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Media Create Sales: Week 21, 2017 (May 22 - May 28)

Orgen

Member
There's always the possibility that Gamefreak aren't working on Switch at all and don't plan to. Nintendo might actually be dumb enough to release a distinct handheld as Orgen has suggested.



It sure as hell wasn't a bad thing.

I know I sound like a broken record but Switch is a home console for Nintendo, period. Maybe the tune changes next year just like the "DS is a third pillar... but now I'm killing the GBA" but for now (and all of 2017) Switch is a home console for them despite what we could argue here.

Knowing that, I think (IMO) that Nintendo is going to ride the 3DS until 2018 and then show the real substitute for the handheld. Will it be a dockless Switch that plays only the same games as Switch? or maybe another handheld that could play the same games as Switch but with another "flavour" so to speak? or maybe it'll have exclusive software just like 3DS? My opinion for now is that it'll be a mix (will play Switch games and will have exclusive ones) but we can discuss this when we have more details available.

But I'll assure you one thing just to ease your meltdowns: In 2017-2018 Switch will have better Japanese third party support than Wii U (easy thing), GameCube (that's better) and I'd dare to say than even Wii (that should be the one to beat in this aspect). Nintendo has risked a lot of its business with Switch and they wanted to have an stellar first year at least on the first party side and I think that they're showing it. There are also third party games planned (at least from Japan) so it's a matter of time until they get announced (unless they got cancelled but I doubt it). But you can keep your meltdowns if the next third party game is not announced for Switch... I'm having fun reading this thread hahaha :)

Personal tastes have nothing to do with the strenght of not or a line up. The only genre that interests me is platformers so I guess this year is crap.

As far as first party support this is one of the strongest pushes Nintendo has given for a first year, the only system that beats it hands down is Wii.

I don't own Wii U neither Switch. From what I saw at videos I can't see I would stick with it for more than a few hours, I'm not interested in shooters.

giphy.gif
 

H13

Member
Anyone ha seen any reaction from
Japanese gamers ? From 2ch regarding main pokemon not yet on switch? i just want to know how they react, are they okay with it? Or is the same reaction as us?
 

Passose

Banned
Really curious about the game's performance. The PSP game sold quite well iirc (at least the first one did).

How is the arcade game doing?
it basically used a ps4 disguised as an arcade machine to run the game to I think it will run as good as the arcade version
If you haven't lived the days of NES/SNES/N64 you don't know what a system having platformers really means.
Idk,but I also love platformers, that's why I bought that useless wii u in the first place, most of its best games are platformers
 
I know I sound like a broken record but Switch is a home console for Nintendo, period. Maybe the tune changes next year just like the "DS is a third pillar... but now I'm killing the GBA" but for now (and all of 2017) Switch is a home console for them despite what we could argue here.

Knowing that, I think (IMO) that Nintendo is going to ride the 3DS until 2018 and then show the real substitute for the handheld. Will it be a dockless Switch that plays only the same games as Switch? or maybe another handheld that could play the same games as Switch but with another "flavour" so to speak? or maybe it'll have exclusive software just like 3DS? My opinion for now is that it'll be a mix (will play Switch games and will have exclusive ones) but we can discuss this when we have more details available.

There must be at least a temptation to release something like a clamshell Switch but with different firmware and a slightly different shaped card slot, and wether it has that distinction could be decided on fairly late on into the hardware design.
As Switch carves out a healthy life for itself I think that chance increases, a second system, mainly relying on straight forward ports but with the promise of exclusives like Pokémon.
 

Fiendcode

Member
it basically used a ps4 disguised as an arcade machine to run the game to I think it will run as good as the arcade version

Idk,but I also love platformers, that's why I bought that useless wii u in the first place, most of its best games are platformers
No, it uses Taito Type X³, not a PS4 based board. Here are the copied specs from wikipedia.


OS: Windows Embedded Standard 7 64bit / Windows XP Embedded SP3 32bit
CPU: Intel Core i5 2400
Chipset: Intel Q67 express
Graphic: AMD RADEON HD 6770
Sound: 7.1ch HD AUDIO
Memory: DDR3 2GB
Storage: HDD 160GB (2.5 inches)
USB: USB3.0 × 2 group + USB2.0 × 2 group
Network: 1Gbit/s × 2 port
Serial: 1 port
Power Supply: 600W
In addition, in Type X³, hardware configuration changes are possible for each game title, following the lineup is as an optional part.
CPU: Intel Core i3/2120, Core i7/2600
Graphic: NVIDIA GeForce GTX560Ti
Memory: Up to 16GB
Storage: Up to 3TB HDD
SSD: 16GB
 

Orgen

Member
If you haven't lived the days of NES/SNES/N64 you don't know what a system having platformers really means.

