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Media Create Sales: Week 25, 2013 (Jun 17 - Jun 23)

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
May 31, 2011
34,803
1
645
Theres only two ways DQ11 will be on the PS4.

1)PS4 has built a large user base WW by the time it launches and jrpgs sell well in the West.

2) Sony moneyhats.

In fact it will probably only happen if both of those happen.



Because it is? DQ on next gen or a DQ on 3DS hmmmm I wonder which one is more attractive to fans.
PS4 / Vita release duh.

And only the PS4 version gets localized in the US/EU.

That said I really can't see this ever leaving the 3DS. It'd be insane.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Sep 8, 2011
16,870
7
0
Most fans won't give a shit about that. They'd buy the platform to play DQ.
3DS is already the home of Dragon Quest this generation in Japan. DQ XI is 99.999% likely to come to it unless they do another MMO.

Not to mention console gaming in Japan is basically dead. Even Wii only did average numbers. PS3's weakest region is by far and away Japan. Consoles don't matter there anymore. PS4 is a non-factor when it comes to Dragon Quest.
 

Acosta

Member
Jun 9, 2004
12,637
3
0
39
DQ X was "100% sure" to be on DS until SE dropped the bomb.

Never assume what SE is going to do next, DQ XI could be a mobile game and I would not even be surprised.

(If I had to bet money I would bet on 3DS though).
 

metalslimer

Member
Jun 9, 2012
26,528
0
0
WiiU dominate Japan
It has a much better shot than the other 2. I cannot believe after all these years anyone would have the notion dq fans gjve a shit about gral hics and are salivating over some next gen version can we please stop this craziness?
DQ X was "100% sure" to be on DS until SE dropped the bomb.

Never assume what SE is going to do next, DQ XI could be a mobile game and I would not even be surprised.
Terry's Wonderland (and the sequel it looks) and DQ7 tell us exactly where DQ11 will be. I would question Square Enix's sanity to throw away a surefire 3 million seller to mobile where it would take incredible numbers to make the same amount of revenue. Come on, DQ11 will be on3DS.Now whether there is a surprise crazy multiplat situation who knows.
 

Hero

Member
Jun 6, 2004
14,960
2
1,360
DQ X was "100% sure" to be on DS until SE dropped the bomb.

Never assume what SE is going to do next, DQ XI could be a mobile game and I would not even be surprised.

(If I had to bet money I would bet on 3DS though).
What? DQ9 was the one that was the shocker, everybody expected 10 on Wii.

Dragon Quest goes to systems that already have an install base, this is nothing new.

11 will be on 3DS.
 

watershed

Banned
Mar 12, 2011
19,593
0
0
DQ X was "100% sure" to be on DS until SE dropped the bomb.

Never assume what SE is going to do next, DQ XI could be a mobile game and I would not even be surprised.

(If I had to bet money I would bet on 3DS though).
Though it may seem strange I could imagine DQXI being a mobile game, especially with SE focusing more on mobile going forward. But if not, it will be on the 3ds.
 

Hsieh

Member
Jun 22, 2004
532
0
0
DQXI on PS4 over 3DS is pretty crazy. The PS3 only had one game selling more than a million copies in Japan, which was Final Fantasy XIII at 1.9 million copies. DQIX sold 4.4 million copies in Japan. There no way any game would have sold 4.4 million copies on PS3, the PS3 sales base just doesn't support the numbers that Dragon Quest is supposed to do.
 

metalslimer

Member
Jun 9, 2012
26,528
0
0
Wii couldn't do it wiiu had no chance to. PS4 won't either, but it will get more support and perform better than wiiu.
I never said any of them were likely, but at least that question made some kind of sense before seeing the complete lack of 3rd party support and incompetence in 1st party releases NIntendo brought to the table. The other two are just fan delusions.
 

