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[sonycowboy]

http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/07/29/news_6130057.html

Bill Gates said he's happy with the Xbox 360--even though some detractors claim the system is slower than the PS3.


REDMOND, Wash.--In a meeting with financial analysts at Microsoft's headquarters, company head honcho Bill Gates opined about the upcoming battle between his company's Xbox 360 and Sony's PlayStation 3.


"Our view is basically: We've got a Ferrari. They've got a Ferrari," Gates said in a question-and-answer session Thursday. "Our Ferrari is leaving the starting line substantially before their Ferrari is, and, in most races, that's a very nice thing."

Microsoft's Xbox 360 is due to go on sale this holiday season in the United States, Europe, and Japan. Meanwhile, Sony's PlayStation 3, with its powerful Cell processor, is slated to arrive next spring.

Gates noted that the last time around [when the PlayStation 2 was released ahead of the Xbox], Microsoft was beaten to the punch and said overall sales suffered as a result.

"We tried it the other way last time," Gates said.

Robbie Bach, the Microsoft senior vice president who heads up the Xbox, said he doesn't see Sony having a demonstrable advantage with its hardware.

"They're going to be a little faster in a few areas; we're going to be a little faster in a few areas," Bach said. "The net result from a hardware perspective is going to be kind of a toss-up."

A Sony representative was not immediately available for comment.

Bach said that Microsoft should also benefit from greater developer support this time around, saying the company's easy developer tools are its "secret sauce." Developers have expressed some concern about the escalating costs of developing console video games.

Bach said there are 160 games in development for the Xbox 360, with 25 to 40 expected to be released this year, including around 15 at launch.

The analysts got to see a demo of one of those games in the works: Project Gotham Racing 3, which is being published by Microsoft.

However, the analysts didn't get to drive the console for themselves. The one Xbox 360 console on display was underneath a thick plastic display case, a disappointment to more than a few in the Wall Street crowd.

 

[DCharlie]

"However, the analysts didn't get to drive the console for themselves. The one Xbox 360 console on display was underneath a thick plastic display case, a disappointment to more than a few in the Wall Street crowd."

oh noes, they'll have to take solice in their 6-7 figure basic pay cheques

I think i feel a support group coming on ...

 

[Barnimal]

i'm glad you made this topic. this is how i see it. picture this. project gotham 3, if i am correct looks amazing and it is running on ONE FUCKING CORE. right? if i'm wrong say so but basically they are using the very best of old know how on new machinery. Its only a matter of time before someone comes along a figures out how to get all 3 cores going. he sooner that happens, the better for MS. They have a years time to do this. If they pull it off with a cheaper machine to boot and the people behind it...the gamers behind it, nothing is to say they cant take #1.

 

[Striek]

The lack of MS actually coming out and trying to say their console is more powerful that makes it very easy to assume they realise its not.

Spoiler

I'm kidding! MS are just good guys that don't want to BS their customers, they just tell it like it is.

I think MS is placing too much emphasis on a 6-9month lead.

 

[temp]

Nintendo's in the trunk looooooooooooooooool

 

[Barnimal]

Nintendo's in the trunk looooooooooooooooool

i disagree

"I think MS is placing too much emphasis on a 6-9month lead."

i think they are praying that someone figures out how to get all 3 cores working on THEIR machine first. if someone does it on ps3 first assuming it hasnt been done already, unless they have a nice lead before the ps3 launch, they could be screwed. If someone wether it be an MGS game or a 3rd party exclusive 360 developer figures out how to truly tap out the 360 or begin to anyway, MS will be in a GREAT position. Cheap hardware compared to the competition, a great name for themselves, and software that looks as good if not better than what sony is doing.

 

[xexex]

"They're going to be a little faster in a few areas; we're going to be a little faster in a few areas," Bach said. "The net result from a hardware perspective is going to be kind of a toss-up."

QFT (quote for thruth)

 

[Doom_Bringer]

QFT (quote for thruth)

Sony are such a bunch of idiots! They wasted years and billions of dollars developing the cell only to get their ass handed to them by a upgraded up powerpc cpu. good job ms!

 

[Kleegamefan]

:lol

 

[sangreal]

Sony are such a bunch of idiots! They wasted years and billions of dollars developing the cell only to get their ass handed to them by a upgraded up powerpc cpu. good job ms!

They spent years and billions on the EE+GS too, which were handily defeated by a celeron and geforce...

