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Media Create Sales 12/17 - 12/23 2007

jgwhiteus

Member
On the PSP's profitability - even if the hardware is selling at a profit now, it's harder to tell if the PSP has been or will be a profitable venture for Sony overall. I guess we never get a sense of how Sony systems break down by revenue and profit in their financial reports; PS2 has obviously been a major cash cow for the past few years (but even it had to have major profits for a few years to make back the losses for its first few); the PS3 not so much. I'm guessing the PSP was sold at a loss for its first year or two and there were probably major R&D costs involved.

Even if Sony's happy with current hardware sales (and they should be), they can't let the software situation remain the same for the next few years if they want to make their money back - I thought the PSP was a traditional "razor & blades" product where software licensing revenue is depended upon to make up for earlier hardware losses and costs. Unless Sony's making extreme profits on each hardware unit sold, they won't make back their initial costs unless software sales pick up (or hardware costs go down and they somehow keep the price the same, which I doubt they can do).

Of course, maybe like the XBox the PSP is meant to introduce Sony to the market and set the stage for PSP2 - but it's hard to imagine what the PSP2 would look like. Stronger firmware protections, almost certainly. But would it have as many multimedia capabilities as the PSP, if one of the perceived "weaknesses" of the PSP is that people buy it as a multimedia device rather than a gaming machine? At the same time I can't imagine them releasing a successor with less functionality than the original...who knows.
 

tanod

when is my burrito
swerve said:
I picked it up today. Breaks down thusly:

All game VO is in English (making the game entirely playable)
Subtitles only in Japanese
Objectives only in Japanese (probably the biggest issue, but there's always a yellow dot telling you where to go next, so it doesn't really matter)
Options only in Japanese

So, basically, all text is Japanese only, but the majority of the game seems driven by the VO script. Which is surprisingly good, actually.

360 or PS3?
 

Laguna

Banned
StarOcean did better than expected? I don´t think so. It´s published by SQEX it has no competition and its first shipment was 200k. It pretty much did what most expected. Not bad at all but not surprising.
 

Rock_Man

Member
donny2112 said:
It was posted at 2ch with the other numbers that were posted here, but as Kurosaki Ichigo pointed out recently, some games tend to not make the jump from there to here for some reason.

Which only makes your chart even more important. :)
 

Meier

Member
I expected better out of Nodame (not a ton, but better for sure). I need to finish the series... only thing that has grabbed me in years.
 

ethelred

Member
legend166 said:
Means that Iwata doesn't care. The PSP, software wise, is just not competition for the DS. Why ethelred keeps pushing it as a healthy, viable software platform, I don't know.

"Healthy" might be pushing it. I'm not sure that I implied that. That has a connotation of an across-the-board strength that I never indicated was there. I also never took the system and made a direct software comparison between it and the DS because, quite obviously, the DS kills it in total software sales.

But viable? Certainly. You don't think that it can be a viable system for publishers? That the right type of games can sell there? Go take a look at the average and median sales for certain publishers on the system; they're not that bad. Why do you think Square Enix's PSP support is steadily increasing rather than withering away? Why do you think Kojima is readily committing to continue bringing new MGS games to the system? If it's not a viable platform, why do Gundam and Tales games continue to do well on it, the latter even outperforming how the series does on the market leading console, the DS?

Are Star Ocean's first day sales bad? People just spent an entire thread trying to convince me that Final Fantasy IV's 280~k opening week is great. Now we've got a remake of a much less popular series, one handled by a much lower tier team (presumably Tose vs. Matrix), and one with virtually no creative direction from within the real development side (where Takashi Tokita and Hiroyuki Ito were heavily involved with FFIV DS, tri-Ace has completely disavowed involvement with SO). Now we see it get 80k in first day sales compared to FFIV's 180k in first day sales. Is it a failure? Is it being hamstrung by being on the PSP? I'd say at a minimum we'll see it go to 200~k -- is that bad for a remake of a game in a series where the main installments usually cap out at around 700k?

What about Haruhi? Licensed anime game, yeah, but it sure beats that 1k opening Nodame Cantabile on Wii got...
 

Jokeropia

Member
bcn-ron said:
It's true that the share is shifting in favor of the Wii just now (PS3 share approaches 19.5% if this week's trends continue forever), but it's easy to find explanations for these current motions, such as:
*the festive season probably pulls the market towards family entertainment
*Wii Fit spike > GT5 Prologue spike
It's also the case that Wii continues to track ahead of PS2 while PS3 is still tracking behind GCN.
 

ethelred

Member
Hey, those two years and millions of dollars have given Square Enix a very nice engine that they're clearly intent now on exploiting to create more visually stunning games that'll go on to sell really, really well. I'd say things are working out pretty well for them there.

