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Media Create Sales: Week 8, 2015 (Feb 16 - Feb 22)

Arzehn

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Mar 29, 2009
2,353
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Code:
PSV     |	2014	|       2015  	|		
week 1	|	75.400	|	58.005	|	Down	23,1
week 2	|	32.016	|	22.327	|	Down	30,3
week 3	|	26.963	|	17.505	|	Down	35,1
week 4	|	23.290	|	15.580	|	Down	33,1
week 5	|	22.246	|	12.392	|	Down	44,3
week 6	|	18.282	|	10.573	|	Down	42,2
week 7	|	18.348	|	11.489	|	Down	37,4
week 8	|	16.363	|	33.525	|	Up     104,8

I wonder why this week it was not posted yet... :)
Vita had a relatively strong March last year, will likely fall further behind last YTD. Depends on how well Digimon (March 12th) and Sword Art Online (March 26th) do.
 

casiopao

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Jan 27, 2013
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for a dead and buried system, it is !
I don't said it is dead and buried though. U urself said that there. Wkkwkwkw.

Seriously though, 30k is not bad especially seeing the current "life" condition but the other previous bad week condition make most of us shift the focus to 3ds falling or PS4 rising from hell lol.

If HyWa can reach a million, DQ should be able to with two platforms and a strong Japanese IP to bolster Japanese sales where HyWa lacked to make up the strength of HyWa in the states.

I'd be rather surprised if HyWa on WiiU WW outsold DQH on PS4/PS3 WW.[/QUOTE

It all depends though. DQ outside of JP is small franchise, and if in JP it sold only around 700k, I don't think it can sold 300k on the west here. HW had the advantage of being Zelda title here so the leg is more guaranteed.
 
The Vita is a system that's nearing the end of its lifecycle and tends to still exist on the basis that there's a combined platform ecosystem of ho-hum performing Sony systems and that there isn't an obvious migration location at present.

It's not going to attract much discussion unless it starts performing unusually for a sustained period of time, namely if it either goes down 45-50%+ or goes up 5-10%+ for quite a while.

It's like how we don't talk about the Wii U anymore.
 

casiopao

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Jan 27, 2013
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440
The Vita is a system that's nearing the end of its lifecycle and tends to still exist on the basis that there's a combined platform ecosystem of ho-hum performing Sony systems and that there isn't an obvious migration location at present.

It's not going to attract much discussion unless it starts performing unusually for a sustained period of time, namely if it either goes down 45-50%+ or goes up 5-10%+ for quite a while.

It's like how we don't talk about the Wii U anymore.
Sadness for both those system, Wii U had quite a number of great exclusives which reviewed great and of course plays greatly too.

While Vita lack big title, it actually had quite a number of middle budget game like falcom support and the number of hunting game.
 

Moor-Angol

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Aug 26, 2005
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2
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45
Japan
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Vita had a relatively strong March last year, will likely fall further behind last YTD. Depends on how well Digimon (March 12th) and Sword Art Online (March 26th) do.
I'm most focused in Minecraft, even if the retail release comes too late


the Value Pack from last week (vita 2000 + 16gb memory) is time period or it will last for long time? this could be a potential "hit" plus migrating PSP userbase




meanwhile 2 days ago another PSP game was released :D
 

Darius

Banned
Nov 22, 2013
942
0
0
In its 4th year and with a clear trend I don´t think there is a lot that can change. This week there was a spike mainly due to GE2BR accompanied with the bundles. But there is a very limited amount of important Ips that have been successful on PSP left that are realistic to happen and you can still use to bruteforce a system shift by simply cutting off the PSP version.

Since they basically played most of their best cards when it comes to software the only substantial option left to inflate the hardware sales is a further revision, to get double- (or even tripple)-dippers on board, a pricedrop to 15k yen would also help a lot, so far they chose to add "value" and bundles instead.

The first 9 months will be down year on year, the last quarter in 2014 was so bad that they will have it quite easy to look less bad in comparison.
 

Eolz

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Jun 1, 2014
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If HyWa can reach a million, DQ should be able to with two platforms and a strong Japanese IP to bolster Japanese sales where HyWa lacked to make up the strength of HyWa in the states.

I'd be rather surprised if HyWa on WiiU WW outsold DQH on PS4/PS3 WW.
I'm aware of that. I was just saying that I think DQH worldwide sales will easily exceed Hyrule Warriors worldwide sales and I'd be surprised if not the case.

Apologies for confusion in my last post.
Eh, I actually wouldn't be surprised. Sure, the userbase is smaller, but Zelda is a lot more popular in the west, and I also think it'll be more of a evergreen title than DQ Heroes.
It will be close in both cases anyway imo.

edit: obviously talking about worldwide, Japan isn't even the same situation.
 

casiopao

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Jan 27, 2013
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What are biggest PSV games this year?
Saga?