 

[Doom_Bringer]

They spent years and billions on the EE+GS too, which was handily defeated by a celeron and geforce...

cell was much more expensive, Sony was the driving force behind it.

anyway i dont care about this tech stuff. the games will speak for themselves...

 

[xexex]

They spent years and billions on the EE+GS too, which were handily defeated by a celeron and geforce...

:lol

 

[Suikoguy]

They spent years and billions on the EE+GS too, which were handily defeated by a celeron and geforce...

And a year of time

 

[Kleegamefan]

And a 70 million unit gap in sales...

 

[Doom_Bringer]

And a 70 million unit gap in sales...

hes talking about performance of cpu and quality of graphics...

 

[Andy787]

The lack of MS actually coming out and trying to say their console is more powerful that makes it very easy to assume they realise its not.

Spoiler

I'm kidding! MS are just good guys that don't want to BS their customers, they just tell it like it is.

I think MS is placing too much emphasis on a 6-9month lead.

Heh. Yeah, that's how it read to me, too.

"Our view is basically: We've got a Ferrari. They've got a Ferrari," Gates said in a question-and-answer session Thursday.

Translation: "Our view is basically: please don't make us actually compare our console with theirs. Thanks. "

 

[Barnimal]

i really dont think theres gonna be a sizable difference. again arent the 360 games running on single cores right now? much like VF saturn to VF remix to VF2. learning the system will lead to a nice leap in power.

 

[Mrbob]

Yeah, like launching later than Sony and being more powerful really worked out for MS.....

Why not launch a little early? Not like they have much to lose anyway. This time MS is giving themselves a better chance to make more money.

 

[AniHawk]

Yeah, like launching later than Sony and being more powerful really worked out for MS.....

Why not launch a little early? Not like they have much to lose anyway. This time MS is giving themselves a better chance to make more money.

Well good for them. They could use it.

 

[Mrbob]

:lol :lol

Don't forget, the real next generation doesn't start until PS3 is out!

 

[sangreal]

The lack of MS actually coming out and trying to say their console is more powerful that makes it very easy to assume they realise its not.

I think that is pretty obvious. Is there anyone who thinks the 360 is more powerful than the PS3?

I think the 360 has some advantages, but overall its pretty clear to just about everyone the PS3 is more powerful.

 

[ypo]

wait wait wait, so they're are equally powerful now according to MS? So that must mean the PS3 got a great performance boost and MS got the insider info on that!!!

 

[sonycowboy]

I think that is pretty obvious. Is there anyone who thinks the 360 is more powerful than the PS3?

I think the 360 has some advantages, but overall its pretty clear to just about everyone the PS3 is more powerful.

Are you new here? :lol (note: that's rhetorical, as i know you're not )

There are many, many folks who will scream bloody murder if you dare say that PS3 has the obvious power edge. While the truth is certainly "we don't know", we've certainly heard an abundance of interviews by various media with devs, saying the PS3 has the raw power edge and none (other than Major Nelson's "analysis") that go the other way, that I'm aware of.

But, then again, we had people fight tooth and nail saying that if devs really harnessed the vector units and used the streaming texture methods to overcome the small VRAM, that the PS2 matched up with the Xbox as well.

 

[Barnimal]

this will be genesis and super nintendo all over again only CLOSER.

 

[Kleegamefan]

:lol :lol

Don't forget, the real next generation doesn't start until PS3 is out!

In Europe and Japan, you better believe that shit...

 

[sonycowboy]

this will be genesis and super nintendo all over again only CLOSER.

Even the best case scenarios for Microsoft for next gen don't paint that rosy of a picture. There are just so many things for Microsoft to overcome (bluntly put, a 40-1 deficit in Japan, a 5-1 deficit in the UK (will end up being 7-1), and a 3-1 deficit in the US).

I'm expecting Microsoft's market share to increase by a huge amount, as much as 300%, but it's not going to match the PS3's sales, IMO. Although, it will take until late 2007 (or slightly later) for the PS3 to overcome the 360's early lead.

 

[Mrbob]

In Europe and Japan, you better believe that shit...

I'd say the same is true for North America, too. We won't be seeing many true next gen games until developers can release them on PS3 and Xbox 360 at the same time.

I'm expecting Microsoft's market share to increase by a huge amount, as much as 300%, but it's not going to match the PS3's sales, IMO. Although, it will take until late 2007 (or slightly later) for the PS3 to overcome the 360's early lead.

No way. What did Actvision claim. 3.5 million Xbox and Xbox 360s sold until the end of March 2006? That is in the biggest Xbox territory too. PS3 launch next spring I expect the PS3 to be ahead worldwide by the end of 2006 if not early 2007.