Jamix012

Member
Jun 6, 2012
5,419
0
0
Wii couldn't do it wiiu had no chance to. PS4 won't either, but it will get more support and perform better than wiiu.
Depends what you mean by dominate. Only the PS2 really "dominated" the console war it was in and I still think Japan is up for grabs where the Wii U could win.
 

Spiegel

Member
Feb 20, 2007
7,957
0
970
Spain
DQ X was "100% sure" to be on DS until SE dropped the bomb.

Never assume what SE is going to do next, DQ XI could be a mobile game and I would not even be surprised.

(If I had to bet money I would bet on 3DS though).
DQX wasn't even speculated because it was announced months before DQIX was released.

At that point Wii was a good candidate system (huge sales, DQ spinoff released and DS would be on its way out when the game finished development). + the MMORPG thing not known at that time.

DQXI will be a 3DS game.
 

AniHawk

Member
Jun 7, 2004
74,679
3
1,595
Well that's the thing. 5.5m is pretty mediocre. N64 was around the same ballpark and no one calls it a success there, and the N64 had a few million sellers to boot. I guess it did pretty well until it was killed off, but the end result remains mediocre at best.
the n64 came out two years later and lasted a couple years longer. the saturn could have maybe hit 8-9m if the gen played out for the machine.
 

Acosta

Member
Jun 9, 2004
12,637
3
0
39
DQX wasn't even speculated because it was announced months before DQIX was released.

At that point Wii was a good candidate system (huge sales, DQ spinoff released and DS would be on its way out when the game finished development). + the MMORPG thing not known at that time.

DQXI will be a 3DS game.
I don't remember Wii being a candidate to be honest. The thing was that DQ always went to the "most succesful" system and once IX broke the handheld barrier, the logical thing was to expect DQ X for it too, for me at least. Instead of that we got an early announcement and in form of MMO.

I'll take your word on it though. However, about the prediction, I'll adopt the wait and see position for DQ. I was surprised with DQ IX and X, I won't be for XI.
 

StreetsAhead

Member
Jun 13, 2011
12,626
0
0
Poor, poor WiiU.

I really don't think Pikmin 3, Wonderful 101, Wii Fit U, Wii Party U, or Wind Waker are going to pull WiiU out of the slump it's in. Mario in December seems a bit late.

I guess momentum is something you need to build. If Nintendo can keep a consistent flow of games (as in, 1st party games) then they might be able to slowly build back to respectable numbers. I think Q1 2014 is where our eyes should be. That's a potential quarter to lose any and all of the holiday momentum.

With Mario Kart in the spring (meaning June probably), I foresee another drought in the early half of 2014. Nintendo needs a Rareware to fill those voids.
Nintendo would be crazy not to have Mario Kart out in March, and April at the latest. It needs to be out for Golden Week at the absolute minimum.

We already have a good idea of what 2014's software from Nintendo will look like, though.

1. Mario Kart 8
2. Bayonetta 2
3. SMT X FE
4. Yarn Yoshi
5. Art Academy U
6. Monolith Soft's "X"
7. Smash Bros. for Wii U
8. Mario & Sonic @ The Sochi Winter Olympic Games (Currently TBA)]
9. Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze (Currently TBA)

Add in one or two of a Pokemon Gen 6 game, Wii Sports U, random surprise, or LoZ and that's pretty much going to be it, I reckon.

If they can have Donkey Kong for Feb, Mario & Sonic for March, & MK8 for April they might avoid a complete slump during early next year, depending on how active PS4 is.
 

StreetsAhead

Member
Jun 13, 2011
12,626
0
0
I think Mario and Sonic is a lock for this year, and Donkey Kong is very likely as well.
We only have what Nintendo has said and right now they're TBA, listed with the 2014 titles on their site.

Until they say otherwise, all I am expecting is:

July: Pikmin, Lego, NSLU
August: TW101
September: WWHD
October: Wii Party
November: Wii Fit, Rayman (if they're still publishing it in JP)
December: Super Mario 3D World
 
Jan 11, 2013
498
0
390
For some reason I thought the Wii U sales would at least go up a little bit after the E3 showing.

