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May 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 7th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Prototype Viktor
Member
[PS4] 237K
[XB1] 104K
[WIU] 33K
[3DS] 62K
[XB1] 104K
[WIU] 33K
[3DS] 62K
While the used market is indeed pretty big here many of the people buying consoles are the sort of core consumers who want these games on day 1 but they often sell off their older games in order to buy the newer titles so the market is flooded with older games. The result seems to be that as the generation progresses most games have very little in the way of sales tails as people who are purchasing the HW later on will often buy up some of the plentiful used copies available instead of buying new. It certainly doesn't help that newer titles are often quite expensive compared to the used versions either. The difference is much larger than what you usually see in the states. I believe this is why we see such massive sales drop offs with 90% of titles in Japan in as little as a week after release with the only exceptions being the biggest franchises (Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, etc) or phenomenally successful new IPs like Splatoon.
Also the retro game market is truly massive here with second hand stores being so plentiful and widespread. Its a nice perk of the strong used market that retro game collecting is not only easy but often very inexpensive and its something I have taken advantage of quite a bit while living here.
But this is all just based on my own personal experience here and its by no means the result of a study or anything so my read could be wrong but its what I have noticed in my time here. So take it or leave it.
They get point-of-sale (POS) data from used game retailers. Since it's pretty much all from one retailer, and they avoid sharing specific sales data from individual stores, they mainly report on aggregate numbers for used (and digital) quarterly. NPD does have access to that data, though. Famisu (and MC?) report used sales from Japan in their annual reports, as well, based on similar POS data.
Final Fantasy is prodigious for its high first week : LTD ratio, so that's not a good example. Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, etc. have those kinds of long tails (and stay on the charts forever), though.
I thought 13 and its sequels went on to have some decent legs. Maybe I'm wrong. But yeah Mario Kart is another good example.
Final Fantasy XIII sold over 1.5 million in Japan first week, but less than 2 million lifetime.
You see how decent those legs were...
slavesnyder
Member
Mirror's Edge reviews not too good.
Next single player underperformer incoming?
Next single player underperformer incoming?
AmaterasuOni
Banned
I wonder what was the budget.
Not sure but you really can't blame EA on this one. They marketed the game and gave it it's due. Personally I didn't see the game doing any better than the first one.
slavesnyder
Member
Right. Shouldn't be too high. Less than tomb raider, Quantum or the order anyway.
Does someone here has a list or a link to a collection of game budgets? This would be great.
CorporateClown
Member
[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 121K
[3DS] 82K
[WIU] 36K
[XB1] 121K
[3DS] 82K
[WIU] 36K
This one will be interesting since it seems open world was forcibly inserted into the franchise for the sole purpose of avoiding the low sales that have been plaguing more linear story driven games this gen.
The problem is that being open world actively works against what made the original game fun so methinks it's backfired on then and the reviews would seem to indicate as much.
EA is definitely to blame here. They tried to shove a bunch of new concepts into a franchise that lost its identity in the process. Mirrors edge simply doesn't work as an open world game and it had no business being one. The original was essentially a puzzle platformer and thinks to now being open world it's lost that and with it much of what made the game fun.
CosmicQueso
Member
For a crazy prediction I'd go: 1) Overwatch 2) LSW 3) Mirror's Edge
Super crazy prediction: Month 2 of Overwatch > Month 1 of Overwatch
That would be nuts! Care to explain why you think this could be possible? I mean how often does a game go on to sell well in its first month and then even better in its second? I certainly cant recall an example at the moment.
This isn't super crazy, and not even crazy, and not even... This is super likely lol.
1 weeks VS 5 weeks.
And we talk about a game which looks like has legs, just look at some example:
Mario Kart 8 (1 week of May) - 415,000
Mario Kart 8 (5 weeks of June) - 470,000
Boost: +13%
Splatoon (1 week of May) - 165,000
Splatoon (5 weeks of June) - 290,000
Boost: +76%
Looking at UK chart, just for have some idea of how the trend could be:
Mario Kart 8 second week drop: -74%
Splatoon second week drop: -50%
OverWatch second week drop: -54%
I think OverWatch is easy on the way to sell more in the second NPD, easy imo.