Eh, I actually wouldn't be surprised. Sure, the userbase is smaller, but Zelda is a lot more popular in the west, and I also think it'll be more of a evergreen title than DQ Heroes.
It will be close in both cases anyway imo.

edit: obviously talking about worldwide, Japan isn't even the same situation.

Yup this is what I am talking about. Unless Japan pick the slack, It is not going to be that easy to achieve one mill WW. As DQ brand recognition is much lower compared to maybe One Piece or Zelda outside of JP.

Not to forget, with how DQ heroes only had single player so maybe the normal Musou fans who had been used to multiplayer will also think twice before getting the game.(My friend is such case sadly. And he have been following musou for maybe 10 years lol? Since DW3)
 

ZhugeEX

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May 23, 2013
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Not to forget, with how DQ heroes only had single player so maybe the normal Musou fans who had been used to multiplayer will also think twice before getting the game.(My friend is such case sadly. And he have been following musou for maybe 10 years lol? Since DW3)
No one buys Musou for online multiplayer... apart from your friend maybe. Unless you mean local co-op. In which case I agree.

I do think that with the majority of sales coming from Japan and the larger over all install base of PS4 in the west that the game will actually sell decently worldwide with more than 1 million. Especially if shipments in Japan exceed 700k.
 

Yasumi

Banned
Aug 31, 2011
4,413
1
0
these are like 50k sellers, yasumi
tokyo xanadu might be one too
depends on how that plays out
Demon Gaze did pretty well, and they seem to be aiming for a wider market with Gigant. Agreed with Luminous, wishful thinking on my part.
 

Moor-Angol

Banned
Aug 26, 2005
4,504
2
0
45
Japan
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I don't said it is dead and buried though. U urself said that there. Wkkwkwkw.

Seriously though, 30k is not bad especially seeing the current "life" condition but the other previous bad week condition make most of us shift the focus to 3ds falling or PS4 rising from hell lol

switching to PS4, the line-up from May seems very empty especially compared to what is coming in the next weeks (10 titles in just 8 days, yes, ten titles, eight days, from 19 to 26 March)
in the latest weeks we had announcements for both 3DS and Vita (Kunio-kun, Langrisser and DBZ Butoden for 3DS, a lot of drpg for PSV), big or small titles whatever, they had line-up updated
but that's not happening to PS4
actually everything is focused on DQH, FF Type 0 and Bloodborne, but what after that ?
the lack of games could potentially ruin all the good things the above games will do about increasing PS4 userbase ?
seems like the same situation we had at launch : a lot of games and then anything interesting for months, and the lack of software gradually killed the hype about the system
 

Kyoufu

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switching to PS4, the line-up from May seems very empty especially compared to what is coming in the next weeks (10 titles in just 8 days, yes, ten titles, eight days, from 19 to 26 March)
in the latest weeks we had announcements for both 3DS and Vita (Kunio-kun, Langrisser and DBZ Butoden for 3DS, a lot of drpg for PSV), big or small titles whatever, they had line-up updated
but that's not happening to PS4
actually everything is focused on DQH, FF Type 0 and Bloodborne, but what after that ?
the lack of games could potentially ruin all the good things the above games will do about increasing PS4 userbase ?
seems like the same situation we had at launch : a lot of games and then anything interesting for months, and the lack of software gradually killed the hype about the system
Some big games coming in the latter half. MGSV, Persona 5 and probably Minna no Golf. A tad early to call their lineup empty.
 

Moor-Angol

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Aug 26, 2005
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Some big games coming in the latter half. MGSV, Persona 5 and probably Minna no Golf. A tad early to call their lineup empty.
Yes I know, but what I tried to explain is that after a lot of games are gonna be released in the incoming weeks, after Golden Week (beginning of May) PS4 line-up seems empty until summer

and in the latest weeks how many titles were announced for PS4 ?

Sperlunker Z, a F2P game announced one month ago
 

casiopao

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Jan 27, 2013
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No one buys Musou for online multiplayer... apart from your friend maybe. Unless you mean local co-op. In which case I agree.

I do think that with the majority of sales coming from Japan and the larger over all install base of PS4 in the west that the game will actually sell decently worldwide with more than 1 million. Especially if shipments in Japan exceed 700k.
Sorry, yeah what i mean is local co-op as most of my friend and cousins love to play musou together to help grind the chara lol.^_^ Which is my main reason that this game design, i feel is a bit flawed.

switching to PS4, the line-up from May seems very empty especially compared to what is coming in the next weeks (10 titles in just 8 days, yes, ten titles, eight days, from 19 to 26 March)
in the latest weeks we had announcements for both 3DS and Vita (Kunio-kun, Langrisser and DBZ Butoden for 3DS, a lot of drpg for PSV), big or small titles whatever, they had line-up updated
but that's not happening to PS4
actually everything is focused on DQH, FF Type 0 and Bloodborne, but what after that ?
the lack of games could potentially ruin all the good things the above games will do about increasing PS4 userbase ?
seems like the same situation we had at launch : a lot of games and then anything interesting for months, and the lack of software gradually killed the hype about the system
The same problem as Vita and Wii U there.T_T THe game come out at the same time and bammmm big drought coming till who knows when.

