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Merrill Lynch says: PS3 will KILL Sony - Huge costs for MASSIVE DAMAGE.
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Not just deju vu dating back to spring, ut deja vu back to PS2 launch as well.
Back then, the PS2 was supposed to cost them $600 to make, would retail for $500, and would bankrupt the company.
We all know how that turned out.
Back then, the PS2 was supposed to cost them $600 to make, would retail for $500, and would bankrupt the company.
We all know how that turned out.
Barry Lightning
Banned
does this assume sony will not re-design the console, cut costs and lower retail price within 2 years?
krypt0nian
Banned
Stinkles said:
I also love that they think they are better financial analysts than Merrill Lynch. No matter what the conclusions for whichever console.
Barry Lightning
Banned
Ignatz Mouse said:
can someone pull up some analysts prediction for ps2? i'd like to see how on point (or off) these ducds are
TheKingsCrown
Banned
krypt0nian said:
Its true. But the other thing that is true for analysts of this industry is that many times they are wrong because they don't understand what drives t. So all predictions, obviously, must be taken with a grain of salt.
Mark Gonzales
Banned
Let's see. I'm not math wiz. They would need to lose $100 a console for the first 60,000,000 sold and never recoup any of that money back off software , peripherals, and royalties and plus we all know the cost to produce the console will never go down. This makes alot of sense :lol .
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
Well, I remember that in 2002, SO many analysts predicted that Nintendo would have get out of The Home System's business to become Third Party Developer. And they're wrong, absolutely wrong.
So, I think that what Linch said have not to be understimated, but not surevaluated as well.
Sony is not ready to fail. Not today. Not tomorrow. Not in one year.
But they have to be careful, because with all these costs and all these tendace to make profits only in the second half of PS3's Lifecicle is dangerous. VERY dangerous.
Sony is mortgaging his future: they risk too much for a company that has fired 10.000 people and closed a lot of plants only two years ago and they hope too much from the Playstation's brand. Even if is one of the best and most profitable brand of the world, they cannot hope to skip the red figures only with this section: they have to move their ass and make something strong and concrete with their Hi-Fi's section too.
This means create and innovate: not easy ? They have an advantage that they are not using against LG, D-Boss, Techline, and all these underbrands: the name Sony.
Stop sell things at the double of the concurrence and let's do something clever. My God, they have copied almost all from Nintendo, but the only things they should do: make profits from day one. And this means re-evaluate the strategy and overall make a OWN strategy, because don't say me that Sony is follow his own path: NO.
They have fear of Microsoft, and they're doing what Microsoft want: go in an area that could a micidial trap. Never, NEVER do what the ennemy want. They are concorrentiate Microsoft because they have fear of them, and this is a big, ENOURM mistake.
Think an the original Playstation Sony: think why the PS has been so successfull and think why your strategy is bad: price, difficult to develop, expensive to develop, no innovatons, Blu-ray proprietary disc format and no profitts until 2 years minimum. And this is only the tip of the iceberg.
This is not the Sony that created the Walkman anymore. Anymore.
So, I think that what Linch said have not to be understimated, but not surevaluated as well.
Sony is not ready to fail. Not today. Not tomorrow. Not in one year.
But they have to be careful, because with all these costs and all these tendace to make profits only in the second half of PS3's Lifecicle is dangerous. VERY dangerous.
Sony is mortgaging his future: they risk too much for a company that has fired 10.000 people and closed a lot of plants only two years ago and they hope too much from the Playstation's brand. Even if is one of the best and most profitable brand of the world, they cannot hope to skip the red figures only with this section: they have to move their ass and make something strong and concrete with their Hi-Fi's section too.
This means create and innovate: not easy ? They have an advantage that they are not using against LG, D-Boss, Techline, and all these underbrands: the name Sony.
