Media Create Sales: Week 41, 2014 (Oct 06 - Oct 12)

Oct 10, 2007
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sörine;135130195 said:
For potential future 3DS 100k+ sellers I'd consider:
Attack on Titain: Last Wings of Mankind Chain (Spike Chunsoft)
Bravely Second (Square Enix)
Codename S.T.E.A.M. (Nintendo)
Derby Stallion Gold (Enterbrain)
Etrian Odyssey II Untold: The Fafnir Knight (Atlus)
Final Fantasy Explorers (Square Enix)
Great Detective Pikachu (Pokémon)
Hatsune Miku Project Mirai Deluxe (Sega)
Hero Bank 2 (Sega)
Kenka Bancho 6: Blood & Soul (Spike Chunsoft)
One Piece: Super Grand Battle! X (Bandai Namco)
Pokémon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire (Pokémon)
PoPoLoCrois Story of Seasons (Marvelous)
Samurai Warriors Chronicles 3 (Koei Tecmo)
Tales of the World: Rev Unitia (Bandai Namco)
The Great Ave Attorney (Capcom)
The Legend of Legacy (FuRyu)
Xenoblade Chronicles 3D (Nintendo)
Yo-Kai Watch 2 Shuinuki (Level 5)

And potential 100k+ downloads:
Diffusion Million Arthur (Square Enix)
Killca Drive (Aplus)
3D Final Fantasy I (Square Enix)
Indeed.

2015 has already some important mid-tier releases:
  • Devil Survivor 2: Break Record
  • Bravely Second
  • The Great Ace Attorney
  • Hatsune Miku Project Mirai Deluxe
  • Kenka Bancho 6
  • PoPoLoCrois Monogatari

Almost certain games: some DQ from SQEX, Rune Factory 5, L5's games other than YW, some Atlus titles (probably Etrian Odyssey 3 remake).
 
Indeed.

2015 has already some important mid-tier releases:
  • Devil Survivor 2: Break Record
  • Bravely Second
  • The Great Ace Attorney
  • Hatsune Miku Project Mirai Deluxe
  • Kenka Bancho 6
  • PoPoLoCrois Monogatari

Almost certain games: some DQ from SQEX, Rune Factory 5, L5's games other than YW, some Atlus titles (probably Etrian Odyssey 3 remake).
Of these I think PoPoLoCrois is the most encouraging on the basis that it's also actually adding in a series that isn't already doing 100K+.
 
Oct 10, 2007
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Of these I think PoPoLoCrois is the most encouraging on the basis that it's also actually adding in a series that isn't already doing 100K+.
Well, it's PoPoLoCrois (that used to sell a lot back then) + Harvest Moon (which is a 200k seller rights now). But I don't think 3DS should prove anything in launching new IPs given how many games sold, both physically (Bravely Default, Yo-kai Watch, Fantasy Life) and digitally (The Denpa Men, Bike Rider, Pushmo).
 
Jul 28, 2012
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Personally I tend to feel what's missing is the same thing that's missing in the West, namely mid-tier titles.

Like here's a full list of everything that has done between 100,000 and 500,000 copies so far this year:



This is a list of 12 titles (I included downloadable here for Trozei since I felt it was primarily a DL title, but excluded it from all other categories to be more favorable to mid-tier games/against the argument I'm making). Of these titles, five (we'll count Taiko which is 197K) are above 200K, and one is above 400K.

By comparison:
-There are 29 games with LTDs below 100,000 excluding downloadable titles and ultimate hits.
-There are 5 games above 500K (with three being above 1 million, and one above 2 million).

Now, there's still a lot of time for releases given the holiday season is coming up, but this is the area I feel is getting dry. The mid-tier games seem to be fading in the same way we see it fading in the West between the blockbuster releases and downloadable indie titles.

That's what also stuck out to be about the TGS announcement window for the 3DS. We have a lot of almost assured super successes (especially given that shouldn't be a very high number anyway realistically), and a lot of really small titles, but how many of these are going to be over 100K? How about 200K or higher?

This is not a problem exclusive to the 3DS certainly, but I think it's part of the market that leaves people who bought those games feeling a bit left out, and I think that extends worldwide to dedicated devices in general.
Looking at Japanltdrank gives me these stats,

Number of titles 500k - 100k (so far)

Wii : 64
3DS : 70
PS3 : 176
PSP : 179
DS : 212
PS2 : 347

Middle tier output is decreasing after each generation, in fact thats true for overall output, but it is surprising how little of it the 3DS has gotten despite selling so well and being in such a dominant position. One does have to taking into account that platforms like the PSP and PS3 are much older however I still don;t see the 3DS number beating them in the end.
 
