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Media Create Sales Numbers: 1/10-1/16: PSP > DS
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
soundwave05
Member
Broshnat said:Not a lot else to be said...
So how's that foot in your mouth tasting?
ThongyDonk
Banned
S-Enix are giving the DS 7 or 8 titles we know of, plus they are bringing Play-Onlone to the DS (If rumours are believed)
The DS is in short supply.
The PSP has 200,000 units sitting around. (regardless of what the fan-boys say)
The DS has had no new releases (of any decent type) since launch
With Yoshi, animal Crossing, harvest Moon and many other coming in the next few months. FFCC and Golden eye being shown at the Euro conference on the 27th Jan plus many other factor sales will pick up.
There should be no arguing on who's going to win, the DS aint gonna loose as Nintendo only expected to sell to 10% of their fan base with it!
The DS is in short supply.
The PSP has 200,000 units sitting around. (regardless of what the fan-boys say)
The DS has had no new releases (of any decent type) since launch
With Yoshi, animal Crossing, harvest Moon and many other coming in the next few months. FFCC and Golden eye being shown at the Euro conference on the 27th Jan plus many other factor sales will pick up.
There should be no arguing on who's going to win, the DS aint gonna loose as Nintendo only expected to sell to 10% of their fan base with it!
soundwave05
Member
I see the PSP getting a lot more third party support.
I think some third parties (like Square-Enix) have been cautious in announcing too many PSP projects just because Sony has no track record in the portable market.
The better the PSP performs, the more those fears will be alleviated. I think also most third parties like most industry analysists expected the PSP to be more like $250-$300, not $200.
I think some third parties (like Square-Enix) have been cautious in announcing too many PSP projects just because Sony has no track record in the portable market.
The better the PSP performs, the more those fears will be alleviated. I think also most third parties like most industry analysists expected the PSP to be more like $250-$300, not $200.
ThongyDonk said:
If the PSP has 200,000 units sitting around then the DS has 500,000 units sitting around since of course were just going by the objective shipped numbers (1 million vs. 2 million) right?
...errr and the PSP has had what? Puzzle Bobble? Puyo Puyo Fever (oh wait that came out on DS also!). I think this point applies to both systems.
ThongyDonk said:
Do you people really believe this? Delusional...
Nintendo has put millions of dollars behind DS and are foregoing GBA development in favor of
it. Regardless of what pre-emptive damage control they spoke, they expect it to sell to a hell of a lot more then 10%.
I am worried about the long term prospects of NDS. Nintendo has underestimated SONY's PSP. Nintendo always starts well when a new console is launched but sales tend to fade fast. Ninty concentrates on Holiday season sales but Sony is an all year round workhorse. There can be no excuses for PSP kicking NDS's ass at this stage of the handheld race but I fear the big N is repeating the same mistakes it made with other consoles.
Even though Sony released the PSP 10 days later than NDS there were more games available for it by the year's end than NDS. My advice to Nintendo is:-
1. Reduce the NDS price. At 15000yen v 20000yen for the much more technologically advanced PSP it's relatively expensive.
2. Avoid games droughts by managing regular games releases possibly with better 3rd party relations.
3 Get the NDS online without delay.
4. Stop underestimating the competition (Sony etc.)
:lol
Even though Sony released the PSP 10 days later than NDS there were more games available for it by the year's end than NDS. My advice to Nintendo is:-
1. Reduce the NDS price. At 15000yen v 20000yen for the much more technologically advanced PSP it's relatively expensive.
2. Avoid games droughts by managing regular games releases possibly with better 3rd party relations.
3 Get the NDS online without delay.
4. Stop underestimating the competition (Sony etc.)
:lol
Bebpo said:
Sony always manages a regular release of games which tends to get it's consoles noticed. It doesn't matter that many of these games are mediocre. Gamers hunger for a regular flow of games is satisfied by SONY but not Nintendo. It's worked in the Past & it may work for SONY's PSP again because Nintendo don't seem to learn from their past mistakes & always underestimate their competition.
monkeymagic
Banned
DSXBoy said:Sony always manages a regular release of games which tends to get it's consoles noticed. It doesn't matter that many of these games are mediocre. Gamers hunger for a regular flow of games is satisfied by SONY but not Nintendo. It's worked in the Past & it may work for SONY's PSP again because Nintendo don't seem to learn from their past mistakes & always underestimate their competition.
