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Iran PoliGAF: Presidential Debate

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J

Jason's Ultimatum

Member
Wasn't there an article posted pages back that talked about how Amadinejhad is power hungry and has been distancing himself from the Ayatollah, leaving him out in the dark?
 
S

sonicmj1

Member
Stoney Mason said:
Oh like I said, I'm somewhat neutral on this whole thing in a lot of ways until more data is available. I'll check out the 538 post. And indeed there could have been widespread fraud.

My only cautionary point is that democracy, (even semi-democracy like this case in Iran) doesn't necessarily produce the results people want it to sometimes. Sometimes the "bad guys" win.

As far as a personal level I hope Mousavi wins and there was fraud. I'm just saying people need to be careful of being slightly objective.
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I don't think that it was impossible for Ahmadinejad to win in a fair election. He clearly has a large base of support. A lot of people feel that in his term in office, he cares about them and has helped them. If all we knew about the situation was that he had won, it would certainly be believable.

That said, everything I've heard seems to point to fraud. The reported margin of victory, its defiance of demographic trends, the unnatural speed of the tallying of millions of votes (supposedly done by hand), the announcement of victory practically as polls were closing, the rapid deployment of police and militias even before that announcement in anticipation of unrest, and the endorsement of that victory by Khameni without the traditional three-day grace period all indicate that the numbers were prepared in advance, and that the perpetrators wanted to cement their victory as quickly as possible.

A planned fraud also puts comments made by Ahmadinejad and the military warning of post-election revolution by Mousavi in a more interesting context.
 
N

NetMapel

Guilty White Male Mods Gave Me This Tag
I think there is no doubt that Amadinejhad can win the election no problem. However, the margin of victory is extremely suspicious to anybody who have seen the polls prior to the election. Therefore, there is a chance of a voting fraud favourable to Amadinejhad. This then beg the question to why would an election candidate resort to voter fraud if the candidate won fairly in an election. That is why many people in Iran (and GAF too, lol) are angry because it is fair to logically conclude that only a losing candidate would resort to voter fraud in order to win the election.
 
S

syllogism

Member
6.53pm:
Mousavi's camp appears to have some hard evidence of vote fraud.

In a note from Mousavi's news agency "Ghalam News", the campaign writes that Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, head of Mousavi and Karoubi's election-monitoring comittee, said that in at least 70 polling centers, the vote totals are greater than the number of people eligible to vote in the precinct.
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would they really be this incompetent
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Ahmadinejad traveled to Russia Tuesday after delaying a trip for a day but did not mention the Iranian election or unrest. Instead, he focused on the traditional target of the Islamic Republic's ire, the United States.

"America is enveloped in economic and political crises, and there is no hope for their resolution," he said through an interpreter. "Allies of the United States are not capable of easing these crises."
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Ahmadinejad is such an ass. His country has failing economy and massive street protests, so he talks about how the USA is falling apart. Despite our economic woes, our economy is in MUCH better shape that Iran's.
Iran's official unemployment rate is about 13 percent. But economists estimate the real figure is more than 20 percent.

According to official estimates, unemployment is especially rife among Iran's youth and women, where jobless rates can soar as high as 30 percent.
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And what political crisis? There is absolutely no political crisis in the USA at all. Certainly there are disagreements among the parties . . . but that is exactly what politics is! There is supposed to be disagreements! Perhaps you don't understand the nature of democracy . . . your actions certainly show this.
 
R

RiskyChris

Banned
syllogism said:
would they really be this incompetent
Click to expand...

From the messed up voter fraud to now, the regime has handled this protest incredibly incompetently. Every step of the way they have beat the shit out of the hornet's nest.

What's next?

StopAhmadi: "Khamenei LIVE say he is re-confirming #iranelection was A'nejad win" #gr88

from 4myiran: "leader: you should stop the protest"

Sounds like things are destined to escalate.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
NetMapel said:
I think there is no doubt that Amadinejhad can win the election no problem. However, the margin of victory is extremely suspicious to anybody who have seen the polls prior to the election. Therefore, there is a chance of a voting fraud favourable to Amadinejhad. This then beg the question to why would an election candidate resort to voter fraud if the candidate won fairly in an election. That is why many people in Iran (and GAF too, lol) are angry because it is fair to logically conclude that only a losing candidate would resort to voter fraud in order to win the election.
Click to expand...