Persona 5 on PS3 is also not going to help a lot here. MGS 5 is current gen only right? If yes, that is probably a good software to help PS4. Other, lets hope Tekken and SFV can come out sooner.T_T
 

Led_Zeppelin

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Sep 11, 2013
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Sorry, yeah what i mean is local co-op as most of my friend and cousins love to play musou together to help grind the chara lol.^_^ Which is my main reason that this game design, i feel is a bit flawed.



The same problem as Vita and Wii U there.T_T THe game come out at the same time and bammmm big drought coming till who knows when.

Persona 5 on PS3 is also not going to help a lot here. MGS 5 is current gen only right? If yes, that is probably a good software to help PS4. Other, lets hope Tekken and SFV can come out sooner.T_T
Mgs is also coming on ps3/360 but the difference between versión is non trival, i dont see anyone buying the ps3 versión unless they really don't have money for a ps4.
 

small44

Member
May 13, 2014
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In its 4th year and with a clear trend I don´t think there is a lot that can change. This week there was a spike mainly due to GE2BR accompanied with the bundles. But there is a very limited amount of important Ips that have been successful on PSP left that are realistic to happen and you can still use to bruteforce a system shift by simply cutting off the PSP version.

Since they basically played most of their best cards when it comes to software the only substantial option left to inflate the hardware sales is a further revision, to get double- (or even tripple)-dippers on board, a pricedrop to 15k yen would also help a lot, so far they chose to add "value" and bundles instead.

The first 9 months will be down year on year, the last quarter in 2014 was so bad that they will have it quite easy to look less bad in comparison.
In 2013 vita had Final fantasy remaster but in 2014 it had Phantasy star nova but the game failed this year if there is no Saga in holiday the holiday would be very bad even compared to 2014
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
DQH is cross-gen. Doesn't seem to mean anything as long as it's bundled and promoted accordingly.
Being cross-gen between Sony systems has big impact. Unless you believe being PS3/PS4 multiplatform from being PS4 exclusive has no affect at current and future hw and sw sales on PS4
 

KoopaTheCasual

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Jun 5, 2013
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Being cross-gen between Sony systems has big impact. Unless you believe being PS3/PS4 multiplatform from being PS4 exclusive has no affect at current and future hw and sw sales on PS4
No, that's a silly belief, but so is completely writing off a major title just because it's on PS3 as well. MGS5 will push hardware, it would have pushed more if it was a PS4 exclusive, but that doesn't mean it's won't help the PS4 because a PS3 sku exists.
 

ZhugeEX

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May 23, 2013
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No, that's a silly belief, but so is completely writing off a major title just because it's on PS3 as well. MGS5 will push hardware, it would have pushed more if it was a PS4 exclusive, but that doesn't mean it's won't help the PS4 because a PS3 sku exists.
Hmmm. Disagree.

The trend at the moment is still PS3 version outselling PS4 version.

Where as during the PS3 era the PS3 version was usually exclusive or would outsell the PS2 version which was usually released at a later date.
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
0
0
Hmmm. Disagree.

The trend at the moment is still PS3 version outselling PS4 version.

Where as during the PS3 era the PS3 version was usually exclusive or would outsell the PS2 version which was usually released at a later date.
Disagree that MGSV will push PS4 sales?
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
No, that's a silly belief, but so is completely writing off a major title just because it's on PS3 as well. MGS5 will push hardware, it would have pushed more if it was a PS4 exclusive, but that doesn't mean it's won't help the PS4 because a PS3 sku exists.
I didn't see anyone saying it won't help PS4 because a PS3 SKU exists.

Multiplatform SKUs are big reasons Vita lives.
 

Psycho_Mantis

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Jul 28, 2012
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No, it will push PS4 sales. Just saying it won't have as big an impact on PS4 as it could due to the fact it's on PS3 and PS4 same time release.

(I think I may have read koopsthecasuals post wrong....)
Oh, well I think everyone here agrees with that.
 

KoopaTheCasual

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I didn't see anyone saying it won't help PS4 because a PS3 SKU exists.

Multiplatform SKUs are big reasons Vita lives.
My apologies. I guess I read too far into Takao's post, and thought he was dismissing MGS5 completely. But yes, it's definitely less effective than what it would be as a true exclusive
 

Kyoufu

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I don't think anyone can debate that a cross-gen game would have as much of an impact as a true exclusive. As time goes on I think you'll see Sony and third parties do as much as they can to promote the PS4 versions over PS3.
 
I don't think anyone can debate that a cross-gen game would have as much of an impact as a true exclusive. As time goes on I think you'll see Sony and third parties do as much as they can to promote the PS4 versions over PS3.
Well there's two good reasons to be doing that.

1.) The PS4 versions will look better.

2.) Japanese console game vendors (that target Japan) are actually intractably screwed if the PS4 doesn't take off.

We're sitting at the point where the options are "Do something or exit this business segment."