'Course, they're seeing success even outside of those "spend millions of dollars and two years" games, as Final Fantasy Tactics: The War of the Lions (which, last I checked, was despite being a port doing a pretty good job selling on par with Square Enix's new DS Final Fantasy SRPGs) and Star Ocean show.

My whole point was that, for a third party publisher, there's a really good roadmap towards achieving successful (sometimes very successful) sales on the PSP (something that, for a third party publisher, does not exist for the Wii, which is a platform that is proving very mercurial and unpredictable in its third party sales when they're at all positive). We know that certain franchises have done very well for it, and we can look at individual game performances to derive future success from certain other brands and types of game. A smart publisher should absolutely be looking to it as a supplement to the market leading console (which is where the focus of their efforts should be), because frankly, it's pretty easy to not only gauge which software will perform well, it's easy to come up with new software that'll reliably succeed too.
 

Defuser

Member
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
First day sales

PS2 Super Robot Taisen Original Generation Gaiden - 150k (135k regular, 15k LE)
PSP Star Ocean: The First Departure - 80k (75k regular (200k shipment), 5k LE (10k shipment))
PSP Suzumiya Haruhi no Yakusoku - 62k (17k regular, 45k LE)
PS3 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare - 14k (20k shipment, 70% sell through)
360 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare - 14k (20k shipment, 70% sell through)
360 Gundam Musou International - 3k
WII Nodame Cantabile: Dream * Orchestra - 1k
WII Metal Slug Complete - <1k
WII Anime Slot Revolution: Pachi-Slot Kidou Senshi Gundam II - Ai Senshi Hen - <1k
This will be a interesting MC next week :lol
 

cvxfreak

Member
Hasn't everyone learned that there are multiple avenues of "success" in this gaming industry? That includes the polarizing nature of SE's success stories as ethelred labeled above, the success of one or both sides in the hardware-software relationship (like the PSP), the success of one or both sides of the first-third party relationship (like the Wii, GC and N64), the lure of one market segment at the expense of another (the Wii, again), good performance in all or a few regions (the latter being the Xbox 360), and the complete and utter dominance of one platform (DS, PS2). I think succeeding in one aspect counts for something.

Everything is so relative that blanket statements really aren't necessary anymore. The GC would have killed for the PSP's current hardware sales, and the PSP would have killed for the N64's several million selling titles. The PS3 would kill for the consistency of the GC in cranking out games that sold more than 300K.
 

donny2112

Member
GreenGlowingGoo said:
The DS version of the Nodame game sold pretty well... Not that that does much for the Wii. Still, 1k? That's pretty sad.

The PS2 Nodame Cantabile sold 4K in its first week and didn't even make the Top 30 when it released in July.
 

Meier

Member
ethelred said:
But viable? Certainly. You don't think that it can be a viable system for publishers? That the right type of games can sell there?

The right type of games can sell fairly well compared to the type of games that aren't 'right' for it. History has shown that it's only a viable if you're from an established Playstation (Monster Hunter kind of straddles the line on this one) or otaku-friendly franchise.
 

Culex

Banned
So now that the Wii is at about 4.5 million in Japan, when will it eclipse the N64? Is that at 5.5 million or somewhere around there?
 

Dragon

Banned
Jokeropia said:
It's also the case that Wii continues to track ahead of PS2 while PS3 is still tracking behind GCN.

It's also the case that the PS3 is between double and triple the cost of the GCN.

But then again, price doesn't matter, as long as you have good games it's all gravy! Er *looks at Wii, looks at PS3* *is confused*
 

Leezard

Member
TheBranca18 said:
It's also the case that the PS3 is between double and triple the cost of the GCN.

But then again, price doesn't matter, as long as you have good games it's all gravy! Er *looks at Wii, looks at PS3* *is confused*

Exactly. $99 Gamecube didn't win.

Nongames are games in the eyes of the nongamers.
 

Culex

Banned
Leezard said:
Exactly. $99 Gamecube didn't win.

Nongames are games in the eyes of the nongamers.

...but it won for that one month with pricedrop and..... er..... that's about it.
 

Eteric Rice

Member
TheBranca18 said:
It's also the case that the PS3 is between double and triple the cost of the GCN.

But then again, price doesn't matter, as long as you have good games it's all gravy! Er *looks at Wii, looks at PS3* *is confused*

The Wii has Galaxy.

