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[womfalcs3]

I hope you aren't implying that you are part of the problem.

No. I use the official firmware. By games I mean like the PS1 games from the PS Store (I own two of those now) and original IP's (Like Beats).

 

[Paracelsus]

looks like the ps2 is slowly dying... finally

My thoughts exactly.

 

[CrisKre]

I hope that software sales pick up when good software is released (we haven't seen much in the past few weeks, while other consoles had one great game after another). It has proven already that it _can_ sell games.

You mean to say it can sell Monster Hunter and a long awaited Final Fantasy spinoff. =[

 

[Hcoregamer00]

i agree... pandora or not, Sony CAN fix the pirating situation if things turned super ugly and they needed to. Once hte psp store / ps network sharing hits the psp that may help. Right now it looks like Sony is taking the best homebrew ideas and putting them in the real firmware, trying to take away advantages.

Exactly, because like it or not piracy is linked to one thing, homebrew. If they could lock the exploits in the protection, then they could ensure software sales, especially if they made all games unplayable on the older firmware and they put the newest games with the newest firmware.

 

[Xeke]

Software is still strong though.



The PSP also competes with the iPod (video), Sony completely missed out the mp3 revolution and has now the chance to get back some of the market share.

I hope that software sales pick up when good software is released (we haven't seen much in the past few weeks, while other consoles had one great game after another). It has proven already that it _can_ sell games.

The PSP hardly competes with the iPod...

 

[jett]

So, PSP owners really them peglegs and eyepatches, huh?

 

[HK-47]

There is, have strong firmware and require all the new games to have the absolute newest firmware.

Sony could do something about the piracy, but it looks like they are watching it from far away just because it is pushing hardware, and hardware is profitable.

The piracy scene is so big now that it wont matter. The hackers have incentive to keep breaking the firmware even though it would be harder. Not to mention you'd screw the homebrew scene.

 

[Souldriver]

Well Sony might think that way, but think about the consumer. Would you be content with a devise that has no games comming out for it. There was widespread piracy on both PSX and PS2, but that didnt stop great software sales, so the flow of games developed on it never stopped. The PSP situation is completely diffrent, you just cant look to these charts and say good week PSP, because it simply isnt.

That's true too.
In some ways the PSP really is a failed platform. I think there's nothing to do about the peculiar situation the PSP is in: very strong hardware sales, zero software sales. The software market is DS'es territory.
I think Sony is just "enjoying" the situation as it is, at least it gives them some hardware profit. Third party support has gone down the shitter anyway, so they'll have to wait and hope that somewhere in the near future they can start with a clean plate and a new handheld. They'll have to pull a Nintendo though; getting back support from publishers who got burned in the previous generation.

 

[RamzaIsCool]

So if I understand this right, Sony is using the current piratable PSP as a Trojan horse. Let the consumer buy PSPs and hack them as much as they want, then Sony will release a super populair game KH/ MH:whatever with firmware that takes that away. Leaving millions of people with a machine they have to buy games for.

 

[DiddyBop]

Software is still strong though.



The PSP also competes with the iPod (video), Sony completely missed out the mp3 revolution and has now the chance to get back some of the market share.

I hope that software sales pick up when good software is released (we haven't seen much in the past few weeks, while other consoles had one great game after another). It has proven already that it _can_ sell games.

as i said before,this is pretty much the reason for poor software sales. even today,this girl at work said she's getting a psp,i said i didnt know you played games,she said she just likes how it looks and will use it for music and videos. you're being unrealistic if you think that even 3% of those ppl who bought a psp slim will use it for custom firmware.

CFW is so much more difficult on the psp slim when compared to the DS R4. just look at the tutorials for how to put CFW on a psp slim. will the avg consumer even understand what the hell is going on? no,its just the avg internet user/gamer who are savvy enough to do this,and they represent such a small part of the market that their piracy doesnt hurt sony.

ppl just seem to be using their PSPs for everything but games.

 

[Kuramu]

Just trying to imagine how far DS could go. Has DSL ever even had a pricedrop? What's the magic price for handhelds?