We see some people definitely considering option two, but there seem to be a fair number that don't want to throw in the towel yet.
 

Vena

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Sep 2, 2014
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Well there's two good reasons to be doing that.

1.) The PS4 versions will look better.

2.) Japanese console game vendors (that target Japan) are actually intractably screwed if the PS4 doesn't take off.

We're sitting at the point where the options are "Do something or exit this business segment."

We see some people definitely considering option two, but there seem to be a fair number that don't want to throw in the towel yet.
Of course, we could ask why they decided to back that horse and not simply pursue 3DS/Mobile rather than throw all their eggs into the PS basket. I feel like this is almost a case of deja vu like with the early days of the PS3... just I don't think the longterm will be as favorable.
 

duckroll

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Of course, we could ask why they decided to back that horse and not simply pursue 3DS/Mobile rather than throw all their eggs into the PS basket. I feel like this is almost a case of deja vu like with the early days of the PS3... just I don't think the longterm will be as favorable.
That doesn't make much sense depending on the publishers we're talking about. There's a huge difference between making 3DS/Mobile games and making AAA console games. I mean, I guess if your question is "why don't Japanese publishers lay off everyone who doesn't want to make smaller scale games and scale down and abandon consoles", then I guess the answer would be the same as "why doesn't Nintendo abandon hardware and go third party" - which would be that it doesn't fit the sort of business they are already in. Many of the companies in Japan who find that they do benefit from just making smaller scale portable games or going full mobile have already done so!
 
That doesn't make much sense depending on the publishers we're talking about. There's a huge difference between making 3DS/Mobile games and making AAA console games. I mean, I guess if your question is "why don't Japanese publishers lay off everyone who doesn't want to make smaller scale games and scale down and abandon consoles", then I guess the answer would be the same as "why doesn't Nintendo abandon hardware and go third party" - which would be that it doesn't fit the sort of business they are already in. Many of the companies in Japan who find that they do benefit from just making smaller scale portable games or going full mobile have already done so!
And on top of that, some of the audiences for those games have shown preferences toward consoles, like with Musou for example.

They can move the franchises if they really want to, but they risk losing a large portion of the audience along the way.

In case some people have trouble imagining this scenario, consider what would happen if Call of Duty: Black Ops 3 released solely on mobile. A lot more gamers in the West have mobile devices than consoles, but instead of following the series to mobile, a large portion of the audience would simply buy Battlefield or another FPS game instead.

If all FPS games went to mobile, you also wouldn't be guaranteed the audience would show up either, as they might pursue a different genre or even a different hobby if the things they liked no longer existed in the way they'd want to play them.

We've even seen the portrait of a company that's done just what you said. Capcom downscaled their console ambitions and ended up bleeding massive amounts of audience and developers, and found that they don't have the skillset to really succeed in mobile yet. Will they eventually complete that transition successfully? Quite possibly, but it will be a very painful process, and it's unknown if they'll ever return to their former success levels. Of course, there was a reason they went down this path (they were steadily having less success in their own arena), but it still ended up where we are today.
 

Vena

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Sep 2, 2014
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That doesn't make much sense depending on the publishers we're talking about. There's a huge difference between making 3DS/Mobile games and making AAA console games. I mean, I guess if your question is "why don't Japanese publishers lay off everyone who doesn't want to make smaller scale games and scale down and abandon consoles", then I guess the answer would be the same as "why doesn't Nintendo abandon hardware and go third party" - which would be that it doesn't fit the sort of business they are already in. Many of the companies in Japan who find that they do benefit from just making smaller scale portable games or going full mobile have already done so!
And on top of that, some of the audiences for those games have shown preferences toward consoles, like with Musou for example.

They can move the franchises if they really want to, but they risk losing a large portion of the audience along the way.

In case some people have trouble imagining this scenario, consider what would happen if Call of Duty: Black Ops 3 released solely on mobile. A lot more gamers in the West have mobile devices than consoles, but instead of following the series to mobile, a large portion of the audience would simply buy Battlefield or another FPS game instead.

If all FPS games went to mobile, you also wouldn't be guaranteed the audience would show up either, as they might pursue a different genre or even a different hobby if the things they liked no longer existed in the way they'd want to play them.

We've even seen the portrait of a company that's done just what you said. Capcom downscaled their console ambitions and ended up bleeding massive amounts of audience and developers, and found that they don't have the skillset to really succeed in mobile yet. Will they eventually complete that transition successfully? Quite possibly, but it will be a very painful process, and it's unknown if they'll ever return to their former success levels. Of course, there was a reason they went down this path (they were steadily having less success in their own arena), but it still ended up where we are today.
Oooh. Good read.

I stand much corrected and much more informed... which, now that I look back, was me not thinking very far ahead of myself in my question.
 
Oooh. Good read.

I stand much corrected and much more informed... which, now that I look back, was me not thinking very far ahead of myself in my question.
I think it's a valid question though.

