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Media Create Sales: Week 2, 2017 (Jan 09 - Jan 15)

Vena

Member
Not really?

FE to a lot of people is nowadays considered a handheld franchise, no? So their announcement of the 2018 project is right in line with your expectation for: "portable franchises finally moving to Switch".

Unless I misread!
 

duckroll

Member
FE to a lot of people is nowadays considered a handheld franchise, no? So their announcement of the 2018 project is right in line with your expectation for: "portable franchises finally moving to Switch".

Unless I misread!

Oh, no. I think we all already expect that to eventually happen. What I mean is, starting in Fall 2017, I expect Nintendo to aggressively push the Switch as a portable, with actual software being shown that will attract portable gamers to want to buy the system as a replacement for the 3DS moving forward, and possibly hardware SKU changes to accommodate the market. Simply saying "there will be an untitled FE game of some sort for Switch in 2018" doesn't mean anything to consumers right now.
 

Vena

Member
Oh, no. I think we all already expect that to eventually happen. What I mean is, starting in Fall 2017, I expect Nintendo to aggressively push the Switch as a portable, with actual software being shown that will attract portable gamers to want to buy the system as a replacement for the 3DS moving forward, and possibly hardware SKU changes to accommodate the market. Simply saying "there will be an untitled FE game of some sort for Switch in 2018" doesn't mean anything to consumers right now.

Ahh, got it.
 

Sandfox

Member
Thanks. And yes, it's still supposed to be Q1.



I think Animal Crossing is the harder one. Town building games have actually become less popular these days, because town building is now just a mechanic in other games, and I think that type of huge timer based town building game is a bit less Nintendo-esque (while also not capturing the core of Animal Crossing as well as Fire Emblem does).

I wonder if they'll effectively break down Animal Crossing into a bunch of smaller modes, like one where you run a shop, one where you build your house, one where you build a town, and then some minigame to get resources. There would of course also be town events. It's a bit harder to predict than Fire Emblem.
AC is popular with females so I would probably make something targeted more at that audience, though you could argue that's limiting a strong ip.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
this gonna be a problem for switch

Not really - Switch was always gonna have to stand on its own concept and games. A weaker 3DS lineup would have necessarily meant that people would pick up Switches if they arent convinced by the platforms.
 
That's what I said after the Switch reveal. That for 2017 it will be a console focused device, while the 3DS will continue to get big-ish titles from third parties and Nintendo throughout the year, and at the Fall 2017 Direct they will reposition the Switch as a portable for 2018 with the announcement of portable franchises finally moving to Switch, like Monster Hunter and Pokemon.

But no, I was told that since the Switch is announced, it's unlikely Nintendo will have another Fire Emblem for 3DS! :p

I'm not that surprised Nintendo is going that route but I do wonder how effective a strategy it will be. It's hard to change the perception of your console that far into its life span. If the switch is already struggling sales wise by the fall will Nintendo be able to turn that round?
 

duckroll

Member
I'm not that surprised Nintendo is going that route but I do wonder how effective a strategy it will be. It's hard to change the perception of your console that far into its life span. If the switch is already struggling sales wise by the fall will Nintendo be able to turn that round?

Do you think they'll be able to turn it around if they start selling a 200 dollar portable Switch in 2018 with Monster Hunter, Fire Emblem, Pokemon, and all the 2017 console franchise already on it? Because that's what I think will likely happen.
 

Oregano

Member
Do you think they'll be able to turn it around if they start selling a 200 dollar portable Switch in 2018 with Monster Hunter, Fire Emblem, Pokemon, and all the 2017 console franchise already on it? Because that's what I think will likely happen.

There's three key issues I can see:
1) Third parties are going to drop Switch hard by that point
2) Because of 1 2 Switch and Just Dance they can't make a smaller Switch because they need to keep the Joycons
3) They are going to kill anything online at the end of 2017 by asking a monthly fee for the privilege of using a smartphone app for basic functionality(a lot of which you can do natively on the Wii U for free). From the sounds of it we won't even be able to add friends until then.

They've deliberately chosen to impede their chances of success.
 

hiska-kun

Member
It's funny because pre-orders for Fire Emblem Echoes have already started but pre-orders for Switch won't start until Saturday 21st.
 
