Media Create Sales: Week 41, 2014 (Oct 06 - Oct 12)

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
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I doubt there were ever plans to launch a 3DS successor in 2015. Basically it was always just a guess from certain "experts" in my opinion.
I agree, considering that they launched in 2011. 4 years long lifecycle for a console that it's not repeating DS numbers, but (to me) is still selling more than decently (ww, especially in Japan), and that is aiming at 60+ millions LTD would be very strange imho.
I can understand doubts about wii U lifetime, but not 3DS ones.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
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Launching a new portable less than 3 years after they released their first HD console with mayor projects in development was never going to happen. Thats why we are getting n3DS, Amiibo, QoL etc. with features that normally could have been held off for next-generation systems.
 
Jan 1, 2006
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I share most of the ideas about N3DS / WIIU / QoL and next-gen platforms. I really really hope they think their next-gen strategy through, especially the shared OS/games stuff. It's one of the biggest opportunities they have and if they do it in the wrong way (hardware/architecture/platform speaking) they won't get out of trouble for the next 5-10 years.

If they do it well though, there are a lot of new opportunities. A high focus on scalability is one of the most important things for them imo.

- QoL hardware (?) runs QoL software
- 4DS runs 4DS software + QoL software + certain SuperWii software in lower resolution/fidelity
- SuperWii runs everything: QoL software, dedicated SuperWii software + 4DS software in HD

This way they can make the maximum performance from their software teams.
 
Aug 4, 2005
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I think that the very existence of New 3DS is a proof that Nintendo is willing to support the platform until 2016, when a successor will likely be released.
Launching a new portable less than 3 years after they released their first HD console with mayor projects in development was never going to happen. Thats why we are getting n3DS, Amiibo, QoL etc. with features that normally could have been held off for next-generation systems.
The most sense for Nintendo would be launching QoL in 2015, 4DS in 2016 and Wii U 2 in 2017. The problem? Wii U in 2016. Seeing how Nintendo left to die the Wii and GC we could see a barren schedule just like the Wii in 2011.

But this is Nintendo so everything could happen :|
 
Aug 24, 2011
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The most sense for Nintendo would be launching QoL in 2015, 4DS in 2016 and Wii U 2 in 2017. The problem? Wii U in 2016. Seeing how Nintendo left to die the Wii and GC we could see a barren schedule just like the Wii in 2011.

But this is Nintendo so everything could happen :|
3DS is also going to be a problem especially in the west if they are plannig late 2016 launch for 4DS. Its US sales are already pretty horrific and I really don't see n3DS giving it anything else than couple months of bump as some of the old userbase upgrades.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
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3DS is also going to be a problem especially in the west if they are plannig late 2016 launch for 4DS. Its US sales are already pretty horrific and I really don't see n3DS giving it anything else than couple months of bump as some of the old userbase upgrades.
for the West I think that:

N3DS + N3DS XL launch
Price cut for 2DS and existing 3DS models
MH4G
YW*
Fossil Fighters
Code STEAM
Majora's Mask 3D*
Final fantasy explorer
amiibo's game (pokemon?)*

could lead to a decent hold for the fifth year, and than launch the new one in 2016.

*I made those up. but could easily be.
 
Aug 25, 2010
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I remember Beril or Mpl saying that at some point. What I have found though is:


Back in 7-15-2013:


And



Back then, the game easily sold close to 200K in the eShop, and Beril had said sales in JP were at least initially on par with the rest of the world combined. So 100K doesn't seem too far fetched. Mpl probably has the proper analysis in one of the eShop threads.
I don't think it was quite 100k in Japan when I said that. I said it was selling on par with the rest of the world, not that the LTD sales had caught up. The Japanese sales have fallen behind a bit since then, but it is over 100k now, and close to 300k in total on 3DS.
 
Dec 14, 2007
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for the West I think that:

N3DS + N3DS XL launch
Price cut for 2DS and existing 3DS models
MH4G
YW*
Fossil Fighters
Code STEAM
Majora's Mask 3D*
Final fantasy explorer
amiibo's game (pokemon?)*

could lead to a decent hold for the fifth year, and than launch the new one in 2016.