"Why aren't they just making games on the much more successful platform?" is always a good starting point to explore why the obvious isn't taking place.

The answer usually lies in skillset, demographics, market conditions, fundamental corporate strategy, and/or audience expectations, but it's good to dive more specifically for each series in question since it can tell you a lot about what they're likely to do next and if change is probable.
 

Mario007

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Dec 26, 2011
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And on top of that, some of the audiences for those games have shown preferences toward consoles, like with Musou for example.

They can move the franchises if they really want to, but they risk losing a large portion of the audience along the way.

In case some people have trouble imagining this scenario, consider what would happen if Call of Duty: Black Ops 3 released solely on mobile. A lot more gamers in the West have mobile devices than consoles, but instead of following the series to mobile, a large portion of the audience would simply buy Battlefield or another FPS game instead.

If all FPS games went to mobile, you also wouldn't be guaranteed the audience would show up either, as they might pursue a different genre or even a different hobby if the things they liked no longer existed in the way they'd want to play them.

We've even seen the portrait of a company that's done just what you said. Capcom downscaled their console ambitions and ended up bleeding massive amounts of audience and developers, and found that they don't have the skillset to really succeed in mobile yet. Will they eventually complete that transition successfully? Quite possibly, but it will be a very painful process, and it's unknown if they'll ever return to their former success levels. Of course, there was a reason they went down this path (they were steadily having less success in their own arena), but it still ended up where we are today.
Square would be another example actually. Especially during the Wada years when console titles were actually cancelled or retooled for mobile titles. After the failures of those mobile titles Wada was forced to step away. Funnily enough Matsuda continued this strategy further when he first stepped on as CEO. However, unlike Wada who seemed to be hellbent on making mobile work Matsuda seems to take much more of a "try and fail" approach to the market and it seems he figured out that DQ and FF will not work on mobile as well as consoles.
Still, Mevius kinda nullifies all that and it seems to be a throwback to Wada's era of making "handheld quality titles" for mobile. So I'm not sure what kind of strategy SE is pursing, but then again I doubt they know either.
 

Vena

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Sep 2, 2014
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I think it's a valid question though.

"Why aren't they just making games on the much more successful platform?" is always a good starting point to explore why the obvious isn't taking place.

The answer usually lies in skillset, demographics, market conditions, fundamental corporate strategy, and/or audience expectations, but it's good to dive more specifically for each series in question since it can tell you a lot about what they're likely to do next and if change is probable.
Well I was thinking more along the lines that, given the current capabilities of handhelds, that most console games would all in all transition fine (outside of shooters), just lack the HD luster of the graphics but, on that same note, their budgets would be much reduced as you wouldn't need an army to produce the visuals of today's consoles. Mobile offers an alternative for development for smaller groups in a studio to put out smaller titles of other success or otherwise. Of course, there is an issue (as you mentioned) of audience location and how many gamers of certain franchise or game types are simply not on mobile and don't want to be on mobile/handheld.

Capcom's failure, to me, was more of an issue of short-sighted rushing to grab the golden goose in how they approached mobile as if just throwing money at it and a new studio would immediately generate profits. They have a solid franchise in handhelds and I think they'd have been better served spending their money not on immediately opening a new studio for mobile focus but gradually diversifying into mobile with their stronger IPs. I can't play my MH4U on a phone, wouldn't want to ever do such a terrifying thing, but nothing stop them from having some fun minigames on mobile that could tie in to the game proper or just be standalone distractions. An example of this is the Meowster Hunters in MH4U, its a rock-paper-scissors game with very limited control inputs and would work perfectly as a mobile stand-alone that could tie into the game proper. (That would, of course, be more of a down the road thing when the next handheld has a bit more capability in terms of internet and networking.)

As I see it, with so many publishers/developers throwing their eggs into the Playstation 4 basket, we're going to see more and more studios being unable to survive on smaller sales vs. burgeoning budgets and fatigue, and it would, from my naive point of view, make more sense to put some of those titles onto mobile/handheld where capable and try to foster a new audience than pursue a long-term gambit that seems bleak barring some miracle. Of course I don't mean for them to do it all in one go (again, the Capcom failure) but in a gradual transition of smaller titles making their way to handheld/mobile.

My picture of this revolves, a lot, around how BDefault and how it did perfectly well in Japan despite Square barely caring for the thing and Nintendo having to localize it. Furyu's LoL seems to have done fine too, and early on it felt like the 3DS was simply barren of RPGs as if the audience didn't exist for it and no one wanted to try and find out. There's plenty of room and a healthy userbase to welcome smaller projects on smaller budgets, and all the while studios/developers/publishers can still pursue their console dreams if they wish. (I feel like we're seeing, also, more and more successes on the 3DS from indie devs with moderate budgets and games, as they fill in that middleware ground of cheaper but still sizable titles that has all but been abandoned by full development studios in lieu of consoles.)

I'm curious to learn more on this, and I am sure there are gaps in my logic here as I am not a businessman nor a game developer. I just blow up atoms.
 