 

[Barnimal]

Even the best case scenarios for Microsoft for next gen don't paint that rosy of a picture. There are just so many things for Microsoft to overcome (bluntly put, a 40-1 deficit in Japan, a 5-1 deficit in the UK (will end up being 7-1), and a 3-1 deficit in the US).

I'm expecting Microsoft's market share to increase by a huge amount, as much as 300%, but it's not going to match the PS3's sales, IMO. Although, it will take until late 2007 (or slightly later) for the PS3 to overcome the 360's early lead.

i equate the stiuation with MS in japan with the same thing sega faced in the US. spin this. Master system US=xbox in japan. new comer breaking into a market thats dominated by 1 major player. Genesis US=360 in japan??? a grasp of the industry after its first outing and a better understanding of what the territory likes. for sega in the US it was sports games. If MS can figure out what makes japan tick this time then they are good. hell even if they dont the US and EU have a solid xbox following. If MS plays their cards right in these 2 territories it may be enough help.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Aw....SCREW the multiplatform games (that are not called Resident Evil 5)....its all about the 1st and 2nd party games...


Forza 2

God of War 2

Halo 3

GT5



These predict these games will be what next gen are really about....

hell even if they dont the US and EU have a solid xbox following.

From the other thread:

http://forum.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=50718&page=2&pp=50

These are all numbers from Screen Digest, printed in MCV. Not the newest numbers, but since Europe-wide sales stats are so hard to come by, I thought I'd type them up.

Console Installed Bases(in Million units) - 3/31/05

PS 29.2
PS2 25.1
N64 5.9
DC 1.6
Xbox 5.2
GCN 3.9
GBA 8.0
GBAsp 7.4
NDS 0.3

European Sell-Thru Change 2004 vs 2003

PS2 -9%
Xbox +7%
GCN -23%
Total -9%

Market Size Rankings (2004)

(1) UK
(2) Spain
(3) France
(4) Germany
(5) Italy
(6) Scandinavia

A few updates as of May 2005, from Screen Digest:

Hardware numbers discussion
-------------------------------------
PS2 up 35% vs 2004
Xbox down 2% vs 2004
GCN down 11% vs 2004
Overall consoles up 21% vs 2004

Installed bases
--------------------------------------
PS2 25.7M
Xbox 5.4M
GCN 4.0M
GBA 15.9M

It seems Europe is Sonyland....overall, the situation mirrors Japan pretty much...


I too, was under the impression the Xbox brand was doing better in EU....

 

[Mrbob]

Aw....SCREW the multiplatform games (that are not called Resident Evil 5)....its all about the 1st and 2nd party games...


Forza 2

God of War 2

Halo 3

GT5



These predict these games will be what next gen are really about....

I agree. But it puts the Xbox 360 in a strange position. One the PS3 won't have to deal with. The perception of not being as powerful as the system is.....it is the one drawback to launching before the market leader says it is time for the next generation to start.

I think EA Xbox 360 games will be hot, too. They've been planning for next gen for awhile, now. But I don't think they'll bring in too many new buyers as Playstation fans will just hold out for the PS3 version. BTW PS3 Madden 07 can have some key advantages too. One, if EA uses Blu Ray they can pack a ton of extra NFL Films videos on the disc as cool extras. Two the PS3 version may hook up with the PSP version to spawn franchise games.

 

[Barnimal]

i dont think the whole "in europe and japan" thing plays out at all this coming gen. it is BENEFICIAL to devs to learn the 360 as best they can to take advantage of multicore programming. whats the use of waiting for ps3? WASTED DEV TIME, WASTED LEARNING TIME. what you think ps3 will come along and *poof* devs will instantly know ow to program for a multi core console? NO! they'd still be stuck programming for a single core and trying to grasp the concept of learning to break the system. the better the learn on the 360, the better it'll be for MS and the better it will be for sony as well because devs will now understand BOTH systems from what they learned working with the 360.

 

[Doom_Bringer]

i dont think the whole "in europe and japan" thing plays out at all this coming gen. it is BENEFICIAL to devs to learn the 360 as best they can to take advantage of multicore programming. whats the use of waiting for ps3? WASTED DEV TIME, WASTED LEARNING TIME. what you think ps3 will come along and *poof* devs will instantly know ow to program for a multi core console? NO! they'd still be stuck programming for a single core and trying to grasp the concept of learning to break the system. the better the learn on the 360, the better it'll be for MS and the better it will be for sony as well because devs will now understand BOTH systems from what they learned working with the 360.