 

[HK-47]

That's true too.
In some ways the PSP really is a failed platform. I think there's nothing to do about the peculiar situation the PSP is in: very strong hardware sales, zero software sales. The software market is DS'es territory.
I think Sony is just "enjoying" the situation as it is, at least it gives them some hardware profit. Third party support has gone down the shitter anyway, so they'll have to wait and hope that somewhere in the near future they can start with a clean plate and a new handheld. They'll have to pull a Nintendo though; getting back support from publishers who got burned in the previous generation.

Eh I dont think Sony will have the trouble getting back support like Nintendo has, even the DS basically forced 3rd parties to support it. If Sony regains the dominate position next gen, the software will come much easier than Nintendo.

 

[HK-47]

Just trying to imagine how far DS could go. Has DSL ever even had a pricedrop? What's the magic price for handhelds?

It went up in price I believe

Magic number is $99

 

[Souldriver]

So if I understand this right, Sony is using the current piratable PSP as a Trojan horse. Let the consumer buy PSPs and hack them as much as they want, then Sony will release a super populair game KH/ MH:whatever with firmware that takes that away. Leaving millions of people with a machine they have to buy games for.

Maybe. But with this strategy (as you suggest) you really are bringing in the pirating crowd in your userbase. It would only take a few days before the new firmware is cracked again and pirating can continue. A DS can be pirated pretty easy too, but Nintendo is lucky the vast majority of their customers has no clue they can play games on it "for free". With the PSP it's the exact opposite situation: as of now practically only pirates are buying the handheld (going by the hardware/software ratio at least).

 

[Kuramu]

It went up in price I believe

Magic number is $99

In Japan I mean.

 

[iidesuyo]

The PSP hardly competes with the iPod...

Actually, it does. 4-8 GB is enough for most people to store enough mp3s and the PSP itself isn't that expensive. It's a multimedia machine not a barebone handheld.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 54.6 / 45.4, bringing the total shares to 74.0 / 26.0. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 72.6 weeks (May 8, 2009).

PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 27.2 / 72.8, bringing the total shares to 26.6 / 73.4. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 42.4 weeks (October 8, 2008).

PS2 vs DS: At this week's rates, DS catches up to PS2 in 1.0 weeks (December 23, 2007) at ~20.9 million units apiece.

At week 50, Nintendo passed 10 million units for the year. That bests last year's 9.7 million, and is pretty surely the first time a manufacturer has reached the 8th digit. EDIT: And with DS slowing down some, it may be a long time until we see it again.


Famitsu software pie data for the week of 2007-12-03. An oddball week for having X360 over PS3, and PSP over 10%.

DS: 44.8
Wii: 22.5
PS2: 13.1
PSP: 10.7
X360: 5.2
PS3: 3.4
Other: 0.3

I wonder when the DS will stop selling, last year numbers were higher than this, and the DS is now at PS2 LTD level, but the PS2 reached the 20M in its last "glorious" weeks, the DS may do another couple of years.

It's looking like this year for DS will end about a million below last year. If every year from now on it drops two million, it's still got a good 10 million to add to its total.

 

[RamzaIsCool]

Maybe. But with this strategy (as you suggest) you really are bringing in the pirating crowd in your userbase. It would only take a few days before the new firmware is cracked again and pirating can continue. A DS can be pirated pretty easy too, but Nintendo is lucky the vast majority of their customers has no clue they can play games on it "for free". With the PSP it's the exact opposite situation: as of now practically only pirates are buying the handheld (going by the hardware/software ratio at least).

Dunno about the DS part, hardware is a bit down from last year. But it will be intresting to see software comparison, software sales for the DS in 2006 was unbelieveble, maybe its me, but it seems down in 2007 by a much bigger margin then the HW figures.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

That's true too.
In some ways the PSP really is a failed platform. I think there's nothing to do about the peculiar situation the PSP is in: very strong hardware sales, zero software sales. The software market is DS'es territory.
I think Sony is just "enjoying" the situation as it is, at least it gives them some hardware profit. Third party support has gone down the shitter anyway, so they'll have to wait and hope that somewhere in the near future they can start with a clean plate and a new handheld. They'll have to pull a Nintendo though; getting back support from publishers who got burned in the previous generation.

