Support NeoGAF

[Vibranium]

Then I expect Switch to not sell well. Bundles won't be good enough. £280 is just way too high.

I agree with you totally, but Nintendo will do their own thing as always.

 

[Bamboo 竹]

A nice recovery for Nintendo. But it also show us that this thing won't be a hit at DS or Wii level, at least for now. The "gimmick" this time isn't that revolutionary as the previous entry.

I mean, probably the minority bought this because of HD Rumble.

 

[LordKano]

When all is said and dont,the ps4 will outsell the 3ds though,I wouldn't say they are leaders by such a margin.

Thing is, in addition to selling more hardware they're also selling much much more software than anyone else, despite the Wii U. That's why they're the leader since so many years and it likely won't ever change.

Oh wow, thanks for that data. Glad to see updated figures.

You're welcome.

 

[LordKasual]

Thing is, in addition to selling more hardware they're also selling much much more software than anyone else, despite the Wii U. That's why they're the leader since so many years and it likely won't ever change.

The most hilarious thing about Nintendo is that the thing that makes their handheld market so successful is exactly what their consoles are always lacking.

Nintendo's strategy works perfectly for low-cost, simplistic handheld gaming. It just completely falls apart though when it leaves that space.

I really feel like ever since the Wii, Nintendo has tried to copy/paste its handheld formula into the console market. It worked with the Wii because it just had really lucky timing, on the eve of mobile games finding their way. It bombed for WiiU and it probably wont avail them much with the switch either.

 

[Welfare]

You're welcome.

Just quoting you as it's now a new page, but with this data we know how PS4 and Xbox One sold last year.

PS4 YTD 2016: 1,066,000 (+0%)
2015: 1,065,000

Xbox One YTD 2016: 311,000 (+4%)
2015: 298,000

 

[legend166]

Thats a huge step down if we're counting the 3DS' 60+ million sold in the last 6 years alongside the Wii U's 14M. From ~80M to 30M is huge, even if its not as big as 250M to 80M.

I wonder if they're considering a DS successor at this point, or just pushing the Switch with price drops and expanded software lineups.



Microsoft is doing about that and are considered a failure around these parts.

I agree that 30 million would be a failure, but the realities of the market make it unfair to compare it to the 3DS (much as it was unfair to compare the 3DS to the DS). The maturation of mobile gaming has changed the dedicated handheld market forever. I struggle to think of any handheld they could release that would outsell the 3DS. I think a hybrid device is their best shot. I think if the Switch sells 50 million with an active userbase it's an unqualified success.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

I'm not talking about the likes of EA and Activision regarding support that isn't there. I'm talking about those that ARE.

If the Switch launches day one with Zelda and Mario Kart, then who is buying Bomberman, Fast RMX etc? Zelda is a lock for most day one buyers, but I think Mario Kart launching alongside it sucks the air out of the room for everybody else.

It looks better on a list and I personally wish we had it now, but I'm not convinced releasing MK8 now is better for business.

I never implied it had to be Mario Kart. Ports of Wooly World or Rainbow Curse or other titles would have helped launch a lot. No offense but it isn't throwing ondies under the bus just because you make your console more than a Zelda machine on launch day.

If you wanna sell us a system you gotta try harder at launch.

Yeah they likely aren't coming. Switch is pretty much in the same position it was in with the Wii.

Not as severe, of course, but the same position. Devs don't care to downgrade their work to fit on a weak console.

Not to mention the loops they probably have to jump through to provide now-super-basic multiplayer and social features on a Nintendo console. So even if a game like CoD was coming, they probably still have to worry about Nintendo putting a hatchet to its established features.


Noticing this super familiar trend again is why I don't have a switch now, which is sad because i was really up for buying one on launch day. Same shit, different year.

Yeah it is gonna be the WiiU again in regards to 3rd party. With hopefully more consistent CoD.

 

[notaskwid]

I agree that 30 million would be a failure, but the realities of the market make it unfair to compare it to the 3DS (much as it was unfair to compare the 3DS to the DS). The maturation of mobile gaming has changed the dedicated handheld market forever. I struggle to think of any handheld they could release that would outsell the 3DS. I think a hybrid device is their best shot. I think if the Switch sells 50 million with an active userbase it's an unqualified success.

