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[Airbus Jr]

IHS Markit analyst Piers Harding-Rolls has told Games Industry that he expects Sony to edge out Microsoft when next-gen consoles launch in 2020.

Harding-Rolls, whose 2019 predictions were almost entirely on point, believes that although the PlayStation 5 is likely to outsell the Xbox Series X next year, both consoles will probably sell more units at launch than they did back in 2013.



He explained:

I expect PS5 to outsell Xbox Series X in 2020, but for both platforms to sell more consoles at launch than both the PS4 and Xbox One did back in 2013. One new factor for this upcoming generation is the impact of backwards compatibility on brand loyalty and audience transition. I think we’ll see less brand switching as a result.
A high price point may prompt Microsoft to follow through with a dual-pronged product strategy and release a less powerful, cheaper version of its next-gen platform during the launch window. I don’t expect Sony to follow this product strategy at launch so this approach would give Xbox more go-to-market flexibility although it would also add complexity around marketing and consumer education.

Harding-Rolls added that he expects Sony to launch its next-gen PS VR device by 2021 at the earliest.

“If Facebook can make sure the Oculus Quest supply chain is well stocked through 2020, it has a very strong chance of being the best-selling ‘high-end’ consumer headset through the year outperforming Sony’s PS VR,” he continued. “I’d be interested to hear if Valve is considering a port of Half-Life: Alyx to PlayStation platforms for use with the PS VR, as that could act as a significant differentiator for Sony during the next-gen console battle.”

What do our readers think of these predictions?

[Source: Games Industry]

 

[ethomaz]

Shocked.

Sony consoles always sold more than MS consoles at launch

 

[Grinchy]

Maybe they can sell 30% more units while Microsoft offers 30% more hardware.

 

[Nemesis Prime]

No matter what MS do I don’t see them outselling the PS5, but their goal should never be that, it should be to close the gap

 

[Ten_Fold]

I won't be surprised nobody should, I think it won't be as big of a gap as this gen, but Sony will probably be on top again.

 

[Fake]

Based on actual instal base is kinda obvious.

 

[Insane Metal]

Maybe they can sell 30% more units while Microsoft offers 30% more hardware.

Ouch lol

 

[FranXico]

The thing of real note here is the analysts interest in VR.

 

[MoreJRPG]

No matter what MS do I don’t see them outselling the PS5, but their goal should never be that, it should be to close the gap

I don't either, they have no chance of outselling the PS5. The PS3 was a complete disaster and it still outsold the 360 when it was all said and done. I do expect them to preform better next gen though, too many good things about Xbox not to.

 

[SleepDoctor]

In other news.... water is wet

 

[StreetsofBeige]

The same analyst who said PSVR would sell 1.6M units in 2016, when it took much longer.

PlayStation VR - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Sales[edit]
As of February 19, 2017, PlayStation VR had sold over 915,000 units. Andrew House, the President and Global CEO of Sony Computer Entertainment (SCE), the company behind the PlayStation VR, stated that the sales of the VR were far beyond expectations.[38][39] On June 5, 2017, the number of PlayStation VR units sold had passed 1 million.[40] Sony announced that the PlayStation VR had sold over 2 million units and 12.2 million games on December 3, 2017.[41] On August 16th, 2018, Sony announced that PlayStation VR had sold-through more than 3 million units and 21.9 million games worldwide as of August 16, 2018.[42] As of 3 March 2019, PlayStation VR has sold-through more than 4.2 million units.[2]

PlayStation VR To Get 64% of Market Share in 2016 With 1.6M Units Sold, Says Analyst

According to IHS Technology's games analyst, PlayStation VR will get 64% of market share in 2016 with 1.6 million units sold by the end of the year.

wccftech.com

IHS Technology's Director of Games Piers Harding-Rolls predicts that, even with the October launch, PlayStation VR will dominate the market share with 64% of the installed base in 2016 (that's not counting mobile VR, obviously), translating in 1.6 million units sold. This is consistent with our previous report from SuperData Research, which suggested sales of approximately 1.9 units at a time when PlayStation VR was still pinned for a launch in the first half of the year, though their estimate on market share is drastically different.

 

[The Alien]

I want this job.

This guys telling us the console that sold 2x is gonna sell more than its competitor?



Duh.

 

[MiyazakiHatesKojima]

 

[JustP_Gaming]

No matter what MS do I don’t see them outselling the PS5, but their goal should never be that, it should be to close the gap

No Thier goal should be to make as much money as possible, luckily they have things in place that don't solely depend on console sales.

