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Media Create Sales: Week 2, 2017 (Jan 09 - Jan 15)

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
This year is a soft-launch (the shipment figures they've noted, the screen estimates at 10m for the entire year, all of these signs point to a limited production), but the narrative is set: the 3DS is being sent off and the franchise is moving to Switch next year. Also the Gaiden game isn't going to perform like Awakening/Fates, and the 2012 (Awakening)/2015 (Fates)/2018 (Switch) timeline makes perfect sense for the next major entry to be the one coming to Switch. This Gaiden title is going to be a small mover and seemingly decided as not worth the time to port.

With FE:W in fall, the Switch continues to fill in gaps in its line-up for the year as well.

The only curiosity I still have is if the hardware itself is also simply slow. Tegra X1 is a easy to make chip, but, for instance, a slightly smaller Tegra X1 on 16nm w(c)ould be subject to yield problems.

And the mobile game is, as Nirolak noted, a entry that you'd expect of a top mobile dev, so we can see that Nintendo isn't afraid to transition into full mobile titles where they seem to think it fits a series. The title is tailor made for top earning if it catches on, and it also emphasizes lighter play sessions. Core fans are also now lined up with a 3DS title, a Warriors title, and a 2018 Switch title where the game play is to be more indepth and focused.

This Direct was pretty spot on, imo.

The fact they're not putting a bullet in the 3DS immediately is absolutely no surprise.

It always looked like they were slowly winding it down this year before transitioning the handheld franchises to the Switch, and it turns out that that's precisely what they're doing; the addition of a presumably-low budget Fire Emblem remake in no way changes that, and they've announced way ahead of time that the future of the series is to be found on the Switch. This is the first tangible move they've made to show that one of their stalwart handheld franchises is making the transition; the fact that they aren't immediately dropping the 3DS doesn't change that.

Also, just look at that Echoes footage; that would either look entirely unacceptable on a HD platform, or would require a lot more work than the project probably merits.

I agree with both of you. While I wasn't thinking about another Fire Emblem for 3DS actually happening due to my belief it would've been a 2018 title (3 year gap from the latest main game, just like between Awakening and Fates), a re-imagining with recycled assets and engine with a much shorter development time (Echoes' release date is on April 20th in Japan, so a bit less than two years from Fates' one) makes sense, as the final FE title on the platform, in what should be the final year that sees 3DS still as a viable platform (even if probably not as much as 2016). And I suppose Nintendo thought making a Switch version wasn't worth the investment, considering they should've had to heavily revise the visuals.

And yes, the fact they already announced how the next main Fire Emblem title is coming to the Switch next year is a good move: I'm not so fond of announcements made only of logos, with no visual of any kind, but it's a good sign that they already established, while announcing the re-imagining for 3DS, that the next main chapter will be on Switch. The first main title after the brand explosion. And, in the meanwhile, there's Fire Emblem Warriors. No announcement at all for FE Switch would've caused quite the commotion about when the main franchise was going to come on Switch.

Still not completely getting the New 3DS version for Warriors though

P.S. Oregano, don't start Oregano-ing now, you were doing good the past few days :p
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
What did the Wii do in Japan? I thought it sold far better than PS3?

~13M (Wii) vs. ~10M (PS3). The Wii started off great, but tapered off until 2010 (still easily outselling PS3), and then basically stopped selling in 2011. PS3 lasted into 2013 and steadily sold ~1.5M a year after 2009.
 
he's talking about Switch there lol

I'm talking about what I would consider a success for the system in Japan. Will it happen? Who the hell knows. I don't think it is reasonable to guess that it will sell what the Wii U + 3DS did combined though as suggested by Kodiak.
 

Oregano

Member
P.S. Oregano, don't start Oregano-ing now, you were doing good the past few days :p

Honestly it would help if Nintendo actually showed some signs of actually wanting Switch to be a success. Making Splatoon 2 a sequel instead of an expanded port is about the most positive thing I can say for them right now. Literally everything else is garbage so far. I'm salty AF.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Honestly it would help if Nintendo actually showed some signs of actually wanting Switch to be a success. Making Splatoon 2 a sequel instead of an expanded port is about the most positive thing I can say for them right now. Literally everything else is garbage so far. I'm salty AF.
TBF I would would be too but I've largely given up on the system being a substantial success, too many highly questionable decisions that I feel will cost them long term. Which is why I'm fine with the current plan of 3DS support and a successor that's secretly a switch probably. Gives a them the leeway to transition and ditch and maybe this time learn from their mistakes (though I'm not too hopeful of that).
 