Oh well, guess we just have to wait for Pikmin 3 to see if it picks up any steam, but thats still 3-4 weeks out.
 

Sammy Samusu

Member
Aug 3, 2009
19,285
1
0
Moga Village
I don't remember Wii being a candidate to be honest. The thing was that DQ always went to the "most succesful" system and once IX broke the handheld barrier, the logical thing was to expect DQ X for it too, for me at least. Instead of that we got an early announcement and in form of MMO.

I'll take your word on it though. However, about the prediction, I'll adopt the wait and see position for DQ. I was surprised with DQ IX and X, I won't be for XI.
2008: http://www.ign.com/articles/2008/12/10/dragon-quest-10-announced-for-wii
 

DaBoss

Member
Dec 5, 2012
20,948
0
0
Toronto
Mon-Hun was a Japan series until Mon-Hun 3 U on Wii U and 3DS made its way to EU/US. SE can try their hand with a DQ as well.
Late to this discussion, but Mon-Hun is still a Japan series and many older MH games came their way to the west (and the most successful one was MHTri on the Wii).
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
Vita sub-6K weeks:

Code:
22	2012-05-07	5,849
23	2012-05-14	5,879
47	2012-10-29	5,368
48	2012-11-05	4,263

Wii U sub-6K weeks:

Code:
25	2013-05-20	5,536
26	2013-05-27	5,669
27	2013-06-03	4,549
28	2013-06-10	5,031
29	2013-06-17	4,236
So essentially the Wii U has had longer stretches below 6K and plumbed lower depths much earlier.

Just as it wasn't (just) a software problem for PSV, I really can't see how people can still claim there isn't something intrinsically flawed in the product conception for the Wii U.

Looking at that, I could even see Pikmin not necessarily pushing the system much above 20K.

For a somewhat analogous situation, P4G managed to push the PSV above 30K during release week in the middle of the year, but there's a caveat in that the PSV actually was doing slightly better with ~6K weeks and a 12K week before P4G's release week, perhaps in anticipation of the game.

The week prior to Pikmin 3 actually might be a good barometer of any hardware effect of the game given the above.
 

DaBoss

Member
Dec 5, 2012
20,948
0
0
Toronto
It takes some sort of special magic to make the Wii U's and Vita's lowest weeks to have the same numeric digits.

For a somewhat analogous situation, P4G managed to push the PSV above 30K during release week in the middle of the year, but there's a caveat in that the PSV actually was doing slightly better with ~6K weeks and a 12K week before P4G's release week, perhaps in anticipation of the game.
A Gundam game was released the week prior to P4G and debuted at ~40K. The week prior to that the Vita was ~7.5K.

Regardless, I still think the Wii U would only be around ~15K-18K, but I'm reading that New Super Luigi U and some new controller bundle with NintendoLand is going to release too. I wonder if all of that with Pikmin 3 can push it above 20K.
 
So essentially the Wii U has had longer stretches below 6K and plumbed lower depths much earlier.

Just as it wasn't (just) a software problem for PSV, I really can't see how people can still claim there isn't something intrinsically flawed in the product conception for the Wii U.
As a note since one of my posts a few months ago may have been confusing, I didn't mean that there weren't *any* problems with the base concept of the hardware/platform, just that I feel the baseline for the system could be a lot higher with proper software before the core elements of the system itself limit its sales growth.

What that top baseline is I don't know, but I feel it's definitely higher than like... 5-10K if they had new attractive software every 2-3 weeks.
 

zroid

Banned
Nov 7, 2011
76,132
1
0
Just as it wasn't (just) a software problem for PSV, I really can't see how people can still claim there isn't something intrinsically flawed in the product conception for the Wii U.
It still surprises me because taken at face value at least, you'd think the Wii U's chief gimmick is a natural fit for Japan. I think many people assumed this in the beginning.
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
A Gundam game was released the week prior to P4G and debuted at ~40K. The week prior to that the Vita was ~7.5K.

