Media Create Sales: Week 15, 2015 (Apr 06 - Apr 12)

Jan 25, 2014
9,210
0
0
But Bravely Default debuts in 3 days, it's not yet released. I know about YSO's forecasts, usually pretty reliable, but it's not the actual debut. Just to clarify since I've seen people stating BS had a "lower tha expcted" first week despite not being released yet XD
Yeah, I agree with this. Let's at least see how it does and not rely on YSO predictions.

It's a PS4 port of a Vita/PSP monster hunting game's expanded release, that only came out over 6 months after it did on Vita. I mean, these games do better on portables, so I really don't see what they were going for with this release.
The western market. Problem is, it did pretty terribly over here too.

If I'm reading that right, Nepnep has 78pt and XCX has 42pt. Looks like the WiiU base really does not like jrpg's :/
COMG insanely inflated Neptunia game (the Noire title on Vita had a points: sales ratio of like 1: 315 or something).

Xenoblade will have a better FW than Nep.
 
Dec 28, 2005
39,514
0
0
If it it ended up selling less in its LTD in Japan, XCX even flirting with XC's opening would be a success, given the difference in install base.

I'm not really sure if the success or failure in Japan is necessarily indicative towards the game's eventual success or failure, since XC sold more in the West than it did in Japan, and XCX has the distinct advantage of receiving an actual wide release in America versus being a Gamestop exclusive and 5 copies being printed.
 
Jan 25, 2014
9,210
0
0
Btw, it seems FuRyu got something else right on 3DS ;)
124 3DS Cardfight!! Vanguard: Ride to Victory!! 44,092 / 70,029 FuRyu 2013-04-11
167 3DS Cardfight!! Vanguard: Lock On Victory!! 32,816 / 45,211 FuRyu 2014-06-05

Isn't it a new one of these? Judging by how dead the chart was last week and what's above it this week (Dying Light), looks like it's going to be a further drop from the second entry.
 
Jan 25, 2012
22,624
0
0
124 3DS Cardfight!! Vanguard: Ride to Victory!! 44,092 / 70,029 FuRyu 2013-04-11
167 3DS Cardfight!! Vanguard: Lock On Victory!! 32,816 / 45,211 FuRyu 2014-06-05

Isn't it a new one of these? Judging by how dead the chart was last week and what's above it this week (Dying Light), looks like it's going to be a further drop from the second entry.
Its a different card game from the same company. Buddyfight is targeted towards a younger audience.
 
Aug 4, 2005
2,174
0
1,125
The writing was on the wall with Bravely Second. I expect it to have relatively poor legs as well. The opening itself isn't disastrous, but sequels tend to be front loaded.

Following through my last debate on this subject, Pennywise brought up Graces 2 and Disgaea, and I think the numbers comparison there still looks about right:



---



I searched and this is all I came up with:







I'm fairly certain Orgen wasn't serious.
Yep, I wasn't serious but I expected BD2 to reach 300.000 LTD... now it seems impossible but I won't give up yet! :D

I haven't been following the marketing pre-launch for BD2 but it's been at least on par with BD? (I remember being a lot of demos for BD in Japan).
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
124 3DS Cardfight!! Vanguard: Ride to Victory!! 44,092 / 70,029 FuRyu 2013-04-11
167 3DS Cardfight!! Vanguard: Lock On Victory!! 32,816 / 45,211 FuRyu 2014-06-05

Isn't it a new one of these? Judging by how dead the chart was last week and what's above it this week (Dying Light), looks like it's going to be a further drop from the second entry.
It's another IP (the TCG is from the same company, Bushiroad).
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Not really. Seems pretty much about the same to me. Xenoblade also had a lot of online videos showing off stuff leading to the release. It had website updates. It's not very effective marketing for attracting larger interest for a product with limited visibility. The majority of people watching these videos and who know about them in the first place are already interested in the game.

Xenoblade had two huge factors going for it that Xenoblade X doesn't - the Wii was actually a successful platform with a large installed base, and Xenoblade wasn't the only notable JRPG on the platform there was already Tales of Graces out, and there was The Last Story coming out after it. Way more momentum for the genre than the WiiU ever had, that's for sure.
On the other side X looks a high effort sequel to a very well received game.

It's not like the first was such a big seller so that system or genre install base matters a lot.
 
