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[Road]

Famitsu leak on htmk73:

New games:
4. [NDS] Prince of Tennis - 45,400 (83%)
6. [NDS] Quiz Magic Academy DS - 40,200 (52%)
9. [WII] Zangeki no Reginleiv - 22,900 (78%)
10. [NDS] Dragon Ball: Origins 2 - 19,400 (28%)
11. [PS3] Sacred 2 - 18,900 (84%)
11. [360] Sacred 2 - 13,100 (92%)
16. [NDS] Lupin the 3rd - 11,500 (76%)
18. [PSP] SOCOM: U.S. Navy SEALs Portable - 9,600 (58%)
28. [WII] MadWorld - 4,600 (31%)
30. [NDS] Minna no Konbini - 4,200 (35%)

Some old:
1. [PSP] God Eater - 104,800 / 380,900 (92%)
8. [PS3] Star Ocean 4 - 23,700 / 108,600 (70%)
15. [PS3] End of Eternity - 12,100 / 166,700 (93%)
20. [PSP] Kingdom Hearts: BBS - 9,200 / 698,900 (97%)
24. [PS3] MAG: Massive Action Game - 5,600 / 29,900 (86%)
26. [WII] Resident Evil: The Darkside Chronicles - 5,000 / 118,600 (95%)
33. [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII - 3,600 / 1,874,700 (98%)
38. [PS3] Ar Tonelico 3 - 3,400 / 98,400 (90%)
47. [360] End of Eternity - 2,700 / 37,100 (91%)

 

[Jonnyram]

Now, now, I'm ready to defend any claim that the title should do better considering the development time and production values, but it is most certainly not a "big budget game" by any stretch of the imagination.

Big was definitely the wrong word. Perhaps I should have said significant. I reckon it'll need to sell 100k to break even, minimum.

 

[Chris1964]

Those first day numbers were very close with some games. Possibly fake but that guy who made them up had good estimates for sales and shipments.

 

[RurouniZel]

Alright, Ar Tonelico 3 creepin' up to 100,000! Go go go!

 

[duckroll]

Big was definitely the wrong word. Perhaps I should have said significant. I reckon it'll need to sell 100k to break even, minimum.

Well, since it's more relevant to this week's thread rather than last week's thread, I'll repeat what I said here. Reginleiv's manpower (size of core dev team) and general production values (voice acting, size of cast, amount of content) is comparable to a main Nippon Ichi game (Disgaea, Phantom Kingdom, Soul Cradle, etc). There are about 20+ core development team members, and including outsourced content developers, artists, musicians and so on the overall team is a little over 50 people.

The difference is that Nippon Ichi's games sell about 100k on average each (main team games, not the other shit that bomb all the time), and they take about a year to develop. Reginleiv is not going to sell anything close to that, and it took Sandlot 3 years to develop. Adding to the development costs is the setup and upkeep of the servers for the free online play.

Now, I'm not saying that Reginleiv probably needs to sell 300k to be profitable. That's nonsense. If it can sell 50k, it's probably close to breaking even since Japanese games from small studios cost really little to make. But I'm simply illustrating a point that this is by no means something which Nintendo should be proud of or that can be considered successful for the publisher in any logical view.

 

[Chris1964]

[PSP] Valkyria Chronicles 2: Gallia Military Academy (Sega) - 101.282 / 101.282 / 73,00%
[PSP] Valkyria Chronicles 2: Gallia Military Academy (Sega) - 22.608 / 123.890 / 81,00%
[PSP] Valkyria Chronicles 2: Gallia Military Academy (Sega) - 8.446 / 132.336 / 86,40%
[PSP] Valkyria Chronicles 2: Gallia Military Academy (Sega) - 4.600 / 136.900 / 89,00%

Valkyria Chronicles 2 has yet to sell its first shipment.

 

[Kenka]

Famitsu leak on htmk73:

Ctrl + F : モンスターハンター トライ

But it looks quite likely now that NSMB will go past Poké Pearl/Diamond and become the best selling DS game ever in Japan.

edit : Samurai Warriors

 

[onken]

Not bad 2nd week for God Eater.