Square would be another example actually. Especially during the Wada years when console titles were actually cancelled or retooled for mobile titles. After the failures of those mobile titles Wada was forced to step away. Funnily enough Matsuda continued this strategy further when he first stepped on as CEO. However, unlike Wada who seemed to be hellbent on making mobile work Matsuda seems to take much more of a "try and fail" approach to the market and it seems he figured out that DQ and FF will not work on mobile as well as consoles.
Still, Mevius kinda nullifies all that and it seems to be a throwback to Wada's era of making "handheld quality titles" for mobile. So I'm not sure what kind of strategy SE is pursing, but then again I doubt they know either.
I think that's a bit of a misread on their strategy. To me they never abandoned their mobile strategy - as demonstrable from their sea of mobile announcements and releases - but rather just brought mid-sized handheld games back in the gamut of things they make.

Here's a list of business models Square Enix has recently released games in or has in development:
-AAA Retail: Tomb Raider 10, Final Fantasy XV, Kingdom Hearts 3, Just Cause 3, Hitman 6, Deus Ex 4
-PC F2P: Nosgoth, Lords of Vermillion MOBA, Gods & Generals, Triad Wars
-Downloadable Games: Lara Croft TOO (haha get it?), Life is Strange
-Smaller Scale Console Retail: Dragon Quest Heroes, Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD, Final Fantasy Type-0 HD
-Console F2P: Spelunker Z
-MMO: Final Fantasy XIV, Dragon Quest X
-Handheld: Final Fantasy Explorers, Bravely Second, SaGa, Theatrhythm
-Arcade: Dissidia: Final Fantasy, School of Ragnarok
-Mobile: Final Fantasy Legends, G-Bike, 3592e, Million Arthur 2, Mevius, Heavenstrike Rivals, Hitman Go, Hitman Sniper, Schoolgirl Strikers, Dragon Quest Monsters Super Light, Bravely Archive, Final Fantasy Agito, Arcadia no Aoki Miko

Beyond this they have two cloud gaming services and a crowdfunding service.

They're basically trying to do what EA historically did, which was be on every possible platform and in every possible business model. They were a bit narrower in years past, but they decided to make less AAA games (several appeared canceled both in Japan and the West) and distribute those to other business models which we see appearing more prominently again.

Well I was thinking more along the lines that, given the current capabilities of handhelds, that most console games would all in all transition fine (outside of shooters), just lack the HD luster of the graphics but, on that same note, their budgets would be much reduced as you wouldn't need an army to produce the visuals of today's consoles. Mobile offers an alternative for development for smaller groups in a studio to put out smaller titles of other success or otherwise. Of course, there is an issue (as you mentioned) of audience location and how many gamers of certain franchise or game types are simply not on mobile and don't want to be on mobile/handheld.
Yes, exactly. It's the audience expectation (and to an extent, developer expectation) driving this.

Like Square Enix decided to focus more on Final Fantasy XIV and mobile games, and it saw a lot of the people who used to make SaGa game - and were making them at the end of the DS era - leave the company and join a tiny handheld studio in order to make a game like SaGa again. Of course, now Square Enix is actually doing that themselves as well, but that was mostly likely untrue when these people first left.

We also see Koei Tecmo struggling to make a mobile success, even though they consider it their #1 priority, since the people they hired are primarily skilled at console game development. They've had some success on handhelds as well as that's a similar skill set, but not 100% the same.

Capcom's failure, to me, was more of an issue of short-sighted rushing to grab the golden goose in how they approached mobile as if just throwing money at it and a new studio would immediately generate profits. They have a solid franchise in handhelds and I think they'd have been better served spending their money not on immediately opening a new studio for mobile focus but gradually diversifying into mobile with their stronger IPs. I can't play my MH4U on a phone, wouldn't want to ever do such a terrifying thing, but nothing stop them from having some fun minigames on mobile that could tie in to the game proper or just be standalone distractions. An example of this is the Meowster Hunters in MH4U, its a rock-paper-scissors game with very limited control inputs and would work perfectly as a mobile stand-alone that could tie into the game proper. (That would, of course, be more of a down the road thing when the next handheld has a bit more capability in terms of internet and networking.)
Actually Capcom's original strategy was a lot like what you suggested.

Almost all of their mobile games were done by outsourcing studios and were kind of hollow titles that tried to tread on brand strength instead of the strength of the product in and of itself. They even had a conference where they had announced 13 games like this at once, but ended up canceling some as a lot of the initial ones bombed.

Opening that new mobile/pc online studio was a reaction to their failures through the original strategy in a bid to try and increase game quality on mobile.

I realize a lot of mobile games probably seem quite awful to many GAF posters regardless of what they are, but the audience on mobile actually does have distinct tastes and preferences on what they do and don't find fun, and Capcom was definitely failing that taste test.

