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May 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 14th

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
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780
When did you change your avatar?
Last night. Tried to delay the inevitable pony love punishment as long as possible.

So, since MK8 and its potential hardware boost only has two days of tracking, does that mean that the next month should produce "better" results?
I do think that 2 days isn't enough of a sample to accurately represent launch demand.

I talked with a Target manager on May 31st about demand...and he said that his initial launch shipment of MK8 copies had all been sold-through on the first day, and they were waiting for the next one to come in.

I think there are instances where we'll see the force of that launch demand be fully realised at retail with about two weeks of extra tracking.

So in that regard, yes...I do believe we'll see elevated performances in June. Reggie / NOA is excited about June NPD as well.
 

Bel_Air_Jeff

Banned
Aug 23, 2012
2,129
0
0
So this will be the Wii U sales from May 1 - May 30?

I expect Wii U sales for June to probably be better than May. So I guess we'll have to wait for next month NPD.
 
Apr 22, 2014
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Last night. Tried to delay the inevitable pony love punishment as long as possible.
I'll just have to get used to skimming through threads to find this picture instead. :p

So this will be the Wii U sales from May 1 - May 30?

I expect Wii U sales for June to probably be better than May. So I guess we'll have to wait for next month NPD.
May 4th - May 31st is last month's NPD reporting period, I believe.
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
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780
So this will be the Wii U sales from May 1 - May 30?

I expect Wii U sales for June to probably be better than May. So I guess we'll have to wait for next month NPD.
NPD is never measured in terms of "months."

Each NPD period is either a 4-week (28 days) or a 5-week period (35 days).

This allows analysts to easily derive weekly averages (e.g. April 2014 NPD results / 4 weeks = weekly average).


April 2014 NPD was the 4-week period beginning April 6th, 2014 and ending May 3rd, 2014.

May 2014 NPD is the 4-week period beginning May 4th, 2014 and ending May 31st, 2014.

June 2014 NPD is the 5-week period beginning June 1st, 2014 and ending July 5th, 2014.
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
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So best I can tell Amazon US has some odd placements for May

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-05/videogames/?tag=viglink129408-20#1

Code:
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/PlayStation-4-Console/dp/B00BGA9WK2/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_6"]PS4[/URL]------------------> 6
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Xbox-One-Console-Titanfall-Bundle-Kinect/dp/B00IIHU44E/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_39"]XB1 TF SKU[/URL]-----------> 39
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Borderlands-Limited-Edition-PlayStation-Vita-Bundle/dp/B00HLT0YT0/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_43"]PSV BL SKU[/URL]-----------> 43
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Nintendo-3DS-XL-Silver-Limited-Edition/dp/B00FXOP1JI/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_58"]3DS XL SIL SKU[/URL]-------> 58
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Nintendo-Wii-Mario-Luigi-Deluxe-U/dp/B00G0OYHCW/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_60"]Wii U M&L Deluxe SKU[/URL]-> 60
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Xbox-360-4GB/dp/B00D9EPI38/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_87"]X360 4GB[/URL]-------------> 87
Perhaps I missed some console SKUs? I did look over the bestsellers a couple of times though

I think I might regret putting XB1 so low :\

Albeit I do think the PSV placement in the charts is likely due to lack of adequate supply at many retail stores.

I also think that Amazon might not be a good measure for Wii U's performance as I guess Amazon didn't have the MK8 Wii U bundle available?
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
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theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Last night. Tried to delay the inevitable pony love punishment as long as possible.



I do think that 2 days isn't enough of a sample to accurately represent launch demand.

I talked with a Target manager on May 31st about demand...and he said that his initial launch shipment of MK8 copies had all been sold-through on the first day, and they were waiting for the next one to come in.

I think there are instances where we'll see the force of that launch demand be fully realised at retail with about two weeks of extra tracking.

So in that regard, yes...I do believe we'll see elevated performances in June. Reggie / NOA is excited about June NPD as well.
Maybe even too much, reading that interview. But, as schuelma pointed out, another interview with Reggie made it sound like the MK8 boost is still having an effect right now, or at least that's what the wording seems to imply. Let's see if I can find it. Or maybe it was in the same article? Don't remember now.
 