Excellent point and you may be one of the few Nintendo supporters who have a clear view of what is going on here.
If you look at sales charts you can see the even average/mediocre titles sell and I myself have been guilty of buying some of these average games just to play something new.
Today's gamers want a fix as soon as they are bored with their current titles (or even before) and they are not prepared to wait around for the next stellar Zelda, Mario etc title. If there are no regular game releases then the hardware is forgotten or even worse a new system WITH regular releases is purchased.
Choice is where Sony have been strong the last 2 generations and I see them doing the same with PSP. Given its extra media capabilities if there were a drought (unlikely) the hardware is less likely to be abandoned too.
solarplexus
Member
CVXFREAK said:
The total number is wrong.
65,837 + 124,401 = 190,238
CUBE IGN MAIL http://cube.ign.com/mail
What's interesting is that work on Game Boy Evolution is allegedly further along than most of us would probably guess. And more intriguing still, sources claim that Nintendo is once again trying to make the machine a portable GameCube.
If that comes to fruition, I will likely be singing the praises of Game Boy Evolution from the very start. It would be an amazing accomplishment. The machine would have a potential library of 500 games from launch. Imagine being able to play Wind Waker, Metroid Prime, Resident Evil 4, Wave Race, and Pikmin on the go. It's a Nintendo fan's dream come true.
Guns N' Poops
Banned
bigNman said:
But where is teh innovation, where is teh Nintendo's fans beloved innovation?
I'd say WonderSwan was a pretty serious contender in Japan, with full SCEI and Square backing. In fact it it even used the same general distributor as PlayStation (Happinet). The problem there was Nintendo stalling things with GBC, then destroying the competition with a new Game Boy (GBA) a year or two later.... sound familiar?SolidSnakex said:
Though, I'd also say PSP's a different beast all together and easily the worthiest competition that Nintendo's ever faced in handhelds. In the scheme of things, GG and WS never really stood a chance, while PSP actually has a pretty good shot at becoming number one.
Pokemon
Jump SuperStars
Final Fantasy III
The DS will do fine.
GTA
Devil May Cry
GT4
The PSP will do fine.
Both systems will do fine. So, the PSP outsold the DS this week. Who cares? So the DS outsold the PSP last week? Who cares? The systems just launched, of course they're going to be flipflopping in sales as the early adopters rush out to get their shiny new toys. It's going to take at least a year, and a sizeable library of titles before anyone can start claiming a victor in this "war".
The PSP fans would have you believe that once the PSP launched, the DS sales would dry up as nobody wants Nintendo's kiddy systems. That didn't happen. People are still buying the DS in droves. That's why both systems can survive. They are both different enough and offer different styles that will allow them to coexist.
One other thing, Sony isn't the hardware leader. When the PSP manages to sell as much as the original Gameboy did, only then can they claim the title. Maybe in a few years, but not today.
Jump SuperStars
Final Fantasy III
The DS will do fine.
GTA
Devil May Cry
GT4
The PSP will do fine.
Both systems will do fine. So, the PSP outsold the DS this week. Who cares? So the DS outsold the PSP last week? Who cares? The systems just launched, of course they're going to be flipflopping in sales as the early adopters rush out to get their shiny new toys. It's going to take at least a year, and a sizeable library of titles before anyone can start claiming a victor in this "war".
The PSP fans would have you believe that once the PSP launched, the DS sales would dry up as nobody wants Nintendo's kiddy systems. That didn't happen. People are still buying the DS in droves. That's why both systems can survive. They are both different enough and offer different styles that will allow them to coexist.
One other thing, Sony isn't the hardware leader. When the PSP manages to sell as much as the original Gameboy did, only then can they claim the title. Maybe in a few years, but not today.