The funny part is that if they wanted to, they could keep the PSP hardware well into the DS successor's lifecycle just because the DS2 will be at most, a portable gamecube. By then the PSP could be price dropped to $79-99 and have it compete with the DS successor until Sony releases another uber powerful handheld.

Granted, for this strategy to work, the console needs to be viable, and that means they need to have 3rd party software. Since that is impossible now that Nintendo has the 3rd party locked they are forced to go the Game Gear or Neo Geo Pocket route. That essentially means that they support the console for the next 8 years with sony software (1st party games), even that is impossible considering that even now the console gets slim pickings from Sony's Worldwide Studios.

It went up in price I believe

Magic number is $99

For the USA it is $79.99, the price which the GBA launched at. This means that Nintendo could sustain themselves in America for a VERY LONG TIME.

 

[gcfan2k5]

The funny part is that if they wanted to, they could keep the PSP hardware well into the DS successor's lifecycle just because the DS2 will be at most, a portable gamecube. By then the PSP could be price dropped to $79-99 and have it compete with the DS successor until Sony releases another uber powerful handheld.

Granted, for this strategy to work, the console needs to be viable, and that means they need to have 3rd party software. Since that is impossible now that Nintendo has the 3rd party locked they are forced to go the Game Gear or Neo Geo Pocket route. That essentially means that they support the console for the next 8 years with sony software (1st party games), even that is impossible considering that even now the console gets slim pickings from Sony's Worldwide Studios.



For the USA it is $79.99, the price which the GBA launched at. This means that Nintendo could sustain themselves in America for a VERY LONG TIME.

I couldve sworn i bought a GBA for $99.99 on day one....

 

[donny2112]

I couldve sworn i bought a GBA for $99.99 on day one....

I don't know about you, but I did.

The Wii in 2007 is looking a lot like the DS in 2005, except two weeks behind. If that holds, next week could be ~300K for the Wii.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

I couldve sworn i bought a GBA for $99.99 on day one....

Oh, my bad.

The GBA did launch at $99.99, but didn't hit the sweet spot until it hit $79.99

There

 

[noonche]

no,its just the avg internet user/gamer who are savvy enough to do this,and they represent such a small part of the market that their piracy doesnt hurt sony.

Not to be a broken record, but I don't think you get it. Even if the percentage of pirating users is low, they can still have a dramatic effect on sales. Who do you think Rockman Rockman, Gokumakaimura, Jeanne D'Arc, Brave Story, etc where targeted at? The hardcore. The gamer. The very 3% that is likely to know how to pirate games...

Giant franchises with casual appeal aren't in a lot of danger from piracy, it's the smaller ones that are.

 

[gcfan2k5]

I don't know about you, but I did.


http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f64/donny2112/Sales Numbers/JPNConsoles-18.png

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f64/donny2112/Sales Numbers/JPNHandhelds-20.png


The Wii in 2007 is looking a lot like the DS in 2005, except two weeks behind.

Holy shit end year graphs are insanely cluttered:lol

Any chance of releasing bar graph versions for those of us whos brains hurt looking at that?

 

[donny2112]

Oh, my bad.

The GBA did launch at $99.99, but didn't hit the sweet spot until it hit $79.99

There

What? It was in the middle of the sweet spot its whole life. :lol

 

[Hcoregamer00]

What? It was in the middle of the sweet spot its whole life. :lol

Not when you consider that 33 million of the 80 million GBA's were sold in America, a country that stuck with the Gameboy Advance long into the DS's life.

 

[PantherLotus]

Holy shit end year graphs are insanely cluttered:lol

Any chance of releasing bar graph versions for those of us whos brains hurt looking at that?

one moment my chart-overwhelmed friend. I will whelm you in a moment.

 

[gcfan2k5]

one moment my chart-overwhelmed friend. I will whelm you in a moment.

Thank you very much Im pretty new to sales-age, only found GAF a year ago.

 

[blitz64]

If they release a bundle with a new color/model, watch DS sales rise to the sky.

