(long post coming - sorry to others reading the thread)
Except that the limited pool of older titles has always been an issue, and it is one that they have repeatedly answered the same way as they did in the article I quoted. I would assume that Eidos/Square simply didn't want to sign the usual GOG exclusivity clause like they did with System Shock 2 and the Thief games for what would be their obvious best selling IP for financial reasons before I would assume it has some darker more ominous meaning for GOG as a whole.
Eh...it's fair to say that publishers wanting their old games in more places than GOG does show that those publishers may not view GOG the way they did before (as "the place" to put their old games), among other things (like wanting those oldies on Steam, which is valid from their perspective). GOG is losing some exclusivity on older games, and that has been one key to their success in the past. Seems like a valid observation.
I understand that you never said there were no old titles released this year, that wasn't what I responded to. I pointed out the release list in the OP in response to your specific comment about GOG possibly having "trouble with maintaining a steady flow of classic releases.", implying that there hasn't been a steady stream. That is all.
It's actually been up and down. The summer months didn't see many pre-2005 releases, for example. Overall they can certainly average over one "classic" per week over the course of a year, and I'm one of the people who doesn't think that adding indies takes away from old releases or GOG's resources for them (it's like having the regular 1-2 classics per week from a couple years ago, plus indie/new games on top of that), but there have been some dry spells.
My personal anecdotal experience was not given as an example to try to prove that my experience was the normal experience or desire for everyone else. It clearly is not overly abnormal though, as I have seen from the numerous similar comments about multiple purchases of the same titles on both digital services. Clearly GOG felt there was and still is value in pursuing Indie games on their service despite Humble having already been releasing DRM-Free AND Steam keys for what, over two plus years, before GOG even got into Indie releases? I fail to see how Humble is posing any kind of serious impending threat to GOG and the future success of its Indie releases. Even if there was such a thread, it was a threat that already existed before GOG got into Indies, and yet they still did, and choose to make it an increasing focus of their service.
Like I said, I don't disagree with GOG releasing indies and newer games. I think it's great. But it's also a decision they made partly out of necessity, understanding that the availability of pre-2005ish games to release would diminish due to various rights or compatibility issues.
I don't see why the existence of the "threat" of HIB selling DRM-free indies/newer games with Steam keys existed before GOG got involved with the market negates or lessens any of the associated challenges or issues with GOG and HIB selling similar indies. The challenge of expanding into a new market and the reasons for expansion seem like separate things to me.
I knew you said you weren't raising an alarm, but then again that is pretty much what it sounded like, heightened serious concerns about the future of GOG. I merely gave my two cents in response that I thought brought some more context to the situations you mentioned. I agree with some of your concerns, I have repeatedly voiced some of them myself as well. I don't think we are at a tipping point at this moment though.
Even if GOG did nothing but release newer titles that had already been released on Steam and started calling them "new classics", wouldn't they still be getting the typical great GOG focus on extras and most importantly, DRM-Free? To me, DRM-Free is the desired end that I want and appreciate. I don't think Humble is ever going to really compete with GOG on that same level.
"Critical time" means something like a one-year period, and we're at the back end of it. That doesn't mean it's a tipping point, though. This is a much longer, drawn out process. GOG is actually doing quite well financially - the critical nature refers more to the plans they make today for what might be their situation in a year or two. Not imminence of what might happen to them tomorrow or the next week.
Regarding HIB, again it's about the competition for specific parts of the market. Nobody's saying that HIB and GOG are competing to sell DRM-free AAA games. The crossover is clearly in the indie market. But if you mention extras, it should be noted that a complaint about newer releases on GOG is sometimes the lack of extras or soundtracks. There are games that were in a HIB with full soundtracks, but when released on GOG they might just have a couple sampler tracks or possibly nothing at all.
I see the possibility GOG selling fully-patched, DRM-free, GOTY/complete editions of "new classics" down the road, but I don't see much incentive for the big publishers to get on board with that. Many of them prefer to use Steamworks, even for games that are currently 5+ years old. It could happen for some titles, but we have to wait and see.