Stop sell things at the double of the concurrence and let's do something clever. My God, they have copied almost all from Nintendo, but the only things they should do: make profits from day one. And this means re-evaluate the strategy and overall make a OWN strategy, because don't say me that Sony is follow his own path: NO.
They have fear of Microsoft, and they're doing what Microsoft want: go in an area that could a micidial trap. Never, NEVER do what the ennemy want. They are concorrentiate Microsoft because they have fear of them, and this is a big, ENOURM mistake.
Think an the original Playstation Sony: think why the PS has been so successfull and think why your strategy is bad: price, difficult to develop, expensive to develop, no innovatons, Blu-ray proprietary disc format and no profitts until 2 years minimum. And this is only the tip of the iceberg.
This is not the Sony that created the Walkman anymore. Anymore.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Barry Lightning said:
YES! Lets be honest even ****ing dumbass ML doesn't know that Sony will be taking the EE+GS out of the PS3 next year.
That alone should save Sony millions of dollars. But do you think ML realize that this will happen? Hell no!
Tyrone Slothrop
Banned
sometimes i think sony should have just tried to stick with the ps2 for a few more years -- it could only be then when a console like the ps3 could launch somewhat cheaper, or they could revise their next gen strategy altogether.
For those of you thinking Sony would break even after a year, wouldn't that be assuming PS3 would sell the same amount that PS2 did in its first year? Long lines and selling out at launch is one thing, going for a full year with PS2's steam is another.
sonycowboy said:
found the japanese news
http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20061110-00000032-fis-biz
「株式」 ソニー(6758)－個別銘柄ショートコメント
*13:10JST <6758> ソニー 4670 -70
3日続落で25日線を割り込んでいる。メリルリンチでは業績予想を下方修正し、目
標株価を4700円から4000円に引き下げている。ＰＳ３事業の5年間営業損益累計は
7389億円の赤字と予想。
(FISCO)
（フィスコ） - 11月10日13時12分更新
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
rage1973 said:
Schwab ? Christian Schwab ?
I stopped reading there. Do some of these people not understand that these brokerage houses don't give a rat's ass about video games other than the business aspect of it? I've worked in several brokerage houses and met the video game analysts -- they don't play video games. They don't care who wins or loses. They try to predict who will be the good investments and who will be the bad ones. That's all.
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
VALIS said:
That's why they are more objective then gamers. A lot more.
Wrong. 6.5 billion loss over 5 years would devastate the company. If this happened their market cap would be reduced to at least half of what it is currently. They are currently running on heavy debt and if not for the low central bank rate in Japan they would incur even more cost of paying interest. Look at a company llike GM which still sells the most amount of cars but they are taking a loss each quarter. That company is worth a fraction of what it was beforebigfatgameguy said:
fortified_concept
Banned
Mithos Yggdrasill said:
The only PS3 problem is its price. That's it. You're really trying too hard to find problems. Sony has learned from previous mistakes they just did a new one by "sparing no expenses" trying to have as many features on PS3 as they could. PS3 development is actually easier than PS2 which console developers supported much more than the all other consoles combined
As for Cell and Bluray some of the most expensive PS3 parts Sony didn't add them to PS3 out of "fear of Microsoft" like you imply they did because they thought it was better for the console and the company. Actually MS's decisions seem to be more affected by Sony's strategies than the opposite. The only Sony decision that you could say is affected by MS's strategy is RSX but that actually saved Sony money.
emomoonbase
I'm free 2night after my LARPing guild meets.
Speculators suck and are never right. I mean look at all the BS crap before this. $1000 ps3's, ds would play GC discs, etc. They got nothing but smoke to blow out there ass when it comes to particulars.
HyperionX said:
But it's not bias. What reason would they have to be biased against Sony? It's a belief by the people there who handle the vg industry that Sony is a bad investment. They just want to make the moneyz by predicting stuff accurately, that's as far as their bias goes.