3) They are going to kill anything online at the end of 2017 by asking a monthly fee

I think this might be the system's most severe issue. People who play Mario Kart, Splatoon or Smash Bros. casually every now and then for free on Wii U will not pay for it on the Switch. They just won't buy the games.

Either I'm missing something genius about this or they need to Xbone those plans ASAP.
 

Oregano

Member
I think this might be the system's most severe issue. People who play Mario Kart, Splatoon or Smash Bros. casually every now and then for free on Wii U will not pay for it on the Switch. They just won't buy the games.

Either I'm missing something genius about this or they need to Xbone those plans ASAP.

No you're right.

I'd say a monthly fee could work if it cheap and a good service with good online features. The problem is we already know they're failing at the latter and Nintendo can't be trusted to make anything affordable now.
 

duckroll

Member
I guess the question is - for portable gamers in Japan, how important is online play anyway?

Is Splatoon, Mario Kart, and Smash Brothers going to lose all multiplayer value as portable games because of online gating? That's something to think about.
 

Oregano

Member
I guess the question is - for portable gamers in Japan, how important is online play anyway?

Is Splatoon, Mario Kart, and Smash Brothers going to lose all multiplayer value as portable games because of online gating? That's something to think about.

For Splatoon at least that's a franchise that become popular off the back of it's online functionality, even if it has massive potential for local multiplayer.

Either way it's only going to hurt.
 

Shengar

Member
That's what I'm saying.

These models have less polygons than something like Pokemon (which would look good enough with just an uprez)
Rather than uprez, I would say they are returned to their original state :p
If they uprezzed Echoes (edit), there would be some backlash cause it'd be ugly. The work to make it not ugly might not be worth it.

We should also not be surprised if it is a 3DS exclusive. We have taken this leak for a little too granted, if you ask me.
Pokemon Stars is the kind of game that would be perfect for transition. The assets of Pokemon SM looks actually downrezzed from a HD title and wouldn't look overtly bad when ported to Switch, Nintendo would be pretty stupid if they going to make it 3DS exclusive.
I guess the question is - for portable gamers in Japan, how important is online play anyway?

Is Splatoon, Mario Kart, and Smash Brothers going to lose all multiplayer value as portable games because of online gating? That's something to think about.

That's a good question. PSP and Monster Hunter pretty much had shaped set Japan as adhoc land. MH4U and MHX have functional online mode, but we know it doesn't affect the sales that much.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
It's funny because pre-orders for Fire Emblem Echoes have already started but pre-orders for Switch won't start until January 21st.

Ah yes, our first indication on how the Japanese market is reacting towards the Switch. It's going to be extremely interesting, and, right now, I'm especially interested in 1 2 Switch: watching how that game made it into top 20s, if not top 10s across different Amazon charts has been extremely surprising for me (but, actually, not the only surprise, especially on Amazon.com), and I wonder if the same could happen once pre-orders start on Amazon.jp.
 

casiopao

Member
For Splatoon at least that's a franchise that become popular off the back of it's online functionality, even if it has massive potential for local multiplayer.

Either way it's only going to hurt.

Considering how we see that Splatoon is playable adhoc, i don't think that it is going to hurt Switch that much there.

For the avid fans that actually love to play online, it is not going to be hard to choose on whether to pay for the online cost or not there. For casual, the adhoc feature can be what they choose to play if they don't want to pay for the online cost.
 
Do you think they'll be able to turn it around if they start selling a 200 dollar portable Switch in 2018 with Monster Hunter, Fire Emblem, Pokemon, and all the 2017 console franchise already on it? Because that's what I think will likely happen.

If they can actually get it down to $200 so soon that would have a huge impact. I think in Japan things will work out well. It's the west where I'm not confident.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Switch first 9 months still sucks, but yesterday's Direct at least indicates the actual will they intend to follow going forward imho.
it IS a positive news, because it IS an official news/announcement about their woftwre pipe line
 

duckroll

Member
If they can actually get it down to $200 so soon that would have a huge impact. I think in Japan things will work out well. It's the west where I'm not confident.

No dock, adjusted form factor, joycon mini which is cheaper to produce and optimized for portable/tabletop only. Plays the same games. (This is just me shooting off ideas.)
 
The fact that fans are getting 2 switch games down the lines instills confidence in the potential Switch buyer.