Good PS2 developers won't have any problems with PS3 development IMO. EE is multicore too, it has two vector units and devs who exploited those should have little problems with PS3.

 

[TheInkyVoid]

300%?

Not going to happen. You don't get marketshare increases for just showing up.

You either land the system selling exclusives that make consumers go out and buy your system or you don't. MS has virtually the same set of developers and IP that they had for this console cycle. The vast, vast majority of console gamers do not go out and buy a new console just because it goes on sale. For most console buyers at 300 dollar plus item is a once in a few year purchase. They always have, will continue to, wait for the machine that plays the games they want.

MS right now better be focused on shoring up their base supporters. They have a console launch that is self destructing. MS can forget about attracting PS2 and GameCube owners going out and buying the 360 and they are going to be lucky to retain a majority of their current xbox owners. Xbox owners all over the net are talking about either canceling their pre-orders or holding off on the the 360 if the second HD-DVD 360 version rumors are true. No one wants to be stuck with a gimped piece of hardware that is rushed out the door.

 

[sangreal]

No way. What did Actvision claim. 3.5 million Xbox and Xbox 360s sold until the end of March 2006?

No, where did you get that idea? That was for CY 2005

Also, its based on their expectation that the 360 will have severe shortages like the ps2

 

[Zaptruder]

Ferrari Team America vs Ferrari F1GP Racer...

 

[Barnimal]

Good PS2 developers won't have any problems with PS3 development IMO. EE is multicore too, it has two vector units and devs who exploited those should have little problems with PS3.

i dont buy that. there was never any HUGE jump in PS2 graphic quality IMO. more polys maybe but i doubt that say something like gt3 was running on 1 vector unit and gt4 is running on all cylinders.

 

[krypt0nian]

MS right now better be focused on shoring up their base supporters. They have a console launch that is self destructing. MS can forget about attracting PS2 and GameCube owners going out and buying the 360 and they are going to be lucky to retain a majority of their current xbox owners. Xbox owners all over the net are talking about either canceling their pre-orders or holding off on the the 360 if the second HD-DVD 360 version rumors are true. No one wants to be stuck with a gimped piece of hardware that is rushed out the door.

Now this is a man with beliefs!

 

[Striek]

I think that is pretty obvious. Is there anyone who thinks the 360 is more powerful than the PS3?

No (well...yes) but there are PLENTY of people who will go batshit insane if you try to say that they aren't "so incredibly close that it won't make a difference".

 

[Doom_Bringer]

i dont buy that. there was never any HUGE jump in PS2 graphic quality IMO. more polys maybe but i doubt that say something like gt3 was running on 1 vector unit and gt4 is running on all cylinders.

Burount 1 > Burnout 3 was a huge jump
Kinitica > God of War was a huge jump
Silent Hill 2 > Silent 3 was pretty big
ZOE 1 > ZOE 2 was big as well

I am sure the others can find more examples but Black will be the biggest IMO. The game sounds like it pushes PS2 to the max

 

[JadedGamer]

I beleive MS will be in the drivers seat next gen. So far they are doing just about everything right.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Drivers seat??

When the dust has all settled, Sony will have the biggest next-gen userbase in all 3 major territories, and you can quote me on that...

 

[Barnimal]

300%?

Not going to happen. You don't get marketshare increases for just showing up.

You either land the system selling exclusives that make consumers go out and buy your system or you don't. MS has virtually the same set of developers and IP that they had for this console cycle. The vast, vast majority of console gamers do not go out and buy a new console just because it goes on sale. For most console buyers at 300 dollar plus item is a once in a few year purchase. They always have, will continue to, wait for the machine that plays the games they want.

theres 1 thing you are forgetting. MS was the laughing stock that never had a chance in hell at breaking the market. xbrick? xflop? they had NO CHANCE against nintendo and sony and people PAYING for an online service? :lol wasnt that a JOKE? Look at them now. they have mindshare. They have become a real player in the industry and silenced a hell of alot of people while doing so.


"Burount 1 > Burnout 3 was a huge jump
Kinitica > God of War was a huge jump
Silent Hill 2 > Silent 3 was pretty big
ZOE 1 > ZOE 2 was big as well"

eh. it all comes down to effects. there was nothing WOW within those jumps. just natural progression. no jump like saturns VF to VF2 imo. nothing like Daytona to daytona CCE. all IMO ofcourse. black may do it but i think xbox has something to do with developers wanting to push the PS2 like they have been.

