Revelations
Banned
[360] 650k
[NDS] 635k
[PS2] 155k
[PS3] 250k
[PSP] 325k
[WII] 525k
[NDS] 635k
[PS2] 155k
[PS3] 250k
[PSP] 325k
[WII] 525k
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
(Hardware) September 2008 NPD Predictions - Closes October 10 @ 8 pm
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
LiquidMetal14
hide your water-based mammals
[360] 267k
[NDS] 534k
[PS2] 179k
[PS3] 242k
[PSP] 301k
[WII] 572k
[NDS] 534k
[PS2] 179k
[PS3] 242k
[PSP] 301k
[WII] 572k
BishopLamont said:
1. Not really. Any prediction that states PS3 > 360 or within 10k for September shows a complete lack of common sense. That holds NO water at all.
2. At least he has the order right, even if he is being overly optimistic on the 360.
3. If you aren't going to contribute, then why contibute at all. My comments were not directed towards you in the first place. What, are you stalking my posts?
Damn I just now noticed last month's results. Not too shabby for my first try.
:lol @ Pachter being worse than half of our "amatures".
The top 20 guys should get together, average out our predictions, submitt them to Webush Morgan and charge them Pachter's salary for it. They don't even have to provide us with benefits and health insurance. We'll just do a 1099 at the end of the year as outside contractors. They'll save money AND have better numbers.
:lol @ Pachter being worse than half of our "amatures".
The top 20 guys should get together, average out our predictions, submitt them to Webush Morgan and charge them Pachter's salary for it. They don't even have to provide us with benefits and health insurance. We'll just do a 1099 at the end of the year as outside contractors. They'll save money AND have better numbers.
BishopLamont
Banned
Yeah enough derailing, let's just wait till NPD day before you start laughing at people ok?jimbo said:
SuperSonic1305
Member
[360] 380k
[NDS] 540k
[PS2] 150k
[PS3] 215k
[PSP] 243k
[WII] 470k
[NDS] 540k
[PS2] 150k
[PS3] 215k
[PSP] 243k
[WII] 470k
[NDS] 640K
[WII] 560K
[360] 415K
[PSP] 260K
[PS3] 210K
[PS2] 155K
That's not what Pachter is paid to do.
As for unreasonable predictions, they occur every month. No reason to get worked up about them here. After all, there have been a number of months where the "reasonable" predictions were totally wacko compared to the real values (e.g. GTAIV month, Feb-07).
[WII] 560K
[360] 415K
[PSP] 260K
[PS3] 210K
[PS2] 155K
jimbo said:
That's not what Pachter is paid to do.
As for unreasonable predictions, they occur every month. No reason to get worked up about them here. After all, there have been a number of months where the "reasonable" predictions were totally wacko compared to the real values (e.g. GTAIV month, Feb-07).
Scott32020
Member
[360] 400K
[NDS] 550K
[PS2] 140K
[PS3] 200K
[PSP] 250K
[WII] 500K
[NDS] 550K
[PS2] 140K
[PS3] 200K
[PSP] 250K
[WII] 500K
lordfroakie
Member
[360] 450k
[NDS] 500k
[PS2] 90k
[PS3] 250k
[PSP] 125k
[WII] 590k
[NDS] 500k
[PS2] 90k
[PS3] 250k
[PSP] 125k
[WII] 590k
PseudoKirby
Banned
360 300k Over whatever the Wii has
PS3 300k Under whatever the Wii has
PS3 300k Under whatever the Wii has
[NDS] 630k
[WII] 600k
[360] 365k
[PSP] 280k
[PS3] 205k
[PS2] 160k
Jimbo,
You shouldn't laugh at "unreasonable" prediction, since that mean people will be reluctant to enter their prediction. Try to keep an open mind, and close mouth (or no laughing at people's post).
[WII] 600k
[360] 365k
[PSP] 280k
[PS3] 205k
[PS2] 160k
And "unreasonable" predictions end up as "closest to the fact" prediction.donny2112 said:
Jimbo,
You shouldn't laugh at "unreasonable" prediction, since that mean people will be reluctant to enter their prediction. Try to keep an open mind, and close mouth (or no laughing at people's post).
Psychotext
Member
Funny you should say that... in the UK the sales increased 32% on the weekend after the price cut, then 214% for a two week comparison period.Gadfly said:
When the prices get down to these levels you're not dealing with hardcore gamers foaming at the mouth to pick them up, you're into casual land where price cut info takes time to propagate and people wait to get paid etc.
Private Hoffman
Banned
Psychotext said:
To be honest, the Wii (priced at $250), is in 'casual land'...and that price was very close to the 279 pricepoint of the Arcade previously, and it didn't take off.
The price cuts will help, but the question is how much..the arcades may be selling better, but people still look at it as a gimped system, and that they have to buy extra accessories (which cost quite a lot), before they purchase it. Instead of buying the premiums or elites, buyers may now be picking up the arcades with accessories to get a slightly better deal.