Well, it's PoPoLoCrois (that used to sell a lot back then) + Harvest Moon (which is a 200k seller rights now). But I don't think 3DS should prove anything in launching new IPs given how many games sold, both physically (Bravely Default, Yo-kai Watch, Fantasy Life) and digitally (The Denpa Men, Bike Rider, Pushmo).
Ah, I may not have been clear.

I don't think the lack of mid-tier releases is caused /by the 3DS/, but rather by the change in publisher behavior.

This is an interesting example because even though it's an existing franchise, someone at Marvelous sat down and went "We should make a mid-tier scale game and put it on the 3DS, even though it's not a sequel to an already going 3DS series."

That's the kind of behavior that's lacking for many platforms. When it comes time to ask if they want to make a mid-tier game, especially if it's not a sequel to something that's already going, they usually go "Let's make something else."
 
Oct 10, 2007
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Looking at Japanltdrank gives me these stats,

Number of titles 500k - 100k (so far)

Wii : 64
3DS : 70
PS3 : 176
PSP : 179
DS : 212
PS2 : 347

Middle tier output is decreasing after each generation, in fact thats true for overall output, but it is surprising how little of it the 3DS has gotten despite selling so well and being in such a dominant position. One does have to taking into account that platforms like the PSP and PS3 are much older however I still don;t see the 3DS number beating them in the end.
Other factors to consider:
-many games are now digital only;
-many retail games surpassed the mark if you count also digital sales.

But of course output on dedicated devices has been decreasing since many years.
 
May 19, 2005
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I'd say the problem is everywhere including Japan, though. Namely substitution, and the gradual saturation of the market that remains. Prior to the revision, the outlook wasn't optimistic although I recall some maintain that a natural saturation effect isn't a given. We'll see in coming weeks and months how much of a stopgap the revision will be in stemming decline due to the above issues.

Also negative contextual factors have been mentioned, but there are positive ones often not considered. The dedicated market in Japan consolidated towards handhelds over the last generation or so, and the 3DS has further consolidated that market given its capturing of key third party brands. It's probably worthwhile to incorporate that context too in assessing current performance, relative historical performance etc.
My use of the word okay, apparently.
Decline is inevitable for this year but it'll be interesting to see if it can stop further decline in the coming year. Many people are suggesting that a brand new handheld is still on the cards next year but I see the n3DS as a DSi-like solution (in Japan anyway) and so post-holiday weekly sales will be telling.

Other factors to consider:
-many games are now digital only;
-many retail games surpassed the mark if you count also digital sales.

But of course output on dedicated devices has been decreasing since many years.
It's basically a combination of those factors, yeah. I think having access to full digital (only) software sales is crucial to understand the full extent of the problem though. I mean when you have a big range of 100k to 500k, there's a lot to account for, especially on the lower end.
 
Oct 10, 2007
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It's basically a combination of those factors, yeah. I think having access to full digital (only) software sales is crucial to understand the full extent of the problem though. I mean when you have a big range of 100k to 500k, there's a lot to account for, especially on the lower end.
Indeed.

Also, if you look 3DS' direct competitors, the situation doesn't look much better; though an installed base of over 3m units should be able to support a nice ecosystem of mid-tier games, it seems that PSV is struggling to do that. It has only 21 games over 100k, and only 9 from January 2014.
 
Indeed.

Also, if you look 3DS' direct competitors, the situation doesn't look much better; though an installed base of over 3m units should be able to support a nice ecosystem of mid-tier games, it seems that PSV is struggling to do that. It has only 21 games over 100k, and only 9 from January 2014.
That's why I originally phrased this as an issue for all platforms. Most of them are pretty dead in general to boot.

The 3DS, as the main gaming platform, is just the strongest barometer.
 
Aug 3, 2009
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Moga Village
Legend of Legacy is about to leave Amazon's Top 100, it's currently at #95. It had a good run.

It's been almost a month since their last update, I'm starting to feel bad for them. The project looks good, but they clearly don't have enough money to advertise it, lol.

A new trailer is on the way though.

https://twitter.com/legacy_3ds/status/523786492955471872

Nintendo better make the phone call, give it some Nintendo Direct exposure.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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I think adding digital should be interesting. We recently heard that in the US for the PS4 & XB1, they had like 20-30% digital sales. As such, I would think that kind of behavior would result in some digital only titles selling quite well in the US. Perhaps there is some similar behavior in Japan for the 3DS. For example, we already knew Gunman Clive had sold over 100K in Japan on 3DS.
 
Dec 12, 2010
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I think adding digital should be interesting. We recently heard that in the US for the PS4 & XB1, they had like 20-30% digital sales. As such, I would think that kind of behavior would result in some digital only titles selling quite well in the US. Perhaps there is some similar behavior in Japan for the 3DS. For example, we already knew Gunman Clive had sold over 100K in Japan on 3DS.
Holy hell! Really? I can't wait for Gunman Clive 2.
 
