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[Cipherr]

I think that if you look at the Democratic party you will notice that mathematics has always been a tool commonly used from time to time. It's not surprising that the establishment would band together to oppose us. Ever since this campaign started we have had to fight against the DNC and its math in order to get to where we are now. No one (math included) thought we would get this far, and we aren't going to stop now. If you look past the math, there are a lot of people out there who are tired of the corruption and the math put to use by these large corporations and big banks. We are not going away, and intend to take this all the way to the convention floor where we expect that our platform will sway the superdelegates and their math to our side.

 

[To Far Away Times]

I'll do my part and vote for him.

 

[Malvolio]

Yeah Harry, but Bobby in June of '68. We remember.

 

[A Link to the Past]

I think that if you look at the Democratic party you will notice that mathematics has always been a tool commonly used from time to time. It's not surprising that the establishment would band together to oppose us. Ever since this campaign started we have had to fight against the DNC and its math in order to get to where we are now. No one (math included) thought we would get this far, and we aren't going to stop now. If you look past the math, there are a lot of people out there who are tired of the corruption and the math put to use by these large corporations and big banks. We are not going away, and intend to take this all the way to the convention floor where we expect that our platform will sway the superdelegates and their math to our side.

Is the eyeroll meant to convey that it's a joke

If not, doesn't convincing the superdelegates entail that Bernie supporters want the will of the people to be ignored?

 

[massoluk]

Yes I understand what you're saying, I'm pointing out that if you begin from the position that Bernie should drop out, which is explicitly what I'm accusing you of doing, and then con yourself into back-filling whether or not he has a chance, you'll come up with some metrics that define whether or not he has a chance and come up with the answer no.

Hillary Clinton did not have a chance on June 1st, 2008. She did not have a chance on May 28th, 2008. She certainly did not have a chance on June 4th, 2008. Bernie does not have a chance now. No one is compelled to drop out the second they don't have a chance, and more importantly, it doesn't matter when they drop out.

Yeah, the deluded Bernie fans who think he's going to win are annoying, but it's also annoying--maybe even moreso--to see Hillary fans yell and yell until they're blue about something that doesn't matter. You won. Magnanimity in victory, not shitting on the loser because he won't admit he's a loser in strong enough terms for you.

I'm guilty of this, sorry to say. On the other hands, what got on my nerve more wasn't whether Bernie has the right to stay in. It's that while he stayed in, he continued to feed his supporters these anti-establishment and anti-Hillary rhetorics that's not really helping the Democrats.

Certainly Hillary did attack Obama, and some people will point it's even more vicious and there are "Hillary-or-Bust" as well, but I digress on the intensity and fervor

 

[deadlast]

Math has truly treated the Sanders campaign unfairly during this primary.

 

[ibyea]

I am fine with Sanders staying irrespective of his chance of winning. In the end it really doesn't matter, and I am fine with having all the votes counted. *shrug*

 

[ibyea]

Bernie did a good job at one point of pulling Hillary left, but I don't feel that much of his recent efforts have been successful at that (I don't know that I believe that his recent efforts have been about that).

My perspective is the same. I don't think his recent efforts have been good.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Personally, I like Bernie more than I dislike Bernie. Voted for him even. The reason why I want him to drop out is not inherently because he doesn't have a chance, but because I want to see a full-force attack against Trump sooner rather than later, and I'm stressed by both the possibility of Trump gaining traction from the continued competition between Bernie and Hillary as well as from the concern that Bernie may not stay 100% true to his vow to keep a Republican out of the White House. Am I being kind of paranoid? Yes, maybe even very. It's less about me wanting Hillary to be the winner and more about me wanting the convention be over, regardless of who wins.

This is chicken little stuff, there is no evidence that the timing of the general election campaign start matters. Evidence suggests that campaign effects are minimal general, that they decline quickly, and that most of them wash out in the tug of war between campaigns. Trump isn't accumulating any kind of structural advantage and there's more than enough time between June 7th and the election, or the convention and the election, to articulate policy proposals, campaign in states of interest, debate Trump, etc. It's not like the more ads you run now the more votes you permanently get. Persuasion doesn't work that way, it's not a powerful brainwashing where the first person to get you got you, it's a constant fight for attention right up until the last day--and there's little evidence that very many people are persuaded in any real sense versus simply mobilized/demobilized, something that requires even less time to do.