Oregano

Member
TBF I would would be too but I've largely given up on the system being a substantial success, too many highly questionable decisions that I feel will cost them long term. Which is why I'm fine with the current plan of 3DS support and a successor that's secretly a switch probably. Gives a them the leeway to transition and ditch and maybe this time learn from their mistakes (though I'm not too hopeful of that).

I'm honestly worried it's too late. This was their make or break moment.

I mean FFS the Switch won't even have a friend's list until fall and you'll need to use a phone to access it(and you will need to pay). It's like they want to fail at this point.
 
The fact that fans are getting 2 switch games down the lines instills confidence in the potential Switch buyer.

It certainly does in me.

The gaps will slowly begin to fill with AC and Pokemon
 

vareon

Member
I wouldn't be surprised if Stars is both for Switch and 3DS this holiday. They are seriously committed to their 3DS 2017 support it seems.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
I'm honestly worried it's too late. This was their make or break moment.

I mean FFS the Switch won't even have a friend's list until fall and you'll need to use a phone to access it(and you will need to pay). It's like they want to fail at this point.
The whole console is half assed, clearly not ready for primetime and surprisingly bullish (subscription fee for online play with VC games? Come on now.) It should have released in the fall at the very least. There's absolutely no advantage to potentially screwing up such a important hardware launch outside of FY Results. Which the definition of short sighted thinking. They may not survive in the console market but at that point they have noone to blame but themselves
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Honestly it would help if Nintendo actually showed some signs of actually wanting Switch to be a success. Making Splatoon 2 a sequel instead of an expanded port is about the most positive thing I can say for them right now. Literally everything else is garbage so far. I'm salty AF.

Seriously? Splatoon 2 is the only sign Nintendo showed to make this console a success? Hardware / first Nintendo titles announced and coming this year / some of the Japanese third party titles already revealed are far, faaar from the "garbage" you've spouted. It's unfortunate for the paid online though, that's something I didn't want at all :(

In general, what about chilling down, and trying to be more patient? This is not about criticising Nintendo (I've just criticised Nintendo for the paid online, so!), it's about trying to jumping less to doomtastic conclusions, letting your emotions completely obscure your rational thinking. Breath in, breath out, calm your stream of mixed emotions and thoughts.

Honestly, I feel I'll have to say that to myself a lot if Pokemon Stars exists, but it's not coming out on Switch at all, not even as a multi-platform game. Hopefullythings go as the rumours stated :lol
 

Hellraider

Member
I wouldn't be surprised if Stars is both for Switch and 3DS this holiday. They are seriously committed to their 3DS 2017 support it seems.

We should also not be surprised if it is a 3DS exclusive. We have taken this leak for a little too granted, if you ask me.
 

Oregano

Member
Seriously? Splatoon 2 is the only sign Nintendo showed to make this console a success? Hardware / first Nintendo titles announced and coming this year / some of the Japanese third party titles already revealed are far, faaar from the "garbage" you've spouted. It's unfortunate for the paid online though, that's something I didn't want at all :(

In general, what about chilling down, and trying to be more patient? This is not about criticising Nintendo (I've just criticised Nintendo for the paid online, so!), it's about trying to jumping less to doomtastic conclusions, letting your emotions completely obscure your rational thinking. Breath in, breath out, calm your stream of mixed emotions and thoughts.

Honestly, I feel I'll have to say that to myself a lot if Pokemon Stars exists, but it's not coming out on Switch at all, not even as a multi-platform game. Hopefullythings go as the rumours stated :lol

Splatoon 2 is literally their only heavy hitter on Switch right now. Zelda isn't that big(and is on Wii U too), Arms is a new IP, 3D Mario is not that big and Xenoblade is niche as they come.

I've been patient. I'm not sure how much longer I'm supposed to wait for Nintendo to get their act together. Paying for online is not necessarily that bad of a thing. The fact that Switch will have no native network functionality is. We're being asked to pay for a service worse than the 3DS.