*I made those up. but could easily be.
Decent? None of those have much selling power. Maybe Majora's Mask but even that's questionable given its divisiveness.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
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Decent? None of those have much selling power. Maybe Majora's Mask but even that's questionable given its divisiveness.
How many "big guns" the 3DS had this year? Smash and Pokemon, right?
I think that an amiibo focused pokemon game could be a big seller, Zelda could sell decently and FF with him, while the other could be small but still decent sellers (even MH4, looking at sales of MH3G, considering that there is no Wii U version this time, and that it has online multi), that, together with the launch of two revisions and the possible price cut of the older models could lead into a similar year.
that would be decent for the West waiting for a 2016 launch.
I don't really see the launch of a new handheld in 15 as the right thing to do by Nintendo, imho.
I think that it would better for them to follow the path I stated before, possibly adding more "weight" to the launch of some other titles (I've just listed the already known, plus some "questionable" but still possible addition)
 
Aug 4, 2005
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3DS is also going to be a problem especially in the west if they are plannig late 2016 launch for 4DS. Its US sales are already pretty horrific and I really don't see n3DS giving it anything else than couple months of bump as some of the old userbase upgrades.
I was talking more about SW releases droughts. 3DS probably won't reach 250k/month in the USA but it still has games planned for 2015 (and I'm sure that it'll have for 2016 too). And if Nintendo decides to stop making first party games for the 3DS at least it'll have japanese games to translate and distribute in the West to fill gaps.

For the Wii U? If Nintendo stops its first party games in 2015, 2016 will be a wasteland. We could see a mirror of Wii's 2011 with Skyward Sword if Nintendo delays Zelda U for 2016 but that's it (and maybe SMTxFE). Be it "second tier" games like Toad, Yoshi, Splatoon or even more HD remasters but Nintendo needs to keep releasing games for the Wii U in 2016 if they want to launch the next home console in 2017.

It's still far away but we'll see this in E3 next year. I expect the QoL unveiling and we'll see their SW focus for the existing HW.
 
Dec 14, 2007
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How many "big guns" the 3DS had this year? Smash and Pokemon, right?
I think that an amiibo focused pokemon game could be a big seller, Zelda could sell decently and FF with him, while the other could be small but still decent sellers (even MH4, looking at sales of MH3G, considering that there is no Wii U version this time, and that it has online multi), that, together with the launch of two revisions and the possible price cut of the older models could lead into a similar year.
that would be decent for the West waiting for a 2016 launch.
I don't really see the launch of a new handheld in 15 as the right thing to do by Nintendo, imho.
I think that it would better for them to follow the path I stated before, possibly adding more "weight" to the launch of some other titles (I've just listed the already known, plus some "questionable" but still possible addition)
Yeah the 3DS only had 2 big games this year outside of Japan which is why it's not doing well despite having a killer year last year. Nintendo needs to learn how to support its platforms in the late stages. What they did for the Wii during its last 2 years or so should be considered a crime.

In any case, it would bum me out if the line-up you outlined was the 2015 line-up. It's basically just a bunch of localized year (or two) old niche games and a remake.
 
Jun 1, 2014
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UK, sometimes France
The most sense for Nintendo would be launching QoL in 2015, 4DS in 2016 and Wii U 2 in 2017. The problem? Wii U in 2016. Seeing how Nintendo left to die the Wii and GC we could see a barren schedule just like the Wii in 2011.

But this is Nintendo so everything could happen :|
I don't think there'd be a problem for WiiU in 2016, it may be just a repeat of 2015 (mostly B-tier games/IPs + some stuff). The problem is if their next console comes in 2017, they couldn't release it in fall: nothing for WiiU in 2017, and hard to release a home console early in the year.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
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Nintendo will work out when they'll have a decent launch lineup for 4DS, and then release it 18 months before that. Second quarter 2016 is my bet.
Mhhh, could be Q2 2015 for Japan and later for the west?
I think that the main "misteries" are related to:

- QOL: will this be an actual console? if so, will it be launched in 2015, right?
- Willl the "OS" mean very similar consoles, with the same power/games? if so, it would be better (possible?) to launch both 4DS and SuperWiiU at the same moment?

Yeah the 3DS only had 2 big games this year outside of Japan which is why it's not doing well despite having a killer year last year. Nintendo needs to learn how to support its platforms in the late stages. What they did for the Wii during its last 2 years or so should be considered a crime.