Which is like, the best game ever.
 

ethelred

Member
Jonnyram said:
Nah, it'll be the same as this week, but with Super Robot Wars sneaking in somewhere.

Where "somewhere" is defined as "below Mario Party DS."

jgwhiteus said:
Is 200K lifetime enough for a PSP game to turn a profit?

For most games, probably.

jgwhiteus said:
360 in Japan - just no. I find it hard to believe that any Japan-only release (if they exist) has come close to a profit there.

I'm sure Namco's laughing about Idolmaster all the way to the bank. That thing is pure profit. And once they follow its roadmap to success -- load up Vesperia with for-pay DLC skits and costumes -- I'm sure they'll be even happier!
 

jgwhiteus

Member
ethelred said:
"Healthy" might be pushing it. I'm not sure that I implied that. That has a connotation of an across-the-board strength that I never indicated was there. I also never took the system and made a direct software comparison between it and the DS because, quite obviously, the DS kills it in total software sales.

But viable? Certainly. You don't think that it can be a viable system for publishers? That the right type of games can sell there? Go take a look at the average and median sales for certain publishers on the system; they're not that bad. Why do you think Square Enix's PSP support is steadily increasing rather than withering away? Why do you think Kojima is readily committing to continue bringing new MGS games to the system? If it's not a viable platform, why do Gundam and Tales games continue to do well on it, the latter even outperforming how the series does on the market leading console, the DS?

Are Star Ocean's first day sales bad? People just spent an entire thread trying to convince me that Final Fantasy IV's 280~k opening week is great. Now we've got a remake of a much less popular series, one handled by a much lower tier team (presumably Tose vs. Matrix), and one with virtually no creative direction from within the real development side (where Takashi Tokita and Hiroyuki Ito were heavily involved with FFIV DS, tri-Ace has completely disavowed involvement with SO). Now we see it get 80k in first day sales compared to FFIV's 180k in first day sales. Is it a failure? Is it being hamstrung by being on the PSP? I'd say at a minimum we'll see it go to 200~k -- is that bad for a remake of a game in a series where the main installments usually cap out at around 700k?

What about Haruhi? Licensed anime game, yeah, but it sure beats that 1k opening Nodame Cantabile on Wii got...

I agree that predicting the PSP's doom and gloom is a bit shortsighted in the face of its hardware sales. Even if PSP appears to have a smaller percentage of game buyers than other machines, the fact that it keeps on selling extremely well counteracts that - I mean, even 10% of 200K new owners being dedicated game buyers is a lot better than 50% of 10K new owners for the 360 in Japan, for example. And in the end, even "second place" consoles can still do well software-sales wise - they still get great games, and can even turn a profit (heck the GC did it in third place with pretty abysmal sales).

At the same time, if we try to think of how publishers view the system, the PSP's got some obstacles to overcome. FFIVr's sales might not have been "great" (and I think few people actually thought they were "great"; maybe lower than expectations but still good and better than the majority of previous remakes), but 280K units first week is pretty much guaranteed profit straight out the gate. Is 200K lifetime enough for a PSP game to turn a profit? (I don't know - Nintendo claims an average 100K=profit for DS figure; PSP seems like it would be higher). We can try to justify a game's sales or lack of sales by talking about the series' popularity or the time of its release date or the quality of the creative team involved, etc. but in the end I think the only thing publishers care about is 1. how much it cost to make and 2. how much it sold. Those 1K Wii sales are abysmal no matter how much you try to spin the fact that they were crap games with low expectations - it's impossible to turn a profit on sales that low. But the same standard applies to all systems.

But you're right - smart publishers will find good profit opportunities with the large userbase - it's just more difficult to convince the majority to take the risk (and I'd say this equally applies to the Wii/PS3 at the moment. 360 in Japan - just no. I find it hard to believe that any Japan-only release (if they exist) has come close to a profit there).
 

Jokeropia

Member
TheBranca18 said:
It's also the case that the PS3 is between double and triple the cost of the GCN.
So? Sony made it that expensive to produce by choice. They included lots of expensive things in attempt to increase the value, which also forced them to increase the cost.
 

DiddyBop

Member
DeaconKnowledge said:
The reality of the PSP situation is that the PSP as a game system is not what's selling all these units. It's the media capabilities that are pushing the system. Piracy has never buoyed a platform to hardware success on its own and the PSP is no different. PSP sales are indicative of a media hub that happens to play games, not a games machine that happens to be a convergence device.

I think the bigger question would be why a developer would look to the PSP as a solid platform for a major title over the Wii long term.