Aug 26, 2005
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retrogamesheaven.com
Indeed.

Also, if you look 3DS' direct competitors, the situation doesn't look much better; though an installed base of over 3m units should be able to support a nice ecosystem of mid-tier games, it seems that PSV is struggling to do that. It has only 21 games over 100k, and only 9 from January 2014.
too much "only" words in your sentence

2011 - 1
2012 - 2
2013 - 9
2014 - 9 (9 months)

Probably next >100k titles will be Gundam Breaker 2 and PSNova, at least this year Vita will have 11 titles with over 100k units sold, better than last year

Check how many >100k had the Wonderswan, another niche platform with around 3mln user base


3DS had (only?) 16 titles in 2014 which sold >100k, for a 5x userbase it's not such a great result, and there are more 3DS games sold every week than PSV ones
 
Mar 22, 2007
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But GAF said it was a bad idea?
You're also part of GAF just as much as the next guy, so why did you say that it was a bad idea? ;)

On a more serious note, i dont think anyone said that it wouldnt sell well, at least from what i saw. I think the bad idea was that releasing a new version that close to the two first version of Yokai Watch 2 might have an affect on the overall sales. I guess only time will tell.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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Holy hell! Really? I can't wait for Gunman Clive 2.
I remember Beril or Mpl saying that at some point. What I have found though is:


Back in 7-15-2013:
Beril said:
"I think the most interesting difference between the platforms is just how incredibly stable the eShop sales have been for over 6 months now. I'm not seeing the massive spikes you see when you get featured on iOS or Android or a Steam sale. The launch numbers and the bumps from various promotions have been pretty modest, but the daily sales keep chugging along and add up to pretty respectable numbers.So far they've never once dipped below 100 copies/day (it got close for a while but now it's way higher again)"
And

Beril said:
12-28-2013 (From Beril):
"Earlier today I tweeted that GC has passed a quarter of a million copies sold combined, so I figured I might as well update this thread with a new pacman graph.



It's been out for about a year on the western eShops now and 6 months in Japan (though I don't have numbers for december in japan yet), and the legs are still crazy. The steam version will finally be released next week so it'll be interesting to see how that compares, and I'll be sure to share as much as I can."
Back then, the game easily sold close to 200K in the eShop, and Beril had said sales in JP were at least initially on par with the rest of the world combined. So 100K doesn't seem too far fetched. Mpl probably has the proper analysis in one of the eShop threads.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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Lol.... YW2's preorder numbers are still pretty insane for a Pokemon Crystal type release imo :)...

[3DS] Yokai Watch 2 star performer - 223pt on comgnet already.

Actual sales for the week on comgnet:

Sorry for the Google Translate...
  1. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4G - 678Pt
  2. [3DS] Youkai Watch 2 originator - 70pt
  3. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS - 68Pt
  4. [3DS] Youkai Watch 2 originator - 45pt
  5. [Vita] Chaos Rings 3 Purikueru Trilogy - 30pt
  6. [PS3] Kingdom Hearts - HD 2.5 Remix - - 13Pt
  7. [PS3] Destiny - 10pt
  8. [3DS] Dragon Quest X Online - 10pt
  9. [Vita] Sword Art Online - Hollow fragments - (Normal Edition) - 9pt
  10. [3DS] ! views of the top connected Haikyu! (Normal Edition)! - 9pt
  11. [3DS] Forbidden Magna - 9pt
  12. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto 5 (Bargain Edition) - 8pt
  13. [Vita] trajectory II The Legend of Heroes blende (Normal Edition) - 6PT
  14. [PS3] FIFA 15 - 6PT
  15. [NDS] training thrilled in touch Anpanman 6pt -
  16. [Vita] AMNESIA LATER × CROWD V Edition - 5pt
  17. [Vita] (DanganRonpa?) absolute despair girl Dangan refute Another Episode - 5pt
  18. [3DS] New Yoshi Island - 5pt
  19. [3DS] it! revive the Temple of Doom Battle TORE legendary riddle! 5pt -
  20. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes Ultimate Mission 2 - 5pt
 
Nov 13, 2011
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Decline is inevitable for this year but it'll be interesting to see if it can stop further decline in the coming year. Many people are suggesting that a brand new handheld is still on the cards next year but I see the n3DS as a DSi-like solution (in Japan anyway) and so post-holiday weekly sales will be telling.
Yeah, Y/Y decline seems like a given overall. But in terms of stemming, I imagine the expectation/intent/hope of the n3DS is to either stabilize sales next year and/or to even reverse the trend.

Probably boils down to, put simplistically:
Upgrade Buyers - |Decrease in New Buyers| > 0

Considering they won't launch the n3DS in most of the Western markets this year, I'd agree we probably won't see a new handheld launch next year, so 2016 is the next most likely candidate I guess.
I think it could work in Japan, but I don't really see it managing to stem declines in the US/West; so I don't really know if waiting until 2016 to launch a new handheld globally is the best idea.
Consumers are more used to half-step rapid upgrade cycles though.
 