Looking rationally at the facts as they present themselves right now tells me that Switch is going to be a disaster. I honestly want it to do well and be a good product but it's just sounding like it's going to be.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Looking rationally at the facts as they present themselves right now tells me that Switch is going to be a disaster. I honestly want it to do well and be a good product but it's just sounding like it's going to be.

Just always assume it's going to be an utter failure and sell 0 units and then you'll be pleasantly surprised :p. Honestly if it goes down that badly, investors will likely push out the current leadership and Nintendo will move on in some fashion. Honestly, with Fire Emblem mobile fashioned properly, as well as Mario & Zelda on Switch, they clearly have their head on straight in terms of software. In terms of platforms and infrastructure... well that'll take time I guess. Maybe DeNA can help there.


So here's the upcoming 3DS games list for this year thus far. The bolded titles are what I think are the bigger titles (at least over 100K).

January:
01/19 Poochy! to Yoshi Woolly World
01/25 Kamen Rider Atsume Power Disc Slam

February:
02/09 Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional

March:
03/02 Doraemon the Movie: Nobita no Nankyoku Kachikochi Daibouken
03/16 Future Card Buddyfight Mezase! Buddy Champion! Manga-ka Debut Monogatari: Suteki na Manga o Egakou
Stella Glow (Kaidoku Han)
03/18 Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross
03/30 Mario Sports Superstars

Shingeki no Kyojin: Shichi-Kara no Dasshutsu
The Alliance Alive

April:
04/20 Pro Yakyuu Famista Climax
04/20 Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia

Out of curiosity, anyone think it may be too soon for another FE game? Or is it more that they want to put out a new game that people can buy after playing FE mobile (just like Pokemon Go & Star/Moon 6 months later)?
 
Splatoon 2 is literally their only heavy hitter on Switch right now. Zelda isn't that big(and is on Wii U too), Arms is a new IP, 3D Mario is not that big and Xenoblade is niche as they come.

3D Land sold better than Splatoon did. Yeah, a few 3D Mario games didn't have amazing sales in Japan, but I don't think you can really say that "3D Mario is not that big", unless the only Nintendo games you think are big are Pokemon, Animal Crossing and Mario Kart.

I mean, they've announced a sequel to their biggest new IP in years for the summer, and a big new Mario game (their flagship franchise even if it's not the #1 selling one) this holiday season. There's also Xenoblade 2 (not as big a seller, sure, but it's built up a name for itself so far) this year as well, and a new entry in Fire Emblem, one of their fastest growing franchises for next year. That seems like decent support so far, in addition to ports, Zelda, some new IPs (and Arms definitely has potential to be a breakout hit), and the fact that Nintendo tends to announce some games quite late.

It's kind of silly to act like there's nothing coming aside from Splatoon.
 

Busaiku

Member
3D Land sold better than Splatoon did. Yeah, a few 3D Mario games didn't have amazing sales in Japan, but I don't think you can really say that "3D Mario is not that big", unless the only Nintendo games you think are big are Pokemon, Animal Crossing and Mario Kart.

3D Land is very different from Odyssey.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Looks like Watch Dogs 2 has outsold Watch Dogs 1. Interesting. The game also seems to have better legs despite lower first week sales.

Famitsu #s
54 Watch Dogs 65.630 95.490 Ubisoft 26/06/2014
57 Watch Dogs 2 46.819 98.816 Ubisoft 01/12/2016

Congrats to another million seller with Super Mario Maker 3DS
05./01. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS <ACT> (Nintendo) {2016.12.01} (¥4.700) - 29.944 / 1.014.275 <80-100%> (-76%)
 

hiska-kun

Member
Looks like Watch Dogs 2 has outsold Watch Dogs 1. Interesting. The game also seems to have better legs despite lower first week sales.

Famitsu #s
54 Watch Dogs 65.630 95.490 Ubisoft 26/06/2014
57 Watch Dogs 2 46.819 98.816 Ubisoft 01/12/2016

Congrats to another million seller with Super Mario Maker 3DS
05./01. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS <ACT> (Nintendo) {2016.12.01} (¥4.700) - 29.944 / 1.014.275 <80-100%> (-76%)

But Watch Dogs was also released in PS3, so technically WD2 hasn't outsell it yet.