However, I think your first sentence overall is very correct, and not just for mobile. Capcom has very frequently been a business that tried to find huge profits as soon as humanly possible instead of aiming to build a solid sustainable business. This is why we got 12,000 versions of Street Fighter II, tons of other re-releases and half assed follow-ups, and a general decline in franchise quality as they tried to rush out games and move up release dates for business reasons instead of worrying about the quality of their products.

They handheld their staffing procedures in a similar manner and it caused a lot of their top staff to leave, and when they left, they took a lot of other top staff with them, leaving them with a shortage of both talent and good business leaders.

Capcom changed up their console strategy several times (internal games, then external new IPs and internal existing franchises, then external existing IPs and new internal franchises), and as all those started failing, they tried to switch to the 3DS (where a lot of their games failed again despite some successes), then external mobile games (which mostly failed), and now they're at internal mobile games and internal f2p games.

Given each of these models often take a different skill set, and Capcom never sticks around on one business model long enough anymore to actually get good at one, I wouldn't be shocked if they run into more trouble in the future.

As I see it, with so many publishers/developers throwing their eggs into the Playstation 4 basket, we're going to see more and more studios being unable to survive on smaller sales vs. burgeoning budgets and fatigue, and it would, from my naive point of view, make more sense to put some of those titles onto mobile/handheld where capable and try to foster a new audience than pursue a long-term gambit that seems bleak barring some miracle. Of course I don't mean for them to do it all in one go (again, the Capcom failure) but in a gradual transition of smaller titles making their way to handheld/mobile.)
Oh, no, I think that for many studios you're correct, and I actually do think we see that happening. Just look at the listing of Square Enix's games above and you'll see they're trying to find business models they can use in case one of the business models they're in falls apart, with a bias toward the business models they think they're most likely to find success in.

We certainly see Sega making huge moves toward mobile and digital, Koei Tecmo has noted it's one of their goals, and Namco is already a big mobile publisher (I think they are the #4th highest grossing in Japan if I remember that App Annie chart correctly). Even Falcom has a new mobile division.

There are some developers who have decided to straight up ignore these possibilities though, but for some of them the risk of failing on anything is too great to risk doing anything but what they know (see Nippon Ichi).

What the PS4 offers though is a business model they feel comfortable in and have had success in, and thus something they sincerely hope will survive. It also offers a place to put games they know will make money so they can take experimental risks elsewhere.

My picture of this revolves, a lot, around how BDefault and how it did perfectly well in Japan despite Square barely caring for the thing and Nintendo having to localize it. Furyu's LoL seems to have done fine too, and early on it felt like the 3DS was simply barren of RPGs as if the audience didn't exist for it and no one wanted to try and find out. There's plenty of room and a healthy userbase to welcome smaller projects on smaller budgets, and all the while studios/developers/publishers can still pursue their console dreams if they wish. (I feel like we're seeing, also, more and more successes on the 3DS from indie devs with moderate budgets and games, as they fill in that middleware ground of cheaper but still sizable titles that has all but been abandoned by full development studios in lieu of consoles.)
However, with these two examples, I think we're still in the kind of arena where success on almost any platform is plausible. Bravely Default did around 400K in Japan if we include the re-release and around ~320K-ish IIRC if we don't. That's not a hugely unattainable number on Vita and it's unlikely to be comically huge on PS4. When we look at Legend of Legacy we only have to hit 70K sales, which is very easily achievable on PlayStation consoles or the Vita.

When looking to move to a more successful platform with a better future, the types of games publishers are likely to look at are Puzzle & Dragons, Monster Strike, or Yokai Watch, which are new series that managed to take off for the stars despite not being from an existing license or major series. Those are the types of games that show there's huge success to be had.

If Bravely Default and Legacy of Legend are the bar third parties need, then Freedom Wars and Lord of Apocalypse show the Vita as a sun-filled land of promises.
 

Vena

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Thank for all that food for thought, most of it I don't think there's a need for quoting.

Given each of these models often take a different skill set, and Capcom never sticks around on one business model long enough anymore to actually get good at one, I wouldn't be shocked if they run into more trouble in the future.
Isn't this already written in the winds, so to speak?

If Bravely Default and Legacy of Legend are the bar third parties need, then Freedom Wars and Lord of Apocalypse show the Vita as a sun-filled land of promises.
Statistically, I don't know if I'd be so keen on that statement (about a sun-filled land of promise) since on the one hand you have a population of 18 million vs. 3 million, unless you have an absurdly polar audience in either case (and to some extent, the Vita is a very polar audience but I think we've seen that the 3DS has an audience that can go all sorts of directions). The Vita can and does enjoy its handfuls of >100k sellers but if I were to look at it in an analytical sense (as I often do) I would want to put my titles on the larger audience. Its simply statistically more inviting. (Also I don't know if we can statistically disentangle if/how well BD and LoL would have done on the Vita from how they did on the 3DS. All we have is post-priori knowledge of the end result, bloated with obviously bloated population statistics between the 3DS and Vita.)