Jun 7, 2004
114,759
1
0
37
On the other side X looks a high effort sequel to a very well received game.

It's not like the first was such a big seller so that system or genre install base matters a lot.
I agree that it probably won't make that much of of a difference. I'm just pointing out that Xenoblade X is not in a better position than Xenoblade was. There isn't really more marketing, there isn't better marketing, it's on a much weaker selling platform, and there is zero momentum. Every copy it sells will be entirely out of the goodwill of the game quality and word of mouth.
 
Jun 26, 2006
6,265
0
0
In a Dream
I agree that it probably won't make that much of of a difference. I'm just pointing out that Xenoblade X is not in a better position than Xenoblade was. There isn't really more marketing, there isn't better marketing, it's on a much weaker selling platform, and there is zero momentum. Every copy it sells will be entirely out of the goodwill of the game quality and word of mouth.
I'm not sure that can be determined yet.

And as for zero momentum, that's debatable. For a Wii U game it has had good preorder numbers on COMG especially in comparison to other Wii U games.

All the arguments over XCX's performance are sound though, since we really have no comparison on the console. I personally see it opening around XB, which would be great for Nintendo.
 
Jun 7, 2004
114,759
1
0
37
I'm not sure that can be determined yet.

And as for zero momentum, that's debatable. For a Wii U game it has had good preorder numbers on COMG especially in comparison to other Wii U games.

All the arguments over XCX's performance are sound though, since we really have no comparison on the console. I personally see it opening around XB, which would be great for Nintendo.
I was talking about genre momentum. On the Wii at least multiple developers tried offering JRPGs with well known names attached within a 1-2 year span. Xenoblade X stands alone on the WiiU.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
3
0
I was talking about genre momentum. On the Wii at least multiple developers tried offering JRPGs with well known names attached within a 1-2 year span. Xenoblade X stands alone on the WiiU.
the sad thing is that Nintendo treated XenoX way better than Xeno in terms of "communication momentum", announcing its development way earlier in the console life cycle, alsongside with SMTxFE. But nobody else "supported" (for obvious reasons) the genre aside those two games.
 
Feb 14, 2012
7,113
0
0
Newcastle, UK
the sad thing is that Nintendo treated XenoX way better than Xeno in terms of "communication momentum", announcing its development way earlier in the console life cycle, alsongside with SMTxFE. But nobody else "supported" (for obvious reasons) the genre aside those two games.
I'm trying to think though. Are there any medium sized console RPG's that could have released on Wii U in addition to other platforms in the last couple of years? Because aside from Tales, nothing comes to mind on PS3 either. So it's not like companies decided to ignore Wii U. It was more the genrenwas barely present anyway
 
Now, it will be interesting to understand the reasons of this performance. Is it because SQEX was not able to deliver the message, that is the game was worth playing for all who enjoyed the original entry? Is it because 3DS' fatigue? Well, perhaps yes and no; it seems Fire Emblem If is getting a lot of preorders and if that game is going to sell more than Awakening, it will likely be the first reason (Fire Emblem If is more differentiated with respect to the predecessor).
I think its safer to say, given what Nirolak posted above, that its the former. Not much reason to have faith in the sequel if SQEX itself didn't seem to care about it.
Yeah I don't think "3DS fatigue" is really a thing in the same sense it would be after a new system had come out.

The biggest issue for new games currently is:

1.) There's a huge catalog of titles people can buy for cheap (either new or used, varying by title), so there's less incentive to buy a new game unless you play through tons and tons of games on a regular basis.
2.) The system is kind of old now so it's hard to give people the impression of freshness or garner heavy interest on an audio-visual basis.
3.) There's still a lot of games coming out at a fairly regular pace, so beyond the catalog, you have a fairly large amount of upcoming titles you can wait and buy instead while you play your old games (or even games on other systems since there are a lot of releases right now).

The benefit is that there's a huge install base out there, but that's only helpful if you're a notably exciting title. This is generally the basis of market polarization, since a lot of people have the system, but they're all pickier about what they're buying.