People underestimate how badly Sony wants this, and how much they'll end up getting it in the end. More random math for shipments:
3M units for this fiscal year
+ 6M if they make 1M/month for 6 months (September 05)
+ 8M if they make 2M/month for 4 months (January 06)
+ 6M if they make 3M/month until the end of the fiscal year
------
23M units shipped globally
This is using conservative estimates of the shipment goals mentioned yesterday. They mentioned increasing to 2M units/month in early-Summer, I'm guessing early-Fall. They said 3M units at year's end, I'm saying the end of January 06. That's 20 million PSPs projected. Even if my estimates aren't conservative, they're still gonna make over 15M of these suckers this year, and they aim to move them. Pokemon this Summer? Xbox2 this Winter? PSTwo and Xbox @ $99? GBA and DS at $50 and $99 respectively? Why do you think I keep talking about that $150 price? It counters any move Nintendo can make. $150 is the mass-market price, not $180, not $200. Who cares what Sony fans think about the coolness of this machine, it needs to sell to EVERYONE, and fast. If Sony's gonna move the same number of units as a GBA or PS2 in its prime, then they need to sell this product at a primetime price. $180 is a new price for this last gen, and it didn't have that great of an impact on sales IIRC. $150, and the PSP will sell every unit they make from here until 2006. It'll also convert lots more potential DS owners than that $180 pricetag, especially once the inevitable DS price cuts come into effect. But what do I know? Apparently, I'm just a cheapskate. :lol But IMO, the dynamics of the market, and the price changes that will be occuring shortly after US launch demand a price that's long-term. DS still has a desperate option of Pokemon packed-in for $99-130. That'll sell like gangbusters. Sony's not in the driver's seat, they can't dictate the market IMO. They have to force Nintendo to react, not the other way around. I still think a lot of you guys are thinking way too short-term.
I called Sony making tons of units a number of times already and mentioned why. You need that install base buying lots of games to prep the PS3 launch. They need to grow the US base quickest of all. We should get like 40-50% of all units shipped. It's Nintendo's last stronghold. I don't know how else you move 15+M units in a year without getting really aggressive. Oh...and the PSP will outsell the DS by year's end. If you don't see the writing on the wall, you're in loser denial. DC and N64 fans feel your pain. I don't think there's any "true test" to wait for anymore. The PSP's gonna bitchslap the DS, so long as Sony's not dumb about the pricing. Everything else is in place but the price. PEACE.
3M units for this fiscal year
+ 6M if they make 1M/month for 6 months (September 05)
+ 8M if they make 2M/month for 4 months (January 06)
+ 6M if they make 3M/month until the end of the fiscal year
------
23M units shipped globally
This is using conservative estimates of the shipment goals mentioned yesterday. They mentioned increasing to 2M units/month in early-Summer, I'm guessing early-Fall. They said 3M units at year's end, I'm saying the end of January 06. That's 20 million PSPs projected. Even if my estimates aren't conservative, they're still gonna make over 15M of these suckers this year, and they aim to move them. Pokemon this Summer? Xbox2 this Winter? PSTwo and Xbox @ $99? GBA and DS at $50 and $99 respectively? Why do you think I keep talking about that $150 price? It counters any move Nintendo can make. $150 is the mass-market price, not $180, not $200. Who cares what Sony fans think about the coolness of this machine, it needs to sell to EVERYONE, and fast. If Sony's gonna move the same number of units as a GBA or PS2 in its prime, then they need to sell this product at a primetime price. $180 is a new price for this last gen, and it didn't have that great of an impact on sales IIRC. $150, and the PSP will sell every unit they make from here until 2006. It'll also convert lots more potential DS owners than that $180 pricetag, especially once the inevitable DS price cuts come into effect. But what do I know? Apparently, I'm just a cheapskate. :lol But IMO, the dynamics of the market, and the price changes that will be occuring shortly after US launch demand a price that's long-term. DS still has a desperate option of Pokemon packed-in for $99-130. That'll sell like gangbusters. Sony's not in the driver's seat, they can't dictate the market IMO. They have to force Nintendo to react, not the other way around. I still think a lot of you guys are thinking way too short-term.
