Media Create Sales: Week 41, 2011 (Oct 10 - Oct 16)

Jan 21, 2008
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Dengeki Sales, Oct 10 - Oct 16, 2011 (week 42)

01. (__) [PS3] Ace Combat: Assault Horizon (Bandai Namco) - 137,588 / 137,588 [ST: ~65% => 212,000]
02. (__) [WII] Just Dance Wii (Nintendo) - 89,767 / 89,767 [ST: ~70% => 128,000]
03. (01) [PS3] Pro Evolution Soccer 2012 (Konami) - 63,672 / 346,321 (-77%)
04. (02) [PSP] AKB1/48: Idol to Guam de Koishitara... (Bandai Namco) - 36,747 / 275,371 (-85%)
05. (__) [360] Forza Motorsport 4 (Microsoft Game Studios) - 20,250 / 20,250
06. (__) [PSP] Class of Heroes Final: Shinnyuusei wa Ohime-sama! (Acquire) - 18,413 / 18,413
07. (__) [360] Ace Combat: Assault Horizon (Bandai Namco) - 18,106 / 18,106
08. (__) [PS3] Dead Rising 2: Off the Record (Capcom) - 17,871 / 17,871
09. (11) [WII] Rhythm Heaven (Nintendo) - 13,641 / 521,609 (+29%)
10. (09) [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 12,713 / 2,633,404 (+17%)
11. (07) [WII] Dragon Quest 25th Anniversary: Famicom & Super Famicom Dragon Quest I-II-III (Square Enix) - 12,256 / 363,986 (-16%)
12. (04) [PS3] Dynasty Warriors 7: Xtreme Legends (Koei Tecmo) - 10,217 / 111,378 (-50%)
13. (05) [PS3] Dark Souls (From Software) - 9,767 / 344,559 (-48%)
14. (10) [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 [PSP the Best] (Capcom) - 8,978 / 47,444 (-15%)
15. (12) [NDS] Kirby Mass Attack (Nintendo) - 8,861 / 267,029 (+8%)
16. (14) [PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 6 (Konami) - 8,450 / 91,890 (+6%)
17. (13) [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D (Nintendo) - 7,759 / 418,719 (-5%)
18. (06) [PSP] The Legend of Heroes: Ao no Kiseki (Nihon Falcom) - 7,287 / 155,340 (-56%)
19. (__) [PSP] Clock Zero: Shuuen no Ichibyou Portable (Idea Factory) - 7,225 / 7,225
20. (03) [PS3] F1 2011 (Codemasters) - 7,213 / 28,520 (-66%)

*ST: Sell-through => estimated copies shipped.


Other software (first week / LTD):
2006-03-23 [PS2] Ace Combat Zero: The Belkan War [all prices] (Namco) - 124,000 / 311,000
2010-08-26 [PSP] Ace Combat X2: Joint Assault (Bandai Namco) - 62,000 / 152,000


http://news.dengeki.com/elem/000/000/418/418408/
http://megalodon.jp/2011-1022-0848-47/news.dengeki.com/soft/ranking/ranking.html

Week 41: 10-03~10-09
 
Apr 4, 2010
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Kenka said:
Can we start taking bets for the launch weeks of the upcoming blockbusters ?


I personally would go with :

Monster Hunter 3G : 512'000
Super Mario 3D Land : 657'000
TLoZ : Skyward Sword : 346'000
Mario Kart 7 : 414'000
Love Plus + : 116'000
Monster Hunter first week will be higher than 3D land. Heck I'd say MK7 will have a higher first week than 3D land. I know the game has a lot of 2D mario influence, but it's still a 3D one, and those have significantly less appeal, I honestly doubt it will sell nearly as much in its first week as what you're expecting. (I'll be glad to eat crow if it happens though).
 
Jan 16, 2007
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The Abominable Snowman said:
The #20 spot on the top 20 happens to be a 3DS game. Lets say that 20-40 all sold the same amount, ~7.2K, and that all previous 3DS owners bought no new titles this past week. With 5 entries on the top 40, that would still put the 3DS software sales at 36K. A 20K gap from hardware sales.

If the used market is THAT strong, it's a real deadly problem for the 3DS

Sales outside the top 40 are minuscule enough to not warrant to think that they would fill that 20K gap, even with the impossible 'best-case' scenario I just painted.
The used market in Japan is that strong. It's the very reason why big RPGs are so front-loaded: people beat the game, trade it in, and others are given the option to save ¥1,000. New games are extremely expensive in Japan (seemingly remaining around RRP for months in many cases), and used games are practically always in better shape than the new games sold in EB/Gamestop in the U.S.