Honestly the first game sold decently but I don't think the fanbase is there for this. The first game just only reviewed ok as well. Don't think we'll ever see another ME game.
Oh good point. I had forgotten it was only on sale for the last week of the month. Guess it is possible. Still seems like a pretty rare thing reserved for games with the most impressive of legs like Splatoon or Mario Kart.
3rdamention
Member
[PS4] 202K
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[WIU] 30K
[XB1] 130K
[3DS] 60K
[WIU] 30K
Welfare
Member
Might not be that crazy, actually. I can see it happening.
The
I post it again. UK second week drop:
Mario Kart 8 second week drop: -74%
Splatoon second week drop: -50%
OverWatch second week drop: -54%
So far OverWatch is looking good.
It won't have the same Splatoon boost, but should be better than Mario Kart 8. Those games with that cartoon style have great legs.
Yeah, I was wondering why you said we would get numbers today when this thread first launched. I didn't want to burst your bubble.
Yeah, I was wondering why you said we would get numbers today when this thread first launched. I didn't want to burst your bubble.
So you knew this but you left feel me like a stupid!?
We aren't friends anymore
/sHaha, like I said, didn't want to burst your bubble. Remember that one Spongebob episode where he goes "It's the best day ever!" but everything goes horribly wrong until the end? Yeah, didn't want that to happen.So you knew this but you left feel me like a stupid!?
We aren't friends anymore
Haha, like I said, didn't want to burst your bubble. Remember that one Spongebob episode where he goes "It's the best day ever!" but everything goes horribly wrong until the end? Yeah, didn't want that to happen.
Lol i remember that one too. Oh no. Now even the others two thing gonna be brutal. D:
But in the end Splatoon still got the best day ever
Nah, try not to think too hard about it. Even if it does go wrong, you will have a rich friend pay you back for all the good deeds you did throughout the day.Lol i remember that one too. Oh no. Now even the others two thing gonna be brutal. D:
But in the end Splatoon still got the best day ever
Nah, try not to think too hard about it. Even if it does go wrong, you will have a rich friend pay you back for all the good deeds you did throughout the day.
But will be super boring for them.
Indeed, you get to sing all night long until they fall asleep. Just don't get me involved.But will be super boring for them.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 115K
[3DS] 65K
[WIU] 25K
[XB1] 115K
[3DS] 65K
[WIU] 25K
slavesnyder
Member
Reminds me more of the first sequence of the Spongebob Movie (with the promotion).Haha, like I said, didn't want to burst your bubble. Remember that one Spongebob episode where he goes "It's the best day ever!" but everything goes horribly wrong until the end? Yeah, didn't want that to happen.
https://youtu.be/8sYCucSFyj0
In NPD? Not likely. I dont think its art style appeals much to the general American gaming market whereas FFXV has been basically built around the idea of increasing western appeal.
You sure have disappeared form the NPD thread discussions lately. What gives? Might wanna check out some of the discussion on the last few pages before you finalize your predictions.
Will not happen in any part of the world. FF XV will sell much more.
slavesnyder
Member
Exactly. They left out the chicks and went totally dudebro.
Goddamn it, Snyder, what was that supposed to mean? Your sense of humor is very hard to comprehend sometimes.
slavesnyder
Member
Was only about "bursting the bubble" if you know the film you know how the promotion thing ends.Goddamn it, Snyder, what was that supposed to mean? Your sense of humor is very hard to comprehend sometimes.
If you have not see it - you should (the first movie of course)
unapersson
Member
The first few days of sales are always a bit misleading though, as they're the first few days + potentially months of pre-orders. So it gets an artificial boost.
Ah, gotcha. Didn't watch the movie, so I didn't get the reference.
Well yes that's true but that's also te reason for the UK figures Ryng posted from week 2. The decline is significantly less than industry norms which would imply it has a chance at some solid legs. Especially looking at how favorably it compares to Mario Kart.