I've been gaming since Spectrum days :p Do you prefer 2D or 3D platformers? If it's 3D as I'm guessing (big N64 fan like me? Rare Golden years) then yeah, Wii U doesn't have too many (but which platform has?) but if you're a fan of 2D platformers, man, you're missing out!

NSMBU (plus Luigi U), Yoshi WW, Super Mario Maker, Rayman Legends, Kirby (I didn't like this very much) and the best of them: Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze. And you could add indie titles (Shovel Knight), VC games (almost all the good platformers from the consoles you mentioned) and of course Wii games (NSMB Wii and DK Returns).

Platformers is also my favorite genre and I had a blast with Wii U. You can play several games on other platforms (Rayman, Shovel Knight...) but the best ones for me are exclusive to Wii U and makes almost the only good reason to own the device.
 

ggx2ac

Member
There must be at least a temptation to release something like a clamshell Switch but with different firmware and a slightly different shaped card slot, and wether it has that distinction could be decided on fairly late on into the hardware design.
As Switch carves out a healthy life for itself I think that chance increases, a second system, mainly relying on straight forward ports but with the promise of exclusives like Pokémon.

Clarify, are you saying you think there will. be a Switch in a 'handheld only' form, or a handheld that will be completely different to the Switch?

If it's the former, it would be running the same games as the Switch so exclusives make no sense.

If it's the latter, then the two platforms will be cannibalising each other especially with the decision to make Pokémon exclusive to one of them.

Which sounds like creating a Vita.
 

Passose

Banned
Anyone ha seen any reaction from
Japanese gamers ? From 2ch regarding main pokemon not yet on switch? i just want to know how they react, are they okay with it? Or is the same reaction as us?
lots of people from niconico were disappointed by it though
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
I've been gaming since Spectrum days :p Do you prefer 2D or 3D platformers? If it's 3D as I'm guessing (big N64 fan like me? Rare Golden years) then yeah, Wii U doesn't have too many (but which platform has?) but if you're a fan of 2D platformers, man, you're missing out!

NSMBU (plus Luigi U), Yoshi WW, Super Mario Maker, Rayman Legends, Kirby (I didn't like this very much) and the best of them: Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze. And you could add indie titles (Shovel Knight), VC games (almost all the good platformers from the consoles you mentioned) and of course Wii games (NSMB Wii and DK Returns).

Platformers is also my favorite genre and I had a blast with Wii U. You can play several games on other platforms (Rayman, Shovel Knight...) but the best ones for me are exclusive to Wii U and makes almost the only good reason to own the device.

Golden days of Rare was my favorite period and as far as 2d platformers whatever Wii U had was a a drop in the ocean comparing to 90s.
 
Clarify, are you saying you think there will. be a Switch in a 'handheld only' form, or a handheld that will be completely different to the Switch?

If it's the former, it would be running the same games as the Switch so exclusives make no sense.

If it's the latter, then the two platforms will be cannibalising each other especially with the decision to make Pokémon exclusive to one of them.

Which sounds like creating a Vita.

I'm saying I expect something with the same processor as the Switch but unsure on what it would be, Either a different shaped Switch with identical software library, or a new platform they can make a lot of very simple ports to with a few tweaks to remove local multiplayer etc.
Pokémon is something Vita never had, so I'm not counting out the possibility.
 

Branduil

Member
There is zero chance the next "Nintendo Handheld" isn't just a smaller, single-piece Switch. Seriously, after going to all this trouble to unify their development teams, a new dedicated handheld with its own separate software would be the dumbest gaming industry decision of all time.
 
I'm saying I expect something with the same processor as the Switch but unsure on what it would be, Either a different shaped Switch with identical software library, or a new platform they can make a lot of very simple ports to with a few tweaks to remove local multiplayer etc.
Pokémon is something Vita never had, so I'm not counting out the possibility.
It would definitely have to be the former. The latter is kind of ridiculous due to the manual labor needed to cut down a game to run on the new system. It is counterproductive to what the Switch is suppose to be.
 
Anyone ha seen any reaction from
Japanese gamers ? From 2ch regarding main pokemon not yet on switch? i just want to know how they react, are they okay with it? Or is the same reaction as us?

I dont know but to be honest pokemon black 2 and white 2 was also released well into the lifespan of the 3ds so its nothing completely novel for them to do
 

noshten

Member
There is zero chance the next "Nintendo Handheld" isn't just a smaller, single-piece Switch. Seriously, after going to all this trouble to unify their development teams, a new dedicated handheld with its own separate software would be the dumbest gaming industry decision of all time.