It would be such ironic poetic justice if the guy could have won the election honestly but instead rigged the election and then eventually got tossed out of office for having rigged the election.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
syllogism said:
would they really be this incompetent
Click to expand...
The guy said Iran has no gay people.

He said that he had a green glow when he talked at the UN and that no one in the audience blinked for 20 minutes while listening to him.

Yes, he has an ability to say/do really stupid things.
 
D

~Devil Trigger~

In favor of setting Muslim women on fire
speculawyer said:
The guy said Iran has no gay people.

He said that he had a green glow when he talked at the UN and that no one in the audience blinked for 20 minutes while listening to him.

Yes, he has an ability to say/do really stupid things.
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did'nt you know, the gay is a western creation!!!
 
B

BorkBork

The Legend of BorkBork: BorkBorkity Borking
You think if you go and rig an election, you would want to do it in a subtle way. All of these discrepancies are pretty freaking blatant.
 
N

NetMapel

Guilty White Male Mods Gave Me This Tag
syllogism said:
would they really be this incompetent
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I think they were just too over-confident that the masses will accept the election result because everybody loves Amadinejhad !
 
W

water_wendi

Water is not wet!
speculawyer said:
The guy said Iran has no gay people.

He said that he had a green glow when he talked at the UN and that no one in the audience blinked for 20 minutes while listening to him.

Yes, he has an ability to say/do really stupid things.
Click to expand...

i dont really like to defend this guy but what he said is true. He did not say that there are no gay people in Iran. "We don't have homosexuals like in your country" is the quote.. which was also later clarified to mean that how open it is here in the US. Taking that context it is true. How many pride parades are there in Tehran?
 
K

kkaabboomm

Member
just FYI http://bbc.co.uk has gone 'green'

edit: nvrmnd, seems that they did that a while ago

Update | 2:07 p.m. Just to knock down a rumor spreading online, the BBC’s home page has been green for long before the color was adopted as a symbol of the Iranian opposition. The corporation did not change the color in sympathy with Mr. Moussavi’s campaign.

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/latest-updates-on-irans-disputed-election/


further edit: this just shows how information and disinformation is spreading around.
 
B

Blackface

Banned
kkaabboomm said:
just FYI http://bbc.co.uk has gone 'green'

edit: nvrmnd, seems that they did that a while ago

Update | 2:07 p.m. Just to knock down a rumor spreading online, the BBC’s home page has been green for long before the color was adopted as a symbol of the Iranian opposition. The corporation did not change the color in sympathy with Mr. Moussavi’s campaign.

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/latest-updates-on-irans-disputed-election/


further edit: this just shows how information and disinformation is spreading around.
Click to expand...

I am almost 100 percent certain I went to bbc.co.uk the night before last and it was not green at all.
 
C

Chrono

Banned
Argh, I saw that daily show segment on Iran and they had a veiled woman in it. Iranian women, even the most conservative, don't cover their faces. I've only ever seen one in a tv report or documentary I think in a street in Qom, the most religious city.
 
P

Piano

Banned
Today's protests were evidently much smaller than yesterday - I hope people come out in droves again tomorrow or the next day. The people of Iran truly can bring the country to a halt, especially if they call a strike as has been suggested by some.

What's fishiest to me is how the government immediately went on the hyper-defensive. They're pumping out constant propaganda about the fairness of the election, and the "unity" rally held in support of Ahmadinejad today. Not to mention that it's straight impossible to count tens of millions of votes by hand as they did.
 
C

Chrono

Banned
slide_1769_23983_large.jpg




:lol


Edit:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/farshadebrahimi/2355315786/

Huh. I found this picture minutes after making that post about Iranian women not wearing veils. Not sure if it's from Iran though.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
TheEastonator said:
Today's protests were evidently much smaller than yesterday - I hope people come out in droves again tomorrow or the next day. The people of Iran truly can bring the country to a halt, especially if they call a strike as has been suggested by some.

What's fishiest to me is how the government immediately went on the hyper-defensive. They're pumping out constant propaganda about the fairness of the election, and the "unity" rally held in support of Ahmadinejad today. Not to mention that it's straight impossible to count tens of millions of votes by hand as they did.
Click to expand...