 

[Speevy]

300%?

Not going to happen. You don't get marketshare increases for just showing up.

You either land the system selling exclusives that make consumers go out and buy your system or you don't. MS has virtually the same set of developers and IP that they had for this console cycle. The vast, vast majority of console gamers do not go out and buy a new console just because it goes on sale. For most console buyers at 300 dollar plus item is a once in a few year purchase. They always have, will continue to, wait for the machine that plays the games they want.

MS right now better be focused on shoring up their base supporters. They have a console launch that is self destructing. MS can forget about attracting PS2 and GameCube owners going out and buying the 360 and they are going to be lucky to retain a majority of their current xbox owners. Xbox owners all over the net are talking about either canceling their pre-orders or holding off on the the 360 if the second HD-DVD 360 version rumors are true. No one wants to be stuck with a gimped piece of hardware that is rushed out the door.

You read too many forum posts.

 

[sonycowboy]

No, where did you get that idea? That was for CY 2005

Also, its based on their expectation that the 360 will have severe shortages like the ps2

No, that's assuming that the 360 has supply constrains like Sony did. You are taking Activision's general comments regarding supply constraint and making an incorrect assumption that they're assuming it would play out the same way. In the context of the question asked, it's pretty clear what they were talking about.

 

[JadedGamer]

Drivers seat??

When the dust has all settled, Sony will have the biggest next-gen userbase in all 3 major territories, and you can quote me on that...

Its easy to say something like that when they sold 3X more than the other consoles this gen. But no one can predict how the next gen will turn out. I can just as easily say MS will come out on top in the end...

 

[NotMSRP]

Driver seat of one of those learn-how-to-drive cars where the real driver seat is the passenger seat where the instructor sits with his or her foot ready on the breaks and hands on the steering wheel.

 

[sangreal]

No, that's assuming that the 360 has supply constrains like Sony did. You are taking Activision's general comments regarding supply constraint and making an incorrect assumption that they're assuming it would play out the same way. In the context of the question asked, it's pretty clear what they were talking about.

Question: What are your expectations for supply for xbox 360 for the US and Europe in terms of hardware production?

Answer: On the Xbox 360, we are planning on pretty modest hardware availability, the sort of order of magnitude of the playstation 2 launch is the basis of our planning.

 

[Striek]

theres 1 thing you are forgetting. MS was the laughing stock that never had a chance in hell at breaking the market. xbrick? xflop? they had NO CHANCE against nintendo and sony and people PAYING for an online service? :lol wasnt that a JOKE? Look at them now. they have mindshare. They have become a real player in the industry and silenced a hell of alot of people while doing so.

Yeah they done what alot of people thought they couldn't. They cracked the market.
But in the end they basically split Nintendos marketshare.
And it all comes down to 3 things:
1) Power advantage, this was the #1 reason ANYONE got an Xbox over PS2 (at least around here) for the first couple of years
2) Nintendos stupidity, theres a long list including; connectivity, no online, purple cube etc.
3) LIVE

Now of course they have a quality stable of franchises and exclusives so next-gen should be a lot easier...
Edited; for um, clarity

 

[sonycowboy]

300%?

Not going to happen. You don't get marketshare increases for just showing up.

You either land the system selling exclusives that make consumers go out and buy your system or you don't. MS has virtually the same set of developers and IP that they had for this console cycle. The vast, vast majority of console gamers do not go out and buy a new console just because it goes on sale. For most console buyers at 300 dollar plus item is a once in a few year purchase. They always have, will continue to, wait for the machine that plays the games they want.

I agree somewhat.

My 300% is on the very high end for Microsoft ~60M hardware units (not saying it couldn't be higher). Honestly, I don't expect them to hit that unless ALOT of things change. But, Microsoft is making things change. Japanese support & first launch being the primary ones.

I disagree with your statement that they're in the same place as last gen. The two factor I've already listed debunk that.

 

[TheInkyVoid]

theres 1 thing you are forgetting. MS was the laughing stock that never had a chance in hell at breaking the market. xbrick? xflop? they had NO CHANCE against nintendo and sony and people PAYING for an online service? :lol wasnt that a JOKE? Look at them now. they have mindshare. They have become a real player in the industry and silenced a hell of alot of people while doing so.

Player?
Mindshare?

I guess that is what you talk about when you blew four to five billion for a tie for last place.

Five years ago those of us working in the console biz said to each other that MS would lose billions just to keep themselves alive in the console market with the bulk of their exclusive support coming from peecee dev houses.

Boy were we silenced by MS...