In any case, it would bum me out if the line-up you outlined was the 2015 line-up. It's basically just a bunch of localized year (or two) old niche games and a remake.
3DS isn't on fire in the West but I think that the YtD will still be somehow decent and that next year with the launch of the revisions and probably the price cut of the old models could be repeated. I don't want to provoce another "ok-good-bad" debate, I'd just say that launching a new handheld in 2015 would not be a better idea than continue supporting the 3DS with the launch of the N3DS, MH4G, FFExplorer, FFighters, YW, Steam, probably Zelda MM3D and Pokemiibo and so on (please note that we cannot judge the lineup now, we all know that especially for 3DS, especially from Nintendo, games could be revealed near launch)

seriously, with the N3DS launching next year in the West, I can't see them launching the 4DS too.
 
I agree, considering that they launched in 2011. 4 years long lifecycle for a console that it's not repeating DS numbers, but (to me) is still selling more than decently (ww, especially in Japan), and that is aiming at 60+ millions LTD would be very strange imho.
I can understand doubts about wii U lifetime, but not 3DS ones.
They have a precedent though.

The GBA released in 2001 and was replaced in 2004.

It's a system that has an LTD of over 81 million.

Both the GBA and DS worked out pretty well for Nintendo too in the end.
 
Dec 19, 2013
4,910
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Kent, UK
www.youtube.com
They have a precedent though.

The GBA released in 2001 and was replaced in 2004.

It's a system that has an LTD of over 81 million.

Both the GBA and DS worked out pretty well for Nintendo too in the end.
I was just about to say, they replaced the GBA with the best selling handheld console of all time that was a revelation at the time - if Nintendo think the 4DS is going to cause a similar jump in sales from 3DS then I'm sure they would end the 3DS's life span early, but I'm not convinced they do from the fact the New 3DS is being released.
 
Nov 30, 2011
9,772
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Sweden
I don't think there'd be a problem for WiiU in 2016, it may be just a repeat of 2015 (mostly B-tier games/IPs + some stuff). The problem is if their next console comes in 2017, they couldn't release it in fall: nothing for WiiU in 2017, and hard to release a home console early in the year.
I don't think nintendo will release a console until 2018, they will want to use the 4DS to cut down development time and be able to port stuff over easily
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
3
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They have a precedent though.

The GBA released in 2001 and was replaced in 2004.

It's a system that has an LTD of over 81 million.

Both the GBA and DS worked out pretty well for Nintendo too in the end.
I hope they will not thing to repeat the "out of nowhere" experiment of the DS with the next handheld.
Remember how they launched the DS? crappy looking console, no relevant games for months, it seemed just a test for the dual screen/touch interface to many of us.
maybe they will (believe to) have the "next big thing" in hand, but I hope they will better plan the launch in today's market (with smartphones, tablets and so on), pushing for a "nintendo environment" (that NintendOS we already partially discussed) and for a solid lineup that can place the console as "THE" console to have in the dedicated portable hw segment with both first and third party "portable must have".
otherwise, I think they will face serious troubles.
 
Sep 1, 2013
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GBA's truncated cycle was due entirely to the looming threat of PSP. Looking back it might seem silly but at the time the industry was sort of expecting Sony to come in and do to Nintendo in the handheld market a repeat of what they did to them in the console market. Even with the weird "third pillar" DS many were expecting that to be inevitable.

The way things went though I feel like Nintendo probably could've held off on DS for another year or two and still been fine. Consumers weren't really ready to give up GBA yet either, especially in the US where it felt like Nintendo had to forcefully put down the system. And DS was obviously super rushed with it's early droughts, tech-demoish initial games and even prototype looking case design. A DS that looked like the Lite day one and launch holiday 2005 / spring 2006 with more fully formed games would've killed out the gates and never looked back. Instead DS suffered the worst first 12 months sales if any Nintendo handheld.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,410
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It was easy to kill the GBA when most of their output consisted of SNES ports and the development was much cheaper, not to mention that the system had no competition Nintendo had to actively kill the GBA to make room for the DS. The GB family also was quite cheap compared to the expensive 3DS line.

The DS was introduced as a third pillar and their financial situation would have allowed them to release Gameboy 2 if the system had bombed. This isnt the case this generation.