 

[vicissitudes]

Media Create week 2

[360] Star Ocean: The Last Hope (Square Enix) - 17.012 / 179.244
[PS3] Star Ocean: The Last Hope - International (Square Enix) - 26.000 / 98.000

Hmm after seeing this...SO4 PS3 legs are pretty good!

 

[Chris1964]

But it looks quite likely now that NSMB will go past Poké Pearl/Diamond and become the best selling DS game ever in Japan.

27/12/09 [NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl (Pokemon Co.) - 1.586.360 / 5.751.997 / 27,58%
14/02/10 [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 865.024 / 5.734.600 / 15,08%

Last update for Diamond / Pearl was from 2009 top 100 but even if we assume it sold another 10-15k since then it's a matter of weeks. NSMB DS actually went up this week.

 

[duckroll]

I just noticed End of Eternity has passed 200k on Famitsu (PS3 - 166k, 360 - 37k).

 

[schuelma]

Yes, the famitsu leak lives on another week.

An don't worry about Reginleiv guys- it will more than recoup its costs when it comes out in the U.S!

 

[Chakan]

I'm surprised on how many prince of tennis titles exist. The anime is not that good.

 

[king zell]

Resident Evil 5: Lost in Nightmares hits Japan

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/?p=8250

Heavy Rain

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/?p=8248

this week releases

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/?p=8246

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

An don't worry about Reginleiv guys- it will more than recoup its costs when it comes out in the U.S!

lolz

... =(

 

[dolemite]

Slim 250 giger is out this week, isn't it?

 

[Agnates]

Well, since it's more relevant to this week's thread rather than last week's thread, I'll repeat what I said here. Reginleiv's manpower (size of core dev team) and general production values (voice acting, size of cast, amount of content) is comparable to a main Nippon Ichi game (Disgaea, Phantom Kingdom, Soul Cradle, etc). There are about 20+ core development team members, and including outsourced content developers, artists, musicians and so on the overall team is a little over 50 people.

The difference is that Nippon Ichi's games sell about 100k on average each (main team games, not the other shit that bomb all the time), and they take about a year to develop. Reginleiv is not going to sell anything close to that, and it took Sandlot 3 years to develop. Adding to the development costs is the setup and upkeep of the servers for the free online play.

Now, I'm not saying that Reginleiv probably needs to sell 300k to be profitable. That's nonsense. If it can sell 50k, it's probably close to breaking even since Japanese games from small studios cost really little to make. But I'm simply illustrating a point that this is by no means something which Nintendo should be proud of or that can be considered successful for the publisher in any logical view.

Why compare it against Nippon's games and not Sandlot's own past games which used the same manpower yet were released at half price or less as budget titles? Also, isn't Sandlot already "even" with the game if Nintendo funded its development? It's Nintendo that should care about how it sells to break even, Sandlot's already got their money, and can maybe hope for a bonus if it does better. And hey, at worst they'll not work with Sandlot again, but it's not like they'll be in a bad position from it.

Edit: also, is that % the shipment % sold? That seems good also.

Edit: I looked at the December 2006 Media Create threads and I can't find Earth Defense Force 2017 charted at all. Unless it had a different name in Japan. Did it chart?

 

[schuelma]

king zell- thanks so much for doing that every week. Much appreciated.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

4. [NDS] Prince of Tennis - 45,400 (83%)
11. [PS3] Sacred 2 - 18,900 (84%)
11. [360] Sacred 2 - 13,100 (92%)

Pretty good. Honestly surprised a fairly low-profile wRPG picked up by Spike managed to do >30k with stock coming short.