So yeah, I believe that used sales could be filling the gap somewhat.
 

Dash Kappei

Not actually that important
Apr 8, 2005
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Kenka said:
Can we start taking bets for the launch weeks of the upcoming blockbusters ?


I personally would go with :

Monster Hunter 3G : 512'000
Super Mario 3D Land : 657'000
TLoZ : Skyward Sword : 346'000
Mario Kart 7 : 414'000
Love Plus + : 116'000
No way Mario will be that high.
 
Jan 20, 2010
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Dash Kappei said:
No way Mario will be that high.
A lot will depend on how successful Nintendo is at luring in 2D Mario fans.

For comparison here are what the first week sales were like for the Galaxy and NSMB games.

NSMB DS: 865,024
NSMB Wii: 936,734
SM Galaxy: 256,341
SM Galaxy 2: 337,569
 
May 3, 2007
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Kenka said:
Can we start taking bets for the launch weeks of the upcoming blockbusters ?


I personally would go with :

Monster Hunter 3G : 512'000 - far too low
Super Mario 3D Land : 657'000 - too high unfortunately
TLoZ : Skyward Sword : 346'000 - too low
Mario Kart 7 : 414'000 - maybe a little low
Love Plus + : 116'000 - too low
:)
 
Jan 21, 2008
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Are we going to predict for this week?

[PSP] Final Fantasy Type-0 <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥7.770)
[WII] Kirby's Return to Dream Land <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥5.800)

[PS3] Disgaea 4: Fuuka & Desco-hen Hajime Mashita # <RPG> (Nippon Ichi Software) (¥4.179)
[PS3] The Idolmaster 2 # <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥7.980)
[PSP] Senritsu no Stratus <ADV> (Konami) (¥5.980)
[PSP] Ro-Kyu-Bu! # <SPT> (Kadokawa Games) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Joker no Kuni no Alice # <ADV> (QuinRose) (¥5.985)

[PSP] Arcana Famiglia: La Storia Della Arcana Famiglia # <ADV> (Comfort) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Tanteibu: The Detective Club - Haibu to Kaiga to Bakudan to # <ADV> (Asgard) (¥3.654)
[PSP] Ragnarok: Hikari to Yami no Koujo # <RPG> (GungHo Online Entertainment) (¥5.985)
[360] MuvLuv: Twin Pack <ADV> (5pb.) (¥16.590)
[PSP] R-15 Portable # <ADV> (Kadokawa Games) (¥6.090)
[360] MuvLuv Alternative <ADV> (5pb.) (¥7.140)
[3DS] Yuugen Gaisha Brave Company <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥5.040)
[PS3] Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine <SLG> (CyberFront) (¥7.140)
[PSP] NBA 2K12 <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥5.040)
[PSP] Hana to Otome ni Shukufuku o: Shunpuu no Okurimono Portable # <ADV> (Asgard) (¥6.090)
[360] Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine <SLG> (CyberFront) (¥7.140)
[360] Kinect Sports Season 2 <SPT> (Microsoft) (¥5.880)
[360] Dance Central 2 <HOB> (Microsoft Game Studios) (¥5.880)
[NDS] Quiz Present Variety Q-Sama!! DS: Pressure Study x Atama Gai Kunaru Drill SP <TBL> (Kamui) (¥5.040)
[3DS] Mameshiba <ETC> (Nippon) (¥5.040)
[360] MuvLuv <ADV> (5pb.) (¥7.140)
 
Jan 20, 2010
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Alrus said:
You're overselling Love Plus, a 100k first week is pretty reasonable, even a bit too high imo.
Hard to know how that will do.

On the one hand a small content upgrade of the first Love Plus sold 119,187 in its first week. On the other hand it's starting again on a new system.

On the other-other hand there's a hardware bundle. And I imagine Love Plus caters to a small but super dedicated audience.
 
Feb 20, 2007
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AdventureRacing said:
Mario is the first one out and won't benefit from the increased install base like the other games will. I'd say it will have pretty good legs as the 3DS will be selling like hot cakes pretty much after mario's release.
Yeah, seeing it achieve FFX like number (a.k.a. ~2.4M when it is all said and done) would be a success imho. But predicting software on the long run on 3DS is still a bit of a risky task, I would not enter those uncharted territories.
Alrus said:
Monster Hunter first week will be higher than 3D land. Heck I'd say MK7 will have a higher first week than 3D land. I know the game has a lot of 2D mario influence, but it's still a 3D one, and those have significantly less appeal, I honestly doubt it will sell nearly as much in its first week as what you're expecting. (I'll be glad to eat crow if it happens though).
See, that's exactly the nice thing about the times we are currently living. So many exciting unknown parameters will make the holiday season an explosive one on GAF.