Yeah, Y/Y decline seems like a given overall. But in terms of stemming, I imagine the expectation/intent/hope of the n3DS is to either stabilize sales next year and/or to even reverse the trend.

Probably boils down to, put simplistically:
Upgrade Buyers - |Decrease in New Buyers| > 0

Considering they won't launch the n3DS in most of the Western markets this year, I'd agree we probably won't see a new handheld launch next year, so 2016 is the next most likely candidate I guess.
I think it could work in Japan, but I don't really see it managing to stem declines in the US/West; so I don't really know if waiting until 2016 to launch a new handheld globally is the best idea.
Consumers are more used to half-step rapid upgrade cycles though.
I suspect at some point they determined they couldn't be ready in 2015 and decided on this instead.

If we assume a Fall 2016 launch, they also have an incredibly full plate even now:

1.) They have an impressively large (for one company) line-up of Wii U games in development or recently finished, and these are the most resource demanding games they've ever created.
2.) They have promised they're working on am array of 3DS software including N3DS exclusive software, which also require a fair amount of resources.
3.) Someone has to be working on whatever QoL is.
4.) Even if we assume Fall 2016 for the next handheld, if they want 2 year dev cycles, a bunch of people have to be working on them now, and they're likely to be notably high resource games if they want to take advantage of their own hardware.

This is actually an angle that helps me explain why I've been pessimistic that Nintendo will go full bore on absolutely everything.

While Nintendo is growing, this would be notably more demanding than they've ever been able to meet before. It's possible they're able to handle all of this at sufficient volume, as their new office is quite big on top of their new publisher team up push, but historically speaking it wouldn't be unreasonable to suspect at least something to get less support in favor of ramping up on others.

I mean, as an honest question, and even if we ignore QoL, do people expect them to handle all three game items there on full blast? Maybe someone who follows Nintendo's resources closer than me can tell, but I guess this is also what drives some of my assumptions that they're going to pick two of the three as the big focus for the next two years.

They could turn down Wii U support after 2015, they could make a light effort on the 3DS's latter years, they could hope third parties are enough to launch the 4DS, they could delay the 4DS past 2016, or they could have hired 1000 new developers over the past two years without me noticing (do they list game specific R&D staff somewhere?).

This is not to imply a unique Nintendo problem once again. Sony dropped internal Vita support in favor of the PS4 and Microsoft had very little late gen Xbox 360 support and almost no Windows Phone (or even Windows) support in favor of Xbox One. Apple and Google don't even release games.

And finally, obviously being pessimistic about all of these fronts would be silly, and it would likely be unfair to be pessimistic about more than one given Nintendo's size and history.

Now, admittedly I feel I've been pessimistic about both 3DS late gen first party output and 4DS (I'd consider light first party support and a 2017 launch equally bad), but that's because I can't tell which of the two they're actually working on and feel their E3 announcements showed a very strong commitment to the Wii U that I didn't assume prior. Their statements imply strong 3DS support upcoming, but their lack of announcements does not, so I've waffled between whether they're going all in on 4DS or just haven't announced their strong 3DS position yet.

Again, in theory they could be handling all three well, it's just that I haven't seen specific stats (that could well publicly exist, and please do share if you know them I would be more than happy to eat crow here) suggesting this is likely the case.

But yeah, basically I see the pressure from their own commitment to the Wii U, the desire to capitalize on the 3DS's success, and the desire to move on from the 3DS before they have massive harm to the product line (especially in the West) as notably competing and that historically the company has not shown an incredible ability to juggle all of that simultaneously, leading to some of their current troubles.

We've seen Sony already completely fail on this front via the Vita abroad and the PS4 in Japan, and Microsoft's Windows and Windows Phone gaming efforts would be hard to explain as anything but failures.

I do think if they were to cut somewhere, the 3DS is the one that would suffer least for lack of strong support, given how much it's already sold and how far it is into its lifecycle. It's also the platform I feel they have lots of guaranteed support on even with my concerns about shrinking mid-tier support across the board for dedicated devices. Final Fantasy Explorers is a good example of a game that's chasing the high end created by Monster Hunter despite Square Enix's general skittishness, and obviously we've had phenomenal success for Level 5 in chasing the audience Pokemon carved out, so those are encouraging signs for getting third party investment targeted at big sales even at this phase.
 