6. [NDS] Quiz Magic Academy DS - 40,200 (52%)
10. [NDS] Dragon Ball: Origins 2 - 19,400 (28%)

Pretty bad, specially DBO2. The latest PS3/360 fighter didn't do well either, low times for this franchise.
DB:O1 did 88k first week (185k total)
DB Kai did 101k first week (184k total)
Quiz Magic Academy 1 did 104k first week (176k total)

humongous release list

Quite a few interesting games and the thread is pretty silent, we should do some predictions (AKA tell me which games we should we include). Also, should we go by MC (top10 insufficient most likely), Famitsu not-really-stable leak or Dengeki top20?

 

[schuelma]

Also, is that % the shipment % sold? That seems good also.

I'm gonna pistol whip the next poster who uses this argument :lol

 

[king zell]

Slim 250 giger is out this week, isn't it?

yes, also the Torne bundle

 

[ULTROS!]

Guess Star Ocean 4 International will surely reach 100k+.

Go SO4I <3

 

[cvxfreak]

I didn't see any 250GB PS3s selling, in case anyone was wondering.

But then again, I was in there right when the stores opened for Biohazard 5 Alternative Edition and nothing more. I'm sure PS3 sales will increase, even if only modestly.

Are there any major releases next week? I won't be in Tokyo to check them out.

 

[Dascu]

Yes, the famitsu leak lives on another week.

An don't worry about Reginleiv guys- it will more than recoup its costs when it comes out in the U.S!

Not funny dude.

 

[schuelma]

Not funny dude.

What's so funny about Nintendo holding media summits in 3 territories just to announce the next evergreen blockbuster, WII FIGHT: REGINLEIV.

 

[Dascu]

What's so funny about Nintendo holding media summits in 3 territories just to announce the next evergreen blockbuster, WII FIGHT: REGINLEIV.

Only two territories.

Europe and Australia are both in Other.

 

[Agnates]

I'm gonna pistol whip the next poster who uses this argument :lol

Why? If they send out a small shipment then they know the game won't sell much from before the fact. So, they either knew it would lose money, yet did it anyway (yay for us) or they can cover its cost with very few sales. And that wasn't my only argument.

 

[schuelma]

Why? If they send out a small shipment then they know the game won't sell much from before the fact. So, they either knew it would lose money, yet did it anyway (yay for us) or they can cover its cost with very few sales. And that wasn't my only argument.

That's not how it works though. You can have one set of expectations close to the release date when it becomes apparent that retailers etc, aren't excited about a title, and you also have your initial expectations when you greenlight the game, which I imagine were higher. Don't get me wrong- I'm not being as hard on Reginleiv as others are, but the argument that selling out most of a relatively small shipment means the game is doing fine doesn't usually hold up.

 

[Agnates]

I didn't imply the game's a runaway success, I just don't think it seems to perform any worse than the previous EDF games, despite being full price this time, and that Sandlot likely gained a lot from the collaboration with Nintendo (which, at worst, won't happen again) even if the game doesn't sell much in the end. What other publisher would pay Sandlot of all companies for 3 whole years making this likely the biggest game they have ever done? Unless they weren't funded, in which case, oh shit.

 

[Dascu]

So, what's the next Wii BOMBA on the horizon? Xenoblade? I hope not, or else Duckroll would become a bitter old hermit.

 

[duckroll]

Why compare it against Nippon's games and not Sandlot's own past games which used the same manpower yet were released at half price or less as budget titles?

Because Reginleiv's production values are on par with Nippon Ichi's games and not Sandlot's own past games? The core production team for the games are the same, yes, and are the same 20 or so people, but Reginleiv also has a sizable staff of contract talent for the movies, the motion capture for the cutscenes, and a large voice cast of many well known talents. The credits of Reginleiv are easily double that of any previous Sandlot game and includes many elements which is comparable to Nippon Ichi's efforts.

 

[schuelma]

So, what's the next Wii BOMBA on the horizon? Xenoblade? I hope not, or else Duckroll would become a bitter old hermit.

Unless I'm missing something, there aren't even any Wii games PERIOD on the horizon (outside of inconsequential stuff and budget releases). Xenoblade is the only relatively high profile game with even a chance of coming out in the next few months.