I thought the protest was bigger today?
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Number 2 said:
i dont really like to defend this guy but what he said is true. He did not say that there are no gay people in Iran. "We don't have homosexuals like in your country" is the quote.. which was also later clarified to mean that how open it is here in the US. Taking that context it is true. How many pride parades are there in Tehran?
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Yeah, that was a complete bullshit later clarification.

Mr. President, another student asks, Iranian women are now denied basic human rights, and your government has imposed draconian punishments, including execution on Iranian citizens who are homosexuals. Why are you doing those things?

. . . (long avoidance of gay part of question) . .

MR. COATSWORTH: (Off mike) -- and drug smugglers. The question was about sexual preference and women. (Applause.)
PRESIDENT AHMADINEJAD: In Iran, we don't have homosexuals like in your country. (Laughter.) We don't have that in our country. (Booing.) In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it. (Laughter.)
Click to expand...
http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/hourlyupdate/202820.php

So the question was, why do you punish gay people with a response of " In Iran, we don't have homosexuals like in your country. (Laughter.) We don't have that in our country. (Booing.) In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." Nobody was talking about what Iranian gay people are like. Just a (quite logical) presumption that they exist and a question on why are they punished? The response was that we don't have that in our country . . . a stupid lie or a statement who is so incompetent that he doesn't have a basic grasp on reality.
 
W

water_wendi

Water is not wet!
speculawyer said:
Yeah, that was a complete bullshit later clarification.
Click to expand...
Well sometimes when languages are translated later clarification is needed.

http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/hourlyupdate/202820.php

So the question was, why do you punish gay people with a response of " In Iran, we don't have homosexuals like in your country. (Laughter.) We don't have that in our country. (Booing.) In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." Nobody was talking about what Iranian gay people are like. Just a (quite logical) presumption that they exist and a question on why are they punished? The response was that we don't have that in our country . . . a stupid lie or a statement who is so incompetent that he doesn't have a basic grasp on reality.
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i see your point. ive just always taken that to mean like openly gay community. The "in your country" and "phenomenon" were how i drew that conclusion. Given some of his other statements though you are probably correct.
 
B

Brobzoid

how do I slip unnoticed out of a gloryhole booth?
speculawyer said:
Now the really ballsy thing to do would be to set up some permanent protest camp like they did in Tienanmen square. Of course, you'd need balls of titanium to do that.
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There would be so much pepper spray that there would be a pepper spray fall-out increasing the pepper spray radiation in that square to lethal levels for a 100 years if they did that.
 
P

pgtl_10

Member
syllogism said:
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090615_western_misconceptions_meet_iranian_reality

I'm inclined to mostly agree
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Excellant article.

I was about to post this before reading your link:

http://www.antiwar.com/blog/2009/06/15/did-ahmadinejad-win-fair-square-%e2%80%93-and-cheat-too/

I like the comment made by alli:

At the time the “informed one” wrote his article, there was no way for Juan Cole to know how many people voted in Tabriz and what was the result. So, that article is practically much ado about something that Juan Cole does not know much about. The rest of the article is even worse. For example, how many people would vote for Obama, if his entire campaign in each major city, and only in major cities, was made up of a handful of ridiculously dressed teenage girls, waving banners with “Change” written on them, in Persian? Now, he is a disgrace to Lors, who voted overwhelmingly for Ahmadinejad, and a disgrace to the clergy. Consider him, if you care to do at all, finished.

As for Mr. Rezai, he was not much of a contender to begin with. Yet, the final blow came during the the television debate. Ahmadinejad reminded him that he has had no experience in the executive branch of the government, where Rezai shot back, “How can that be? We used to appoint mayors and governors during the war.” Ahmadinejad said, I would never dare to say what you just said. But, Rezai kept insisting that he, as the head of the Revolutionary guards, did just that. Ahmadinejad went on to try to explain that what happened during the war and what he did in that position to help the cities that were overran by the enemy, cannot be considered as experience in the management of the government, but Rezai would not budge. Rezai also explained his programs on the debate. The main crux of his ideas was that he intends to create think tanks for each, to be designated, area of the country. Ahmadinejad in the most simple and elegant way proved to him that his plans will be doomed to failure from day one, if not for the simple reason that his designated areas, do not reflect the social and economic realities across the country and that there would be resistance to his plans to the point that he would not even know where to establish the offices of his think tanks.