While the pricepoint is in casual land (I'd argue it was close to being in casual land pricing before), the audience that is attracted to the 360 is not (yet). I just don't see the 360 exceeding 400k without a major piece of software being released and approaching Wii-like sales.
Psychotext
Member
You're assuming that the average casual gamer (and I'm not talking about the neuvo Wii style casual gamer, I'm talking about the Madden / Fifa / PES / NFS style casual gamer) has a clue about such things... or even cares. We know that the arcade / core didn't appeal to the hardcore gamer but I think it's fairly clear with the increased sales rate of the low end model now that it's appealing to a demographic that is either uninformed or doesn't care about such things (it never worried them with the PS2 last gen).Private Hoffman said:
The audience appeal thing is another argument entirely... and enters the new casual vs old casual arena again.
tahrikmili
Member
[360] 480K
[NDS] 540K
[PS2] 140K
[PS3] 240K
[PSP] 260K
[WII] 460K
First time I'm trying this, let's see what happens. :lol
[NDS] 540K
[PS2] 140K
[PS3] 240K
[PSP] 260K
[WII] 460K
First time I'm trying this, let's see what happens. :lol
donny2112 said:
Exactly. Double would be 488k. Now if it follows short lived spikes, a reasonable post price drop trend could look something like this OVER last month's numbers.
1st week - 100 - 150% (since I'm sure it was over double but under triple for them to make that statement).
2nd week - 75% - 100%
3rd week - 50% - 75%
4th week - 30% - 50%
5th week - 30% - 50%
Or an average of betwen 57% and 85% increase for the 5 week period. I just went with 75% over the entire month.
Of course it could also blow it out of the water or increase over time before it tapers off too.
But either way I don't expect anything lower than 57% increase, which on 244k, would be 383k. That should be the low end. Anything lower than that would be a major dissapointment for the first month of a $100 price drop.
Private Hoffman
Banned
jimbo said:
Prepare to be pretty disappointed, IMHO.
I think your expectations are too high.
comedy bomb
Banned
[360] 345K
[NDS] 558K
[PS2] 148K
[PS3] 202K
[PSP] 260K
[WII] 520K
[NDS] 558K
[PS2] 148K
[PS3] 202K
[PSP] 260K
[WII] 520K
Private Hoffman said:
Maybe, we'll see. Either way they are in line and this is what any "healthy" console should do.
But I will point out something. People said the same about the 360 in Japan, ToV vs price drop week. Price drop week(28k) beat ToV week(24k). In the US, Halo 3 increased sales by 90%(277k to 528k). MGS4 also increased PS3 sales dramatically by 94%(209k to 406k).
Granted the 360 didn't have a shortage previously and no big game release like IU in Japan, but I am of the opinion that a $100 price drop does more than a big game release for sales of a WELL ESTABLISHED console. So 75% is actually below what both Halo 3 and MGS4 did. And if GOW2 came out at the same time as the price drop I'd feel very comfortable predicting over 600k.
To be honest with you, the only thing I may be over-estimating is the WII. It has been on a constant decline since MARCH. I may lower that number before the thread closes. So has the PS3 actually for the past couple of months. I may make a small adjustment to that as well.
Private Hoffman
Banned
jimbo said:
PS3 being pushed to 400k was the return of BC, a new bundle, and MGS4.
I'm of the opinion that a $100 price drop of the least desired Xbox SKU does less than a killer app title like MGS4 or Halo 3 releasing (strictly looking at the short term). Especially when a price drop of the most desired SKU hardly had any affect whatsoever.
I think this price drop may have more of an affect in October and November than it does in September, but it's going to be hard to gauge just how much due to:
(1) Whether MS can keep the supply up with the demand.
(2) Whether the increases are in line with traditional Holiday bumps, or if its more signifiant than that (in other words, if MS can increase YoY sales during the Holiday period)
I actually believe the more interesting thing to look at regarding the price cuts is what it will do for the Xbox 360 starting in early 2009.
jimbo said:
Halo 3 and MGS4 were both in five week months compared to the previous month being four weeks. Therefore, you can't directly compare the monthly totals. That's why I tend to work in the weekly average space to allow more consistent comparisons.
Halo 3 Bump:
Aug-07 - 69K / week
Sep-07 - 106k / week (+54%)
MGS4 Bump:
May-08 - 52K / week
Jun-08 - 81K / week (+56%)
As a more relevant comparison, here's the $50 price drop for last year for the 360.
~$50 price drop Bump:
Jul-07 - 43K / week
Aug-07 - 69K / week (+60%)
Private Hoffman said:
Let's be clear about something. It's had a price drop across the board and I am betting on the Premium at $299 still being the lead SKU in sales. Not the Arcade.
But that's fine, I respect your opinion.