 

[cpp_is_king]

In case people haven't figured it out yet, he's holding on because he's secretly hoping clinton gets indicted and it bombs her campaign, and he gets the shoe in by default.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

In case people haven't figured it out yet, he's holding on because he's secretly hoping clinton gets indicted and it bombs her campaign, and he gets the shoe in by default.

Of course if Hillary gets indicted, all signs are that the Democrats would pick Joe Biden to replace her.

That being said, I think a majority of Bernie supporters would be fine with Biden. (I would.)

 

[cpp_is_king]

Of course if Hillary gets indicted, all signs are that the Democrats would pick Joe Biden to replace her.

That being said, I think a majority of Bernie supporters would be fine with Biden. (I would.)

Yes, but if she gets indicted before the convention, different story. I mean, there's only one candidate left running at that point. Or even if she stays in the race, every single superdelegate could flip.

I mean, Bernie is pretty insane anyway, but that's really the only possible explanation.

 

[mariachi507]

My math shows Hillary has a 141 2/3% chance compared to Bernie's 8 1/3% chance.

The numbers don't lie.

 

[madstarr12]

I don't understand why Bernie continually states that "She'll need superdelegates to get a majority of over 2383", when she'll likely have a majority of PLEDGED delegates by the end of Tuesday. She has around 1770, there are 4051 total pledged delegates, she'll just need around 256 to reach a majority of pledged delegates, which should give Superdelegates enough of a reason to keep supporting her at the convention. Stating that the "polls show I do better than her VS Trump" isn't a good reason for Superdelegates to switch sides when she has the majority of pledged delegates. We know how wrong polls can be, just look at past election polls of surveys near this time of year. They had Carter beating Reagan during May in some polls, and Clinton losing against Bush back in 92.

 

[Monocle]

This whole "math" things sounds like something an establishment elitist like Hillary would use. She truly has no shame.

 

[Chichikov]

This is chicken little stuff, there is no evidence that the timing of the general election campaign start matters. Evidence suggests that campaign effects are minimal general, that they decline quickly, and that most of them wash out in the tug of war between campaigns. Trump isn't accumulating any kind of structural advantage and there's more than enough time between June 7th and the election, or the convention and the election, to articulate policy proposals, campaign in states of interest, debate Trump, etc. It's not like the more ads you run now the more votes you permanently get. Persuasion doesn't work that way, it's not a powerful brainwashing where the first person to get you got you, it's a constant fight for attention right up until the last day--and there's little evidence that very many people are persuaded in any real sense versus simply mobilized/demobilized, something that requires even less time to do.

I think most of it is indeed just chicken littling, and yeah, people were freaking out about Hillary in 2008 as well. I think it's pretty understandable, elections are important, the stakes are big and even though we say it every fucking cycle, this one might be bigger than usual, that makes people really invested and really nervous about the outcome.

I think there might be some fear that Bernie will not play ball even after the primaries are done which I can see have some impact, though I don't think it's terribly likely scenario.

 

[Boney]

Sanders has said his plan is to go to the convention and try to flip superdelegates to his side. Until he actually drops out, I'm going to take him at his word. His rhetoric has also gotten worse as the primary season comes to an end.

So? He's gonna make the argument that he is a stronger candidate based on his much better numbers when it comes to independents and based on the polls of him beating Trump. Obviously nobody at the convention is gonna take that seriously enough to overturn the majority vote and he's not going in with a bomb strapped to himself demanding delegates to change.
Him being in the running should be used by the Clinton's to their advantage, why refuse a debate that's gonna provide a massive national media blast about it.

Plus even with the projected loss in California, seeing how the most liberal state votes is super important and informative and let's the people there be able to enforce their right to vote despite it not being election defining.

