1st Course
Member
The gap shrunk to ~6m (last week it was ~7m). It should widen again in the upcoming weeks though as last December had some big hitters (Smash, Yokai Watch 2)
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Sales: Week 48, 2015 (Nov 23 - Nov 29)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
The gap shrunk to ~6m (last week it was ~7m). It should widen again in the upcoming weeks though as last December had some big hitters (Smash, Yokai Watch 2)
I remain bullish on Yokai Watch mobile's sustaining power:
They also keep very good download rankings as well. I suspect they're less-so milking whales with the title, and more a lot of little drops in the bucket from a large number of people given how the monetization pattern has gone, but I could be wrong.
They also keep very good download rankings as well. I suspect they're less-so milking whales with the title, and more a lot of little drops in the bucket from a large number of people given how the monetization pattern has gone, but I could be wrong.
That's a very solid performance. Do we know what changed on the 22nd? That's a big inflection point.
The little speech bubble at the bottom indicates an update.
The update text is:
Version 1.2.0 (Nov 22, 2015)
・新しいイベントの実装
・不具合修正
Which (I realize I'm breaking my own rules here) Google Translates as:
Version 1.2.0 (Nov 22, 2015)
·And implementation of new events
·Bug fixes
So I would say it's that they started adding events to the game. Japanese mobile revenue tends to be tied pretty heavily to events, and games that don't have them have trouble keeping players engaged as well.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
I guess there's basically Monster Strike 3DS & YW2: Buster's update to counter that? I guess we'll see how that goes.
I had a guess it was something like this but I was curious over the scope of the jump as I don't think that big of a jump is common that high to the top outside of the big guns switching places with events. Moving 20 spots in the top 50 is still a considerable bound for any title, especially when it's not achieved such height before. Was wondering if maybe it wasn't some big event that was getting coverage.
Or maybe I am misremembering how much old titles have jumped in the past, got to go looking.
If we take the most extreme jumper, Quiz RPG sometimes falls into the 100-300 range for a while, then jumps up into the top 5, and can still end up as a top 10 grossing game overall for the month.
That's not... standard behavior though.
1st Course
Member
There is a yokai watch update releasing this holidays?
Jon Carter
Member
Yes, which is cool because they could have made it another third version to milk the series even further, but the fact that they refrained from doing so tells me they're trying to make Youkai Watch a long-lasting success.
Right, that seems more like an (extreme) exception than the rule. I think the more interesting thing with this jump is that it seems to have a consistency in its performance (but then its only about half of the data post inflection, so it may just slip back down after enough time) rather than sharp spikes. Step functions rather than sinusoidal movement.
Does Quiz RPG stay in the top 5 for long or is it more (not smooth) gaussian in its performance?
Somewhat. Here's a 1 year chart:
However, with Level-5, I think you're right in that something is a bit different. One of the things that really sticks out is that it's not only stayed in the top grossing parts of the chart, but the top downloads for an unusually long period of time.
Downloads of big games are often like core games at retail in that they have a huge download spike up front, then drop off really quickly, until the publisher does another big ad round that spikes it up for a bit. Yokai Watch performs more like... Yokai Watch in that it sticks around for quite a long time.
Here's the download chart on iOS as an example:
It's possible it's going to keep climbing higher on the back of getting a very significant amount of downloads, which can help stability and also create some very impressive spikes even for games not draining it all out of power users.
One of the reasons that Quiz RPG has its super unusual behavior is it has over 30 million downloads in Japan, but it's been out for so long that basically their entire audience knows it only makes sense to spend money during events, creating these astronomical swings.
There isn't really a consistent monetization incentive to spend money at other times either like some other games manage, but you know, why risk upsetting the golden goose when it's been around for so long? Colopl's other flagship game (White Cat) is much more consistent though.
Edit:
The game recently hit 3 million downloads: https://twitter.com/yokai_punipuni/status/671279231662481409?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
GamesMaya had a second shipment but it was already sold out again. Still, she's receiving the third shipment today Saturday 5th of December.
GamesMaya said:
How much is the second shipment historically for MH
Bruno MB
Member
Capcom announced 2 days ago that they had shipped (including digital) over 2 million units of Monster Hunter X.
According to Media Create, the initial shipment was 1.620.000. If we estimate that eShop sales were about 150.000 (I read here it was over 140.000, I personally have no idea about this because I don't follow eShop rankings), we can guesstimate that Monster Hunter X got an additional shipment of around 250.000 units by Thursday. There should already be available another shipment for the weekend.