I called Sony making tons of units a number of times already and mentioned why. You need that install base buying lots of games to prep the PS3 launch. They need to grow the US base quickest of all. We should get like 40-50% of all units shipped. It's Nintendo's last stronghold. I don't know how else you move 15+M units in a year without getting really aggressive. Oh...and the PSP will outsell the DS by year's end. If you don't see the writing on the wall, you're in loser denial. DC and N64 fans feel your pain. I don't think there's any "true test" to wait for anymore. The PSP's gonna bitchslap the DS, so long as Sony's not dumb about the pricing. Everything else is in place but the price. PEACE.
Kung Fu Jedi
Member
Not that there is anything left to be said on this topic, but isn't it far too early to declare a winner in the handheld war this generation? DS got off to a great start, sold a much of systems before the PSP launch, and had a good holiday in Japan and the US. The PSP launched in Japan, sold out for all intents an purposes, before Christmas and has continued strong demand as more product has made it's way to stores. PSP outsells DS for a week and everyone starts declaring a winner.
Both systems have a solid future, I think we can all agree on that, but this war is far from over. Once both systems have a solid library of games, and by solid I mean a number of good titles rather then a two or three good titles and a bunch of average or worse games, then the real battle will begin. Hardcore gamers like us will buy one or the other, or both, for the games we want to play, but to become a success in todays market, the systems need to compete for the average gamer. You know, the guy who buys Madden every year and that's about it. Nintendo has their diehard fans, excellent first party properties, and their ace in the hole with the youngsters, Pokemon. Sony has the "cool" factor with older gamers, a decided advantage in hardware, and plenty of big titles of their own, such as GTA.
If you believe recent reports, a number of third party developers have jumped on the PSP bandwagon. More so then DS. It will be these developers that will probably make or break the systems. Regardless, its far to early to call a winner. I have said it before, and I'll say it again, I believe the market has grown significantly enough that two good handhelds can co-exist. We should choose the system that has the games that we want to play and go with that system. For me, that's the PSP, but I can completely understand why someone would want the DS, it's just not my cup of tea.
Both systems have a solid future, I think we can all agree on that, but this war is far from over. Once both systems have a solid library of games, and by solid I mean a number of good titles rather then a two or three good titles and a bunch of average or worse games, then the real battle will begin. Hardcore gamers like us will buy one or the other, or both, for the games we want to play, but to become a success in todays market, the systems need to compete for the average gamer. You know, the guy who buys Madden every year and that's about it. Nintendo has their diehard fans, excellent first party properties, and their ace in the hole with the youngsters, Pokemon. Sony has the "cool" factor with older gamers, a decided advantage in hardware, and plenty of big titles of their own, such as GTA.
If you believe recent reports, a number of third party developers have jumped on the PSP bandwagon. More so then DS. It will be these developers that will probably make or break the systems. Regardless, its far to early to call a winner. I have said it before, and I'll say it again, I believe the market has grown significantly enough that two good handhelds can co-exist. We should choose the system that has the games that we want to play and go with that system. For me, that's the PSP, but I can completely understand why someone would want the DS, it's just not my cup of tea.