Stump is damn right about his post and everybody chanting for him to resign needs to cool off and just be content with the current results.

 

[D.Lo]

It's pretty simple.

Hillary will have a majority of the pledged delegates on June 7th, but Hillary will not have a majority of delegates on June 7th.

Superdelegates, which only pledge at the convention, are the balance, and in theory exist to flip a tight race to the candidate who would fare better in the general election.

Bern looks better in the general against Trump according to most polls, so 'Superdelegates should all support him to assure victory' is the current Sanders supporter argument.

The superdelegates almost all signed up for Clinton before the entire race even started, on the basis she was the strongest candidate in the general election. Based on current polls, if their reasoning held up, they should now change their vote and flip it to Bernie.

This obviously won't happen. But that's the argument. Sanders will simply not be mathematically eliminated until the superdelegates cast their vote at the convention, so Hillary will not ever be the presumptive nominee, she will be ahead in pledged delegates but will be handed the nomination by superdelegates.

Yes I understand what you're saying, I'm pointing out that if you begin from the position that Bernie should drop out, which is explicitly what I'm accusing you of doing, and then con yourself into back-filling whether or not he has a chance, you'll come up with some metrics that define whether or not he has a chance and come up with the answer no.

Hillary Clinton did not have a chance on June 1st, 2008. She did not have a chance on May 28th, 2008. She certainly did not have a chance on June 4th, 2008. Bernie does not have a chance now. No one is compelled to drop out the second they don't have a chance, and more importantly, it doesn't matter when they drop out.

Yeah, the deluded Bernie fans who think he's going to win are annoying, but it's also annoying--maybe even moreso--to see Hillary fans yell and yell until they're blue about something that doesn't matter. You won. Magnanimity in victory, not shitting on the loser because he won't admit he's a loser in strong enough terms for you.

Nailed it.

 

[Maledict]

Of course if Hillary gets indicted, all signs are that the Democrats would pick Joe Biden to replace her.

That being said, I think a majority of Bernie supporters would be fine with Biden. (I would.)

Which unfortunately shows how little a lot of people have looked at her and his policy proposals. Biden is to the right of Hillary and Obama - always has been, always will. Anyone thinking that Hillary isn't left progressive enough would be shocked by Biden!

 

[Loudninja]

People were fine with him staying in if he stop attacks.

That did not happen.

 

[excelsiorlef]

People were fine with him staying in if he stop attacks.

That did not happen.

Seriously, I mean look at tonight Clinton had a fantastic speech destroying Trump and Sanders gives one sentence to say Trump bad (without any specifics) while spending the rest, a few paragraphs, attacking Clinton.

 

[Abounder]

Hillary's foreign policy is worthy of attacking, after all not even Obama agrees with her policies like the Syria no-fly zone. It was a strong speech but a nothing burger for the GE as Stump and others point out - it's still too early. Not to mention she backed out of the Cali debate where she could have had a wider audience, and Bernie will undoubtedly help the Democrats win vs Trump soon enough even if Bernie loses badly in the last primary. Hillary is an infinitely superior candidate than Trump, and Bernie's said as much.

 

[MIMIC]

Because Hillary was millions of votes closer to Obama in 2008 than Bernie is to Hillary. And Hillary actually had many cases of dominating the popular vote despite delegate count in 2008.

It's funny how people throw this math argument around, even though Hillary's math still had her losing back in 2008. Her being closer is irrelevant. It was almost a mathematical certainty that she would lose.

 

[kirblar]

It's funny how people throw this math argument around, even though Hillary's math still had her losing back in 2008. Her being closer is irrelevant. It was almost a mathematical certainty that she would lose.

She kept the lights on but she wasn't actively contesting once he clinched.

The problem with Bernie is that he's going to keep doing Bernie things because he's exactly as Frank described back in '91.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Bernie thought us that the establishment is awful and that the will of the voters should not be overridden.

And now he's trying to use a bunch of establishment people to overturn the will of the voters.

Fuck Bernie. But what can you really expect from a career politician?

