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Microsoft sees Xbox 360 in driver's seat
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
Chiggs
Member
Kleegamefan said:
When the dust has all settled, Sony will have the biggest next-gen userbase in all 3 major territories, and you can quote me on that...
-- Kleegamefan
bitwise said:
Oh, you didn't get the memo? You see, everyone here is an industry insider, which is why this site is often cited as a source; much like how we quote Beyond3D all the time because they're all technologically savvy.
sonycowboy
Member
sangreal said:
Order of magnitude <> same quantity. Shortage is a factor of demand, not supply. That is, the 360 will likely have a massive shortage this year because supply will not meet demand.
Kleegamefan
K. LEE GAIDEN
JadedGamer said:
Just to use EU as example, for that to happen, MS would have to convince some 55M PS2 and PSOne users that they don't need a PS3 that plays all their game and is just as powerful as X360 (at minimum)....
I think it would be much easier if the Xbox brand had some momentum, but as you can see by the sales numbers, Sony's lead is INCREASING, not decreasing in EU.....
So you are telling me, you are going to get people the people in EU that bought 30M PSOnes and 25M PS2s and only 5M Xboxen to *not* buy PS3 and buy X360 instead...
That trend would change if those people are unhappy with the PlayStation brand....
No evidence of that, though...
TheInkyVoid said:
Assuming your competition sells exactly the same thing, and so do you. (which is the very least we can presume at this point) launching first means EXACTLY that.
The definition of a system-selling exclusive changes from generation to generation. You don't know that Gears of War, the new Killzone, or Motorstorm isn't such a game.
And more. Watch.
The Gamecube, now bombing in every region, was a very hot item at launch. No killer exclusives for the system either. Most launch systems sell very well, especially those from a now established brand like the Xbox.
Couldn't agree more. And again, what are the games they want? I think the reason the Playstation has been successful is because it has 1,000+ games, and having that ensures that a 300 dollar purchase will lead to those games. Now gamers know exactly what to expect from a console called Xbox, and MS is giving them just that, but even better.
Yes, it's an epidemic. :lol
TheInkyVoid said:
how big of a lead did sony have over MS? oh. What experience did MS have in the console biz? Hm... What experience did ms, an AMERICAN company have with JAPANESE gamers? errrmmm... they have used xbox and their learning tool, did a damn good job in doing that and what they are doing with the 360 shows that they are taking what they have learned and using it. you cant put a price on experience.
Not the same, but similar. Otherwise please clarify.
sonycowboy said:
I'm aware of what a shortage is. They could produce 100 million units and still have a shortage. I don't see what you are disputing, however. I consider it a given that demand will be high and sales will likely be supply constrained, like nearly every console launch (unless MS is able to produce a huge amount of 360s in time for launch, which Activision doesn't seem to expect).
krypt0nian
Banned
TheInkyVoid said:
You are now my official INSANE POSTER to watch. Can you get me into X05? :lol
Guy LeDouche
Banned
agreed 100%. I'm a Sony fan but I really don't care who wins. I bought 2 Xboxes this gen and 2 PS2s. MS, the queen whore of all tech whore companies, (a) not explicitly saying they are the best, (2) downplaying power advantages of the competition and (d) pinning their hopes to a 6-9 month lead when its been proven time and again that relatively brief leadtimes have little effect on marketshare, says it all. The X360 will still sell significantly better than the X180, but it really won't matter. I'd guess that they only take more of Nintendo's share than anything.Striek said:
That said, I'm looking forward to getting both consoles.
lol nintendo lol
sonycowboy
Member
While the bragging rights are fun for this forum, the simple truth is that both will be successful next generation and it will not be a one sided affair for the first time in a LOOONG time.
Most other market's don't have 1 winner and all the rest losers. It's simply a matter of market share and someone's going to have the most and someone's going to have the least.
Sony isn't number one in the movie industry, are they going to quit it? Hell, no. It makes them damn good money. They're also no longer #1 in the TV industry, but they ain't leaving that either.
I expect Sony & Microsoft to likely be dueling it out for the quite a while.
Most other market's don't have 1 winner and all the rest losers. It's simply a matter of market share and someone's going to have the most and someone's going to have the least.
Sony isn't number one in the movie industry, are they going to quit it? Hell, no. It makes them damn good money. They're also no longer #1 in the TV industry, but they ain't leaving that either.
I expect Sony & Microsoft to likely be dueling it out for the quite a while.
TheInkyVoid
Member
Speevy said:
This is hilarious.
The GC and xbox are virtually tied in worldwide marketshare.