The breakdown of election results for every city and province in Iran were published yesterday, by the Guardian council and the Interior ministry. Mousavi, has won in only two provinces, Western Azarbaijan which has Tabriz as its capital, and Sistan and Baluchistan. He also has the majority only in the city of Tehran, but not the entire province of Tehran. In the last election, where the Khatami government was conducting the elections, and Ahmadinejad was opposed by the same people that are active against him right now, Ahmadinejad won by almost the same margin of 10 million people over his rival Rafsanji. In the second round, Ahmadinejad won 17 million votes, and Rafsanjani 8 million of the votes.

Ahmadinejad won fair and square. At this moment, Mr. Mousavi has not even submitted his letter of protest pointing out what were the problems that causes him to reject the results of the elections. Mr. Mousavi is a member of the expediency council. According to the law, the members of the expediency council are appointed by the Leader of Islamic republic, Ayatollah Khamenei. Contrary to what has been said, Ayatollah Khamenei has been quite consistent, when he asked the Guardian council to carefully and thoroughly address and investigate Mr. Mousavi’s concerns, which again Mr. Mousavi has not made clear what they are anyway. That is not a good sign for Mr. Mousavi and he knows it.

Incidentally, Ayatollah Khamenei is from a family that hails from the same town that Mr. Mousavi hails from. Khamenei means “from Khamene”. Mr. Mousavi’s complete name is Mir-Hossein Moussavi Khamene.

No, there was no cheating. It was fair & square.
Click to expand...

While anedoctal it does present a plausible view. It's hard to tell what goes through the mind of Middle Easterners when looking at their thinking from the outside.
 
C

Chrono

Banned
C- Warrior said:
I did. Sorry if I didn't comment to it, since I see graphic shit like that on a day to day basis.
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I actually paused and started to wonder where you're posting from. Oh wait, internet.

Really though you must go to some pretty fucked up sites to see things like that on a day to day basis. That video scared the hell out of me.
 
H

Hootie

Member
Has this been posted yet?

Iranian Medical Student said:
Hello,


It's painful to watch what's happening.

I don't want anything to do with what has been said this far, as I neither have the strength nor the resilience to face all these unfathomable events.

I only want to speak about what I have witnessed. I am a medical student. There was chaos last night at the trauma section in one of our main hospitals. Although by decree, all riot-related injuries were supposed to be sent to military hospitals, all other hospitals were filled to the rim. Last night, nine people died at our hospital and another 28 had gunshot wounds. All hospital employees were crying till dawn. They (government) removed the dead bodies on back of trucks, before we were even able to get their names or other information. What can you even say to the people who don't even respect the dead. No one was allowed to speak to the wounded or get any information from them. This morning the faculty and the students protested by gathering at the lobby of the hospital where they were confronted by plain cloths anti-riot militia, who in turn closed off the hospital and imprisoned the staff. The extent of injuries are so grave, that despite being one of the most staffed emergency rooms, they've asked everyone to stay and help--I'm sure it will even be worst tonight.

What can anyone say in face of all these atrocities? What can you say to the family of the 13 year old boy who died from gunshots and whose dead body then disappeared?

This issue is not about cheating(election) anymore. This is not about stealing votes anymore. The issue is about a vast injustice inflected on the people. They've put a baton in the hand of every 13-14 year old to smash the faces of "the bunches who are less than dirt" (government is calling the people who are uprising dried-up torn and weeds) .

This is what sickens me from dealing with these issues. And from those who shut their eyes and close their ears and claim the riots are in opposition of the government and presidency!! No! The people's complaint is against the egregious injustices committed against the people.
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This shit is absolutely surreal...
 
P

pgtl_10

Member
In this regard, President Barack Obama’s comments on Friday, a few hours before the polls closed in Iran, that “just as has been true in Lebanon, what can be true in Iran as well is that you’re seeing people looking at new possibilities” was extremely maladroit.
Click to expand...

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23745_Page2.html#commentsform#ixzz0Idbp6oYB&C

Obama really said that? He needs to go back and check the results. Hezbollah got over 50% of the vote:

Nasrallah is right on this score: The numbers show that the opposition garnered over 100,000 more votes than March 14 did on election day. But the electoral law gave greater weight to votes in some districts than it did to those in others.
Click to expand...