BurntMeet said:
My predictions

MH3G: OVER 9000!
x65
SM3DL: 460,000
TLoZSS: 522,552
MK7: 444,444
LP+: 142,000

:3
LoZ is a tad too high me think. I pretty much agree with the rest. Betting on the second week would be even a more interesting objective. I can't wait to see if we can see Donkey Konga/Animal Crossing/Mario Kart DS types of sales curves.
 
Apr 18, 2005
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BKK said:
Is it likely they'll expect people to pay for the same roms again that they already bought on Wii?
There's no account system and it's a different environment (handheld vs. console) so definitely. Wii U may have a chance at doing a one-time transfer from Wii, but it's probably more likely not there, too. Still better chance than the Wii VC purchases transferring to 3DS, though.
 

BKK

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Jan 20, 2010
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donny2112 said:
There's no account system and it's a different environment (handheld vs. console) so definitely. Wii U may have a chance at doing a one-time transfer from Wii, but it's probably more likely not there, too. Still better chance than the Wii VC purchases transferring to 3DS, though.
Or they could avoid the issue altogether by only selling handheld titles on 3DS.

Does 3DS have the same issue as Wii where content is tied to hardware instead of an account?
 
Jan 16, 2007
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BurntPork said:
My predictions

MH3G: 585,000
SM3DL: 460,000
TLoZSS: 522,552
MK7: 444,444
LP+: 142,000

:3
Hmm... I think you're probably a little off.

MH3G will open much higher.
SM3DL will open a bit higher.
Zelda will open much lower.
Mario Kart 7 will open a bit higher.
LovePlus will open quite a bit lower.

saichi said:
I'll eat the pair of socks I'm wearing now if SM3DL has a bigger first week than MK7...
Mario Kart has traditionally opened extremely low... possibly around 5% of total lifetime sales. I think it'll open much higher than usual this time, but if history tells us anything, it's that during the first week, mainline Mario platformers generally ship more than Mario Kart.

-----

EDIT: Some analysis after digging through Garaph.


Zelda

The best first week for a Zelda game appears to be Spirit Tracks, at 321,000 units… with Phantom Hourglass and The Wind Waker both trailing at 288,000 a piece. It seems that original Zelda titles tend to sell through about 1/3 (give or take) of their total sales during the first week.


Mario platformers

Original Mario platformers are seemingly completely unpredictable, but there is a well-documented division between 2D and 3D Marios. 3D Marios tend to approach a million (SMG2 is so close), whereas the New Super Mario Bros. series has sold through a combined total of more than 10.4 million.

SM3DL is not really a traditional 3D Mario, nor is it a 2D Mario. But if it were to be presented with the same circumstances as NSMB was (incredibly healthy platform with continued successes/strikes of luck), I think it could still produce impressive sales. 3DS is a different situation. The audience seems to be mixed. Despite likely healthy 3DS sales into mid-next year, I don't think the situation is right enough for SML3DL to show quite as impressive legs as a Mario platformer. But if the hardware is available to purchase, I think it will quickly dwarf Galaxy's sales, settling down at a couple of million before dropping out of the top 30.


Mario Kart

LTD sales for Mario Kart DS and Wii are both well above 3 million each. MKDS sits at 3.8m, with MKWii continuing to climb, currently at 3.2m. Mario Kart DS opened at 224,000 (5.9% of total sales) just over 1 year after the DS' launch, and continued to chart almost 5 years after release: its last entry was #29 (3,867 units) in May of this year. Mario Kart Wii opened at 608,000 (18.9% of total sales) in April 2008, and charted this week at 27 (possibly > 5,000 units).

Around the time Mario Kart Wii launched, Mario Kart DS experienced a temporary sales boost for about two months. Mario Kart DS LTD sales were 2.94 million at this time, which means it has sold more than 837,000 after its release. I imagine a similar situation will happen with Mario Kart 7 and Mario Kart Wii.
 
Jan 20, 2010
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Michan said:
Mario Kart has traditionally opened extremely low... possibly around 5% of total lifetime sales. I think it'll open much higher than usual this time, but if history tells us anything, it's that during the first week, mainline Mario platformers generally ship more than Mario Kart.
Depends on what sort of mainline Mario we're talking about.

 
Jan 16, 2007
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Erethian said:
Depends on what sort of mainline Mario we're talking about.

Sorry, I was referring to NSMB vs. MKDS and NSMBWii vs. MKWii. I think SM3DL is closer to NSMB than Galaxy in how it is pitched to the consumer: there is no steep learning curve and it could easily be considered, like NSMB, to be an "expanded audience" title. Not to mention that Nintendo is clearly pushing the 2D platforming aspect in its commercials.