Nov 13, 2011
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That's a pretty reasonable analysis. And I'd agree the 3DS and whatever comes after is likely to suffer the least. Although, I would say that it's not entirely silly to be neutral to pessimistic on each of their business fronts, at least on the premise that in trying to do everything they may end up not doing managing to excel in any one area. There are pretty big potential pitfalls/negative factors influencing each area, and I'd probably add a fifth to your list:

-current handheld and revision
-new handheld launch
-current ailing home console
-QoL (It's hard to know what exactly is happening with QoL, considering they've gone into radio silence on it. It's supposed to be launching in FYE 3/16 as well)
-future home console launch

And it is pretty notable that their competitors have been incapable of simultaneously launching/supporting multiple gaming platforms.

It also doesn't help that the domestic and international/Western markets seem to be at very different stages on some of these business lines.
 
Sep 1, 2013
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too much "only" words in your sentence

2011 - 1
2012 - 2
2013 - 9
2014 - 9 (9 months)

Probably next >100k titles will be Gundam Breaker 2 and PSNova, at least this year Vita will have 11 titles with over 100k units sold, better than last year

Check how many >100k had the Wonderswan, another niche platform with around 3mln user base


3DS had (only?) 16 titles in 2014 which sold >100k, for a 5x userbase it's not such a great result, and there are more 3DS games sold every week than PSV ones
Comparisons can be fun. Take Dreamcast for example, a system that sold less than than 3 million but managed 37 100k+ sellers in just 3 years. Even Dreamcast is embarrassing Vita.

The truth is all platforms are down pretty significantly from a historical context, which was sort of Nirolak's point. 3DS is currently sitting at 91 100k+ sellers (retail), which is potentially already more than Vita, PS4 and Wii U will see combined in their lifetimes (and Xbox One if it ever manages any). But that even's a far cry from systems like PS2 or DS which managed hundreds of games that sold over 100k. The middle tier is dissappearing and it's having a pretty direct impact.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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i look at wii u development and i can sorta see where they're just scrapping for a lineup at this point. there are a few games that are bigger budget and have been in development for a while - those would be xenoblade, zelda, and fire emblem. yoshi's wooly world also will have had two years in the cooker. the future lineup is otherwise filled with well, filler. captain toad looks to heavily reuse super mario 3d world assets and game design to quickly make a retail release. nes remix 1+2 is coming out for retail too. mario maker is one of those ideas that feels a touch desperate to me, which as fun as an idea as it is, seems to lack a real push from within nintendo (at least not to the same degree splatoon got). splatoon is being made by a smaller team. miyamoto's projects are literally old discarded n64 ideas. devil's third was an abandoned game. mario party is on a semi-yearly schedule. only star fox seems like it could be a big-budget game for the platform after the initial sales woes were known. i feel like they are essentially stretching for time though.

3ds development is even more barren, but i think this is how they get people interested in majora's mask (with a mandatory ram upgrade for nostalgia's sake). it's the period of the nintendo handheld's life where it's mostly supported by intsys and remakes from other companies. monster games is probably working on some sort of port for the machine.

qol seems like it would almost have to be the wii fit guys, although it could also be the wii sports guys. i would imagine the wii fit side of ead will be made the main team for that moving forward though. if i were to guess, instead of selling a $100 game for a $300 system, the wii fit games will somehow be split up and attached to various kinds of hardware. i wonder if we'll hear about it this week?

the big guess is that nintendo's working on some sort of dual-platform release. or something where the hardware is profitable and most games are compatible across both units. it would go a long way to eliminating droughts and cut down on cost of goods (presumably). if 2015's wii u output really is them scrapping for ideas and 3ds really is nintendo just kind of letting intsys and third-parties do their thing, then i can see 2016 and 2017 with new ead tokyo, retro, and next-level games early on.
 
That's a pretty reasonable analysis. And I'd agree the 3DS and whatever comes after is likely to suffer the least. Although, I would say that it's not entirely silly to be neutral to pessimistic on each of their business fronts, at least on the premise that in trying to do everything they may end up not doing managing to excel in any one area. There are pretty big potential pitfalls/negative factors influencing each area, and I'd probably add a fifth to your list:

-current handheld and revision
-new handheld launch
-current ailing home console
-QoL (It's hard to know what exactly is happening with QoL, considering they've gone into radio silence on it. It's supposed to be launching in FYE 3/16 as well)
-future home console launch

And it is pretty notable that their competitors have been incapable of simultaneously launching/supporting multiple gaming platforms.

It also doesn't help that the domestic and international/Western markets seem to be at very different stages on some of these business lines.
Right, for the bolded, my sentiment does not hold true if they actually both A.) do not have enough resources to support everything and B.) try to support everything equally anyway.

I'm assuming they will actually chop off an arm like they often do to try and give suitable support to at least one product arm for a couple of years like they normally do. If they instead try putting out 4 games a year for each of three systems and then give extra resources into QoL (which I am incredibly bearish on until proven otherwise), they could end up in that scenario.