I guess the xbox is bombing too, right?
jaundicejuice
Member
Bill Gates and crew polishing their own knobs? I'm shocked. :^)
Did you happen to catch Gamecube sales for...I dunno...2004-present? The Xbox has slowed down, but at least the system has kept software and hardware sales up to a consistently respectable level. When you think about the biggest game for a given month sells ~20-30K copies in the US, that's not the Xbox.
Plus, all the popular multiplatform games have been successful on the Xbox. Not true of Gamecube.
The Xbox gained developer support. The Gamecube lost most of it.
I mean really, there's almost no reasonable measure by which you could call the two systems equals, aside from the close worldwide numbers. But even then, you'd have to factor in total software sales.
TheInkyVoid
Member
sonycowboy said:
Oh please.
Other than just something one writes to make onself sound like a reasonable person, what exactly do you have to support such a MASSIVE swing in marketshare.
You are talking about tens of millions of people going out and buying 360s and tens of millions of people not going out and buying PS3s. There has to a reason for such a dramatic change in consumer prefrence. Amorphous talk of 'mindshare' or 'brand building' mean nothing. There has to be a reason that tens of millions of consumers are going to go out and buy a 360 who didn't buy the first xbox.
This is just like five years ago hearing MS fans saying the xbox was going to destroy the PS2 because "Bill always gets what he wants"
What new exclusive IP does MS have now for the 360 that they didn't for the first xbox?
What exactly about the 360 is there that will get tens of millions of people to go out and buy it where they didn't buy the first xbox?
MightyHedgehog
Member
sonycowboy said:
*thumbs up*
TheInkyVoid
Member
Speevy said:
Yes, it is unreasonable to use worldwide installed base numbers as a metric...
Hilarious.
The xbox has ~20 million units out there, but they are a STRONG 20 million.
The GC has ~20 million units out there, but they are a WEAK 20 million.
Nintendo is teh doomed!
krypt0nian
Banned
TheInkyVoid said:
Was Microsoft ever on top of this industry? The fact that it tied/beat Nintendo in its own game is beyond STRONG/WEAK. Its industry changing.
TheInkyVoid said:
I like how you put the "~" there to make 'em look equal!
Pretty shady...but I give it a 8/10 on the fanboyometer. I give out an 8 because it makes your favourite corporation look more competitive than it really is. You should become an accountant for a large corporation.
Norse
Member
why are we even talking about this when we dont know what each of the new consoles prices will be? And will the ps3 get nerfed any more before they launch it due to costs? What if the x60 ends up having a full year head start instead of the estimated 6-9 month? what if x360 ends up having just 6 games ready for launch? What if MS pries the x360 at 199.99 at launch? what if its 399? hd-dvd drive or not?
just way too many ifs out there to even think about any of this crap. Once a price is announced for even 1 of the systems and then maybe we might be able to dig into this a bit. Until then, just wasted thread pages.
just way too many ifs out there to even think about any of this crap. Once a price is announced for even 1 of the systems and then maybe we might be able to dig into this a bit. Until then, just wasted thread pages.
krypt0nian
Banned
Link said:
Not sure who this is replying to, but why should anyone care how much $ was spent? The result is the result.
Nintendo has vast cash resources but chooses to let Yamamuchi roll naked in it rather than spend any of it to gain ground in the industry it once literally owned.
what company DOESNT lose billions starting something new? auto manufacturers spend billions building ONE factory to build new cars. You dont see ford fans saying HAW HAW TOYOTA SPENT 3 BILLION ON A NEW PLANT AND THEY HAVENT BUILT ANY CARS YET!!! ZOMGWTF DOOMED. its called an investment.
Roland Hood
Member
Where's Dennis580 when you need him?
krypt0nian
Banned
BirdySky said:
The Xbox will be victorious inspite of the advancing Playstation. We are...Oh wait we lost. Never mind. Heh, good timing though huh? Huh? I could be a comedian. Huh? Huh?
Totally devoid of teh funny.
hukasmokincaterpillar
Member
Barnimal said:
Ehhh?
Did you type really fast or something? I think you forgot to make sense.
hukasmokincaterpillar said:
ok. not like its gonna happen this way BUT if devs are waiting for the ps3 "cuz its morepowerful"....
devs port shit to x360 not taking advantage of the hardware because ps3 is coming
ps3 gets here and since they waited on the ps3 instead of learning multi core programing for consoles with the 360 they now have to start from scratch with the ps3
instead of kicking out some cool games on 360 with what they've learned thus making money THEN turning around and kicking out more cool games without wasting time figuring out multi core with the ps3 as well...they would have sat thru a year of learning time and profit making doing NOTHING and also wasting even more time trying to find the "next generation" with the ps3 when it was already there with the 360 all along.
