die-hard fan of whichever company delivers the kind of gaming experiences I'm most interested in. In the 16-bit era, that was Nintendo (and more importantly, the third parties that supported them). I generally prefer Japanese-developed games to Western ones, and I prefer 'traditional' games and input devices to those designed to appeal to casual/lapsed/non-gamers, none of which I am. So if I'm a 'die-hard Sony fan', as you imply it's only because they're the ones offering me what I want right now. If Sega hadn't crashed and burned with the Dreamcast, it's likely that they'd be competing neck-in-neck with Sony for my gaming dollars right now.
Any other snarky remarks?
ethelred said:
We all know that the business about the DS being a 'third pillar' is nonsense. Regardless of what Nintendo called the machine, the public views it as the successor to the GBA, which is effectively what it is. If some other company had released the DS, at the same price point and with the exact same stylus-based games that supposedly made the system a mainstream hit (Nintendogs, Brain Age), but without GBA compatibility or the promise of peoples' favorite developers/old franchises moving to 'Nintendo's newest handheld' (and support for the current one waning accordingly), I don't think it would have done anywhere near as well. I think you (and others) are overestimating the importance of the input mechanism to the DS' success, just like you're overestimating the long-term appeal of motion-sensing control to the casual gamer.
.dmc said:
But are the people buying a DS for Brain Age or Nintendogs going to buy enough other software to really make an impact in the long run? It's the same thing with the Wii, IMO. How often do non-gamers buy new party games to play with their friends? Not nearly as often as 'traditional' gamers buy new titles for their consoles - who do you know that regularly buys 1-2 new boardgames (or what have you) a month for when their friends are over? That's the audience Nintendo seems to be putting front and center, and that's why I have my doubts about how much software those people will buy in the long run.
Wyndstryker
Member
Damn, this thread will be great to dig up a year or two from now.
soundwave05
Member
Nintendogs and Brain Training don't work without the touchscreen though ... how can you say that's an overrated aspect? :lol
I bet money Sony is kicking themselves for not putting a touchscreen on the PSP.
I think in Japan anyway, Sony's market is shrinking. You could already see it happening even before the DS IMO.
The Playstation brand was a breath of fresh air 10 years ago ... now Sony is the one that's just I dunno ... it seems like the other guys are doing more interesting things, especailly to casual observers and the mainstream media.
How is it that they're having so much trouble even selling 750k PS3s, when the PS2, with mediocre launch lineup itself, sold 1 million in hours? I don't think even if the PS2 was more expensive it would have made any difference in 2000.
Instead of staying ahead of the competetion, Sony has rested on their laurels and decided to use their game division as a trojan horse for HD movies .... which a lot of people simply don't care for when buying a game console.
I bet money Sony is kicking themselves for not putting a touchscreen on the PSP.
I think in Japan anyway, Sony's market is shrinking. You could already see it happening even before the DS IMO.
The Playstation brand was a breath of fresh air 10 years ago ... now Sony is the one that's just I dunno ... it seems like the other guys are doing more interesting things, especailly to casual observers and the mainstream media.
How is it that they're having so much trouble even selling 750k PS3s, when the PS2, with mediocre launch lineup itself, sold 1 million in hours? I don't think even if the PS2 was more expensive it would have made any difference in 2000.
Instead of staying ahead of the competetion, Sony has rested on their laurels and decided to use their game division as a trojan horse for HD movies .... which a lot of people simply don't care for when buying a game console.
Dragona Akehi
Retired
Someone is forgetting that DS software sales continue to rise...
Tellaerin said:
I think it's hard to seriously argue that the DS's input method hasn't played a role in its success when you look at the software that has predominantly been most successful for the system across all three regions. Given that the touch screen is the main thing that separated the system from the more technologically power PSP, also, and looking at the results, it seems even more difficult to really make that argument.
It's also hilarious given that the DS is quite clearly surpassing the GBA in every respect. How many GBA games cracked a million in Japan, Tellaerin? Not many. The DS, on the other hand, is going to have as many million-sellers as the PS2 soon enough... and it'll be passing the PS2 in hardware.
I'm not overestimating the long-term appeal of motion-sensing control to the casual gamer. I am stating the importance of games to long-term success. It's simple, really: initial success --> userbase --> games --> greater userbase --> more games.