However, since I'm going off historical trends for them, I felt it would be a bit unfair of me to assume they'd take what's effectively the worst possible path for all their platforms if that's not what they've done historically.

And yes, I think the split success is a huge issue for them. In Japan the 3DS feels like it can sail to Fall 2016 without major issues. However, in the West that seems like borderline insanity.

For their next home console, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt that when they imply the handheld and console will share games, they mean that in a rather directly rather than Smash where they basically had to make two separate games to the same game design, and that they actually intend to do so.
 
Jun 9, 2012
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Their next handheld will probably be strong enough to handle Wii U ports (or at least Xenoblade like downgrades of them), so I imagine we will probably see Nintendo trying to maximize these some of these games in the early days of the 4DS. Nintendo also hasn't fully jumped on the HD bandwagon despite Wind Waker HD doing really well so I could see more of those as well. We'll have a much clearer picture of everything by E3 next year though. The lack of 3DS games at this E3 can be explained by the focus on Wii U, but if there is lack of both next year at E3 we'll know they are moving on from both. I think Nintendo can get out a servicable launch by the end of 2016 assuming they don't go crazy with the new 3DS, which I don't see why they would. The n3DS doesn't seem like it will have a great chance of stemming the disinterest from new buyers in the system that has happened lately.

Of course, I think the more worrying thing is Nintendo having a great launch in the west. They can't afford a soft launch there in the current environment. Unless the news of the n3DS impacted sales of the 3DS last month, the lack of decent bump from Smash Bros is worrying about how they can extend the 3DS's viability to a point where they can have a good launch.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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Am I the only one who thought Nintendo prioritized the 3DS for Japan and the Wii U for the US/EU and thus the new 3DS release dates?

NoA had already discussed advertising for the 2DS and Pokemon in October and then switching to the Wii U & 3D World in November didn't work out well for either platform last year. As such, I thought they decided to advertise for Smash in general (since advertising the 3DS version will get people to ask about the Wii U version anyways) and the Wii U. Hyrule and Bayo 2 seems to have gotten some advertising budget alongside the main marketing with Smash 3DS. I figure they'll heavily focus on Smash Wii U & Amiibo starting in November, while advertising Pokemon ORAS as needed and letting it do its thing. Considering the Wii U has sold about half of its US LTD in 3 months for example (Nov-Dec 2012 & Dec 2013), a good holiday for the Wii U leading into the rest of the 2015 will likely have a much greater impact over putting that money into launching the new 3DS. Plus a good holiday, along with a slate of titles in 2015, might at least make the Wii U get closer to breaking even. I still have no idea what they'll launch the new 3DS with next year in the west (MH4U? anything else? time to localize YW, FFEX, P&DZ and stuff? Plus Bravely Second & the Great Ace Attorney would be nice.).

On the other hand, selling 1M+ units of the 3DS in Japan thanks to the revision will likely be far more profitable than pushing the Wii U in the land of mobile & handhelds. Thus the blitz of Smash 3DS, MH4G, and Pokemon ORAS along with the surprise success of YW2 & the release of 2.5 in December. Plus you've got some investment for SQEX with FFEX and Namco with a One Piece game.

Also Anihawk, I think you're just discrediting a large amount of the Wii U lineup kind of randomly. Captain Toad, while reusing 3D World assets, looks like a very polished affair and has over 70 levels (which is way more than I expected). It was always clearly a smaller project, especially cemented because of its price. Saying Splatoon has a smaller team really means nothing (more power to them for using less people), as they can devote more resources later if need be. Also, just because Mario Party is semi-yearly these days really has nothing to do with anything? MP4 was the second best selling title on the GC in Japan, and most of the best-selling titles these days on all consoles are yearly/semi-yearly. I think they're just being resourceful with what they have, which is clearly what they should be doing considering the large amount of projects they're likely working on (new 3DS, Wii U titles, future handhelds/consoles, QoL, etc.)
 
I'm kinda thinking that QOL has been Vitality Sensor'd. It's strange how they've barely said anything and I mean ANYTHING since they announced it.

Honestly I will support a rug burial for it as it seems way too much of a bad idea considering where they need to focus on; their empty Wii U support and plans to get the 4DS out soon enough.

QOL just seems like something that will eat up valuable resources and for what exactly? We don't even know.
 
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Also Anihawk, I think you're just discrediting a large amount of the Wii U lineup kind of randomly. Captain Toad, while reusing 3D World assets, looks like a very polished affair and has over 70 levels (which is way more than I expected). It was always clearly a smaller project, especially cemented because of its price. Saying Splatoon has a smaller team really means nothing (more power to them for using less people), as they can devote more resources later if need be. Also, just because Mario Party is semi-yearly these days really has nothing to do with anything? MP4 was the second best selling title on the GC in Japan, and most of the best-selling titles these days on all consoles are yearly/semi-yearly. I think they're just being resourceful with what they have, which is clearly what they should be doing considering the large amount of projects they're likely working on (new 3DS, Wii U titles, future handhelds/consoles, QoL, etc.)
well that's kind of what i mean though. i would be actually surprised if super mario galaxy 3 showed up as a wii u title. or metroid prime 4 or something. i'm running under the assumption that they're funding smaller projects to fill out the wii u's library while they let 3ds run on fumes and prepare for a larger push with the next round of hardware. star fox has the potential to be the only game for the wii u that could be high-budget after the system was known to be tanking.
 