"I hear most lemonade stands only go thirty bucks or so in the red before pulling themselves up."
hmmm...MS is in the red? i seeeeeeee.
"Industry changing" started two generations before MS even took an interest in the console market when Sega managed to temporarily reverse their fortunes long enough for the Genesis to almost match the SNES for marketshare, then Sony pressed the advantage further leaving Nintendo with significantly reduced marketshare by the time MS decided to jump in. By the time MS arrived, the industry changing had already occurred.krypt0nian said:
Of course, in a more general sense, MS entering the console market is industry changing by itself. Loophole!
Yes, and if they've planned and prepared smartly with their investments they should then see a RETURN on those investments, preferably in amounts significantly larger than the initial investments and in a more timely fashion than the ROI that MS is still waiting for...Barnimal said:
hukasmokincaterpillar
Member
Barnimal said:
I was just busting your chops a bit but I dont think Im following you, I kinda skimmed through the thread and I may be taking you out of context. But where does this "lost learning time" stuff come from? Sony's dev kits are already out. PS3 development is underway. Where's this potential stall you're inferring?
Also, the differences between coding for Cell and XeCPU are likely to be pronounced in the long run. Just because they're both multicore doesn't make them exactly similar architectures. It'll be the top of the line 1st/2nd party devs, and the rare 3rd party exclusive that gets the most out of these machines anyway. Thats usually the case with consoles. But next gen the gap for software coded specifically for the hardware compared to the majority of multiplat titles could be as dramatic as its ever been, as far as overall complexity is concerned.
This gen, neither MS nor Nin has matched the userbase of the N64. And that was (as Cypress Hill would say) a certified bomb. It got clowned by the PS1 100-30. MS and Nin are in the low-20's right now to Sony's 90M. Even in the US, it's gonna end up being over 3:1 in favor of Sony. Some of you are underestimating the importance of marketshare and mindshare in this business. As KLee noted, the gap is only widening. MS's bullshit about Sony's lead is just that, bullshit. When MS came into the game, the margin was A LOT closer than it is now. Sony is stretching the lead, and by the end of it, will have outsold each of those systems by more than 4:1. That is a killing. A beatdown by every possible definition. Yet, the Xbox is considered a success. If you want to say the 360 will be a success, that's one thing. If you expect them to stave off the root down that's coming to them from the PS3, then you either expect Sony to make a major blunder, or you're in denial. Hey, you can quote me on that too. :lol Seriously, momentum, marketshare and mindshare are all on Sony's side. As long as they don't price themselves into a recession, they've got this next-gen on lock. And that's not fanboyism, that's just the damn truth. PEACE.
psycho_snake
I went to WAGs boutique and all I got was a sniff
I couldn't care less about which console is more powerful than the other. Xbox and GC are more powerful than PS2, but I've enjoyed playing on my PS2 much more then I have enjoyed playing on an Xbox or my GC because there are so many great games on PS2. At the end of the day, the reason people buy consoles is because of the games available. Its no good to either company to have a powerful console and no quality games. MS have realised the importance of that this time. They seem to have a few very good games in development, such as Gears of War, Ninja gaiden 2 and PGR3 and they have released before Sony to give themselves a head start, which is as Bill gates said, a very nice thing. Sony wqont gain much from having a powerful console, and Xbox is proof of that. If MS can get a good selection of launch titles and keep advertising future games, then they can gain a good lead before PS3 comes out. This time round, things will be much closer, but Sony have so many well known exclusive games under their belt that it will make it very difficult for MS to keep up with Sony.
To overcome Sony worldwide, MS will need several franchises that are equally popular in the three big territories(NA, Europe, Asia). Something like GT and Final Fantasy, which sells tons of copies in at least two territories. Right now MS' biggest franchise, Halo, is only hugely popular in NA. Can Forza 2 and Lost Odyssey sell worldwide like GT and FF? MS should hope so.
Suburban Cowboy
Member
I just can't see how Sony wont win. They have the japanese support, the user base, the power and the name.
The name "Playstation" today has the same recognition as the name "Nintendo" had 10-15 years ago. It is the defining label of the industry. (IE the phrase "Im gonna go play some playstation" is heard all the time in movies and tv just as the name Nintendo was used before it)
In my opinion Sony will have to fuck up pretty bad in order for MS to take 1st in the industry, no matter what fucking ferrari they're driving
The name "Playstation" today has the same recognition as the name "Nintendo" had 10-15 years ago. It is the defining label of the industry. (IE the phrase "Im gonna go play some playstation" is heard all the time in movies and tv just as the name Nintendo was used before it)
In my opinion Sony will have to fuck up pretty bad in order for MS to take 1st in the industry, no matter what fucking ferrari they're driving