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&article_id=102872&categ_id=17

Hezbollah made the mistake of agreeing to the rules which gives certain ethiniticities more weight than others. That's their fault, but nonetheless the Lebenonese did not decide to change just their voice was diluted on a technicality.

Anyway the authors of the politico article are very credible when it comes to Iran. They actually negotiated with Iran and were making progress untill the Bush administration pulled the plug.
 
G

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
I'm taking whatever presstv.ir says and these "stories from people inside Iran" both with a grain of salt.
 
D

Deadly Monk

Banned
A few family members I talked to over there have pretty much given up on protesting and know it is a fake election anyway. If you know anything about the people who really rule there (the current president takes orders, he doesn't make any decisions himself), then you know this isn't going to have an effect on them.

The truth is, the younger ones really want to do something but are too afraid to. The entire country needs to be completely changed. I was hoping they would overthrow the government one day and actually have a democracy but that's still only a dream for most of the college students, especially with the revolutionary guards around every corner.
 
C

Chrono

Banned
pgtl_10 said:
Hezbollah made the mistake of agreeing to the rules which gives certain ethiniticities more weight than others. That's their fault, but nonetheless the Lebenonese did not decide to change just their voice was diluted on a technicality.
Click to expand...

And they won't decide to change anytime soon, they'll just vote along sectarian lines again.

Anyway the authors of the politico article are very credible when it comes to Iran. They actually negotiated with Iran and were making progress untill the Bush administration pulled the plug.
Click to expand...

I read so many articles in the last few days on this that I'm 99% sure this was rigged. Maybe he still would have won if it wasn't, maybe he got a miserably low percentage and they panicked, maybe they didn't even look at the real results. Who knows. However, this election is anything but fair even by iranian (velayat faqih) standards. One article even was specifically directed at the politico one you posted but I'm too lazy to track back everything I read. Plenty of those people too know a lot about Iran, more so than those two who negotiated with them even.

A few links (check the last several entries on the top 3 links):

http://www.juancole.com/
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/dreyfuss
http://garysick.tumblr.com/
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0617/p06s01-wome.html
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2009/06/laura-secor-irans-stolen-election.html
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2009/06/laura-secor-why-tehran-matters.html


Edit: checkout this comment from the first new yorker link:

As if any elections were free in the United States and that the government of the people is still kept in place. Laura, you offer no evidence of the election "fraud." I can confidently tell you that most people I know voted for Ahmadinejad even if they may not agree with his policies and some of the emabarassing things that he'd said (that there are no gays in Iran, that women enjoy freedom than women in any other countries, etc...). I'd decided to vote for Mousavi before his debate with Ahmadinejad. I wore the green ribbon on my wrist and advocated for Mousavi in my university until he dissed the hell out of himself in his first debate. And, I like many other Iranians, changed our minds about the two candidates because of Ahmadinejad's strong conviction and Mousavi's inconsistency with his past. You need to get out of the box and interview only a few from cities other than Tehran ascertain your baseless claim. But you probably won't publish this because, to your chagrin, this is a comment in opposition to yours. The New York Times has done a slightly better job than the New Yorker on this matter.
Click to expand...

The parallels between AJ and Bush are frightening. :lol
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Deadly Monk said:
A few family members I talked to over there have pretty much given up on protesting and know it is a fake election anyway. If you know anything about the people who really rule there (the current president takes orders, he doesn't make any decisions himself), then you know this isn't going to have an effect on them.

The truth is, the younger ones really want to do something but are too afraid to. The entire country needs to be completely changed. I was hoping they would overthrow the government one day and actually have a democracy but that's still only a dream for most of the college students, especially with the revolutionary guards around every corner.
Click to expand...

If they are college students, they will one day no longer be college students, and they will have children, who will be college students.
 
C

Chrono

Banned
It could take a decade or even two for Iran to become a democracy. I wouldn't be surprised to finally this regime go sometimes in the 2030s after celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2029.

Those college kids protesting right now will be seeing their own kids attain what is being robbed of them now, they'll see their kids get the life they never had.
 
empty vessel

empty vessel

Member
pgtl_10 said:
While anedoctal it does present a plausible view. It's hard to tell what goes through the mind of Middle Easterners when looking at their thinking from the outside.
Click to expand...

I'm not so sure I'd put it like that. More like: It's hard to tell what goes on in the Middle East when looking at it through the lens of Western media.
 
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