QFT, ive been trying to say this for weeks. The DS is ten times easier to pirate and im sure the % of pirated DS is higher than pirated psp's. just because the internet crowd pirates the Ds does not mean the general public does at the same percentage. people just use their psp for the multi media capabilities. i have several friends who only have maybe one or no games and jus use it to watch videos and listen to music on the go.
 

Dash Kappei

Not actually that important
ethelred said:
I'm well aware of the numbers. Comparing this full remake to straight ports is kinda dumb, to be honest. The only real comparison point there is FFIII and it's underperforming that by a lot.

Wow, you do really fail at logic man.


botticus said:
Comparing it to previous iterations is dumb, yet comparing it only to a game never before revisited isn't? Looking at it in context, it is understandably doing worse than the latter, and better than the former (which is good, since as you have mentioned, more work was put into it).

Ditto.
 
Oh, I forgot to post last night's new Famitsu software pie data, for the week of 2007-12-10

DS: 46.0
Wii: 27.2
PS2: 9.4
PS3: 7.6
PSP: 6.6
X360: 2.7
Other: 0.4

bcn-ron said:
Uh, isn't that contradictory, kind of?
Did the Gamecube ever scratch 25% market share? Counting LTDs and current-gen home consoles only, the PS3 is a hair above 24% now. I find it hard to believe that the Gamecube ever managed to do that, but I don't have the data.
I mean that individually Wii has behaved much like PS2 and PS3 has behaved much like GCN. However, the difference to the current situation we're in is that they released at the same time, rather than the leading console having a head start.

This one is rarely used, but here's PS2 vs GCN from Famitsu. After GCN's launch week, PS2 still had a 4.8 million unit lead and 97.4% of the total market between them. The highest percent of the total PS2/GCN market that GCN ever achieved was 19.1%, but then it started trending down again. I doubt PS3 will ever get such a low total percentage as GCN had at its best due to this.
Culex said:
So now that the Wii is at about 4.5 million in Japan, when will it eclipse the N64? Is that at 5.5 million or somewhere around there?
Indeed. The last time they gave a number, it was 5.54 million.

If Wii continues behaving like a big holiday PS2 for the next couple weeks, it'll probably be around 5 million in a couple weeks. Taking the comparison a bit further, and knowing SSBB is in late January, I'm guessing early February for taking over N64.
 

Jokeropia

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
Oh, I forgot to post last night's new Famitsu software pie data, for the week of 2007-12-10

DS: 46.0
Wii: 27.2
PS2: 9.4
PS3: 7.6
PSP: 6.6
X360: 2.7
Other: 0.4
Wii > PS2 + PS3 + PSP + X360 + Other.
 

donny2112

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
Indeed. The last time they gave a number, it was 5.54 million.

I love that they shipped 1 console to Japan that last year. Just goes to show how dedicated Nintendo is to its fans.

Nintendo: We've stopped shipping N64s to Japan. We're staying at 5,539,999 consoles.
Die-Hard Fan living under a rock since 1995: Can't you ship just one more, so I can buy one.
Nintendo: Well... OK.
 

Dragon

Banned
Jokeropia said:
So? Sony made it that expensive to produce by choice. They included lots of expensive things in attempt to increase the value, which also forced them to increase the cost.

Who cares why it's expensive. I just think it's stupid to constantly compare the two of them to bash the PS3 and act like Captain Planet and the Planeteers with the whole "Go Wii" thing. But then again what do I know?
 
donny2112 said:
I love that they shipped 1 console to Japan that last year. Just goes to show how dedicated Nintendo is to its fans.

Nintendo: We've stopped shipping N64s to Japan. We're staying at 5,539,999 consoles.
Die-Hard Fan living under a rock since 1995: Can't you ship just one more, so I can buy one.
Nintendo: Well... OK.
Ahaha. I forgot about that, but now that you can actually see the numbers instead of not being able to tell the difference in an image I should explain. If a number is quite round, it's an actual total they gave out. If I had to do a bit of the math myself, I'd offset it by an additional 1; pretty useless, but a way to mark that it's not actually a number they gave, and if they'd given a total for the time perhaps they'd have rounded differently. So for these N64 numbers it worked out something like...

2003: 5.54 million
2002: Above - 0 - 1
2001: Above - 50,000 - 1
2000: Above - 200,000 - 1
1999: Above - 940,000 - 1

and so on.
 
Meier said:
The right type of games can sell fairly well compared to the type of games that aren't 'right' for it. History has shown that it's only a viable if you're from an established Playstation (Monster Hunter kind of straddles the line on this one) or otaku-friendly franchise.