It certainly does in me.

Is this not what they did with Wii U in January 2013 too? "Don't worry, Wii U will be getting Fire Emblem! with Shin Megami Tensei too. And Xenoblade and Yoshi and Zelda, please have faith in our platform!"

Not that I'm saying the outcome will be the same, but still.
 

noobie

Banned
PS4 is gonna outsell Ps3 on Japan and maybe even Wii, what a turn around.

are we not jumping on the conclusion too quickly. There were times Wii was selling at much higher pace then PS2 and then in the end it barely beat PS1.
There is still 6 million to go before PS4 can over take PS3 and thinking about beating Wii. and PS3 did quite well in the later years. We are not sure if PS4 will have same level of sales in 2018 and beyond.

So i think there is a high probability of it selling around 10 million but there is also a possibility it sell less than 10 million.
 

duckroll

Member
Is this not what they did with Wii U in January 2013 too? "Don't worry, Wii U will be getting Fire Emblem! with Shin Megami Tensei too. And Xenoblade and Yoshi and Zelda, please have faith in our platform!"

Not that I'm saying the outcome will be the same, but still.

Well to be fair the WiiU does have all those games!
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Super Bomberman R is confirmed as £50 in the UK which makes it over ¥7,000 in Japan and D.0.A.

...I fear this could be a case where the UK price is way higher than in other countries: GameStop has put it at $49.99, and it's 49.99 Euros on Amazon.de as well.
 
are we not jumping on the conclusion too quickly. There were times Wii was selling at much higher pace then PS2 and then in the end it barely beat PS1.
There is still 6 million to go before PS4 can over take PS3 and thinking about beating Wii. and PS3 did quite well in the later years. We are not sure if PS4 will have same level of sales in 2018 and beyond.

So i think there is a high probability of it selling around 10 million but there is also a possibility it sell less than 10 million.
Are you saying all support for PS4 will dry up as the console matures?

I mean it isn't comparable to Wii in any way or shape since it is going to get supported for a long time.
 

noshten

Member
After the Fire Emblem direct, it is good to serve the people crow who were predicting Switch taking over 3DS this year.

Switch is taking over - Splatoon 2 and Minecraft alone will sell as much software as the top 10 on the 3DS for 2017. It will be quite clear that 3DS will retain any indie and 1st party titles that could be down-ported and run on the system. 60 million people didn't just suddenly disappear, we just saw how well SMM has done on the system in Japan. Compare that to Pokken, StarFox, Paper Mario: Color Splash, Twilight Princess HD - which were on the Wii U this year. SMM 3DS outsold their combined totals. These aren't small projects. Until there is signs of 3DS slowing down because it doesn't have things like Splatoon and Minecraft - it should still be supported. It's also far less of a risk to do something like SMM or FE Echoes to coincide with a Mobile game launch.
It's questionable how many new 3DS will be sold when Nintendo has a new device on the market. While we have a projection for minimum 10 million Switches being produced by the end of 2017. People are overselling how good 3DS was at launch when comparing it to the Switch - I think as a portable console and local player on the go machine its far more attractive. The joycons are far more comfortable for a kid than holding a massive 3DS. It's easier to demonstrate to someone than launch 3DS, and honestly at least to me 3D on the 3DS was not impressive. I feel things like rumble feedback, gyro, 2-8 local multiplayer or the dock for the TV are far more impressive and far easier to catch on.
Also Splatoon 2 and Minecraft are bigger than any game 3DS got during it's first 12 months - while Zelda is also poised to be huge game that moves a lot of hardware. I honestly don't know what will sell more Zelda or Splatoon 2 WW.



1vZOfPn.jpg

Just to put things into perspective - Mario Odyssey is 3rd WW search term, I've included every game with also their Japanese equivalent.
 

ethomaz

Banned
No dock, adjusted form factor, joycon mini which is cheaper to produce and optimized for portable/tabletop only. Plays the same games. (This is just me shooting off ideas.)
This.

Late this year Nintendo will start to sell a sub $250 Switch without dock.

It is a pretty clear move.
 