Bravely Second came off as a half assed sequel. Fire Emblem If on the other hand, even though we haven't seen a lot, is being presented as a major title that's important to its publisher. It's getting two editions. There's a big special edition and major DLC announced. The production values look good and the content all looks new. They point out the game is three times as large as Awakening if you buy all three campaigns. There's a tie-in card game. There's was a high effort Wii U spin-off game that was announced at the same time. For the more core fans they announced some mechanics changes that could notably switch things up.

If you look at the game you get a sense of importance, the feeling that this is a large title, and that the publisher really cares in a way that never came across with Bravely Second in comparison. It's the kind of title I could actually see benefiting from the late cycle market conditions. Now, I need to see a bit more to really get a sense of it, but the initial showing is promising and I think you see pre-orders reflecting that.
 
Sep 5, 2014
2,009
0
0
I was talking about genre momentum. On the Wii at least multiple developers tried offering JRPGs with well known names attached within a 1-2 year span. Xenoblade X stands alone on the WiiU.
I remember the day that Omega Quintet standing alone as true PS4 jrpg too LOL

if not count DQH and Bloodborne , type0 (170k) is the best seller now?
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
It is also true that if BS is really an half-assed sequel, then expectations should be in check. Lots of assets were re-used, and therefore development costs should not be much higher than BD. Even if it sells slightly worser or the same, SQEX should not be that surprised. I guess it might do well in Western markets, though, at least as long as its release is not that far.
 
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
3
0
It is also true that if BS is really an half-assed sequel, then expectations should be in check. Lots of assets were re-used, and therefore development costs should not be much higher than BD. Even if it sells slightly worser or the same, SQEX should not be that surprised. I guess it might do well in Western markets, though, at least as long as its release is not that far.
I imagine SE would want growth regardless. Having their cake and eating it too.

I won't hold my breath for Bravely Third.
 
Aug 3, 2009
19,285
0
0
Moga Village
I don't know, maybe Xenoblade X doesn't have many pre-order points because people will buy it along with the system? I mean, the new Dragon Quest X expansion pack is coming out around the same time, so if you love JRPG, now is the time to buy a Wii U!

Nintendo should hire me. I think a DQX+XX TV ad would do wonders.
 
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
I don't know, maybe Xenoblade X doesn't have many pre-order points because people will buy it along with the system? I mean, the new Dragon Quest X expansion pack is coming out around the same time, so if you love JRPG, now is the time to buy a Wii U!

Nintendo should hire me. I think a DQX+XX TV ad would do wonders.
They should hire me, instead. I have all the qualifications to... run a physics lab! Diversification baby.
 
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,000
But Bravely Default debuts in 3 days, it's not yet released. I know about YSO's forecasts, usually pretty reliable, but it's not the actual debut. Just to clarify since I've seen people stating BS had a "lower tha expcted" first week despite not being released yet XD
This made me wonder, has YSO ever been way off with their predictions? Their predictions allows for a lot of leaway though, but have they been prediction like "< 50k" and then something ended up selling like 80k?


I don't know, maybe Xenoblade X doesn't have many pre-order points because people will buy it along with the system? I mean, the new Dragon Quest X expansion pack is coming out around the same time, so if you love JRPG, now is the time to buy a Wii U!

Nintendo should hire me. I think a DQX+XX TV ad would do wonders.
Its possible, although it would mean that many of the current WiiU owners arent interested in the game. Well, at least not interested enough to pre-order.
 
Aug 25, 2013
24,331
0
0
This made me wonder, has YSO ever been way off with their predictions? Their predictions allows for a lot of leaway though, but have they been prediction like "< 50k" and then something ended up selling like 80k?
the last huge whiff was on Majora's Mask 3D week 2, they predicted less than Ocarina of Time 3D week 2 and failed horribly

Pokemon ORAS also trolled them last holiday
 
This made me wonder, has YSO ever been way off with their predictions? Their predictions allows for a lot of leaway though, but have they been prediction like "< 50k" and then something ended up selling like 80k?
Yes, it's possible that the game will do a fair bit better or a fair bit worse.

They tend to be pretty on, but not always as theprodigy points out.
 
Jan 11, 2012
16,582
3
0
I did think Bravely Second could sell more than Bravely Default. I do not think it is laughable: before preorders started, it was difficult to get an idea of how much it would have sold. We are predicting a lot of things, so sometimes we are wrong.