Regardless, I still think the Wii U would only be around ~15K-18K, but I'm reading that New Super Luigi U and some new controller bundle with NintendoLand is going to release too. I wonder if all of that with Pikmin 3 can push it above 20K.
Ah, missed the Gundam game, I guess it will just be the Pikmin week worth the watch for now.

(Also was using Famitsu so was around 6.5K.)
As a note since one of my posts a few months ago may have been confusing, I didn't mean that there weren't *any* problems with the base concept of the hardware/platform, just that I feel the baseline for the system could be a lot higher with proper software before the core elements of the system itself limit its sales growth.

What that top baseline is I don't know, but I feel it's definitely higher than like... 5-10K if they had new attractive software every 2-3 weeks.
While I agree the baseline sales would be higher with software, essentially you have the example the PSV gives; wherein a stead stream of software and a large price drop, as well as a few major titles, provided an initial honeymoon before the system ended up at the 10K mark - better than before, but not a barnstormer. (To those that will feel the need to point it out: yes I'm aware the Vita does not have Mario.) But it's potential sales are really capped by the product in itself not being suited to the market and/or more suitable products being on the market.

Although, this actually relates more to other markets for PSV, since as a handheld it is more suited to Japan. It's still a handheld that focused too much on the wrong things in its conception - people do not want a "premium handheld". By now I really don't see why they haven't ditched the OLED screen for example.

I can foresee with a steady stream of software a baseline hovering more in the teens for Wii U; but they hung an albatross around their neck in an expensive feature/gimmick that no one really cares about.
 
It still surprises me because taken at face value at least, you'd think the Wii U's chief gimmick is a natural fit for Japan. I think many people assumed this in the beginning.
I think one of the core problems both the Wii U and Vita face is that they fall in the void between "This platform supports ~PS2 level visuals." and "This platform supports the best possible console graphics."

With the PS2, GameCube, 3DS, PSP, Wii, and majority of higher production value Japanese iOS games, we see developers hitting a level of graphics honestly not that different than the PS2. Even on the PS3, it wasn't uncommon to see some games look like polished up PS2 titles (see things like most Tales games, niche JRPGs, Musou titles, and other similar games). And in general, despite the passage of time, the average Japanese consumer seems fine with this level of 3D and the various types of gameplay that level of hardware can handle.

Now that the most popular handheld has reached that bar, basically anything that is more powerful than that, but is not the absolute most powerful thing in the room, seems to have fallen into a void where it doesn't really have a point in life. With the PS3 (and likely soon the PS4), you can get the highest end console games produced by Japanese developers that are ultimately subsidized by notable Western sales, and thus are willing to pursue that level of visuals/production values/cost. With the 3DS however, you can play just about absolutely everything else (or at least games that are notably similar) that anyone who isn't pursuing the absolute top end is making, and this includes games from extremely high profile franchises like Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Pokemon, or Mario.

Now the Wii U does have Nintendo's first party games, which generally carry weight, but I'm not sure it helps that you can buy 3DS games (Mario 3D Land, NSMB 2, Mario Kart 7, SSB 3DS) that are very similar to the Wii U's high profile games (Mario 3D World, NSMB U, Mario Kart 8, SSB Wii U) that may serve as perfectly suitable replacements for many consumers.

Edit:

While I agree the baseline sales would be higher with software, essentially you have the example the PSV gives; wherein a stead stream of software and a large price drop, as well as a few major titles, provided an initial honeymoon before the system ended up at the 10K mark - better than before, but not a barnstormer. (To those that will feel the need to point it out: yes I'm aware the Vita does not have Mario.) But it's potential sales are really capped by the product in itself not being suited to the market and/or more suitable products being on the market.

Although, this actually relates more to other markets for PSV, since as a handheld it is more suited to Japan. It's still a handheld that focused too much on the wrong things in its conception - people do not want a "premium handheld". By now I really don't see why they haven't ditched the OLED screen for example.