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

No Thier goal should be to make as much money as possible, luckily they have things in place that don't solely depend on console sales.

If you want money, the best source is mobile games. Console is about stable income, not mountains of cash.

 

[JustP_Gaming]

If you want money, the best source is mobile games. Console is about stable income, not mountains of cash.

My point is they have Xbox Live, Gamepass and the soon to be announced Xbox Game Streaming (Xcloud) all of which could be accessed via cell phone. No console needed. Again to my point console sales are but a piece of the puzzle now, not the only piece.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

If you want money, the best source is mobile games. Console is about stable income, not mountains of cash.

I'm surprised the console makers haven't tried branching off a separate gaming division to try to cash in on mobile. All you need is one big hit and the money flows in like a bank vault. Nintendo's Pokemon Go is a good example.

If some of these (formerly) no-name companies are able to get mobile gaming up and running, surely MS, Nintendo and Sony can too.

 

[demigod]

I'm surprised the console makers haven't tried branching off a separate gaming division to try to cash in on mobile. All you need is one big hit and the money flows in like a bank vault. Nintendo's Pokemon Go is a good example.

If some of these (formerly) no-name companies are able to get mobile gaming up and running, surely MS, Nintendo and Sony can too.

Nintendo and Sony has, MS hasn’t unless you count minecraft.

 

[Klayzer]

Nintendo and Sony has, MS hasn’t unless you count minecraft.

Just look up the ridiculous amount of money Sony's Fate mobile game makes. It unbelievable how profitable it is.

 

[Jason28]

No shit, sherlock

 

[Bkdk]

It's pretty much expected, although for me this is the first time since MS release XBOX that I'm so much more interested for MS' lineup than Sony's and it's focus back on PC games is exactly what I want for me.

 

[Derktron]

No shit Sherlock. Nothing will change. Microsoft has made its mark into their entire existence with Xbox One.

 

[Silent Viper]

Yup. PS5 will have true exclusives which will only work on PS5. So you have a good reason to pick up PS5.

MS will release their games everywhere from PC to old Xbox ones and cloud day and date with Series X.

So you don't need seriesX to enjoy Xbox games. It's a high end option for hardcore console gamers.

 

[too much eslim]

Don't see MS outselling either. The Sony fandom is too strong.

 

[Lort]

I'm surprised the console makers haven't tried branching off a separate gaming division to try to cash in on mobile. All you need is one big hit and the money flows in like a bank vault. Nintendo's Pokemon Go is a good example.

If some of these (formerly) no-name companies are able to get mobile gaming up and running, surely MS, Nintendo and Sony can too.

Microsoft has Minecraft, Minecraft Earth, Forza street, gears pop, halo spartan assault...

There will be many more in a couple of years.

 

[Virex]

 

[Lort]

Don't see MS outselling either. The Sony fandom is too strong.

In the previous generation, I would say xbox 360 won ... it sold far more games ( this is THE most important statistic for console owners and game developers), It had the best exclusives and the best services ... but lets say technically the ps3 outsold it ( around the time the xbox one came out)... that was going from a winning position of 5 to 1 ... and they lost ... or almost lost the sales race. A monumental screw up by anyone’s terms and unlikely to be repeated ... however at the moment the sales ratio is 2 to 1 so whilst it would be unlikely Microsoft wins ... they will if Sony screws up only half as bad as in the ps3 era.

 

[Investor9872]

MS doesn't need to outsell Sony to be viable. If they manage to stay within 20% - 30% of Sony, that's a great job. Competition is good.

 

[kevin_trinh]

In other new the sky is blue

 

[it_wasn't_me]

I hope Switch will outsold XSX and Lockart too

 

[meirl]

I hope Switch will outsold XSX and Lockart too

why do you "hope" that? because XSX is not from sony? lol the more home consoles get sold, the better. for everyone.

Yup. PS5 will have true exclusives which will only work on PS5. So you have a good reason to pick up PS5.

MS will release their games everywhere from PC to old Xbox ones and cloud day and date with Series X.