I read somewhere that Nintendo already has a remodel smaller DS ready to be release. I think the story was on *******, the new model doesn't have a gba slot. It'll probably release around mid 2008.

 

[donny2112]

Not when you consider that 33 million of the 80 million GBA's were sold in America, a country that stuck with the Gameboy Advance long into the DS's life.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=4112

The GBA dropped to $79.99 in September 2004, ahead of the DS release in the U.S.

Average U.S. Monthly sales from launch until August 2004: 571K
Average U.S. Monthly sales from Sept-04 until DSL launch: 446K

You were saying something?

 

[gcfan2k5]

I read somewhere that Nintendo already has a remodel smaller DS ready to be release. I think the story was on *******, the new model doesn't have a gba slot. It'll probably release around mid 2008.

That will eventually happen im sure, im betting on a DQ9 bundle at normal retail price next year (DQ9 free basically) with an exclusive color.... would send DS sales up higher than anyone could imagine.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

I read somewhere that Nintendo already has a remodel smaller DS ready to be release. I think the story was on *******, the new model doesn't have a gba slot. It'll probably release around mid 2008.

Not that it matters, how many people who don't own a DS right now would care if there was a smaller DS sans GBA slot for a slightly lower price.

Not many.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=4112

The GBA dropped to $79.99 in September 2004, ahead of the DS release in the U.S.

Average U.S. Monthly sales from launch until August 2004: 571K
Average U.S. Monthly sales from Sept-04 until DSL launch: 446K

You were saying something?

Yes, I certainly was.

The price drop increased the life of the console and it increase the lifespan of the GBA in light of the DS. A drop on a monthly basis by that much considering a successor handheld was on the horizon is quite small.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Dunno about the DS part, hardware is a bit down from last year. But it will be intresting to see software comparison, software sales for the DS in 2006 was unbelieveble, maybe its me, but it seems down in 2007 by a much bigger margin then the HW figures.

To get as apples-to-apples as possible, I'll try and get the sum of all DS games in the weekly Famitsu Top 30 for the first 48 weeks of both years. This may be a bit off from actual in that there are a few instances where I could figure out sales for weeks where they dipped off the top 30 for a week or such things; but it should be close enough and off similarly for both years.

2006: 23.2 million
2007: 20.3 million

Down, but by about the same amount as hardware.

 

[Zombie James]

Holy shit, over 400K handheld units in a week...

 

[jesusraz]

Goodbye No More Heroes...and wow at We Love Golf and Soul Calibur Legends not even making the Top 50! :/ Nice to see Resi: UC clinging on still, though.

 

[donny2112]

Yes, I certainly was.

The price drop increased the life of the console and it increase the lifespan of the GBA in light of the DS. A drop on a monthly basis by that much considering a successor handheld was on the horizon is quite small.

That's not what you were saying, though. You were saying that the GBA didn't hits its sweet spot until it hit $79.99. That view is less than correct.

 

[PantherLotus]

 

[Hcoregamer00]

That's not what you were saying, though. You were saying that the GBA didn't hits its sweet spot until it hit $79.99. That view is less than correct.

Okay, that was a stretch to say the sweet spot was $80, I should have said the sweet spot was the first hardware revision.

Which I know is quite correct.

Since you know the numbers, what was the total LTD of the console before the price drop and the LTD of the console after the price drop?

 

[gcfan2k5]

Panther, what do you use to make your charts and graphs? Much easier on the eyes thanks

 

[Jiggy]

Portables owning the hardware charts always makes me happy.

The funny part is that if they wanted to, they could keep the PSP hardware well into the DS successor's lifecycle just because the DS2 will be at most, a portable gamecube. By then the PSP could be price dropped to $79-99 and have it compete with the DS successor until Sony releases another uber powerful handheld.

Granted, for this strategy to work, the console needs to be viable, and that means they need to have 3rd party software. Since that is impossible now that Nintendo has the 3rd party locked they are forced to go the Game Gear or Neo Geo Pocket route. That essentially means that they support the console for the next 8 years with sony software (1st party games), even that is impossible considering that even now the console gets slim pickings from Sony's Worldwide Studios.