Nope Dockless Switch for $150-200 in 2019. Single-piece makes it something different(aka no longer providing local multiplayer on the go) and I very much doubt Nintendo would want to do that.
 

ggx2ac

Member
I'm saying I expect something with the same processor as the Switch but unsure on what it would be, Either a different shaped Switch with identical software library, or a new platform they can make a lot of very simple ports to with a few tweaks to remove local multiplayer etc.
Pokémon is something Vita never had, so I'm not counting out the possibility.

If it was a 'handheld only' Switch then its OS will just be telling it that it is in handheld mode the whole time.

The point I am getting at with the Vita is that this isn't like the Wii/DS era since those were two completely different systems with different capabilities.

A Switch and a 'Nintendo handheld that is like the Switch but has exclusives' would cause cannibalism of sales, they are both systems similar in power but getting different software to each other.

We also know this from the 3DS and Wii U that there was less reasons to own both systems when their software libraries were converging that one had better exclusives (3DS) than the other, 3DS also received Wii U ports while the Wii U didn't get any 3DS games.

The only way a new handheld would appear that isn't a Switch 'handheld only' form is that it would have to be so different from the Switch with regards to how you play games that the Switch couldn't just do the same things as it in a revision.
 
Nope Dockless Switch for $150-200 in 2019. Single-piece makes it something different(aka no longer providing local multiplayer on the go) and I very much doubt Nintendo would want to do that.

You think that Nintendo can drop the price by 50% just by taking the plastic stand out of the box?
 
Really curious about the game's performance. The PSP game sold quite well iirc (at least the first one did).

How is the arcade game doing?

Not sure but the fighting genre seems to have collapsed. This will sell because its FF. I'm guessing 200k-300k. Of course overseas will eat this up.
 
I've yet to hear a compelling case for a new Nintendo handheld with exclusive software. Most of the arguments I see stem from a refusal to accept Switch as a legitimate piece of convergence hardware and a desire to cling to Nintendo's old business model; beyond that, I only see downsides and consumer confusion.
 
I've yet to hear a compelling case for a new Nintendo handheld with exclusive software. Most of the arguments I see stem from a refusal to accept Switch as a legitimate piece of convergence hardware and a desire to cling to Nintendo's old business model; beyond that, I only see downsides and consumer confusion.
I agree with this.
 

Vinnk

Member
Pokemon Stars not hitting Switch at this time has really hit some people hard.

Another dedicated handheld next year incompatible with Switch? Really?

I think we need to take a breath.
 

Minsc

Gold Member
Pokemon Stars not hitting Switch at this time has really hit some people hard.

Another dedicated handheld next year incompatible with Switch? Really?

I think we need to take a breath.

Next year Nintendo announces a new 540p handheld and discontinues the Switch and drops all Switch support. New handheld doesn't run any Switch games and launches with a Mario Kart 8DDD port that fails to sell well.

Sony releases the Vita 2 shortly after, which drives Nintendo to bankruptcy as it is massively popular in the West due to the enhanced Skyrim port they get as an exclusive (along with FFVIIR launching on it) and then Nintendo turns third party and releases their games on the Vita 2 instead, along with the PS5 and Steam.

See it's the best timeline.
 

maxcriden

Member
Aren't the parts in the dock fairly expensive? I think I remember reading that even though the dock is simple plastic, the chips they use in it aren't cheap.

Well for now, I believe the MSRP for the standalone dock is $80, so if we assume no profit on that (which I hope is not the case, for Nintendo's sake), which isn't half the cost of the system yet. Then if we say the HH only system has built in non-removable controllers (not necessarily likely, but possible) they can save money on some of the JC internals. Also, some parts of the actual system may become cheaper, and based on recent news some may become pricier.

Edit:

By 2019 manufacturing costs would have gone down substantially - even at the moment they aren't selling it at a loss

This too, though as caviar points out below they wouldn't be expected to drop quite so precipitously and as I mentioned above some parts may become pricier due to competition.

See also:

WSJ: Nintendo Battles Apple for Parts as Switch Demand Rises


Asia Nikkei: Apple, Amazon to back Foxconn on Toshiba chip bid
 
By 2019 manufacturing costs would have gone down substantially - even at the moment they aren't selling it at a loss
Not that substantially. What system has received a 33-50% price drop in its 3rd year unless it was majorly struggling? Right now AFAIK Nintendo is only making a small margin on the hardware. Costs around $260 to make and ship I think? Someone can correct me on that though.