So you don't need seriesX to enjoy Xbox games. It's a high end option for hardcore console gamers.

at launch? lol also, PC gaming is not very popular, there are not many PC gamers who like to play console games on PC.. (thats why microsoft is publishing those on PC), same for Sony, they are too releasing their games on PC now, death stranding, shenmue, horizon, etc.
literally no one - except in this forum - would say that he plays exclusive games on PS4 but not on xbox, because they are on PC, because the ps4 ones are also on pc mostly..
console gaming is mostly about convenience! just press download and play or put in the disc and play.. no driver crap, no DRM denuvo crap! no checking the configuration etc... nowadays most games run like shit on pc, they are not optimized, they crash a lot of times and especially DRM will make it horrible to play on PC those console games..

so, this argument "huehuehuehue xbox gamez also come to pc huehuehuehue not buying an xbox because of that" is invalid and mostly used by people, who wouldn't by an xbox anyways and microsoft knows that. if that wouldn't be the case, microsoft would never publish them on PC, but they know, that people who already own a PC for gaming, wouldn't buy a console anyways and just stay there basically. so stop with this fake bullshit argument as if you would ever buy an xbox

 

[CrisPy2019]

No shit Sherlock?!

Experts....
People that don't have actual jobs.

Especially society experts talking about queens and actors and YouTube idiots. etc....

Also of course PS5 and XSX will sell more in 2020 compared to 2013 duh....
They will even sell more than from the big bang to 2019.... Because they didn't exist.

 

[Alx]

While it's far from unlikely, I wonder how you can make such predictions without knowing critical information like launching price or number of SKUs.

 

[Shin]

While it's far from unlikely, I wonder how you can make such predictions without knowing critical information like launching price or number of SKUs.

I believe IHS has good/great connections to the industry and knows exactly what the parts cost.
For years now they're written about the bill of materials of systems, it's stuff you won't find anywhere else.

But look who created the thread, it speaks volumes of what's being pushed here.

 

[Pallas]

Ah gotta love the expert analysis opinions on very predictable topics. I think both consoles will sell pretty well but obviously the PS5 will come out swinging with their current install base.

Oh hey they got stadia on there now. Welcome back btw bro.

 

[Ar¢tos]

That's disturbing... How is Stadia alive and Xbox dead?
Why does Stadia have a skin fold?

 

[The_Mike]

No surprise. The loyalty within Playstation is too strong to be changed no matter what

 

[MiyazakiHatesKojima]

That's disturbing... How is Stadia alive and Xbox dead?
Why does Stadia have a skin fold?

Ask brap , he was the one who showed me this first

 

[brap]

Ask brap , he was the one who showed me this first

why the fuck is my avi floating

 

[MiyazakiHatesKojima]

why the fuck is my avi floating

 

[Eliciel]

Maybe they can sell 30% more units while Microsoft offers 30% more hardware.

So much gold here, 30% Off!

 

[Heinrich]

No surprise. The loyalty within Playstation is too strong to be changed no matter what

could be the worst thing happening to Sony though. Sony will get cocky and won’t change, won’t innovate. I mean just look at all the anti-customer stuff, like censorship, no crossplay, no crossbody/save etc.

 

[nikolino840]

But wich One have a Better ratio with user base?

% of 40 mil consoles
% of 100 mil consoles

If Sony sell 50 million consoles has a ratio of 50%
If Microsoft sell 40 million consoles has 100% of fidelity user base

 

[it_wasn't_me]

why do you "hope" that? because XSX is not from sony? lol the more home consoles get sold, the better. for everyone.

As long japanese console makers are outselling Xbox globally, that's good.

 

[Heinrich]

As long japanese console makers are outselling Xbox globally, that's good.

because? Because you are anti-american? What a stupid argument. race should not matter

 

[OmegaSupreme]

But muh xbox specs! lol. Of course it will.

 

[it_wasn't_me]

because? Because you are anti-american? What a stupid argument. race should not matter

I'm not anti-american. LOL.

There always be a console race. ALWAYS.

Trying to change suddenly a story when Xbone was demolished this gen by both Nintendo and Sony? Suddenly console race doesn't matter, right? Those who aren't interested in console race wouldn't said something like you did i these posts.

Very Good. Sony will be so fucked next gen.

sony fanboys are so delusional. its crazy, its like a cult or something like that. wow reading this and I cant believe what Im reading here...
get a live bro, please, go out, get some fresh air.. this is not healthy anymore

 

[Elektro Demon]

Well, of course it's gonna outsell the xbox. Xbox pretty much has almost zero presence anywhere except USA. While Sony has the European market conquered, does very well is USA, Japan is also their turf etc.

 

[VertigoOA]

It market perception is that the series X is significantly more powerful and its marketed as such...


don’t be so sure of yourselves

 

[Grinchy]

It market perception is that the series X is significantly more powerful and its marketed as such...


don’t be so sure of yourselves

I'm starting to wonder if we really are going to see 399 or 499 vs the X at 599. They haven't announced the Series S yet, but how could there be a "Series" without one?

And if its the same price as ps5 but weaker, it will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.