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Media Create Sales: Week 47, 2011 (Nov 21 - Nov 27)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Monster Hunter or no Monster Hunter, there will always be a 'next big thing'. Last gen MH exploded on PSP, this gen it could be a franchise yet to be announced or an existing one that is just going to blow up. It ALWAYS happens, simply always unless a console absolutely crashes and burns like the PS3 or Dreamcast.
Good to see 3DS going well, it crashing and burning worse than the hinderburg at a high price should hopefully make it clear to Nintendo that above all price matters for a system with or without the likes of Mario. So with that said fingers crossed Wii U is launched at a decent price.
You sir are the best thing to happen to Gaf in a long long time
Fixed.
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
Wow.
What? People are still making "check that box" jokes...
Taking an arbitrary figure of 2 million copies, which captures the notion of a mega-hit like MH well enough, the only two franchises to meet that benchmark on PS2 were Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy.
So no, a new breakout like MH doesn't happen every generation.
Not to mention that Monster Hunter Portable 3 is the highest selling non-Nintendo game of all time. Even including Nintendo games it is pretty high up the list.
Yeah.
I should say that Nintendo kind of breaks this rule, at least on the DS. Mega sellers on GBA were all Pokemon.
But Nintendo is always the exception to the rule.
It's not so much a negative it's just that the Vita is what it is. It's not really competing with the 3DS. Nothing it's doing is going to disrupt the status quo. Vita is treated as what it is, the default second place handheld system. I think in a lot of ways it's similar to a more successful game gear. I mean, I LOVED the game gear. It was a high end system in it's day and it DESTROYED the gameboy visually. But it was never going to come close to competing with the gameboy because it was a battery power hog. It wasn't really a PRACTICAL portable system like the gameboy was.
In the case of the Vita it is simply too expensive to compete with a mass market console, and the price of the memory cards is going to further slow it's growth in sales.
That does not mean it's going to be a bad system, in fact it should be an AWESOME system. It just means that the Vita is dooming itself to second place and so it's going to be treated with the level of respect the runner up gets. It will find it's audience but that's it.
Sony: saving us from the horrors that nintendo might force upon us, one high end niche portable at a time.
You know, pretty much everything you said in this post was applicable to the PS1, PS2, PSP and PS3. Sony knows the score. Specs don't sell systems, games do. And to get games, you need developer support. They fucked up the developer support with the PS3 big time, because it was way too hard to develop for at launch, and they lost some support on PSP due to piracy, but the Vita aims to avoid these two issues. Sony has tried to do everything the developers want, and the launch lineup reflects that.
electroplankton
Banned
Exactly. Time changes indeed, stuff that were popular before (like Brain Training) are not necessarily that popular in these days. I was just mentioning that many of the million sellers on DS are games that wont get sequels, or the franchise has lost much popularity. It is fully possible to create new stuff that becomes very popular. Only time will show
The fact that some DS million sellers won't get any sequel on 3DS should not prevent 3DS to still have a great number of million sellers. Ok, there are no Brain Training, but there is Monster Hunter now. And as Capcom started a new phenomenon on PSP, why not on 3DS? Pokémon, Mario and Animal Crossing are sure bet, then there will be also Super Smash Bros., maybe Donkey Kong Country, and Kirby has always been strong on handhelds. And so on.
DXB-KNIGHT
Member
Reviewers couldn't afford to do Namco Bandai's games.
I'm still with DCharlie on Monster Hunter, I will be surprised if it reaches one million by december. 800 K sounds reasonable taking on count what game are we talking about and even Capcom seem to think the same. Monster Hunter 4 is other story.
Vita discussion bores me to tears. Some months ago 3DS was dead in the water and Nintendo close to becoming third party. And now Vita is going to be so poorly sold that Sony should cancel the launch and focusing on the lucrative market of toasters.
Yawn Give it a year at least before burying it, then you may be able to do it with something solid under your feet.
Vita discussion bores me to tears. Some months ago 3DS was dead in the water and Nintendo close to becoming third party. And now Vita is going to be so poorly sold that Sony should cancel the launch and focusing on the lucrative market of toasters.
Yawn Give it a year at least before burying it, then you may be able to do it with something solid under your feet.
So what you're saying is Sony should give the Vita a 10,000 yen price cut 6 months after launch.
Sony should give it for free. Success granted.
If Vita follows the same trend of PSP, then it might be flat in the first few years but actually gain traction after that. So, what I want to say is, a year is nothing. Give it a few years at least.
electroplankton
Banned
I agree with this.
I mean, this kind of debates comes from one simple fact: people have short memory or, to say in a nicer way, the narrative fallacy, citing Taleb. People don't remember how the things worked in the past, and they tend to make long-term predictions on monthly sales, or even on weekly sales! This is wrong. We have seen that in very short periods things can heavily change, because of many factors probably invisible before or considered ininfluent (who could predict Monster Hunter phenomenon by seeing the sales of the first one on PSP?) or coming out from nowhere (3DS price cut), so just saying "Vita will be dead" (on the same vein as "3DS is dead" last summer) is not worthy of attention.