Aren't the parts in the dock fairly expensive? I think I remember reading that even though the dock is simple plastic, the chips they use in it aren't cheap.
There are no chips in the dock. It's basically just a USB hub and HDMI out in a plastic box. I doubt it costs more than $20-30 to manufacture.
 

Zedark

Member
Not that substantially. What system has received a 33-50% price drop in its 3rd year unless it was majorly struggling?


There are no chips in the dock. It's basically just a USB hub and HDMI out in a plastic box. I doubt it costs more than $20-30 to manufacture.

There is some proprietary technology that tells the Switch to upclock, though, so it's not just a plastic box with an HDMI out. Though it probably isn't too expensive to manufacture regardless.
 

ggx2ac

Member
There is some proprietary technology that tells the Switch to upclock, though, so it's not just a plastic box with an HDMI out. Though it probably isn't too expensive to manufacture regardless.

And that it uses DisplayPort to do it since 'USB-C to HDMI alt mode' didn't come out until late last year.
 
Well, at least this year's Switch Pokemon game is a port of Pokken and not Pokemon Rumble U.
This too, though as caviar points out below they wouldn't be expected to drop quite so precipitously and as I mentioned above some parts may become pricier due to competition.

See also:

WSJ: Nintendo Battles Apple for Parts as Switch Demand Rises


Asia Nikkei: Apple, Amazon to back Foxconn on Toshiba chip bid
Yeah, the standard hybrid Switch will probably stay at $299 for quite a while. I can see a cut down portable-only Switch variant for $199 or so, maybe with only 8 or 16GB internal memory and no removable joycons and things.
 

KtSlime

Member
I'm saying I expect something with the same processor as the Switch but unsure on what it would be, Either a different shaped Switch with identical software library, or a new platform they can make a lot of very simple ports to with a few tweaks to remove local multiplayer etc.
Pokémon is something Vita never had, so I'm not counting out the possibility.

Why not sell a bunch of Switches so that the manufacturing costs decrease and they are able to reduce the price a bit by the time Pokémon comes? The prices between Switch and 3DS isn't even really all that much now. If they can get the price down to ¥25,000 by October 2019 it will be within spitting distance of the 3DS LL price (considering inflation) when XY were released
 
Pokemon Stars not hitting Switch at this time has really hit some people hard.

Another dedicated handheld next year incompatible with Switch? Really?

I think we need to take a breath.

Hah, it's been at the back of my mind since 2014 or so. It's not something I'd like to see, but could be down to whatever plan they think would give the best software& hardware profits overall, and I don't think cannibalisation would be a huge worry if the second line up was mostly 2 year old budget ports with bonuses like Wooly World.
 
Pokemon Stars or whatever not coming to Switch this year is just down to Game Freak not thinking there'll be enough of a Switch userbase to sell to out the gate. I'm pretty sure they want 5-10 million sales off the jump, and the lack of consoles out in the wild right now won't really achieve that.

I'm sure Ultra Sun/Moon won't crack 10 million worldwide, but I think GF are willing to accept that. It probably cost close to nothing to make.

Pokken DX will probably 1-2 million WW, which would put it at 2x SFV's lifetime sales.
 

Turrican3

Member
As far as first party support this is one of the strongest pushes Nintendo has given for a first year, the only system that beats it hands down is Wii.
Hmm, I'd like to know your reasoning about this... they seem more or less equal to me in terms of major titles, arguably with a decent advantage of the Switch.

Wii --> Wii Sports, Zelda TP and Mario Galaxy
Switch --> Zelda BotW, Mario Kart 8 DX, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey

Unless I'm forgetting something very obvious, that is (or I am misinterpreting your post)
 

noshten

Member
Not that substantially. What system has received a 33-50% price drop in its 3rd year unless it was majorly struggling?

It's not a matter of struggling it's a matter of expanding the user base or getting existing audience to purchase a second/third Switch and additional peripherals. By the 3rd year we could be looking at a potential audience of 40-60 million if plans of 20 million production is true. In order to continue the expansion they will aggressively discount Switch once prices for it's parts and manufacturing go down.

It wouldn't be surprising that by 2019 Nintendo are making a much larger percentage of profit from hardware.Currently the lowest price of the Switch is in Japan which is roughly equivalent to $260. I'd venture to guess that this is the lowest price Nintendo can provide at the moment without selling at a loss(shipping costs from factories to Japan are the lower compared to other territories).

The dock isn't exactly what is driving the costs up for the Switch but a Dockless Switch requires less packaging and it's a way for Nintendo to justify a lower price from a marketing/shipping/production standpoint.