The success of MHP is way more than just the reason of "established Playstation". This downgrade port actually outsold the original game by more than 3 times. The MH series actually shines on the PSP, not PS2.

There are actually some potentials in certain specific type of game genres for PSP that most game publishers have not fully explored.
 

Dragon

Banned
Jokeropia said:
The point is that being expensive is not an unfair disadvantage for the PS3 vs. the Gamecube. It was a deliberate design choice by Sony.

So it should be ignored? I don't agree with that. At all.
 

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
ethelred said:
What about Haruhi? Licensed anime game, yeah, but it sure beats that 1k opening Nodame Cantabile on Wii got...
Haruhi has a lot stronger merchandise-buying fanbase than Nodame. Haruhi anything will cater to its otaku fans.
 
TheBranca18 said:
Who cares why it's expensive. I just think it's stupid to constantly compare the two of them to bash the PS3 and act like Captain Planet and the Planeteers with the whole "Go Wii" thing. But then again what do I know?

Because at the end of the day only its sales will help its software sales will appease third parties.

Not to mention that PS3 has always been cheaper in Japan, and the cheapest console never wins. So making it "duh price" is losing 90% of the picture here.

TheBranca18 said:
So it should be ignored? I don't agree with that. At all.

I think everyone is clear on what happened with PS3's pricing.

It's not E3 2006 anymore, we should be discussing the ramifications of the current situation, not its causes.

Fun Fact: I think most people expect PS3 to ultimately outsell the GameCube.
 

Jokeropia

Member
TheBranca18 said:
So it should be ignored? I don't agree with that. At all.
You can recognize it as much as you like, it just doesn't change or even mitigate the fact that PS3 is doing worse than Gamecube.
Shikamaru Ninja said:
Does anyone/anysite keep Wii/DS software ltd for Japan?
JoshuaJSlone's site:
http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamecharting/testsoftware.php?platform=Wii&weeknum=55
http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamecharting/testsoftware.php?platform=DS&weeknum=159

Moor-Angol's site:
http://www.japan-gamecharts.com
 

Dragon

Banned
Jokeropia said:
You can recognize it as much as you like, it just doesn't change or even mitigate the fact that PS3 is doing worse than Gamecube.

Well I guess it comes down to looking at facts in a vacuum. Something I don't agree with.

I wasn't trying to spin it at all. I know the PS3 is doing poorly, but I guess the reasons have been discussed ad nauseum and aren't interesting anymore.
 

Deku

Banned
cvxfreak said:
Hasn't everyone learned that there are multiple avenues of "success" in this gaming industry? That includes the polarizing nature of SE's success stories as ethelred labeled above, the success of one or both sides in the hardware-software relationship (like the PSP), the success of one or both sides of the first-third party relationship (like the Wii, GC and N64), the lure of one market segment at the expense of another (the Wii, again), good performance in all or a few regions (the latter being the Xbox 360), and the complete and utter dominance of one platform (DS, PS2). I think succeeding in one aspect counts for something.

Everything is so relative that blanket statements really aren't necessary anymore. The GC would have killed for the PSP's current hardware sales, and the PSP would have killed for the N64's several million selling titles. The PS3 would kill for the consistency of the GC in cranking out games that sold more than 300K.

We've flipped over to a new paradigm for at least a couple of years now, in the context of the Japanese market.

The problem is that MC commentators usually either don't care about the Japanese market, react to 1st day numbers, string along a bunch of ad hoc arguments to incomplete 'snapshot' sales number, is trolling, or all of the above.

I don't think we need to qualify the PSPs success as a secondary platform as ethel so eloquently said, but considering the DS' success is often qualified when its hardware AND software numbers are both unprecendented, I have to ask in jest if the PSP has bested the GC's LTD yet.

And you know, next week, some random newbie or the more brazen crop of juniors will be in here qualifying the DS' success yet again. Clearly, we have people who still think the last two years of the market in Japan is some sort nightmare for the PlayStation and an aberration. When we can get rid of those comments, perhaps we'll have better MC threads.
 

Rock_Man

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
Oh, I forgot to post last night's new Famitsu software pie data, for the week of 2007-12-10

DS: 46.0
Wii: 27.2
PS2: 9.4
PS3: 7.6
PSP: 6.6
X360: 2.7
Other: 0.4

Week of 2007-12-17 (Dengeki)
DS: 56.8
Wii: 22.5

Total software sales were 4.018 million meaning DS software sales were 2.28 million in one week.
 
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