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I'm kinda thinking that QOL has been Vitality Sensor'd. It's strange how they've barely said anything and I mean ANYTHING since they announced it.

Honestly I will support a rug burial for it as it seems way too much of a bad idea considering where they need to focus on; their empty Wii U support and plans to get the 4DS out soon enough.

QOL just seems like something that will eat up valuable resources and for what exactly? We don't even know.
i think discrediting it because it's something we don't know isn't the best step forward. nintendo should be diversifying and should be trying to expand their business so they can keep making hardware and software, and be able to keep everyone employed at the same time. considering we only heard about qol once does make me wonder about its current state though.
 
i think discrediting it because it's something we don't know isn't the best step forward. nintendo should be diversifying and should be trying to expand their business so they can keep making hardware and software, and be able to keep everyone employed at the same time. considering we only heard about qol once does make me wonder about its current state though.
We'll see I guess. :)

Also, isn't Star Fox "episodic"? I'm worried they're gimping it as some lame eShop series rather than a AAA retail game. :(
 
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I'm kinda thinking that QOL has been Vitality Sensor'd. It's strange how they've barely said anything and I mean ANYTHING since they announced it.

Honestly I will support a rug burial for it as it seems way too much of a bad idea considering where they need to focus on; their empty Wii U support and plans to get the 4DS out soon enough.

QOL just seems like something that will eat up valuable resources and for what exactly? We don't even know.
I would wait until the next investor's meeting before saying something like that.

We'll see I guess. :)

Also, isn't Star Fox "episodic"? I'm worried they're gimping it as some lame eShop series rather than a AAA retail game. :(
I don't think it is and if its going to be go back to the classic style it could potentially work better as an eShop title.
 
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We'll see I guess. :)

Also, isn't Star Fox "episodic"? I'm worried they're gimping it as some lame eShop series rather than a AAA retail game. :(
this is the quote:

Perhaps if you noticed in Project Guard, there was a Star Fox logo on the cameras! I have different ideas for what would be possible, but I haven’t finalized anything yet. One idea that I had for Star Fox is something like the Thunderbirds TV series, where they had all these different vehicles and Mechs that they could use. I’m not certain, but one thing I think about Star Fox is that, instead of just a ship-based adventure that we’ve seen in previous Star Fox games, there’s multiple different mechs and vehicles and things that they use. And maybe, within that, the Project Guard style of gameplay could be one element of sort of a larger-scaled thing.

The other analogy I’ve been using with the team is that the Star Fox games that we used to make were Star Fox for the movie theater, a big dramatic adventure. And this time, with our focus, it’s a little bit more of Star Fox if it were a TV series. So maybe Project Guard is the TV series of Star Fox that runs late at night, and the main missions of Star Fox are the TV series that runs in primetime.
miyamoto is speaking in conceptual terms, not practical real-world terms. he never even once uses the term 'episodic' to describe it, and only mentions television as a contrast to theater experiences.
 
this is the quote:



miyamoto is speaking in conceptual terms, not practical real-world terms. he never even once uses the term 'episodic' to describe it, and only mentions television as a contrast to theater experiences.
Hope so, I guess it was just easy to take it like that, even just Googling the words show I wasn't alone in that assumption.
 
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Hope so, I guess it was just easy to take it like that, even just Googling the words show I wasn't alone in that assumption.
even if it was an eshop release, i would be surprised if they didn't do a retail release of it at some point. to me it sounds more like kirby superstar where there are different modes, but one main traditional kirby game.

the dude's a designer though, so he speaks in terms of concepts. i'm pretty sure that's what he meant.
 
Oct 10, 2007
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too much "only" words in your sentence

2011 - 1
2012 - 2
2013 - 9
2014 - 9 (9 months)

Probably next >100k titles will be Gundam Breaker 2 and PSNova, at least this year Vita will have 11 titles with over 100k units sold, better than last year

Check how many >100k had the Wonderswan, another niche platform with around 3mln user base


3DS had (only?) 16 titles in 2014 which sold >100k, for a 5x userbase it's not such a great result, and there are more 3DS games sold every week than PSV ones
My point still stands. PSV might be able to support a nice ecosystem of middle-tier games with its 3m+ installed base; no need to cherry pick the Wonderswan, since there have 3m+ hardware with a lot more 100k+ sellers, such as the GC and the DC.