Seriously- look at the release list. As of now Nintendo has nothing lined up for April/Golden Week. Nothing. This is why I'm shocked there doesn't appear to be a Japan media briefing next week- Japan is the territory that needs it the most.

 

[Stumpokapow]

yeah people need to understand the bomba pipeline, so here's a walkthrough with reference to a hypothetical project that bombs at every stage imaginable:

1. Bomb versus Greenlight Expectations -- a publisher does a P&L very early in a project. Maybe by the end of the project it's obvious that the ecosystem has changed or retailers aren't biting or whatever. Maybe the game is a giant pile of shit. That happens too. The same project that they expected to sell 500k at the beginning of, now they only expect 150k out of. The game could have a huge shipment and sell through it all, but it could still fail to recover negative costs on the basis that they thought it'd be bigger.

2. Bomb versus Publisher Expectations -- a publisher sees themselves as shipping 150k to retailers, confidently. Retailers don't agree. The back and forth negotiations on inventory management eventually lead to the game shipping fewer copies than the publisher wanted. They ship 75k. Maybe it'll sell through the first shipment and get a second and have a chance of reversing a bomba at this stage. Then again...

3. Bomb versus Retail Expectations -- retailers happily buy the 75k copies. Ruh roh, first week sales are in and it's a dismal 18k. Over the next 6 weeks, sales climb to 40k on the back of major price slashing. 35k copies sit in the channel slow burning over the next year. The project never gets a second shipment and retailers lose mad cheddar on the first shipment.

It's rare we get enough info to find out about bombs at the first and second stages or distinguish between the two. In one recent example, Nippon Ichi sent out a retailer promotion flyer claiming they were going to ship 30k of The Last Rebellion. They only shipped 15k, so I'd say that's a good candidate for a stage 2 bomba right there. Crystal Bearers was clearly a stage 1 and stage 2 bomba; the project went on way too long, cost way too much money, rapidly dropped in stature and scope, undershipped big time.

Reginleiv obviously isn't bombing at retail (stage 3 above). It got a small-medium first shipment and sellthrough is brisk if not explosive. I would argue that there's no way even Sandlot would have done a pitch such that the P&L looked good at 30k copies, especially after the length of development, so it may be underwhelming in one of the first two stages. *shrugs*

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Big was definitely the wrong word. Perhaps I should have said significant. I reckon it'll need to sell 100k to break even, minimum.

Is there something i'm missing here? Reginleiv sold 78% of its initial shipment. Would they not have factored in their shipment allocations when worrying about break even?

 

[duckroll]

Don't worry guys, Xenoblade doesn't have to do very well for us to consider it a non-failure at all. Xenosaga Ep III only sold 180k, and Soma Bringer just barely broke 100k. Since Xenoblade will almost certainly sell over 100k, lowered expectations will save us all! :lol

 

[gerg]

Seriously- look at the release list. As of now Nintendo has nothing lined up for April/Golden Week. Nothing. This is why I'm shocked there doesn't appear to be a Japan media briefing next week- Japan is the territory that needs it the most.

Do we not think that SMG 2 will come out around Golden Week?

Not that the title should do anything hardware-wise, but it should do well as a piece of software.

Is there something i'm missing here? Reginleiv sold 78% of its initial shipment. Would they not have factored in their shipment allocations when worrying about break even?

As stump has highlighted, its possible that it bombed from either Nintendo's or Sandlot's internal expectations. I imagine that when Sandlot started the project they had no idea it would take three years to develop. (Iwata himself had to personally ask for M+ integration, for example.)

Nintendo may localise the title to try and recoup some costs (although this is far from certain) - how well have Sandlot's games done in America in the past?

 

[Aaron Strife]

As of now Nintendo has nothing lined up for April/Golden Week. Nothing.

SMG2 surprise!

 

[Dascu]

Maybe surprise release of Span Smasher.

 

[schuelma]

Do we not think that SMG 2 will come out around Golden Week?