Kung Fu Jedi said:
It's nice to be pragmatic and all, but how tough is the gaming industry to predict...seriously. Who didn't see the PS2 steamroller coming from early 1999? DC fans? GC fans? Xbox fans? It was pretty obvious just the way the hype was building that it was gonna be big and it was gonna be hard to stop. The PS1 was clearlyon the up and up from shortly after its Japan launch. The fact that the newcomer was competitive out of the gates made it clear that the Saturn was in dire straights. It may have held up for a while, but the PS1 had a noticeable graphics advantage, and the competitive pricing/marketing made it a no-brainer after its first year. I should know, I was gonna get an N64. But months before the N64 hit, it was clear which system was gonna emerge on top. I see no indication that the DS is gonna have a chance long-term at all. Look at the talk about the GBA2 already. Nintendo fans have already conceded defeat with the DS. If there was really belief in the system toughing it out, I don't think there'd be any concern about the future of Nintendo handhelds. I mean, this whole third pillar talk is an attempt to pre-empt the inevitable disappointment with sales. Trying to convince faithfuls and shareholders that there's a REAL challenger still waiting somewhere in the wings, and the DS is just an "alternative" at the moment. Bullshit. The DS has killed the GBA sales in Japan. It'll probably do the same here too once we start getting NPD numbers again. And since it was believed before that the GBA would be a great revenue stream to keep Nintendo up, where does that leave them? The writing's on the wall. You don't have to guess, you can feel where the market's going again. There are no secrets to the gaming industry, just lots of denial. It will be pretty conclusive by the end of this year. Around Summer time, the PSP should start putting boot to ass in all three territories. IOW, around when the next production bump takes place. Someone can bookmark this if they want, it's only gonna read like common sense later on this year. PEACE.
GDJustin said:
Technically, you're right. No one has knocked Nintendo off their handheld perch. For now. But at the same time Nintendo hasn't faced a competitor this tough in the portable arena before. You are severely shortchanging the PSP when you compare the original Game Boy to the Game Gear. It just isn't about increased power. It also does come down to extras and marketing. The PSP can play MP3s and playback movies. At the same time, Sony is leveraging the 200 million selling (combining PSone and PS2 shipments) Playstation name to a portable system. Last time I checked, Sega didn't have the exact same mindshare when entering the portable market. And the Game Gear wasn't competing against a third pillar either!
I disagree about Nintendo's assessment of DS being a third pillar (Built in GBA support for one!) but I digress for now.Pimpwerx said:
Very tough, actually. The PS1 would have been nothing if Square and Enix didn't release FF and DQ for it. If they remained with Nintendo, then Nintendo would still be the leader in this industry.
So far, Square-Enix seems to be supporting the DS more. If a true portable DQ/FF goes onto the DS, that could give it the leg up. Same goes for the PSP. It could go either way, really.
SolidSnakex
Member
Spike said:
If by true, you mean a real one like FFXIII, then neither are getting that. Square puts those titles on consoles and always have, same for Enix and their DQ's. Square has never really dictated handhelds because their games aren't nearly as dominant in that market as they are in the console market.
It's true... I think Square Enix's DS/PSP support will be summed up by this...SolidSnakex said:
DS: tons of low budget remakes and spinoffs, maybe some mobile ports
PSP: less frequent high budget spin offs, maybe some console ports/remakes
...I don't see them being a "deciding factor" for either handheld really.
SolidSnakex said:
But, we've never had a portable like the PSP before, have we?
I think that we might actually see a true, maybe not numbered, FF or DQ RPG on these handhelds. Possibly not the DS due again to the media used, but GB Evolution will be more likely.Actually, I was just trying to show that there really are no guarantees when it comes to the industry. For all we know, the Xenon could be the market leader next gen if the PS2-only owners really want to jump ship for Halo or something. Or Nintendo could offer something truly revolutionary that has the developers focusing on it. Nothing is guaranteed.
SolidSnakex
Member
A real FF and DQ is too much of a risk for them, especially FF's which cost alot of money and they need to make it back. Handhelds are a very unpredictable market, so its best for them to keep it where they know they'll make their money back.
I think we'll continue seeing ports, remakes, and side stories from them. No actual sequels to either of the main series. The DS will continue getting the SNES remakes/ports of the series while the PSP will possibly recieve PSone era upgrades. A FF7 remake or port seems probable since Square-Enix's reasoning behind not doing it on the PS2 was because you could still play FF7 on that system. A FF7 remake or port to go along with FF7 Crisis Core (a game that takes place right before the events in FF7) makes sense.