I don't however agree to using the $50 price drop of the premium for your analysis as hard historic evidence. It's been said before but I will repeat it. It was a clearance sale, it was one of the SKUs, MS themselves didn't consider it a price drop, the new 60GB was introduced at the same time, it wasn't advertised and it wasn't $299.
Apples and oranges.
donny2112 said:
I was wondering about it weekly too right after I posted that but I didn't have the weekly break down for those time periods. Thanks for going into the details and doing the grunt work donny
.Either way, the bolded part pretty much states what I am believing in cold hard numbers, and that was a $50 price drop. We are talking $100.
Price drop > game release.
According to history.
Private Hoffman
Banned
jimbo said:Hey donny was the price drop 07 also a 5 week month?
If so I think I am begining to see a trend of WHEN publishers like to release big games and price drops...Makes for nice headlines.
4 weeks.
There are a few factors working against price drop having a significant effect:jimbo said:[/B]
I was wondering about it weekly too right after I posted that but I didn't have the weekly break down for those time periods. Thanks for going into the details and doing the grunt work donny
Either way, the bolded part pretty much states what I am believing in cold hard numbers, and that was a $50 price drop. We are talking $100.
Price drop > game release.
According to history.
1) Economy. Everybody I know of is careful what they're spending money on these days.
2) September is one of the slowest months.
3) An argument can be made that without a change in perception/new games, 360 user base in US is not going to grow that much higher. If you already have a 360, it doesn't matter if the price has dropped $50 or $100.
BTW, just in case you are wondering, I have a vested interest to see 360 does better. But I also want to be realistic.
jimbo said:Hey donny was the price drop 07 also a 5 week month?
If so I think I am begining to see a trend of WHEN publishers like to release big games and price drops...Makes for nice headlines.
Not all the increase in 360 sales in Aug 07 can be attributed to price drop. Many people got it because of Halo 3.
Gadfly said:
A month away? Yeah, there would be some who bought a 360 in August 2007 for Halo 3's launch on September 25 just like there were surely some people who bought a 360 in August 2007 for GTAIV's eventual release. I wouldn't expect it to have had a significant impact on total sales for that month, though.
B-Rad Lascelle
Banned
I like Slurmer's numbers... ditto me for these.Slurmer said:
Choke on the Magic
Banned
[360] 205K
[DS] 600K
[PS2] 135K
[PS3] 220K
[PSP] 260K
[WII] 493K
[DS] 600K
[PS2] 135K
[PS3] 220K
[PSP] 260K
[WII] 493K
Gadfly said:
1. Please. The economy has sucked for like the past 5 years and it hasn't stopped the videogame industry from posting record sales and growing. In fact CHEAPER price helps that argument. It's been selling at its previous price point just fine....so wouldnt a cheaper console sell better in a tight economy?
2. I agree, which is why I may lower the other systems.
3. The 360 already has a good image/perception in the US. It doesn't need a change. But I take it your are talking about casual/non-gamers. Points to PS2, which is STILL selling. Those guys are still out there, buying traditional consoles, and traditional games. That user base hasn't gone anywhere. The Wii just brought some new people on board, it didn't transfom gamers into non-gamers. Well maybe a few diehard Nintendo fanboys that never buy a non-Nintendo console, but not everyone else.
Gadfly said:
How many times has the line of thinking that people buy consoles for games ahead of their release been proven wrong. I lost track.
Maybe a week at the most.
BishopLamont
Banned
Haven't we learnt anything from GTAIV? The holy grail of HD systems moving no systems on launch. People do infact buy systems before game releases, not the other way around.jimbo said:
BishopLamont said:
What? So the fact that GTA4 didn't move a lot of system is proof that people bought it ahead of time?
Both Halo 3 and MGS4 and many, many, many other huge, high quality games have moved systems the month they were released. GTA4 had more to do with it not being an exclusive, than anything else. Heck just look a few posts above. Donny and I have already posted the numbers for Halo 3 and MGS4.
Please don't start this argument. It's been done way too many times. It is a well established fact by now: Big game releases DO sell consoles and they move them WHEN they come out.
I figure someone who frequents Media Create threads, a place where you can see EXACTLY how this happens and how quickly it happens(a period of a week or two at most after release, let alone a month) would have learned that by now.
BishopLamont
Banned
Halo 3 didn't move a ton of units on launch, a significant portion of the people who bought Halo 3 already had the system, regarding MGS4, I'd say it has alot more to do with 80 gig consoles more than the game. Japan != American market. I'll say it again, Big games DO NOT move units on launch. GTA IV says it all.jimbo said:
Tell me those "many, many, many huge games" that moved consoles on launch? If Halo 3 and MGS 4 are the only games you can come up with, I think that says enough.
Don't me wrong, ofcourse games do move consoles, but not on launch. Of the people that do get it on launch, it is too insignificant to make a big impact.