 
Jun 26, 2006
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In a Dream
We should take into account the pent up demand for some of these titles. There is 2million people itching for a high profile game, if we assume. So earlier holiday titles such as Mario 3D Land might be comparable to other franchise starts, ignoring the lower userbase.
 
Apr 8, 2010
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Michan said:
Mario Kart has traditionally opened extremely low... possibly around 5% of total lifetime sales. I think it'll open much higher than usual this time, but if history tells us anything, it's that during the first week, mainline Mario platformers generally ship more than Mario Kart.
I expect SM3DL opens a little better than SMG2 but not too much... so maybe close to 400K. MK Wii opened pretty big with 600K and I expect MK7 opens close to that.

I got my socks marked so I know which pair I'll need to eat if I'm wrong. :)
 
Jan 20, 2010
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saichi said:
I expect SM3DL opens a little better than SMG2 but not too much... so maybe close to 400K. MK Wii opened pretty big with 600K and I expect MK7 opens close to that.

I got my socks marked so I know which pair I'll need to eat if I'm wrong. :)
I could see a situation where they debut at about the same, so one slightly edges out the other. Don't see SM3DL getting up there with NSMB numbers, though.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
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Road said:
Dengeki Sales, Oct 10 - Oct 16, 2011 (week 42)

01. (__) [PS3] Ace Combat: Assault Horizon (Bandai Namco) - 137,588 / 137,588 [ST: ~65% => 212,000]
Namco almost got the perfect shipment. It won't need a second.

Now, where is Kurosaki?
 
May 12, 2011
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My predictions weren't exactly serious...

The thing is, Mario Kart Wii's strong opening might have been tied to the Wii's higher install base. I'm not confident that 3DS can replicate that this holiday. In fact, I'd say that no 3DS game can do much better than 450-550k this holiday, and that's probably quite optimistic. I don't think even a mainline Pokemon would be able to open at more than 600k.
 
Aug 4, 2005
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walking fiend said:
TOOO low for MK7. I wouldn't be surprised if it opens at 800k.
Yeah, like the 10 million Zelda SS...

Cut the "I wouldn't be surprised if..." crap and throw a number! You can always make damage control like BurntPork did above me ;P

It'd be nice if we made predictions about the important things before November (besides the Prediction League week by week). We could predict:

Super Mario Land 3D FW/LTD (Until January)
Mario Kart 7 FW/LTD
Monster Hunter Tri G FW/LTD
Inazuma Eleven Go FW/LTD
Love Plus + FW/LTD
The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword FW/LTD
3DS Highest Week/LTD (for November & December)
PS Vita FW/LTD (December)

And more things I can't remember now...

PS: Even if Kurosaki doesn't come back I'm predicting 615.000 FW for FF Type-0. Ale.
 
May 3, 2007
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Orgen said:
Yeah, like the 10 million Zelda SS...

Cut the "I wouldn't be surprised if..." crap and throw a number! You can always make damage control like BurntPork did above me ;P

It'd be nice if we made predictions about the important things before November (besides the Prediction League week by week). We could predict:

Super Mario Land 3D FW/LTD (Until January)
Mario Kart 7 FW/LTD
Monster Hunter Tri G FW/LTD
Inazuma Eleven Go FW/LTD
Love Plus + FW/LTD
The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword FW/LTD
3DS Highest Week/LTD (for November & December)
PS Vita FW/LTD (December)

And more things I can't remember now...

PS: Even if Kurosaki doesn't come back I'm predicting 615.000 FW for FF Type-0. Ale.
i'm assuming you mean before january and not including january

Super Mario Land 3D FW/LTD - 310k / 800k
Mario Kart 7 FW/LTD - 490k / 850k
Monster Hunter Tri G FW/LTD 700k / 1.1m
Inazuma Eleven Go FW/LTD 300k / 480k
Love Plus + FW/LTD 150k / 190k
The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword FW/LTD 480k / 680k
3DS Highest Week/LTD (for November & December) 580k / 4.3m
PS Vita FW/LTD (December) - fuck knows depends on stock
 
Aug 4, 2005
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frankie_baby said:
i'm assuming you mean before january and not including january

Super Mario Land 3D FW/LTD - 310k / 800k
Mario Kart 7 FW/LTD - 490k / 850k
Monster Hunter Tri G FW/LTD 700k / 1.1m
Inazuma Eleven Go FW/LTD 300k / 480k
Love Plus + FW/LTD 150k / 190k
The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword FW/LTD 480k / 680k
3DS Highest Week/LTD (for November & December) 580k / 4.3m
PS Vita FW/LTD (December) - fuck knows depends on stock
Yep. But January should have two strong SW & HW weeks too, so we could add all January to the predictions.