I will say that your point (that the system's success is driven strictly by the novelty factor) may be true to a limited extent in North America and Europe, but it is flatly untrue in Japan, where the consumers have demonstrated quite clearly that they're as intensely interested in it as a gaming system as they were in the DS. And success in Japan will, simply enough, lead to games (and lots of them) by some of the most popular and prestigious third party developers in the world. And that support (along with, yes, the first party lineup) will ensure continued success. THAT is the lesson to take away from the DS... and the PS2, and the PSX. Whatever system has the userbase gets the games.
Once this system -- or any system -- acquires that userbase and acquires a steady stream of quality games (and this is the key thing to pay attention to here): the userbase is not going to suddenly, in the blink of an eye, abandon that console and decide they really wanted something else in the first place.
Smiles and Cries
Member
damn these threads are long
Wii wins okay! Just leave with it
Wii wins okay! Just leave with it
krypt0nian
Banned
Dragona Akehi said:
...to the Heavens one might say.
EphemeralDream
Member
I was wondering if you'd show up ethelred :lol .ethelred said:
You make some good points Tellaerin but you said it yourself in your post, the remote is just another controller. It's not a message from god nor is it something you'll rest on your pillow at night. The only hardcore gamers who are stretching out the novelty factor of the remote are those who troll the console. Those who already own the Wii have seen its capabilities, its flaws and accepted them. It is used to great length in WW:SM and Wii Sports yet toned down in Zelda or the channels. The fact that it can provide that first experience without alienating the second is the real step forward and there will likely be plenty of games on both sides of the spectrum.
In regards to the Furby of 2006, that Christmas rush is a big deal. With all those non-gamers impressed by the media coverage who picked it up and showed it to their friends, they provided the best form of advertisement, word of mouth. Yes these people will get bored but as said above, there will be more games to keep them satisfied and eventually they might pick up a more traditional game. As for the hardcore demographic, snowball effect again. Those bunch of non-gamers pick up a Wii and get a game or two, but these are still potential customers for 3rd parties. 3rd parties are definitely not courting the non-gamers like Nintendo are but they still have the hardcore market to give them sales.
If Nintendo can sustain the interests of non-gamers and casuals (and Sony is doing a horrible job of this in Japan), then 3rd party support will stick around also. Also don't forget that many hardcore gamers love the Wii Remote stuff so they aren't necessarily going to forget about the Wii either.
soundwave05 said:
Read my last post again. The point is that I think the DS' success as a platform owes more to its status as the de facto successor to the GBA than to the touchscreen and stylus. I think it's the people migrating to the DS from the GBA that are the prime force driving software sales, not the non-gamer types that bought a DS specifically for Nintendogs or Brain Training, and aren't liable to buy much else for the thing.
Speevy said:
They'll only be infrequent for the first year or so. Once the Wii's userbase picks up, Japanese publishers will begin bringing more content to the machine.
Tellaerin said:
.............the DS is about two to three weeks away from outselling the GBA lifetime sales in Japan.
Dragona Akehi
Retired
Shhhhh, cvx, don't give them facts. That'll only poke holes in their argum--
Oh.
Oh.
soundwave05
Member
Tellaerin said:
I don't buy this though ... I think it's pure damage control now after the point. If the DS was purely the GBA's successor, how is it the PSP outsold the DS for like 3 straight months in Japan until Nintendogs and Brain Training turned the tide in Japan?
How is it the DS LTD in Japan is going to surpass the GBA FULL LTD in just a few months (and yes that's GB + GBA SP + GB Micro combined).
How is it that the DS is not only going to surpass any GB ever released in Japan, but also the Famicom, Super Famicom, Playstation 1, and Playstation 2 probably by sizable margins. This is going to be the best selling game machine in Japanese history, not just another Game Boy.
GBA isn't shit compared to the DS in Japan. In Japan, the DS didn't even need Pokemon and it will outsell the GBA LTD probably by a good 10 million. The DS is a phenomenon over there.
charlequin
Banned
Tellaerin said:
Right. That fits perfectly with the fact that the DS is outselling the GBA in software and hardware by ludicrous margins in every territory!