For reference, Monster Hunter 4 shipped around 350.000 units during the second week, an amount that wasn't enough to meet demand. Supply issues lasted until its 5th week.
Monster Hunter 4 sell-through:
Week 1 - 94%
Week 2 - 98,5%
Week 3 - 99%
Week 4 - 99,5%
Week 5 - 96,5% (no more supply issues, 97.000 unsold copies)
Please, check your PM folder.
I don't know what's more interesting. That X is rising so fast or that 4G was so low.
#6 is at 300k. Whem it passes that we'll have a clean picture of its digital sales (even with download cards included in them).
Hero of Legend
Member
Are download cards considered to be a limited quantity? You can just print infinite codes for customers as they sell no?
Eolz
Member
So, any PSX announcement that you can see having an impact in Japan? (no need to talk about the ones already known obviously)
A bit worse I think?
I don't really remember, it was still good for a 3DS remake of a game that didn't really need one.
A bit worse I think?
I don't really remember, it was still good for a 3DS remake of a game that didn't really need one.
Ace Combat 7 seems to be a VR game and I'm not sure how strong of a brand it is in general, but if it has a non-VR version, I could see 150-200K.
Ni No Kuni PS3 didn't exactly bowl over the sales world with 171,806 even including the re-release. I imagine repeating that performance wouldn't be too hard though.
Final Fantasy VII's remake looks a lot more impressive than I was expecting, so that could be quite a large game when it comes out in 2018.
I don't think there was anything else remotely meaningful for Japan. It's not like Rez is actually a thing.
leatherhat
Member
Ace Combat? Assault Horizon did 150k first week, 5 did 175k first week. 6 did 73k fw but was xbox exclusive. I'm personally curious to see if the long wait since 6 will cause people to be hungry for a new one of if it been forgotten.
PlayStation®4 players will also be able to get immersed in ACE COMBAT 7’s realism through exclusive features developed specifically for PlayStation®VR
From the press release, so probably not VR exclusive.
It's not, since the PR states that PS4 users get exclusive features thanks to PSVR.
...which means that the game is coming to other platforms. But since this is Japan, it's basically PS4 exclusive XD
Eolz
Member
I would say Ni-Oh could be a nice surprise, but it was already announced obviously.
Repeating Ni No Kuni's PS3 performance might indeed still be pretty good. I guess it was a case of the western version "funding" the sequel. Was it really confirmed it was a PS4 exclusive (and not a timed one)? The wording was a bit weird for many games tonight.
Repeating Ni No Kuni's PS3 performance might indeed still be pretty good. I guess it was a case of the western version "funding" the sequel. Was it really confirmed it was a PS4 exclusive (and not a timed one)? The wording was a bit weird for many games tonight.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Evangelion golf is going to be huge.
Sammy Samusu
Member
The fuck is a "console exclusive debut"?
Refreshment.01
Member
Dragon Quest 8?
It actually did better than generall expectations i think. The game kept charting quite high for various weeks. People were expecting 700-800K, the logic behind this figure was because it released earlier on other mobile devices and at a cheaper price point. It ended up been closer to 900k, possibly a bit above including digital downloads? Maybe someone kind enough could search the actual figure to enlighten us.
Console exclusive during its debut I'm guessing.
No one knows. Its either a badly worded standard exclusive, or its intentional TR-wording to obfuscate the details.
Either way, they are playing fast and loose with their word choice.
One of the lamest ideas platform holders have created haha. I want to know if FFVII is coming to NX or something since I don't want to buy that many consoles haha.
unapersson
Member
I'd assume it means it's console exclusive and not a day one cross platform release.
As far as Japanese games go there were two noteworthy for with the "PS4 Console Debut" thing, which were Ni No Kuni 2 and the Final Fantasy VII remake.
I'll only focus on Ni No Kuni as FFVII debates never end well.
Anyway, that tag more or less implies is coming to other consoles, you could write Xbox One off as Level 5 is yet to release a game for their systems, it'll be odd to release a PS3 game so late in life so, there's sort of one option left for what other console could it land on, given sales of the original Ni No Kuni on the original DS and L5 relationship with Nintendo seems like a safe bet.
Please note, I'm not port begging, just hypothesizing.
I'll only focus on Ni No Kuni as FFVII debates never end well.
Anyway, that tag more or less implies is coming to other consoles, you could write Xbox One off as Level 5 is yet to release a game for their systems, it'll be odd to release a PS3 game so late in life so, there's sort of one option left for what other console could it land on, given sales of the original Ni No Kuni on the original DS and L5 relationship with Nintendo seems like a safe bet.