I am not trying to shut down your personal opinions, I just have differing ones from yours about certain things.
In a few years? Sure, things will look differently for GOG. I doubt that they will look the same for either Steam or Humble though too. Change and the need to adapt is part of business. I don't think Humble, or its infant new store, pose the same level of threat that you seem to think they do for DRM-Free versions of new games. GOG is improving their Indie submission process, so we should see an increase of new releases with a GOG focus.
I guess we have to agree to disagree here. HIB has many games they've already bundled and will probably show up in their store eventually. Considering that a decent number of newer/indie games that GOG releases are ones that have been bundled already, DRM-free and all, that is a sizable portion of customers that have already bought the game elsewhere. GOG can still make some decent profit from these releases, and if the can actually compete from day one on newer games then it's a different story. But again, I'm talking about indie/new releases of games that were already bundled.
The availability of older games on other services was always a given for GOG, seeing as how they specifically pursued exclusivity agreements over the years. The main difference has always been DRM-Free, and Humble isn't picking up any slack for older titles whatsoever. DRM-Free is pro-consumer and there is always going to be a desire by people to control the things that they buy and not have them be a mere rental of limited access to their purchases. I think that fundamental difference is always going to be GOG's greatest strength and the basis for further interest by new customers. At this point I think that Humble is, at best, playing catch up with an vastly inferior library and site design, so I don't even see them as a viable threat to GOG's market.
Once more, the inclusion of HIB in this discussion refers specifically to the indie market - not to classics. I'm not claiming that HIB is trying to pick up slack for older titles.
I agree with your view on the benefits of DRM-free or GOG, but from what I've observed that doesn't seem to be a majority opinion outside of GOG's niche. Many people prefer the convenience and additional features of Steam to having something DRM-free (although many titles on Steam are DRM-free and can run without the client). When someone buys a game in a HIB with a DRM-free copy, Steam key, and full soundtrack, there's not much incentive to repurchase on GOG six months later.
I just think there is more context to the issue as you described it. They ARE releasing a steady stream of older titles, they have a new submission process for Indies that we have yet to see the results of, they still have the best DRM-Free service and library that Humble can't even come close to matching, they still are the superior service for those looking to control the products they buy. While I have concerns for GOG as well, I think I see things in a more positive light than you seem to have.
Regarding context - I think you're being too dismissive of the competition GOG faces with indies, such as from HIB and their store, on the basis of your personal confidence in and preference for GOG. I'm a GOG supporter, first and foremost. I believe in and love what they do. You might think I'm being negative when I'm pointing out some of the potential challenges and considerations for GOG going forward. The simple truth is that GOG has more competition in the indie/new game markets than they did when they focused solely on older games. So, they have to continue to market themselves or offer additional incentives for people to choose their store over another.
There's a rumor that GOG will be presenting a 30-day money-back guarantee for game purchases sometime soon in the case that a game doesn't run properly on someone's system and GOG support can't help them resolve it. A few sites published articles but later took them down - just read the URLs:
http://www.strategyinformer.com/new...-day-money-back-guarantee-begins-december-9th
http://m.incgamers.com/2013/12/gog-offering-money-back-guarantee-game-functionality
http://brutalgamer.com/2013/12/04/gog-com-launches-money-back-promise-on-entire-catalog/
I think that's a great gesture on their part, so I'm curious to see how people respond to it or if it makes any waves. There's no doubt that GOG offers great customer care. The hook in the past was having old games one couldn't find elsewhere. People came for the games and stayed because of the DRM-freeness and support. By this point GOG has probably attracted most of the people who care about DRM-free or old games. So, it seems they're focusing more on marketing their service and customer care. Makes sense to me, and I hope they continue to thrive, but yes a part of me feels that in the more crowded indie/new market this message might not trump the other factors (cheap bundles, Steam convenience, etc.) that people already associate with these games.