I think we'll continue seeing ports, remakes, and side stories from them. No actual sequels to either of the main series. The DS will continue getting the SNES remakes/ports of the series while the PSP will possibly recieve PSone era upgrades. A FF7 remake or port seems probable since Square-Enix's reasoning behind not doing it on the PS2 was because you could still play FF7 on that system. A FF7 remake or port to go along with FF7 Crisis Core (a game that takes place right before the events in FF7) makes sense.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I'm excited by these numbers not becuase I care if Sony dominates handhelds, but becuase it seems more and more clear that the PSP is going to be around for a while. 3 months ago, I wasn't as sure. And the PSP titles interest me more than any other handheld offering in a long time.
Games I want + not an orphaned system = good.
Games I want + not an orphaned system = good.
ThirdEye said:
The bottom line of Nintendo will be fine. It is interesting software sales are mentioned because two 3rd party PSP games are already cracking 200K+ sold on a paltry userbase while the DS still doesn't have a 3rd party game above 100K. The bottom line of Nintendo will be fine with the DS. But for 3rd parties it could be a different story. Nintendo games always sell great on their own hardware.
Well, that's a bad way of putting things considering the solid performance Square Enix has had on GBA (with a couple million sellers even). Not to mention the best selling RPG in history (Pokemon) being a handheld game. I think it's less a case of "unpredictable handheld markets" and more Square Enix not wanting to go "backwards" so to speak with FF or DQ. Any handheld is actually a step down from current consoles performance wise, and will be even moreso for next generation machines.SolidSnakex said:
Not to nitpick but Square Enix specifically mentioned they're not interested in PS1/PS2 ports for PSP, but rather new content. Also, DS has yet to see a Square Enix SNES port/remake (though I'm guessing we might get Shinyaku Seiken Densetsu 2).SolidSnakex said:
Is it also interesting comparing sales of Shin Sankogu Musou to Zooo on PS2? When it comes to games released on both PSP and DS (only Puyo Puyo Fever so far) the DS version has outsold it 2 to 1.Mrbob said:
Seiken DensetsuSantaCruZer said:
Dragon Quest Monsters
Dragon Quest Slime Morimori
...none of which are canceled I'd wager, given they're all popular GB series. Matsuno's doing a DS game also, but no official word yet.
Spazbiohaz
Member
koam said:
I almost fell out of my chair. Come one tax return
Baron Aloha
A Shining Example
Wow, this happened a lot sooner than I thought it would.
To be honest, I've been thinking the DS was a bad idea ever since it was announced. I like the concept of a touch screen but two screens is a bit much and the specs aren't up to snuff. They should have just stuck with the GBA until a suitable (i.e. more powerful) replacement could have been produced.
What's happening is people aren't buying the GBA because the DS is out and its effectively Nintendo's "new" handheld (thus killing the GBA). But then when they go to buy the DS and compare it with the PSP they look at the PSP's specs and multi-media functions and it becomes a no brainer for many of them.
If Nintendo would have stuck with the GBA they would have been able to compete better because it would be a low cost alternative to the PSP. They can't do that now though because with the DS it has become evident that they are slowly abandoning the GBA hardware so no one wants one anymore.
It's sad really. I'm surprised that none of the people in a position of authority at Nintendo saw this coming. Now they are stuck between a rock and a hardplace and they have no one to blame but themselves. Didn't they learn anything from Sega's 32X fiasco?
To be honest, I've been thinking the DS was a bad idea ever since it was announced. I like the concept of a touch screen but two screens is a bit much and the specs aren't up to snuff. They should have just stuck with the GBA until a suitable (i.e. more powerful) replacement could have been produced.
What's happening is people aren't buying the GBA because the DS is out and its effectively Nintendo's "new" handheld (thus killing the GBA). But then when they go to buy the DS and compare it with the PSP they look at the PSP's specs and multi-media functions and it becomes a no brainer for many of them.
If Nintendo would have stuck with the GBA they would have been able to compete better because it would be a low cost alternative to the PSP. They can't do that now though because with the DS it has become evident that they are slowly abandoning the GBA hardware so no one wants one anymore.
It's sad really. I'm surprised that none of the people in a position of authority at Nintendo saw this coming. Now they are stuck between a rock and a hardplace and they have no one to blame but themselves. Didn't they learn anything from Sega's 32X fiasco?