Not that the title should do anything hardware-wise, but it should do well as a piece of software.

Why would we think that? It was listed as 2010 in Nintendo's latest IR report. Metroid got a Summer 2010 designation and Xenoblade got Spring. It's approximately 2 months until Golden Week and we don't even have a website teaser. I'd put the odds of Nintendo unveiling and releasing Galaxy 2 in 2 months at like 5%.

I dare you to defend Nintendo's lineup now gerg...I think the Dreamcast has more games announced at this point.

 

[duckroll]

Do we not think that SMG 2 will come out around Golden Week?

Not that the title should do anything hardware-wise, but it should do well as a piece of software.

SMG2 has no date, marketing for the game has not started, it is not going to come out in 2 months. If there is no announcement by the end of next week, it will simply be impossible for it to come out in April at all. Retail orders are solicited months in advance. You cannot just announce a date and release it the next month immediately without anyone knowing.

 

[schuelma]

SMG2 has no date, marketing for the game has not started, it is not going to come out in 2 months. If there is no announcement by the end of next week, it will simply be impossible for it to come out in April at all. Retail orders are solicited months in advance. You cannot just announce a date and release it the next month immediately without anyone knowing.

I think Nintendo announced and released Wario Land Shake in like 6 weeks or something..of course that was just Wario Land and not Galaxy 2, so yeah it ain't happening.

 

[duckroll]

how well have Sandlot's games done in America in the past?

Only two of them have been released in the US to my knowledge - R.A.D. on PS2 and EDF 2017 on Xbox360. Not much to really go on.

 

[duckroll]

I think Nintendo announced and released Wario Land Shake in like 6 weeks or something..of course that was just Wario Land and not Galaxy 2, so yeah it ain't happening.

I googled it, and: http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/newsArt.cfm?artid=16060

It was announced at the end of May, and released at the end of July. About 2 months, which is the general cut off.

 

[gerg]

SMG2 has no date, marketing for the game has not started, it is not going to come out in 2 months. If there is no announcement by the end of next week, it will simply be impossible for it to come out in April at all. Retail orders are solicited months in advance. You cannot just announce a date and release it the next month immediately without anyone knowing.

Fair enough.

I wasn't sure about the timing of these things.

I dare you to defend Nintendo's lineup now gerg...I think the Dreamcast has more games announced at this point.

Why be so antagonistic?

I defended Nintendo's position a couple of weeks back, although this culminated in me actively accepting that I was wrong. The one caveat was that I think it slightly more understandable for Nintendo to have a rubbish lineup, in that there may be some factors out of their control (internal game delays, and so on) that have shifted their timing. I don't think that that's an unreasonable position to hold, especially because I'm not denying that Nintendo's line-up is shit, and it's also something that, iirc, duckroll has suggested in the past.

The only difference is that whereas you seem to be confused over the lack of the new Metroid (or Galaxy) to keep things alive, I think that those are the wrong types of games to be used to sustain the Wii anyway.

 

[duckroll]

Why be so antagonistic?

This is sales-age, come on, every week we're like 300... except with more numbers. :lol

 

[schuelma]

Why be so antagonistic?

I defended Nintendo's position a couple of weeks back, although this culminated in me actively accepting that I was wrong. The one caveat was that I think it slightly more understandable for Nintendo to have a rubbish lineup, in that there may be some factors out of their control (game delays, and so on) that have shifted their timing. I don't think that that's an unreasonable position to hold, especially because I'm not denying that Nintendo's line-up is shit, and it's also something that, iirc, duckroll has suggested in the past.

The only difference is that whereas you seem to be confused over the lack of the new Metroid (or Galaxy) to keep things alive, I think that those are the wrong types of games to be used to sustain the Wii anyway.

I don't mean to be antagonistic, its just that in our discussions since the beginning of the year you seemed to be the one defending Nintendo's lineup the most and insisting that there was still time for significant releases to come out in Q1.