Bildi said:
The Lord only knows. It's always the same ****ing people too. cvxfreak, Anihawk, ethlred, Lapsed. sondwave05, moku, "token misguided playstation fanboy that doesn't know about the 'DS precedent to end all precedents for ever in the industry corollary'" and round and round they go. Pretty much any article that's remotely related to the DS/Wii/PS3 can trigger one of these abominations.
Barf_the_Mog
powerless or are they? o_O
cvxfreak said:
Denial and the mention of the PSP in this thread? Why wasn't I told?
Dragona Akehi said:
The question is, who's buying those DS games? Is it the casual market - the casuals and nongamers who bought a DS for Nintendogs or Brain Training - or is it all the GBA owners who 'traded up' to a DS because it's Nintendo's newest handheld, and they realized that GBA support would go downhill fast once developers started moving to the new platform? Yes, people are buying a ton of hardware to play those titles, which I believe, but I'm not hearing anything about how (or if) this is driving sales of other software for the platform.
Link
The Autumn Wind
Are you seriously making this argument? Really? Because four 4-million sellers in the Top 10 isn't something the GBA (or any other system, for that matter) ever got anywhere close to doing.Tellaerin said:
Not to mention however many million sellers the damn thing has already.
soundwave05
Member
Tellaerin said:
The question is who gives a f-ck? Nintendo's selling their systems and ton of games. For 5 years with the PS2 all we heard was about its userbase and Sony selling while the other two were sitting around making excuses.
Nintendo is building their hardware base right now. Sony is now the one making excuses stuck with a bloated system that is about $200, maybe even $300 too expensive with no FF13 coming anytime soon to bail them out.
Every week the Wii outsells the PS3, is another week Sony has to make up for at some point later on if they hope to catch Nintendo. Right now Nintendo is doing 100% the right thing.
cvxfreak said:
Did I hurt your feelings? Sorry I bitched about your #1 favorite activity, but you can check my history and see I'm not even in one tenth of the rubbish threads you seem to enjoy so. And if you think what you're reading here is somehow insightful then it would appear spending so much time on Gamefaqs did permanent damage to your ability to appreciate 'insight'.
Tellerin said:I do have a name, you know.
It's not always you is it? :lol
It seems it's always someone different.
CreatureX3
Member
The Nintendo haters can't see the facts!Link said:
They keep claiming that Nintendo needs to do more. Nintendo needs to do this and that. More hardcore games, more mature games, be more like Sony and MS.They don't see that Nintendo has never been as successful in their entire history than they are now. They don't see that it's MS and Sony who are the ones trying to catch up to Nintendo by trying to create more casual games. MS with Viva Pinata and Sony with Loco Roco.
MS had a pretty good end of year run with great sales of the Xbox360, great sales for Gears of War and the success of Xbox Live. Yet what did that get MS? Xbox division still lost $300million and they were still outsold by the PS2 for the entire year. And the haters say Nintendo needs to be more like MS? :lol
Do I even have to go over the problems with the PS3?
The bottom line is that Nintendo doesn't need the "mature" gamer, they have proved that with the DS, and looking at the sales numbers, they are proving that with the Wii as well.
It's Sony and MS who are in trouble. They are the ones who need the "casual" gamers. The casual gamer has helped Nintendo DS destroy the PSP, and they will help the Wii win the console war.
charlequin
Banned
Kangu said:
I am impressed at the skill with which you have deftly identified the troublemakers whose insane and twisted ramblings detoured this thread into a swamp of suckitude! Do you perhaps have a newsletter or other method of delivering your latest nuggets of insight to me through the post?
EDIT: I'll pay a cold hard nickel plus US First Class Postage for the privledge!
Tellaerin said:
Again, two and a half years into its life, the DS is surpassing the GBA in hardware and has triple the platinum games. In 2006, the DS caused total software sales to jump a whopping 20 million over the two prior years.
If you can somehow explain how this can be rationalized as the exact same people who bought stuff on the GBA, by all means, spin away. I'd love to hear the explanation for how the GBA has 5 million sellers and the DS has 17 but it's all the same people (DQMJ sells 500k on the GBA and 1,000,000 on the DS -- I guess all the GBA owners decided to buy two copies!).
And I'd also love to know how this explains why the Wii (which is only tracking marginally behind the PS2's 2000 sales after its launch) is going to tank at some point in the future.
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