Companies make the products sold in the market though, it's also unfair to blame the 'market' for a company lack of foresight or ability to change it.

 

[BuggyMike]

I don't know if this has been pointed out already, but it's important to note that platforms like PS4 and XB1 launched around the holidays, with Switch in March, so direct comparisons arent very fair. But under the current circumstances this seems really tight. If that Pokemon Stars game really does come out at years end, it could do really well.

 

[legend166]

Companies make the products sold in the market though, it's also unfair to blame the 'market' for a company lack of foresight or ability to change it.

I'm not 'blaming' the market. I'm just saying that mobile gaming represents a fundamental shift in how consumers see and use specialised devices. I don't think there's anything Nintendo could possibly do to return the dedicated handheld market to its former glory. Horse-drawn cart makers couldn't do much after the Model-T came out. Or to use a more modern example - the point and shoot camera market. I'd say with confidence that market has contracted dramatically as phone cameras have improved. And I don't think there's anything Canon or Nikon could do to revive it.

Note I'm not saying dedicated handheld gaming is dead, just that the potential market has contracted back to enthusiasts.

 

[4Tran]

The Switch's initial numbers aren't bad, but it's likely to be tied into the hardcore Nintendo and early adopter numbers so they're not particularly meaningful yet. I'd imagine that the numbers in May-June will give us a better picture of how well it's doing.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

I agree that 30 million would be a failure, but the realities of the market make it unfair to compare it to the 3DS (much as it was unfair to compare the 3DS to the DS). The maturation of mobile gaming has changed the dedicated handheld market forever. I struggle to think of any handheld they could release that would outsell the 3DS. I think a hybrid device is their best shot. I think if the Switch sells 50 million with an active userbase it's an unqualified success.

In whose eyes, exactly? The last thing new investors want to hear is that your business is almost halving in one gigantic core business operation of yours.

Unless you're suggesting making mobile/PC a bigger core business of theirs, which I would definitely agree that homogenous platforms such as PC and Mobile are the future.

 

[dead souls]

I don't know if this has been pointed out already, but it's important to note that platforms like PS4 and XB1 launched around the holidays, with Switch in March, so direct comparisons arent very fair. But under the current circumstances this seems really tight. If that Pokemon Stars game really does come out at years end, it could do really well.

I'm not sure why people think Pokemon will make the Switch sell well. Of course a Nintendo handheld with Pokemon will sell better than one without, but I don't see any title making this thing fly off the shelves at £280/$300 once the launch hype dies down.

It's not like people picking up an $79 2DS after playing Pokemon Go.

 

[LordKano]

I'm not sure why people think Pokemon will make the Switch sell well. Of course a Nintendo handheld with Pokemon will sell better than one without, but I don't see any title making this thing fly off the shelves at £280/$300 once the launch hype dies down.

It's not like people picking up an $79 2DS after playing Pokemon Go.

People picked a 200$ New 3DS after playing Pokémon GO though. And they would have picked a 300$ device if that's what they would have to pay for Pokémon.

 

[Resistance100]

I'm not sure why people think Pokemon will make the Switch sell well. Of course a Nintendo handheld with Pokemon will sell better than one without, but I don't see any title making this thing fly off the shelves at £280/$300 once the launch hype dies down.

It's not like people picking up an $79 2DS after playing Pokemon Go.

I think it's fair to say Pokémon go had a big impact on sun and moon sales

 

[Wireframe]

Pretty respectable. I think if nintendo can deliver on the software the concept of mobile local multiplayer could really catch on.

 

[Shaanyboi]

Not the worst start, not the best start. It's... a start. Comparisons to the X1 or PS4 are a bit disingenuous considering the timing of those launches. That said, the same goes to the WiiU launch. Those were holiday debuts.

 

[Kilrogg]

When all is said and dont,the ps4 will outsell the 3ds though,I wouldn't say they are leaders by such a margin.

That wasn't his point. The point is that Nintendo is still alive and kicking in France. The 3DS has sold more than the PS4 and XBO combined so far. That alone is noteworthy. And the Wii U, while it sold poorly, is only slightly behind the XBO (which is very reminiscent of the PS2 era, btw).