I can foresee with a steady stream of software a baseline hovering more in the teens for Wii U; but they hung an albatross around their neck in an expensive feature/gimmick that no one really cares about.
Reading over this I think we agree on a core level here. There isn't much interest in a "premium, but not the most premium" device.
 

Soriku

Junior Member
Aug 22, 2012
15,519
0
455
Well let's see what is possible and probable for the PS4 in 2014

FF15 certainly is possible for late 2014 and may be the holiday title.
KH3 is definitely not coming out 2014. 2015 seems like it would be the better time
Tales Next is probably heading to PS4, but the tales of 2014 could be cross gen or PS4 exclusive
Yakuza 6 is probably headed for PS4 since 5 was the last one on PS3
Resident Evil probably won't be around for a long time
Metal Gear seems like it could also be 2014 and that would be a big deal although somewhat dampered by the PS3 version
GT6 is probably also 2014 for PS4
Namco said they had no next gen plans and are focusing on PS3. The next console mainline will likely be PS3 exclusive...then I guess they'll move to PS4 afterwards.
 

L Thammy

Member
Nov 4, 2012
15,055
2
0
So essentially the Wii U has had longer stretches below 6K and plumbed lower depths much earlier.

Just as it wasn't (just) a software problem for PSV, I really can't see how people can still claim there isn't something intrinsically flawed in the product conception for the Wii U.

Looking at that, I could even see Pikmin not necessarily pushing the system much above 20K.

For a somewhat analogous situation, P4G managed to push the PSV above 30K during release week in the middle of the year, but there's a caveat in that the PSV actually was doing slightly better with ~6K weeks and a 12K week before P4G's release week, perhaps in anticipation of the game.

The week prior to Pikmin 3 actually might be a good barometer of any hardware effect of the game given the above.
Vita had more software at the same point, I'm pretty sure. Nothing super impressive, Gravity Rush and Tales and all that, but it was still there.

That said, I wonder if the less impressive power of the Wii U is more of an issue than it was for the Wii due to the era of smartphones.
 

Acosta

Member
Jun 9, 2004
12,637
3
0
39
I wouldn't expect Tales on PS4 until 2015/2016 when games like Final Fantasy XV have already brought the audience over.
I could see Namco Bandai testing waters with something that's not Tales, like Eternal Sonata last gen.

But yes, I'm sure they won't rush for a Tales in PS4.
 

Napalm_Frank

Member
Jun 27, 2011
22,873
1
575
Finland
Wow. 130K for TLoU? That seems awfully good...

I wonder if that bodes well for sales in the west...700+K NPD?
I can almost imagine some higher ups at Sony being like ''ok ok you can do a new IP for PS3 with AAA values but you will form another team to do UC3/4 for us'' to prevent talent leak/Bungie situation and later realizing ''holy shit PLEASE let them make whatever they want!''

I'd love to see ND became a studio that does multiple new AAA IPs next generation in addition to UC4 and show such a model can be successful. If I were Sony I'd let them do absolutely whatever they want and throw a good marketing budget at it. Would also be interesting from a fan standpoint to never know what kind of game they will do next even if there are many similarities between UC and TLOU.
 
Oct 30, 2011
5,358
1,055
745
I can almost imagine some higher ups at Sony being like ''ok ok you can do a new IP for PS3 with AAA values but you will form another team to do UC3/4 for us'' to prevent talent leak/Bungie situation and later realizing ''holy shit PLEASE let them make whatever they want!''

I'd love to see ND became a studio that does multiple new AAA IPs next generation in addition to UC4 and show such a model can be successful. If I were Sony I'd let them do absolutely whatever they want and throw a good marketing budget at it. Would also be interesting from a fan standpoint to never know what kind of game they will do next even if there are many similarities between UC and TLOU.
I'd love Naughty Dog to form 3 teams, each project taking 3 years to develop, and have a Naughty Dog game release every single year (similar to Pixar)