 

[Jinkies]

Hillary supporters are quite a pompous group. Such a stark difference from Obama and Bernie supporters.

This is the kind of attitude that Clinton inspires. It will be interesting to see how that changes the Democratic Party.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Hillary supporters are quite a pompous group. Such a stark difference from Obama and Bernie supporters.

This is the kind of attitude that Clinton inspires. It will be interesting to see how that changes the Democratic Party.

l o l

Clinton supporters got smug because they got tired of being called neoliberal shills for 8 months.

 

[David H Wong]

Hillary supporters are quite a pompous group. Such a stark difference from Obama and Bernie supporters.

This is the kind of attitude that Clinton inspires. It will be interesting to see how that changes the Democratic Party.

I'd say Sanders fans are 100 times worse in that regard. His supporters have been nearly as toxic as Trump's these last few months.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Hillary supporters are quite a pompous group. Such a stark difference from Obama and Bernie supporters.

This is the kind of attitude that Clinton inspires. It will be interesting to see how that changes the Democratic Party.

You think so?

I find the more graceful group is the one that's winning. Obama in 08, Clinton in 16.

Most Sanders supporters I know are being absolute pissants right now and I say this as someone who voted for him.

I say "right now" but it's actually been like this throughout the entire primary. Even my being skeptical of his chances of winning have earned me a lot of ire from friends who, frankly, haven't paid any attention to politics up to this point. I've been unironically called a cynic, corporatist, centrist and shill. Reminder: I voted for Sanders.

Hillary supporters aren't the ones who spam my facebook feed with dumb shit like this

(btw this dumb shit counted superdelegates, I guess they're ok now. also lol "even if they break even" how did that work out asshole)

 

[User 463088]

l o l

Clinton supporters got smug because they got tired of being called neoliberal shills for 8 months.

Don't forget I'm also a corporate whore. And corrupt. And an oligarch. And basically a Republican. I've been quite busy...

 

[davepoobond]

Don't forget I'm also a corporate whore. And corrupt. And an oligarch. And basically a Republican. I've been quite busy...

ur a gd neocon. a fkin neoconnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn feel the bernnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

 

[User 463088]

ur a gd neocon

That too! So busy. My email server is just full of invitations to subvert democracy.

Bernie will quit when he wants to quit. He can do it with class, or he can drag it out for as long as he likes. It's his decision to make. After Tuesday, his campaign is no longer relevant to determining who our nominee will be. I wish, for his supporters sake, that he ends his campaign and helps fight for the things he stands for.

 

[Bel Marduk]

Hillary Clinton will win the nomination but Sanders and his supporters are putting up one hell of a fight.

According to the new Los Angeles Times poll, Sanders is leading Clinton in California.

 

[itschris]

Hillary Clinton will win the nomination but Sanders and his supporters are putting up one hell of a fight.

According to the new Los Angeles Times poll, Sanders is leading Clinton in California.

It's a little misleading to say that without qualifications. She has a 10-point lead with likely voters; it's only with all registered voters that Sanders is leading by 1 point. Likely voters results are the ones that are the main focus and are actually used by polling aggregators, as you can see here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nia_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-california-democratic-presidential-primary

They both count this poll as Clinton+10, using the likely voters number. The Los Angeles Times is the unusual one in this instance for putting so much focus on the registered voters result. Likely voter models exist for a reason. Of course, it's always possible that Sanders will actually beat the polls and win (e.g., Michigan), but usually the polling aggregates call the right winner.

 

[Particle Physicist]

Hillary supporters are quite a pompous group. Such a stark difference from Obama and Bernie supporters.

This is the kind of attitude that Clinton inspires. It will be interesting to see how that changes the Democratic Party.

FYI, most of Obama supporters during his presidential runs are now Hillary supporters during her current run.

 

[Clefargle]

FYI, most of Obama supporters during his presidential runs are now Hillary supporters during her current run.