Bravely Default sold around 400k units considering For the Sequel and budget and digital versions; the game was well-regarded (is the anime still on-going?) and the fact that For the Sequel sold well showed some interesting in the game over time.

I am not ashamed of predicting such a high LTD (why should I? We are discussing about sales all the time), because I did think it would have been possible. Now the outcome looks more bleak, and therefore I am not predicting as much. Perhaps the second week drop will not be harsh because of Golden Week and therefore it will be less front-loaded than usual (being a sequel).

Now, it will be interesting to understand the reasons of this performance. Is it because SQEX was not able to deliver the message, that is the game was worth playing for all who enjoyed the original entry? Is it because 3DS' fatigue? Well, perhaps yes and no; it seems Fire Emblem If is getting a lot of preorders and if that game is going to sell more than Awakening, it will likely be the first reason (Fire Emblem If is more differentiated with respect to the predecessor).


Bravely Second wont sell well because Square Enix is too stupid to market it. They already did it with Bravely Default: Printing too few copies first month, little marketing, no wish to localise it. It sold 300k in Japan, nearly a million worldwide.
How do Square Enix react ?
Even less marketing than the first one, still a small budget, not a single word on a worldwide release.
Square Enix expect growth with less efforts than they put on a title they had no trust to begin with.



I imagine SE would want growth regardless. Having their cake and eating it too.

I won't hold my breath for Bravely Third.

I won't either. Square Enix successfully killed a new IP that had a lot of potential. I wouldn't hold my breath for a western release, they'll just see "Didn't sold more than 200k in Japan, no localisation".
 
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
0
0
I don't know, maybe Xenoblade X doesn't have many pre-order points because people will buy it along with the system? I mean, the new Dragon Quest X expansion pack is coming out around the same time, so if you love JRPG, now is the time to buy a Wii U!

Nintendo should hire me. I think a DQX+XX TV ad would do wonders.
I'm sure that would attract lots of people to buy the WiiU.....like 20k more.
 
Sep 5, 2014
2,009
0
0
DQX and Xenoblade X both are time consuming game
I call it bad decision here, cause I (and many Japanese players) have to choose and can not focus playing both at the same time

while I'm free as pigeon in middle april, DAMN!

sales maybe overlap too. everyone need golden week's money
 
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
Its possible, although it would mean that many of the current WiiU owners arent interested in the game. Well, at least not interested enough to pre-order.
I'd have to wonder what is the rate of WiiU owners who even pre-order. I don't pre-order Nintendo games anymore but I'll still buy them day one or two because there's no shortage of availability.
 
Jan 25, 2012
22,624
0
0
Ah okay, fair enough.

Is it a smaller franchise than Cardfight?
Vanguard has been around longer and is/was really hot, but from what I've read its started to taper off a bit while Buddyfight is growing in popularity. Someone involved in the Japanese card game scene would probably be able to give a better answer.
Bravely Second wont sell well because Square Enix is too stupid to market it. They already did it with Bravely Default: Printing too few copies first month, little marketing, no wish to localise it. It sold 300k in Japan, nearly a million worldwide.
How do Square Enix react ?
Even less marketing than the first one, still a small budget, not a single word on a worldwide release.
Square Enix expect growth with less efforts than they put on a title they had no trust to begin with.






I won't either. Square Enix successfully killed a new IP that had a lot of potential. I wouldn't hold my breath for a western release, they'll just see "Didn't sold more than 200k in Japan, no localisation".
Nintenndo will probably bring it over due to the success the first game saw in the west.
 
Jul 29, 2010
4,242
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Amazon.co.jp's hourly video game sales charts are amusing, even if they mean very very very little =).

1. P&D: Mario Edition Demo
2. Bravely Second
3. Xbox $20 card (weird...)
4. DQX Wii U
5. DQX Wii
6. Bravely Second (different SKU)?
7. Xenoblade X
8. P&D: Mario Edition
9. YW Busters (whichever is the White cat version)
10. PS4 console
11. Girls Mode 3
12. 3DS charger
13. YW Busters (whichever is the Red Cat version)
14. 360/PC wired controller
15. Fire Emblem If: Dark Night Version
16. YW Busters (white cat) special edition?
17. Sengoku Basara 4 (w/ DLC?)
18. Great Ace Attorney
19. Tropico 5 PS4

All I have to say it's amusing =P.