Branduil

Member
There's three key issues I can see:
1) Third parties are going to drop Switch hard by that point
2) Because of 1 2 Switch and Just Dance they can't make a smaller Switch because they need to keep the Joycons
3) They are going to kill anything online at the end of 2017 by asking a monthly fee for the privilege of using a smartphone app for basic functionality(a lot of which you can do natively on the Wii U for free). From the sounds of it we won't even be able to add friends until then.

They've deliberately chosen to impede their chances of success.

Oh, no. However could buyers of a hypothetical mini-Switch live without those games.
 

Oregano

Member
Oh, no. However could buyers of a hypothetical mini-Switch live without those games.

If it was up to me I'd do it anyway but I doubt Nintendo wants to add another layer of convolution.

Also WTF at Bomberman being budget price in Japan and close to full price everywhere else.

It might work out cheaper to import!?
 

Alrus

Member
I just lol'd! I still feel it's over-priced even for Japan though. Maybe that price with a Bomberman amiibo packed it:)

I mean, I know Bomberman isn't a super popular brand but as far as I know, it's still a full fledged game so I don't understand why it would need to be super budget priced. Doubt it was going to sell particularly well no matter the price anyway.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
I just lol'd! I still feel it's over-priced even for Japan though. Maybe that price with a Bomberman amiibo packed it:)

Bust-A-Move, Puyo Puyo and Pac-Man went for that price on 3DS. Ridge Racer 3D was 5.800 at launch. Why would you expect something different on Switch.
 

L~A

Member
I suppose the Fire Emblem Gaiden remake is a project not as resource-intensive as other main titles of the series (see the smaller window compared to the one between Awakening and Fates), so they can have a nice send-off for the main series on the platform, while diverting most of their resources on the Switch game, coming out next year.

About FE Switch, I'm actually glad they've already announced it, despite no visual at all, since it sends the message that's where the series will go next.

Sincerly, not comprehending that much why Musou is also coming exclusively to New 3DS: it won't do that much, and the Switch version should still be the best selling version. I suppose this goes in line with trying to support the 3DS, even if with mostly outsourced / smaller titles.

Fire Emblem Echoes is quite clearly a lower-budget effort (re-used engine and assets, significantly lower animation quality though still decent), that was completed a while ago (it releasing in EU/NA simultaneously one month after Japan is absolutely unheard of for the series), and that Nintendo has been keeping for syngergy with the mobile game.

Miitomo was used to launch NA (and My Nintendo).
Pokémon had Pokémon SM.
Super Mario Run had SSM3DS.
FE Heroes will have FE Echoes.
My guess is they have something for Animal Crossing, but not really sure what tbh. Animal Crossing: Newer Leaf?

I don't think I could be more impressed with how well made Fire Emblem Heroes is for the modern Japanese mobile market.

How dare you forget KanColle-style clothes destuction? ;) (Granted, it's a lot less revealing, but still, that "feature" isn't there by chance).


Bandai Namco also announced Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X for 3DS. It's out April 27th.

3DS Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission - 90.119 / 299.001 Bandai Namco 2/28/2013
3DS Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission 2 - 70.832 / 219.993 Bandai Namco 8/7/2014

Just checked this morning, and even Dragon Ball Z: Extreme Butoden is at 150k (Famitsu), so the DB games did pretty well on 3DS. Not surprised there's a third one.

It's funny because pre-orders for Fire Emblem Echoes have already started but pre-orders for Switch won't start until Saturday 21st.

I wonder if there's anything special for January 21st, Japan is the only region where pre-orders didn't start right away last week.
 

BriBri

Member
Bust-A-Move, Puyo Puyo and Pac-Man went for that price on 3DS. Ridge Racer 3D was 5.800 at launch. Why would you expect something different on Switch.
Because none of those franchises were popular to see any or many sequels at that price and I can buy Bomberman '93 and '94 for ¥617 on Wii U Virtual Console. Both with a better perspective.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Do you think Puyo Puyo isn't popular? 4800 was the standard price for most 3DS games with very few going at 3800.

If you expect 3DS low bar pricing for new retail releases on Switch it isn't happening.
 

BriBri

Member
Do you think Puyo Puyo isn't popular? 4800 was the standard price for most 3DS games with very few going at 3800.

If you expect 3DS low bar pricing for new retail releases on Switch it isn't happening.

Puyo Puyo is popular when priced accordingly as seen by the Mini Version selling well on the eShop.
 
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