I don't know if it's impossible. Wasn't the original Game Boy slumping until the original Pokemon games were released and revived it for a few more years?
...Oh, wait. I guess I just defeated my own argument since there very likely may never be anything that sells quite like Pokemon R/G/B again. Never mind, nothing to see here, move on.

 

[PantherLotus]

Panther, what do you use to make your charts and graphs? Much easier on the eyes thanks

talent and a keen sense of decorating

 

[donny2112]

I should have said the sweet spot was the first hardware revision.

While sales did pick up with the GBASP release, they were super awesome before it, too. I still say the "sweet spot" for the GBA was its whole life and at whatever price it happened to be at that time.

In contrast, the "sweet spot" for the DS was the DSLite release, and its price didn't change then, either.

Since you know the numbers, what was the total LTD of the console before the price drop and the LTD of the console after the price drop?

There were a lot more months before the price drop for the GBASP than after.

 

[nextgeneration]

talent and a keen sense of decorating

Good one! :lol

 

[gcfan2k5]

talent and a keen sense of decorating

:lol I meant what program is used for the creation of charts and graphs. Got any graphs about software sales by publisher?

 

[Gahiggidy]

3. WII   -   170,558 |   115,057 | 3,311,401 |  4,231,044
...
8. NGC   -        32 |        46 |    10,495 |  4,179,963

Wow. How long exactly did that take? 55 weeks? I know its been on sale for 379 days.

Also, can we assume from here on out that every new buyer of Nintendo's console is not a Nintendo fanboy?

 

[Hcoregamer00]

While sales did pick up with the GBASP release, they were super awesome before it, too. I still say the "sweet spot" for the GBA was its whole life and at whatever price it happened to be at that time.

In contrast, the "sweet spot" for the DS was the DSLite release, and its price didn't change then, either.

That is where I know that you are slightly incorrect.

The DS had a price drop when from $149.99 to $129.99 at around the same time as the DS Lite was launched. I know that because the DS was the most expensive handheld I ever bought (until I picked up the $170 PSP.)

3. WII   -   170,558 |   115,057 | 3,311,401 |  4,231,044
...
8. NGC   -        32 |        46 |    10,495 |  4,179,963

Wow. How long exactly did that take? 55 weeks? I know its been on sale for 379 days.

Also, can we assume from here on out that every new buyer of Nintendo's console is not a Nintendo fanboy?

To go from Worst to first is definitely a cinderella story.

Hopefully it doesn't turn around the same way the SNES did later on in the "16 bit generation"

 

[PantherLotus]

:lol I meant what program is used for the creation of charts and graphs. Got any graphs about software sales by publisher?

excel / photoshop / no

 

[gcfan2k5]

excel / photoshop / no

:lol Ok thanks. Crazy how high Wii has been compared to PS3 in Japan.

 

[donny2112]

The purpose of the graphs I post is to provide context to the raw sales numbers at significant points in the hardware's life cycle. For the handheld graph, it's had a lot of significant points over the last three years. For the console graph, there's been a lot of bumping going on since October which necessitates more notes. I do clean out older, less important notes when I expand the graphs out in time, but the notes are necessay to provide historical context.

Knowing that the Wii jumped to > 100K in late July isn't nearly as useful as also knowing that the increase in supply coincided with Dragon Quest Swords's release. If you don't find it useful, that's fine. If no one found it useful, I wouldn't be posting it here.

 

[PantherLotus]

The purpose of the graphs I post is to provide context to the raw sales numbers at significant points in the hardware's life cycle. For the handheld graph, it's had a lot of significant points over the last three years. For the console graph, there's been a lot of bumping going on since October which necessitates more notes. I do clean out older, less important notes when I expand the graphs out in time, but the notes are necessay to provide historical context.

Knowing that the Wii jumped to > 100K in late July isn't nearly as useful as also knowing that the increase in supply coincided with Dragon Quest Swords's release. If you don't find it useful, that's fine. If no one found it useful, I wouldn't be posting it here.

donny2112
actual talent
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