Bruno MB

Member
Jan 3, 2012
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0
740
Majorca - Spain
I think 70k is the absolute floor. I didn't change my 110 prediction because I suspect there was a bump during the prerelease MK8 buzz (obviously could be wrong). This was the case in Japan, though to be fair in Japan there was no MK8 hardware bundle. Should be interesting.
Wii U hardware boost in the US looks low compared to other countries (UK - France) that also had a bundle, so it would make sense that pre-release hype made some people buy it a week earlier.

Wii U sales increase during Mario Kart 8 release:

UK (+666%)
France (+660%)
US (+310%)
Japan (+115%)
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
I also think that Amazon might not be a good measure for Wii U's performance as I guess Amazon didn't have the MK8 Wii U bundle available?
Do they sell Nintendo hardware themselves, yet? Thought they had started selling 3DSs again after more than a year of really not, but don't think they sell Wii Us, at this point. That'd make the MK8 bundle third-party sellers, then.
 

lightning2k3

Member
Feb 7, 2013
1,279
0
0
So best I can tell Amazon US has some odd placements for May

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-05/videogames/?tag=viglink129408-20#1

Code:
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/PlayStation-4-Console/dp/B00BGA9WK2/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_6"]PS4[/URL]------------------> 6
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Xbox-One-Console-Titanfall-Bundle-Kinect/dp/B00IIHU44E/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_39"]XB1 TF SKU[/URL]-----------> 39
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Borderlands-Limited-Edition-PlayStation-Vita-Bundle/dp/B00HLT0YT0/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_43"]PSV BL SKU[/URL]-----------> 43
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Nintendo-3DS-XL-Silver-Limited-Edition/dp/B00FXOP1JI/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_58"]3DS XL SIL SKU[/URL]-------> 58
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Nintendo-Wii-Mario-Luigi-Deluxe-U/dp/B00G0OYHCW/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_60"]Wii U M&L Deluxe SKU[/URL]-> 60
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Xbox-360-4GB/dp/B00D9EPI38/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_87"]X360 4GB[/URL]-------------> 87
Perhaps I missed some console SKUs? I did look over the bestsellers a couple of times though

I think I might regret putting XB1 so low :\

Albeit I do think the PSV placement in the charts is likely due to lack of adequate supply at many retail stores.

I also think that Amazon might not be a good measure for Wii U's performance as I guess Amazon didn't have the MK8 Wii U bundle available?

The vita bundle was/is still sold out directly from amazon, and is only available from 3rd party resellers. I think that probably suppressed it's ranking in May.
 

BlackJace

Member
Dec 24, 2011
16,521
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0
Mobius
Last night. Tried to delay the inevitable pony love punishment as long as possible.



I do think that 2 days isn't enough of a sample to accurately represent launch demand.

I talked with a Target manager on May 31st about demand...and he said that his initial launch shipment of MK8 copies had all been sold-through on the first day, and they were waiting for the next one to come in.

I think there are instances where we'll see the force of that launch demand be fully realised at retail with about two weeks of extra tracking.

So in that regard, yes...I do believe we'll see elevated performances in June. Reggie / NOA is excited about June NPD as well.
Interesting, thanks for sharing.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Aug 7, 2013
8,549
0
0
Everyone is making me doubt my position on Wii U at 101k :(
pun intended
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
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0
Do they sell Nintendo hardware themselves, yet? Thought they had started selling 3DSs again after more than a year of really not, but don't think they sell Wii Us, at this point. That'd make the MK8 bundle third-party sellers, then.
Ah I forgot about that. All Nintendo Hardware SKUs I can find including the half dozen 3DS SKUs are sold by 3rd party sellers so I guess no?

The vita bundle was/is still sold out directly from amazon, and is only available from 3rd party resellers. I think that probably suppressed it's ranking in May.
Maybe. I am not crazy optimistic on the Vita though and can only imagine it possibly outselling the PS3 in some crazy happenstance thus it's placement in Amazon rankings still seems a bit misleading
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
29
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Maybe even too much, reading that interview. But, as schuelma pointed out, another interview with Reggie made it sound like the MK8 boost is still having an effect right now, or at least that's what the wording seems to imply. Let's see if I can find it. Or maybe it was in the same article? Don't remember now.
Found this

http://venturebeat.com/2014/06/13/reggie-fils-aime-talks-about-e3-industry-change-and-what-nintendo-is-doing-for-a-comeback-interview/

We announced not just that we’ve sold 1.2 million units on a global basis, but we announced to the financial community here in the United States that Mario Kart 8 has increased the sell-through of the Wii U hardware business by a factor of four. In the two weeks prior to the launch, versus what we’ve seen now following the launch, we’re selling at a daily rate four times higher than where we were before.
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
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780
Wow, wonder if the Bone will be 3rd for the month.
That's not new information.