VALIS said:
I also want to add that this a sell-side report. In layman terms, it's meant for the public. ML's buy-side analysts, which are analysts that help make decisions on ML investments, may have a totally different take on Sony. These reports are only available to ML traders, investment managers, etc. Conflicting findings are often a norm, so no one should get upset when ML puts out a report like this because they just as well could have distributed a positive internal report.
charlequin
Banned
HyperionX said:
They said that the system would cost $900 to manufacture, which at this point is pretty much established as fact or close thereto. (And, I'll add, which people have already corrected in this very thread.)
You still haven't answered the question: what possible source of bias do ML have? It's true that analysts are not necessarily reliable because the video game market is not understood well enough to consistently predict and analysts often make predictions without a full understanding of the field or a knowledge of certain intangible qualities. But a bias, the way that some of the posters I'm looking at upthread from here are biased? Why, because the Merrill Lynch building takes out its GameCube and gets in rounds of Smash Bros. after everyone went home? No. Not only are different people contributing to ML's conclusions every time it analyzes video game sales, but it's also in their economic best interests to adjust their parameters every time they're proven wrong, because the way they make money is to guess right.
Paid In Full
Member
I put more faith in the projections of objective financial analysts than in the fact that 50 or 500 or 5 000 people are lining up to buy on launch day. Launch day is 24 hours - the success or failure of PS3 and Sony is going to happen over the course of the next 3+ years.
VALIS said:
in that case perhaps they should learn a bit more about the peculiarities of the console market so they don't look so silly. Gaf aren't financial experts but they picked holes in that analysis well enough.
most of my exposure to Analyst reports they nearly always seem to be telling you what they think you want to know
rage1973 said:
That prediction happened before the blue laser shortage and the inclusion of the HDD. Going by currently knowledge, it would be more like $1000 each. They only thing that went right for ML was that Sony hit a rough patch and it sort of made their prediction right, but that was luck. At the moment of prediction, they were wrong. Unfortunately, they seem to have taken their own flawed predictions to heart and projected an even more absurd prediction. Other not so biased financial analysts have already predicted profitability by late 2007 for the PS3, so ML is way outside consensus predictions.
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
rage1973 said:
Sorry, no. Christian Schwab is in the Departement of Mathematik at the ETH Zürich.
Musashi Wins!
FLAWLESS VICTOLY!
Moderation Unlimited said:
I need a tinfoil hat when I read the forums.
Moderation Unlimited
Banned
charlequin said:
They sell small, as well as large cap, MS financial products....because this is a sell-side report, it's message is for the general public (generally small cap investors) may be somewhat spun to emphasize certain points and deemphasize others...all in the name of selling products that they offer. They, AFAIK, don't offer Sony financial products. If they can make money from selling MS financial products but none from selling non-existent Sony financial products...then how can they not be biased, at least on that level and to this particular audience (indirectly advertising for their clients).
nelsonroyale
Member
I predict zune will kill microsoft and the wii name will kill nintendo
rage1973 said:
That's an appeal to authority and its dead wrong. There are actually other financial companies that disagrees with ML. They're the only ones posting outlier numbers. And their serious tenuous claims like $350 for a Bluray drive makes it obvious they've screwed up somewhere.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Dante said:
Someone forgot to tell these guys they were doomed.
Whats wrong with you? One the reasons for the losses is sales on each system sold at a lost
That picture is DEATH not doom but DEATH
Musashi Wins! said:
Agreed. People, people. This is a prediction. ML are not biased. I do believe that they are wrong, but they are not biased.
The PS3, like the 360, don't follow traditional console business models. And as such, in some quarters, they look a little.... worrying. I'm not saying that this is the reason for ML's numbers..... I'm just saying is all.
fortified_concept
Banned
Smiles and Cries said:
Sony really doesn't stand a chance. If people buy PS3s like crazy Sony is going bankrupt, if they don't PS3 is doomed.
Busty said:
Biased or not ML's Sony predictions have, are and will always be pathetic.