02./00. [PS4] Watch Dogs <ADV> (Ubisoft) {2014.06.26} (¥9.072) - 65.630 / NEW <80-100%>
05./00. [PS3] Watch Dogs <ADV> (Ubisoft) {2014.06.26} (¥7.992) - 39.060 / NEW <60-80%>
 

horuhe

Member
So here's the upcoming 3DS games list for this year thus far. The bolded titles are what I think are the bigger titles (at least over 100K).

February:
02/09 Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional

Even though 100k are a lock at this point, this game gonna be a bloodbath. I mean, no one asked for it. Joker 3 was horribly overshipped, and this won't be much different.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
But Watch Dogs was also released in PS3, so technically WD2 hasn't outsell it yet.

02./00. [PS4] Watch Dogs <ADV> (Ubisoft) {2014.06.26} (¥9.072) - 65.630 / NEW <80-100%>
05./00. [PS3] Watch Dogs <ADV> (Ubisoft) {2014.06.26} (¥7.992) - 39.060 / NEW <60-80%>

Oh right >_>... Well at least the title seems to be showing good legs. Hopefully it'll get there eventually.
 

casiopao

Member
Thanks for Youkai, MHS, and FFXV for ruining my prediction there.T_T Damn underperformers.

Bandai Namco also announced Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X for 3DS. It's out April 27th.

3DS Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission - 90.119 / 299.001 Bandai Namco 2/28/2013
3DS Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission 2 - 70.832 / 219.993 Bandai Namco 8/7/2014

3DS is never going to die huh lol.

DQM 3 Professional
MHXX
FE:Echoes
Ever Oasis
DBH:UMX

Is this is finally going to be the true true final year of 3DS lol.^^
 

Usobuko

Banned
I don't think I could be more impressed with how well made Fire Emblem Heroes is for the modern Japanese mobile market.

1.) It's very similar to the source game, with some amount of simplification to befit shorter play sessions and the wider audience. This is currently the leading form of mobile f2p RPG gameplay in Japan.

2.) Great production values, with heavy use of 2D elements to ensure a reasonable download size and content production rate while still looking very good. This is also very important, and for example, is one of the major successes driving games like Fate/Grand Order, and even back in the day, games like Granblue Fantasy.

3.) The gacha method allows for major spending, but also has risk amortization in that each additional summon is cheaper. You can also select the type of hero you're after by selecting the orb color. This is similar to how a lot of gacha games are modifying their mechanics to both be wary of regulation, and more friendly to players who spend money, but not hundreds of dollars. Very smart. Similarly, your 3 star characters can be upgraded into 5 stars over time, so you don't have to hunt down the 5 star version if you're someone who prefers to put in lots of time. Also very smart.

4.) Good pre-registration campaign. CG intro video that sells the concept of the game. Gets in characters from every era with included voice acting. The Google Play store has images with the correct language and composition for marketing a mobile game. Should attract lots of interest from people who have played Fire Emblem across the ages, as well as people looking for shiny mobile games.

5.) The game has lots of modes and a strong event structure built in right at launch. These are critical for keeping up user engagement, and many games fail (or have to be revived) for taking too long to add such things. That they're there at the start speaks very well for the potential staying power.

You would think this was the newest flagship release from a 5+ year major player in the mobile market. I guess it technically it, given it's DeNA, but still, this is even a step up for them.

Revenue wise, it's slightly iOS tilted, but companies will sometimes release on Android first if they want to see if their pricing needs adjustment prior to the iOS launch. They might also be concerned about potential day one server traffic.

With Fire Emblem's husbando / waifu size, a gacha system is the perfect fit for it. But if you were Nintendo, how will you tackle Animal Crossing F2P style?
 

Sycoraxic98

Neo Member
Very strong sales for Kingdom Hearts. Surprised Danganronpa sold that well, as well. Just beat it myself and was very disappointed by it - will be very curious to see if it has a sales tale. I know I wasn't the only one...
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Nice write up.

Is Animal Crossing mobile still due before the end of march?
Thanks. And yes, it's still supposed to be Q1.

With Fire Emblem's husbando / waifu size, a gacha system is the perfect fit for it. But if you were Nintendo, how will you tackle Animal Crossing F2P style?