It will be interesting to see the next portable move, but it wont happen before 2016 and i dont think they can or want to release anything before. They will wait long enough to be able to release a 149$/€ or less costing handheld that can stand on his own. The price strategy will probably be one of the biggest differences compared to the current gen, software prices and hardware prices will go down.... but you will get only the "base" game for that price and everything extra will be DLC. This wont be the case for the prestige title like Mario or Zelda. But for most other stuff you will be able to get the game for 10--20 bucks and be able to add additional content via DLC. Bigger games will get the Retail editions we are used to know, everything else will be sold as download eShop cards.

How early they release the next system in 2016 depends on the n3DS, WiiU, Amiibo and QoL performance next year.
 
Mar 9, 2012
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Tsutaya's report.

- MH4G and New 3DS sales still strong. Stock problems continued this week, specially the XL that was practically no-existent.
- MH4G will keep the first place of sales the full month.
- Pre-orders for The Evil Within are in good shape. PS4 > PS3. The second place for the game and a rise for PS4 hardware are expected next week.
- Pre-orders for Jikkyou Baseball 2014 are also good. Better than last year due to some japanese players present. PS3 is the main version.

----

New 3DS XL is still sold out in Ikebukuro.
 
Jun 1, 2014
10,184
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UK, sometimes France
Tsutaya's report.

- MH4G and New 3DS sales still strong. Stock problems continued this week, specially the XL that was practically no-existent.
- MH4G will keep the first place of sales the full month.
- Pre-orders for The Evil Within are in good shape. PS4 > PS3. The second place for the game and a rise for PS4 hardware are expected next week.
- Pre-orders for Jikkyou Baseball 2014 are also good. Better than last year due to some japanese players present. PS3 is the main version.

----

New 3DS XL is still sold out in Ikebukuro.
A rise over the previous rise? Or just over the usual ~7k? Because I'm expecting the latter.
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
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Tsutaya's report.

- MH4G and New 3DS sales still strong. Stock problems continued this week, specially the XL that was practically no-existent.
- MH4G will keep the first place of sales the full month.
- Pre-orders for The Evil Within are in good shape. PS4 > PS3. The second place for the game and a rise for PS4 hardware are expected next week.
- Pre-orders for Jikkyou Baseball 2014 are also good. Better than last year due to some japanese players present. PS3 is the main version.

----

New 3DS XL is still sold out in Ikebukuro.
N3DSXL still facing shortages? Hmm... I hope they're prepared for the holidays :p
Then again, I remember the 3DS facing similar shortages last year during the MH4/Pokémon release period.

And wow @ YW2.5 pre-orders. Do people know it's just an expansion? :p
 
Jul 29, 2010
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I don't think it was quite 100k in Japan when I said that. I said it was selling on par with the rest of the world, not that the LTD sales had caught up. The Japanese sales have fallen behind a bit since then, but it is over 100k now, and close to 300k in total on 3DS.
Ah ok. Seems like I misinterpreted what you said. Thanks for the info/correction and those sales are quite impressive!
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
I don't think it was quite 100k in Japan when I said that. I said it was selling on par with the rest of the world, not that the LTD sales had caught up. The Japanese sales have fallen behind a bit since then, but it is over 100k now, and close to 300k in total on 3DS.
Thanks for the update! And sorry if I misunderstood back then. This is probably be a good thing to post tomorrow in the eShop charts thread :D
 
Mar 19, 2009
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Launching first on PSN doesn't mean it's only going to be available on PSN. Minecraft PS3, PS4 and Vita all launched first on PSN before a retail release a few months later in the west.

SCEJA is a weird company, though. They published a physical version of Rain on PS3 nearly a year after it came out on PSN because of reasons unknown. Minecraft would greatly outsell that
and like 95% of their output for the next year
at retail.
 
Jan 27, 2013
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Initial D: Perfect Shift Online (3DS F2P) has surpassed 500k downloads: http://www.famitsu.com/news/201410/22064098.html
Wow, the F2P market in 3ds is slowly but surely growing.

This makes my idea of each company like Sega and Bamco making their own version of Mii plaza is not impossible lol.

The game will be F2Download however to obtain hats and customization on ur Miis for Bamco or Sega IP's character u will need to obtain token from playing the minigames or faster just spam money there. It will be a easy money there.
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
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Gibson's finally at it again!

In the past two weeks New 3DS has sold 326k in Japan versus the old model at 55k, driven by Monster Hunter 4G (over 2m). Impressive work.
Since he leaks Famitsu numbers, that gives 92 517 units for week 2. Roughly 30k for 3DS/3DS XL.