Here is my reaction to it:

"#Nintendo said MK8 attach rate in US was 18% versus 7% for MK7. MK8 boosted WiiU sales 4.1x week over week v. MK7 2.4x"


Wii U did 48K in a 4-week period in April.

That's an average of 12K per week.


Assuming the same average constant throughout May NPD:


Week 1 (May 5th - May 11th): 12K (12K total)

Week 2 (May 12th - May 18th): 12K (24K total)

Week 3 (May 19th - May 25th): 12K (36K total)

Week 4 (May 26th - June 1st): 49K (12K * 4.1) (85K total)


Therefore, it would be wise for me to adjust my 98K prediction down to 85K.






"#nintendo in analyst meeting said in usa sold 450k of MK8 in 3 days versus 250k on MK7."


It works with the 18% attach rate claim like this:


Mario Kart -> 450K in May -> 18% attach rate


Wii U sales in USA through April: 2.35 million
Assumption for May sales: 0.085 million
Total LTD assumption: 2.44 million

450K / 2440K = 18.44% attach rate

This is supposing Nintendo rounded 18.44% down to 18%, of course.
 

Wynnebeck

Banned
Aug 5, 2012
13,020
0
0
Ahh, the fresh smell of a brand new NPD.

Data release should be in around two hours.

Then we wait 4 1/2 hours for PR, and even longer for leakers to share some data.

Remember, GAF leakers prefer to share when the thread isn't moving a mile a minute and gathering tons of attention all around the Internet. You know, in the twilight hours. ;-)
Oh the irony girl!

 

lightning2k3

Member
Feb 7, 2013
1,279
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0
Ah I forgot about that. All Nintendo Hardware SKUs I can find including the half dozen 3DS SKUs are sold by 3rd party sellers so I guess no?



Maybe. I am not crazy optimistic on the Vita though and can only imagine it possibly outselling the PS3 in some crazy happenstance thus it's placement in Amazon rankings still seems a bit misleading
If it was ever possible, it would be that month. Pent up demand from lack of stock in previous month + new bundle release + falling sales of the ps3 due to no new content released = best chance for vita to make a dent. But realistically, you're probably right. I guess I'm overly optimistic since its been the first good piece of news related to the vita that I've heard in months.
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
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Still doesn't change my inquiry.
Well, 115K is a very recent scenario where Xbox One sold 4 full weeks without any notice of a price drop.

Announcements of price drops always hurt existing sales. We know from retail impressions that Xbox One sales were quite slow throughout May.

And for May NPD, only 8 of those 28 days were unaffected by a price drop announcement. That's 71% of the reporting month in a scenario where major retailers actively advertised a $399 future price.

It's very probable that the net decline from all of that activity will be >30K from 115K, implying a PS4 > Wii U > Xbox One scenario.
 

neogaffer1

Banned
Feb 24, 2014
6,377
0
0
So best I can tell Amazon US has some odd placements for May

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-05/videogames/?tag=viglink129408-20#1

Code:
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/PlayStation-4-Console/dp/B00BGA9WK2/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_6"]PS4[/URL]------------------> 6
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Xbox-One-Console-Titanfall-Bundle-Kinect/dp/B00IIHU44E/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_39"]XB1 TF SKU[/URL]-----------> 39
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Borderlands-Limited-Edition-PlayStation-Vita-Bundle/dp/B00HLT0YT0/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_43"]PSV BL SKU[/URL]-----------> 43
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Nintendo-3DS-XL-Silver-Limited-Edition/dp/B00FXOP1JI/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_58"]3DS XL SIL SKU[/URL]-------> 58
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Nintendo-Wii-Mario-Luigi-Deluxe-U/dp/B00G0OYHCW/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_60"]Wii U M&L Deluxe SKU[/URL]-> 60
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/Xbox-360-4GB/dp/B00D9EPI38/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_87"]X360 4GB[/URL]-------------> 87
Perhaps I missed some console SKUs? I did look over the bestsellers a couple of times though

I think I might regret putting XB1 so low :\

Albeit I do think the PSV placement in the charts is likely due to lack of adequate supply at many retail stores.