Vita DOES have problems. It lacks a strong offer from third parties, it has both an internal (PSP) and an external competitor and it costs; but we don't know all games software houses are preparing and multiplatform titles with PS3 might drive first year sales, along with some other titles (Minna no Golf, Dynasty Warriors). 3DS is on another level now, and I do think that such that advantage in term of sales is struggling, but let Vita come out before saying something. Obviously, if it starts to sell 10-15k per week with a 3DS outperforming by a wide margin, ideas will be clearer.
DCcharlie expected it to sell 800k total and not by the end of Dedember. 800k by the end of December sounds a lot more reasonable and wouldn´t have caused this thread to explode.
Only in Sonys wet dreams 3DS was ever dead in the water.
As an aside...
Is this the *earliest* MK release relative to console release? I think most of them were about a year away, weren't they?
I've a nagging feeling Super Circuit and original Super Mario Kart were early, too, but that's going based on the EU release schedule.
I don't want to believe a product can sell purely on image. I'm well aware of the reality, I'm just in denial.
(Not that the Vita *is* pure image, but that's the foundation for your statement)
To do that, it needs an instant multi million hit coming out of nowhere and not possible on the other handheld.
How likely it is ??
As likely as seeing a 300k PS2 franchise becoming a multimillionaire behemoth for the distant second handheld in Japan.
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Super Circuit is the earliest (about 3 months after launch for Japan, 4 in the US and 5 in EU) Super Mario Kart was well over 1 year after launch in all territories (almost 2 in Japan)
It was dead in the water until it got a 40% price cut and a holiday lineup of Mario, Mario Kart, Monster Hunter. Don't think many people would argue with that fact. In fact, without the price cut, they may have struggled to get the numbers they are doing this holiday.
Don't need to argue when even Iwata says the price cut was to avoid the 3DS ending up like the GameCube.
electroplankton
Banned
It missed expectations, but far from death.
hahaha, that is false, don't manipulate. Diehard Nintendo fanboys were the first ones asking what the fuck was Nintendo doing.
electroplankton said:
Yep, 40% pricecut in 6 months. Nintendo was not worried at all, just an small miscalculation.
Yeah, it came out quite soon after I got the system, but I've since remembered that I didn't get the system at launch!
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
May you? I remember a handheld, incidently made by Sony, that would've been buried by many people a year after launch (more so 2 years after launch) and that is Japan's most successful old console in its eighth year on the market.
It had a good launch worldwide even breaking some records in Europe, it fell down a lot early but mostly due to not available systemsellers and the not exactly known for good time for videogamesales -> spring/summer, but it was more a matter of time than anything else in fact 3DS picked up to decent numbers again when OoT released.
Of course the pricedrop and the Monster Hunter announcement helped a lot to speed up the process to have this kind of big numbers again especially in Japan but Mario land and Mario Kart alone would have still pushed the system to do some good numbers (not that great like we are seeing today but good numbers nonetheless) to make those "3DS is dead in the water" comments ridiculous. Games in the Dragon Quest franchise among Kingdom Hearts and Resident Evil (were all already in the work and) would have still helped the system afterwards.
In the end it was mostly just hyperbole by the "gamingpress" the same press that called Wii a failure and fad from the very beginning and repeated this statements every year and of course mostly Sonyfans. In other words just bias.
Then why that drastic moves and pricedrop from Nintendo? While it was likely that games like Mario Kart would have pushed the 3DS again, 3rd parties thought it was a bit too risky and started to push back and delay their projects. They dropped the price to counter that 3rd party hesitation since it would have just made things unnecessarily complicated against their competition and on top of that helped them to secure Monster Hunter exclusivity.
Because obviously the pricedrop to 15k yen was one of the biggest impetus for Capcom to release the game already this year. Obviously this drastic move from Nintendo was taken with the longterm situation in mind and mostly to break Vitas sales potential early on and not because they feared to sell as disastrous as PS3. Apparently it had a great impact in how Vita potential is percepted in a negative way. Mission accomplished.
It's like the wii precedent made everybody cautious.
test_account
XP-39C²
That is exactly what i said
Many of the million sellers wont happen on 3DS because of various reasons, but that doesnt mean that it is possible to make new and popular stuff =)Moor-Angol
Banned
Street Fighter 2 and Dragon Quest V say hello
(and many others...)
sorry, i confused MH3 (Wii) with MHP3 (PSP)
No?
Who said everyone? But all the doom and gloom talk about Nintendo and 3DS doesn´t exactly demonstrate to be in any way or form reasonable.
frankie_baby
Member
Wow lots of info
slaughterking
Member
As it should be. The public information provided by the NPD and the various press releases are nothing compared to Media Create/Enterbrain.
AceBandage
Banned
This is how it was 6 years ago when the DS and PSP launched.
New hardware sparks life into sales which makes discussion more interesting.
FINALFANTASYDOG
Member
[PS3] The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda Softworks) - 104,323
[3DS] Monster Hunter 3G (Capcom) - 497,324
[3DS] Hardware (Nintendo) - 342,232
[3DS] Monster Hunter 3G (Capcom) - 497,324
[3DS] Hardware (Nintendo) - 342,232
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Predictions
[PS3] The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda Softworks) - 87k
[3DS] Monster Hunter 3G (Capcom) - 412k
[3DS] Hardware (Nintendo) - 282k
SEVEN.