I think Animal Crossing is the harder one. Town building games have actually become less popular these days, because town building is now just a mechanic in other games, and I think that type of huge timer based town building game is a bit less Nintendo-esque (while also not capturing the core of Animal Crossing as well as Fire Emblem does).

I wonder if they'll effectively break down Animal Crossing into a bunch of smaller modes, like one where you run a shop, one where you build your house, one where you build a town, and then some minigame to get resources. There would of course also be town events. It's a bit harder to predict than Fire Emblem.
 

Vena

Member
I think Animal Crossing is the harder one. Town building games have actually become less popular these days, because town building is now just a mechanic in other games, and I think that type of huge timer based town building game is a bit less Nintendo-esque (while also not capturing the core of Animal Crossing as well as Fire Emblem does).

I wonder if they'll effectively break down Animal Crossing into a bunch of smaller modes, like one where you run a shop, one where you build your house, one where you build a town, and then some minigame to get resources. There would of course also be town events. It's a bit harder to predict than Fire Emblem.

I picture AC would be minor mini-games, kind of like how Happy Home Designer was a "mode" turned into a game.
 
So very likely Fire Emblem Heros will do well in Japan?

Seems very polished.

Edit: Oh, I just literally saw that Nirolak post. Sounds good
 

duckroll

Member
Animal Crossing just needs to be a Miitomo that doesn't suck balls. A cute and lightweight social app with a ton of dress up and avatar options, a nice town to interact with cute animals, home decoration, social hooks that allow you to show off your avatar and room. The most important factor is that it cannot be bloated and slowass. If people want to uninstall it everytime it launches, you fucked up. Oh and I think the biggest social hook needs to be gifting. Being able to put together stuff you think a friend might like and send gifts daily or weekly is a good way to get people to continue playing the game if everyone else is.
 

Busaiku

Member
I don't know why people are surprised with 3DS support this year.
Nintendo/3rd parties always support the last Nintendo handheld well during the launch year of the new gen.

But they flee like a plague case the following year.
 

Usobuko

Banned
I think Animal Crossing is the harder one. Town building games have actually become less popular these days, because town building is now just a mechanic in other games, and I think that type of huge timer based town building game is a bit less Nintendo-esque (while also not capturing the core of Animal Crossing as well as Fire Emblem does).

I wonder if they'll effectively break down Animal Crossing into a bunch of smaller modes, like one where you run a shop, one where you build your house, one where you build a town, and then some minigame to get resources. There would of course also be town events. It's a bit harder to predict than Fire Emblem.

Yeah, I think so too. The only one that is popular and I can think of atm was Hay Day. That's a relatively old game that rides on the back of farmville and where competition in mobile sphere isn't as intense as today's.

Town building is everywhere these days. Makes me wonder if orbs in FE will be used to "speed" up town building like the rest of the its kind. Gacha is really addictive too, there are even plenty of youtube videos that show people rolling for characters that gathered ten/hundred of thousands views.

I think AC mobile is really an interesting IP to watch for mobile iteration. While it seems difficult to monetize effectively, its appeal is more widespread throughout the world than Fire Emblem.
 

duckroll

Member
I don't know why people are surprised with 3DS support this year.
Nintendo/3rd parties always support the last Nintendo handheld well during the launch year of the new gen.

But they flee like a plague case the following year.

That's what I said after the Switch reveal. That for 2017 it will be a console focused device, while the 3DS will continue to get big-ish titles from third parties and Nintendo throughout the year, and at the Fall 2017 Direct they will reposition the Switch as a portable for 2018 with the announcement of portable franchises finally moving to Switch, like Monster Hunter and Pokemon.

But no, I was told that since the Switch is announced, it's unlikely Nintendo will have another Fire Emblem for 3DS! :p
 

Vena

Member
That's what I said after the Switch reveal. That for 2017 it will be a console focused device, while the 3DS will continue to get big-ish titles from third parties and Nintendo throughout the year, and at the Fall 2017 Direct they will reposition the Switch as a portable for 2018 with the announcement of portable franchises finally moving to Switch, like Monster Hunter and Pokemon.

But no, I was told that since the Switch is announced, it's unlikely Nintendo will have another Fire Emblem for 3DS! :p

Didn't even need to wait till Fall. They did that today! :p
 
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