I also think that Amazon might not be a good measure for Wii U's performance as I guess Amazon didn't have the MK8 Wii U bundle available?
Amazon's rankings are pretty bad for telling where the XB1 is at. Ususally it's wallowing in the 40's while PS4 is near the top no matter what NPD turns out to be, even in March where XB1 sales were 90% of PS4 sales.
 

SDCowboy

Member
Feb 23, 2014
9,157
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Well, 115K is a very recent scenario where Xbox One sold 4 full weeks without any notice of a price drop.

Announcements of price drops always hurt existing sales. We know from retail impressions that Xbox One sales were quite slow throughout May.

And for May NPD, only 8 of those 28 days were unaffected by a price drop announcement. That's 71% of the reporting month in a scenario where major retailers actively advertised a $399 future price.

It's very probable that the net decline from all of that activity will be >30K from 115K, implying a PS4 > Wii U > Xbox One scenario.
Right, but everything factored in, if the WiiU outsold the Xbone, it would be a big deal. Positively for one, horribly for the other. Being dead last for a month in this console gen with the WiiU is not a good thing.
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
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780
Right, but everything factored in, if the WiiU outsold the Xbone, it would be a big deal. Positively for one, horribly for the other. Being dead last for a month in this console gen with the WiiU is not a good thing.
For NeoGAF? Sure, it'll be huge.

But for the companies that care about NPD performance...they're going to write-off the poor Xbox One performance in May as a circumstance of poor announcement timing.

June 2014 NPD sales are going to be critically important for Xbox One, though.
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
23,627
0
0
Amazon's rankings are pretty bad for telling where the XB1 is at. Ususally it's wallowing in the 40's while PS4 is near the top no matter what NPD turns out to be, even in March where XB1 sales were 90% of PS4 sales.
Hmm?

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-03/videogames/?tag=viglink129408-20#1

In March, PS4's single SKU was number 1 whereas XB1's 2 SKU's were 11 and 76. Maybe the gap was larger than the market decreed but that would be hard to characterize with multiple XB1 SKU's [if a consumer valued the Forza 5 pack-in more than TF for instance] as well as the fact Amazon still detailed the uptick of sales for both platforms.

It is of course an imperfect measure but I see little reason it should be written off for the XB1 of all things.
 

SDCowboy

Member
Feb 23, 2014
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Like others have said though, the June NPD is going to be really interesting. That's where we'll likely see if the Xbone price cut made a substantial difference, of if consumers largely just don't care about the product. If it's the latter, I'm not sure what's left for MS to do this gen.
 

michaelius

Member
Jan 5, 2012
15,765
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845
Oh that's disturbing. I hope it was just a small publisher that can't afford NPD / GfK subscriptions and not a major one.

The power that ioi commands over his manufactured data is ridiculous. I just can't believe he continues to make a living wage over the whole ordeal.
People are interested in numbers and they are only ones who deliver them openly after NPD stopped posting any numbers.
 

BlackJace

Member
Dec 24, 2011
16,521
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Mobius
Do you really think so though? I am under the impression most people are kinda expecting the xbox to tank in may and the wii u to surge to to MK8. Doesn't seem like the type of news that will generate meltdowns.
100 page threads are spawned by resolution and FPS discrepancies all the time. I'm sure this will rustle a few jimmies.
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
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Do you really think so though? I am under the impression most people are kinda expecting the xbox to tank in may and the wii u to surge to to MK8. Doesn't seem like the type of news that will generate meltdowns.
Well, huge because NPD threads at GAF these days tend to be huge regardless.

So all of those people who don't follow Sales-Age and just see "Xbox One sold a lot less than Wii U? And Wii U is widely considered a failure?" might be surprised. Or hell, even if they're not super surprised...it will still generate a huge reaction just because of how large NPD threads are.

Of course, the intensity of the announcement depends on the disparity of the numbers...and whether there are any real surprises or not.
 

Pain

Banned
Jun 2, 2013
2,810
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USA
There's a real chance for Wii U to outsell XBO this month I think. It really depends on how many were holding out for a cheaper XBO.
 

Freeman

Banned
Aug 23, 2013
6,275
2,001
840
Amazon's rankings are pretty bad for telling where the XB1 is at. Ususally it's wallowing in the 40's while PS4 is near the top no matter what NPD turns out to be, even in March where XB1 sales were 90% of PS4 sales.
Not true at all.