The Switch has great commercial potential in the French market.

 

[Pancakes R Us]

I'm not sure why people think Pokemon will make the Switch sell well. Of course a Nintendo handheld with Pokemon will sell better than one without, but I don't see any title making this thing fly off the shelves at £280/$300 once the launch hype dies down.

Blind faith / hope. The trials and tribulations of being a Nintendo fan...in the UK.

My prediction: this thing is gonna be dead within a year by way of retailers dropping it or something else. Either that or a price cut / ambassador programme of some sorts. Maybe it'll be relegate to a tiny shelf in some retailers like Wii U was. I hope I'm completely wrong, but I don't have faith at £280 with PS4/XBO available for less in a market which isn't Nintendo-friendly.

 

[Durden77]

Seems like a very respectable start to me, especially considering Nintendo's waning presence in the last few years on the console side of things. The 3DS's launch was pretty much the last time they made a footprint. And while it was a solid one and the system itself is still stong, it's imprint has been soiled to a certain extent by mobile gaming. They haven't made any true waves in a looooong time, especially on the home console market.

Seems about what I expected. The system is filled with potential, and this is a solid start.

 

[antonz]

Good but not Great. Then Again Nintendo has never really had an overwhelming presence in UK. I doubt UK got more than 100k at launch if that. There are other markets in Europe that are more Nintendo embracing.

Will have to see how things go over the course of the year.

 

[notaskwid]

That wasn't his point. The point is that Nintendo is still alive and kicking in France. The 3DS has sold more than the PS4 and XBO combined so far. That alone is noteworthy. And the Wii U, while it sold poorly, is only slightly behind the XBO (which is very reminiscent of the PS2 era, btw).

The Switch has great commercial potential in the French market.

I understand, it will be the best european market for Switch, for sure, but it's also not a lie that they are losing market share to Sony.

I'm not 'blaming' the market. I'm just saying that mobile gaming represents a fundamental shift in how consumers see and use specialised devices. I don't think there's anything Nintendo could possibly do to return the dedicated handheld market to its former glory. Horse-drawn cart makers couldn't do much after the Model-T came out. Or to use a more modern example - the point and shoot camera market. I'd say with confidence that market has contracted dramatically as phone cameras have improved. And I don't think there's anything Canon or Nikon could do to revive it.

Note I'm not saying dedicated handheld gaming is dead, just that the potential market has contracted back to enthusiasts.

I get it, but I still think that Nintendo fumbled the 3ds worldwide and didn't read the market correctly. The 2ds is proof enough IMO.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I never implied it had to be Mario Kart. Ports of Wooly World or Rainbow Curse or other titles would have helped launch a lot. No offense but it isn't throwing ondies under the bus just because you make your console more than a Zelda machine on launch day.

Or minecraft.

And even though it looks a garbage game, I still think Mario Superstars would have done well for a Switch launch game. Multi million seller LTD easy imo.


edit:
I'm not expecting Switch to do well in the U.K.

 

[Unrivaled]

neither poor nor great launch

 

[legend166]

In whose eyes, exactly? The last thing new investors want to hear is that your business is almost halving in one gigantic core business operation of yours.

Unless you're suggesting making mobile/PC a bigger core business of theirs, which I would definitely agree that homogenous platforms such as PC and Mobile are the future.

I mean, that's why they're diversifying into mobile gaming and increased licensing of their IP (TV shows, theme parks, etc). I'm sure they've seen the writing on the wall.

Remember, it wasn't just the 3DS that experienced significant contraction. From the figures I can find, Sony went from 76 million with the PSP to 10 million with the Vita. Nintendo went from 150 million DSs to (probably ending up at) 70 million 3DSs. So we're talking an overall decline of 65% in the dedicated handheld market. That's what I mean when I talk about a fundamental shift in the market.

That's why I think a hybrid is the best option Nintendo could have gone for. It adds a value proposition that distinguishes it from mobile gaming. I think they've bungled a bit of the execution with the Switch, but not fatally. Most of it can be fixed. But the one that can't is the lack of AAA 3rd party support, and that will put an upper limit on its lifetime sales (unless it turns into a cultural phenomenon like the Wii, but I don't see that happening).