Yup this is me

 

[Kevinroc]

Yup this is me

Me too. Supported Obama '08. Won't have a problem voting Clinton '16.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Hillary Clinton will win the nomination but Sanders and his supporters are putting up one hell of a fight.

According to the new Los Angeles Times poll, Sanders is leading Clinton in California.

Come on, you're too good to fall for these registered voter polls. It's incredibly bizarre for anyone to be using anything but likely voter models when you're days away from the election.

 

[And_Gignac]

Going by hard math, he has a chance. Once you consider the subjective variables, from which math is not a part of, he has no chance. So this argument and the "lololol math is establishment" provocation are really silly.

Sanders is banking on leaving his stain all over politics, I presume. He is doing a magnificent job at that, to the dismay and rage of the neoliberal consensus.

 

[kirblar]

Going by hard math, he has a chance. Once you consider the subjective variables, from which math is not a part of, he has no chance. So this argument and the "lololol math is establishment" provocation are really silly.

Sanders is banking on leaving his stain all over politics, I presume. He is doing a magnificent job at that, to the dismay and rage of the neoliberal consensus.

I must have missed where polling was subjective.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Going by hard math, he has a chance.

I guess you have until Tuesday to make this claim. Unless we're going to go with the "Superdelegates can change their minds!" narrative.

 

[Korigama]

FYI, most of Obama supporters during his presidential runs are now Hillary supporters during her current run.

Yup this is me

Me too. Supported Obama '08. Won't have a problem voting Clinton '16.

Can add myself here as well.

 

[Cerium]

Can add myself here as well.

And me.

Still would vote Obama for a third term if I could.

 

[teruterubozu]

Of course if Hillary gets indicted, all signs are that the Democrats would pick Joe Biden to replace her.

That being said, I think a majority of Bernie supporters would be fine with Biden. (I would.)

So much hack analysis around here.

 

[Cuburt]

Not if Bernie hires Terrence Howard as a Math Terryology advisor for his campaign.

 

[mclem]

Bernie is on a narrow bridge with Ninja Gaiden Falcons descending on him while the flying fish from Super Mario Bros. are coming up below him and Hammer Bros. are throwing hammers from above him. Is there a chance he could get through the bridge to his destination? Yes. Is that path clear? Fuck no.

He'd only really be screwed if Medusa Heads were involved.

 

[mclem]

Hillary supporters aren't the ones who spam my facebook feed with dumb shit like this

(btw this dumb shit counted superdelegates, I guess they're ok now. also lol "even if they break even" how did that work out asshole)

It also carefully ignores the fact that Washington was a caucus state; California's a straight electoral primary.

 

[kmag]

The numbers aren't there, but that's completely irrelevant. He's banking on there being an indictment.

All the talk about superdelegates switching or a "narrow path to victory" is BS, and he knows it. Its a just a justification to stay in the race in case Hillary is forced to withdraw.

If Clinton is forced to drop out, then Biden will be the nominee. Clinton and the Superdelegates will take the safe option in that scenario. People are forgetting the professional politicians are more than able to do the calculus and in an emergency situation where Clinton is removed for legal reasons, they're not going to go with a candidate as patently unvetted as Sanders.

 

[thebloo]

If Clinton is forced to drop out, then Biden will be the nominee. Clinton and the Superdelegates will take the safe option in that scenario. People are forgetting the professional politicians are more than able to do the calculus and in an emergency situation where Clinton is removed for legal reasons, they're not going to go with a candidate as patently unvetted as Sanders.

Since I don't think HRC will be forced to drop out, it's just a theoretical scenario, but I'd be willing to take a bet. If Hillary is out, Bernie gets it. It would be stupid, self-destructive and unfair otherwise. Even the RNC stood by the will of their voters.

 

[jim-jam bongs]

Honestly, I really like Sanders, and as does my wife who can actually vote in the US. I'd have loved to have seen Sanders vs Clinton vs Someone Who Is Not Actually A Giant Piece of Shit Who Would Destroy America, because I really think Bernie would have stood a chance. As it is though, going with the safer nominee to ensure that Lord Voldemort is defeated seems like the best option.