Right now, 3DS have 16 100k+ 2014 games (17 if you count Puyo Tetris which is at 91k units), with a likely total of 25 titles that will surpass the mark at the end of the year. Among them, there are million seller, 500k sellers, 300k sellers, and so on. Another problem with PSV is also that it has not been able to pull "big" sellers (big considering the installed base): only 7 games above 200k+, 4 of which are above 250k units.

Furthermore, you have to consider that 3DS has plenty of games that have been released last year or in 2012 (hell, even in 2011!) that sold more than 100k units in 2014: Pokémon X / Y, Mario Kart 7, Puzzle & Dragons Z, Attack on Titan, Monster Hunter 4, Youkai Watch. If you look at how many games sold more than 100k units in 2014 on 3DS (without considering the release date) the amount is a lot higher; if you do the same exercise for PSV, the amount is barely the same.
 
Jul 28, 2012
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too much "only" words in your sentence

2011 - 1
2012 - 2
2013 - 9
2014 - 9 (9 months)

Probably next >100k titles will be Gundam Breaker 2 and PSNova, at least this year Vita will have 11 titles with over 100k units sold, better than last year

Check how many >100k had the Wonderswan, another niche platform with around 3mln user base


3DS had (only?) 16 titles in 2014 which sold >100k, for a 5x userbase it's not such a great result, and there are more 3DS games sold every week than PSV ones
I think another big reason is that even though the 3DS is the largest platform a lot, and I mean a lot of Japanese titles are skipping the platform due to various reasons.

Minecraft: PS Vita Edition launches on October 29th in Japan on PSN.
smh
 
Oct 10, 2007
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I think another big reason is that even though the 3DS is the largest platform a lot, and I mean a lot of Japanese titles are skipping the platform due to various reasons.
Well, this has always been true, even during SNES and PS1 era, so I don't see any weird trend. GC received many exclusive games from third parties, such as entries in Naruto and One Piece franchises, Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles, Harvest Moon, Sonic...
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
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I like Nirolak analysis.
I think that for the West Nintendo will launch the N3DS, probably alongside Majora's mask 3D by Grezzo, plus some other localizations (MH4G, Fossil fighter, Final Fantasy Explorer, maybe Yokai Watch?) and some new mid-tier games (like Code STEAM for example) and that's all.
In Japan we saw a good nnumber of small games, a good amount of mid-tier games and probably there will be a couple of big hits (like YW3, right? We all know...or maybe some DQ, like the Monster game they already announced without platform? I can't see Pokemon Z being a 2015 3DS exclusive, but I could be wrong)
WW I think that we could see an Amiibo-focused game, probably by a second party team, imho.
In this pictrure, Nintendo actual developing effort is small: IntSys on Steam, Grezzo on MM3D, maybe Gamefreak on Pokemon Z. And another team on an amiibo game.

About Wii U 2015 will see many releases from first and second party studios, probably with some announced game delayed, but probably with one/two unannounced game released: I think that their effort will cover 2015 quite well, with some game for the first half of 2016.
In this picture their developing effort is strong.

I think that QOL will be a mistake by their part, expecially in terms of studios dedicated to development, that struggle to support continuosly two platforms, imagine three pillars...but I also think that they will dedicate small teams to that "console", recycling assets from many Wii/WiiU/ds/3DS games, with simple play patterns

This could be somehow balanced by their announced "OS" strategy. That thing and the comments about the Wii U architecture will lead, imho, into a "Super WiiU" with similar gap in terms of powers as the one we saw from GC to Wii, with 4DS and SuperWIiU able to manage almost the same games.

basically, I think that they will:

spend small effort, still managing the console decently, on 3DS
spend a decent amount of effort into the Wii U to cover until half of 2016
spend a small amount of actual developing effort into QOL
spend a decent amount of effrot into the launch of 4DS/SuperWIiU for fall 2016, sharing assets, engines and partially also actual games
 
Jul 28, 2012
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Well, this has always been true, even during SNES and PS1 era, so I don't see any weird trend. GC received many exclusive games from third parties, such as entries in Naruto and One Piece franchises, Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles, Harvest Moon, Sonic...
I think its more prominent with the 3DS case. Naruto was still on PS2 as was One Piece. Just looking at the GCN 2014 third party list and compare it with the PS2's. Bear in mind general output has decreased but this just makes getting games on you're platform even more important.

Now that I look at it more closely most of the disparity is mainly due to Japanese devs developing games for PS3/4 so I don't think 3DS is losing support (although it has in a few cases like Kingdom Hearts, Resident Evil) since those games were never going to come on 3DS in the first place. I guess I've gone about this wrong.

You know what would be interesting to see: how many handheld franchises have gotten console iterations and vice versa?