 

[gtj1092]

Thing is, in addition to selling more hardware they're also selling much much more software than anyone else, despite the Wii U. That's why they're the leader since so many years and it likely won't ever change.



You're welcome.

Are you saying Nintendo generates more revenue than PlayStation in France?

 

[4Tran]

That's why I think a hybrid is the best option Nintendo could have gone for. It adds a value proposition that distinguishes it from mobile gaming. I think they've bungled a bit of the execution with the Switch, but not fatally. Most of it can be fixed. But the one that can't is the lack of AAA 3rd party support, and that will put an upper limit on its lifetime sales (unless it turns into a cultural phenomenon like the Wii, but I don't see that happening).

I suspect that, at the end of the day, the Switch is going to be seen as a dedicate handheld as well. It's just not competitive with proper home consoles, so it's easier to think of it as a handheld with TV-Out capabilities. As such, it'll likely follow the decline of handhelds; albeit probably not as severe as a 50% shrinkage.

 

[LordKano]

Are you saying Nintendo generates more revenue than PlayStation in France?

Yes.

 

[barneystuta83]

Any numbers for BotW on Switch? I'd love to know dat attach rate.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Any numbers for BotW on Switch? I'd love to know dat attach rate.

I think the numbers getting passed around are 75-80% attach rate.

 

[AdventureRacing]

The question is where to from here? If Zelda didn't get you to jump on board what reason do you have for the next few months? Even by wii U standards the switch SW line-up is terrible post launch. I think once we get to the holiday period we will see switch sales pick up but it's hard to see them not bottoming out in the next few months. How much that impacts public perception of the console remains to be seen.

 

[Moneal]

Any numbers for BotW on Switch? I'd love to know dat attach rate.

It was 75% of all Switch software. Probably real close to a 1:1 attach rate.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

I'm not expecting Switch to do well in the U.K.

Yeah not a chance imo.

 

[Hoo-doo]

Not the greatest start, but then again it's still a 300$ handheld with one game so I guess it did as well as it could.

It coming in lower than 3DS on it's opening weekend is quite something though. Didn't that thing sell abysmally until they implemented huge pricedrops? At least that's how it went in most areas.

 

[antonz]

Not the greatest start, but then again it's still a 300$ handheld with one game so I guess it did as well as it could.

It coming in lower than 3DS on it's opening weekend is quite something though. Didn't that thing sell abysmally until they implemented huge pricedrops? At least that's how it went in most areas.

3DS launched well then imploded. The implosion is what Nintendo has to try and avoid.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

The question is where to from here? If Zelda didn't get you to jump on board what reason do you have for the next few months? Even by wii U standards the switch SW line-up is terrible post launch. I think once we get to the holiday period we will see switch sales pick up but it's hard to see them not bottoming out in the next few months. How much that impacts public perception of the console remains to be seen.

Summer months are notoriously slow too.

 

[13ruce]

The question is where to from here? If Zelda didn't get you to jump on board what reason do you have for the next few months? Even by wii U standards the switch SW line-up is terrible post launch. I think once we get to the holiday period we will see switch sales pick up but it's hard to see them not bottoming out in the next few months. How much that impacts public perception of the console remains to be seen.

It won't impact public perception when that epic mario and whatever they announce at e3(smash port with extra content would be smart and pokemon stars)

Those 3 would slay if they make bundles and cut the price by 50.

 

[gtj1092]

Yes.

Everything I'm seeing is showing a vast majority of sales in France are on consoles and most of those are on Ps4/ps3 with fifa and Cod being the biggest games.

I dont think Nintendo being the biggest individual publisher translates to them being the market driver in France.

 

[Hoo-doo]

3DS launched well then imploded. The implosion is what Nintendo has to try and avoid.

I can't see them avoiding that implosion with the line-up they got planned for the next few months though. I mean, they launched with one of the biggest and best games ever made, apparently. It's not all that unlikely to go downhill from here.

 

[antonz]

I can't see them avoiding that implosion with the line-up they got planned for the next few months though. I mean, they launched with one of the biggest and best games ever made, apparently. It's not all that unlikely to go downhill from here.

I do wonder why they are opting to launch Mario Kart so late into April. I would have moved it forward a few weeks and have a rather large ad campaign with it.