I agree with you that Galaxy isn't going to do that much to sustain sales..but certainly its better than literally having zero games coming out. That goes back to your point about factors outside Nintendo's control- I can buy that in terms of maybe Galaxy 2 had a delay or a big 3rd party game got delayed..but right now you are looking at a virtually non-existent lineup- a lineup that is by far the worst in the Wii's history. That goes beyond Nintendo suffering unforseen delays IMO.

 

[BishopLamont]

I don't mean to be antagonistic, its just that in our discussions since the beginning of the year you seemed to be the one defending Nintendo's lineup the most and insisting that there was still time for significant releases to come out in Q1.

I agree with you that Galaxy isn't going to do that much to sustain sales..but certainly its better than literally having zero games coming out. That goes back to your point about factors outside Nintendo's control- I can buy that in terms of maybe Galaxy 2 had a delay or a big 3rd party game got delayed..but right now you are looking at a virtually non-existent lineup- a lineup that is by far the worst in the Wii's history. That goes beyond Nintendo suffering unforseen delays IMO.

The Wii's strength lies in the huge hits though, not the overall lineup of subpar C budget titles. Having NSMBW this year beats out what was available in Q1 2009. Saying its Wii's worse lineup is pretty meaningless, when older hits like Wii Sports/Fit are the ones pushing the console.

 

[gerg]

I don't mean to be antagonistic, its just that in our discussions since the beginning of the year you seemed to be the one defending Nintendo's lineup the most and insisting that there was still time for significant releases to come out in Q1.

And?

I'm willing to concede that the comments I made X weeks ago were wrong. Time has proven as much. I can't remember how recent those comments were, so they may simply have been wrong out of principle, in that it would be (as duckroll has suggested now) impossible for Nintendo to have announced a game and have it shipped in the timeframe you are suggesting, although I would think that were that to have been the case duckroll would have picked me up on it then.

I agree with you that Galaxy isn't going to do that much to sustain sales..but certainly its better than literally having zero games coming out. That goes back to your point about factors outside Nintendo's control- I can buy that in terms of maybe Galaxy 2 had a delay or a big 3rd party game got delayed..but right now you are looking at a virtually non-existent lineup- a lineup that is by far the worst in the Wii's history. That goes beyond Nintendo suffering unforseen delays IMO.

Evidently there might be some other factors before.

Maybe Nintendo would prefer to have a relatively active period in which it can launch several major titles to buoy the Wii's software sales for a consistent and extended period of time, rather than release one of those games earlier, only to cause the Wii's software sales to spike and then drop down again. Would that be a stupid decision? (I am asking this in earnest.)

 

[spwolf]

I didn't see any 250GB PS3s selling, in case anyone was wondering.

But then again, I was in there right when the stores opened for Biohazard 5 Alternative Edition and nothing more. I'm sure PS3 sales will increase, even if only modestly.

Are there any major releases next week? I won't be in Tokyo to check them out.

nobody cared for 250gb version in the west, i doubt they will in the east.

I thought Torne is out March 18th?

 

[schuelma]

Evidently there might be some other factors before.

Maybe Nintendo would prefer to have a relatively active period in which it can launch several major titles to buoy the Wii's software sales rather than release one of those games earlier, only to cause the Wii's software sales to spike and then drop down again. Would that be a stupid decision? (I am asking this in earnest.)

Just to clarify, I'm not even primarily talking about big releases like Galaxy 2 anymore- I am talking about actual (not re-releases) releases that have the potential to sell more than 25K LTD. There is literally NOTHING ANNOUNCED that meets that criteria right now. Nothing. Look at the lineup. The only game announced that might come out in the next 2-3 months is Xenoblade. We are talking about Reginleiv not doing that well....as it stands its going to be the biggest release on the platform for the next 2 months. That's not a strategy to save big guns for busier periods- its either: A- incompetence, B- Nintendo is preparing a revision and holding off on software (NOT Wii HD- a DSi type revision), or C- Nintendo and 3rd parties have dropped the platform.