As I've mentioned previously I expect external processing unit will be released at a certain point either 2018 Holiday or 2019 Holiday.
Whether it's the "Switch Cube" or "Deluxe Dock" who knows - but I think there is an audience for a dock which allows multiple Switches to be docked into a single TV, that automatically records gaming sessions, ups resolutions and provides other features that would mainly be focused towards multiplayer games/streaming.

Personally I think $250 is something we should expect for Holiday 2018, and $150 isn't out of the question by 2019. It's just a matter of Nintendo creating additional peripherals like themed JoyCons and External Processing Units, capitalizing on a larger potential audience provided via either a luxury Dock that servers as a "pro/scorpio" type upgrade or dockless Switch which serves as a way for existing households to purchase an additional Switch w/out the Dock for their kids at a lower cost.

I understand the business behind price drops, I just don't think $150 by 2019 is feasible. That's cheaper than a 3DS.

Switch having huge potential for peripherals and accessories definitely helps though.

It's a little more than $100 less than what it costs to buy a Switch at launch in Japan, I think you are being too conservative about how quickly costs go down for manufacturing/parts.
As you yourself mention Switch has huge potential for peripherals and accessories - unlike other consoles, so even a $10 profit off hardware still ensures Nintendo can monetize new owners in other ways that their competitors are unable to.
 
It's not a matter of struggling it's a matter of expanding the user base or getting existing audience to purchase a second/third Switch and additional peripherals. By the 3rd year we could be looking at a potential audience of 40-60 million if plans of 20 million production is true. In order to continue the expansion they will aggressively discount Switch once prices for it's parts and manufacturing go down.

It wouldn't be surprising that by 2019 Nintendo are making a much larger percentage of profit from hardware.Currently the lowest price of the Switch is in Japan which is roughly equivalent to $260. I'd venture to guess that this is the lowest price Nintendo can provide at the moment without selling at a loss(shipping costs from factories to Japan are the lower compared to other territories).

The dock isn't exactly what is driving the costs up for the Switch but a Dockless Switch requires less packaging and it's a way for Nintendo to justify a lower price from a marketing/shipping/production standpoint.
As I've mentioned previously I expect external processing unit will be released at a certain point either 2018 Holiday or 2019 Holiday.
Whether it's the "Switch Cube" or "Deluxe Dock" who knows - but I think there is an audience for a dock which allows multiple Switches to be docked into a single TV, that automatically records gaming sessions, ups resolutions and provides other features that would mainly be focused towards multiplayer games/streaming.

Personally I think $250 is something we should expect for Holiday 2018, and $150 isn't out of the question by 2019. It's just a matter of Nintendo creating additional peripherals like themed JoyCons and External Processing Units, capitalizing on a larger potential audience provided via either a luxury Dock that servers as a "pro/scorpio" type upgrade or dockless Switch which serves as a way for existing households to purchase an additional Switch w/out the Dock for their kids at a lower cost.

I understand the business behind price drops, I just don't think $150 by 2019 is feasible. That's cheaper than a 3DS.

Switch having huge potential for peripherals and accessories definitely helps though.
 

Fiendcode

Member
Hmm, I'd like to know your reasoning about this... they seem more or less equal to me in terms of major titles, arguably with a decent advantage of the Switch.

Wii --> Wii Sports, Zelda TP and Mario Galaxy
Switch --> Zelda BotW, Mario Kart 8 DX, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey

Unless I'm forgetting something very obvious, that is (or I am misinterpreting your post)
Wii had nearly a 1st party game a month it's first year. Wii Play, Prime 3, Paper Mario, Pokemon BR, Fire Emblem, Wario Ware, Mario Party, Mario Strikers and a bunch more. It's first 18 months also included Smash, Mario Kart and Wii Fit.
 
It wouldn't be surprising that by 2019 Nintendo are making a much larger percentage of profit from hardware.Currently the lowest price of the Switch is in Japan which is roughly equivalent to $260. I'd venture to guess that this is the lowest price Nintendo can provide at the moment without selling at a loss(shipping costs from factories to Japan are the lower compared to other territories).

~32k yen isn't equivalent to 260 usd
 
So looking at the remaining Switch releases so far for this year I see the 100k+ openings should be
Splatoon 2
Monster Hunter XX
Mario O
PokkenTournament DX?
Fire Emblem Warriors?
Skyrim?
Xenoblade Chronicles 2?
Million sellers by end of 2017 will be MK8D, Splatoon 2, and Zelda????
 
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