 

[jackal27]

Not terrible, not great. Means people are interested, but cautious as expected.

 

[noshten]

I can't see them avoiding that implosion with the line-up they got planned for the next few months though. I mean, they launched with one of the biggest and best games ever made, apparently. It's not all that unlikely to go downhill from here.

It's a good thing Zelda isn't coming out on other devices in the near future - so to play the biggest and best game ever made - you apparently need to buy a Switch.

 

[LordKano]

Everything I'm seeing is showing a vast majority of sales in France are on consoles and most of those are on Ps4/ps3 with fifa and Cod being the biggest games.

I dont think Nintendo being the biggest individual publisher translates to them being the market driver in France.

They sell more consoles and more games. As a video game seller, they're number one in that country.
We don't have hard data for anything else.

 

[4Tran]

I do wonder why they are opting to launch Mario Kart so late into April. I would have moved it forward a few weeks and have a rather large ad campaign with it.

Nintendo is trying to avoid that horrible sales trough that the Wii U suffered. Doing so again would be disastrous.

 

[NSESN]

Summer months are notoriously slow too.

I think Splatoon 2 is positioned to cover that. If arms is successuful it should help too.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Nintendo is trying to avoid that horrible sales trough that the Wii U suffered. Doing so again would be disastrous.

Having one game per month would be nice. But you need semi big games dispersed between that. Including non-first party

Early april has Lego City. That did well on Wii U but it's 4 years later now.
Then April 11 is Yooka Laylee (or is Switch version delayed)
Sonic Mania is Srping

Then throughout the year there are games coming in between the bigger 1st party games (Mario, Splatoon, FE W, ARMS) like Sonic 2017, Minecraft, maybe DQ


Switch Absolutely needs these "other" games to do well, and make the console more attractive, despite not being exclusive.

I think Splatoon 2 is positioned to cover that. If arms is successuful it should help too.

those games can only do so much imo

 

[McMoneyman]

Having one game per month would be nice. But you need semi big games dispersed between that. Including non-first party

Early april has Lego City. That did well on Wii U but it's 4 years later now.
Then April 11 is Yooka Laylee (or is Switch version delayed)
Sonic Mania is Srping

Then throughout the year there are games coming in between the bigger 1st party games (Mario, Splatoon, FE W, ARMS) like Sonic 2017, Minecraft, maybe DQ


Switch Absolutely needs these "other" games to do well, and make the console more attractive, despite not being exclusive.



those games can only do so much imo

How many of those drive units though? Like sure maybe those titles will push some players to buy a Switch alongside let's say Zelda that they really want. But I doubt people will buy a Switch for Lego/Yooka Laylee/Sonic specifically.

 

[Hoo-doo]

It's a good thing Zelda isn't coming out on other devices in the near future - so to play the biggest and best game ever made - you apparently need to buy a Switch.

Well yeah around 80.000 people did in the UK. And that was the high-point in terms of the game's hype.

The next months though? We'll see.

 

[PSFan]

Having one game per month would be nice. But you need semi big games dispersed between that. Including non-first party

Early april has Lego City. That did well on Wii U but it's 4 years later now.
Then April 11 is Yooka Laylee (or is Switch version delayed)
Sonic Mania is Srping

Then throughout the year there are games coming in between the bigger 1st party games (Mario, Splatoon, FE W, ARMS) like Sonic 2017, Minecraft, maybe DQ


Switch Absolutely needs these "other" games to do well, and make the console more attractive, despite not being exclusive.



those games can only do so much imo

Switch version hasn't been delayed. A release date hasn't been announced yet. Just "sometime in 2017". So it probably won't drop in April. Which probably won't bode well for the Switch, since everyone will have played it on the other platforms when it does eventually release.

 

[spwolf]

They sell more consoles and more games. As a video game seller, they're number one in that country.
We don't have hard data for anything else.

hm, looking over at data that we have from 2015, PS4 likely outsold 3DS in France in 2016 as well as 2015. Games on PS4 also sold better in 2015, so it is unlikely that it changed in 2016:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/secteur/high...-console-la-plus-vendue-en-france-en-2015.php

Thats not to say that Nintendo does not have good sales in France, it does.