Good numbers all around but with the 3DS LTD I was thinking about the amount sold in November & December (so your number should be 2.2 million?)

And FF Type-0 should be a million seller... only a dissapointing FW (like <400.000) or a Xillia drop (like 90%) could prevent it (or both things, yeah).
 
May 3, 2007
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Orgen said:
Yep. But January should have two strong SW & HW weeks too, so we could add all January to the predictions.

Good numbers all around but with the 3DS LTD I was thinking about the amount sold in November & December (so your number should be 2.2 million?)

And FF Type-0 should be a million seller... only a dissapointing FW (like <400.000) or a Xillia drop (like 90%) could prevent it (or both things, yeah).

thinking about it my 3ds number is too low, there's 2 more weeks of october so it should be getting close to 2.3m by the end of this month and i'd say at least 2.4m for nov/dec so about 4.7 by the end of the year

oh and seriously there's no way type 0 will sell a million, 800k would be optomistic
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Predictions, uh?

Super Mario 3D Land
Prediction 380-420k
Why This Mario is another step towards the 2Dsation of the 3D series.
It already happened with the passage from Galaxy to Galaxy 2, and...


[WII] Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo) - 256.341 / 1.005.649 / 25,49% 01/11/07

[WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) - 337.569 / 956.853 / 35,28% 27/05/10

It has worked, since the FW has been MUCH better, and it's near SMG LTD even if it's been released 2 years and half later.
It's obvious that when SMG2 was out, Wii's install base was much larger, but it's not automatic that a larger install base make a sequel sell better than its prequel...
So, I think SM3DLand will have even a better debut than SMG2, because it's more 2Desque, it's on a console with lots of momentum, and it's launched with a new color, and this will help.

New Love Plus
Prediction 100-120k
Why


[NDS] Love Plus (Konami) - 47.854 / 244.730 / 19,55% 03/09/09
[NDS] Love Plus+ (Konami) 119.187 / 188.541 / 63,21% 24/06/10

The first has been a slow burner, the expansion had a much better debut, but much shorter legs ( expected, since it was an expansion).
Since 3DS has a low install base, I don't think we'll see an increase in the FW...so I think 100-120k are what to expect.

Monster Hunter 3G
Prediction 700-850k
Why The original on Wii

[WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 582.548 / 1.070.743 / 54,41% 01/08/09

I think it will debut better because it's on a console with momentum, it's on a PORTABLE console, so the main selling point of the series (local coop) is there, and it will have even a bundle with a special edition 3DS, not like the original, which had the bundle with a normal black Wii. The LTD could be even 2 millions.

Mario Kart 7
Prediction 460-490k
Why Lower than MKWii, but better than MKDS because the brand grew a lot due to DS and Wii popularity, and due to MKWii, also.

These are some of my predictions.
But these can change with the approaching of release dates...so many things can change.
 
Feb 20, 2007
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Since it is kinda difficult to give a precise number for a launch week, why not give a range ?



Chris1964 said:
Even if Kurosaki doesn't appear predictions are opening again tomorrow and we'll have a December prediction too aka 2009.
Oh great, a league again. Hype.
 
Feb 20, 2007
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SlipperySlope said:
I predict the 3DS hardware will see a million week sometime during this holiday. First party and third party line up so perfectly, I think it's only a matter of supply.
This would be unheard of on any continent if I recall correctly. Maybe Nintendo went there in the US with the Wii during Dec, 2008. But otherwise ? Simply no chance at all. This would be an earthquake.
 
Jun 11, 2006
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SlipperySlope said:
I predict the 3DS hardware will see a million week sometime during this holiday. First party and third party line up so perfectly, I think it's only a matter of supply.
I think a good rule-of-thumb for predictions would be 'Is what you're predicting the 3DS to do something the DS itself never achieved? If so, your prediction is not realistic.'
 
Apr 18, 2005
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BKK said:
Or they could avoid the issue altogether by only selling handheld titles on 3DS.
They've already said they'll be selling NES titles on the 3DS VC.

BKK said:
Does 3DS have the same issue as Wii where content is tied to hardware instead of an account?
Yes, but Nintendo has offered a transfer tool to move content since the DSi. The saves get lost in the transfer, though.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
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SlipperySlope said:
I predict the 3DS hardware will see a million week sometime during this holiday. First party and third party line up so perfectly, I think it's only a matter of supply.
DS biggest week was 600k. Even if there was the supply, 70% higher than that is impossible.