Please note, I'm not port begging, just hypothesizing.
DriftingSpirit
Member
It is debuting only on that console.
"Debut" implies it may go elsewhere afterward.
Sammy Samusu
Member
It could be either PC or NX, or both. Or nothing at all.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Well the wording we used to have was "Coming first to Z", or "First on...", like with a lot of timed DLC and timed exclusives. But then TR gave us the obfuscated exclusive that isn't exclusive. At some point, I imagine we're going to start reaching the "console* exclusive" because handhelds aren't consoles.
I don't know why we've now reached "console exclusive debut" when "coming first" was clear-cut and obvious in its meaning. Is the debut exclusive to the console? Is the debut console exclusive but also coming out on PC?
Oh well, I expect they'll clarify in the near term and we'll know more. If they don't then I will assume the most obfuscated reading possible.
I left out Ni-Oh since they said to skip the announced games that didn't have much new. Street Fighter V might move 100K units as well if we include those.
It's easiest to understand as "Level-5 has signed an agreement that says when it first releases on console, the only console it will be on is PS4."
This does not rule out it appearing on other consoles later, or even necessarily a non-console platform at the same time.
I'm not sure how "handheld consoles" factor into this, though historically PC has been viable as an option for simultaneous release a la No Man's Sky. That said it's a Japanese game and most of those don't release simultaneously regardless of an agreement existing or not.
DriftingSpirit
Member
What are your thoughts on the FF7 footage?
Eolz
Member
Development seems to be going better than I thought.
Still early though. Combat system seemed closer to XIII, wonder where they're going with that. New artstyle is pretty cool.
For the game itself, I was expecting something more akin to FFX/X-2 in terms of budget and scope, so it raised my sales expectations considerably.
For the PS4, I don't think it's really a change, because I imagine that by the time it releases, Final Fantasy XV, Kingdom Hearts III, and Dragon Quest XI will have attracted pretty much the entire audience for the project, especially in terms of anything beyond a 1-2 week bump with special editions.
While I expect the sales for Ni no Kuni 2 to be vastly lower than FF7R, I could imagine a universe where it sells more consoles to new buyers (instead of special edition purchasers) on the basis of being a more family friendly title. I'm not talking a huge amount either way though.
I'm gonna have to disagree with that. FFVII fans aren't necessarily fans of other FF games and they may not plan on purchasing FFXV. FF has been in decline for many years now so I think there's a large number of VII fans who may pick up a PS4 for the remake, so I see VII Remake being the stronger system seller, by a long shot.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Ace Combat used to do 300-400k iirc but went down to 250k on the 360. Interesting to see how AC7 could perform.
I don't think Ni No Kuni is a perfect representation of what Ni No Kuni 2 could do. The DS SKU sold 600k before the PS3 SKU came out (although they were essentially different games). Nevertheless, NNK2 will be the first to launch on PS4 and perhaps L5's immense success with YW could help the game get more recognition. Does anyone know if Ghibli are still on board?
FFXV 2016
FF7R 2017
KH3 2016-7
DQ11 2016-7
2016-7 are going to be crucial years for the PS4.
I don't think Ni No Kuni is a perfect representation of what Ni No Kuni 2 could do. The DS SKU sold 600k before the PS3 SKU came out (although they were essentially different games). Nevertheless, NNK2 will be the first to launch on PS4 and perhaps L5's immense success with YW could help the game get more recognition. Does anyone know if Ghibli are still on board?
FFXV 2016
FF7R 2017
KH3 2016-7
DQ11 2016-7
2016-7 are going to be crucial years for the PS4.
Eolz
Member
No idea but I wouldn't be surprised, at least as advisors.
Isn't DQ11 confirmed for 2016? I'd put 7R at 17-18, even if it looked good. It was basically a good prototype/demo, but there's still a ton left to do, without even counting polish and QA.
I raise you a (well these are my predictions from years ago for ff and kh)
FFXV 2017
KH3 2018
DQ11 2016
FF7 2019-2020 (was made before I knew it was UE4 and saw the footage today. So dunno. I still think it'll be the last one released of these 4...)
not the most popular predictions
Trailer doesn't credit Studio Ghibli so it doesn't seem as they're working with them that way, Ghibli is still on hiatus anyway.
They're working with Ghibli staff though as the character designer and musician are both long time Ghibli people.
Also don't see how YW success can boost the game, it's not it's similar at all.
They're working with Ghibli staff though as the character designer and musician are both long time Ghibli people.
Also don't see how YW success can boost the game, it's not it's similar at all.