There's a bunch of predictions from other analysts at the link.
2017 Predictions:
Before people get excited for #8, I feel I should note that Bethesda has already said they won't have another console game for years, and that TES6 isn't even in meaningful development yet. They've implied they're working on a new IP first as far as AAA console games go. We might see their second mobile title in 2017 however, so if that's Elder Scrolls based, Pachter could be technically correct.
He also graded himself for last year's predictions:
2017 Predictions:
Source: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-12-20-what-to-expect-in-the-games-biz-for-2017Michael Pachter said:This year:
1.) PS4 price goes to $199. I think Sony is intent upon keeping Microsoft in distant second, and expect a price cut for standard PS4 (slim) to $199 before year-end 2017.
2.) No Rockstar games other than Red Dead Redemption. Rockstar hasn't released a "new" game since 2013, and Red Dead will consume all of its efforts in 2017.
3.) Call of Duty returns to glory with a Modern Warfare title from Sledgehammer. Although I think that they want to establish the Advanced Warfare brand as a franchise, the relatively poor performance of Infinite Warfare suggests to me that Activision has to get its act together and bring fans back into the fold.
4.) Super Mario Run is a huge hit out of the gate, and interest peters out by June. Notwithstanding the brand's popularity, Nintendo is making a strategic error with its "free-to-start" business model, and I expect sales to drop off relatively quickly.
5.) Pokemon Go drops out of the top 10 in every country with a population greater than 20 million. The game was fun, but there's only so many Pokemon to capture.
6.) The Switch is sold out through September. The console looks fun, the price appears to be right, and I expect demand to be high. If there is a lot of third-party support (games, not merely labels), I think demand remains high.
7.) The Xbox Scorpio is priced at $399. This might not be low enough, particularly if PS4 Pro drops before holiday 2017, but Microsoft has to price competitively or fall farther behind.
8.) The next Elder Scrolls installment comes out, the next Half Life installment does not. I think Bethesda is close, and think that Valve is not. However, I'd like to be half wrong on this one.
Before people get excited for #8, I feel I should note that Bethesda has already said they won't have another console game for years, and that TES6 isn't even in meaningful development yet. They've implied they're working on a new IP first as far as AAA console games go. We might see their second mobile title in 2017 however, so if that's Elder Scrolls based, Pachter could be technically correct.
He also graded himself for last year's predictions:
Michael Pachter said:Last year's prediction report card:
Sony will abandon the Vita - A-. It looks like it has been discontinued, but no official announcement. No appearance at E3, either.
Miitomo will be a commercial flop - A+. Not a word on revenue in over a year, and few words about it at all.
Nintendo's second mobile game will be a success, predicted to be a Super Mario platformer-B+. Pokemon Go is not a Nintendo game, but was a huge success. Super Mario Run is its second game (by a hair), and is off to a very good start.
NX will not come in 2016 - A+.
Activision's first joint effort with King will be a Skylanders driving game-Incomplete. We don't know yet, no joint efforts yet.
The Assassin's Creed movie will be a modest success - A. It's looking really good based upon the trailers.