Of course, since the Vita is a very polar island, there are some titles that simply make more sense to be put there but in the general sense I don't think its all that promising. Even with the kickback of the possible PS4-port of any title going to Vita to bolster the possible audience, the 3DS alone still towers above both (in Japan in particular). Certain sets of genre and titles, I think, make perfect sense to be on the Vita or on the consoles, though, that's just how those games are best played and most preferably consumed.
 

Moor-Angol

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We see some people definitely considering option two, but there seem to be a fair number that don't want to throw in the towel yet.

that's because PS4 doesn't have a solid line-up yet

RE:R2, FF Type 0, BloodBorne, Deception IV update, Disgaea 5, One Piece Musou 3, SK:Estival Vs are all released in 8 days while all those games could have covered 2, maybe 3 entire months...

I remember last December I was talking with some coworkers, they were asking me if I was planning to buy PS4 on winter holidays and I answered "No, cause actually not so much games, it's not yet a worth in my opinion" and they agreed with me, showing a little disappointment for that situation cause they bought PS4 at launch (and they were both waiting for DQH)

I think BloodBorne and especially Type 0 could be the first turning point for PS4, considering they are exclusive.
Let's see what it will happen!
 
Isn't this already written in the winds, so to speak?
Well, we haven't seen their internal mobile games come out yet, or their f2p console titles. While history doesn't suggest great things, when someone takes a new business model I don't like to write them off until they're actually failing.

Statistically, I don't know if I'd be so keen on that statement (about a sun-filled land of promise) since on the one hand you have a population of 18 million vs. 3 million, unless you have an absurdly polar audience in either case (and to some extent, the Vita is a very polar audience but I think we've seen that the 3DS has an audience that can go all sorts of directions). The Vita can and does enjoy its handfuls of >100k sellers but if I were to look at it in an analytical sense (as I often do) I would want to put my titles on the larger audience. Its simply statistically more inviting. (Also I don't know if we can statistically disentangle if/how well BD and LoL would have done on the Vita from how they did on the 3DS.)

Of course, since the Vita is a very polar island, there are some titles that simply make more sense to be put there but in the general sense I don't think its all that promising. Even with the kickback of the possible PS4-port of any title going to Vita to bolster the possible audience, the 3DS alone still towers above both (in Japan in particular). Certain sets of genre and titles, I think, make perfect sense to be on the Vita or on the consoles, though, that's just how those games are best played and most preferably consumed.
Sorry if I was unclear, it was supposed to be an absurdum comment.

I think there are reasons to make the argument that the 3DS seems more promising (Nintendo will make another handheld while Sony very well might not, there are a lot more high selling games on the 3DS, the 3DS audience is much larger, the 3DS audience has bought a fairly wide variety of games compared to what has sold on Vita, we've seen a new IP reach incredible heights on the 3DS as well strong performances out of a variety of niche series), but I feel the games listed in particular are actually not amazing examples of why you'd want to go all in on the 3DS.

To be more specific, Bravely Default was the new JRPG series from the company that publishes Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest and was trying to appeal to people who bought millions of copies of old FF games like FF5 and FF6. It's even full of Final Fantasy jobs and monsters that fit well in the FF universe (or were even actually FF bosses). There's a ton of brand strength behind the game despite the fact it's in theory a new IP. It's kind of like how Destiny is a new IP, but it's built on the formula of Borderlands, built by the developers of Halo, and published by what was then the biggest publisher in the industry. A ton of developers could never have that.

For Legend of Legacy, its sales are so low that it's only a great result for FuRyu. It'd probably be a stronger argument to stay away than it would be to come on board unless you're a company like Idea Factory where that kind of sales volume from a no name publisher seems really attractive.

that's because PS4 doesn't have a solid line-up yet

RE:R2, FF Type 0, BloodBorne, Deception IV update, Disgaea 5, One Piece Musou 3, SK:Estival Vs are all released in 8 days while all those games could have covered 2, maybe 3 entire months...

I remember last December I was talking with some coworkers, they were asking me if I was planning to buy PS4 on winter holidays and I answered "No, cause actually not so much games, it's not yet a worth in my opinion" and they agreed with me, showing a little disappointment for that situation cause they bought PS4 at launch (and they were both waiting for DQH)

I think BloodBorne and especially Type 0 could be the first turning point for PS4, considering they are exclusive.
Let's see what it will happen!
Yes, publishers are certainly hoping that things turn around this year between all the titles that come out.

I suspect that's why many of them are there already, since they realize that if there are no games on the system, it's never going to sell, and that if they don't show up, Sony certainly doesn't have the first party strength to do the work for them.
 

Moor-Angol

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Yes, publishers are certainly hoping that things turn around this year between all the titles that come out.

I suspect that's why many of them are there already, since they realize that if there are no games on the system, it's never going to sell, and that if they don't show up, Sony certainly doesn't have the first party strength to do the work for them.
I agree with you.
And seeing all those publishers hoping for a home market come back really makes me thinking positive; I hope jpn publishers can find again their inspiration and publish original games has they always did in the past (how much I miss the pinnacle they reached during PS2 era...)